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Trump panic in Germany sparks calls for EU independence

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As Donald Trump prepares to begin his second term as US President, panic signals are emerging from the heart of Europe.

Former German Foreign Minister Sigmar Gabriel, for instance, is urging the next German government to shift its foreign policy direction and transform the EU into an independent power.

To achieve this, Gabriel told the Springer Group newspaper Bild on Sunday that the ‘power triangle between France, Germany, and Poland’ (the ‘Weimar Triangle’) should be reinforced.

Economists like Marcel Fratzscher, President of the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW) in Berlin, share similar views. Fratzscher stated that ‘Europe must be strengthened’ and criticized the German government and the European Commission for being ‘as poorly prepared as possible’ for Trump’s inauguration.

According to Gabriel Felbermayr, Director of the Austrian Institute for Economic Research (WIFO), the EU is already in a precarious position: Brussels is economically weakened and reliant on US liquefied natural gas (LNG), which gives Trump ‘a few bad trump cards.’

Secret memorandum from the German Ambassador: Warning of ‘maximum destruction’ that could redefine the constitutional order

Meanwhile, a secret memorandum written by German Ambassador to the United States Andreas Michaelis warns of a ‘maximum degradation’ agenda that could redefine the American constitutional order.

The document, obtained by Reuters and addressed to German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, expresses concern about the ‘erosion of democratic norms’ in Trump’s second administration.

Michaelis describes Trump’s vision as centered on ‘the maximum concentration of power in the president at the expense of Congress and the [US] states.’

According to the document, key democratic institutions, including the legislature, law enforcement, and the media, risk losing their independence and becoming ‘abused as a political arm.’

The memo also highlights the involvement of Big Tech companies, which Michaelis argues could be given ‘the power to govern together.’

Michaelis notes that recent US Supreme Court decisions expanding presidential powers could enable Trump to bypass traditional checks and balances.

The document also raises concerns about Trump’s ability to exploit legal loopholes for political purposes. These include the possibility of using the military domestically in the event of an ‘uprising’ or ‘invasion,’ which would push the limits of the Posse Comitatus Act of 1878.

Tariff threat gives Europe a headache

The EU could already be seriously damaged by the bitter dispute over Greenland and the threat of US tariffs, which may force German companies to relocate their investments to the US.

From Washington’s perspective under the new Trump administration, the case of Greenland is not just about weakening Denmark but also the EU as a whole.

In particular, Trump’s foreign policy is further obstructing Berlin and Paris’s plans to become a world power on par with the US with the help of the EU.

Trump is also seeking to shift the balance within the transatlantic alliance. The plan to impose tariffs on all US imports, including those from the EU, is an extension of this strategy.

German business leaders think Trump is being ‘criticized too much’

The Cologne-based German Institute for Economics (IW), closely aligned with the German business community, estimates that this could reduce Germany’s economic output by up to 1.5 percent in both 2027 and 2028.

According to a recent survey of 500 German executives, 80 percent of respondents said the German economy would suffer from Trump’s actions. Of these, 68 percent expect ‘some’ damage, while 12 percent anticipate ‘great damage.’

However, 75 percent of the business leaders surveyed believe that there is ‘too much criticism’ of Trump in Germany.

Forty-four percent of respondents expect tech giant Elon Musk’s new Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) in the US to not only reduce government staff but also cut regulations that are burdensome for companies.

Moritz Schularick, President of the Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), recently stated that individual companies would have the opportunity to make profitable investments ‘no longer in Germany but in the USA’ and warned that this would be an ‘additional burden’ for the Federal Republic of Germany.

Europe criticized for ‘not being ready for Trump’

Gabriel Felbermayr, former IfW President and current Director of the Austrian Institute for Economic Research (WIFO), argued that the EU is currently suffering from a ‘marked weakness in growth,’ making it fragile.

Additionally, the war in Ukraine is increasing the ‘bargaining power of the Americans,’ and the cutoff of Russian gas is reinforcing Europe’s dependence on American LNG.

With a share of around 20 percent, the U has become the EU’s second-largest natural gas supplier after Norway. In 2024, Germany imported around 13.5 percent of its natural gas from the US; 86 percent of German terminals, which supply 8 percent of total German demand, were filled with US LNG.

Felbermayr noted that if Trump threatens to restrict LNG export licenses, liquefied natural gas prices in Europe will rise, while those in the US will fall.

According to Felbermayr, Trump has ‘a few more bad trump cards’ today than he did eight years ago.

Europe calls for ‘one voice’ against the US

Marcel Fratzscher, President of the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW) in Berlin, also accused Germany of being ‘miserably prepared’ for the Trump era.

According to Fratzscher, Germany is ‘a small country compared to the US’, and will lose in this conflict if Europe ‘fails to speak with one voice.’

He argued that Berlin had been ‘staring blankly’ for at least six months and that Germany was only thinking about domestic politics, not ‘how it wants to position itself globally or how it can strengthen Europe.’

Fratzscher stated that this positioning is ‘urgently needed’ to have a minimum level of protection against Donald Trump. He criticized the lack of a ‘strategy’ for the German government or the European Commission to stand shoulder to shoulder in disagreements with the Trump administration, pointing to a ‘great division in Europe.’

The DIW President criticized Brussels for being ‘as unprepared as possible’ for Trump’s second term, despite having ‘really had enough time’ to ‘prepare in detail’ for an ‘intelligent counter-offensive’ at the EU level against Trump’s attacks, which had long been clearly foreseeable.

Sigmar Gabriel calls for a ‘quick change of course’

On the occasion of Trump’s inauguration, former Foreign Minister Sigmar Gabriel is calling for a rapid change of course.

In an article for Bild, published on January 19, Gabriel called for ‘preparing for a completely different US president’ than at the beginning of 2017.

At that time, Trump was ill-prepared, and the professionals in Washington ‘quickly got him under control,’ Gabriel said, emphasizing that the new president is following a clear plan this time.

‘It is clear that we Europeans … need the United States as a partner: economically, politically, and militarily,’ the German politician wrote, describing the move against Greenland, for example, as ‘a precursor to his well-known strategy of resorting to political provocations to better enforce serious demands.’

Gabriel argued that it is necessary to cooperate with Trump but, at the same time, ‘above all, to work on Europe’s economic, political, and military strength.’ He called it ‘unfortunate’ that the EU lacks a political center.

The French-German-Polish power triaangle, which could act as the center of Europe, has been ‘criminally neglected for years’ by the German government, Gabriel argued. He concluded that the next chancellor must, therefore, ‘first and foremost, change the course of foreign policy.’

Gabriel emphasized that this is about ‘finally transforming the EU into a power that is also taken seriously or simply recognized by Donald Trump.’

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China’s critical mineral restrictions challenge EU defence expansion plans

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The European Union’s plans to expand its defence capabilities are being hindered by China’s export controls and sales restrictions on critical raw materials.

In response, EU leaders are urging member states to accelerate efforts to diversify supply chains.

According to Nikkei Asia, the European Commission announced last week that it would propose new legislation requiring companies across the bloc to broaden their supplier base in an effort to address economic imbalances, although it did not explicitly name China.

The war in Ukraine and growing uncertainty over Washington’s security guarantees have pushed European governments to increase military spending and defence production.

At the same time, according to a report published in May by Joris Teer, a policy analyst at the European Union Institute for Security Studies (EUISS), China accounts for at least 70% of global mining or refining activity in 17 of the 34 materials classified as critical by the EU. Eight of those 34 materials are currently subject to Chinese export controls.

“China is undermining Europe’s rearmament efforts,” Teer wrote. “Simply by activating this tool, China has already increased its leverage and demonstrated both the capability and willingness to restrict supply whenever it chooses.”

The Aerospace, Security and Defence Industries Association of Europe also warned that geopolitical developments and intensifying global competition for critical raw materials are further underscoring the need to strengthen European supply chains.

The organisation represents more than 4,000 companies, including Britain’s BAE Systems, France’s Thales and Germany’s Rheinmetall.

European defence manufacturers are pursuing a range of strategies, including vertical integration, recycling, diversification and stockpiling.

Rheinmetall told Nikkei Asia that it has “no dependencies” and is “well prepared” regarding critical minerals.

A company spokesperson said: “Rheinmetall has stockpiled key raw materials sufficient for several years. We have also implemented IT systems that allow us to centrally monitor and precisely manage raw material consumption across the entire group.”

Analysts, however, caution that stockpiling alone will not be sufficient. Maria Shagina, a researcher at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, said: “Stockpiling serves as an important buffer against sudden disruptions, but on its own it is unlikely to mitigate structural damage over the long term.”

Shagina added that replacing the volume and diversity of critical minerals controlled by Beijing with alternative sources would take years.

In 2024, the EU enacted the European Critical Raw Materials Act, aimed at rebuilding domestic supply chains for such minerals.

The legislation sets 2030 targets for domestic extraction, processing and recycling while limiting dependence on any single third-country supplier to 65%.

A €3 billion ($3.5 billion) fund was established last year to accelerate strategic projects.

Nevertheless, the European Court of Auditors has noted that the 2030 targets are not legally binding and that the EU remains far from achieving them.

Industry groups argue that policy inconsistencies could further slow progress.

The Cobalt Institute, which represents a sector vital to jet engines, advanced batteries and defence alloys, warned that proposed EU chemicals regulations risk undermining the industry.

“Europe has one foot in and one foot out,” said Michael Blakeney, head of government and public affairs at the London-based institute. “It says the right things, but its actions are inconsistent.”

Europe’s efforts are unfolding alongside a more aggressive US strategy to secure critical mineral supply chains.

Shagina said:

“The US is investing more capital to secure and expand capacity, taking greater financial risks and, in some cases, acquiring equity stakes. Europe, by contrast, is generally more cautious, which places it at a relative disadvantage in the competition for critical minerals.”

In April, the EU signed an agreement with the United States to coordinate supplies of critical minerals. Although some member states initially resisted over concerns that the deal could weaken the bloc’s strategic autonomy, they authorised the Commission in early June to join the US-led “Pax Silica” initiative, which coordinates investment and export-control policies.

Teer urged Europe to use ongoing US-EU-Japan negotiations as the nucleus of a broader coalition aimed at making critical mineral production outside China financially viable through state support, minimum-price mechanisms and supply rules.

“Particularly important are countries that either produce raw materials or possess significant mineral deposits, such as Malaysia, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Brazil and Indonesia, as well as countries like India with large pools of skilled labour,” he said.

Teer also argued that the EU should activate its Anti-Coercion Instrument, which allows the bloc to impose tariffs and restrictions in response to economic pressure on countries outside the union, in order to deter China from introducing further restrictions.

A European Commission spokesperson said the bloc had “long been aware of the risks associated with the EU’s dependence on critical raw materials.”

“The objective is clear: to anticipate disruptions early and reduce the EU’s vulnerabilities while strengthening our industrial and defence capacities,” the spokesperson said.

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Four European countries move to make citizenship harder to obtain

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European countries are increasingly tightening their citizenship rules. Most recently, the Norwegian government has drafted legislation that would raise the minimum residency requirement for citizenship from three years to seven.

The proposed amendments to the citizenship law were presented by the Ministry of Labour and Social Inclusion.

Under the draft legislation, stateless individuals born in Norway, as well as those who arrived in the country as children, would be required to reside in Norway for at least five years before becoming eligible for citizenship.

The government also plans to increase residency requirements for foreign nationals who are married to or cohabiting with Norwegian citizens.

Language requirements are set to become more demanding as well. The proposal would raise the required level of spoken Norwegian proficiency from A2 to B1. The new rules would apply to applicants aged between 18 and 67.

Commenting on the changes, Minister of Labour and Social Inclusion Kjersti Stenseng said: “Obtaining and holding Norwegian citizenship should be a privilege.”

The government argues that simplifying administrative procedures while simultaneously tightening eligibility criteria will help reduce the country’s large backlog of pending applications and shorten processing times.

Norway is the latest European country to announce revisions to its citizenship rules.

In Finland, the minimum residency requirement for citizenship was increased from five years to eight years on October 1, 2024.

The country also plans to introduce a mandatory citizenship test for applicants aged between 18 and 64 from the beginning of 2027.

Finnish Interior Minister Mari Rantanen said: “The introduction of a citizenship test is the final component of a comprehensive reform aimed at making citizenship requirements more stringent.”

Sweden has also approved a similar reform. Beginning in June 2026, the standard residency requirement for citizenship will increase from five years to eight years. Authorities are also introducing a financial self-sufficiency requirement for applicants and expanding the scope of security screenings.

Explaining the rationale behind the changes, Migration Minister Johan Forssell said: “It was possible to become a citizen after living in the country for five years without knowing a single word of Swedish, learning anything about Swedish society, or even having one’s own source of income.”

The most far-reaching changes have been implemented in Portugal. Portuguese President Antonio Jose Seguro has signed legislation raising the minimum residency requirement for citizenship from five years to 10 years.

For citizens of the European Union and the Community of Portuguese Language Countries, the requirement has been set at seven years.

The residency period will now be calculated from the date a residence permit is granted rather than from the date a citizenship application is submitted. The new rules will also affect the children of immigrants.

Previously, children could obtain citizenship one year after birth if their parents held residence permits. Under the new rules, at least one parent must have legally resided in the country for a minimum of five years.

The law also introduces a mandatory examination covering Portuguese history, culture, values and social structures.

Migration policies are tightening across the European Union as well. On June 17, the European Parliament approved legislation allowing irregular migrants whose asylum applications have been rejected but who cannot be returned to their countries of origin to be deported to third countries.

The new EU rules permit the establishment of migrant detention centres outside the bloc’s borders. African countries are reportedly among the options being discussed for such facilities.

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SpaceX warns EU satellite spectrum plan could disrupt connectivity in Ukraine

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SpaceX has sharply criticised a European Union plan to restrict access to satellite spectrum, arguing that the proposal risks degrading connectivity in Ukraine and disrupting emergency communications services.

In a document shared with European officials and reviewed by the Financial Times, SpaceX warned:

“This proposal significantly increases the likelihood that Europeans will be deprived of direct-to-device satellite services, or that new European operations will create global interference issues, including for emergency services such as those operating in Ukraine.”

In a proposal unveiled in May, the EU recommended reserving part of the spectrum band used for direct satellite-to-smartphone connectivity for European operators, thereby limiting the frequencies available to US and Chinese providers.

The 2 GHz frequency band in question is currently used by two US companies, Viasat and EchoStar.

SpaceX argued that the EU plan prioritises “an operator’s country of establishment over economic, technical and regulatory realities.”

When the proposal was announced, EU technology chief Henna Virkkunen defended the move, saying the bloc wanted to “increase European capacity in this sector.” She added that other parts of the frequency band would remain open to international operators, arguing that prioritising European providers was justified.

Other participants involved in discussions over the proposal said some EU officials were specifically seeking to limit Elon Musk’s Starlink satellite network.

Europe’s initiative follows a warning from Washington. In March, the US Federal Communications Commission (FCC) cautioned that it could take retaliatory measures if the EU chose to favour European satellite operators over alternatives such as Starlink.

At the time, FCC Chairman Brendan Carr told the Financial Times: “Some of the discussions in Europe regarding satellite sovereignty concern us. If Europe decides to move down that path, then, as you know, we will have to consider reciprocal measures.”

The European Commission’s proposal has not yet entered formal negotiations with EU member states or the European Parliament.

A source close to SpaceX said the company remained hopeful of influencing the outcome of the process, given concerns raised by both businesses and several European governments.

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