Diplomacy
Trump’s pressure campaign pushes Western allies into China’s embrace
Governments across the Western world are increasingly seeking political and economic alternatives to reduce their dependence on the Trump administration, initiating a strategic rapprochement with China. This shift serves as a direct response to Washington’s intensified efforts to bring its North American and European allies to heel.
According to an analysis by German Foreign Policy, Canada—currently facing threats of annexation from Washington—became the first to break ranks last week by signing a strategic partnership agreement with China.
During a high-profile address at the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos, Prime Minister Mark Carney justified the decision by pointing to a “breakdown in the world order,” noting that major powers are no longer “imposing constraints” upon themselves. Carney argued that the only way to avoid subjugation is through broad cooperation with other states.
The United Kingdom is similarly attempting to reconstruct its ties with the People’s Republic of China, while Berlin and Brussels continue to send conflicting signals. Assessing the consequences of US power politics, the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) recently posited a provocative claim: “Trump is making China great again.”
Canada takes the lead in re-engaging China
In his Tuesday speech at Davos, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney described a “rupture in the world order” and the “onset of a brutal reality where geopolitical relations between major powers are no longer subject to constraints.”
Carney acknowledged that the so-called rules-based international order, frequently invoked by Western nations in recent decades, was built on double standards. He noted that trade rules had been applied “asymmetrically” and that the law was enforced with varying degrees of rigor “depending on the identity of the accused or the victim.”
While this arrangement remained profitable for the West for a long period, Carney suggested the landscape has shifted for countries like Canada. He observed that major powers are now utilizing economic warfare to force other nations into submission.
For middle powers, Carney argued the challenge is not merely “adapting to a new reality,” as “everyone is already forced to adapt.” Warning against isolationism, he advocated for “variable geometry”—a flexible foreign policy involving different coalitions for different interests.
A strategic partnership with Beijing
Canada has already begun implementing this new doctrine. In mid-January, during the first visit by a Canadian head of government to Beijing since 2017, Carney signed a new “strategic partnership” agreement with China.
This partnership envisions robust cooperation in the energy sector, with Carney actively encouraging Chinese energy investment in Canada during his visit. Most notably, Canada is slashing tariffs on Chinese electric vehicle (EV) imports from 100% to 6.1%, a reduction applicable to up to 49,000 units. Furthermore, Chinese firms will assist in establishing EV supply chains within Canada.
In return, China agreed to lower the retaliatory high tariffs it had previously imposed on Canadian goods. Canada aims to increase its exports to China by 50% by 2030.
Deeper political cooperation is also on the agenda. Carney plans to return to China in November for the APEC summit in Shenzhen. By doing so, Ottawa is effectively bypassing Washington’s pressure to decouple from Beijing while simultaneously creating alternatives to US business dominance.
ECFR: Trump is making China great again
The Trump administration’s attempt to coerce Canada appears to have backfired, pushing the country toward closer cooperation with China—a trend that is unlikely to remain an isolated case.
A recent survey published by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) confirms this trajectory. The poll, conducted in November 2025 across 21 countries, shows a significant decline in the percentage of people who view the US as an ally with shared values and interests.
In Brazil, this figure dropped from 29% to 26%, while in the UK, it plummeted from 37% to 25%. Conversely, the perception of China as a partner is rising. In Brazil, it grew from 24% to 27%, and in India—a country with a traditional wariness of Beijing—it doubled from 11% to 22%.
In nearly every surveyed nation, the number of people viewing the People’s Republic as an ally or partner now outweighs those who see it as a rival or enemy. As Washington’s allies increasingly fear becoming “victims of a predatory US,” the ECFR noted that “the world seems to be opening up to China.” The council titled its analysis: “How Trump is making China great again.”
Canada is Not Alone: Britain’s quiet flirtation with China
Similar maneuvers are emerging across other Western capitals. Reports indicate that British Prime Minister Keir Starmer is planning a visit to Beijing next week. According to insiders, the trip aims to revive the “golden era” of British-Chinese economic relations celebrated a decade ago.
On Tuesday, London approved long-stalled plans to build China’s largest European embassy at the historic Royal Mint Court near the Tower of London. The move is seen by Beijing as a necessary gesture of goodwill to strengthen bilateral ties.
Alongside Starmer’s visit, the UK-China CEO Council—a major economic forum established in 2018 but later shuttered—is set to be reactivated. Major British firms including HSBC, BP, Rolls-Royce, and AstraZeneca have reportedly expressed interest, matched by Chinese giants such as the Bank of China, China Mobile, and EV manufacturer BYD.
However, observers caution that interference and obstruction from external powers remain a distinct possibility.
The EU’s hesitation: Seeking a balance with Russia
The response from Germany and the European Union remains ambiguous. On one hand, Brussels is showing signs of a thaw with Beijing regarding electric vehicles.
In November 2024, the European Commission aligned with the US by imposing heavy tariffs on Chinese EV imports. However, last week it reversed course, setting aside those tariffs in favor of rules establishing minimum price floors for Chinese vehicles.
Conversely, the Commission is drafting new cybersecurity regulations that could ban all components from Chinese tech giants Huawei and ZTE, a move likely to escalate tensions.
Reports suggest German Chancellor Friedrich Merz will travel to China in late February accompanied by a high-profile business delegation. Last week, Merz argued that Russia is “a European country” and expressed hope for an eventual balance with Russia as “Europe’s largest neighbor.” According to German Foreign Policy, such a statement would have been unthinkable just years ago, signaling a historical German tendency to look East for balance when Western alliances fracture.
Plans for Europe as a military power
Speaking at Davos on Thursday, Merz stated that the world has “crossed the threshold into a new era of great power competition” that leaves Europe “exposed to challenges and dangers.” He argued this necessitates a “stronger Europe.”
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen echoed this sentiment on Tuesday, stating that current “geopolitical shocks” confirm the “need to create a new form of European independence.”
According to von der Leyen, this independence should be pursued through “dialogue with our friends and partners,” but also, if necessary, with “our rivals.”
Neither Merz nor von der Leyen left any doubt that this “sovereign Europe” is not intended to be the “civilian power” of the past. Instead, they envision a heavily armed military bloc capable of engaging in conflict even against major powers to secure its interests.
Diplomacy
Türkiye, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia defense agreement: An attack on one will be considered an attack on all
Türkiye, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia signed a joint defense agreement that deepens security cooperation at a time of rising military tensions and conflicts in the Middle East. The agreement stipulates that an armed attack against any one of the three states will be considered an attack against all of them.
Türkiye, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan signed a joint defense agreement at a trilateral summit held in Mecca on Friday, pledging to strengthen collective security, deepen defense cooperation and support peace and stability in the region and beyond.
The “Mecca Joint Defense Agreement” was signed at a summit held at Al-Safa Palace by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif.
According to a statement issued by Türkiye’s Directorate of Communications, the agreement reflects the three countries’ shared determination to strengthen their collective security on the basis of their longstanding historical ties, Islamic solidarity, common strategic interests and close defense cooperation.
The agreement aims to strengthen collective deterrence against any act of aggression and provides that an armed attack against any one of the three countries will be considered an attack against all of them.
The agreement also provides for the development of defense cooperation among the three countries in all fields.
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Makkah Al-Mukarramah Summit for Joint Defence
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— Ministry of Foreign Affairs – Pakistan (@ForeignOfficePk) August 7, 2026
Saudi King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud hosted Erdoğan and Sharif in Saudi Arabia for the summit.
President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan traveled to Saudi Arabia on Friday and met with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, meanwhile, arrived in Saudi Arabia a day earlier together with the country’s Chief of Army Staff Asim Munir and performed Umrah in Mecca.
Iran and its allies have been targeting Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries and obstructing their energy shipments since the United States and Israel launched a war against Iran on February 28, escalating tensions in the region.
According to a joint statement by the three countries, the agreement aims to strengthen collective deterrence against any act of aggression and provides that an armed attack against any one of the three countries will be considered an attack against all of them.
The joint statement did not specify the details of the obligations undertaken by the parties under the “Mecca Joint Defense Agreement.” It noted, however, that the agreement aims to strengthen collective security and promote peace, security and stability in the region and beyond.
A Turkish official told Reuters, “The pact includes a collective defense clause. It is entirely defensive and commits the parties to mutual support solely for defensive purposes.”
The official also said the agreement was not directed against any specific actor, was open to the participation of other countries in the region, and did not invalidate or replace any existing bilateral or multilateral arrangement.
At the same time, the three countries are concerned both about Israel’s increasing aggression and Iran’s expanding influence at a time when their longstanding ally, the United States, is struggling to contain regional turmoil.
Strong political symbolism
Abdulaziz Sager, chairman of the Saudi-based Gulf Research Center, said, “The political symbolism of the summit is significant. Three of the most influential countries in the Muslim world are coming together at a time of growing uncertainty. This shows the increasing willingness of regional and middle powers to coordinate more closely on security issues.”
Sager added, “If the trilateral mechanism is institutionalized and translated into concrete cooperation, it could strengthen the combined diplomatic and defense weight of the three countries while also contributing to the emergence of a security architecture that is more strongly shaped by regional dynamics.”
Türkiye has NATO’s second-largest army. Saudi Arabia, the Gulf’s most powerful country, is one of the world’s largest oil exporters. Pakistan, meanwhile, is the only Muslim country with nuclear weapons.
The Iran factor
Since the war began on February 28, Saudi Arabia has been targeted by Iran as well as its Houthi allies in Yemen and Shiite militias in Iraq because it hosts U.S. military bases.
The conflict has also brought most shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, which carried around one-fifth of global energy supplies before the war, to a halt.
For Saudi Arabia, the consequences of the conflicts in the Middle East over the past three years have been more severe. While the conflicts have endangered the country’s oil exports and ambitious development plans, they have also raised serious questions about the reliability of the U.S. security umbrella on which Riyadh has relied for many years.
A senior Saudi official told Reuters on Thursday that the country expects coordinated attacks in the near future from both Iraqi militias and the Houthis under Iranian direction. This raises questions about how the new alliance would respond to such attacks.
Iran-aligned Welayat News described the agreement as a Saudi request for assistance. The report included the following assessment: “Ansarullah’s Yemen-based equation of ‘blockade for blockade, escalation for escalation’ has put the Saudis under pressure. At Saudi Arabia’s initiative, a defense alliance between Türkiye, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan is expected to be signed today.”
Although Türkiye and Pakistan have avoided major direct attacks, both countries want the conflicts that threaten their own security and economic conditions to be de-escalated.
According to a Reuters report in May, Pakistan deployed around 8,000 troops, fighter aircraft, drones and an air defense system to Saudi Arabia and moved toward developing broader security ties across the Gulf.
Reuters reported in July that Pakistan had also begun negotiations with Kuwait on an expanded security agreement in exchange for energy cooperation and investment.
The AP news agency also noted that the agreement was announced at a time when Türkiye’s relations with Israel have become strained over the conflicts in Iran, Lebanon and Gaza.
Former Israeli official: Türkiye will not fight the Houthis simply because Saudi Arabia asks
Commenting on the defense agreement between Saudi Arabia, Türkiye and Pakistan, former head of Israel’s National Security Council Prof. Jacob Nagel said Saudi Arabia is not as powerful as it appears and described the country as a “paper tiger.”
Speaking to The Jerusalem Post, Nagel said, “You have to understand this: despite all its wealth and weapons, Saudi Arabia is to a large extent a paper tiger. It has a great deal of weaponry and a great deal of money, but militarily it cannot even manage to get through the day.”
On whether Türkiye would defend Saudi Arabia under the agreement, Nagel said, “I do not think the Turks will send their navy and attack the Houthis simply because the Houthis attacked the Saudis. That certainly does not align with my realistic view of the region.”
According to Nagel, Saudi Arabia is therefore looking for alternatives.
“Saudi Arabia understands that it is in serious trouble, both financially and in terms of security. Even before the recent wars, we saw them take the surprising step of signing an agreement with Iran. They did this because they were afraid and felt exposed to the concrete Iranian threat, as well as to Iran’s militias across the Middle East.”
Nagel continued:
“The Saudis’ problem is that despite having the most advanced equipment, aircraft and intelligence capabilities, they do not know how to use this power effectively on the ground. For that reason, all this talk of new alliances with Pakistan or Türkiye should be approached with considerable caution.”
Nagel also said, “This is more of a diplomatic maneuver aimed at putting pressure on the U.S. administration.”
“The Saudis are disappointed with the U.S. position. Particularly in light of the shortcomings they have identified in missile and interceptor ammunition stockpiles in the West, they are trying to send the message that they will not be left alone in the struggle against the Shiite axis.”
Diplomacy
US lawmakers seek terrorist designation for Polisario Front
US Representatives Josh Gottheimer and Ronny Jackson introduced the “Polisario Front Terrorist Designation Act” to Congress on July 30, calling on the State Department to designate the Polisario Front as a foreign terrorist organization.
The bill, drafted by Gottheimer of New Jersey and Jackson of Texas, alleges that the Polisario Front receives support from Iran and poses a threat to US national security.
Gottheimer said groups linked to the Iranian government were seeking to open a new front against the US and its allies and argued that the Polisario Front had become one of the instruments used for that purpose.
However, Gottheimer also acknowledged that such cooperation between Iran and the Polisario Front has not yet been verified.
“This bipartisan bill will ensure that, once such cooperation is confirmed, US counterterrorism sanctions are fully applied against the Polisario Front,” Gottheimer said.
The proposal follows similar legislation introduced in Congress in 2025, including an initiative by Republican Senator Ted Cruz.
Polisario Front backs Western Sahara independence
The Polisario Front advocates the creation of an independent state in Western Sahara, which is largely under Moroccan control. The movement was founded in May 1973 to fight Spanish colonial rule in the territory.
After Spain withdrew from the territory in 1976, the Polisario Front proclaimed the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic, whose government-in-exile is based in Algeria. Morocco soon took control of most of Western Sahara and maintains that the territory is part of its sovereign land.
The name Polisario is derived from the Spanish title “Popular Front for the Liberation of Saguia el-Hamra and Rio de Oro.”
US President Donald Trump recognized Morocco’s sovereignty claim over Western Sahara in 2020 in exchange for Rabat normalizing relations with Israel under the Abraham Accords.
France, the United Kingdom, Germany, the Netherlands and Spain later backed Morocco’s position on the territory.
Morocco, one of Washington’s major non-NATO allies, has continued expanding its military and political ties with both Washington and Tel Aviv. According to the Hudson Institute, designating the Polisario Front as a foreign terrorist organization could further strengthen the US-Morocco alliance.
Morocco sent troops to the Gaza international force
In July, Morocco became the first Arab and African country to commit troops to the International Stabilization Force that is expected to operate in Gaza under Trump’s “Peace Board” administration.
Rabat formally signed the agreement governing its participation in the force on July 15. The International Stabilization Force is expected to operate in coordination with the Israeli military.
A pro-Palestinian Moroccan activist criticized the country’s role in the force, saying: “I do not know what role Morocco will play other than disarming Hamas and perhaps even overseeing the recolonization of Gaza under the US-Israel axis.”
Morocco has continued strengthening military and security ties with Israel since signing the Abraham Accords.
Israeli troops openly participated in Morocco’s annual African Lion exercise in May 2025. The Israeli flag was displayed for the first time during the opening ceremony of the exercise, jointly organized by the Rabat government and US Africa Command and involving about 10,000 troops from more than 40 countries.
Ceuta and Melilla dispute also in focus
The Moroccan government was reported last week to have organized the movement of tens of thousands of Moroccan male migrants toward Ceuta, the Spanish territory on the North African coast.
A US congressional budget report adopted in July also described Ceuta and Melilla for the first time as Spanish-administered cities “located on Moroccan territory” and “long claimed by Morocco.”
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had called for Spain to be punished for attempting to block the delivery of US weapons to the Israeli military for use in operations in Gaza. The migrant influx toward Ceuta was welcomed by a significant portion of Israeli social media users.
Responsible Statecraft wrote that the Moroccan government may have resorted to “migration blackmail” to pressure European countries. The publication added: “This time, however, the primary beneficiaries appear to be Israel and the US.”
Diplomacy
Türkiye, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan set to sign defence pact
Türkiye, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan are expected to sign a joint defence agreement in Saudi Arabia on Friday.
Two regional sources with direct knowledge of the matter told Reuters that Türkiye, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan would sign a joint defence agreement in Saudi Arabia on Friday.
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif will meet in the Saudi port city as regional powers seek to strengthen security ties during the war with Iran.
Regional powers are seeking to bolster security ties amid conditions created by the US-Israeli war against Iran, which has also drawn in Gulf states and disrupted maritime shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea.
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is expected to meet President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif in Jeddah on the Red Sea coast.
Pakistani Prime Minister Sharif and Pakistan’s Chief of Army Staff Asim Munir arrived in the country for a visit running from Thursday to Saturday, while Erdogan is expected to travel to Saudi Arabia on Friday, according to the Turkish presidency.
A senior Turkish intelligence source told CNN-News18 that all the core terms of the alliance had been fully prepared, communicated to the parties and accepted by the leaders of Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Türkiye.
Since Pakistan and Saudi Arabia signed a mutual defence agreement last year, there has been discussion that the two countries wanted to bring other states in West Asia and South Asia into the defence bloc.
Alliance to draw on Saudi finance, Turkish tech, Pakistani nukes
According to CNN-News18, the Pakistan-Saudi Arabia-Türkiye agreement is a natural extension of the Saudi Arabia-Pakistan mutual defence agreement announced last year.
As with the Saudi Arabia-Pakistan agreement, the trilateral alliance will draw on the different strengths of each member state to create an integrated security network.
CNN-News18 said Saudi Arabia would contribute its financial power and regional influence; Türkiye would provide advanced military technology, particularly drones, along with a NATO-standard defence industry infrastructure; and Pakistan would contribute its nuclear capability and battle-experienced military.
The alliance will include joint military exercises, technology transfers, defence industry production and intelligence-sharing.
Under the Saudi Arabia-Pakistan mutual defence agreement, Pakistan had agreed to deploy about 25,000 troops to Saudi Arabia, backed by armoured units, artillery, infantry and rocket forces, as well as two air force squadrons and two naval squadrons. The deployment was said to be intended to contribute to the kingdom’s security, conduct joint operations and train Saudi forces in return for $10 billion in Saudi investment.
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