Diplomacy
Trump envoy’s ‘productive’ meeting with Putin leads to new sanctions on India
US President Donald Trump described the August 6 meeting between his special representative, Steve Witkoff, and Russian President Vladimir Putin as “productive.”
In a statement on his Truth Social account, Trump said, “Significant progress has been made! I have since briefed some of our European allies.”
Stating that everyone agrees the conflict in Ukraine must end, Trump added, “We will be working on this in the coming days and weeks!”
Putin’s foreign policy advisor, Yuri Ushakov, also told the TASS news agency that the parties held constructive negotiations and exchanged “some signals” regarding the resolution of the Ukraine crisis.
Ushakov, who was present at the nearly three-hour meeting, stated that the parties discussed not only Ukraine but also the possibilities of developing strategic cooperation between Washington and Moscow.
Another participant in the talks was Kirill Dmitriev, head of the Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF) and the President’s special representative for investment and economic cooperation with foreign countries.
Dmitriev, who met Witkoff at the Vnukovo-2 government airport in the morning, later gave him a morning tour of Zaryadye Park.
After the talks at the Kremlin, Dmitriev commented on his Telegram channel, “The Russia-US constructive dialogue continues.”
According to a report by RIA Novosti, Witkoff spent 50 minutes at the American Embassy in Moscow before returning to the US.
The first step after the meeting was sanctions on India
Following the talks, a White House statement reported by Reuters said, “The meeting went well. Russia is ready for further engagement with the US. Secondary sanctions are still expected to come into effect on Friday [August 8].”
This date was the end of the 10-day period Trump had set for an agreement on Ukraine. The secondary sanctions reportedly include tariffs aimed at third countries trading with Russia.
In a statement on July 14, Trump had said that if no agreement was reached in Ukraine, the US planned to impose 100% tariffs on Russia’s trading partners, particularly China and India, the main buyers of its oil.
About two hours after the talks in Moscow concluded, an executive order by Trump imposing a 25% punitive tariff on India for purchasing oil and petroleum products from Russia was published on the White House website.
The order emphasized that these new tariffs would take effect 21 days after the document’s adoption.
Additionally, it was reported by Reuters that Trump held a phone call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on August 6. It was noted that the two leaders had also spoken the previous day.
Russia is focused on diversifying the bilateral talks agenda as much as possible
Speaking to the newspaper Vedomosti, Andrey Kortunov, an expert at the Valdai Discussion Club, said the negotiations in Moscow were a “crossroads” where all processes could go in one direction or another.
Kortunov noted that Russia is focused on diversifying the agenda of the bilateral talks, as Russia-US relations should not be limited to Ukraine. He added that there are many areas of potential interest for Moscow and Washington in terms of strategic cooperation, but it is unknown whether Trump views this as a complement to or an alternative to a resolution in Ukraine.
Viktoriya Zhuravlyova, head of the Center for North American Studies at the Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO) of the Russian Academy of Sciences, believes the meeting with Witkoff could be a mechanism for de-escalation.
Zhuravlyova emphasized that even without a breakthrough, this meeting is important for creating a direct exchange of ideas between the parties, which is a key factor in resolving such conflicts.
Zhuravlyova stated, “What is expected of Trump in the US is not cooperation with Russia. He is expected to either make progress in negotiations and resolve the conflict in Ukraine or to toughen his policy as promised. Therefore, the Ukraine crisis will continue to be an obstacle to broad cooperation between Russia and the US until it is resolved in some way.”
Dmitry Suslov, Deputy Director of the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the National Research University Higher School of Economics (HSE), noted that the Trump administration understands its options are limited and does not want to escalate tensions in relations with Russia.
According to Suslov, Washington will continue to support the negotiation process, sell weapons to Europeans, and likely impose symbolic sanctions against Russia and its key trading partners on August 8.
Suslov added that Witkoff might have reached an agreement with Moscow for a restrained response to potential new restrictions.
Trump’s representatives for Moscow and Kyiv
Following Trump’s election victory in November 2024, retired General Keith Kellogg was appointed as the special representative for the Russia-Ukraine settlement process. Witkoff was included in this process starting in February 2025.
According to information leaked to the press, Kellogg was tasked with communicating with Kyiv, while Witkoff was assigned to Moscow. This visit by Witkoff to the Russian capital is officially his fifth.
In the period from May to early August, Witkoff lagged behind Kellogg in the frequency of his public statements on Ukraine, and against this backdrop, Trump’s rhetoric toward Moscow had become relatively tougher.
Trump had hinted that the US might withdraw from its mediation role and had expressed his dissatisfaction with Putin due to the lack of sufficient progress in the negotiation process.
Diplomacy
Vance leads indirect push for US-Iran ceasefire and nuclear talks
US Vice-President JD Vance has been personally involved over the past two weeks in indirect talks with Iran aimed at securing a fresh ceasefire and restarting nuclear negotiations.
According to Axios, Vance’s intense engagement indicates that he has taken it upon himself to extract the US from the conflict, which he views as responsible for the Republican Party’s shocking losses in this week’s elections.
This elevates the latest round of indirect talks to the highest echelons of the administration.
US officials and regional sources state that Trump is currently willing to let diplomatic efforts run their course to see whether any agreement is achievable.
Asked by reporters on Friday what his message was to Iran, Trump said, “We are talking to them.”
According to sources with direct knowledge of the matter, Vance speaks almost daily with Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, Pakistan’s Chief of Army Staff Field Marshal Asim Munir, and other mediators regarding the negotiations with Iran.
White House envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, President Trump’s adviser and son-in-law, are also involved in the process.
Sources say Vance and the Qatari and Pakistani mediators have been discussing the possibility of holding a working-level technical meeting between the US and Iran in the coming days, though this has not yet materialized.
Before the war began in late February, Vance was among the most sceptical voices in Trump’s inner circle on the issue, advocating instead for a diplomatic solution.
In April, he led the US negotiating delegation at the Iran summit held in Islamabad and was personally involved in the talks that yielded a memorandum of understanding (MOU) signed between the US and Iran in June.
Vance subsequently headed the US delegation during a series of direct talks with Iran in Switzerland.
Two weeks ago, Vance sent a letter to Mohsen Rezaei, Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, proposing that direct negotiations resume.
Rezaei is one of the closest advisers to Iran’s Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei.
Iranian officials noted that Vance’s letter generated positive momentum toward restarting talks.
On Wednesday, Vance said the war was the primary reason for the Republicans’ repudiation at the polls.
Sources involved in mediation efforts report that while progress is being made, the process is moving very slowly.
On Friday evening, the prime minister of Qatar said, “Over the past few weeks, we worked with our colleagues in the US administration who have a sincere intention to contain the situation and de-escalate. Thanks to them and the voices of reason in Tehran, we prevented the situation from spinning out of control.”
The prime minister added that discussions with the Trump administration continued following the midterm elections, though they were not as active as in previous days “because there are other matters.”
Nevertheless, he noted that the US intention to find a diplomatic resolution “remains ongoing” and emphasized that an agreement is possible.
On Friday morning, Trump and the Emir of Qatar discussed Qatari efforts to bridge differences between the US and Iran as part of an accord.
According to a statement from his office, Sheikh Tamim emphasized the necessity of “pursuing dialogue and diplomatic channels to resolve differences, prevent the region from facing further escalation, and ensure freedom of maritime navigation as well as the security of energy supplies.”
Separately, Trump confirmed on Friday that the US military conducted a strike on an anti-aircraft missile launcher on Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz after it fired a missile at a US fighter jet.
Diplomacy
Ukraine faces demographic collapse as fertility rates slide
British magazine The Economist reported that mobilization, conflict casualties, and pervasive uncertainty have left Ukraine confronting the threat of demographic collapse.
According to data cited by the magazine, Ukraine’s fertility rate has declined from 1.2 children per woman in 2020 to between 0.8 and 0.9.
This rate marks a lower level than that of any major nation except South Korea.
In the first half of 2026, the number of deaths in Ukraine surpassed the number of newborn babies threefold.
The report noted that ever since independence was gained in 1991, the number of births in the country has lagged behind the number of deaths every year.
The Economist emphasized that the demographic collapse driven by the ongoing fighting constitutes an “existential threat.”
The magazine identified mass refugee migration as the principal driver of the population loss.
More than 5 million Ukrainians reside abroad, predominantly in Europe.
The proportion of those wishing to return among those who left the country is also steadily shrinking.
According to data from the Centre for Economic Strategy (CES), the share of those seeking to return dropped from 74% in 2022 to 43%.
The fact that the majority of refugees consist of Ukrainian children and women under the age of 44 further aggravates the demographic picture.
The Kyiv government decided to exempt men under the age of 25 from mobilization to alleviate the demographic decline.
The magazine reported, however, that many young people have fled the country, while those who remain do not plan to start families.
Projections cited in the report indicate that even if hostilities cease in the coming years, Ukraine can, at best, expect merely a deceleration of depopulation.
Olga Duhnich, an expert at the Ukraine-based think tank Frontier Institute, stated that the generation born in the 1990s and 2000s is the least populous in Ukraine’s modern history, meaning the country cannot expect a post-conflict baby boom.
The United Nations (UN) projects that Ukraine’s population will decline by 0.7% to 0.9% each year over the next two decades.
Under this projection, Ukraine’s population will fall to approximately 25 million by 2040.
If hostilities drag on, people are expected to abandon plans to have children, deepening the crisis even further.
Beyond exempting men under 25 from mobilization, the Kyiv government is rolling out various support packages to boost birth rates.
Under legislation enacted in the country, parents who have children receive a direct payment of 50,000 hryvnias (around $1,100).
Parents are also paid 7,000 hryvnias each month during the first year.
Other state programmes subsidize childcare costs, while Ukrainian soldiers are granted free freezing of egg and sperm cells.
Ukrainian Minister of Social Policy Denis Ulyutin said in May to the Livyi Bereh media outlet that roughly 22 to 25 million people lived in government-controlled territories.
Ulyutin characterized the prevailing picture by saying: “This is a catastrophe.”
Ella Libanova, Director of the Institute for Demography and Quality of Life Research, estimated the population at 29 million during the same period.
Libanova attributed the steep fall from a population of 30 million in 2025 to high death rates and the demographic crisis.
In a statement in October, Libanova announced that Ukraine’s population had slipped to 28.5 million.
Institute Director Libanova said: “The population is already at 28.5 million; we lost half a million people. We lost them, but thankfully this was still caused by migration rather than casualties.”
Diplomacy
Armenian opposition urged to form joint front against constitution
Narek Karapetyan, a lawmaker and head of the Strong Armenia faction in the Armenian parliament, has urged opposition parties to unite around four core principles set out in a joint declaration.
The key points of the declaration include resisting territorial concessions and blocking the adoption of a new constitution, which the opposition has termed the “Aliyev constitution”.
According to a report by Aysor.am, Narek Karapetyan stated that the opposition meeting was originally planned to be led by his uncle, businessman and Strong Armenia movement leader Samvel Karapetyan.
“We initiated the meeting, but the authorities took preemptive steps to prevent Samvel Karapetyan from launching the national unification process,” Narek Karapetyan said.
Noting that, despite these events, opposition representatives convened and signed a joint declaration based on four agreed articles, Narek Karapetyan invited other opposition forces and members of the public to join the alliance.
“We will not allow them to implement the Aliyev constitution in Armenia. We must unite,” Karapetyan said.
Ahead of these developments, Armenian National Security Service personnel detained Strong Armenia Party leader Samvel Karapetyan following a search of his home.
The party’s press secretary, Agavni Sukiasyan, announced that on the morning of the same day, the Investigative Committee of Armenia searched the homes of both Samvel Karapetyan and Narek Karapetyan.
In a report citing the Investigative Committee, Armenpress stated that Samvel Karapetyan was detained as part of a case involving allegations of causing large-scale financial damage to the Electric Networks of Armenia (ENA) company, embezzling entrusted property, and money laundering.
According to committee figures, the total damage inflicted on the company exceeds $179 million.
Narek Karapetyan’s home was also searched at the end of July as part of a criminal case.
On 22 July, Armenia’s Central Electoral Commission approved the Prosecutor General’s request to strip Narek Karapetyan of his parliamentary immunity, and Karapetyan was charged with large-scale money laundering.
According to information reported by Sputnik Armenia, the investigation is linked to charges brought against Strong Armenia supporter Aleksan Aleksanyan.
Investigative authorities allege that Aleksanyan received approximately $4.4 million and €230,000 from the Karapetyan-owned Tashir Foundation under the guise of gifts and loans.
Several criminal cases had previously been opened against Samvel Karapetyan.
In 2025, Karapetyan was charged with publicly calling for the violent seizure of power after backing the Armenian Apostolic Church, which had been criticized by Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan.
In January, legal proceedings were also launched against Karapetyan on charges of large-scale tax evasion and money laundering.
Separately, in early July 2025, the Armenian parliament approved a bill enabling the nationalization of the Electric Networks of Armenia company.
In March, Armenia’s Constitutional Court ruled that the nationalization process in question complied with the law.
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