INTERVIEW
‘Trump is the the biggest geopolitical risk for 2024’
Published
on
Timothy Ash, British economist and a senior sovereign strategist at RBC Bluebay Asset Management spoke to Harici. He is optimistic about the return of Turkish economy to macro Orthodoxy, said that, “Western capital will come back into Türkiye. Türkiye’s natural place is within the Western Alliance ultimately.”
Answering the questions of journalist Esra Karahindiba, Ash explains his evaluations and predictions about the future of the Turkish economy and the global economic situation.
‘Return to macro Orthodoxy will continue’
In August, you said that it was too early for Mehmet Şimşek and his team to give confidence to the international markets, pointed to the elections in March 2024, and said that Erdoğan could disrupt low interest-economic growth policies again (‘Ağbal Factor’). Just the opposite happened. As 2023 ends, what would you like to say about the future of the Turkish economy?
We are optimistic. I think institutional investors had an obviously very bad experience with the firing of Naci Ağbal, so they need to see that this team is in place for some time, they have been in place for some time. I’m encouraged actually by some of the changes at the Central Bank. It’s not been simply about Minister Şimşek, Governor Hafize Gaye Erkan been appointed but we’ve seen them been able to fill out key roles with very good people. Cevdet Akçay at the Central Bank Deputy Governor is very well known. Also, Hatice Karahan is again very well and very respected economist. So, we’re encouraged that Mehmet Şimşek has been given a very strong mandate. So, I am optimistic that actually we won’t really see much policy moderation around the local elections and I think this return to macro Orthodoxy will continue. We’re optimistic about next year. We are invested in Turkish credit. So, Euro bonds of companies and banks… The question is whether we invest in Lira assets. That’s a different issue. It’s not only the durability of the Orthodox policy in the team, but it’s also are you getting paid enough in terms of Turk government bonds. They pay 20 per cent. Is that enough to offset for inflation? That’s the institutional investors are asking that question now.
‘The market trusts Mehmet Şimşek’
Some of the Turkish economists say that high interest rates are not enough to recover Turkish economy. Do you agree or not?
It’s about credibility also. Mehmet Şimşek has credibility. The market trusts him. His team again very well respected. It’s about higher rates. It’s about macro-financial policy as well. Şimşek has spoken about a new customs arrangement perhaps with the European Union. That sends good confidence about Türkiye’s future orientation. So, things are looking good actually. We’re in a far better place than we imagined perhaps back last May or June. I think, now, next year 2024 should be a much better year for Türkiye.
‘The Gulf wants to see good macro policy in Türkiye’
One of the promises of Şimşek, Central Bank Governor Erkan and their team was to attract Gulf investments to Türkiye. As we approach the end of 2023, it appears that Türkiye has not yet been able to attract the expected investments from the Gulf. Is this situation related to Türkiye, or is there a general decline in foreign direct investments globally?
We have seen a really interesting change in Gulf investments globally. In the old years Saudis used to write big checks for friends to support friendly regimes around the world. Now, they want to be paid back their money. They want good investments. So, whether you see that with Saudi lending to Egypt or Pakistan, they want specific projects, they want good macro-policy and ultimately they want to be paid back. I mean it’s not charity. They want to see good macro policy in Türkiye. Şimşek is rolling that out. Türkiye has lots of interesting projects, I think potentially lots of interesting business opportunities. So, I think this long-term investment from the Gulf will come because I think ultimately Türkiye has lot of positives in terms of its things that attract investors to. I think the Gulf money will ultimately come. Yes. As long as Şimşek is allowed to continue with his very good policy changes that he’s rolling out.
But we don’t have the timeline.
I think certainly within the next year obviously there was this $51 billion agreement with UAE. That’s a lot of money. I’d imagine that that money will be invested over the medium to longer term, so, over a 5-year time horizon. I’m sure we will get some in the next year or so. Projects take time to be worked up. Also, I guess Türkiye has to prove itself also to those countries. If maybe the UEA wrote a check for 51 billion and gave it to Türkiye the without conditionality, I mean maybe there’d be some concern that there’d be scope for Türkiye to go back on the policy changes we’ve seen. They’re not stupid. The rulers of the Gulf regimes are very logical, practical. It’s their money, they’ve earned it. They want to get it paid back with a return. They want to make sure they’re investing in the right place with the right policies. So, you can understand their caution and their dispersing the money over maybe an extended period of time.
‘For China the key relationship is with the US’
Are we in a period where economies are determined by geopolitical tensions? The Ukraine war turned Europe’s energy policies upside down; US-China tensions are remaking development cooperation in Africa, Latin America and Asia. In this case, how do you foresee the economic indicators of a western Türkiye in cooperation with Eurasia for the coming years?
Geopolitics are a complication. It makes understanding the world more difficult. Geopolitical tensions usually happen, they’re usually unexpected, happen from nowhere like the Gaza, the Gaza Crisis. But actually, some things are encouraging in my mind. One is China relations are actually looking in a better place after the San Francisco Summit. There’s a lot of talk about the demise of the dollar. I don’t think that’s the case. If you look at the success of sanctions and the fact that the Western Alliance was unified in application of sanctions on Russia and that few countries are willing to go against sanctions, suggest that the US dollar is still strong. The way China played the crisis in Ukraine, China was very careful not to go out of its way to support Russia. The fact that Russia has been going to North Korea and Iran to find get munitions and military supplies. It means that China is not doing it. I think for China the key relationship is with the US. The US is still the biggest global economy. China has its own economic problems. This idea that ultimately China will get economic hegemony, will be the number one global economy, I don’t think that’s that certain anymore. The Chinese leadership have made mistakes over real estate, over the health sector, over Covid. They’re fallible like us. The US economy has been incredibly resilient. People have been expecting a recession. It doesn’t look like it’s going to be happening. It makes nice sound bites to talk about a new multi-polar world where the US is not this economic powerhouse. It is. And it’s still going to be the dominant global economic player for the next decade, I would say.
‘Western capital will come back into Türkiye’
There are some pools of business and capital like the Middle East, like China etc. But ultimately what we have learned from the last 5 years, 10 years of trade wars, of protectionism, of geopolitical sanctions; the US is still in a very strong position. Whether that lasts when after the next US elections is open to question. But two-third of investment trade and financing comes to Türkiye from the west, from Europe, from the US. Türkiye has most of its businesses with western countries, most of its financing. I think it’s good that Türkiye is going back to some kind of Orthodox policies. Western Capital will come back into Türkiye. Türkiye’s natural place is within the Western Alliance ultimately. Yes, it can diversify its trade and reduce its vulnerabilities by having lots of trade with Africa, with the Middle East etc. That’s good. Why not? But ultimately most of the money, most of the financing comes from the West. That’s the reality. You mentioned the Gulf money has been slow to come. With the right policies, institutional money will come very quickly back to Türkiye. If we see inflation back in single digits, with policy rates going lower, you could see $20 billion of institutional money from the West coming back into Türkiye. That’s possible. Türkiye was getting that. Look at 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011; the golden years of AKP rule in Türkiye. I think that’s absolutely possible.
‘The dollar is still king’
Going back to that you just mentioned about de-dollarization; that’s a big question. It is being discussed in Asian world and in China, in Russia, even certain Arab countries who sell their oil only with their own national currency. What do you think about the de-dollarization discussions? Do you think it can come up to happen one day?
The dollar is still king. I don’t think people particularly would like one in your pocket rather than a dollar. I mean in the end it’s trusting the institutions. In the end, international players trust western institutions. They trust the dollar. They trust the FED. They trust the European Central Bank. That’s the reality. I don’t think they particularly trust emerging market currencies that much. And China has still an emerging market currency. I think we’re a long way from having real rivals to the dollar and the euro.
‘The intention is not to crash Russia’
Let’s also talk about the sanctions that was one of the things you mentioned but at the end of the day when you go to Russia, you look at Russian economy’s numbers, yes, there are sanctions. They’re out of the international banking system and etc. They cannot export certain things but you see that Western sanctions could not harm Russian economy as much as they wanted to succeed. Why is that?
Well, sanctions are a complicated business. When you impose sanctions, you want to hurt the country, you’re sanctioning more than you. We’re in a global economy. Russia is integrated into global markets. The West was very careful not to be overly disruptive to global markets. So, the intention is not to crash Russia, not to crash the Russian economy that has global impact. So, you got to be very careful how you roll these things out. I ultimately think sanctions are weakening Russia. You’ve seen capital flights. You have seen human brain drain out of Russia. Russia has lost about 300 billion of its foreign exchange reserves. The ruble has weakened. Türkiye should know this; a currency weakens because ultimately your balance of payments is not sustainable. The ruble has gone from 50 to 100, it suggests to me that actually it’s Russia’s not winning. I mean strong countries have strong currencies. The ruble is not strong. Also, the fact that Russia is spending so much time lobbying gang sanctions suggest it’s not working. Sanctioned countries like Iran, Iraq, North Korea, Venezuela, Cuba… They survive. I mean countries’ economies don’t stop. They learn how to work around sanctions. And sanctions are a constant iteration. The target constantly does things to try and get around them. You have to tighten them. This is what it is. But ultimately is Russia a good place to do business? Is Russia a place that international business wants to invest in? No. What does that mean? Ultimately lower longer-term growth and decline. Russia will not be able to regenerate its military machine as quickly as he wants to, because of Western sanctions. So, sanctions are not a silver bullet. They are one tool in the Western’s armory. We have an interest in the west I think in weakening Russia because Russia is a threat it’s invaded Ukraine. It’s been a bad global player, intervention in Syria, intervened in Georgia and plenty of places. We want that to stop. It’s a threat to us. It’s a threat to the western system and western liberal market and democracy. We need to weaken Russia’s military industrial complex so the sanctions have to remain in place. That’s the reality.
What David Cameron said in Washington is actually pointing out the Western countries like Britain and the US becoming crueler than Russia itself because -I’m paraphrasing- he said “we are spending only 10% of our defense budget and we are using the courage and bravery of Ukrainian men and we are harming Russia’s human force and armed force reducing them 50% comparing to prior to pre-war situation.” That was terrifying.
I mean Ukrainians are fighting not because we give them the money or we sanction Russia. They’re fighting to defend their own country. Because Russia has invaded. Russia stole Crimea. Crimea is not Russian. If Ukrainians want, if Ukrainians are happy for Russian dominance and rule, they’ll lay down their arms and not fight. They are fighting so they’re fighting for their own country because Russia’s invaded. That’s the reality. Sure, it’s sad that Western support has not been stronger for Ukraine. I think if we’d have provided weapons earlier, the Ukrainians would have been able to push Russia back sooner. That’s our fault.
‘We need to do more to support the Ukrainians’
But what Cameron says is something else. You’re just using Ukrainians. You’re just letting them to fight and die for the advantage of the US and Britain.
I can’t comment on what he said. I didn’t hear the phrase. But, look, the reality is Ukrainians are dying to defend us. That’s a fact. They they’re fighting to defend themselves, their own country. But Ukraine is the front line for Poland, for the Baltic states, for Western Europe. If Putin wins in Ukraine, he’ll go further. He’ll do more stuff. So, you’re right. I mean, Cameron’s point was that we need to do more to support the Ukrainians because they’re not just defending themselves, they’re defending us. That’s a fact.
He said “this is a great investment” at the end of his sentences.
I would agree with him. It’s the best investment in our defense. Helping the Ukrainians stop the Russians. From a Turkish perspective, is a Russian victory in Ukraine a good thing that Russia captures the whole of Ukraine dominates more of the Black Sea? I don’t think Russia will then stop being an aggressive power in your region around the Black Sea. Putin has proven that he’s not a global player. He doesn’t play by the rules. He wants to expand Russia’s borders. So, I think, the west and Türkiye have an interest in stopping Putin and Ukrainians are helping us do that.
‘US invasion of Iraq was an error’
So, I’m not going to ask you about the US was invading Afghanistan and Iraq and etc. But this is what big global players do to the world.
Well, I didn’t support the US personally. I didn’t support the US invasion of Iraq in 2003. It was counterproductive. That’s my personal view. It was a mistake. Many British people didn’t support it. Many European countries didn’t support it. That was a Tony Blair, George Bush decision. It was an error. Afghanistan… Usama Bin Laden committed a terrorist attack a 9/11 on the US. I think the US had a reason to go into Afghanistan to defeat al-Qaeda in Afghanistan. Correct. Iraq was a totally different story. Now, the West have done many mistakes globally. I said I was critical of US invasion of Iraq in 2003. I disagree with how the west have managed the crisis in Gaza. There should be a ceasefire. There needs to be a political solution. Palestinians have same rights as Israelis. I agree with that. But it doesn’t distract from the fact that Ukraine has been an independent state for 30 years. Russia has invaded Ukraine. It has taken Ukrainian territory that is not Russia’s. It has murdered thousands of civilians as many Palestinians have died in Gaza as well. Remember, Putin did exactly the same in Syria. Russia and Assad, Russian bombs killed many Syrian civilians in Syria. The West’s mistake was that we didn’t do anything about it. Obama’s famous red lines… We should have known, we should have learned already. He did in Grozny in his own country in Chechenia. This is a bad guy. We should recognize that. Finally, the west should wake up to the fact that we need to stop this guy, and Türkiye should too. So, I mean the fact that the West has made mistakes in Iraq and is now making mistakes in Gaza, doesn’t mean that the Ukrainians don’t have a right to defend their own country and that Russia has a right to take Ukraine. So it doesn’t mean that we should stop.
‘Expanding BRICS to include Iran is not a good idea’
Okay. Let’s go back to economics. Can you comment about the BRICS and the global South are they kind of in near future going to be dominating the global economy also because the rise of India, the rise of China… And the US used to have 75% of the world economics but we don’t have that balance anymore. Things are changing. The economy, the global economy is also changing. Can you comment on the role of BRICS and Global south?
Well, BRICS… I mean what has it achieved particularly? I don’t know how long it’s been existed? In 10 years or whatever? Actually, what is it? What is BRICS entity? It’s been expanded. I mean, is expanding BRICS to include Iran a good idea? I don’t particularly think so. India was not particularly happy with some of the countries that were added to the list. You explain to me what BRICS really is. Türkiye is not a member of it. I think we’ve seen global growth. Energy markets have been growing very rapidly. We’ve seen new senses of economic power and diversification. That’s all good. Global diversification is a good idea. Too much power in the US or whatever is a more balanced global story is definitely a good idea. What we’ve learned in recent years has been that China is not doing that well. I mean, it’s making made a bad decision around Covid, bad decisions about real estate now, its growth model is in question. So, I’m not sure… In the end the US economy has proved very durable, say, no recession.
‘The pluses and negatives about the Belt and Road’
Can you comment on One Belt One Road project? China is actually, even though you say that it’s not performing super, by this project it’s causing interdependency in the region. And it’s using this project as a leverage for growing its own economy. This is something positive from Chinese perspective. And can you comment in the long term will this help China’s economy to grow globally?
Well, there have been positives and negatives about “One Belt One Road”. Clearly, it’s given capital to poor countries so they can develop infrastructure. That’s been good. The problem is it’s burdened a lot of the countries with debt. Recently, a lot of the countries that borrowed from China such as Zambia and Sri Lanka have been gone in debt problems. Pakistan is another example. Unfortunately, “the One Belt One Road” model has been lend the country’s money at the price of Chinese market access. I mean that’s the price. The question is whether Chinese goods come in and often destroy a lot of domestic industry. It’s the track record has been that it’s destroyed countries export potential. They have a lot of debt but they can’t pay it back because Chinese goods have come in and made local goods not competitive. Pakistan’s a great example. Pakistan borrowed a lot of money, got some infrastructure, built some stuff, some power generation stuff. But actually, Chinese goods have come and destroyed, say, the Pakistan shoe industry which used to be a big export. And now they can’t compete. So, there are challenges. It’s there the way it’s been done has probably been not the best it can be. China is now having to address the debt problems that it’s created in countries like Zambia and Sri Lanka and possibly Pakistan. I said, the pluses and negatives about it.
‘I am pretty worried about 2050’
Lastly, can you give me your brief foresight about 2050? How do you see global economies picture? Who is going to be where and how?
Wow, 2050. I mean I am pretty worried. I mean, climate change what we seeing the lack of… I’m not particularly an environmental specialist but it must be clear to everyone. Climate change, climate crisis every year is getting more difficult. We have the US presidential elections. Trump is coming in. That’s probably the biggest risk. I did a survey on my Twitter account. It’ the biggest geopolitical risk next year. I think the biggest number was the Trump presidency. What that means? US… You knw, I am British. I’m not a big fan of the US. But is the world… Is an isolationist US that the US that withdraws from international diplomacy a good is that actually a good thing? We can criticize the US in many places like the Middle East in terms of policy probably. But if it steps back, it’s less multilateralism. Climate change needs a multilateral approach. Trump doesn’t believe in any of that. Is that going to be good? Or is the US becoming more protectionist under a Trump presidency? Is that a good thing? I don’t know. So, the world’s looking pretty concerning. I have to say. It’s 2050 is quite a long way away but at the moment with climate change that looks worrying for our children, I think.
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INTERVIEW
‘China will be the primary international issue for the second Trump term’
Published
4 days agoon
18/12/2024Guy B. Roberts, one of the most influential figures in the Trump administration, former Assistant Secretary of Defense and former Deputy Secretary General at NATO, spoke to Harici: “China will be, I think, the primary international issue for the United States. The various statements by the leadership in China indicate that there will continue to be a strong push to fully integrate Taiwan within the Chinese political structure. I think that will be one of the big challenges in the first year of the Trump administration.”
Under former President Donald Trump, Guy B. Roberts served as Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Nuclear, Chemical and Biological Defense Programs and was former Deputy Secretary General at NATO for weapons of mass destruction defense.
Guy B. Roberts answered Dr. Esra Karahindiba’s questions on the expectations for the second Trump term in terms of foreign and domestic policy.
I know that you have been closely working with Donald Trump in his previous cabinet as you were Assistant Deputy Secretary of Defense. You know how his policies were before, and you may foresee how it’s going to continue from January. What is your primary expectation at this point?
Well, it’s actually quite exciting because I think that President Trump has really made it clear that he intends to follow through on all of his campaign promises. He’ll likely focus almost immediately on the immigration issue—the illegal immigration into the United States—and also on revamping the tax structure to maximize tax reductions for middle-class Americans.
On the international side, I fully expect him to put pressure on allies and partners to do more for their defense and meet the commitments they’ve made regarding spending 2% or more of their GDP on defense. That was a key element in his first administration, and I actually was with him at NATO headquarters, where we talked at length about the need for our allies to step up. Once he gets his team in place, I see those things being critical upfront. Of course, the U.S. system is such that it’ll take probably six months before that happens.
Let’s talk about Ukraine. Trump promised to end the Ukraine war, stating he could do so in 24 hours. His aides continue to repeat this claim today. Considering the war is taking a negative turn for Ukraine in recent months, will Trump be able to bring peace to Ukraine? Also, do you think Russian President Vladimir Putin will accept a ceasefire or a peace deal?
That’s the real challenge. I think it’s unrealistic to expect that he can resolve this in 24 hours, as President Trump claims. It’s much more complicated than that. However, I do think he will engage directly with President Putin. I can see that happening, where he’ll pressure Putin to agree to a ceasefire and take steps toward resolving this issue.
Ukraine may not be enthusiastic about giving up territory, but I do think that given the situation in the situation such as the introduction of new weapons systems, the recent intermediate ballistic missiles that Russians fired on Ukraine, Ukraine’s invasion of Kursk region of Russia can set the stage for quid pro quo type of negotiation where each side gives up something at least at the beginning in return for a ceasefire. Peace, I believe, is going to take much longer than 24 hours.
President Biden, nearing the end of his term, has made some significant moves that could complicate things for Trump. For instance, he signed a bill allowing Ukraine to use U.S.-made long-range missiles against Russia. Secondly, he sanctioned Gazprombank, which is crucial for Russian international money transfers and energy trade. Several other banks are placed in sanction list. What is Biden trying to do just before leaving his post? Is he leaving some bombs in the hands of Trump?
I believe that’s certainly in the back of his mind. He’s setting the stage for successful negotiations, whether he wants to give Trump the credit or not. His administration will probably deny that. I do think that given the kinds of things the long-range fires that he’s now authorized in, the additional increases in military hardware that he’s agreed to and his encouragement by other allies to do the same, is helping and will help in arriving at a successful ceasefire negotiation.
About Trump’s upcoming second term presidency, European leaders were not really enthusiastic and they’re not happy. Some of them are not happy that president-elect Trump is going to return to White House. What kind of reorganization do you anticipate from Europe to a new Trump era? From an alliance standpoint, the Secretary General Rutte has been a very enthusiastic supporter and a campaigner, if you will, just like his predecessor, Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg to see that the Allies do more. I think overall they have been doing more. I mean, we’ve had, I believe, over 21 countries now meeting the 2% military spending on GDP, and the others are on the road to doing so. The newer allies, like Finland and Sweden, have shown very robust spending on defense and training, even to the point of producing manuals for the population to undertake certain activities in the event there should actually be a war. That, I think, has deterrence value. The message being sent by the alliance is that we are an alliance, and that if you cross that line and attack any of us, you have to face all of us. Likewise, we have seen in the Indo-Pasific region reaching out to building a coalition with partners in the region including of course Australia and New Zealand but also Vietnam. We just recently sold them some training jets and other countries as well. The Trump Administration will probably be less focused on Alliance building and more focused on one-on-one relationships that are self-supporting in terms of defense. That might be a shift in what we’ll see happening between the Trump and Biden administrations.
You mean that Trump will prefer a personal diplomacy instead of a corporate diplomacy.
Yes, I think whereas Biden administration has been building coalition for example we have The Five Eyes, a group of countries reaching out to build a new interconnected relationship very similar to similar actually to what was attempted back in the late 50s and early 60s of something called SETO, the Southeast Asia Treaty Organization which was tried to mimic the NATO alliance. For a variety of reasons SETO didn’t work out and it fell apart.
But now that be in light of the Chinese aggressive behavior and it’s claims over the South China Sea and other areas, its belligerency against Taiwan and its refusal to agree to or accept the opinions by the international court of justice on the law of sea claims, the Hostile relationship they’ve had with the Philippines, so outlining islands all of that makes that particular region a potential hotspot. The recognition that the only way that there’s going to be an ability to stop and deter China from continuing and acting in that way is to build these relationships. And I think you’ll see a lot of enthusiasm for doing so.
Talking about personal diplomacy and personal relationships how would you describe a potential relationship between Trump and Xi Jinping, Trump and Macron, Trump and President Erdogan?
That’s a very important area, and I’m not sure exactly how the Trump Administration is going to proceed. However, I believe that President Trump places a lot of value on personal relationships with national leaders. That’s why I think he’s more comfortable and will be more comfortable building one-on-one relationships as opposed to forming large partnerships.
I would expect to see much more of this one-on-one approach, with Trump meeting with various presidents and prime ministers throughout the region that he considers key to establishing strategic stability, whether it be in Southeast Asia, the alliance partnership, the Mediterranean, or elsewhere. I think we can expect him to be much more proactive in building personal relationships than we saw in the Biden Administration.
Okay, talking about Trump and Erdoğan, and the cooperation and challenges between the US and Turkey, let’s discuss that a bit. Especially the PYD issue, which is a significant issue for Turkey. The US is trying to beat one terror group by using another, particularly as Turkey is a NATO ally but the US still ignores regarding Ankara’s concerns about the PYD. That’s Turkey’s number one issue.
What do you think about the F-35 issue? Could Turkey rejoin the F-35 program? What do you think about those main issues? And finally, how do you see Turkey’s role as a facilitator in the Middle East, especially in bringing peace to Palestine and ending the war with Israel?
Well, you have just asked me a question that could take the entire day to answer.
Looking at the relationship with Turkey and its leadership, I believe Turkey is a critical partner in ensuring peace and stability in the region. At the same time, there is a lot of turmoil. One major issue is the apparent strengthening of Turkey’s relationships with Russia and China in term long term, which is inconsistent with NATO’s position on Russia’s aggression against Ukraine and Iran’s support for Russia by providing drones and missiles that we’ve already seen used on the battlefield. There’s also significant political turmoil within Turkey at the moment, you know better than I. One unresolved issue is what to do with the two million displaced people as a result of various wars in the region. I think President Trump would be very interested in meeting with Erdoğan to discuss resolving the Syria problem. Trump is likely looking for an exit strategy that would allow US forces to leave that particular area of the Middle East. During the campaign, he referred to such areas as “Forever Wars”, where the US is militarily involved in various regions globally. Regarding Hamas, Hezbollah, and other terrorist groups, those are major challenges. I was very hopeful that the Abraham Accords would be the approach that the whole region would take. This, again, was a Trump initiative during his first administration, involving countries like Israel, the UAE, Sudan, and I believe Morocco. They signed a peace treaty in which they promised to work together to develop economically, scientifically, and in engineering, as well as to maintain and create an environment for peace and security in the region, free from terrorist activities and hatred that have plagued the past several decades. To the point where I saw a country like Saudi Arabia even considering joining this process, it is now all on hold as a result of the Hamas attack on Israel and the response by Israel, which many people consider far excessive to what had happened.
It’s really interesting. I interviewed you in Ankara before, as you may remember. It was a one-hour interview, and we discussed this topic. I don’t want to repeat the same thing; perhaps our audience can watch that episode again. But again, like all the Western discourse, they repeat the same thing as if everything started with the Hamas attack on October 7th. Nobody talks about what has been happening since 1948. Okay, I’m the moderator and the presenter but I want to contribute to this discussion. I really don’t understand why, if the US government is willing to make peace in the region with the Abraham Accords and bring everyone together for a peaceful period, the US does not address Palestine’s need for freedom according to UN resolutions. Under these oppressions since 1948, Palestine has not been given that freedom. The two-state solution is still pending. How many people were injured or killed on October 7? I don’t know the exact number. But now, according to international organizations’ reports, almost 100,000 people have died in Gaza, including those in the West Bank. The West Bank is still witnessing numerous settlements. What do settlements mean? They are taking people’s lands and homes, creating a situation where peace cannot exist. Why doesn’t the US push Israel to implement the two-state solution to bring peace to the Middle East?
Well, that’s a very good question and needs to be addressed. The challenge is that I wouldn’t go back to 1948; I’d go back to 1917 and the Balfour Declaration, which created the environment we are in today. That declaration guaranteed a Jewish homeland. The problem is that you’ve got groups like Hamas, the Palestinian Authority, and others with charters stating that their goal is to exterminate Israel. When that’s a primary goal, it’s very difficult to sit across the table and negotiate a peace agreement. If we got beyond that and all players in the region agreed to Israel’s right to exist, I personally believe that all the issues you mentioned would be subject to negotiation. I think the Israelis would give up quite a bit to have a guarantee that there wouldn’t be hundreds of rockets fired into their territory and that there wouldn’t be terrorist attacks all the time.
Recognition of Israel as a legitimate state with a right to exist would open the door to negotiations. I think everything else would be subject to negotiation, and I think they’d give up a lot. But when you’re at that particular point, and again, you have groups engaging in massive human rights violations—and I certainly wouldn’t put it past the fact that both sides have committed law of war or humanitarian violations—it creates an environment where people are consumed with hatred. As a result, that attitude gets passed on to the next generation, and 10 years from now, we’ll have another intifada or a similar kind of situation where people are already at each other’s throats. To sit here and say, ‘We can come up with a solution’ is absolutely right—we can come up with a solution. But there’s no willingness on the part of anybody to sit down and say, ‘Okay, let’s come up with a good deal.’ And that just doesn’t seem to be happening. I wish it would. I think the Trump administration, again, with President Trump’s personal intervention, has a great opportunity to negotiate some of the things you mentioned as enticement to bring everyone to the table. We’ve had people come to the table before. In the past, we sat down and tried to hammer out agreements regarding weapons of mass destruction in the Middle East or arms control. We came up with some great ideas—they’re all out there. It just takes political will to implement them.
Unfortunately, there is no political will to do it. So, we just have to keep trying and build consensus among the region’s leaders that it’s in their best interest—and the people’s best interest—to sit down and craft a lasting peace. But whether that will happen, I have to say, after 40 years of looking at this issue, the likelihood is that we’ll face another cycle of violence in 10 years. That’s just the way it is in that region.
But we have the reality in the International Criminal Court, which announced an arrest warrant for Netanyahu, the Israeli Prime Minister, because of war crimes. This is the reality—we’re talking about dozens of thousands of people. We always say 50,000 people, but it is almost 100,000 people, and that is really insane. If you don’t want war in the region, the main issue is: with whom do you have war? With Iran, Lebanon, Hezbollah? You don’t like the Muslim Brotherhood, etc., but all of these are connected to the issue of a free state of Palestine. It’s not happening this way. It’s not going to happen. I don’t want to go deep into this discussion because it has no end.
So, in our last five minutes, I’d like to go back to Trump’s foreign policy. He was really pro-Israel in his first term and moved the embassy to Jerusalem. But later on, he also had negative moments with Netanyahu. For the 2024 campaign, he has garnered greater Israeli support this time around. How will this affect his policies towards Iran and the Middle East in general?
Well, yes. I mean, the primary player in the area right now is, in fact, Iran, because it is recognized as the number one supporter of international terrorism. This has been recognized by the Gulf Cooperation Council. They support Hamas and Hezbollah, both identified as international terrorist organizations. Coupled with the firing of rockets from Iran into Israel, which in turn creates an Israeli response, the spiral of violence continues. This needs to be stopped, and there are ways to work towards peaceful coexistence. But as we know, the rhetoric in Iran is “death to Israel, death to the United States.” That kind of attitude does not make peace negotiations conducive. I wish I could give an answer that says, “This is the solution, and it will be embraced by everyone.” But, as you said, we could talk for hours about the problems and challenges in the Middle East. For example, in Lebanon, I’m watching what’s going on, and I’m actually thinking back to 1982 when I was in Lebanon. We had an attempt to maintain peace among the various groups, and then we had the Israelis invading Beirut, creating a siege situation, cutting things off. It feels like déjà vu all over again. How can we stop the cycle of violence? It really is beyond me. I’ve been dealing with this issue for a long time, and every time we came up with solutions, those solutions were quickly ignored. Hatred then became prominent. So, we just have to keep trying and, hopefully, someday we’ll get to that point.
Okay, let’s hope. My last question is on relations with China. Trump’s cabinet has hawkish figures who are strongly against China. Trump promised a 60% tax on China, which is a big concern. How do you think U.S.-China relations will progress under a second Trump term?
China will be, I think, the primary international issue for the United States. China’s long-term strategy is clear, and President Xi has made no secret of his ambition for China to become the world’s hegemon by 2049. They made statements to that effect and don’t hide it. They have a very aggressive policy of reaching out to multiple countries to build relationships through loans and various other economic incentives. They have also made claims in the South China Sea, which are very destabilizing. These claims are inconsistent with recognized international law of the sea. They have tried to harass many countries in the region over their territorial sea claims.
This has resulted in countries like Vietnam building a strong relationship with the United States. During one of my last trips as Assistant Secretary of Defense to Hanoi, I found the Vietnamese very enthusiastic about working with the U.S especially on defense sector. Other countries in the region feel the same way due to Chinese encroachment and bullying. China has also built a strong global network, acquiring port facilities in the Panama Canal, the Suez Canal area, the Straits of Malacca, and other choke points. They have created a very strong presence which in a hostile environment could be a way to strangle the world economy. We see these kinds of things happening and recognize within the United States that there are activities on the part of China that have a negative impact on national security and the collective security relationship around the world. I think we’ll see a much more active and proactive confrontation of China on these issues. There are some very big flashpoints or hot points, with Taiwan probably being the number one at the moment. The various statements by the leadership in China indicate that there will continue to be a strong push to fully integrate Taiwan within the Chinese political structure. I think that will be one of the big challenges in the first year of the Trump administration.
INTERVIEW
‘Indigenous peoples standing to fight against colonialism and imperialism’
Published
2 weeks agoon
10/12/2024In Venezuela, as well as in much of Latin America that was colonized by the Spanish empire more than five centuries ago, the month of October represents a date to remember and take pride in the indigenous roots of the American continent, called by the ancestral peoples “Abya Yala”. However, even today, 500 years after the arrival of Christopher Columbus, Spain continues without recognizing the genocide of the native peoples and their cultures, nor does it recognize the plundering of the riches of these lands. Currently, the empire is represented by another hegemonic power, the United States, and by another type of colonialism, the culture of the “American Dream” that seems more like a nightmare, but the threat to indigenous peoples, as well as Afro-descendant peoples that makes up Venezuela, continues to be the same. And in the face of this imperial and colonialist threat, Venezuela and other countries of the Abya Yala are struggling, resisting and winning the battle.
Within the framework of the Day of Indigenous Resistance in Venezuela, which since 2002 has been commemorated every October 12, we interviewed Clara Vidal, Minister of Indigenous Peoples of Venezuela. Vidal is originally from the Kariña indigenous people, based in the state of Sucre, eastern Venezuela, and has been Minister for Indigenous Peoples since 2022.
Why does Venezuela commemorate the Day of Indigenous Resistance?
Today we reflect on the importance of that tragic date, while today Spain commemorates a national holiday, they call it “Hispanic Day”, with joy, with airplanes, etc. That is, Spain celebrates the death of 90 million indigenous people, they are celebrating the greatest genocide in the history of humanity.
But we from Venezuela commemorate the 532 years of the beginning of the resistance of the indigenous peoples who to this day are in battle for a horizon and a victorious future that awaits us.
So today’s reflection is that nothing and no one, not the Spanish monarchy, nor the decadent U.S. empire will be able to defeat us, because 200 years ago we expelled them from these lands, because we do not want more colonialism or imperialism, we want to be sovereign, free and independent.
What are the references of the indigenous peoples in Venezuela today? And what is its importance?
Well, let me say that we are today in the land of Commander Hugo Chávez, of the Liberator Simón Bolívar, of the Great Chief of Chiefs Cacique Guaicaipuro, the leader of the resistance of the indigenous peoples, because 532 years ago took place the invasion of our lands, and practically 90 million indigenous brothers were exterminated by an European Empire.
Precisely, according to what we have experienced and what our ancestors experienced, we can say that we are a free, sovereign and independent country, that throughout our history we are not going to allow any empire to controls us, dominates us, and that is why we have among our main historical references, which we must always remember:
- The fight of the indigenous Cacique Guaicaipuro, our older brother.
- Then the fight for our emancipation from the Liberator Simón Bolívar, and
- More recently, the rescue of our freedom through our eternal Commander, Hugo Rafael Chávez Frías, who after that “For now” of February 4, 1992, and assuming our presidency in 1999, has rescued our freedom, our sovereignty, our independence for the present and for our national future.
The Bolivarian Revolution, what role has it given to the indigenous peoples?
Well, the Bolivarian Revolution gave us the main thing, which is the guarantee of the rights of indigenous peoples. The arrival of the Revolution fought and ensured that each of our indigenous peoples had a special chapter within the Constitution of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela of 1999. That is where the great appreciation of our revolutionary process towards the recognition and respect of rights begins. of indigenous peoples. In addition to that, the thousands of tools that it has given us as public policies: the Guaicaipuro Mission, the Ministry of Popular Power for Indigenous Peoples, which at an international level is a unique experience. Venezuela is a pioneer in having an institution especially for indigenous peoples, other countries now have ministries, like Brazil, for example, but we paved the way.
In addition to that, we have legislators, in the municipal councils, councilors, we have national deputies, who are indigenous. We have our voice represented before the national, regional and municipal Legislative Power.
The presence of the United States in Latin America
The presence of agencies of imperialism such as the CIA, DEA, or NATO, among other interventionist institutions in Latin America, must be considered according to the excess of their functions. The United States acts not as a country but as an interfering organization in the internal policies of each of the nations.
The United States intervenes in the policies of each of the nations, that is, violating the sovereignty of the people. And the most important thing is that they do not respect the culture and idiosyncrasies of each of the peoples.
Precisely, when we refer to colonialism, unlike imperialism, it is about dominating and controlling and imposing their culture, belittling the cultures of the native peoples. Now, when we talk about imperialism, this is total control, from every point of view: political, social, cultural, military of each of the peoples and nations.
From there the United States and Europe then fall into fascism, neo-fascism and similar expressions. From Venezuela, the indigenous peoples: Say no to the imperial presence in our lands and nations!
Imperialism in neo-fascist governments in Latin America attacks indigenous peoples
The indigenous peoples are brave peoples, in those countries with extreme right-wing, neo-fascist governments, the indigenous peoples have been totally criminalized or have been totally forgotten, denied to exercise their own culture in their own territories. Today we can tell you, from Venezuela, that the indigenous peoples are not alone, and we also encourage them to continue the fight for their rights. The right-wing and neo-fascist governments will never, ever love indigenous peoples, because they want to erase our history.
Those governments will never protect any rights of indigenous peoples. The Venezuelan left, Bolivarian socialism, has been a fundamental part of the demands of all these sectors, mainly indigenous peoples and communities, as well as Afro-descendants, because we are the same people, the oppressed peoples. So to the indigenous peoples of Abya Yala we say that the fight must continue until we get the victory. Venezuela is proof that it is possible to recover our identity, our rights and our indigenous culture.
Imperialism and genocidal colonialism in the world: Genocide in Gaza
We call on the world, the international community, and national and international public opinion to reflect on what is happening in Gaza. Just as today there is genocide in Gaza, against the people of Palestine, we also remember what we experienced more than 500 years ago. Just as it happens today with the Palestinian people, so it happened with our ancestors, just as yesterday our ancestors had victory, because we are alive today. Today we declare our solidarity and tell the people of Palestine that they will also win, because in the face of hatred, in the face of imperialism, in the face of colonialism, love and justice will always win. So today’s reflections are that we continue fighting, because victory belongs to the people who fight for their emancipation.
We are going to remember this date as the beginning of the greatest genocide in the history of humanity so that there can never again be any empire that can raise its arm and its hatred against the people, to impose the slavery of man by man, but rather there is peace, hope as we are proposing from the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela with our constitutional president, Nicolás Maduro.
What is the message that Venezuela gives to other indigenous peoples?
To the brother peoples of the South, Bolivia, Peru, Ecuador, Chile, Argentina, Uruguay, and also of great Brazil, because in Brazil there are also indigenous peoples, indigenous brothers and sister who were also invaded by Portugal like us; Today we tell all of you that this is the time of the people, we are going to unite, we are going to create a network of networks. The historical block necessary so that this decadent empire, or any other that may emerge, can never again defeat us.
They have tried today with the Internet, with artificial intelligence, to oppress us, but here we say that with the ancestral human intelligence of indigenous peoples they will not be able to win. Here we are fighting. Let no one make a mistake, because there is a homeland here, as Commander Chávez said. So all our ancestors today are together, united to say enough of imperialism and colonialism. Victory will be of the people! Long live the people! Long live the indigenous peoples! Long live peace and long live freedom!
Finally, what is the importance of the union of indigenous peoples and Afro-descendant peoples in Venezuela
On this important day, Venezuela shows the rest of the indigenous peoples of Latin America its struggle and its resistance. Today, 532 years after the great genocide in Abya Yala, here we are, the indigenous peoples present alongside the Afro-descendant people, the indigenous people in general, the Venezuelan people of men and women who continue to resist. Today we can say with a firm voice, with a voice of love and with a voice of joy, that we continue in resistance.
We continue in a tireless fight for the vindication of our indigenous peoples. And that today in Venezuela we have more than 54 indigenous peoples, that means that we have resisted and that we will continue to resist and win.
Afro-descendant peoples have also fought a battle to survive and assert their rights. And here we are claiming the day of indigenous resistance, but we are also fighting for that ancestral history of the Afro-descendant peoples who were the object of imperial ambition, and which forcibly brought them here, but which today has precisely led us to walk the hand making revolution.
We are now writing a new history, because we were here before the Spanish empire arrived, because the indigenous peoples were on this land, because the men and women who arrived enslaved now have a new horizon, precisely, which is not to forget history, our origins, but that we also know that our destiny is to definitively free ourselves from the yoke of imperialism, to emancipate ourselves from our minds and move forward towards the new generations with the vision of knowing that we are a people that resisted and that continues to resist because Nobody discovered us. We already existed.
INTERVIEW
‘The majority of the European politicians are pro-war’
Published
3 weeks agoon
03/12/2024Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó told Harici: ‘In the European Union, the majority of European politicians are in favour of war. Since we are not a pro-war but a pro-peace government, it is clear that we do not fit into the current mainstream of European foreign policy.’
Responding to Dr. Esra Karahindiba’s questions, the Hungarian minister harshly criticised the majority of EU member states for their ‘non-peaceful’ policies, and also commented on President Biden’s decision to allow Ukraine to use US-made ballistic missiles against Russia and the US sanctions on Gazprombank.
Excellency Minister, thank you very much for taking the time to talk to us. Let’s start with the criticism against Hungary by the EU. You are accused of not adhering to the European Union’s common foreign policy. What is your response to this, and how was your experience during your presidency of the Council of the European Union?
Unfortunately, those European politicians are in a majority in the European Union who are in favor of the war. Since we are not a pro-war but a pro-peace government, it is obvious that we are not falling in line with the current European foreign policy mainstream. We have been standing up for a ceasefire and peace negotiations to be started. The majority of the European politicians are pro-war. They make measures which are putting the risk of escalation higher and higher. So definitely, we will not align with that. We will continue our peace efforts, and we hope that, as President Trump enters into the White House in January next year, internationally speaking, pro-peace politicians will gain more strength.
When I interviewed you at the Antalya Diplomacy Forum, you told me about that, and you told me that you believe if Trump is elected, peace is possible between Ukraine and Russia. Now Trump is the president-elect, and as you said, he’s going to take his post in January. Are you in contact with the Trump Administration, and are you taking any initiatives for making peace between the two countries? What are the items on your agenda, and what are you negotiating about?
Look, after President Trump has been elected, he has called our Prime Minister, congratulated him, and they agreed that the upcoming four years will be a golden age from the perspective of US-Hungary relations. You know, there are very strict regulations in the United States when it comes to a transition period, so the serious negotiations, the substantial negotiations between us and the Trump Administration will get started, obviously, right after President Trump enters the White House. There are some issues on the agenda already which we discussed way before, but for example, the Democrat Administration has terminated the bilateral tax treaty with Hungary. We hope that this will come into force again. The US Democrat Administration has restricted the access of Hungarian citizens to the ESTA visa system or a kind of visa system. We hope that with the Trump Administration entering into power, we will get back the status where we used to be. Of course, we hope that President Trump generally will carry out a policy which will help peace return to the Central European region and will allow a much better atmosphere in Europe to be created.
Frankly speaking, what is your position about Ukraine’s territorial integrity regarding Crimea and the Donbas region? Because those regions could be the number one condition for Russia to make peace.
Well, territorial integrity and sovereignty are principles that must be respected. On the other hand, I think sequence is important. First, a ceasefire has to take place, then peace negotiations have to be started, and then a peace deal must be made.
Talking about energy issues, today you joined the Istanbul Energy Forum here and had bilateral talks with several counterparts. Hungary announced that it signed an additional contract with Gazprom to use the Turkish Stream pipeline at full capacity. What do you expect from this development?
Look, Russia is a reliable partner when it comes to energy supplies. Turkey is a very reliable partner when it comes to transit. So, it is our honor that we can work together with Turkey and Russia in order to guarantee the security of energy supplies for Hungary. What we expect is that with the increased volumes, the price gets more competitive. Obviously, we have a very important program in Hungary through which we ensure that Hungarian families and households pay the lowest price when it comes to utilities. These additional contracts signed between Gazprom and our gas trading company are essential from the perspective of keeping the utility costs low in Hungary.
Let’s keep on the energy issue. I know that, as an observing member of the Organization of Turkic States, your term in the EU Council presidency is very important to be a bridge between these two regions. Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan are very eager, and actually, the EU is very eager to buy energy from these two countries. There are dozens of billions of dollars of infrastructure expected by the EU to be invested in this OTS region. What are the latest numbers? What is the latest development on that?
When it comes to the Turkic region or the Caucasian or Central Asian region, we do consider those regions as possible sources of future energy deliveries. We definitely count on the so-called Middle Green Corridor project to be successful, through which electricity from renewable sources from Azerbaijan and Georgia will be delivered to Central Europe through Romania to Hungary. We also count on gas from Azerbaijan to play a bigger role in our national energy mix. For that, the bottleneck is the capacity of the Southeast European pipeline network. But we do hope that we can increase the capacity in a way that allows us to increase the role of gas from Azerbaijan and the gas from Turkey in our national energy mix.
The Middle Corridor is gaining so much importance as the northern route is not being able to be used now, as you said. Meanwhile the Biden Administration, just before leaving office, has made its last steps and gave Ukraine permission to use US missiles against Russia. Russian leader Putin says “nothing will remain unanswered”. How do you see the upcoming future?
This is really dangerous. This definitely goes against the interests of the people in Central Europe. This definitely goes against the will of the American people since the American people have elected a different administration. They have elected a pro-peace president. So, I think it’s really dangerous what the current American Administration is doing. These measures can lead to an escalation, and we do hope that by January 20, we can somehow avoid escalation. Then, when President Trump takes office, hopefully, he will still have the chance to make peace. I do hope that the current Democrat Administration will not make it totally impossible to make peace in January.
My last question: what is your take on the Istanbul Energy Forum? What was your agenda here, and what are the expected outcomes for Hungary, Turkey, and other counterparts with whom you have had bilateral talks?
The most short-term duty of ours is now to overcome the challenges put forward by the US Administration’s decision to put Gazprombank on a sanctions list, since we are paying for the gas to the accounts of Gazprombank, as many other countries here in the region are. So, here we came together to find out how to overcome this challenge. I’m pretty sure that since we are united, we will find a way to overcome that and ensure the security of supplies in the future as well.
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