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Top 10% of earners drive US consumption as wealth gap challenges Trump’s economic narrative

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The economy of US President Donald Trump exceeded expectations in his first year back in office, but this situation applies primarily to America’s wealthiest households.

According to the Royal Bank of Canada, the top 10% income bracket in the US spent $20.3 trillion in the first half of 2025, a figure nearly equal to the $22.5 trillion spent by everyone else.

This spending was triggered by a buoyant stock market, high real estate prices, and solid wage increases for the wealthy. Bank of America notes that the net salaries of the highest account holders increased by 4% last year, while income growth for poorer households was only 1.4%.

This spending power has kept the Trump economy vibrant. The Department of Commerce reported on Tuesday that the US grew at an eye-catching rate of 4.3% in the third quarter, thanks to an increase in personal consumption. The President described this as the “Trump Economic Golden Age in full gear.”

However, these strong figures hide the extent to which the wealthy are driving growth. While business leaders from Manhattan to South Florida look optimistically toward the future, this view is not shared by most voters.

In polls, a majority of Americans say they are struggling under the pressure of rising living costs and a weakening labor market. The Federal Reserve Bank of Boston states that credit card debts of low-income consumers have increased “significantly” compared to the pre-pandemic period.

While growth and asset prices rise, Trump’s approval ratings are falling. For some allies, this situation is surprising.

Economist Stephen Moore, a former Trump advisor, claims, “All the talk about the cost of living surprises me. I don’t fully understand it because the economy is truly very strong right now. If the trend of the last six months continues, it will become increasingly difficult for Democrats to maintain their narrative that the economy is not doing well.”

Undoubtedly, most of the traditional characteristics of a generally healthy economy are present. Business is going very well for Wall Street banks and law firms, and investors are pouring hundreds of billions of dollars into risky artificial intelligence ventures that are creating a new generation of billionaires. According to one estimate, merger and acquisition activity will reach $2.3 trillion in 2025; this represents a 49% increase over last year’s figure, and the benefits of this increase are flowing disproportionately to high-net-worth investors.

Corporate profits showed an increase of over $166 billion in the third quarter, following a reported $6.8 billion increase in the previous three months.

Luxury hotels, Swiss watches, and premium credit cards continue to see strong demand despite negative signals from consumer surveys.

Richard Ramsden, a managing director and partner at Goldman Sachs who oversees the large-bank investment research unit, told reporters earlier this month that leaders of banks and asset management companies believe the US has a solid foundation and argued that the narrative regarding a K-shaped economy—meaning the financial situation of the rich improves while that of the poor worsens—is “not supported by the data.”

While wealthy consumers spend more, BofA’s data revealed that spending growth for low-income households has remained positive.

Separately, S&P Global analysts expect consumer spending to moderate next year, while also noting that US households have balance sheets that have been “strong for decades.”

Government officials are confident that the atmosphere will improve if the president’s tax policies lead to more jobs and higher net salaries.

Furthermore, it is hoped that measures such as the creation of Trump-branded investment accounts for newborns and the expansion of investment offerings for retirement plans will ensure that working-class Americans benefit more from Wall Street’s rise.

Steve Bannon, who served as chief strategist during Trump’s first term, said the president must “constantly emphasize” how the economy is growing and that higher wages will stem from the supply-side tax cuts in the law titled the Great Wonder Act, which was passed in July.

“Strong economic growth, more and better jobs, raises: this is what MAGA voted for, and this is what they expect,” Bannon said in an interview.

If the economy continues its current trajectory, this message may be in vain.

Analysts warn that consumer spending could weaken if employment remains slow and unemployment, which rose to 4.6% last month, continues to increase.

The JPMorganChase Institute found that income growth has been weak this year, especially for older workers, and that the balances of bank account holders have remained flat.

The American Financial Services Association, representing consumer credit companies, warned earlier this month that lenders are preparing for a deterioration in credit performance as subprime borrowers show signs of stress.

At the Yale CEO Conference held in Manhattan last week, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller, one of the finalists for the next presidency of the Central Bank, explained how the financial precipice has accelerated since the spring months.

“Wages are not changing. Surpluses have disappeared. Bank accounts have become closer to living paycheck to paycheck,” Waller, a former St. Louis Fed economist, told corporate executives gathered at the Ziegfeld Ballroom.

Despite this, Trump officials were encouraged by recent data showing a meaningful wage increase for non-supervisory employees last year. Although sentiment lags behind, stronger-than-expected holiday season retail sales and solid sales growth from major retailers show that Americans are still spending healthily.

Joseph Lavorgna, an advisor to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, said that if inflation continues to fall, real wage growth will also accelerate.

“To me, this is a recipe for a more broad-based and resilient economy that does not focus on the high-income group,” Lavorgna said.

America

US wealthy demolish multimillion-dollar mansions for land

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Wealthy buyers in the US are tearing down multimillion-dollar homes shortly after purchasing them for hundreds of millions of dollars.

According to a report by The Wall Street Journal, the trend is driven by a shortage of land in prestigious locations, particularly along coastlines.

For ultra-wealthy buyers, the prime factor has become the land’s location rather than the structure standing on it. After the acquired properties are flattened, newer, more modern homes are built on the cleared lots.

Drawing attention to the shift in the luxury real estate market, the report noted:

“The home itself, formerly the primary driver of an expensive real estate purchase, is now almost beside the point. Buyers are competing first and foremost for well-located land, situated on the ocean or a mountaintop.”

The newspaper cited moves by US billionaire William Lauder as an example. Lauder purchased the oceanfront estate of radio host Rush Limbaugh, who died in March 2023, for $155 million and had it completely demolished in July.

Lauder had previously torn down two homes situated on roughly 1.2 hectares of land along the Palm Beach coast. Having initially planned to construct his own residence on the parcel, Lauder subsequently sold the cleared plot for approximately $200 million.

Jonathan Miller, a real estate appraiser, stated that such transactions are becoming increasingly common as land prices rise.

Amid this momentum, estate agents have also begun marketing luxury homes directly as teardown lots.

Listings use artificial intelligence-generated imagery to showcase how the land would look without the structures on it.

Marketers avoid using the word “demolition” directly, resorting instead to terms such as “adaptive reuse”.

Teardown listings rise across luxury housing market

The trend is not confined to the coast and is spreading to other regions across the US.

Data from property brokerage Redfin reveals that references to demolishing buildings are becoming more frequent in sales listings.

The share of such listings exceeds 15% in the Bunker Hill Village area of Houston, while standing at 6.67% in Pimmit Hills, Virginia.

Dina Goldenteyer, a real estate agent working in Miami, remarked that serial demolitions have become more frequent because buyers no longer appreciate homes older than a decade.

Former retail executives Jamie Dooley and Christine Scott spent $3.7 million in 2020 to demolish a seaside home near Destin, Florida.

Although the couple spent five years building a modern home on the cleared site, they listed the resulting new structure with a demolition condition, citing the fact that no one wanted to buy the property as it stood.

William Paddock, an employee at the environmental consultancy WAP Sustainability, pointed to the environmental damage caused by this construction cycle.

Paddock emphasized that tearing down a home of roughly 1,000 square metres and replacing it with a new building of approximately 2,700 square metres generates a carbon footprint equivalent to the annual emissions of an average 250 American households.

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US inflation reaches 3.7% as midterm election campaign intensifies

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An uptick in September inflation as the US midterm elections approach has pushed the cost-of-living debate back to the centre of the agenda for Democrats seeking to regain control of Congress from Republicans.

Annual inflation stood at 3.7% in September, according to the Consumer Price Index published by the Bureau of Labour Statistics, with energy, petrol, and electricity costs rising on a monthly basis.

Food prices remained flat from August to September, recording a 2.5% increase compared with the same period last year.

Democrats are anchoring their election campaigns to pledges of easing the cost of living, blaming the price increases on President Donald Trump’s tariffs and the war with Iran.

Trump and Republicans, pointing to the numerous left-wing candidates who won primary elections this year, contend that the opposition has become captive to “communists” within the party.

When annual inflation stood at 2.4% in February, the US and Israel launched the Iran war on the final day of that month, and prices continued to climb throughout the conflict.

The recent acceleration has not entirely reversed the retreat from the 40-year peak of 9.1% recorded in June 2022; however, the rate has remained above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target for over five years.

Fed policymakers raised the benchmark interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point last month, citing the battle against stubborn inflation. Officials will convene again next week to consider whether to raise rates or hold them within the 3.75% to 4% target range.

Energy and fuel record sharpest increase since first month of war

In September, energy prices posted their largest monthly jump since March, the first full month of the war with Iran, climbing 20.4% year-on-year. Energy costs had risen 2.1% from July to August, after falling 1.5% from June to July and 5.7% from May to June.

Recent escalations in Iranian attacks on oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, alongside more frequent strikes by Ukrainian forces against Russian refineries, have strained global crude oil and refined product markets, driving up US petrol and diesel prices.

Petrol prices also recorded their sharpest monthly increase since the first month of the war, climbing 9.1% from August to September, bringing the annual increase to 35.3%.

American Automobile Association (AAA) data shows the average price of regular petrol across the US stands at $4.26 per gallon; while below the level of roughly $4.48 recorded a month ago, it remains more than $1.20 higher than a year earlier. Average gallon prices exceed $6 in California and $5 in both Washington state and Nevada.

Electricity prices rose 0.2% from August to September, offsetting the 0.2% decline between July and August, and were up 4.4% year-on-year.

Heavy power demand from new data centres is feeding through into local household electricity bills. Trump argued that companies must cover the cost of the electricity required by their data centres themselves.

In a post on Truth Social, Trump claimed that he was requiring large data centres to generate their own power and feed the surplus back into the local grid, suggesting this could bring about “a major drop” in electricity prices.

Used vehicle market posts monthly rise as food costs stabilise

The cost of food at home fell 0.1% month-on-month in September, while dining out increased 0.2%.

Egg prices dropped to $2.27 a dozen, falling roughly 35% compared with September 2025 and remaining well below the 20-year peak of $6.23 recorded in March 2025.

Ground beef prices rose roughly 2.4% compared with September 2025, but at $6.48 a pound, they remained below the 20-year high of $6.98 reached in June.

Chicken held steady at its year-earlier level of $2.06 per pound last month, having fluctuated between $2.01 and $2.09 since November 2024.

Used car and truck prices fell 1.5% compared with September 2025, but rose 0.7% month-on-month in September following 0.4% increases in both July and August.

Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, noted that the sector faces severe pressure stemming from a combination of expensive replacement parts and a shortage of skilled labour.

Speaking to The Hill, Long emphasised that every cost pressure across the market is being felt directly at local auto repair shops.

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Anthropic posts $80.7bn loss ahead of IPO as computing costs soar

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Anthropic, developer of the artificial intelligence model Claude, reported a net loss of $80.7 billion for the first six months of 2026 ending 30 June.

According to a report by The Wall Street Journal citing the company’s draft initial public offering prospectus, this recorded loss nearly doubled the $42 billion loss incurred across the entirety of 2025.

The vast majority of that enormous figure, accounting for $72 billion, stemmed from accounting-driven book-value write-downs.

In contrast, the company saw a sharp surge in revenue, with turnover in the first half of the year climbing to $16.3 billion from $1.1 billion in the same period of the prior year.

During this period, Anthropic spent approximately $9 billion on computing power and infrastructure needs, surpassing in just six months the $7.3 billion spent across the whole of 2025.

The company has commitments to pay roughly $450 billion over the next seven to 10 years under cloud service contracts.

Under these obligations, contracts are planned for $111 billion with Google Cloud, $110 billion with Amazon Web Services, and $31 billion with Microsoft.

Anthropic will also spend up to $86 billion by 2033 and 2034, respectively, to lease Nvidia chips through smaller AI-focused cloud providers Nscale and Lambda.

The company could spend an additional $750 billion in the coming years to expand its computing capacity.

Roughly a third of the draft IPO prospectus was dedicated directly to risk factors.

The document highlighted the possibility that models could cause tangible real-world harm, noting that artificial intelligence could exhibit a “self-preservation” tendency and produce responses resembling “blackmail”.

Anthropic warned that the scale of damage caused by an AI-driven “catastrophic event” could render insuring against such risks impossible.

According to market expectations, Anthropic’s IPO could rank among the largest transactions in history, potentially surpassing SpaceX’s record.

Following the market debut, the company’s market valuation is projected to reach up to $2 trillion.

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