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Trump panic in Germany sparks calls for EU independence

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As Donald Trump prepares to begin his second term as US President, panic signals are emerging from the heart of Europe.

Former German Foreign Minister Sigmar Gabriel, for instance, is urging the next German government to shift its foreign policy direction and transform the EU into an independent power.

To achieve this, Gabriel told the Springer Group newspaper Bild on Sunday that the ‘power triangle between France, Germany, and Poland’ (the ‘Weimar Triangle’) should be reinforced.

Economists like Marcel Fratzscher, President of the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW) in Berlin, share similar views. Fratzscher stated that ‘Europe must be strengthened’ and criticized the German government and the European Commission for being ‘as poorly prepared as possible’ for Trump’s inauguration.

According to Gabriel Felbermayr, Director of the Austrian Institute for Economic Research (WIFO), the EU is already in a precarious position: Brussels is economically weakened and reliant on US liquefied natural gas (LNG), which gives Trump ‘a few bad trump cards.’

Secret memorandum from the German Ambassador: Warning of ‘maximum destruction’ that could redefine the constitutional order

Meanwhile, a secret memorandum written by German Ambassador to the United States Andreas Michaelis warns of a ‘maximum degradation’ agenda that could redefine the American constitutional order.

The document, obtained by Reuters and addressed to German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, expresses concern about the ‘erosion of democratic norms’ in Trump’s second administration.

Michaelis describes Trump’s vision as centered on ‘the maximum concentration of power in the president at the expense of Congress and the [US] states.’

According to the document, key democratic institutions, including the legislature, law enforcement, and the media, risk losing their independence and becoming ‘abused as a political arm.’

The memo also highlights the involvement of Big Tech companies, which Michaelis argues could be given ‘the power to govern together.’

Michaelis notes that recent US Supreme Court decisions expanding presidential powers could enable Trump to bypass traditional checks and balances.

The document also raises concerns about Trump’s ability to exploit legal loopholes for political purposes. These include the possibility of using the military domestically in the event of an ‘uprising’ or ‘invasion,’ which would push the limits of the Posse Comitatus Act of 1878.

Tariff threat gives Europe a headache

The EU could already be seriously damaged by the bitter dispute over Greenland and the threat of US tariffs, which may force German companies to relocate their investments to the US.

From Washington’s perspective under the new Trump administration, the case of Greenland is not just about weakening Denmark but also the EU as a whole.

In particular, Trump’s foreign policy is further obstructing Berlin and Paris’s plans to become a world power on par with the US with the help of the EU.

Trump is also seeking to shift the balance within the transatlantic alliance. The plan to impose tariffs on all US imports, including those from the EU, is an extension of this strategy.

German business leaders think Trump is being ‘criticized too much’

The Cologne-based German Institute for Economics (IW), closely aligned with the German business community, estimates that this could reduce Germany’s economic output by up to 1.5 percent in both 2027 and 2028.

According to a recent survey of 500 German executives, 80 percent of respondents said the German economy would suffer from Trump’s actions. Of these, 68 percent expect ‘some’ damage, while 12 percent anticipate ‘great damage.’

However, 75 percent of the business leaders surveyed believe that there is ‘too much criticism’ of Trump in Germany.

Forty-four percent of respondents expect tech giant Elon Musk’s new Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) in the US to not only reduce government staff but also cut regulations that are burdensome for companies.

Moritz Schularick, President of the Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), recently stated that individual companies would have the opportunity to make profitable investments ‘no longer in Germany but in the USA’ and warned that this would be an ‘additional burden’ for the Federal Republic of Germany.

Europe criticized for ‘not being ready for Trump’

Gabriel Felbermayr, former IfW President and current Director of the Austrian Institute for Economic Research (WIFO), argued that the EU is currently suffering from a ‘marked weakness in growth,’ making it fragile.

Additionally, the war in Ukraine is increasing the ‘bargaining power of the Americans,’ and the cutoff of Russian gas is reinforcing Europe’s dependence on American LNG.

With a share of around 20 percent, the U has become the EU’s second-largest natural gas supplier after Norway. In 2024, Germany imported around 13.5 percent of its natural gas from the US; 86 percent of German terminals, which supply 8 percent of total German demand, were filled with US LNG.

Felbermayr noted that if Trump threatens to restrict LNG export licenses, liquefied natural gas prices in Europe will rise, while those in the US will fall.

According to Felbermayr, Trump has ‘a few more bad trump cards’ today than he did eight years ago.

Europe calls for ‘one voice’ against the US

Marcel Fratzscher, President of the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW) in Berlin, also accused Germany of being ‘miserably prepared’ for the Trump era.

According to Fratzscher, Germany is ‘a small country compared to the US’, and will lose in this conflict if Europe ‘fails to speak with one voice.’

He argued that Berlin had been ‘staring blankly’ for at least six months and that Germany was only thinking about domestic politics, not ‘how it wants to position itself globally or how it can strengthen Europe.’

Fratzscher stated that this positioning is ‘urgently needed’ to have a minimum level of protection against Donald Trump. He criticized the lack of a ‘strategy’ for the German government or the European Commission to stand shoulder to shoulder in disagreements with the Trump administration, pointing to a ‘great division in Europe.’

The DIW President criticized Brussels for being ‘as unprepared as possible’ for Trump’s second term, despite having ‘really had enough time’ to ‘prepare in detail’ for an ‘intelligent counter-offensive’ at the EU level against Trump’s attacks, which had long been clearly foreseeable.

Sigmar Gabriel calls for a ‘quick change of course’

On the occasion of Trump’s inauguration, former Foreign Minister Sigmar Gabriel is calling for a rapid change of course.

In an article for Bild, published on January 19, Gabriel called for ‘preparing for a completely different US president’ than at the beginning of 2017.

At that time, Trump was ill-prepared, and the professionals in Washington ‘quickly got him under control,’ Gabriel said, emphasizing that the new president is following a clear plan this time.

‘It is clear that we Europeans … need the United States as a partner: economically, politically, and militarily,’ the German politician wrote, describing the move against Greenland, for example, as ‘a precursor to his well-known strategy of resorting to political provocations to better enforce serious demands.’

Gabriel argued that it is necessary to cooperate with Trump but, at the same time, ‘above all, to work on Europe’s economic, political, and military strength.’ He called it ‘unfortunate’ that the EU lacks a political center.

The French-German-Polish power triaangle, which could act as the center of Europe, has been ‘criminally neglected for years’ by the German government, Gabriel argued. He concluded that the next chancellor must, therefore, ‘first and foremost, change the course of foreign policy.’

Gabriel emphasized that this is about ‘finally transforming the EU into a power that is also taken seriously or simply recognized by Donald Trump.’

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Germany expands North Sea military ports and plans new naval base

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With the transformation of the port of Bremerhaven into a high-capacity military hub and the prospective establishment of a fifth German naval base in Emden, the federal government is accelerating the militarisation of the German coastline.

According to German Foreign Policy, the logistics infrastructure in Bremerhaven will be modernised and expanded to unload massive volumes of weapons and ammunition as quickly as possible and transport them onward to potential battlefields in Eastern Europe.

This is set out in a memorandum of understanding signed this week between the Ministry of Defence and municipal authorities in Bremen.

The federal government is providing up to 1.35 billion euros for this purpose, while the federal state of Bremen is contributing more than 212 million euros.

Bremen has the highest poverty risk and the highest child poverty rate of any federal state in the country.

The allocation of hundreds of millions of euros to expand military logistics rather than tackle poverty is also supported by senators from the Left Party (Die Linke) who sit in the state government.

Modernisation intensifies in Bremerhaven

Bremerhaven, Germany’s second-largest port in maritime freight handling behind Hamburg and ahead of Wilhelmshaven, is regarded as ideal for handling military cargo.

The port possesses significant capacity for offloading not only containers but also vehicles, alongside heavy-lift areas capable of handling even heavy military hardware such as main battle tanks. Moreover, because it can be accessed without passing through locks, access is substantially easier and faster.

Finally, it has good links to roads and particularly to railways, which is vital for the rapid transport of weapons and ammunition in the event of a crisis or war.

The port’s particular suitability as a military transshipment hub also stems from its history: it has been used by US forces since the end of the Second World War.

During the Cold War, it served as the central transshipment port in the Federal Republic of Germany and was expanded accordingly.

After 1990, it lost its significance for the US; however, with the escalation of the conflict in Ukraine, the US presence increased once more.

US activity escalated initially under exercises such as Defender Europe 2020 and subsequently from 2022 onwards in the context of the war in Ukraine.

As early as 2023, experts noted that Bremerhaven was operating as “an arms hub just like in the old days”.

Ports optimised for military logistics

The federal government is currently working to further increase the port’s military logistics capacity.

For instance, harbor basins will reportedly be dredged, and road and rail connections will be expanded.

Container facilities will be modernised and adapted to carry heavier loads.

This applies to both cranes and storage areas, with plans also in place to expand these storage areas into new zones.

A spokesperson for the port operating company Bremenports was quoted as saying: “The efficient transport of military hardware is no longer limited to tanks alone.”

Today, weapons and ammunition are also delivered in containers, which would need to be rapidly unloaded and forwarded in the event of war.

To ensure this, plans are also being made to build a new railway swing bridge at the Kaiserhafen. According to reports, the existing bridge is described as a “bottleneck” that slows down the movement of military equipment unnecessarily.

In addition, the heavy focus on military logistics demands costly security measures.

For example, not only will new fencing and privacy screens be erected, but drone defence systems will also be installed and cybersecurity measures implemented.

Left Party senators back armaments

The federal government is allocating approximately 1.35 billion euros through 2031 to optimise military logistics in Bremerhaven and, in conjunction with this, adapt Bremen Airport more effectively to the needs of the Bundeswehr.

According to the Mayor of Bremen, Andreas Bovenschulte, this represents the largest grant the German government has ever provided for a project in the federal state of Bremen.

The state of Bremen is contributing an additional 212 million euros to the “Bremerhaven 2031 Deployment Hub” project.

While large sums are being funnelled from Bremen’s state budget into war preparations in this manner, approximately 25.9% of the state’s population was classified as at risk of poverty in 2024, with 28.6% of all children living in poverty.

This makes Bremen the federal state with the highest poverty risk and the highest rate of child poverty.

Approval for funding military logistics in Bremerhaven with hundreds of millions of euros from the state budget also came from two Bremen senators belonging to the Left Party.

The Left Party’s Senator for Economic Affairs and Ports, Kristina Vogt, praised the “pragmatism” of “improving our infrastructure, which is already used for civilian purposes, for military ends” rather than constructing new facilities.

North Sea joins Baltic Sea militarisation

With the expansion of the Bremerhaven military hub, the militarisation of Germany’s coasts is progressing.

Until now, the focal point of Germany’s naval infrastructure has been the Baltic Sea coast. This was partly because during the Cold War, the naval activities of the Federal Republic of Germany were directed against the Soviet Union and Warsaw Pact states.

Alongside several training facilities, the German Navy primarily operates three major naval bases here, situated in Eckernfoerde, Kiel, and Rostock-Warnemuende, as well as the Naval Command based in Rostock.

In the North Sea, these are complemented by the naval base in Wilhelmshaven and the Naval Air Command at Nordholz near Cuxhaven.

The Naval Air Command is the third major unit of the German Navy, alongside Flotilla 1 based in Kiel and Flotilla 2 based in Wilhelmshaven.

At present, approximately 16,000 soldiers and 1,800 civilian staff from the Bundeswehr are stationed at the Navy’s main bases and various smaller installations.

As in other branches of the armed forces, the German Navy aims to expand its personnel numbers.

Germany’s fifth naval base to be built

In addition to the four existing naval bases and the Bremerhaven military hub, the federal government plans shortly to announce the construction of a fifth naval base, also located on the North Sea.

According to reports, Emden has been selected as the site for the base. Defence Minister Boris Pistorius and Lower Saxony’s State Minister Olaf Lies are scheduled to outline the next steps regarding a potential new naval base there on Monday.

Emden previously hosted a naval base during the Cold War, but the facility was closed in 1997.

According to reports, one argument in Emden’s favour is that it holds the largest unused area among Lower Saxony’s North Sea ports.

Discussions have been ongoing for some time over how to utilise this disused land reasonably, although these debates previously centred on civilian use.

According to the German Navy’s plans, the new naval base will accommodate seven frigates, ten minesweepers, and ten tugs, alongside a four-digit number of Bundeswehr soldiers and civilian personnel.

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European nations unite against US pressure over strategic oil stocks

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Five European countries have agreed to respond with “one voice” to mounting pressure from the US government to release their oil reserves.

Three European officials told Politico that France, Germany, Britain, Italy, Ireland, and the European Commission participated in talks to determine how to respond to pressure from Washington to draw down their oil reserves or face a ban on US diesel exports.

Two of these sources stated that all of these countries were placed under covert pressure by the US to run down their oil reserves or face a ban on diesel exports from the US.

According to the sources, these countries, together with the EU executive, agreed on three points: responding to the pressure with a “coordinated voice”, ensuring that “any decision on releasing stocks is brought to the IEA [International Energy Agency] level”, and seeking to “de-escalate tension in talks with the US”.

The Paris-based IEA coordinates energy policy among wealthy countries and oversaw the release of oil reserves earlier this year following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

One of the sources said the objective was to “de-escalate”:

“Being somewhat firm yet positive in communication… When you are facing a hungry lion, you do not necessarily have to play dirty with it.”

The source added that a wider group of countries, some of which have faced pressure from the Trump administration, would discuss how to react at a meeting scheduled for Friday.

Politico previously reported that US Energy Secretary Chris Wright had demanded the release of oil reserves into the market as an alternative to an export ban on which the EU heavily relies.

As a consequence of the wars in Ukraine and Iran, diesel prices in the US are soaring, placing significant pressure on US President Donald Trump to lower prices ahead of critical midterm elections.

The president is not ruling out an export ban, despite fierce opposition from the US oil industry.

Regarding the export ban, Trump said at an Oval Office event: “I am considering it. I speak to [Energy Secretary] Chris [Wright] and [Interior Secretary] Doug [Burgum] about this often. They think it would help diesel prices, but it could also raise the prices of other products.”

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EU wrestles with domestic content rules for ‘Made in Europe’ push

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The EU wants to leverage its immense public spending power to bolster European industry through a “Made in Europe” initiative.

Deep divisions remain, however, over what should genuinely count as European-made.

According to a report by Politico, the European Parliament and member state governments are trying to establish their positions on the Industrial Accelerator Act (IAA), which forms part of Brussels’ effort to turn the “Made in Europe” slogan into an industrial strategy.

The initiative aims to use tenders and subsidies to create a guaranteed market for products of European origin.

Yet doing so requires answering politically contentious questions, such as how “European” a product must be to qualify, and how much more governments and consumers should be prepared to pay to buy domestic goods.

Disagreements are playing out not only between Parliament and the Council, but also among national governments and even between political allies from different countries.

Unveiled by the European Commission in March, the IAA seeks to channel public expenditure on green technology, energy-intensive industries, and motor vehicles towards European firms, helping them compete with dominant Chinese exporters.

Six months on, it is becoming increasingly clear how difficult it is to turn that objective into workable legislation.

Opposing sides broadly agree on the need to strengthen Europe’s industrial base, accelerate permitting procedures, and reduce strategic dependencies.

However, sharp divisions persist over how extensively the EU should support European manufacturing and how much flexibility national governments should retain.

Politico has identified five issues that will dominate negotiations through 2027.

The first issue is the debate over what qualifies as “Made in Europe”.

Defining EU origin is the most politically sensitive topic in the talks. With public procurement accounting for 15% of the bloc’s GDP—equivalent to roughly 3 trillion euros a year—the sums at stake are enormous.

If the threshold defining how European a product must be is drawn too narrowly, Brussels risks alienating close trading partners and disrupting supply chains.

Conversely, if drawn too broadly, the “Made in Europe” preference risks becoming meaningless.

Parliament is pressing for stricter anti-circumvention rules and demanding that at least 50% of a product’s value be created within the EU.

This condition would also make it harder for goods or components from third countries to be treated as equivalent to EU-origin items.

Lawmakers also aim to impose tighter conditions, including reciprocity, economic security measures, climate commitments, labour standards, and human rights safeguards.

The Council is more open to treating content from countries covered by the WTO Agreement on Government Procurement or relevant free trade agreements as equivalent to EU-origin content under specified conditions, including certain reciprocity principles.

Yet EU member states are still debating their positions and putting forward various conflicting proposals.

Ireland, which holds the Council presidency, plans to submit a fresh compromise proposal featuring the “Made in Europe” designation by mid-October.

Another issue is Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) screening.

Parliament wants a more comprehensive and stringent system to screen foreign investment in strategic sectors.

Underpinning this demand is the concern that, despite the EU spending billions to develop strategic industries, subsidized or otherwise state-backed foreign investors could acquire the very companies and assets the EU helped build.

Lawmakers want to lower the review threshold from the proposed 100 million euro investment figure to 50 million euros, bring affiliates of foreign investors under the rules, and lower the control threshold that triggers mandatory notification.

They also want to give the Commission a stronger role, granting it the power to block investments in critical raw materials when EU funds are involved.

The Council’s position is narrower: it broadly retains the 100 million euro FDI threshold and the 30% control threshold set out in the Commission’s original proposal, while granting national authorities greater flexibility in managing the approval process.

The two institutions are at odds not only over the scope of screening, but also over the institutional balance of power between Brussels and national capitals.

The third issue centres on the scope of tenders and subsidies.

Both sides want public tenders and state support to drive demand for European-made, low-carbon goods.

However, opinions diverge on how broadly the rules should apply.

This is where political goals collide directly with public purse strings. Requiring governments to purchase European-made goods could spur demand for domestic manufacturers, but it could also force taxpayers to pay more when cheaper imported alternatives are available.

Parliament wants various requirements—such as green, social, or “Made in EU” criteria—to cover up to 90% of state aid or subsidy programmes, compared with 45% in the Council text.

It also proposes tighter social and labour conditions, relocation curbs, and stricter verification and enforcement mechanisms.

The Council favours broader exemptions where suitable products are unavailable, excessively costly, or technically unviable.

This posture reflects governmental concerns over higher public spending or project delays linked to reliance on imported components.

The fourth issue is the divergence over sectoral targets.

Parliament generally seeks higher and more granular European-origin content requirements for batteries, solar panels, wind turbines, electrolysers, nuclear technologies, and electric vehicles.

Electric cars illustrate how complex the “Made in Europe” concept can become in practice.

A vehicle assembled within the EU may contain a battery and raw materials sourced through supply chains spanning the globe.

Parliament plans to raise the required EU-origin share for non-battery vehicle components from the 70% proposed by the Commission to 75%.

Requirements governing battery materials, binders, and strategic raw materials would also be introduced.

The Council’s stance, by contrast, is less prescriptive and allows for a more phased implementation.

The dispute is not over whether strategic sectors should receive support, but whether the IAA should impose binding content targets that could push up costs for manufacturers and consumers.

The fifth and final debate concerns the sectors covered by the Industrial Accelerator Act.

The argument centres on whether the IAA should remain a targeted response to strategic dependencies or become a broader vehicle for EU industrial policy.

Parliament wants to expand the legislation to cover areas such as maritime manufacturing, materials recovery, and certain plastic products used in construction.

It also wants sectors such as fertilizers, rolling stock, robotics, and aerospace considered in future reviews.

The Council text focuses more tightly on sectors already identified, including energy-intensive industries, automotive, net-zero technologies, and critical raw materials.

The debate reflects wider friction over how far the EU should extend “Made in Europe” preferences.

When public procurement and subsidies are deployed in certain strategic sectors to shield domestic manufacturing, other industries gain a strong incentive to argue that they too should benefit.

According to a separate report by Politico, Brussels is prepared to grant candidate countries access to its single market, provided they agree to align with the bloc against “hostile states” and industrial competitors.

Under the draft plan, candidate countries would receive unprecedented “gradual integration” into the single market while their accession bids are assessed, including frictionless trade and access to research programmes.

An assessment of “pre-enlargement” benefits to be offered to candidate nations states: “The single market is the primary driver of economic convergence.”

The draft states:

“Earlier integration will create opportunities for businesses across the Union, strengthen European value chains, and reduce strategic dependencies. The Commission will identify sectors where verified regulatory alignment and enforcement capacity allow for deeper participation in research, innovation, and industrial cooperation, as well as broader market access. Priority should be given to opportunities that advance accession preparations and address shared economic and strategic needs.”

Overseen by Alexandre Adam, top adviser to Ursula von der Leyen and former aide to French President Emmanuel Macron, the review would fundamentally transform the EU’s approach to neighbouring countries.

At present, almost all the economic advantages of closer cooperation remain reserved for member states.

No new country has joined the EU since Croatia’s accession in 2013.

As part of Adam’s package of measures, Ukraine, Moldova, Albania, and Montenegro are set to receive “roadmaps” designed to accelerate their accession process in the coming years.

For other nations, including North Macedonia, Kosovo, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia, and Türkiye, the process continues to drag on amid mounting fears that they could drift away from the EU or draw closer to Russia or China.

Under the Commission’s blueprint, economic benefits extended to candidate countries would depend on their backing of EU foreign policy goals.

Single market access would hinge on candidate states not sharing key technologies with hostile governments and commercial rivals.

The review document notes:

“As industrial and market integration deepens, participation in sensitive sectors must go hand in hand with cooperation on investment screening, export controls, sanctions enforcement, and the protection of sensitive technologies. Access assessments must consider strategic alignment, critical dependencies, and the capacity to manage risks to infrastructure and supply chains. Where these conditions are not met, the scope of participation should be recalibrated under the relevant regulatory framework.”

Areas being considered for closer cooperation include semiconductors, quantum technologies, biotechnology, artificial intelligence, and space.

According to the review, full EU membership must remain the ultimate goal for candidate countries.

“Yet accession takes time: candidate countries must complete a rigorous, merit-based process and deliver comprehensive, enduring reforms,” the report notes. “This period must be fully exploited strategically, both to prepare the Union for a wider membership and to deepen gradual integration in areas of mutual interest.”

The benefits gained, however, will be contingent on countries fulfilling their obligations:

“Where these commitments are not honoured, integration must be reversible. The accession process should be suspended or rolled back where deemed necessary.”

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