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UK energy security at risk as Iran conflict drains critical gas reserves

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Britain faces a mounting economic crisis as the protracted conflict in Iran threatens to destabilize the nation’s energy security and fiscal health. While the war’s onset was marked by diplomatic friction with Donald Trump over access to British military bases, the deepening struggle now risks pushing the United Kingdom toward a financial precipice.

According to reports in The Times, Britain’s gas infrastructure is under unprecedented strain, with dwindling supplies from the Middle East leaving the nation with as little as two days’ worth of gas stocks in storage.

Compounding the crisis, the UK is currently paying the highest energy prices in Europe—a 6% premium over its continental neighbors—a disparity analysts attribute directly to the rapid depletion of strategic reserves. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains paralyzed, while Qatar has suspended production at Ras Laffan, the world’s largest liquefied natural gas (LNG) facility, following a series of drone strikes.

On Monday, Brent crude surged past $100 per barrel as traders braced for supply disruptions expected to last several weeks. Domestically, British petrol prices began an upward climb last week, signaling immediate inflationary pressure on consumers.

The Island’s gas primarily sourced from Europe

Britain remains heavily dependent on cross-channel infrastructure, with pipelines from Europe accounting for 30% of the nation’s total energy requirements over the past week.

While the risk of immediate blackouts has not yet materialized, the convergence of restricted Middle Eastern supply and a potential European cold snap could turn the current reserve deficit into a full-blown emergency. Data from the transmission operator, National Gas, reveals a precipitous drop in UK gas reserves, falling from 18,000 GWh three months ago to just 6,700 GWh. While this downward trend mirrors seasonal patterns, stocks are significantly lower than the 9,000 GWh recorded during the same period last year.

Current levels represent less than two days of supply if pipeline imports were to cease. A similar volume is currently held as LNG. Should a cold wave coincide with continued Middle Eastern volatility, prices are expected to spike, forcing Britain to pay a substantial premium to secure necessary imports.

The vulnerability of the British consumer is stark; internal data suggests that without government intervention to subsidize household bills, the average annual price cap would have soared to £4,279 in 2023.

Increasing significance of North Sea fields and Norway

In February, National Gas advised ministers that because Britain maintains significantly lower reserves than most European peers, the government must take urgent measures to fortify future supply—including North Sea production—and accelerate the development of storage capacity.

The impact of rising wholesale costs will soon reach the public. Although the Ofgem energy price cap is set to fall to £1,641 for the average household in April, the benefit will likely be short-lived. Cornwall Insight, an energy research consultancy, forecasts that the cap for a typical dual-fuel household will rise by 10% to £1,801 when the next adjustment takes effect in July.

Businesses, which do not benefit from the domestic price cap, are even more exposed. Many are expected to face immediate tariff hikes, with the majority likely to pass these increased operating costs directly to consumers.

Meanwhile, North Sea production continues its structural decline. The state-owned National Energy System Operator has issued a formal warning regarding a “new risk to gas supply security,” noting that if the transition to green energy remains sluggish or if a single major gas infrastructure component fails, Britain may lack sufficient supply to meet its needs by 2030.

National Gas maintains that the government must “protect existing storage capacity and facilitate expansion” to build the resilience necessary to withstand shipping delays, market shocks, or extreme weather events.

Gas storage issues could plague the British government

Mike Foster, Chief Executive of the Energy and Utilities Alliance (EUA), noted that successive administrations were warned about the inadequacy of gas reserves more than a decade ago.

“A lack of investment has left the UK vulnerable, and the responsibility lies with previous leadership,” Foster said. He added that while the country still benefits from significant North Sea resources—both domestic and Norwegian—which together meet approximately 80% of national demand, the system remains fragile.

Foster emphasized that facilities like Rough, Britain’s largest gas storage site which has faced threats of closure, provide a critical safety net. “Without these facilities, the system becomes far more susceptible to global shocks, such as the current instability in Ukraine and Iran,” he noted.

National Gas offered a more measured assessment, stating: “Britain’s gas storage levels are largely in line with what we expect for this time of year and are at similar levels compared to the same period last year. Storage represents only a small component of Britain’s diverse gas supply mix. Most of our gas is sourced from the UK Continental Shelf and Norway, bolstered by LNG, interconnectors with mainland Europe, and storage.”

Government denies “two-day supply” claims

A government source dismissed the narrative that Britain is down to its final two days of gas, labeling the figures “dubious calculations.”

“This assumes that storage is the only form of supply and simply divides storage stocks by daily demand,” the source said. “Gas markets do not function that way. Storage represents a relatively low % of the supply mix at any given time.”

The Department for Energy Security and Net Zero echoed this sentiment, stating: “The claim that Britain only has access to two days of gas supply is categorically untrue. We have a diverse range of energy sources and remain confident in our security of supply. As we transition to more secure, clean, and domestic energy, gas will continue to play a vital role in our resilient system. We are working with the sector to ensure the gas system is fit for the future, including maintaining security of supply under even the most improbable scenarios.”

Starmer warns: Protracted war will deepen economic impact

Addressing the conflict in Iran, Prime Minister Keir Starmer acknowledged that the longer the hostilities continue, the greater the potential damage to the UK economy.

“The government’s duty is to move forward, to look ahead, and to cooperate with others,” the Prime Minister said. “The Chancellor is in daily contact with the Governor of the Bank of England, collaborating across departments to assess and monitor risks. We are speaking with international partners about what more we can do together to mitigate the impact on our people and businesses.”

Starmer added that recognizing the necessity of this work is vital, as the public and businesses will feel the weight of the situation the longer it persists. He characterized the government’s role as one of “getting ahead of the situation, assessing risk, and collaborating on a response.”

While Starmer suggested the energy cap would shield households from the worst of the economic turbulence, he admitted that businesses would be “rightly concerned” and are watching developments with apprehension.

When asked if Donald Trump’s military actions risked a global conflict, the Prime Minister responded: “We must find a way to de-escalate the situation. Much of our discussion is focused on how we can find a path to de-escalation and ensure this does not spiral further.”

Starmer also asserted that the UK economy is in a stronger position now than it was in 2022, when the war in Ukraine triggered an initial energy price shock.

American and British troops defend jointly

The Prime Minister confirmed that the US is currently utilizing British airbases in relation to the Iran conflict, noting that “at every level,” there is daily intelligence cooperation and contact between London and Washington.

“In the region, our military personnel and US personnel are co-located at the same bases,” Starmer said. “Both the US and the UK are working together to protect those bases. In terms of the relationship, the work we must do together continues as you would expect.”

However, Starmer emphasized that decisions regarding Britain’s “best interests” remain solely the prerogative of the British Prime Minister, citing this as the “fundamental principle” guiding his decisions on Iran.

Chancellor under pressure to scrap fuel tax hike

Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves is facing intense political pressure to cancel a planned fuel tariff increase scheduled for September. The hike would occur as the government withdraws a temporary relief measure introduced four years ago, leading to higher costs for petrol and diesel.

In an interview with the Press Association, Conservative Party leader Kemi Badenoch signaled she would challenge the government in Parliament to extend the 5p cut in fuel tariff.

“In last week’s spring statement, Rachel Reeves indicated the 5p cut would only last until September,” Badenoch said. “Given world events, we must extend this relief. Tomorrow, we will vote to keep the fuel tariff as low as possible. These measures are what truly help reduce the cost of living for people.”

A policy document dated February 26 regarding fuel tariff rates states: “Alongside other measures announced in Budget 2025 to address the cost of living, this measure continues to support drivers by freezing current fuel tariff rates until the end of August 2026. Rates will gradually return to March 2022 levels by March 2027, preventing a 5p increase in March 2026 when the cut was set to expire. The planned inflation-linked increase for 2026-2027 is also being cancelled. This measure will save the average driver £49 in 2026-2027 compared to previous plans.”

Housing Minister: Our economy is resilient to shocks

Housing Minister Steve Reed acknowledged the scale of the economic uncertainty but maintained that the British economy is robust enough to weather the storm.

“Britain cannot control crises happening across the planet that affect our country,” Reed told ITV’s Good Morning Britain. “What we can control are our own circumstances.”

While admitting the long-term costs of energy prices remain unknown, Reed argued: “Having a more stable economy means we are in a better position to weather these storms. We will, of course, continue to monitor the situation closely.”

Interest rate cuts may be deferred

The sharp rise in oil prices is forcing financial markets to reassess the trajectory of British interest rates.

“A sustained move for Brent crude above $100 effectively acts as an inflationary tax,” said Jonathan Raymond, investment lead at Quilter Cheviot. “This increases business costs, squeezes real incomes, and risks keeping headline inflation above target for longer.”

Market data released Monday shows investors now expect the Bank of England to maintain the base rate at 3.75% through the end of the year, with some predicting a hike to 4% by June. Prior to the escalation in Iran, the probability of a rate cut at the Bank’s March 19 meeting was estimated at 80%.

Current market pricing indicates a 99% probability that rates will remain unchanged at the next meeting, with no cuts anticipated for the remainder of 2026.

Global markets also expect the European Central Bank (ECB) to hike Eurozone rates this year to combat oil-driven inflation. Money markets have fully priced in a quarter-point increase by July. Bloomberg reports that swaps now indicate a 70% chance of two 25-basis-point hikes from the ECB this year, a sharp increase from the single hike priced in as recently as Friday.

Chancellor Rachel Reeves remains in “daily” consultations with the Bank of England, according to the Prime Minister, as the government seeks to manage the fallout from the ongoing energy crisis.

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Anthropic uncovers Claude use by Iranian, Houthi, and Russian units

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11/09/2026

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Artificial intelligence company Anthropic has disclosed attempted “abuses” of its Claude AI model ranging from conventional weapons to biological research by state-linked entities, foreign intelligence services, and cybercrime networks, publishing the findings in a detailed threat intelligence report.

A significant portion of the report comprised the development of guided missile software by the Houthis in northern Yemen and the conversion of the model into a military reconnaissance tool by Iran-linked actors seeking to target US naval assets in the Middle East.

Covering the period between December 2025 and August 2026, the report shared details of activities detected across seven primary areas: cyberattacks, influence operations, mass surveillance, conventional weapons development, biological risks, and unauthorised model distillation.

The company announced that it had terminated all accounts violating its rules and shared the resulting data with relevant international counterparts.

According to findings by Anthropic’s Threat Intelligence unit, a weapons cell based in northern Yemen, where the Houthis operate, substituted human software engineers with the Claude Code system across three distinct missile development programmes.

These efforts comprised a tactical rocket equipped with a terminal guidance system powered by a commercial smartphone processor, a multi-stage ballistic missile with a target range exceeding 2,000 kilometres, and missile designs carrying a hypersonic glide vehicle.

The cell utilised the artificial intelligence to adapt open-source autopilot software to the smartphone processor, optimize flight control algorithms, and compile firmware.

Structuring their Claude accounts like a virtual engineering team, the Houthis assigned one account to write code, another to conduct research, and a third to review and audit the written code.

The report noted that the group conducted an actual test launch with a guided rocket in the Yemeni theatre.

Immediately following the failure of the live-fire test, the actors were documented returning to the Claude platform within hours to upload telemetry data and diagnose the cause of the malfunction.

The cell was observed successfully compiling offline simulation tools capable of operating independently even if access to Claude were severed.

Iran tracked US warships and personnel

Another military case detailed in the report involved attempts by Iran-linked cyber actors to target US naval forces in the Middle East.

These actors were found to have scraped open-source military data to draft operational targeting manuals directed against American warships and personnel.

Iran extracted name rosters of American military personnel from the captions of publicly accessible military photographs, monitored vessel and aircraft transponder data, authored code to scan commercial satellite imagery, and mapped vulnerabilities in maritime satellite communication terminals.

Other networks linked to the Tehran government were determined to have developed domestic and regional surveillance systems. A Qom-based unit produced a malicious web browser extension disguised as a prayer-time application to harvest credentials from social network users, funneling the data into a central case management system designated “Arman”.

Additionally, official Iranian institutions reportedly cloned authors’ voices using AI and operated multilingual disinformation networks to lay the groundwork for the supreme leadership succession.

Russia also used it for an autonomous kamikaze drone swarm

The report stated that an independent Russia-based software team developed fully autonomous kamikaze uncrewed aerial vehicle swarm software dubbed “DronDoc” or “Serafim”.

Affiliated with a university connected to the Russian Academy of Sciences, the team was said to have trained the artificial intelligence to distinguish between friendly and hostile elements using footage retrieved from the Ukrainian battlefield.

The developed system was designed with the capability to select targets, execute live human classification, and issue detonation commands without requiring human intervention, with simulations run directly against coordinates in the Donetsk region.

Meanwhile, the Russian-origin “Midnight Blizzard” group targeted the Ukrainian drone supply chain and staged attacks aimed at foreign officials and drone engineers by compromising hotel Wi-Fi networks.

A procurement manager stationed at a design bureau in Moscow was also discovered drafting plans via Claude to circumvent European sanctions. The individual was recorded assembling fraudulent tender and logistics correspondence to transport German-made magnetometers, space-grade photovoltaic sheets, and military aviation oxygen systems into Russia through intermediary firms based in China and Hong Kong.

Biological threats and pathogen engineering

The report disclosed five concrete cases regarding the deployment of artificial intelligence in hazardous biological research. Virologists attached to a military research institute were documented using AI for gain-of-function research aimed at enhancing the transmissibility and immune-evasion capabilities of the mosquito-borne Chikungunya virus.

Similarly, experimental designs were prepared to adapt the H5 avian influenza variant, which carries a 50% mortality rate in humans, to mammals and confer airborne transmission capabilities, while immune-evasion mechanisms of pathogens from the smallpox virus family were modelled.

The identities of paralytic neurotoxins subject to export control lists and haemorrhagic fever virus proteins featured on the World Health Organization’s priority epidemic list were deliberately masked and submitted to the AI for analysis.

In addition, a consultant working on behalf of the Malian State Intelligence Service designed a mass surveillance platform designated “Lakana 360” with the assistance of Claude.

The system was designed to monitor approximately 25 million SIM cards registered across three mobile operators in the country without requiring court orders, intercept audio recordings, and cross-reference records with biometric databases.

Separately, leading Chinese artificial intelligence firms including Alibaba, Moonshot, DeepSeek, Zhipu, and Xiaomi were alleged to have initiated hundreds of millions of unauthorised sessions to extract the logical reasoning chains of Claude models. Moonshot and DeepSeek platforms reportedly routed their own users’ queries secretly through Claude, in the process exposing Chinese police surveillance feeds from hundreds of cameras covering military facilities in Chengdu, internal credentials of Chinese state-owned enterprises, and live database access codes connected to the Russian Defence Ministry to third parties.

Türkiye detail in the report

The report also detailed cases involving the abuse of the Claude AI model, incorporating findings concerning an Istanbul-based technology firm.

In case GTG-84005 of the intelligence report, an operation aimed at commercial election manipulation targeting voters in Malaysia was intercepted.

According to the findings, the operation operated under the guise of a startup providing cyber intelligence and counter-disinformation tools. Anthropic determined that Istanbul-based BBS Bilisim Teknolojileri was behind the infrastructure.

According to documents, the company marketed the architecture as a paid influence operation service styled as a “military-grade, AI-powered, real-time political operations ecosystem”.

Managing roughly 1,000 synthetic X accounts, the system processed demographic and electoral data across 222 parliamentary constituencies in Malaysia, calibrating targeting around sensitive social fault lines including ethnicity, religion, and the monarchy.

The network also circulated content from Russian and Chinese state media masquerading as independent Malaysian news via an artificial media outlet designated “Malaysia Pulse”, while manufacturing fraudulent intelligence dossiers targeting an opposition politician and civil society organisations.

Anthropic reported that the network received a request to generate 1 million artificial impressions in support of the Malaysian Prime Minister and sought to secure a contract with the country’s national communications regulatory authority.

While no evidence emerged that the undertaking succeeded, the associated user accounts were closed and operational digital indicators were shared.

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EU pursues closer ties with Israel on space and air defence

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09/09/2026

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The EU is turning to Israel to bolster its new initiatives in high-tech air defence and space capabilities.

Shimrit Maman, head of the Israel Space Agency, travelled to Brussels this week and met on Tuesday with European Commissioner for Startups, Research and Innovation Ekaterina Zaharieva to discuss key sectors, including artificial intelligence and robotics.

The visit took place ahead of European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s first major speech on space, scheduled for Thursday at a summit in Paris.

In the speech, Von der Leyen is expected to warn against mounting hostilities and emphasise the necessity of strengthening Europe’s presence in space.

“It’s very hard to do everything by yourself,” Maman told Politico, adding that the militarization of space is “already happening, it’s just we are not aware of the extent,” and noting that allies are showing growing interest in “dual-use” technologies intended for both civilian and defence purposes:

“One thing we’re working on is early-warning systems. For example, during the last wave [of missile attacks] with Iran, we saw this very clearly. How we were getting the alerts to all the civilians in Israel, and that made the casualties so low. This is part of the system. We’re working on a very holistic view, where you can alert in advance, the system alerts the citizens.”

Following several years of effective disengagement caused by political tensions surrounding the invasion of Gaza, the EU has recently begun forging closer military and technological ties with Israel through a series of agreements.

Competition from Washington and strategic rivalry with Moscow and Beijing have nevertheless underlined the requirement for allies possessing sophisticated industrial capacity.

In 2024, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen backed calls by Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk and Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis to create an EU-funded air defence shield.

Three senior officials involved in the discussions said, however, that the plans stalled after officials in the Commission and several national capitals concluded that the project would require reliance on Israeli air defence technology, which was considered too sensitive one year into the Gaza conflict.

Yet Israel’s Rafael, which is expanding its European operations significantly, has now confirmed that it will open a factory to manufacture the Iron Dome air defence system at a former Volkswagen plant in Germany.

One week ago, Greece signed a 3 billion euro agreement with the Israel Ministry of Defense.

The deal provides for the establishment of a new multi-layered air defence network designed to shoot down drones, hostile jets, and rockets.

“We see everything integrating into this multi-layer defence approach,” Maman said, highlighting satellite imagery and artificial intelligence modelling as primary focal points for joint development efforts:

“I’m not only seeing defence as ballistic missiles from Iran… think about a fire, a flash flood or even a long drought… we have a proven track record, and we’re getting really good results.”

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UK reassures US that new Israeli settlement sanctions are symbolic

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08/09/2026

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The UK has reportedly engaged in behind-the-scenes talks to avoid a backlash from the US over anti-Israel sanctions scheduled for announcement today.

According to a report by Bloomberg, Andy Burnham’s government is expected to ban trade with Israeli settlements in the West Bank today.

Burnham is seeking to pursue a firmer stance on an issue of high importance to the governing Labour Party, though one that risks angering US President Donald Trump.

Foreign Secretary Ed Miliband will unveil a new sanctions regime targeting Israel but limited to Jewish settlements in the West Bank, according to sources familiar with the matter.

Burnham and Trump spoke by telephone on Monday, the Prime Minister’s Office said. A statement noted that the two leaders discussed a two-state solution for Israel and the Palestinian territories.

The discussion suggests that Burnham used the call to notify Trump that sanctions against Israel were imminent.

The proposals under review included a new sanctions regime with measures to block the exchange of goods and services with Israeli settlements.

Miliband also evaluated expanding existing human rights sanctions to encompass the blocking of aid, which has drawn criticism for exacerbating the humanitarian crisis in Gaza.

The Foreign Secretary further considered explicitly endorsing the International Court of Justice’s non-binding 2024 opinion that declared Israel’s occupation of territory currently recognised by the UK as the State of Palestine to be unlawful.

Even so, UK officials fear the announcement could cause an early setback in Burnham’s relationship with Trump.

To defuse a backlash from the Trump administration, British diplomats privately informed the US that the sanctions are largely symbolic and will have no tangible impact on the UK’s broader trade or security ties with Israel, according to sources familiar with the discussions.

The proposals were drawn up after Israel decided to issue tenders for the construction of 1,200 settlement housing units in an area of the West Bank.

Disputes between Israeli settlers and Palestinians have intensified in recent months as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces a difficult battle to retain his seat in a general election scheduled for 27 October.

Burnham joined the leaders of Canada and five European governments, including France, Germany, and Italy, in signing a statement that condemned the housing plan as “unacceptable” and urged Netanyahu to withdraw the tender.

In a separate statement, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz condemned a call by Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir for “nightly assassinations” in Gaza.

Burnham is eager to demonstrate early to the Labour Party that he is adopting a more critical approach toward Israel than his predecessor, Keir Starmer.

Although Starmer hardened his stance against Israel during his two years in office, including by formally recognising the State of Palestine, his initial refusal to demand that Netanyahu halt military operations in Gaza divided the party.

This division led to a decline in Labour’s poll ratings and boosted electoral gains for the Green Party across the country.

Burnham’s return to Parliament last month led to Starmer’s resignation. Burnham apologised for Labour’s handling of Israel’s military operation in Gaza under his predecessor, stating that the party “did not adopt the right stance”.

Last month, Burnham’s new Defence Secretary, Wes Streeting, who faced intense competition from a Muslim independent candidate in his northeast London constituency at the last general election, stated that Israel had fallen “short” of international standards.

US Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee told the BBC’s “Newsday” programme that there would “undoubtedly” be a US response.

Accusing the Labour Party of “discriminating against the Israeli government”, Huckabee said: “It is like throwing a rock and not knowing where it lands. The UK is a sovereign country and can do as it pleases, but so is the US.”

Republican Florida Congressman Randy Fine also warned that British firms would be barred from doing business with local governments in the state if sanctions were imposed.

In a post on X, Fine said: “Florida has made its stance clear. Any company—or country—that boycotts Israel will be boycotted by Florida.”

Labour MPs and Jewish groups have warned the government that any sanctions against the settlements could amount to a “de facto boycott” of Israeli goods and compromise the safety of British Jews.

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