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Modi’s manifesto says little about his economic policies

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Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) unveiled its election manifesto on 14 April, just four days before the country’s 970 million voters go to the polls in the world’s biggest and longest election.

Critics say the document says “surprisingly little” about what economic policies the BJP will pursue if it wins another term in power as expected, apart from a promise to make India the world’s third largest economy with an annual gross domestic product of $3.7 trillion.

To achieve this, India would have to overtake Japan, with a GDP of $4.2 trillion, and Germany, with $4.5 trillion. But economists say this may not be too difficult a target, given that India has overtaken the UK, France, Italy and Brazil in recent years. However, the BJP manifesto gives no details of how Modi will achieve this, or how he will ensure that the country meets its target of making India a developed nation by 2047.

India’s economy grew 8.4% in the October-December quarter and 7.6% in the full fiscal year to March. This is an impressive growth rate by any standard.

The BJP manifesto, while highlighting the success of the Modi government in bringing India from the brink of economic fragility to global prominence, states that the next cabinet will stick to the path of fiscal consolidation, which should be reassuring to investors.

But while the document paints a rosy picture of the Modi government’s economic achievements to date, it is short on details of how the next cabinet will tackle the dangerous macroeconomic challenges facing the economy. These include worsening youth unemployment, sticky inflation, widening income and wealth inequality, and the squeeze on informal enterprises, which employ more than four-fifths of the country’s workforce.

Despite falling fertility rates and one of the lowest labour force participation rates in the world, youth unemployment continues to rise steadily. Even among young people with at least a secondary education, almost one in five is unemployed. At the same time, educated youth account for two-thirds of all unemployed youth, according to research by the International Labour Organization and the Indian Institute of Human Development.

Experts say that expanding production will not be enough to solve the problem. The sector, which accounted for between 12% and 14% of employment in the last 10 years of Modi’s rule, has grown very little despite increased import barriers and generous subsidies to select large companies to expand local production.

Household consumption is estimated to have grown by around 3% in the last financial year, which if true would be the smallest increase since 2002 outside the COVID pandemic.

The BJP manifesto is silent on how the party will address stagnant demand. Without faster demand growth, there will be no pick-up in private capital investment, which in turn will limit GDP growth.

Some local media expected the BJP to unveil plans for major reforms of archaic land and labour regulations. But infrastructure projects were announced, including the promise of more high-speed rail lines.

The document therefore does not appear to set out the BJP’s plan to address India’s long-term economic challenges.

Opposition campaigned ‘for the poor’

The Indian National Congress, the main opposition party, campaigned on a ‘pro-poor’ platform, promising to give 100,000 rupees ($1,200) a year to the country’s poorest households and extend crop price guarantees to farmers.

Congress is also proposing to conduct surveys to prepare for wealth redistribution measures.

According to the World Inequality Lab, the top 1% of Indians receive about 23% of the country’s annual national income and own 40% of the country’s wealth. Critics of the government, such as former Reserve Bank of India governor Duvvuri Subbarao, say India will remain a poor country even as it becomes the world’s third largest economy.

In terms of per capita income, India ranks 143rd in the world. This underscores the reality of growing inequality and shows that simply wanting to increase GDP further will not be enough to ensure the country’s economic health.

Similarly, spending more on repairing and upgrading basic infrastructure means spending less on improving and expanding health care and public education. The lack of adequate public services pushes all Indian households into expensive private sector options. As a result, many have little money left to spend on discretionary goods and services.

Despite this, the ruling party remains popular with voters and, judging by the polls, there seems little doubt that Modi will win support for a third term. However, experts are concerned that the Modi government, which is expected to be re-elected, lacks a coherent economic strategy to tackle the country’s key macroeconomic problems.

ASIA

China launches $138bn bond sale

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China will start selling the first batch of 1 trillion yuan ($138 billion) of ultra-long term private government bonds on Friday to help revive the economy.

The central government will begin such sales this year by issuing 30-year bonds, according to a statement from the Ministry of Finance. According to Bloomberg, this ends months of speculation about when the bonds, only the fourth of their kind in 26 years, will be launched after a sweeping plan was announced in March.

According to the report, President Xi Jinping’s government is stepping up financial support to help an economy under pressure from the housing crisis and weak consumer confidence. Government spending on infrastructure, which can be financed through bonds, will play a key role in helping China achieve its annual growth target of around 5 per cent, above economists’ forecasts.

Australia & New Zealand Banking Group’s Xing Zhaopeng said the increase in gross domestic product could be as much as 1 percentage point.

“The timing of the bond issue is likely aimed at offsetting the impact of protectionist tariffs the US has threatened to impose on Chinese goods,” Zhaopeng said, noting the uncertainty ahead of a Communist Party meeting on reforms in July.

The 20-year and 50-year bonds will be sold on 24 May and 14 June respectively. Bond auctions will continue until the last batch of 30-year bonds goes on sale in November. The ministry did not disclose the amount of bonds to be sold.

Bloomberg announced the private government bond sale on Monday. The issue will include 300 billion yuan of 20-year bonds, 600 billion yuan of 30-year bonds and 100 billion yuan of 50-year bonds, according to people familiar with the matter, who requested anonymity because the information is private.

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US, Australia, Japan and Philippines plan more naval exercises to counter Beijing’s influence

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The defence chiefs of the United States, Japan, Australia and the Philippines have announced plans to hold more naval exercises as they seek to increase cooperation against China.

The officials met at the US Marine Corps base Camp H.M. Smith in Hawaii for a series of bilateral and joint talks.

The meeting is part of US efforts to increase cooperation among its allies to counter Beijing’s influence in the region.

The quadrilateral talks come less than a year after the first quadrilateral meeting between the countries’ defence chiefs on the sidelines of the Asian security forum known as the Shangri-La Dialogue.

As tensions rise in the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea, where the four countries’ militaries conducted their first joint patrols in April, the countries are strengthening defence ties by focusing on maritime cooperation. This week, the US and the Philippines conducted live-fire exercises in the disputed waters, while four Chinese ships fired water cannon at a Philippine vessel for violating territorial waters.

US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin, who hosted the meeting, said at the joint press conference that the four countries wanted to “conduct more naval exercises and activities” to improve the interoperability of their forces.

Austin criticised China’s recent actions as “irresponsible behaviour” that “flouts international law” and recalled the mutual defence treaty with the Philippines: “I can only say that you have heard me and the President say many times that our commitment to the treaty is unwavering.”

Similarly, Philippine Defence Secretary Gilberto Teodoro Jr. called the discussion of hypothetical scenarios “unproductive”. He said the quadrilateral meeting was about sending a common message in the face of a “unilateral declaration by a single actor”.

Australian Defence Minister Richard Marles said his counterparts discussed the “increased tempo” of defence exercises in the face of global challenges to the “rules-based order”.

Japanese Defence Minister Minoru Kihara said the Mutual Access Agreement (RAA) negotiated with the Philippines will strengthen bilateral relations and help advance maritime cooperation among the four countries.

“We are united in strongly opposing any attempt to unilaterally change the status quo in the South China Sea through the use of force or any activity that would raise tensions in the region,” he said.

The bilateral meeting between Kihara and Austin followed a summit between US President Joe Biden and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida in Washington in April. The two sides also announced plans to hold a “2+2” meeting between their leaders and senior defence officials.

The defence ministers of the US, Japan and Australia also held their 13th trilateral defence ministers’ meeting and signed an agreement on defence science and technology cooperation.

Containment strategy

Beijing believes that Washington, through its allies in the region, is pursuing a strategy of containment of China and raising tensions in the Asia-Pacific.

In a speech last year, Chinese President Xi Jinping described the United States as “the power behind the containment, encirclement and suppression” of China. The Biden administration denies this.

Financial Times columnist Edward Luce, who was also a speechwriter for US Treasury Secretary Lawrence H. Summers during the Clinton administration, had previously taken up this containment debate.

Luce stated that the US policy of containment of China is now very obvious as follows: “The original idea of containment, set out in George Kennan’s 1947 Foreign Affairs article, was more modest than the undeclared containment that is now US policy.”

“Kennan’s advice was twofold: Stop the expansion of the Soviet empire; and promote Western democracy,” Luce wrote, describing the US approach to China today as “a higher level of containment”.

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Daesh claims gun attack killing seven worshippers in Afghan mosque

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The Daesh terrorist group has claimed responsibility for a gun attack on a minority Shiite mosque in western Afghanistan that killed seven people, including women and a kid.

The gunman stormed Imam Zaman mosque in Guzara district of Herat province and opened fire on worshippers as they were praying. Taliban Interior Ministry spokesman, Abdul Mateen Qani said that they have launched an investigation on the shooting. The Imam of the mosque was among those killed and the attacker fled the scene. Police in coordination with the defense forces are chasing the Daesh shooter.

I strongly condemn the attack on the Imam Zaman mosque, former Afghan president Hamid Karzai said on X. I consider this terrorist act to be against all religious and human standards. I have expressed my deepest condolences to the families of the victims of this tragic incident,” he furthered.

Unfortunately, once again, a number of our dear compatriots were martyred and a number of others were injured in a terrorist attack on the worshipers of the Imam Zaman mosque, said Dr. Abdullah Abdullah, former head of high peace council.

Daesh targeted defenseless worshippers

“While I consider the cowardly attack on our defenseless countrymen to be against Islamic and humanitarian standards, I pray for the martyrs and wish rapid recovery for the wounded.

The United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) also condemned the attack, calling for urgent protection measures for the country’s Shia communities.

UNAMA had reported  that at least seven people, including a child were killed in the attack.

Victims of of the deadly Imam Zaman Mosque attack in Herat were laid to rest.

The agency stressed the need for “investigations, accountability for perpetrators, and enhanced protection measures for Afghanistan’s Shia communities.”

Richard Bennett, the UN Special Rapporteur on human rights in Afghanistan said that violence against Shia Hazara worshippers must be stopped.

All Afghans must be able to pray in peace

“I condemn the killing of Shia Hazara worshippers at a mosque in Guzara, Herat. All Afghans must be able to pray in peace. I urge prevention, protection and justice for Hazara/Shia who continue to be targeted, including in Herat. Condolences to the families and community,” he said.

Countries like Turkey, Iran, Japan, and other regional countries also condemned the attack and assured to stand beside the Afghans in their fight against any sort of terrorist groups.

Daesh, or the Islamic State (IS) is considered as one of the biggest rivals of the Taliban as they frequently target schools, mosques, shrines, hospitals, public places, religious gatherings and sacred sites of the Shiite Muslims and Shiite areas throughout the country.

Shiitte mosque attack in Herat is caused to create fear among Hazara people

A female Hazara in a video message to Haraci, said that the recent Daesh attack on the Shiite mosque in Herat has created fear and panic among Hazaras and Shiites. She added that instead of condemning, the international community should act to prevent such attacks in the future.

Daesh has intensified deadly attacks against innocent Afghans since August 2021 when the Taliban seized power following the chaotic departure of the foreign troops from Afghanistan after 20 years.

Despite the Taliban claiming that they have maintained security, Daesh was able to carry several deadly attacks, even targeting high-ranking Taliban officials inside their offices.

Daesh killed Balkh governor inside his office, while three other Daesh bombers exploded their suicide vest among a gathering of people during funeral ceremony. Daesh had also shown capability to attack foreign missions in Kabul. Daesh claimed responsibility for the attack on Pakistan and Russian embassies in Kabul. Daesh also attacked a Kabul hotel famous for Chinese guests.

The Taliban has pledged to protect religious and ethnic minorities, but rights monitors say the Taliban are doing little to make good on those promises.

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