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‘There will be no security and peace in Central Asia, without peace and security in Afghanistan’

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Khusrav Noziri, Secretary General of the Economic Cooperation Organisation (ECO), told Harici: “Afghanistan is not only the security concern for Tajikistan but for the whole region, for the whole Central Asia because the Central Asian countries consider the security of Afghanistan as the security of the Central Asia.”

Established in 1985 with Turkey, Pakistan, Iran, Afghanistan, Azerbaijan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan as members, and the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC) as an observer, ECO is an economically-oriented regional organisation with a population of some 450 million.

Established with the aim of developing regional economic cooperation, ECO enables the implementation of regional cooperation projects in the fields of trade, transport, agriculture, energy, environment, health, industry, finance and economy.

Khusrav Noziri, who has been Secretary General of ECO since 2021, has held senior positions such as Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs in Tajikistan, as well as diplomatic posts in many countries, including Tajikistan’s embassies in Egypt, the Republic of South Africa and China. In 2021, he was awarded the “20th Anniversary of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation” medal for his contribution to the establishment and development of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO).

Ambassador Khusrav Noziri, Secretary General of ECO, answered our questions about the organisation’s goals, upcoming projects and trade cooperation in Central Asia.

The fact that the Middle Corridor continues to move forward despite obstacles is seen as a symbol of the South Caucasus-Central Asia region’s desire for political and economic autonomy. How do you assess the approach of major powers such as China and Russia to this issue?

Middle Corridor is one of the major corridors in the territory of the Economic Cooperation Organization (ECO) and as you know, we have established the Coordination Committee between ECO and United Nations Economic Committee for Europe (UNEC). In this framework, we are discussing how to better implement this project and realization of this corridor. This corridor is of high importance for our region because from the East, it connects our region to China, one of the most important countries in the world, and also, from the West to Europe. And this issue was also raised in Antalya Diplomacy Forum; it was highlighted that due to some events happening in the eastern part of Europe, the northern corridor has some difficulties. So now, we focus on how to better use of the potential which the Middle Corridor possesses, which cross through the ECO region.

Despite Western pressure, the Economic Cooperation Organization refuses to join the sanctions targeting Russia. How do you assess Washington’s measures on secondary sanctions?

As ECO, we agreed among the member states, not to raise political issues and focus only on the issues of economic cooperation and integration among ten member states.  But of course, it is sovereign right of every member state what to decide and whether to implement sanction or not. But what we are doing in our organization is that we have a target set, goals set in trade and transport, connectivity, energy, environment etc. We are now, according to our basic strategic document which is Vision 2025, implementing our projects, in all our priority areas. But, of course, we understand that these sanctions which are enforced against one of our key member states, of course, has negative consequences on our agenda of regional economic cooperation. We understand it. But, nevertheless, we are trying our best to overcome these difficulties and move towards closer cooperation economically and for closer integration in all our priority areas.

Can you give us some details about the remarkable goals which take place in your strategy document, Vision 2025?

According to our basic strategy document which is Vision 2025, we set a target to double our intra-regional trade. If we compare the level of our cooperation in the area of trade, we can see that the amount of our regional trade which is now 9% of from our global trade is much less if we compare with the similar level from other regional economic blocks and organizations. So, that’s why we set the target to double our intra-regional trade. We have two tracks on this. The first is to increase the share of contribution of our organization to the global trade. In 2022, for the first time we, as ECO members, crossed the mark of 1 trillion USD which is about 4% of the global trade. We want to increase our share and our contribution to the global trade. Secondly, we also simultaneously set a target to increase our intra-regional trade, the trade which we have inside the region among the member states. Because if we analyze the trade we can see that many items and commodities could be imported from within the ECO, instead of importing them from outside the block. So, in this regard, we have a huge potential. The second priority area is on transport and communication. In transport and communication, we have many success stories and we already discussed Trans-Caspian Middle Corridor. And also, we have again reactivated the corridor which is called ITI (Islamabad-Tehran-Istanbul) which starts from Islamabad and goes through Tehran and ends in Istanbul. If we compare it with the relevant sea corridor, it will be less expensive and time saving. Now, we are discussing with the Bulgarian companies to extend this corridor to Bulgaria which will eventually connect the South Asia by railway for the first time to Europe. So, it’s another major corridor in our region. Also, we are in the last ministerial meeting on transport which was held in Tashkent last year, we initiated two new corridors, multimodal corridors, which are called TUTIT and KUTIT. TUTIT is abbreviation for Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Iran and Türkiye. KUTIT is for Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Iran and Türkiye. Both are plus China. These two corridors are multimodal corridors. In last September, we had the first meeting of the working group in Dushanbe and now we are discussing when we should have a test-run alongside the TUTIT multimodal corridor. 

Another project it is KTI which is Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Iran. During the summit which we held in Ashkabad, we agreed to commercialize this transport corridor. One of our targets in the area of transport and communication is to make our transport corridors economic and trade corridors and thus commercialize them. Also, we are developing our cooperation in the area of transport in the maritime cooperation because we have Caspian Sea and Persian Gulf in the south, these are important sea ports. Also, Gwadar sea port in Pakistan and also the important sea ports in Türkiye will be included in the project. Three of our countries in organization have access to the sea but the majority of them, remaining seven member states are landlocked countries. And in this regard, the issues related to increasing the potential of landlock countries and providing them the access to the sea through this echo-gates, is of great importance. 

Also, we have a good cooperation in the aviation sphere. In the last ministerial meeting on transport, we decided to grant ECO the status of a hub to Gabala of Azerbaijan and Samarkand of Uzbekistan. This status, which also we hope that, will increase the potential of landlock countries in attracting the business, investments and etc. 

Other top priority areas are energy and environment. On energy, I would like to say that we have two flagship important projects. The first one is the establishment of ECO Clean Energy Center in Baku. This is a joint project which is implemented together with United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO) and the initial phase of the establishment has been completed. Now, we are moving towards the implementation of the next stages of this project. We hope that during the next Conference on Parties 29 (COP29), which will be hosted by Azerbaijan, which is one of our important member states, we will succeed in inauguration of the ECO Clean Energy Center in Baku.

Another flagship program in energy sector is ECO-RAM. It’s a regional electricity market, now it’s at pilot stage. In this project, Türkiye and Iran, as neighboring countries are participating, with the potential involvement of Azerbaijan. But we think that this project has a prospect to be expanded because in our region, we have other countries which are rich in the natural resources and the production of electricity. Some of them are based on the fossils and some of them are based on electricity like Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. This cooperation is promising. 

Another area is environment. During the last COP in Dubai, we had the ministerial meeting on environment. In this meeting, we decided to have the first meeting of the high-level dialogue platform on environment cooperation in Samarkand, Uzbekistan. It’s a newly established mechanism in our organization.

The next priority area is tourism. Now, we are developing the concept of the tourism capitals of ECO. Now, we have six cities in this project. One of them is Erzurum of Türkiye. Next year, Erzurum will be announced as the tourism capital of ECO. In this regard, we are planning to convene major events in Erzurum. After Erzurum, it will be the turn of the Shusa. 

Last year, China organised a quintet summit in Xian that brought Central Asian countries together. How would you interpret China’s growing role in the region?

We understand that China plays a growing role in the ECO member states. That’s why ECO is interested in developing, strengthening and expanding relations with China. As you know, some significant number of ECO member states are the neighbors of China. Starting from Kazakhstan, Kirgizstan, Tajikistan and Pakistan are direct neighbors of China. ECO member states have significant and big projects, infrastructural projects etc. with China, which we consider that eventually could benefit ECO as well for increasing our economic cooperation and integration. So, China, for us, is an important trade partner, economic partner, investment partner. 

Some countries are pro-Chinese investments and some countries are feeling worried regarding the Chinese economic growth and being bounded to Belt and Road initiative and debts caused by that. What is the ECO’s position? 

If you look at the reality on the ground, I think all member states are welcoming the growing Chinese investments in their economies. We can see it on the ground in the forms of realization of the grand projects and different various areas.

You are not giving this interview on behalf of Tajikistan but if you allow me, I have some questions about your home country as well. We don’t know much about Tajikistan. We cannot speak much with Tajik politicians. It’s very hard to catch them and talk to them. We would like to know more about foreign policy of Tajikistan as according to the Tajikistan constitution it stressed upon a peaceful policy. What is that criteria and how it goes with the regional countries and beyond?

As Secretary General of Economic Cooperation Organization, of course, I cannot talk on behalf of Tajikistan, but I can say that Tajikistan is a very important and active member of our organization. Tajikistan hosted the summit of the organization, the Council of Ministers of the Organization several times. As you know, the Council is the highest decision and policymaking body in our organization. Tajikistan also participates in implementation of different regional projects in our organization. We value the participation of Tajikstan. In Antalya Diplomacy Forum, we once again met with the Foreign Minister of Tajikistan, Sirojiddin Muhriddin and had an exchange of views on the areas of cooperation and strengthening the role of Tajikistan and the activities.

Apparently, Tajikistan has a big issue with two of its neighbors and that’s are Kyrgyzstan and Afghanistan. What steps has been taken to normalize its ties or if there is any chance for improving of ties between those countries?

Again, I cannot speak on behalf of Tajikistan but what I know is that: Both Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan are our members. We welcome the negotiation process which is going on between Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. We heard about the positive developments and the big area of the joint border between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. I think, the delegations agreed on how to demarcate this border. There are positive steps and positive development in this area. Afghanistan also is the member state of ECO. Afghanistan is very important especially in terms of the transport and especially in the terms of energy because we have projects with regard to Afghanistan but because of this current situation and de-facto rulers in Afghanistan, many of our projects are now on-hold. But, we have special program for Afghanistan.

Can we say that this is also one of the biggest security concerns of Tajikistan, too? 

Afghanistan is not only the security concern for Tajikistan but for the whole region, for the whole Central Asia because the Central Asian countries consider the security of Afghanistan as the security of the Central Asia. It was stated several times by Central Asian leaders that there will be no security and peace, without peace and security in Afghanistan.

Do you refer to Afghanistan as a country or do you refer to this threat regarding the de-facto rule of Taliban?

I refer to Afghanistan as a country because this situation not started two years ago. It continues already more than 40 years. So, I’m referring to the country. Afghanistan is an important member of our organization but due to this this current situation, Afghanistan regrettably cannot officially attend in our meetings.

The US and China are interested in investing in Tajikistan. Which of them have invested more in Tajikistan and in which areas?

[Laughter] For the countries receiving investments, I think, there is not big difference in who is investing as long as the money flows. I think the countries are interested to increase these investments and increase the number of countries who are coming with the investment. So, I believe, this is a policy of Tajikistan as well.

Looking on the ground, which country is investing more?

According to the statistics which we have, of course, China is the major investor not only in Tajikistan but in all Central Asian countries and in Iran as well and in Pakistan as well. 

Is there anything that I didn’t ask you but you want to tell us?

There is one more priority area which I haven’t mentioned. It is human resources and sustainable development. In this regard, this year we are going to convene the first Forum on Sustainable Development in Arkadak, Turkmenistan, which is the new modern smart city. This year is of the chairmanship of Iran. Iran came with the theme of enhanced and resilient ECO region through intra-regional trade. Again, coming back the intra-regional trade is a top priority for our region. With this regard, we are taking necessary measures for our organization. We negotiated on The Economic Cooperation Organization Trade Agreement (ECOTA) and signed and ratified by five member states, which is the minimum for entering into force. But regrettably, this agreement remains non-operational due to the divergence in opinion among the parties on the articles related to the reduction of the tariffs. But, it is not the end of the story but we are now exploring other ways how to facilitate the trade in particular. There are draft trade facilitation strategy and draft trade facilitation agreement. 

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Ending Western reliance on China requires $23.6 trillion in investment by 2050, study shows

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13/07/2026

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Western efforts to reduce reliance on China across strategic supply chains could cost the US, the eurozone, and the UK more than $23 trillion over the next quarter-century, according to a study highlighting the immense economic challenge confronting Western policymakers.

Economic analysis indicates that European and US authorities and corporations will need to invest an additional $23.6 trillion over the next 25 years to successfully end their dependence on China in critical sectors such as manufacturing and technology.

The consultancy EY-Parthenon calculated that rebuilding infrastructure, research, software, manufacturing, and supply chains currently reliant on China will cost the US $13.7 trillion, the eurozone $9.1 trillion, and the UK $800 billion by 2050.

For the US, the required annual capital expenditure from the government and private sector to decouple from China is estimated at $550 billion. This sum is roughly equivalent to the $600 billion major US technology companies are projected to invest in data centers in 2025. For the EU, EY-Parthenon estimated that the necessary spending would require nearly doubling the bloc’s annual budget.

The scale of investment required to substitute Chinese resources and materials, on which advanced economies are currently dependent, underscores the formidable challenge Western governments face as they attempt to curb Beijing’s dominance in strategic supply chains.

“Localizing supply chains without creating unbearable costs for taxpayers and consumers will be one of the most difficult challenges confronting both companies and governments in the coming years,” said Mats Persson, a former UK Prime Minister’s adviser who is now a partner at EY-Parthenon.

EY-Parthenon analysts wrote that an average collective additional investment of $940 billion annually over 25 years was, in theory, “not insurmountable.” However, this expenditure would need to be made on top of existing investments in energy, technology, defense, and infrastructure. Persson noted that initial annual outlays would start lower but would escalate as the transition expanded.

The vulnerability of European and US economies to Chinese leverage was exposed last year when Beijing introduced export controls on critical rare earth metals in response to US President Donald Trump’s threat to impose a 145% tariff on Chinese imports.

Automotive production lines in both economies ground to a near-standstill before a truce was reached between Beijing and Washington. The disruption accelerated efforts by the US and Europe to de-risk their relations with China, which included an EU plan to stockpile rare earth elements.

According to assessments by the International Energy Agency, China is projected to supply more than 60% of the world’s refined lithium and cobalt—materials vital to the transition to cleaner energy sources—and approximately 80% of battery-grade graphite and rare earth elements until 2035.

Alicia García-Herrero, chief Asia-Pacific economist at the investment bank Natixis, said that Beijing’s tight grip on many critical industrial materials meant the West could not decouple from China in the short term, even with massive investment.

“It is not just a question of how much it will cost,” García-Herrero said. “It is also China’s capacity to intervene to block such decoupling, given its current control over supply in everything from rare earth processing to active pharmaceutical ingredients.”

According to the EY-Parthenon analysis, Chinese-made goods generally benefit from a factory-gate price advantage of between 20% and 100% compared to Western competitors. Consequently, reducing dependence on Chinese manufacturing is expected to drive up prices and increase inflation.

The EY-Parthenon report noted that Europe cutting its reliance on China could raise prices in critical sectors by 1% to 2.5%. Citing an analysis by the European Central Bank, the report warned this could cause inflation rates to remain permanently above the 2% targets set by the European Central Bank and the Bank of England.

According to the report, Western economies seeking a meaningful reduction in China dependence will need to invest heavily in factory and physical infrastructure, as well as workforce training and the automation of production processes.

Given the scale of the challenges, Persson said that “partial decoupling” was a more probable outcome. Under this scenario, companies would need to be selective about where they allocate resources to build resilience against potential bottlenecks controlled by China.

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China and Russia deploy submarines together in “Joint Sea-2026” drills

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13/07/2026

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The joint deployment and first-ever combined visual capturing of Chinese and Russian submarines during a bilateral military exercise marks a major breakthrough in underwater coordination and signals an unprecedented level of mutual strategic trust between the two powers, according to military analysts.

The maritime phase of the joint naval exercise “Joint Sea-2026,” conducted by China and Russia, concluded on Saturday. According to China Bugle, the official media organ of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) News and Media Center, submarines from both the Chinese and Russian navies were photographed together in the same frame for the first time during the drills.

Speaking to the Global Times, a military affairs expert said the development demonstrates a high level of mutual trust that goes far beyond ordinary bilateral relations.

During the exercises, Chinese and Russian naval units conducted drills covering submarine rescue, strikes on surface targets, air defense, and anti-missile operations. China Bugle reported that both sides deepened mutual trust and further enhanced their joint operational capabilities through highly effective coordination.

The drills employed a flexible planning approach and applied rigorous standards to operational coordination. The joint maneuvers were conducted without predetermined, fixed scenarios; instead, operations were dynamically adapted to real-time battlefield conditions, hydrometeorological factors, and other variable elements.

Participating forces were organized into mixed formations. By utilizing sea, air, and submarine platforms, the two militaries established a multi-domain, integrated combat system.

According to China Bugle, this integrated structure effectively tested both sides’ capabilities in joint reconnaissance and early warning, command coordination, and firepower strikes within complex electromagnetic environments.

During the air defense and anti-missile drills, Chinese and Russian vessels operated in close coordination with a clear division of tasks. Leveraging the distinct strengths of their respective weapon platforms, the forces successfully intercepted incoming targets in the shortest possible time, demonstrating the combined combat capability of the joint Chinese-Russian naval force.

Held regularly since 2012, the “Joint Sea” exercises have become a cornerstone platform for naval cooperation between China and Russia.

According to official statements, both sides deployed elite forces for this iteration of the drills, encompassing surface, underwater, aerial, and support assets. In particular, the participation of submarines and submarine rescue vessels indicates that bilateral naval cooperation continues to expand from surface operations to integrated surface and underwater combat.

Following reports that Chinese and Russian submarines had been captured in the same frame for the first time, Chinese military expert Wang Yunfei told the Global Times on Sunday that the event represents an extraordinary level of mutual trust.

Wang noted that joint submarine operations are exceptionally rare worldwide. By their very nature, submarines operate on the principle of stealth, and their acoustic signatures are guarded by every country as highly classified intelligence.

Pointing out that such vessels are rarely shown in close proximity to one another, Wang said the joint sighting of the two submarines indicates they were operating in close quarters.

Under these conditions, the expert noted, the acoustic signatures of the submarines—including not only their noise levels but also their frequency characteristics—could mutually expose secrets to one another.

Official footage of the exercise revealed that Russia’s improved Kilo-class conventional submarine, the Ufa, participated in the drills, while the Chinese side deployed an improved Type 039B conventional submarine.

According to Wang, when China previously operated Russian-built Kilo-class submarines alongside identical Russian vessels, the implications were different because the acoustic signatures of those platforms were already known to both parties.

However, Wang emphasized that on this occasion, China showcased its domestically developed Type 039B submarine—widely considered state-of-the-art globally—to Russia, reflecting a level of mutual trust that goes beyond standard military exchanges.

Wang also pointed out that the participation of submarines in joint exercises involves communication and data exchange, which serves as another key indicator of high-level mutual trust.

Communication between submarines is highly complex, Wang said, explaining that one method involves raising an antenna above the water’s surface at communication depth. The other method is underwater acoustic communication, where a connection is maintained using specialized equipment—a method that is technically far more challenging.

Regardless of the method used, Wang noted that both sides must share their technical communication characteristics, methods, and tactics with one another.

This level of sharing enables the parties to achieve a high degree of tactical coordination when facing common adversaries, the expert said.

It remains extremely rare for two submarines to participate in joint exercises, share communication data, and coordinate strikes against targets.

Wang said that the ability of China and Russia to achieve this reflects not only the high level of mutual trust between the two sides but also the strong self-confidence of the Chinese military in its own capabilities.

The expert added that this milestone serves as a positive starting point for increasing the depth and intensity of future joint maneuvers.

Following the conclusion of the drills, China Bugle reported that some of the participating forces will conduct joint naval patrols in relevant areas of the Pacific Ocean to continue contributing to regional and international peace and stability.

According to China’s official state news agency, Xinhua, China and Russia launched the “Joint Sea-2026” exercise on July 6 at a military port in Qingdao, located in eastern China’s Shandong province.

A joint command consisting of task forces from both countries’ navies was established to oversee the drills.

Xinhua reported that the exercise would be carried out in three distinct phases: the assembly of forces, port-based planning, and maritime operations.

With the maritime operations phase of the China-Russia “Joint Sea-2026” exercise now concluded, the Chinese Ministry of Defense issued a statement on Sunday.

The ministry stated that both parties will continue to adhere to the principles of openness, transparency, and mutual trust, while further expanding the scope and depth of their joint training.

The ministry added that both nations will make greater contributions to building a maritime community with a shared future and safeguarding global peace and stability.

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China weighs restricting foreign access to advanced AI models and tightening technology controls

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08/07/2026

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China is considering restricting overseas access to its most advanced artificial intelligence models, including designs that have not yet been publicly released.

According to a Reuters report citing three sources familiar with the matter, the government in Beijing is increasing its control mechanisms to protect the domestic AI sector and its proprietary technologies.

Officials from the Chinese Ministry of Commerce have held a series of meetings over the past month with the country’s leading AI developers and technology giants. Represented at these discussions were major corporations including e-commerce platform Alibaba, TikTok owner ByteDance, and information technology firm Z.ai.

The meetings focused on potential restrictions that could be imposed on the distribution of China’s most modern AI models.

Sources said that Beijing plans to increase criminal liabilities for the leak or theft of AI technologies, treating such actions as equivalent to violations of national security law.

Other topics discussed during the meetings included the introduction of additional limitations on the funding of China-based AI startups.

The final framework of the new measures has not yet been established. Sources indicated that the potential restrictions might only affect models developed in the future. The date on which these regulations would take effect remains unknown.

Following the launch of the Chinese-developed DeepSeek R1 model, the country’s AI solutions strengthened their position in the global market by offering low costs and high performance. Industry analysts note that blocking foreign users from accessing these technologies could impact the global AI market and increase costs for companies that rely on Chinese models.

Beijing continues to expand its oversight of the domestic AI industry. According to Reuters, authorities initiated investigations earlier this year into several Chinese AI companies that had relocated their operations abroad. Controls have also been tightened on commercial transactions involving technology, data, and national security.

According to a report by the Financial Times citing internal sources, Beijing is also discussing plans to reduce the number of publications that Chinese scientists submit to foreign academic journals.

The report emphasized that these discussions are driven by growing concerns over technology leaks and a desire to strengthen state control over the dissemination of scientific research results.

In 2024, Chinese academics authored approximately one-third of all publications indexed in the Science Citation Index (SCI) database, which encompasses leading international scientific journals.

Industry experts state that China is transitioning from its previous goal of expanding its international scientific presence to a new phase focused on controlling the usage of technologies developed within its borders. According to these experts, Beijing aims with these moves to both protect its national security and maintain its leverage in the global scientific community.

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