Asia
‘There will be no security and peace in Central Asia, without peace and security in Afghanistan’
Khusrav Noziri, Secretary General of the Economic Cooperation Organisation (ECO), told Harici: “Afghanistan is not only the security concern for Tajikistan but for the whole region, for the whole Central Asia because the Central Asian countries consider the security of Afghanistan as the security of the Central Asia.”
Established in 1985 with Turkey, Pakistan, Iran, Afghanistan, Azerbaijan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan as members, and the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC) as an observer, ECO is an economically-oriented regional organisation with a population of some 450 million.
Established with the aim of developing regional economic cooperation, ECO enables the implementation of regional cooperation projects in the fields of trade, transport, agriculture, energy, environment, health, industry, finance and economy.
Khusrav Noziri, who has been Secretary General of ECO since 2021, has held senior positions such as Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs in Tajikistan, as well as diplomatic posts in many countries, including Tajikistan’s embassies in Egypt, the Republic of South Africa and China. In 2021, he was awarded the “20th Anniversary of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation” medal for his contribution to the establishment and development of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO).
Ambassador Khusrav Noziri, Secretary General of ECO, answered our questions about the organisation’s goals, upcoming projects and trade cooperation in Central Asia.
The fact that the Middle Corridor continues to move forward despite obstacles is seen as a symbol of the South Caucasus-Central Asia region’s desire for political and economic autonomy. How do you assess the approach of major powers such as China and Russia to this issue?
Middle Corridor is one of the major corridors in the territory of the Economic Cooperation Organization (ECO) and as you know, we have established the Coordination Committee between ECO and United Nations Economic Committee for Europe (UNEC). In this framework, we are discussing how to better implement this project and realization of this corridor. This corridor is of high importance for our region because from the East, it connects our region to China, one of the most important countries in the world, and also, from the West to Europe. And this issue was also raised in Antalya Diplomacy Forum; it was highlighted that due to some events happening in the eastern part of Europe, the northern corridor has some difficulties. So now, we focus on how to better use of the potential which the Middle Corridor possesses, which cross through the ECO region.
Despite Western pressure, the Economic Cooperation Organization refuses to join the sanctions targeting Russia. How do you assess Washington’s measures on secondary sanctions?
As ECO, we agreed among the member states, not to raise political issues and focus only on the issues of economic cooperation and integration among ten member states. But of course, it is sovereign right of every member state what to decide and whether to implement sanction or not. But what we are doing in our organization is that we have a target set, goals set in trade and transport, connectivity, energy, environment etc. We are now, according to our basic strategic document which is Vision 2025, implementing our projects, in all our priority areas. But, of course, we understand that these sanctions which are enforced against one of our key member states, of course, has negative consequences on our agenda of regional economic cooperation. We understand it. But, nevertheless, we are trying our best to overcome these difficulties and move towards closer cooperation economically and for closer integration in all our priority areas.
Can you give us some details about the remarkable goals which take place in your strategy document, Vision 2025?
According to our basic strategy document which is Vision 2025, we set a target to double our intra-regional trade. If we compare the level of our cooperation in the area of trade, we can see that the amount of our regional trade which is now 9% of from our global trade is much less if we compare with the similar level from other regional economic blocks and organizations. So, that’s why we set the target to double our intra-regional trade. We have two tracks on this. The first is to increase the share of contribution of our organization to the global trade. In 2022, for the first time we, as ECO members, crossed the mark of 1 trillion USD which is about 4% of the global trade. We want to increase our share and our contribution to the global trade. Secondly, we also simultaneously set a target to increase our intra-regional trade, the trade which we have inside the region among the member states. Because if we analyze the trade we can see that many items and commodities could be imported from within the ECO, instead of importing them from outside the block. So, in this regard, we have a huge potential. The second priority area is on transport and communication. In transport and communication, we have many success stories and we already discussed Trans-Caspian Middle Corridor. And also, we have again reactivated the corridor which is called ITI (Islamabad-Tehran-Istanbul) which starts from Islamabad and goes through Tehran and ends in Istanbul. If we compare it with the relevant sea corridor, it will be less expensive and time saving. Now, we are discussing with the Bulgarian companies to extend this corridor to Bulgaria which will eventually connect the South Asia by railway for the first time to Europe. So, it’s another major corridor in our region. Also, we are in the last ministerial meeting on transport which was held in Tashkent last year, we initiated two new corridors, multimodal corridors, which are called TUTIT and KUTIT. TUTIT is abbreviation for Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Iran and Türkiye. KUTIT is for Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Iran and Türkiye. Both are plus China. These two corridors are multimodal corridors. In last September, we had the first meeting of the working group in Dushanbe and now we are discussing when we should have a test-run alongside the TUTIT multimodal corridor.
Another project it is KTI which is Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Iran. During the summit which we held in Ashkabad, we agreed to commercialize this transport corridor. One of our targets in the area of transport and communication is to make our transport corridors economic and trade corridors and thus commercialize them. Also, we are developing our cooperation in the area of transport in the maritime cooperation because we have Caspian Sea and Persian Gulf in the south, these are important sea ports. Also, Gwadar sea port in Pakistan and also the important sea ports in Türkiye will be included in the project. Three of our countries in organization have access to the sea but the majority of them, remaining seven member states are landlocked countries. And in this regard, the issues related to increasing the potential of landlock countries and providing them the access to the sea through this echo-gates, is of great importance.
Also, we have a good cooperation in the aviation sphere. In the last ministerial meeting on transport, we decided to grant ECO the status of a hub to Gabala of Azerbaijan and Samarkand of Uzbekistan. This status, which also we hope that, will increase the potential of landlock countries in attracting the business, investments and etc.
Other top priority areas are energy and environment. On energy, I would like to say that we have two flagship important projects. The first one is the establishment of ECO Clean Energy Center in Baku. This is a joint project which is implemented together with United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO) and the initial phase of the establishment has been completed. Now, we are moving towards the implementation of the next stages of this project. We hope that during the next Conference on Parties 29 (COP29), which will be hosted by Azerbaijan, which is one of our important member states, we will succeed in inauguration of the ECO Clean Energy Center in Baku.
Another flagship program in energy sector is ECO-RAM. It’s a regional electricity market, now it’s at pilot stage. In this project, Türkiye and Iran, as neighboring countries are participating, with the potential involvement of Azerbaijan. But we think that this project has a prospect to be expanded because in our region, we have other countries which are rich in the natural resources and the production of electricity. Some of them are based on the fossils and some of them are based on electricity like Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. This cooperation is promising.
Another area is environment. During the last COP in Dubai, we had the ministerial meeting on environment. In this meeting, we decided to have the first meeting of the high-level dialogue platform on environment cooperation in Samarkand, Uzbekistan. It’s a newly established mechanism in our organization.
The next priority area is tourism. Now, we are developing the concept of the tourism capitals of ECO. Now, we have six cities in this project. One of them is Erzurum of Türkiye. Next year, Erzurum will be announced as the tourism capital of ECO. In this regard, we are planning to convene major events in Erzurum. After Erzurum, it will be the turn of the Shusa.
Last year, China organised a quintet summit in Xian that brought Central Asian countries together. How would you interpret China’s growing role in the region?
We understand that China plays a growing role in the ECO member states. That’s why ECO is interested in developing, strengthening and expanding relations with China. As you know, some significant number of ECO member states are the neighbors of China. Starting from Kazakhstan, Kirgizstan, Tajikistan and Pakistan are direct neighbors of China. ECO member states have significant and big projects, infrastructural projects etc. with China, which we consider that eventually could benefit ECO as well for increasing our economic cooperation and integration. So, China, for us, is an important trade partner, economic partner, investment partner.
Some countries are pro-Chinese investments and some countries are feeling worried regarding the Chinese economic growth and being bounded to Belt and Road initiative and debts caused by that. What is the ECO’s position?
If you look at the reality on the ground, I think all member states are welcoming the growing Chinese investments in their economies. We can see it on the ground in the forms of realization of the grand projects and different various areas.
You are not giving this interview on behalf of Tajikistan but if you allow me, I have some questions about your home country as well. We don’t know much about Tajikistan. We cannot speak much with Tajik politicians. It’s very hard to catch them and talk to them. We would like to know more about foreign policy of Tajikistan as according to the Tajikistan constitution it stressed upon a peaceful policy. What is that criteria and how it goes with the regional countries and beyond?
As Secretary General of Economic Cooperation Organization, of course, I cannot talk on behalf of Tajikistan, but I can say that Tajikistan is a very important and active member of our organization. Tajikistan hosted the summit of the organization, the Council of Ministers of the Organization several times. As you know, the Council is the highest decision and policymaking body in our organization. Tajikistan also participates in implementation of different regional projects in our organization. We value the participation of Tajikstan. In Antalya Diplomacy Forum, we once again met with the Foreign Minister of Tajikistan, Sirojiddin Muhriddin and had an exchange of views on the areas of cooperation and strengthening the role of Tajikistan and the activities.
Apparently, Tajikistan has a big issue with two of its neighbors and that’s are Kyrgyzstan and Afghanistan. What steps has been taken to normalize its ties or if there is any chance for improving of ties between those countries?
Again, I cannot speak on behalf of Tajikistan but what I know is that: Both Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan are our members. We welcome the negotiation process which is going on between Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. We heard about the positive developments and the big area of the joint border between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. I think, the delegations agreed on how to demarcate this border. There are positive steps and positive development in this area. Afghanistan also is the member state of ECO. Afghanistan is very important especially in terms of the transport and especially in the terms of energy because we have projects with regard to Afghanistan but because of this current situation and de-facto rulers in Afghanistan, many of our projects are now on-hold. But, we have special program for Afghanistan.
Can we say that this is also one of the biggest security concerns of Tajikistan, too?
Afghanistan is not only the security concern for Tajikistan but for the whole region, for the whole Central Asia because the Central Asian countries consider the security of Afghanistan as the security of the Central Asia. It was stated several times by Central Asian leaders that there will be no security and peace, without peace and security in Afghanistan.
Do you refer to Afghanistan as a country or do you refer to this threat regarding the de-facto rule of Taliban?
I refer to Afghanistan as a country because this situation not started two years ago. It continues already more than 40 years. So, I’m referring to the country. Afghanistan is an important member of our organization but due to this this current situation, Afghanistan regrettably cannot officially attend in our meetings.
The US and China are interested in investing in Tajikistan. Which of them have invested more in Tajikistan and in which areas?
[Laughter] For the countries receiving investments, I think, there is not big difference in who is investing as long as the money flows. I think the countries are interested to increase these investments and increase the number of countries who are coming with the investment. So, I believe, this is a policy of Tajikistan as well.
Looking on the ground, which country is investing more?
According to the statistics which we have, of course, China is the major investor not only in Tajikistan but in all Central Asian countries and in Iran as well and in Pakistan as well.
Is there anything that I didn’t ask you but you want to tell us?
There is one more priority area which I haven’t mentioned. It is human resources and sustainable development. In this regard, this year we are going to convene the first Forum on Sustainable Development in Arkadak, Turkmenistan, which is the new modern smart city. This year is of the chairmanship of Iran. Iran came with the theme of enhanced and resilient ECO region through intra-regional trade. Again, coming back the intra-regional trade is a top priority for our region. With this regard, we are taking necessary measures for our organization. We negotiated on The Economic Cooperation Organization Trade Agreement (ECOTA) and signed and ratified by five member states, which is the minimum for entering into force. But regrettably, this agreement remains non-operational due to the divergence in opinion among the parties on the articles related to the reduction of the tariffs. But, it is not the end of the story but we are now exploring other ways how to facilitate the trade in particular. There are draft trade facilitation strategy and draft trade facilitation agreement.
Asia
Analysts warn new surge in Chinese exports threatens global markets
Financial Times writer Ryan Avent has written that a fresh, rapid surge in China’s trade surplus could signal a new wave of the “China shock”.
Economists define the “China shock” as a spike in Chinese exports to global markets that intensifies competition for manufacturers in advanced economies and curtails employment in certain sectors.
The term gained widespread currency after China joined the World Trade Organization in 2001, accelerating the inflow of inexpensive Chinese goods into the US and other nations.
The US was the country hit hardest by the initial shockwave. Between 1999 and 2011, more than 2 million jobs were lost because domestic producers were unable to withstand the competition.
Avent argued that the effects of the initial wave are still felt across the American economy because China failed to carry out the rebalancing that the world expected.
The share of net exports in China’s gross domestic product contracted during the 2007-2019 period, allowing Western nations to focus on national security and other matters.
Avent reported that the trade surplus is now escalating rapidly once again, posing a threat to the economies of wealthy nations.
The writer pointed to the stagnation of domestic demand following the collapse of the real estate market six years ago as one cause of this surplus. Another prominent factor is the Beijing government’s channelling of massive resources into manufacturing in pursuit of self-sufficiency.
Attention was also drawn to the role of the depreciating yuan. An appreciation of the currency could require China to alter its foreign exchange interventions, reduce purchases of foreign currency and assets, and sell those assets off. That scenario could trigger currency depreciation and rising interest rates in other countries.
The Wall Street Journal also reported in the spring of 2024 on economists’ concerns regarding a potential second wave.
Experts predicted that global markets would once again be flooded with inexpensive goods, stating that China was manufacturing far beyond domestic demand to overcome its economic troubles.
Moreover, it was stressed that China is now competing in high-technology fields such as automobiles, computer chips, and complex machinery manufacturing.
Meanwhile, Vasiliy Kashin, Director of the Centre for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the Higher School of Economics (HSE) University in Moscow, told the Russian media outlet RBC that the US has imposed sanctions on the Chinese economy since the first shock period, adding that these measures would very likely tighten in the event of a fresh export wave.
According to assessments reported by the Financial Times, this new process could also shake China’s own economy. Alongside rising output, entry-level manufacturing plants across the country are turning toward automation and reducing personnel.
This trend could trigger a painful departure from labour-intensive production, leaving millions unemployed. Manufacturing activities in China that previously capitalised on cheap labour are shifting to other Southeast Asian countries.
The Beijing administration rejected allegations that its industrialisation steps pose risks to other countries. As reported by the Xinhua news agency, China’s Ministry of Commerce stressed that claims of a “China shock 2.0” are groundless. The ministry stated:
“The US and other Western countries have circulated the so-called ‘China shock 2.0’ narrative, asserting that China’s industrial development has shaken Western monopolies and narrowed growth space for Global South countries. This claim is unsupported by concrete data and is entirely unfounded.”
Asia
Iran and China run secret barter network to bypass oil sanctions
Iran is operating a covert, barter-like trade mechanism to bypass sanctions on its oil sales and procure billions of dollars in goods from China, including military hardware.
Speaking to the Reuters news agency, two senior Iranian officials and three sources closely monitoring the matter said the Tehran administration receives credits for goods imported from China instead of cash in exchange for the oil it sells to the country.
The sources, who spoke on condition of anonymity, emphasised that this method of swapping oil revenues for Chinese goods provides an immediate financial lifeline to the Tehran government at a time when the US has intensified economic and military pressure over its nuclear programme.
China, the world’s largest crude importer, continues to access discounted Iranian oil through this arrangement while shielding its banks and exporting companies from the risk of international penalties.
Although the Washington administration has imposed sanctions on several small-scale Chinese entities facilitating the transport of Iranian oil, it avoids sweeping measures that could shake the global economy.
The US has stepped up its pressure as it seeks to reopen the Strait of Hormuz amid the ongoing war between the two countries.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said last month that countries failing to cut commercial ties with Tehran would risk exclusion from the dollar system.
It remains unclear how the barter mechanism has been affected by the US naval blockade imposed on Iran as part of the six-month-old war.
However, since the reimposition of the blockade on 14 July, no shipments of Iranian oil passing through the Strait of Hormuz to China have been recorded.
Beijing and Tehran, which describe Western unilateral sanctions as illegal, refrain from disclosing publicly how they sustain their trade.
Sources state that Tehran introduced this system to obtain pharmaceuticals, vehicles, and communications equipment. Chinese manufacturers are said to have no direct contact with Iran, and there is no indication that they are violating sanctions.
On the other hand, the mechanism was utilised at least once last year under contracts supplying Iran with millions of dollars’ worth of air defence equipment. The sources provided no details regarding the shipments in question, and the transactions were not independently verified.
The United Nations conventional arms embargo returned alongside other sanctions in September 2025 following the collapse of the 2015 nuclear agreement between Iran and world powers.
Tehran had withdrawn from the terms of the agreement, while Beijing and Tehran described the European nations’ automatic reimposition of sanctions as legally flawed.
Responding to questions from Reuters, the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that it had no knowledge of the trade structure in question.
Beijing stated that it opposes unilateral sanctions lacking United Nations Security Council authorisation and having no basis in international law.
Iran’s diplomatic missions in New York and Geneva remained silent on the inquiries. A US official speaking on behalf of the White House stated only that they are working with international partners, including the EU, to prevent Tehran from achieving its nuclear goals.
According to data analytics company Kpler, China purchased more than 80% of the crude oil exported by Iran in 2025. This share equates to an average of 1.4 million barrels per day.
Although the two countries signed a 25-year strategic partnership agreement in 2021 covering energy and infrastructure, the operational details of their cooperation remain largely confidential.
The model in question constitutes only one of the networks through which Iran procures goods and services from China without passing through international banking channels.
A Western official and two other individuals tracking the matter said that a buyer acting on behalf of state-owned Chinese oil company Zhuhai Zhenrong deposited hundreds of millions of dollars each month until this year into ChuXin, a shadow financial entity based in China.
These deposits reportedly represent payment for oil purchased from a Hong Kong-based company linked to the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC).
Approximately 70% of the oil revenues routed through ChuXin is allocated to infrastructure projects in Iran. The remainder is transferred to the accounts of a special purpose vehicle (SPV) established to disburse payments to companies supplying goods to Iran.
Sources close to Iran’s decision-making apparatus confirm the existence of this financial mechanism.
Fund management is shared between a firm acting on behalf of the Chinese Ministry of Commerce and another entity linked to the Central Bank of Iran. When the Central Bank of Iran authorises importers, money transfers are directed to supplier firms. While the name ChuXin does not appear in official records, one source noted that the structure exists solely on balance sheets.
Andrea Ghiselli, an international politics specialist at the University of Exeter, stated that Beijing uses these indirect networks to demonstrate that it will not bow to US secondary sanction threats.
Highlighting that Chinese leaders aim to protect their own banks and firms from being pushed out of the global financial system, Ghiselli said: “They want to create deniability.”
Asia
China leads $54bn capital injection into state banks and insurers
China’s Ministry of Finance will lead a total capital injection of $54 billion into state-owned insurance companies and banks as part of a coordinated push to reinforce the capital structure across the country’s financial system, according to details disclosed by the institutions in statements on Sunday.
China Life Insurance (Group) Co, the country’s largest life insurer, will receive 35 billion yuan ($5.2 billion) in capital support, whilst China Taiping Insurance Group will receive 7 billion yuan.
In a separate announcement, People’s Insurance Company (Group) of China (PICC) said it plans to raise up to 15 billion yuan via a private placement of A-shares to the Ministry of Finance. The company stated that the proceeds will be used to replenish its capital.
The initiative could fortify the financial position of state insurers, which have been called upon to support the equity market with medium- and long-term funds. At the same time, it could position these institutions to help regulatory authorities manage smaller and higher-risk insurance companies.
Financial sector stability
China’s insurance industry has been contending with shrinking profitability caused by prolonged low interest rates. Solvency ratios across numerous small and medium-sized insurers have also deteriorated.
China Export and Credit Insurance Corp stated that the Ministry of Finance will inject 10 billion yuan to boost the company’s core capital. China Reinsurance (Group) announced that it will execute a capital increase of 3 billion yuan.
“The capital injection represents an important step for enhancing the financial sector’s capacity to serve the real economy and promoting high-quality development across the financial and insurance industries,” China Life said in a statement. The insurer added that the capital support will improve the group’s resilience to risks.
Taiping also noted that the funds provided will strengthen the company’s solvency and other core metrics.
Banks benefit from recapitalisation plan
Separately, three state banks announced on Sunday that they will receive capital support totalling 290 billion yuan.
The recapitalisation framework was first announced during the annual parliamentary meetings in March this year. The move broadens a funding mechanism deployed last year to strengthen the capital structures of several other major state-owned lenders.
Agricultural Bank of China and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC), two of the country’s largest state-owned lenders, announced plans to raise up to 160 billion yuan and 100 billion yuan, respectively, through private placements of A-shares to the Ministry of Finance, China National Tobacco Corp, and affiliated entities.
Both lenders confirmed that all net proceeds will be deployed to replenish their Core Tier 1 capital. The measure is expected to help sustain credit expansion at a juncture when Beijing is increasingly relying on state lenders to support economic growth.
Weak credit demand remains a persistent headwind for the world’s second-largest economy, while continuing to erode profitability across the banking sector.
Export-Import Bank of China, one of the country’s three policy banks, stated that the Ministry of Finance will inject 30 billion yuan of capital into the institution, thereby bolstering its capital base.
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