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The Gaza war is far from over

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On October 15, the office of Israeli Defense Minister Katz threatened that if the Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) did not abide by the terms of the ceasefire, Israel would resume military operations. On the same day, U.S. President Trump declared that if Hamas did not disarm on its own, “we will disarm them.” What Israel meant was that after Hamas released, as agreed, the last 20 living detainees, it had not yet fully handed over the bodies of the deceased; what the United States meant was Hamas’s refusal to completely lay down its weapons in the future.

Israel’s demand is the first-phase goal of the U.S.–Israel side, while the U.S. demand is the second-phase claim of the U.S.–Israel side. Only one week after Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu together with Trump announced in Jerusalem that “the Gaza war has ended” and ostentatiously convened an “Egypt Peace Summit,” Trump impatiently slapped himself in the face, betrayed the promise of peace, prepared to restart the Gaza fighting, and even threatened to have U.S. forces take the field in person.

Israel has left heavy forces in Gaza ready to move, and it and Hamas accuse each other of not abiding by the first-phase terms of the ceasefire. Together with Trump’s show of force on Israel’s behalf, this indicates that the Gaza fighting, delayed for two years, is far from over.

These latest war remarks came one week after Trump missed out on the Nobel Peace Prize he longed for, fully proving that he has never been a lover, maker, or keeper of peace, but a fame-seeking and inconsistent war-monger, the absolute defender of Israel’s security interests, the supplier of ammunition and fuel to Israel’s war machine that ravages the Middle East, especially the Gaza Strip, and also the initiator of provoking conflict between the United States and Iran. Sincere thanks are due to the Nobel Peace Committee; it still has conscience and a bottom line and did not give the Peace Prize to this White House master who brags that he “ended seven wars.”

Trump is more eager than Netanyahu to disarm Hamas and has also let down Egyptian President Sisi’s award to him of the “Order of the Nile,” representing Egypt’s highest honor. Sisi’s “commendation” of Trump’s so-called peacemaking efforts now appears to have only paused the flames of war and allowed Hamas and Israel to complete the limited goal of a “prisoner exchange,” essentially bailing out the Netanyahu government. By getting back the surviving detainees and the bodies of the dead and easing domestic anti-war pressure, the Netanyahu government could in the second phase act against Hamas without scruple, set about completely eliminating Hamas’s armed forces, let Gaza once again sink into a sea of blood, and allow Palestinians to continue to suffer slaughter in a genocidal process in which 75,000 have died and nearly 200,000 have been maimed.

Trump’s latest war threat has also humiliated many leaders in the Western, Arab, and Islamic worlds who took the stage for him, supported him, and applauded, because the so-called Egypt Peace Summit was nothing but a “political catwalk.” Thankfully, calm observers all understand that the slogan “the Gaza war has ended” is only a pause mark at the two-year node since the outbreak of the “Sixth Middle East War,” a brief intermission in Gaza’s long war, a double act by Trump and Netanyahu: letting Israel use the prisoner-exchange opportunity to adjust military and readiness deployments, win more public support, and continue by means of war to eliminate a Hamas that insists on armed struggle or to leave room for a Hamas that surrenders and hands over its weapons, thereby completing the established strategic goals of “de-Hamasification, demilitarization, and de-extremization.”

In the coastal areas of the Gaza Strip where the Israeli occupation forces have slightly pulled back and somewhat loosened controls, Hamas resurfaced like an “indestructible cockroach” and took to the streets. Its armed members not only safely, orderly, and efficiently brought out from deeply concealed tunnels and returned the 20 living Israeli detainees and successively handed over nine bodies of the dead; they also began to restore comprehensive control over the Gaza Strip, demonstrating that they are the legitimate and sole rulers of this land of slaughter. These measures include but are not limited to: clearing the ruins of war, organizing the distribution of humanitarian supplies, ordering civilian armed groups to turn in their weapons, hunting down those who loot in times of chaos, publicly executing “traitors” who had cooperated with Israel, and even, on the pretext of settling accounts with “traitors,” wiping out new agents supported by Israel.

According to Xinhua News Agency, on October 16, Hamas representatives in Cairo discussed with Egyptian officials post-war security issues in the Gaza Strip and matters such as implementing a ceasefire agreement with Israel, including deploying 1,000 Palestinian security personnel who had been trained in Egypt and Jordan to maintain order in the Gaza Strip under the supervision of the Palestinian National Authority, as well as issues such as Hamas possibly withdrawing from Gaza’s security institutions and disarming in accordance with the U.S. “20-point plan.”

After the Trump administration introduced the “20-point plan” peace proposal and forced the Israeli government to accept it, Hamas, which was bearing all the pressure, announced very flexibly that it would cooperate immediately and stated that it would not seek to participate in the post-war governance of Gaza, but it resolutely refused to lay down its arms, saying this is a national right to resist illegal occupation. This alone means that Hamas and the United States and Israel have formed structural and irreconcilable contradictions, and it also means that the Gaza conflict will inevitably restart as the first phase of the ceasefire agreement ends, namely upon completion of the “prisoner exchange.” The heavily armed Israeli forces, which still control 53% of the Gaza Strip’s area, will launch a final general offensive against Hamas’s remaining forces, and may even receive assistance from U.S. troops.

At the beginning of the “Al-Aqsa Flood” sweeping Israel, Israel’s intelligence services estimated that Hamas had about 20,000 combatants. After two years of war, only then did the remaining Israelis held in detention regain freedom, and Hamas’s guerrilla warfare amid the ruins never ceased, indicating that Hamas still has a considerable force size and resilience; it can even be said that Israel has not completely destroyed Hamas’s labyrinthine tunnel-warfare system. According to reports, during this ceasefire Hamas mobilized as many as 7,000 armed personnel to maintain order in the streets, while how many fighters it actually has who can go into battle is likely difficult to grasp accurately even for Israel’s all-seeing intelligence services.

The chaotic state caused by “unknown enemy conditions,” the wartime pattern of Hamas hiding its forces among the people, and the ground form of “jungle warfare” with mountains of ruins all indicate that Israel’s future strategic general offensive against the Gaza Strip will be extremely brutal, meaning that Hamas—which dealt heavy blows to the “world’s fourth military power” and, within a limited airspace, confronted and maneuvered against it for two years to create a “military miracle” for a non-state actor—will face even more unrestrained, three-dimensional, annihilating strikes from Israel.

However, Hamas is not the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, which is based on secularism and nationalism and, after decades of bloody struggle, finally announced it would abandon the claim of national independence and was willing to surrender and disarm to the central government, because the Kurdish issue in Turkey is, after all, a domestic political issue, a minority-rights issue. Hamas, by contrast, is a legitimate resistance organization founded on the bases of theocracy and nationalism. It represents an occupied people whose ancestral land and generational lawful rights have been seized by an alien ethnicity through war and aggression, and it possesses a very strong anti-Israel public-opinion base and a cultural gene of resistance.

Therefore, since its establishment in 1987, sacrificing one’s life for religious faith and national rights has been the entire mission and reason for being of Hamas members. Over 38 years, few core Hamas cadres have clung to life or turned back to “seek” the shore, let alone defected or joined the enemy; on the contrary, most Hamas members have died for the cause, one after another. At the same time, Hamas’s public-opinion base has shifted from thin and marginal to solid and central; its strength has repeatedly been encircled and struck by Israel yet has grown larger the more it fights and stronger with each battle, with supporters and participants cut down in one crop only to grow back in the next.

For this reason, a “Hamas-ization” has appeared as a feature of the times in Palestinian society: in 2007 the Gaza Strip saw a change of regime and became “Hamastan”; the West Bank, which had long been the base and headquarters of the Palestinian National Liberation Movement (Fatah), has also come close to falling into Hamas’s hands; a certain Fatah cadre even turned to Hamas after leaving an Israeli prison; and Palestine has not held general elections for many years, one important reason being that every poll shows Hamas winning handily, while Fatah, the long-time competitor that has controlled the PLO for more than 40 years, cannot match it.

Even though the “Al-Aqsa Flood” attack brought an inhuman catastrophe to the Palestinians, especially in the Gaza Strip, Palestinians still do not believe that Hamas bears political and moral responsibility. On the contrary, Palestinians who identify with Hamas’s line and strategy still make up the majority, while Fatah, which advocates compromising with Israel and seeking negotiations to resolve disputes, remains at a disadvantage in public opinion.

Based on a comprehensive analysis of recent overseas sources and credible polling data, Palestinian public favorability toward the “Al-Aqsa Flood” attack and confidence that Hamas will win the war are both continuing to decline. But most still believe that the attack and the subsequent “Sixth Middle East War” made the Palestinian issue the focus of global attention. This precisely shows that this war is a political and public-opinion victory for Hamas and even for Palestine, won by Hamas through suicidal resistance and at the cost of the Palestinian people paying a “purgatorial calamity.”

Related polls show that the overwhelming majority of Palestinians oppose Hamas disarming, do not believe that releasing hostages can end the war, and even think Hamas will continue to control Gaza after the war. Even if in Gaza’s demonstrations supporters and opponents of Hamas are roughly half and half, most people believe outside forces are involved. Although Hamas’s popularity once dipped, Fatah has not become more popular. Palestinian support for the “two-state solution” has not changed, but in terms of means, armed struggle is declining and negotiation is rising, while armed struggle is still the preferred way to establish an independent State of Palestine.

Most Palestinians believe the United States and Israel bear primary responsibility for Gaza’s worsening humanitarian disaster. Palestinians who support the “Al-Aqsa Flood” attack do not necessarily mean they support Hamas, nor do they support any killings or atrocities against civilians. A slim majority of Palestinians want a ceasefire as soon as possible, and most still think Hamas is the winner and will yet prevail. The idea of deploying Arab security forces in Gaza to assist the Palestinian Authority’s security forces is opposed by nearly two-thirds of Palestinians.

Moreover, although Gazans have mixed feelings toward Hamas, the vast majority believe that releasing hostages and disarming Hamas will not necessarily bring Israeli withdrawal and peace, and therefore they oppose Hamas disarming or its military leaders leaving Gaza. Most importantly, although Palestinian satisfaction with Hamas continued to decline during the war, it is still clearly higher than satisfaction with the Palestinian Authority, Fatah, and its leader Abbas.

These complex Palestinian polling results show that even if Israel exhausts all its strength, it cannot eradicate Hamas unless it exterminates or expels all 2.3 million Palestinians in the Gaza Strip and 3.4 million in the West Bank. From this perspective, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict cannot be ended through violence and war, but only through a “two-state solution.”

On October 16, Palestinian Prime Minister Mustafa announced that Egypt would hold a Gaza reconstruction conference in November and said that restoring effective governance and administration of the Gaza Strip is very important. The key now is that the future of the Gaza Strip will be decided not by Egypt and the Palestinian National Authority, but by Israel, the United States, and Hamas. Before Hamas accepts demilitarization, war will be inevitable, because this concerns the survival of Israel’s coalition government and Netanyahu’s political future and even personal freedom.

If the claims by Trump and Netanyahu that “the Gaza war is over” do not count, and the Egypt Peace Summit witnessed by Trump and leaders of more than 20 other countries cannot guarantee peace in Gaza, then how can a Gaza reconstruction conference be convened, and even if convened, what could it achieve? (Researcher Li Xinggang of the Institute for Mediterranean Studies, Zhejiang International Studies University, also contributed to this article and is hereby thanked.)

Prof. Ma is the Dean of the Institute of Mediterranean Studies (ISMR) at Zhejiang International Studies University in Hangzhou. He specializes in international politics, particularly Islam and Middle Eastern affairs. He previously worked as a senior Xinhua correspondent in Kuwait, Palestine, and Iraq.

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A voice rising from New Delhi: BRICS’s manifesto for a new world order

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The BRICS Foreign Ministers’ Meeting, held in the Indian capital of New Delhi on May 15, 2026, carries a significance that extends far beyond the confines of routine diplomacy. This gathering culminated in the signing of one of the most comprehensive political documents to date, outlining the vision of the world order that BRICS envisions for 2026. Reading between the lines, the document reveals not merely the proceedings of a ministerial summit, but the contours of a comprehensive alternative vision challenging the Western-centric international system. Indeed, this text must be read as a political manifesto of the shifting balances of power, the accelerating global struggle for influence, and the emerging new world order of recent years.

The overarching theme dominating the entire document is “The Rise of the Global South.” BRICS members contend that the current international order is unjust, insufficiently representative, and fails to reflect the interests of developing nations. Consequently, they emphasize the urgent need to restructure foundational institutions such as the UN, IMF, World Bank, and the World Trade Organization (WTO). In doing so, BRICS now positions itself as the voice of the non-Western world. Today, the global arena is traversing an era in which the post-World War II international system has plunged into a profound crisis of legitimacy and representation. Developments such as the wars in Ukraine, Iran, and Lebanon, the Gaza crisis, global trade wars, the weaponization of sanctions, energy security challenges, and technological competition demonstrate that the current system struggles to mirror contemporary global realities. It is precisely from this premise that the BRICS nations operate, sending a clear message to the world through the New Delhi Outcome Document: “The status quo is no longer sustainable.”

One of the most striking aspects of the document is how clearly it demonstrates that BRICS no longer views itself as a mere platform for economic cooperation. Having long focused primarily on economic development, trade, and finance since its inception, BRICS has now reached a far more ambitious posture. In the New Delhi Outcome Document, issues of security, geopolitical crises, artificial intelligence, cybersecurity, climate policies, energy transition, and international governance reforms occupy a place as central as economics. This indicates that BRICS’s ambition to become a foundational actor in global politics is steadily gaining traction. Reading between the lines, the strongest emphasis emerges on the concept of a “multipolar world.” The core approach of BRICS is animated by the premise that the Western-centric, largely US-led international order, which took shape over the decades following the end of the Cold War, is no longer the sole alternative. Throughout the declaration, the repeated use of phrases like “more just,” “more representative,” “more democratic,” and “more inclusive” international system constitutes a direct critique of the current distribution of global power.

The sections concerning the reform of the United Nations Security Council are particularly critical. Indeed, the call for UN reform stands out as one of the most pivotal political segments of the document. BRICS nations explicitly state that the current structure fails to reflect contemporary realities. They contend that Africa, Latin America, and emerging Asian powers are underrepresented in decision-making mechanisms. What is even more remarkable is that China and Russia have reaffirmed their support for India and Brazil to assume greater roles within the Security Council. This state of affairs reveals, first and foremost, the elevation of India and Brazil to global-power status. Secondly, it demonstrates an increasing political cohesion within BRICS. Finally, it illustrates a fundamental questioning of the post-WWII international order.

Another prominent element in the document is the sharp critique of the sanctions policies pursued by the United States and the West. The intensive use of economic sanctions as a foreign policy tool in recent years has engendered collective discomfort among BRICS nations. The text emphasizes that unilateral sanctions violate international law and severely hamper the economic development of developing nations. Although no countries are named directly, this formulation can be read as a potent critique targeted at measures such as US sanctions on Iran, Russia, and Venezuela, as well as the embargo on Cuba. This approach is a continuation of BRICS’s long-standing critique regarding the “weaponization of economics.” Indeed, one of the most strategic segments of the declaration emerges here. For BRICS is no longer merely criticizing the existing financial architecture; it is actively endeavoring to construct alternative mechanisms. Initiatives such as cross-border payment systems, trade in local currencies, financial integration, and the strengthening of the New Development Bank can be read as harbingers of a long-term quest to forge an alternative to the dollar-centric global economic structure. While it is premature to speak of a system capable of fully displacing the dollar, the steps taken by BRICS are beginning to demonstrate that the current financial order is not the only option.

Another major political segment of the New Delhi Document concerns the Gaza and Palestine issue. Here, we witness one of the strongest stances BRICS has ever taken on the matter. The document employs highly resolute language regarding Gaza and Palestine, with a notable emphasis on an independent Palestinian state based on the 1967 borders. Furthermore, South Africa’s legal action against Israel and the rulings of the International Court of Justice are directly recalled in the text. In the face of recent offensives and the unfolding humanitarian crisis, BRICS nations have displayed one of their clearest collective stances to date. The call for an immediate ceasefire, the demand for unhindered humanitarian aid delivery, support for Palestinian statehood, and the emphasis on international law stand among the declaration’s most potent political messages. This can be interpreted as an indication of BRICS’s desire to become a more visible and effective political actor in global crises.

On the other hand, the text does not entirely gloss over the internal divergences within BRICS. It openly acknowledges that members hold differing views, particularly on Middle Eastern issues. This is significant because today’s BRICS is no longer a bloc comprised solely of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. With the integration of new members such as Iran, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Ethiopia, and Indonesia, it has evolved into a far more complex geopolitical entity. Interestingly, the document explicitly notes that rather than a unified stance, differing perspectives exist on certain issues. Specifically, it is conceded that members hold divergent positions on matters concerning Iran, the Gulf states, and Yemen. Despite these differences, the bloc’s ability to establish common ground demonstrates an expansion of BRICS’s diplomatic capacity. Viewed from this perspective, the New Delhi process also represents a significant diplomatic triumph for India. While the recent wave of expansion—bringing in Iran, the UAE, Egypt, Ethiopia, and Indonesia—has enriched the platform’s geopolitical diversity, it has also rendered collective decision-making processes more intricate. Particularly at a juncture where the war in Iran continues, the deep-seated divergences between Iran and the Gulf states led many experts to predict that BRICS would struggle to find common political ground and that the summit would be fraught with severe diplomatic friction. However, despite all these differences, India succeeded in rallying members with diverging interests and priorities around the same platform, proving that BRICS retains its capacity to generate dialogue rather than fracture. In this context, the outcome in New Delhi is not limited merely to the content of the published joint text. The true, striking success lies in the preservation of a diplomatic arena that enabled members—who find themselves directly opposed on certain issues in an extremely sensitive and polarized crisis environment—to compromise on other matters and continue negotiating under the BRICS umbrella.

Furthermore, one of the document’s most critical messages emerges in the realm of technology. The extensive coverage of topics such as artificial intelligence, digital infrastructure, data security, and cybersecurity is no coincidence. Indeed, the global power struggle of the future will be shaped heavily through technological supremacy. BRICS nations clearly demonstrate their awareness of this reality and their intent to act in unison in the technological race. Particularly noteworthy is their quest to develop alternatives to Western-centric norms in artificial intelligence governance. A distinct approach is also observed in energy and climate policies. Instead of the rapid energy transition frequently championed by Western nations, the concept of a “just energy transition” is prioritized. At the heart of this approach lies the conviction that the economic growth needs of developing nations must not be disregarded. BRICS countries advocate for a balance between environmental responsibility and the right to development. This points to a major fault line that will become increasingly pronounced in global climate debates in the coming years.

When all these headings are evaluated together, the resulting picture is remarkably clear: BRICS is no longer merely a platform for safeguarding economic interests. It is a center of power beginning to articulate its own vision of how the international system ought to operate. At the core of this vision lies the objective of greater representation, sovereign equality, deeper multipolarity, and a stronger voice for developing nations in global decision-making processes.

The New Delhi Document, brought to the table at the BRICS Foreign Ministers’ Meeting, is far more than a mere communique; it is one of the landmark texts of the historic transformation unfolding in global politics. As the world rapidly moves away from a unipolar structure, BRICS is emerging as one of the most powerful political and economic vehicles of this transition. Today, many rules of the international system may still be written by the West. Yet, the message rising from New Delhi is clear: far more actors now demand a seat at the table to rewrite those very rules. BRICS is transitioning from an economic club into a political, diplomatic, financial, and technological powerhouse. Its claim to serve as the collective voice and compass of the Global South is strengthening. It pursues a dual strategy: offering an alternative to Western-centric institutions while simultaneously working to transform them. BRICS is not yet establishing institutions to directly replace the UN, IMF, World Bank, or WTO; rather, it is striving to change the rules and the distribution of power within them.

The 2026 New Delhi Document of the Foreign Ministers’ Meeting, hosted by India under its presidency, can be regarded as one of the most comprehensive strategic documents in the twenty-year history of BRICS. The text serves as a political manifesto for an era marked by the sunset of the US- and Western-led unipolar epoch, the demands of rising powers for greater agency, and the accelerating quest of the Global South to establish a permanent weight in the international system.

The essence of the document can be distilled into a single sentence: while BRICS remains a platform that adapts to the rules of the existing international order, it is simultaneously transforming into a global actor that seeks to rewrite them.

Umur Tugay Yücel – Political Scientist & Author of the book “The Decline of American Power and the Rising Powers” (China-Russia-India-Brazil).

X: @umur_tugay

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NATO as the apparatus of aggression and occupation of US imperialism

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Contrary to what is written in its founding charter and press releases, or what its proponents claim, NATO is no ordinary defense and security organization. It is far more than that. It is a multidimensional, multifaceted organization driven by distinct ideological, political-economic, and class-based preferences. Moreover, as an organization born in the early stages of the Cold War, while its primary objective was ostensibly defined as “opposing the USSR and communism,” its actual function went far beyond this: it served as a mechanism to keep alliance members aligned with and under the control of the United States. Through NATO, the US has established immense influence not only over the defense, security, and foreign policies of member states, but also over their domestic politics, economic policies, educational institutions, universities, academia, think tanks, trade unions, and cultural industries.

As the apparatus of aggression and occupation of US imperialism, NATO launched its first out-of-area military operation in the mid-1990s in Bosnia and Herzegovina in the Balkans. This was followed by the intervention in Kosovo in 1999. In the Gulf War of 1990–1991, during the US assault on Iraq, NATO was not directly involved as an alliance or a corporate entity. Instead, there was a US-led coalition that included numerous NATO members. At the time, NATO provided air defense systems to Türkiye but did not launch a direct military attack on Iraq.

In those years, with less than a decade having passed since the end of the Cold War in 1991, liberals and neoliberals alike were busy extolling the virtues of a single-centered, monocentric world order (note: not a “unipolar” world order, as a “pole” logically requires at least two opposites; to call it unipolar is incorrect both linguistically and logically). A tempest of liberalism, capitalism, postmodernism, globalization, and the “New World Order” was sweeping the globe. The United States had triumphed. The USSR had dissolved. The Warsaw Pact had collapsed. The Eastern Bloc had been consigned to history. The Berlin Wall had fallen. Socialism and communism had been defeated.

Under those circumstances, since NATO’s raison d’être had ceased to exist, it should logically have been consigned to history as well. Its utility was being questioned; people were asking whom it would protect, and against whom. Consequently, there was an active search for an enemy—or enemies—for NATO. And indeed, they were found.

Weapons of mass destruction and weapons of mass persuasion

NATO—which stood idly by, biding its time and waiting for the right conditions while Yugoslavia was being torn apart, its people massacred, and ethnic cleansing and mass rapes were being carried out—finally mobilized at the exact moment and under the specific conditions dictated by US imperialism, delivering a clear message to the world. It announced to the globe that its mandate now encompassed missions such as “peacebuilding, peacekeeping, and combating radical movements and terrorism.” This, of course, aligned seamlessly with the rhetoric of “human rights, freedom, democracy, and the civilized world” championed by the United States as NATO’s founding leader. For the United States cast itself as the guardian of these values and concepts; yet in their name, and hiding behind them, it attacked, bombed, and occupied other nations. It would go so far as to first instigate disputes and conflicts in target nations, lay the groundwork for ethnic, religious, and sectarian strife, actively encourage and provoke these clashes, and then proceed to occupy those countries under the pretext of resolving these very problems and restoring stability.

And there were millions of people across the world who believed these American lies. In particular, the US media, along with global outlets, academics, non-governmental organizations, and think tanks supported by Washington, operated virtually as weapons of mass persuasion, designed to convince and deceive the public.

The United States grew so arrogant in this policy that US Presidents began to declare this mission to be far more than a mere political duty—it was, they claimed, a religious, divine, and moral responsibility. The US peddled this falsehood in Iraq, as it did in Yugoslavia. As Yugoslavia was disintegrating—or being disintegrated—NATO sought to project an image and send a message that, as an alliance whose sole Muslim member was Türkiye, it was defending Muslim Bosniaks and Kosovars against Christian Serbs, thereby shielding the righteous and oppressed from the unjust and tyrannical.

The collapse of the Atlantic system

Years have passed. The global balance of power has shifted. The imperialist dominance and hegemonic capacity of the United States have eroded and continue to decay. Russia, particularly after Putin took power, staged a rapid recovery starting in the 2000s. It consolidated its influence, beginning with its near abroad. China, alongside its economic prowess, expanded its political, military, scientific, and technological power, emerging as the primary competitor and most worrisome adversary of the United States. Within the Atlantic system and the Western alliance—whose rules and institutions were established by the US itself—deep-seated divisions have emerged, running parallel to its fragmentation and loss of power. Under these conditions, the United States is both failing to manage its own deep internal fault lines and socio-class contradictions, and experiencing major friction with its allies. Its intent to reduce Canada to a mere province, its ambition to annex Danish-administered Greenland, its barbarism in Venezuela and Palestine, its joint aggression with Israel against Iran, and its threats directed at Cuba must all be interpreted through this lens.

In the past, an imperialist power would at least superficially fabricate lies to rationalize, justify, and legitimize its invasions, aggression, plunder, and barbarism. For instance, when the United States invaded Afghanistan in 2001, immediately following the September 11 attacks, it cited the presence of Osama bin Laden—the Saudi leader of the Al-Qaeda terrorist network—in Afghanistan as its justification for the invasion. Similarly, during its 2003 invasion of Iraq, the US propagated the lie that “Saddam Hussein possesses chemical weapons and weapons of mass destruction.” When the German dictator Adolf Hitler invaded Poland in 1939, and the Italian dictator Mussolini invaded Abyssinia (Ethiopia) in 1935, they too presented historical, political, and geopolitical pretexts, however fabricated, to justify their actions.

Today, US imperialism does not even feel the need to construct such lies or manufacture pretexts. US President Trump openly talks of withdrawing from NATO, while scolding member states and insulting European leaders with arrogant remarks.

For this reason, NATO must be analyzed not by reading the words written in its founding treaty, but by grasping the shifting needs of US imperialism.

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Chinese diplomacy ascendant under Xi: All roads lead to Beijing

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Beginning in late 2025 and extending throughout 2026, one of the most striking developments in world politics has been the successive convergence of major powers upon Beijing. Direct, high-level engagement with China by actors at the very core of the global system—such as the United States, Russia, the United Kingdom, France, and Germany—is widely interpreted as a potent signal of a shifting international order. These visits are indubitably far from routine diplomatic encounters. Rather, they represent symbolic and strategic maneuvers indicative of a fundamental realignment of the world’s power centers. In particular, the intensive engagement with China by four of the permanent members of the United Nations Security Council within a brief window demonstrates that Beijing has evolved far beyond a mere economic powerhouse, establishing itself as a principal locus of global diplomacy.

For decades, the global order was predominantly US-centric. Following the end of the Cold War, the United States attained an unrivaled position militarily, economically, and diplomatically. China, conversely, was viewed as a rapidly growing economy defined primarily by its manufacturing capacity and cheap labor force. While Beijing possessed influence within the global system, the primary decision-making mechanisms of world politics remained firmly anchored in Washington. However, the transformation of the past two decades has elevated China from a mere economic giant to the epicenter of global strategic competition.

Today, China stands as one of the most pivotal actors in world trade. The vast majority of global supply chains are intricately linked to Chinese networks. Across a multitude of critical sectors—ranging from electric vehicles and battery technologies to artificial intelligence and solar energy—China has established itself as both a dominant producer and a global standard-setter. This immense economic capacity has naturally engendered commensurate political and diplomatic leverage. Global leaders now recognize that international challenges cannot be effectively managed by bypassing or ignoring China.

It is precisely here that the core significance of these recent visits to China becomes apparent. Donald Trump’s journey to Beijing to meet with Xi Jinping underscored that despite the intense rivalry between Washington and Beijing, direct engagement has become an absolute necessity. Similarly, while Vladimir Putin’s strategic alignment with China has long been established, Moscow’s deepened cooperation with Beijing in the wake of its profound crisis with the West has significantly bolstered China’s geopolitical weight across Eurasia. Meanwhile, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s visit was interpreted as a sign of Europe pivoting toward a more pragmatic trajectory in its policy toward China. The prior engagements of French President Emmanuel Macron had already demonstrated that Europe has no desire for a complete decoupling from China. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s discussions in Beijing were particularly noteworthy from an economic standpoint, as the Chinese market remains indispensable to German industry. Furthermore, the intensive diplomatic relations maintained by Serbian President Alexander Vučić with China demonstrate that Beijing’s influence on the European continent is by no means confined to major Western European states. Through infrastructure investments, transport projects, technology transfers, and defense cooperation in recent years, Serbia has emerged as one of China’s closest partners in Europe.

The common denominator among these visits was the pursuit of direct engagement with Xi Jinping. Xi is no longer viewed merely as the leader of China; for many nations, he has become a preeminent figure shaping the future of the global system. The transformation of China under Xi into a more centralized, visionary state structured around long-term strategic planning has magnified the personal significance of his leadership. Today, the international community is intensely focused on Xi Jinping’s decision-making. Consequently, pilgrimages to Beijing represent an effort to establish a direct, unmediated channel to Xi himself.

Symbolism is of paramount importance here; in international politics, the optics of “who travels to meet whom” are central to the perception of power. If global leaders continuously travel to Beijing while Xi travels sparingly—yet remains the figure everyone seeks to audience with—it naturally reinforces the message: Xi Jinping is no longer just the leader of China, but a chief architect of the global system. Remarkably, Xi’s reduced international travel has not diluted China’s influence. On the contrary, Beijing’s emergence as the primary destination of diplomatic pilgrimage projects an image of profound self-assurance. To many observers, this stands as one of the most visible symbols of a shifting world order. By rendering their respects in Beijing as much as in Washington, global leaders signal that the global equation is now being formulated here.

This shift is driven by tangible geopolitical realities. The contemporary world operates within a highly interdependent framework. While intense competition defines US-China relations, their economies remain deeply intertwined, rendering total decoupling virtually impossible. Across a vast spectrum of critical arenas—including trade, semiconductor technology, artificial intelligence, energy security, the Taiwan question, the Russia-Ukraine war, the Iranian crisis, and global supply chains—China has emerged as a decisive actor. Consequently, no major power, including Washington, can formulate a viable global strategy by sidelining China.

For Europe in particular, the China question has grown increasingly complex. The period between 2022 and 2024 saw Europe adopt a more hawkish and distant posture toward Beijing. However, slowing economic growth, energy crises, and trade frictions with the United States have compelled Europe to seek a more balanced approach. The pivot of European leaders toward Beijing reveals that complete economic decoupling from China would carry prohibitive costs for Europe. This dynamic also underscores the divergent internal priorities within the US-led Western bloc.

China’s rise should not be viewed solely through the prism of its relations with the West; the sphere of influence Beijing has cultivated across the Global South is of equal significance. In recent years, Chinese influence has expanded dramatically across Africa, Latin America, Central Asia, the Gulf States, and South Asia. Within this context, Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s visit to China carries profound weight. The China-Pakistan relationship has long been characterized as an “ironclad friendship.” Through the Belt and Road Initiative, China has constructed ports, railways, energy facilities, and critical infrastructure in numerous countries, most notably Pakistan. Furthermore, unlike Western financial institutions, Beijing extends credit and investment with fewer political conditionalities. Consequently, many developing nations view China not only as a vital economic partner but also as a geopolitical counterweight to the West.

All of this inevitably raises the question: “Is China ascendant?” Based on the current landscape, the answer must be in the affirmative. For global leaders, Beijing has now emerged as a diplomatic hub as critical as Washington. Moreover, beyond its sheer economic scale, China is increasingly distinguished by its capacity for conflict resolution. Its pivotal role in facilitating the Iran-Saudi Arabia normalization, coupled with its close ties to Russia and its sweeping influence over the Global South, has significantly amplified Beijing’s diplomatic gravity.

The diplomatic traffic observed throughout 2026 highlights a fundamental truth: the world is no longer unipolar or monocivilizational. Opposite the United States stands a China capable of challenging it economically, technologically, culturally, and diplomatically. Consequently, this new era diverges sharply from the unipolar structure of the “American Century,” resembling instead a multipolar, multi-civilizational order where all actors cooperate and compete with one another simultaneously.

Xi Jinping’s position is central to this paradigm shift. For many leaders today, meeting with Xi in Beijing is not merely a matter of bilateral diplomacy, but a strategic imperative for positioning oneself within the global balance of power. This has immensely enhanced Xi’s personal prestige. Within the international system, there is a growing consensus that on most critical issues, “if Beijing is not at the table, no resolution can be complete.” The acceleration of visits to China since late 2025 is not merely a reflection of a crowded diplomatic calendar; it must be understood as a tangible indicator of a shifting world order. Beijing has transcended its status as an economic core to become one of the primary power centers of global politics. Consequently, Chinese President Xi Jinping is emerging as one of the most influential figures of this new, multipolar, and multi-civilizational world order.

Today, the diplomatic traffic directed toward Beijing is by no means limited to the United States, Russia, or the major European powers. The efforts of leaders from a vast geographical span—from Serbia and Pakistan to the Gulf States and African nations—to establish direct contact with China render Beijing’s central position in the global system increasingly conspicuous. Consequently, these recent visits are interpreted as signs that the power map of the new international order is being redrawn. For many capitals, the path to understanding global developments and formulating future strategies now runs through Beijing as much as it does through Washington. Thus, the adage “All roads lead to Beijing” is rapidly transforming from a rhetorical trope into a defining reality of contemporary international politics.

Umur Tugay Yücel – Political Scientist & Author of the book “The Decline of American Power and the Rising Powers” (China-Russia-India-Brazil).

X: @umur_tugay

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