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The collapse of a 30-year ruling coalition in Tokyo

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October 11th marked a historic day in Japanese politics.

In a press conference, Komeito’s current leader, Saito Tetsuo, announced that his party would no longer be part of the ruling coalition, ending its stable and loyal 26-year partnership with the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). Saito also declared that Komeito would henceforth terminate its electoral cooperation with the LDP. This signifies a major shift in Japan’s political landscape, given the interconnectedness of Komeito and the LDP. However, he emphasized that cooperation on an issue-by-issue basis in parliament would still be possible and that his party did not aim to become an outright opponent of the LDP. In short, the LDP-Komeito coalition, which governed Japan from 1999-2009 and again from 2012, has officially come to an end.

This coalition was arguably the structure that has shaped Japanese politics for the last thirty years.

After the LDP lost power in the early 1990s, turning to Komeito to ensure stability in a challenging political environment was a natural move. Since then, it evolved into a political fortress as a stable and enduring alliance. In essence, those familiar with Japanese politics could conclude that the LDP and Komeito were governing the country together. They secured a majority in the Diet [the Japanese parliament]. This was also how things worked during the Shinzo Abe era in the 2010s. Despite being a conservative, Shinzo Abe maintained the coalition through his personal relationships and carefully crafted policy compromises that always required Komeito’s approval, or at least its acquiescence. Komeito, in turn, set its own conditions, and the LDP-Komeito partnership thrived. It was an almost flawless political machine.

For the last thirty years, the LDP and Komeito have consistently held over 60% of the seats in the House of Representatives, the more powerful of the two houses of the Japanese Diet. However, this dominance does not reflect their actual strength in terms of votes; Japan’s electoral system, with its LDP-dominated single-member districts, rewards such coalitions.

How did the coalition work?

The coalition essentially operated as a two-way system: First, the LDP’s strength traditionally lay in Japan’s single-member districts. Komeito was active on the ground, supporting LDP candidates through Buddhist organizations like Soka Gakkai, delivering an estimated 20,000 votes per district.

Second, Komeito focused on a limited number of single-member districts where an LDP candidate did not run, traditionally in urban areas like Tokyo or the Kansai region (mostly Osaka and Hyogo). The party concentrated its full power on the proportional representation vote, where its true base lies. It was a mechanism that worked on the ground for the LDP.

However, it is a known fact in Japanese politics that there has always been a degree of skepticism towards Komeito within LDP conservative circles. This stems partly from the party’s links to the Buddhist organization Soka Gakkai, and partly from criticism of Komeito’s socially moderate stances on issues like same-sex marriage, the policy on separate surnames [for married couples], or defense spending. Furthermore, Komeito’s traditionally close relationship with China also fuels this skepticism.

All of this has now come to the surface and finally fractured.

In the nineties and 2000s, these policy differences were not very significant, or at least they were set aside by the LDP and its leaders, who saw Komeito as a reliable partner with whom they could govern Japan. Together, they governed by consensus. They were successful. But last week, the coalition reached its breaking point.

It appears there were two fundamental points of disagreement that led the party to part ways with the LDP:

The first major reason is that Sanae Takaichi’s right-wing policy stances, and perhaps more importantly, her style and tone, were not well-received by Komeito. Komeito worked with Abe, and they had many disagreements, but it’s important to remember the significant nuances between Abe and Takaichi. Abe learned his lessons after his failed first term in 2007 and, in his second term, pivoted to economic policies, reassuring Komeito that the government would not shift too far to the right.

The second point of contention is the “seiji to kane” (politics and money) scandals that have plagued the LDP in recent years. Komeito may have felt it could no longer justify remaining in a coalition with a party that it believed was not taking real steps toward reform and was continuing the same political behavior that Japanese voters have punished in every election for the past five years.

And then there is the role of personal ties. The Japanese press reports that Sanae Takaichi has almost no relationship with Komeito and has formed a leadership team within the LDP dominated by conservatives who feel little affinity for Komeito. One of them is former Prime Minister Aso Taro, who has become the “cloistered emperor” [a term referencing a powerful figure ruling from behind the scenes] guiding Takaichi through the treacherous waters of Japanese politics.

So, what is expected to happen next?

The Japanese Diet must vote for a new prime minister in the coming days. The initial date was already postponed, as Sanae Takaichi may not currently have enough votes to secure the position.

But today, the Japanese government decided to convene an extraordinary session of the Diet on October 21st. Parliamentary sources said the session is expected to hold a vote to elect the next prime minister.

To become prime minister, a candidate needs to win a majority in both houses of the Diet. The problem is that the LDP does not have an absolute majority on its own, not even in the first round—and that was with Komeito. Now that the coalition has dissolved, this gap has widened even further, threatening to lead the LDP to failure.

If no candidate secures a majority, the vote goes to a second round between the two leading candidates, and this time the LDP will enter the run-off alone.

The LDP remains the largest party in the House of Representatives, and Sanae Takaichi could become Japan’s first female prime minister! We shall see.

However, the opposition is still in disarray. The Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDPJ), Japan’s largest opposition party, is trying to persuade two right-leaning opposition parties, the Democratic Party for the People (DPFP) and Ishin no Kai, to agree on a common candidate. On the other hand, the CDPJ is also trying to coordinate with smaller left-wing parties like the Communists, Social Democrats, and Reiwa.

What will Komeito do?

Leader Saito Tetsuo stated that the party would vote for him (their own leader) in the first round but did not disclose what they would do in a potential second round, leaving the balance of power in the Diet completely uncertain.

Komeito’s closing message was as follows:

“To revive politics for the people and to restore public trust, Komeito will take the lead and move forward. We express our gratitude for our past partnership with the LDP, and we part with a handshake.”

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China launches patrols east of Taiwan after Japan and Philippines open maritime boundary talks

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01/06/2026

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Beijing said it had conducted law enforcement patrols in waters east of Taiwan in response to a decision by Japan and the Philippines to launch talks on maritime boundary delimitation.

According to a statement from the China Coast Guard, a flotilla led by the vessel Daishan carried out law enforcement patrols “in accordance with the law” on Monday.

China Coast Guard spokesperson Jiang Lue said the operation was “a necessary action” in response to Japan and the Philippines “unilaterally announcing the start of negotiations on maritime delimitation in waters east of China’s Taiwan Island.”

“Such an announcement seriously infringes upon China’s territorial sovereignty and its maritime rights and interests,” Jiang said.

“We urge Japan and the Philippines to immediately cease all illegal actions that violate China’s sovereignty and rights,” he added.

Jiang also said the coast guard would continue strengthening its control and management of the relevant waters and that China would take concrete measures to “resolutely safeguard territorial sovereignty and maritime rights and interests.”

The United States and most of its allies, including Japan and the Philippines, do not recognize Taiwan as an independent state and acknowledge it as part of China. The United Nations has also adopted resolutions reflecting this position. However, Washington continues to provide arms to Taiwan as part of its broader efforts to counter China and encourages its allies to do the same.

Following a summit in Tokyo between Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., the two countries said in a joint statement issued on Thursday that they had agreed to begin “formal negotiations” to delimit their exclusive economic zones (EEZs) and continental shelves.

Beijing condemned the planned talks as “completely illegal and invalid” and swiftly lodged formal diplomatic protests with both Tokyo and Manila.

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said on Friday: “The so-called delimitation negotiations are entirely illegal, invalid and void. They will have no impact whatsoever on China’s claims or on China’s exercise of its legitimate rights in the area east of Taiwan Island.”

The latest escalation comes at a time when relations between Beijing and both Tokyo and Manila are already strained. Japan and the Philippines are treaty allies of the United States, while China remains engaged in separate territorial disputes with Japan in the East China Sea and with the Philippines in the South China Sea.

As US attention and resources have increasingly shifted toward the war involving Iran, and as the White House has made the Western Hemisphere a strategic priority, Japan and the Philippines have stepped up diplomatic engagement in the region commonly referred to as the Indo-Pacific.

That effort has included building closer security and defence ties with other countries, prompting Beijing to accuse them of encouraging bloc confrontation in the region.

Japan and the Philippines do not share a maritime boundary. However, their seabed claims could overlap because both countries seek to extend their legal continental shelves beyond 200 nautical miles, equivalent to 370 kilometres or 230 miles.

The overlapping area lies east of Taiwan, southwest of Japan’s Ryukyu Islands and north of the Philippines’ Batanes Islands.

Yang Xiao, a researcher at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, China’s highest-ranking state-affiliated think tank, said Taiwan’s EEZ and continental shelf are part of the area under discussion.

“These are China’s rights and are not something that the two sides can negotiate among themselves,” Yang said.

In an interview published on Sunday by Yuyuan Tantian, a social media account affiliated with state broadcaster CCTV, before the China Coast Guard announced the patrols, Yang said Beijing would take “historic and unprecedented” countermeasures against Tokyo and Manila.

“Since they are negotiating in a three-party overlapping zone, we can also take further steps to advance our jurisdiction in the waters east of Taiwan,” Yang said.

“If the other side insists on reckless and destructive actions, we will inevitably introduce new countermeasures.”

Yang described the waters east of Taiwan as a vital maritime area for the island’s economic activities.

“If these waters are divided between Japan and the Philippines, that would clearly harm the interests of the people living on Taiwan Island,” he added.

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SoftBank overtakes Toyota to become Japan’s most valuable company

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01/06/2026

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As artificial intelligence reshapes industrial structures in Japan and South Korea, stock market rankings are being redrawn. SoftBank Group has overtaken Toyota Motor to become Japan’s most valuable listed company.

SoftBank shares have surged as the global artificial intelligence rally gathers momentum, lifting the technology conglomerate’s market capitalisation above that of Toyota for the first time in more than two decades.

The shift reflects a broader reordering of Japan’s equity market. Automakers, alongside banks, steelmakers, energy companies and other traditional heavy industries, are losing ground to chipmakers and companies linked to artificial intelligence.

SoftBank shares jumped 14% on Monday, reaching a new record high. The company’s market value climbed to 48 trillion yen, or $301 billion, making it the most valuable company listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange.

Toyota had long held the top position, with a market capitalisation of approximately 45 trillion yen. The last time SoftBank surpassed Toyota was in March 2000, at the peak of the dot-com bubble.

SoftBank’s rapid rise has been driven by strong earnings performance and its substantial investment in ChatGPT developer OpenAI.

The Japanese company reported net profit of 1.82 trillion yen, or $11.4 billion, for the first three months of 2026, 3.5 times higher than in the same period a year earlier. The group is also increasing its investment in OpenAI, completing a $10 billion investment in April and committing to invest an additional $20 billion later this year. Total investment is expected to reach roughly $65 billion.

According to The Wall Street Journal, OpenAI plans to file for an initial public offering and aims to list in the United States as early as September. Some media reports suggest the company could seek to raise $60 billion through the offering, potentially valuing it at more than $1 trillion. Such a transaction could become the largest initial public offering in history.

Investors expect the IPO to significantly boost SoftBank’s investment gains. Those expectations have helped drive the technology group’s share price higher. SoftBank shares have risen about 127% since early April.

The company is also planning to invest up to 14 trillion yen in the construction of data centres in France.

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China and Serbia agree to expand cooperation in emerging sectors

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26/05/2026

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Chinese President Xi Jinping met Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic in Beijing, where the two leaders discussed bilateral ties and oversaw the signing of multiple cooperation agreements. Xi also awarded Vucic the Friendship Medal of the People’s Republic of China.

The meeting between Xi Jinping and Aleksandar Vucic began with an official welcoming ceremony at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing.

The two leaders then proceeded to formal talks. Xi said China and Serbia had achieved “positive results” since jointly launching the construction of a “China-Serbia community with a shared future in the new era” in 2024.

Xi said the partnership had not only benefited the two peoples but had also set an example for international relations.

The Chinese president described relations between China and Serbia as an “iron friendship” based on deep historical ties and mutual trust.

Calling on both sides to strengthen exchanges, deepen practical cooperation and continue supporting each other on issues concerning their core interests, Xi also said the two countries should align their development strategies and advance cooperation under the Belt and Road Initiative. In this context, he pointed to transport, energy and infrastructure projects.

Xi also called for expanding cooperation in emerging sectors such as artificial intelligence, the digital economy, green energy and advanced manufacturing.

Aleksandar Vucic congratulated China on the start of implementation of its 15th Five-Year Plan. Vucic also expressed confidence in China’s future development under Xi Jinping’s leadership.

The Serbian president said Belgrade attached great importance to relations with China and firmly supported Beijing on issues concerning China’s core interests.

Vucic thanked Chinese companies for their contributions to Serbia’s economic development and infrastructure construction.

Saying the two countries had made notable progress since establishing their comprehensive strategic partnership, Vucic added that cooperation had expanded across numerous sectors.

The Serbian president also praised China’s role in international affairs, saying Beijing approached smaller countries on the basis of equality and respect and defended international law.

Following the talks, the two leaders witnessed the signing of more than 20 cooperation agreements covering politics, trade, science and technology, education, legal affairs and culture.

The two sides also issued joint statements on steadily advancing the construction of a China-Serbia community with a shared future in the new era and jointly supporting the implementation of four global initiatives.

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