Europe
Trump panic in Germany sparks calls for EU independence
As Donald Trump prepares to begin his second term as US President, panic signals are emerging from the heart of Europe.
Former German Foreign Minister Sigmar Gabriel, for instance, is urging the next German government to shift its foreign policy direction and transform the EU into an independent power.
To achieve this, Gabriel told the Springer Group newspaper Bild on Sunday that the ‘power triangle between France, Germany, and Poland’ (the ‘Weimar Triangle’) should be reinforced.
Economists like Marcel Fratzscher, President of the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW) in Berlin, share similar views. Fratzscher stated that ‘Europe must be strengthened’ and criticized the German government and the European Commission for being ‘as poorly prepared as possible’ for Trump’s inauguration.
According to Gabriel Felbermayr, Director of the Austrian Institute for Economic Research (WIFO), the EU is already in a precarious position: Brussels is economically weakened and reliant on US liquefied natural gas (LNG), which gives Trump ‘a few bad trump cards.’
Secret memorandum from the German Ambassador: Warning of ‘maximum destruction’ that could redefine the constitutional order
Meanwhile, a secret memorandum written by German Ambassador to the United States Andreas Michaelis warns of a ‘maximum degradation’ agenda that could redefine the American constitutional order.
The document, obtained by Reuters and addressed to German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, expresses concern about the ‘erosion of democratic norms’ in Trump’s second administration.
Michaelis describes Trump’s vision as centered on ‘the maximum concentration of power in the president at the expense of Congress and the [US] states.’
According to the document, key democratic institutions, including the legislature, law enforcement, and the media, risk losing their independence and becoming ‘abused as a political arm.’
The memo also highlights the involvement of Big Tech companies, which Michaelis argues could be given ‘the power to govern together.’
Michaelis notes that recent US Supreme Court decisions expanding presidential powers could enable Trump to bypass traditional checks and balances.
The document also raises concerns about Trump’s ability to exploit legal loopholes for political purposes. These include the possibility of using the military domestically in the event of an ‘uprising’ or ‘invasion,’ which would push the limits of the Posse Comitatus Act of 1878.
Tariff threat gives Europe a headache
The EU could already be seriously damaged by the bitter dispute over Greenland and the threat of US tariffs, which may force German companies to relocate their investments to the US.
From Washington’s perspective under the new Trump administration, the case of Greenland is not just about weakening Denmark but also the EU as a whole.
In particular, Trump’s foreign policy is further obstructing Berlin and Paris’s plans to become a world power on par with the US with the help of the EU.
Trump is also seeking to shift the balance within the transatlantic alliance. The plan to impose tariffs on all US imports, including those from the EU, is an extension of this strategy.
German business leaders think Trump is being ‘criticized too much’
The Cologne-based German Institute for Economics (IW), closely aligned with the German business community, estimates that this could reduce Germany’s economic output by up to 1.5 percent in both 2027 and 2028.
According to a recent survey of 500 German executives, 80 percent of respondents said the German economy would suffer from Trump’s actions. Of these, 68 percent expect ‘some’ damage, while 12 percent anticipate ‘great damage.’
However, 75 percent of the business leaders surveyed believe that there is ‘too much criticism’ of Trump in Germany.
Forty-four percent of respondents expect tech giant Elon Musk’s new Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) in the US to not only reduce government staff but also cut regulations that are burdensome for companies.
Moritz Schularick, President of the Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), recently stated that individual companies would have the opportunity to make profitable investments ‘no longer in Germany but in the USA’ and warned that this would be an ‘additional burden’ for the Federal Republic of Germany.
Europe criticized for ‘not being ready for Trump’
Gabriel Felbermayr, former IfW President and current Director of the Austrian Institute for Economic Research (WIFO), argued that the EU is currently suffering from a ‘marked weakness in growth,’ making it fragile.
Additionally, the war in Ukraine is increasing the ‘bargaining power of the Americans,’ and the cutoff of Russian gas is reinforcing Europe’s dependence on American LNG.
With a share of around 20 percent, the U has become the EU’s second-largest natural gas supplier after Norway. In 2024, Germany imported around 13.5 percent of its natural gas from the US; 86 percent of German terminals, which supply 8 percent of total German demand, were filled with US LNG.
Felbermayr noted that if Trump threatens to restrict LNG export licenses, liquefied natural gas prices in Europe will rise, while those in the US will fall.
According to Felbermayr, Trump has ‘a few more bad trump cards’ today than he did eight years ago.
Europe calls for ‘one voice’ against the US
Marcel Fratzscher, President of the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW) in Berlin, also accused Germany of being ‘miserably prepared’ for the Trump era.
According to Fratzscher, Germany is ‘a small country compared to the US’, and will lose in this conflict if Europe ‘fails to speak with one voice.’
He argued that Berlin had been ‘staring blankly’ for at least six months and that Germany was only thinking about domestic politics, not ‘how it wants to position itself globally or how it can strengthen Europe.’
Fratzscher stated that this positioning is ‘urgently needed’ to have a minimum level of protection against Donald Trump. He criticized the lack of a ‘strategy’ for the German government or the European Commission to stand shoulder to shoulder in disagreements with the Trump administration, pointing to a ‘great division in Europe.’
The DIW President criticized Brussels for being ‘as unprepared as possible’ for Trump’s second term, despite having ‘really had enough time’ to ‘prepare in detail’ for an ‘intelligent counter-offensive’ at the EU level against Trump’s attacks, which had long been clearly foreseeable.
Sigmar Gabriel calls for a ‘quick change of course’
On the occasion of Trump’s inauguration, former Foreign Minister Sigmar Gabriel is calling for a rapid change of course.
In an article for Bild, published on January 19, Gabriel called for ‘preparing for a completely different US president’ than at the beginning of 2017.
At that time, Trump was ill-prepared, and the professionals in Washington ‘quickly got him under control,’ Gabriel said, emphasizing that the new president is following a clear plan this time.
‘It is clear that we Europeans … need the United States as a partner: economically, politically, and militarily,’ the German politician wrote, describing the move against Greenland, for example, as ‘a precursor to his well-known strategy of resorting to political provocations to better enforce serious demands.’
Gabriel argued that it is necessary to cooperate with Trump but, at the same time, ‘above all, to work on Europe’s economic, political, and military strength.’ He called it ‘unfortunate’ that the EU lacks a political center.
The French-German-Polish power triaangle, which could act as the center of Europe, has been ‘criminally neglected for years’ by the German government, Gabriel argued. He concluded that the next chancellor must, therefore, ‘first and foremost, change the course of foreign policy.’
Gabriel emphasized that this is about ‘finally transforming the EU into a power that is also taken seriously or simply recognized by Donald Trump.’
Europe
Nokia and ICEYE sign deal to build sovereign Ukraine satellite network
Nokia and space technology company ICEYE have signed a memorandum of understanding with Ukraine’s Ministry of Defence to establish a satellite communications network controlled directly by the Kyiv government.
A press release issued by Nokia noted that the parties will jointly assess the feasibility of implementing a Ukrainian-controlled communications system.
The agreement was announced on 22 October during the Finnish Prime Minister’s visit to Ukraine. The primary goal of the cooperation was described as bolstering the country’s defence capabilities, first and foremost by strengthening its independent satellite communications capacity.
Earlier in October, ICEYE and Nokia announced that they would jointly develop secure broadband communication systems operating in low Earth orbit for public institutions.
Designed for defence, border security, emergency services, and disaster response teams, these European-origin technologies are stated to allow states to directly own and independently operate their own satellites, ground infrastructure, and terminals.
In remarks on the matter, ICEYE Chief Executive Officer and Co-Founder Rafal Modrzewski stated that Ukraine requires secure, sovereign, and high-capacity satellite communications systems under its complete control.
Mikko Hautala, Nokia’s Director of Geopolitical and Government Relations and Chairman of the Nokia Defence Board, pointed out that satellite networks ensure the continuity of communications even when terrestrial transmission infrastructure suffers damage.
Hautala said that together with ICEYE, they will explore how reliable and sovereign satellite communications can enhance Ukraine’s resilience and provide the Kyiv government with control over communications on which it depends.
Based in Finland, space company ICEYE develops and manufactures radar satellites and makes data obtained from these satellites available for use.
According to information shared by the company, its technologies are used in defence and intelligence, as well as in environmental monitoring, insurance, and emergency response operations.
Reports indicating that restrictions had been placed on the US satellite connection used by the Ukrainian military surfaced just before this agreement.
In a post on the night of 14 October, former Ukrainian Defence Ministry Adviser Serhiy Sternenko stated that terminals were losing connection when travelling at speeds of 160 kilometres per hour, and that these disruptions later began occurring at speeds of 60 to 70 kilometres per hour as well.
SpaceX head Elon Musk maintained that the US government owns and manages Starshield, the military version of Starlink, and that restriction decisions were therefore taken by US authorities.
The White House, meanwhile, stated that it had nothing to do with the restrictions.
According to a 22 October report in The Wall Street Journal citing US officials, US President Donald Trump personally asked Musk to lift the restrictions in question.
Following the discussion, US and Ukrainian officials stated that the system began operating more stably, while some Ukrainian representatives said functionality had not yet fully returned to its previous state. Trump confirmed that Ukraine’s Starshield access had been restored.
The restrictions met with backlash across Europe.
Accusing Musk of playing political games, Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski posted on the X platform: “We are your European customers, we are watching you.”
Poland has purchased approximately 25,000 Starlink terminals for Ukraine since 2022 and continues to cover the satellite connection costs of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Following these developments, the European Commission also announced that Ukraine’s inclusion in the Govsatcom programme is under consideration.
Bringing together the existing satellite capacity of EU member states, the secure communications programme is planned by Brussels to be expanded with commercial services at the start of 2027.
Europe
Mélenchon’s “new France” vision triggers fierce cross-party debate
Following the unrest in France this month, the country finds itself split between Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s project of a “new France” and Marine Le Pen’s call for “law and order”.
Triggered alongside the student revolt, the question of national identity has moved to the centre of the presidential race.
“This is Mélenchon’s ‘new France’,” said National Rally (RN) leader Jordan Bardella and Identity and Freedom (ID) party leader Marion Maréchal Le Pen, linking the scenes of violence directly to the phrase.
According to several recent speeches by the leader of France Unbowed (LFI), “new France” signifies a country transformed positively by immigration, women’s rights, shifting family structures, social mobility, and the political demands of younger generations.
Mélenchon contends that this optimistic vision can become a reality if voters elect him president next year.
Two Frances to clash this weekend
Yet as the April 2027 elections draw closer, Mélenchon’s vision of a “new France” has turned into a recurring target for Marine Le Pen’s party, the RN, because it encapsulates a fundamental rift over French identity.
While Le Pen’s party draws on nostalgia for a revived nationalist past, Mélenchon’s vision of a “new France” envisages a clean break with the old order.
These two visions appear set for a direct collision this weekend. Le Pen will stage a gathering in Orléans before 10,000 supporters, which RN officials say will focus on authority, French identity, and public order.
Mélenchon’s party, LFI, is expected to join demonstrations against the RN alongside other left-wing forces and trade unions in the historic French town associated with Joan of Arc, which Le Pen treats as a nationalist symbol.
Echoes of Sartre in “new France”: Change over essentialism
Defending the concept of “new France” against its critics, LFI argues that it cannot be understood without reading a little of the philosopher Jean-Paul Sartre and grasping the legacy accumulated from the left’s long ideological battles.
From a Sartrean perspective, “new France” is not a fixed, essentialist identity, but a fluid, changing reality.
Rather than declaring “this is who we are”, this outlook is grounded in “this is what we live through”, describing the varied realities confronted by precarious workers, women, people of non-French origin, and young voters.
According to this view, their lived experiences fit neither the right’s nor the left’s traditional national representations.
Mélenchon identifies women as the face of the “new France”. This category also encompasses blended families, young people, LGBT rights, long-distance commuters, and French citizens whose ancestors were born abroad.
Broadsides from the right, criticism from the left
Although he has used the phrase for years, pollsters note that it has become increasingly prominent as identity politics has come to occupy a larger share of his campaigning.
For critics across the political spectrum, “new France” implies casting “old France” aside.
Conservative Bruno Retailleau, for example, describes it as “the end of France”.
Former LFI ally François Ruffin criticises Mélenchon from the left. In Ruffin’s view, the LFI leader is trading class-based political appeal for an appeal directed at diverse urban electorates, sacrificing working-class towns and deindustrialised regions in the process.
Others dismiss the phrase as a slogan fabricated to drive polarisation across every cultural fault line.
Promoting the concept in May ahead of the French municipal elections, Mélenchon said: “The new France is not one part of France set against another; it is the whole of France.”
A month later, he noted that crowds at his rallies chanted “On est chez nous!” or “This is our home!”
Usually associated with far-right gatherings through the variant “France belongs to us”, the slogan, according to Rapporteur, offers a simpler expression of what the two camps are actually contesting: who gets to define French identity, and who feels at home in France.
Europe
EU unveils Arctic plan targeting military corridors and resources
The EU is developing plans to enhance its military mobility in the Arctic and aims to establish “multimodal military movement corridors” across the High North.
According to a report by German Foreign Policy, this initiative was outlined in the EU’s new Arctic strategy presented by the European Commission in Brussels on Tuesday.
Under the strategy, a complex logistics network consisting of “ports, airports, and their inland connections” will be created across the Arctic, designed to “remain operational even under adverse weather conditions.”
The strategy paper also announces that “exercises or stress tests” will be conducted to ensure the smooth deployment of military forces and capabilities to the Arctic.
Through this strategy, the EU is responding to the reality that climate change-driven Arctic ice melt is facilitating access to regional natural resources while opening new sea routes, such as the Northeast and Northwest Passages, which can now be used for both commercial and military operations.
The Arctic strategy aims for greater independence from the US and envisages laying a “pan-Arctic” submarine cable running from Europe through the polar region to East Asia.
Arctic natural resources
The EU’s new Arctic strategy addresses, among other topics, the natural resources located in the Arctic, both beneath the seabed and on land.
Due to thawing ice, these resources are already accessible or will soon become easier to reach, and Brussels supports their extraction.
Specific projects highlighted include a rare earth element extraction venture near Kiruna in northernmost Sweden and a plan to mine molybdenum in eastern Greenland.
Departing from its previous 2021 Arctic strategy, the Commission no longer advocates an outright ban on oil, gas, and coal extraction in the Arctic within a multilateral framework.
This policy shift comes as Norway has emerged as the bloc’s most vital natural gas supplier, providing approximately 30% of all its natural gas imports following the EU’s phased reduction of Russian energy imports.
However, production from Norway’s existing fields is expected to decline in the 2030s. Consequently, Norway plans to explore new deposits in the Barents Sea, where vast reserves are estimated to lie.
Dependent on raw material supplies from Norway as well as strategic cooperation with Oslo, the EU no longer opposes these exploration plans.
New sea routes opened by melting ice
The EU is also turning its attention to the gradual opening of new Arctic shipping routes.
For instance, the Northeast Passage, running along Russia’s northern coastline from East Asia to Europe, is now open to navigation between August and October.
This route is considerably shorter than the conventional transit via the Indian Ocean, significantly reducing shipping costs, especially in light of current oil prices.
A Chinese shipping firm launched regular services via the Northeast Passage this summer, while a South Korean vessel recently returned to the port of Busan after completing its maiden commercial voyage along the corridor.
Although used by few vessels to date, the Northwest Passage has also come into operation as a route extending from the North Atlantic through Canada’s northern archipelago and north of Alaska toward East Asia.
Experts believe that, during the summer months, this passage could offer advantages over the traditional route via the Panama Canal “for certain vessel types and transport routes.”
The emergence of new military capabilities was underscored in September when four Russian warships navigated the Shokalsky Strait between two Russian Arctic islands for the first time in history.
Military mobility in the High North
This development represents another driver behind the EU’s new Arctic Strategy placing particular emphasis on military aspects.
Russia has been strengthening its Arctic military positions for some time, partly because the headquarters of its Northern Fleet, which hosts part of its second-strike capability, is located on its north-western coast, and partly because its exceptionally long northern coastline remains strategically vulnerable.
NATO has likewise been expanding its activities in the Arctic considerably, holding numerous exercises across northern Finland, Sweden, and Norway, as well as in Iceland and Greenland, alongside its new “Operation Arctic Sentry.”
The strategy document states that the EU must now strengthen its own posture in the Arctic.
This objective is to be pursued both in cooperation with NATO and through independent EU measures.
For example, situational awareness must be enhanced, including by leveraging EU satellite systems, particularly Copernicus and Galileo.
Additionally, the planned IRIS2 satellite constellation, conceived as Europe’s counterpart to Starlink, should be expanded to cover the Arctic to improve communications.
To coordinate these initiatives, the EU plans to establish a Maritime Security Centre.
The EU places special emphasis on military mobility in the Arctic. According to the document, rapid and large-scale troop deployments must be feasible in the region at any time if required.
To this end, “multimodal military movement corridors” incorporating ports, airports, and their inland connections need to be established.
These facilities will be designed as a unified, complex logistics system “capable of remaining operational even under adverse weather conditions.”
Realising this plan will require preparation for “ice clearance,” “the handling of heavy and oversized military vehicles on frozen ground,” and “the rapid repair of damaged infrastructure.”
Looking ahead, the EU is urged to organize “exercises or stress tests focused on the smooth deployment of forces and military capabilities to and within the Arctic” in cooperation with NATO or like-minded partners.
Viewing these capabilities as vital for “credible deterrence,” the EU also underscores the need for its own icebreaker fleet to clear pathways through the ice for warships.
The Arctic’s role in “strategic autonomy” vis-a-vis the US
Throughout this process, the EU is not only adopting a clear stance toward Russia, but is also pursuing greater independence from the US.
On one hand, the strategy encourages deepening ties with Greenland, which is part of Denmark, does not belong to the EU, and has faced threats of US annexation. The document designates this relationship as a cornerstone of the new Arctic strategy.
On the other hand, the text calls for intensifying cooperation as part of a “Northern Neighbourhood” strategy with Norway, Iceland, and Canada, as well as with the UK, which occupies a strategically advantageous position despite not being an Arctic coastal state.
The EU maintains a security and defence dialogue with Norway, holding its fifth session this past April, alongside launching an “Arctic Dialogue” with Oslo this year.
Canada is classified by the European Commission as a “natural ally” in the Arctic. Observers note that while Canada is mentioned dozens of times throughout the strategy, the US is cited only a handful of times.
This contrast is seen as evidence that the EU is seeking independence from Washington in the High North.
Accordingly, the document explicitly references “European strategic autonomy” as an “integral component of the Arctic.”
Pan-Arctic cable plan extending to Japan
The EU Arctic Strategy also identifies Japan and South Korea as cooperation partners in the region.
This partnership is linked to plans to connect Greenland to the EU via a submarine cable, which would subsequently be extended across the Bering Strait to Japan and South Korea.
Berlin has advocated the construction of such a “pan-Arctic cable” for some time.
According to a statement issued in early July by the Berlin-based German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP), such an infrastructure project is highly desirable for multiple reasons.
First, data traffic between Europe and Asia, 90% of which currently passes through the Red Sea and the strait between Djibouti and Yemen (Bab el-Mandeb), “suffers from a high failure rate and a lack of redundancy.”
Furthermore, the Arctic route is “significantly shorter,” resulting in reduced latency and fewer transmission delays.
International equity trading in particular stands to benefit from “real-time data transmission” enabled by a new polar cable link.
SWP outlines two potential routes for the cable: one running west of Greenland and the other running east.
-
Europe2 weeks agoBerlin Left Party backs Israel’s right to exist for coalition pact
-
America2 weeks agoTrump weighs presidential memorandum to cut surging US diesel prices
-
Diplomacy1 week agoSWP urges backing for Gulf trade routes bypassing Strait of Hormuz
-
Diplomacy2 weeks agoEU and China reach preliminary deal to curb hybrid car imports
-
Europe1 week agoLSE study finds post-bailout Greece turned into a cafe economy
-
America2 weeks agoEnergy firms enlist ex-US officials to tap Venezuelan oil
-
America2 weeks agoThiel targets Pope and Obama over AI in new ‘Antichrist’ lectures
-
Europe2 weeks agoGerman exports pivot to Eastern Europe amid drops in US and China
