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Trump’s pressure campaign pushes Western allies into China’s embrace

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Governments across the Western world are increasingly seeking political and economic alternatives to reduce their dependence on the Trump administration, initiating a strategic rapprochement with China. This shift serves as a direct response to Washington’s intensified efforts to bring its North American and European allies to heel.

According to an analysis by German Foreign Policy, Canada—currently facing threats of annexation from Washington—became the first to break ranks last week by signing a strategic partnership agreement with China.

During a high-profile address at the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos, Prime Minister Mark Carney justified the decision by pointing to a “breakdown in the world order,” noting that major powers are no longer “imposing constraints” upon themselves. Carney argued that the only way to avoid subjugation is through broad cooperation with other states.

The United Kingdom is similarly attempting to reconstruct its ties with the People’s Republic of China, while Berlin and Brussels continue to send conflicting signals. Assessing the consequences of US power politics, the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) recently posited a provocative claim: “Trump is making China great again.”

Canada takes the lead in re-engaging China

In his Tuesday speech at Davos, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney described a “rupture in the world order” and the “onset of a brutal reality where geopolitical relations between major powers are no longer subject to constraints.”

Carney acknowledged that the so-called rules-based international order, frequently invoked by Western nations in recent decades, was built on double standards. He noted that trade rules had been applied “asymmetrically” and that the law was enforced with varying degrees of rigor “depending on the identity of the accused or the victim.”

While this arrangement remained profitable for the West for a long period, Carney suggested the landscape has shifted for countries like Canada. He observed that major powers are now utilizing economic warfare to force other nations into submission.

For middle powers, Carney argued the challenge is not merely “adapting to a new reality,” as “everyone is already forced to adapt.” Warning against isolationism, he advocated for “variable geometry”—a flexible foreign policy involving different coalitions for different interests.

A strategic partnership with Beijing

Canada has already begun implementing this new doctrine. In mid-January, during the first visit by a Canadian head of government to Beijing since 2017, Carney signed a new “strategic partnership” agreement with China.

This partnership envisions robust cooperation in the energy sector, with Carney actively encouraging Chinese energy investment in Canada during his visit. Most notably, Canada is slashing tariffs on Chinese electric vehicle (EV) imports from 100% to 6.1%, a reduction applicable to up to 49,000 units. Furthermore, Chinese firms will assist in establishing EV supply chains within Canada.

In return, China agreed to lower the retaliatory high tariffs it had previously imposed on Canadian goods. Canada aims to increase its exports to China by 50% by 2030.

Deeper political cooperation is also on the agenda. Carney plans to return to China in November for the APEC summit in Shenzhen. By doing so, Ottawa is effectively bypassing Washington’s pressure to decouple from Beijing while simultaneously creating alternatives to US business dominance.

ECFR: Trump is making China great again

The Trump administration’s attempt to coerce Canada appears to have backfired, pushing the country toward closer cooperation with China—a trend that is unlikely to remain an isolated case.

A recent survey published by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) confirms this trajectory. The poll, conducted in November 2025 across 21 countries, shows a significant decline in the percentage of people who view the US as an ally with shared values and interests.

In Brazil, this figure dropped from 29% to 26%, while in the UK, it plummeted from 37% to 25%. Conversely, the perception of China as a partner is rising. In Brazil, it grew from 24% to 27%, and in India—a country with a traditional wariness of Beijing—it doubled from 11% to 22%.

In nearly every surveyed nation, the number of people viewing the People’s Republic as an ally or partner now outweighs those who see it as a rival or enemy. As Washington’s allies increasingly fear becoming “victims of a predatory US,” the ECFR noted that “the world seems to be opening up to China.” The council titled its analysis: “How Trump is making China great again.”

Canada is Not Alone: Britain’s quiet flirtation with China

Similar maneuvers are emerging across other Western capitals. Reports indicate that British Prime Minister Keir Starmer is planning a visit to Beijing next week. According to insiders, the trip aims to revive the “golden era” of British-Chinese economic relations celebrated a decade ago.

On Tuesday, London approved long-stalled plans to build China’s largest European embassy at the historic Royal Mint Court near the Tower of London. The move is seen by Beijing as a necessary gesture of goodwill to strengthen bilateral ties.

Alongside Starmer’s visit, the UK-China CEO Council—a major economic forum established in 2018 but later shuttered—is set to be reactivated. Major British firms including HSBC, BP, Rolls-Royce, and AstraZeneca have reportedly expressed interest, matched by Chinese giants such as the Bank of China, China Mobile, and EV manufacturer BYD.

However, observers caution that interference and obstruction from external powers remain a distinct possibility.

The EU’s hesitation: Seeking a balance with Russia

The response from Germany and the European Union remains ambiguous. On one hand, Brussels is showing signs of a thaw with Beijing regarding electric vehicles.

In November 2024, the European Commission aligned with the US by imposing heavy tariffs on Chinese EV imports. However, last week it reversed course, setting aside those tariffs in favor of rules establishing minimum price floors for Chinese vehicles.

Conversely, the Commission is drafting new cybersecurity regulations that could ban all components from Chinese tech giants Huawei and ZTE, a move likely to escalate tensions.

Reports suggest German Chancellor Friedrich Merz will travel to China in late February accompanied by a high-profile business delegation. Last week, Merz argued that Russia is “a European country” and expressed hope for an eventual balance with Russia as “Europe’s largest neighbor.” According to German Foreign Policy, such a statement would have been unthinkable just years ago, signaling a historical German tendency to look East for balance when Western alliances fracture.

Plans for Europe as a military power

Speaking at Davos on Thursday, Merz stated that the world has “crossed the threshold into a new era of great power competition” that leaves Europe “exposed to challenges and dangers.” He argued this necessitates a “stronger Europe.”

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen echoed this sentiment on Tuesday, stating that current “geopolitical shocks” confirm the “need to create a new form of European independence.”

According to von der Leyen, this independence should be pursued through “dialogue with our friends and partners,” but also, if necessary, with “our rivals.”

Neither Merz nor von der Leyen left any doubt that this “sovereign Europe” is not intended to be the “civilian power” of the past. Instead, they envision a heavily armed military bloc capable of engaging in conflict even against major powers to secure its interests.

Diplomacy

Vance leads indirect push for US-Iran ceasefire and nuclear talks

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US Vice-President JD Vance has been personally involved over the past two weeks in indirect talks with Iran aimed at securing a fresh ceasefire and restarting nuclear negotiations.

According to Axios, Vance’s intense engagement indicates that he has taken it upon himself to extract the US from the conflict, which he views as responsible for the Republican Party’s shocking losses in this week’s elections.

This elevates the latest round of indirect talks to the highest echelons of the administration.

US officials and regional sources state that Trump is currently willing to let diplomatic efforts run their course to see whether any agreement is achievable.

Asked by reporters on Friday what his message was to Iran, Trump said, “We are talking to them.”

According to sources with direct knowledge of the matter, Vance speaks almost daily with Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, Pakistan’s Chief of Army Staff Field Marshal Asim Munir, and other mediators regarding the negotiations with Iran.

White House envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, President Trump’s adviser and son-in-law, are also involved in the process.

Sources say Vance and the Qatari and Pakistani mediators have been discussing the possibility of holding a working-level technical meeting between the US and Iran in the coming days, though this has not yet materialized.

Before the war began in late February, Vance was among the most sceptical voices in Trump’s inner circle on the issue, advocating instead for a diplomatic solution.

In April, he led the US negotiating delegation at the Iran summit held in Islamabad and was personally involved in the talks that yielded a memorandum of understanding (MOU) signed between the US and Iran in June.

Vance subsequently headed the US delegation during a series of direct talks with Iran in Switzerland.

Two weeks ago, Vance sent a letter to Mohsen Rezaei, Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, proposing that direct negotiations resume.

Rezaei is one of the closest advisers to Iran’s Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei.

Iranian officials noted that Vance’s letter generated positive momentum toward restarting talks.

On Wednesday, Vance said the war was the primary reason for the Republicans’ repudiation at the polls.

Sources involved in mediation efforts report that while progress is being made, the process is moving very slowly.

On Friday evening, the prime minister of Qatar said, “Over the past few weeks, we worked with our colleagues in the US administration who have a sincere intention to contain the situation and de-escalate. Thanks to them and the voices of reason in Tehran, we prevented the situation from spinning out of control.”

The prime minister added that discussions with the Trump administration continued following the midterm elections, though they were not as active as in previous days “because there are other matters.”

Nevertheless, he noted that the US intention to find a diplomatic resolution “remains ongoing” and emphasized that an agreement is possible.

On Friday morning, Trump and the Emir of Qatar discussed Qatari efforts to bridge differences between the US and Iran as part of an accord.

According to a statement from his office, Sheikh Tamim emphasized the necessity of “pursuing dialogue and diplomatic channels to resolve differences, prevent the region from facing further escalation, and ensure freedom of maritime navigation as well as the security of energy supplies.”

Separately, Trump confirmed on Friday that the US military conducted a strike on an anti-aircraft missile launcher on Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz after it fired a missile at a US fighter jet.

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Diplomacy

Ukraine faces demographic collapse as fertility rates slide

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British magazine The Economist reported that mobilization, conflict casualties, and pervasive uncertainty have left Ukraine confronting the threat of demographic collapse.

According to data cited by the magazine, Ukraine’s fertility rate has declined from 1.2 children per woman in 2020 to between 0.8 and 0.9.

This rate marks a lower level than that of any major nation except South Korea.

In the first half of 2026, the number of deaths in Ukraine surpassed the number of newborn babies threefold.

The report noted that ever since independence was gained in 1991, the number of births in the country has lagged behind the number of deaths every year.

The Economist emphasized that the demographic collapse driven by the ongoing fighting constitutes an “existential threat.”

The magazine identified mass refugee migration as the principal driver of the population loss.

More than 5 million Ukrainians reside abroad, predominantly in Europe.

The proportion of those wishing to return among those who left the country is also steadily shrinking.

According to data from the Centre for Economic Strategy (CES), the share of those seeking to return dropped from 74% in 2022 to 43%.

The fact that the majority of refugees consist of Ukrainian children and women under the age of 44 further aggravates the demographic picture.

The Kyiv government decided to exempt men under the age of 25 from mobilization to alleviate the demographic decline.

The magazine reported, however, that many young people have fled the country, while those who remain do not plan to start families.

Projections cited in the report indicate that even if hostilities cease in the coming years, Ukraine can, at best, expect merely a deceleration of depopulation.

Olga Duhnich, an expert at the Ukraine-based think tank Frontier Institute, stated that the generation born in the 1990s and 2000s is the least populous in Ukraine’s modern history, meaning the country cannot expect a post-conflict baby boom.

The United Nations (UN) projects that Ukraine’s population will decline by 0.7% to 0.9% each year over the next two decades.

Under this projection, Ukraine’s population will fall to approximately 25 million by 2040.

If hostilities drag on, people are expected to abandon plans to have children, deepening the crisis even further.

Beyond exempting men under 25 from mobilization, the Kyiv government is rolling out various support packages to boost birth rates.

Under legislation enacted in the country, parents who have children receive a direct payment of 50,000 hryvnias (around $1,100).

Parents are also paid 7,000 hryvnias each month during the first year.

Other state programmes subsidize childcare costs, while Ukrainian soldiers are granted free freezing of egg and sperm cells.

Ukrainian Minister of Social Policy Denis Ulyutin said in May to the Livyi Bereh media outlet that roughly 22 to 25 million people lived in government-controlled territories.

Ulyutin characterized the prevailing picture by saying: “This is a catastrophe.”

Ella Libanova, Director of the Institute for Demography and Quality of Life Research, estimated the population at 29 million during the same period.

Libanova attributed the steep fall from a population of 30 million in 2025 to high death rates and the demographic crisis.

In a statement in October, Libanova announced that Ukraine’s population had slipped to 28.5 million.

Institute Director Libanova said: “The population is already at 28.5 million; we lost half a million people. We lost them, but thankfully this was still caused by migration rather than casualties.”

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Armenian opposition urged to form joint front against constitution

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Narek Karapetyan, a lawmaker and head of the Strong Armenia faction in the Armenian parliament, has urged opposition parties to unite around four core principles set out in a joint declaration.

The key points of the declaration include resisting territorial concessions and blocking the adoption of a new constitution, which the opposition has termed the “Aliyev constitution”.

According to a report by Aysor.am, Narek Karapetyan stated that the opposition meeting was originally planned to be led by his uncle, businessman and Strong Armenia movement leader Samvel Karapetyan.

“We initiated the meeting, but the authorities took preemptive steps to prevent Samvel Karapetyan from launching the national unification process,” Narek Karapetyan said.

Noting that, despite these events, opposition representatives convened and signed a joint declaration based on four agreed articles, Narek Karapetyan invited other opposition forces and members of the public to join the alliance.

“We will not allow them to implement the Aliyev constitution in Armenia. We must unite,” Karapetyan said.

Ahead of these developments, Armenian National Security Service personnel detained Strong Armenia Party leader Samvel Karapetyan following a search of his home.

The party’s press secretary, Agavni Sukiasyan, announced that on the morning of the same day, the Investigative Committee of Armenia searched the homes of both Samvel Karapetyan and Narek Karapetyan.

In a report citing the Investigative Committee, Armenpress stated that Samvel Karapetyan was detained as part of a case involving allegations of causing large-scale financial damage to the Electric Networks of Armenia (ENA) company, embezzling entrusted property, and money laundering.

According to committee figures, the total damage inflicted on the company exceeds $179 million.

Narek Karapetyan’s home was also searched at the end of July as part of a criminal case.

On 22 July, Armenia’s Central Electoral Commission approved the Prosecutor General’s request to strip Narek Karapetyan of his parliamentary immunity, and Karapetyan was charged with large-scale money laundering.

According to information reported by Sputnik Armenia, the investigation is linked to charges brought against Strong Armenia supporter Aleksan Aleksanyan.

Investigative authorities allege that Aleksanyan received approximately $4.4 million and €230,000 from the Karapetyan-owned Tashir Foundation under the guise of gifts and loans.

Several criminal cases had previously been opened against Samvel Karapetyan.

In 2025, Karapetyan was charged with publicly calling for the violent seizure of power after backing the Armenian Apostolic Church, which had been criticized by Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan.

In January, legal proceedings were also launched against Karapetyan on charges of large-scale tax evasion and money laundering.

Separately, in early July 2025, the Armenian parliament approved a bill enabling the nationalization of the Electric Networks of Armenia company.

In March, Armenia’s Constitutional Court ruled that the nationalization process in question complied with the law.

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