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MIDDLE EAST

Who was Hassan Nasrallah?

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Hassan Nasrallah, a Shiite cleric and leader of Lebanon’s Hezbollah, was one of the most well-known and influential political-military figures in the Middle East region.

Hassan Nasrallah had not been seen in public for years due to the fear of being assassinated by Israel. On Saturday, the Israeli army announced that they had killed Nasrallah in an attack on Beirut, the capital of Lebanon.

The Hezbollah group did not comment on this for several hours; But after the morning of Saturday, they confirmed that he was killed. Nasrallah had close personal relations with Iran and had played a key role in transforming Hezbollah into a political and military force today.

He still had special respect among the supporters of the group. Under Nasrallah’s leadership, the Hezbollah group cooperated in training Hamas fighters as well as militias in Iraq and Yemen.

This group also facilitated the transfer of missiles and rockets from Iran to be used against Israel to the Hamas group.

Nasrallah transformed the Hezbollah group from a militia group to a military force

Nasrallah transformed the Hezbollah group from a militia group established to fight the Israeli forces in Lebanon, to a military force that is stronger than the Lebanese army and more powerful in the country’s politics.

Born in 1960, Hassan Nasrallah grew up in the Hammoud East Tower area in Beirut. His father Abdul Karim owned a small vegetable shop in this area. He was the eldest of nine children in this family. After the start of the Lebanese civil war in 1975, he joined the Amal movement, which was a Shiite militia group at the time.

After a short period in the Iraqi city of Najaf to study at a Shia seminary, he rejoined Amal in Lebanon; But he left this group in 1982, sometime after the Israeli invasion of Lebanon.

The Amal group, which was created by Moussa al-Sadr, had significant military support from the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps.

In 1985, Hezbollah officially announced its presence by publishing an “open letter”. In this letter, Hezbollah identified America and the Soviet Union as the main enemies of Islam and demanded the “destruction” of Israel.

With the expansion of the Hezbollah group in various positions, Hassan Nasrallah finally became the leader of Hezbollah in 1992 

With the expansion of the Hezbollah group in various positions, Hassan Nasrallah finally became the leader of Hezbollah in 1992 at the age of 32 after the assassination of Abbas al-Mousavi in an Israeli airstrike.

One of his first actions was to avenge Mousavi’s murder. Nasrallah ordered the launch of rocket attacks on northern Israel, which resulted in the death of a girl. An Israeli security officer at the Israeli embassy in Turkey was also killed by a car bomb explosion. As a result of another suicide attack on the Israeli embassy in Argentina, at least 29 people were killed.

Hassan Nasrallah also managed a battle with Israeli forces that ended with their withdrawal from southern Lebanon in 2000.

Hassan Nasrallah said that Hezbollah will not be disarmed and stressed: “All Lebanese lands must be recaptured.” In 2006, Hezbollah forces carried out a border attack in which eight Israeli soldiers were killed. Two other soldiers were taken hostage by Hezbollah forces. In response to this action by Hezbollah, Israeli warplanes bombarded Hezbollah positions in the south and southern suburbs of Beirut.

Hezbollah also fired about 4,000 rockets at Israel. In this conflict, more than 1,115 Lebanese citizens, most of whom were civilians, had lost their lives. Also, 119 Israeli soldiers and 45 civilians were killed.

Nasrallah’s house and offices were targeted by Israeli airstrikes several times. But he survived. In 2009, Hassan Nasrallah initiated a new political process that sought to highlight Hezbollah’s “political vision”.

Four years later, he announced that Hezbollah had entered a “whole new phase” by sending fighters to Syria to help its ally Iran.

However, Sunni Lebanese leaders have accused Hezbollah of dragging the country into the Syrian war, and sectarian tensions have worsened. On October 8, 2023, a day after Hamas attacked Israel, which led to the war in Gaza, previously sporadic clashes between Hezbollah and Israel escalated.

Amal movement described Hezbollah leader as “a unique and courageous figure”

In his last speech, Hassan Nasrallah accused Israel of blowing up thousands of pagers and radio devices used by members of the group under his command. These explosions killed 39 people and injured thousands more. The leader of Hezbollah warned that he will take revenge on Israel for these attacks.

However, sometime later, Israel greatly increased its attacks on Hezbollah and nearly 800 people were killed in Israeli airstrikes on Lebanon.

Finally, today, the Israeli army announced that it had killed Hassan Nasrallah in its new air attacks on Beirut — the attack against the Lebanese Hezbollah in the last few years of this country is considered unprecedented.

Lebanon’s Amal Movement, Hezbollah’s political ally in a statement described the Hezbollah leader as “a unique and courageous figure”. His death would not weaken the resolve of the resistance fighters, the statement said, referring to the death of Nasrullah.

MIDDLE EAST

Khamenei adviser visits Lebanon following U.S. ceasefire proposal

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Hours after the United States presented Lebanon with a ceasefire proposal between Hezbollah and Israel, Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s Senior Advisor and Special Envoy to Lebanon, Ali Larijani, held separate meetings with Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati and Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri.

Lebanese media reported that U.S. Ambassador in Beirut, Lisa Johnson, had delivered a draft ceasefire agreement between the Israeli army and Hezbollah to Speaker Nabih Berri.

Al-Jadeed TV quoted unnamed sources as stating that Ambassador Johnson, on behalf of U.S. Envoy Amos Hochstein, presented Speaker Berri with a proposed solution based on UN Security Council (UNSC) Resolution 1701. While Al-Jadeed did not provide details of the agreement, it noted that “Berri will respond to the proposal after consulting with Hezbollah.”

Shortly after the ceasefire proposal was delivered, Khamenei’s aide, Ali Larijani, arrived in Beirut.

According to a statement from the office of Prime Minister Mikati, Larijani and his delegation were received by Mikati. During the meeting, Mikati emphasized that “the stance of the Lebanese state must be supported in terms of implementing UNSC Resolution 1701, promoting national unity, and avoiding positions that could create sensitivities among the Lebanese or favor one side over the other.”

Larijani, in response, expressed that Iran recognizes that stopping the attacks, establishing a ceasefire, and implementing UNSC Resolution 1701 are the priorities of the Lebanese government. He assured that Iran supports any decision made by Lebanese authorities, including the election of a president agreed upon by the Lebanese.

A statement from Speaker Nabih Berri’s office indicated that their meeting included discussions on the general situation in the region, continued Israeli aggression against Lebanon, and refugee issues.

After the meeting, Larijani told the press that he had engaged in consultations with Lebanese officials to address the challenges arising from Israeli aggression.

When asked whether Iran aimed to disrupt the agreement following the U.S. proposal to Speaker Berri based on UNSC Resolution 1701 to ensure a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, Larijani stated: “We don’t want to break anything. We are looking for solutions. We support Lebanon in all circumstances. Those who are spoiling the situation are Netanyahu and his gang. Recognize your friends and enemies.”

Larijani reiterated that Iran would support any agreement endorsed by Lebanese authorities and Hezbollah, and that Supreme Leader Khamenei had conveyed this message to Speaker Berri.

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Trump’s return to power: Tehran is in the throes of fear and hope

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Undoubtedly, the news of Donald Trump’s victory as the 47th president-elect of the United States is without a doubt deafening for the Islamic Republic of Iran, because in the four years of his last-time as president in the White House, Tehran was in dire straits in every way.

Qassem Soleimani, Iranian major general and commander of the IRGC Quds Force, was assassinated by Trump’s order in Baghdad, the capital city of Iraq in January 2020. Trump was also ordered to put the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) of Iran on the blacklist of the US. In the same way, what the administrations of Barack Obama and Hassan Rouhani under the name of “JCPOA” were with great difficulty, carelessly cottoned them in the blink of an eye and even in the context did not respect the point of view of his country’s western allies (European Troika).

However, Trump did not stop there and tried to further isolate Iran by supporting Israel, Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Now that Trump has become the ruler again, it is obvious that what it has done against Tehran is circulating in the minds of Iranians again, and it evokes the fear that it may repeat the same path.

We don’t speak pessimistically. We discussed Trump’s possible confrontation with Iran that he may not act as he did in the past, but the point is how Iran will react or take action if Trump did not change.

Iran is ready to face Trump

It is important to know whether the Iranian side is ready to deal with Trump or not? If Iran is ready, to what extent? Of course, this is in the case that the American side gives a green light, otherwise, it is not possible. Since Tehran has received severe wounds by Trump, it is not unlikely that it will go to him with a green light. Anyway, the argument is aimed at proving the interaction-seeking tendency of Iran’s 14th government with Trump’s second government, which is explained below:

First:

It’s true that when Trump first entered the White House, no one knew him well. Maybe the Americans didn’t know it right either, because he suddenly entered the field of politics, he quickly won and achieved what he wanted. During his first election campaign and after winning, numerous articles and books were written about him, but when he went to the White House, he took actions that worried even the Western allies of his own country.

Qassem Soleimani, Iranian major general and commander of the IRGC Quds Force, was assassinated by Trump’s order in Iraq.

Therefore, from then on, his behavior is called unpredictable and what he says is mostly viewed with skepticism. Now, Trump’s four-year record is like a mirror before the eyes of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Of course, no country knows him better than Iran.

In the past, Tehran bowed its back under the pressure of Trump because it did not know him well and was always faced with actions which were already executed by the then Trump administration. Now that Tehran knows Trump, it is trying to reduce its level of effectiveness of what he is doing. Maybe this recognition will encourage the parties to agree to a new deal.

Second:

The fact is that Iran is in a situation where it cannot deal with Trump’s adventure. The inflammatory situation of the region is not to his benefit but to his detriment. It is true that Trump is a deal maker, but he is not a joker. The so-called “axis of resistance” in the Middle East has lost its former hegemony.

For example, Hamas, which was a strong bulwark against Israel, has been weakened and its future is unclear. Although Hezbollah has not been weakened to that extent, it is in unprecedented trouble, and it is not clear to what extent the implementation of UN Security Council Resolution 1701 will limit its “scope of action”.

Israel is also standing by the sword and if there is no apparent pressure from the White House, it will not hesitate to enter into a “decisive war” with Tehran. Considering the above cases, the Iranian side, understanding its prohibitions and the knowledge it has gained from Trump, is not disinterested in tuning the instrument of reconciliation with the USA.

Third:

If we pay attention to Trump’s election and non-election speeches, we can call him a “peace seeker”. Of course, his pacifism comes from his economic concern.” When he says he will end wars in the world, he means that his country’s economy will not suffer. In his election campaigns, he constantly emphasized the economy and used it as a tool to pressure his rival.

Even when he brings up the story of immigrants, his intention is that their presence harms the US economy. If Trump is serious in his pacifism, he can end the war in Gaza and Lebanon – something that will make the Iranian side inclined towards the USA.

Iran’s Vice President Mohammad Reza Aref during his visit to Saudi Arabia, said that the world is waiting for Trump’s slogans to end wars. This statement by Aref contradicts what Trump did against Iran in the last four years of his tenure, but still Iran hopes Trump delivers on his promises.

Trump got angry with Iran to such an extent that many thought that he was a warmonger, contrary to her slogans. Trump is not belligerent, but the pressure he puts on his rival is not less than the negative consequences of entering into a war. Maybe this time he wants to resolve the previous contradiction.

Only those in Iran, some of the US’s strong competitors in other parts of the world, see Trump’s return as an opportunity rather than a threat, for which Russia is a clear example. In Moscow’s view, Trump is a pacifist Republican who wants peace, and therefore, Moscow seeks to use his presence in the White House.

Meanwhile, Ukraine has fought stubbornly against Moscow with Washington’s money for the past three years and has killed thousands of Russian soldiers with American weapons. When the rulers of the Kremlin look at Trump as an opportunity with this situation, why should the Iranian side deny the necessity of dialogue with him.

Fourth:

Now that a reformist government is at work in Iran, it can be said that the prospects for the relationship between Tehran and Washington under Trump rule will not be as dark as in the past.

Apart from the fact that the reformists are interested in dialogue with the Westerners, especially the US, Masoud Pezeshkian, the president of Iran, cares more than any reformist to move on a calm and safe path in foreign policy.

He did not have a clear slogan in his election campaigns, except for the lifting of sanctions – something that will not be possible without coming to terms with America. But the dark side of the current reality is that Pezeshkian inherited the state of war with Israel, which definitely impacted any kind of talks with the US in regards to bilateral issues. But apparently, he will not allow his government to become a victim of a war.

Of course, there are those in Iran who take Trump’s return as a good omen – they think that while the narrow path of negotiation with the US will be blinded, the 14th government will not be able to fulfill what it has promised. Radical fundamentalists think this way, and Pezeshkian and top officials around him understand their intentions well.

Therefore, Pezeshkian and his close officials are vigilantly monitoring the situation and will respond to even a weak voice from the US that indicates negotiations. Pezeshkian’s 100 days of risky government has become the headline of Iranian media these days and a warm discussion is going on between supporters and opponents.

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MIDDLE EAST

Katz’s statement on Hezbollah disarmament surprises even Halevi

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Israel’s new Defense Minister, Israel Katz, appointed by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to replace the recently dismissed Yoav Gallant, has sparked surprise with a bold declaration regarding Israel’s stance on Hezbollah. Katz stated that one of Israel’s primary goals is to disarm Hezbollah, leaving Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi notably surprised.

As Israel advances into southern Lebanon, negotiations continue in Washington and Beirut over a possible resolution to the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hezbollah. However, Katz emphasized that Israel would not halt its efforts until all military objectives are achieved.

“We will not cease fire, we will not ease pressure, and we will not support any agreement that does not fully achieve the goals of this war,” Katz declared during a visit to the Northern Command alongside Lieutenant General Herzi Halevi.

Katz outlined these objectives as: “disarming Hezbollah, pushing them beyond the Litani River, and ensuring the safe return of Israelis in northern areas to their homes.”

In the accompanying video, Halevi appeared visibly taken aback by Katz’s mention of disarming Hezbollah as an official objective, as this has not been publicly stated as a government directive.

Katz further stressed Israel’s right to “implement any agreement independently and to act decisively against any terrorist activity or organization.” He added, “We must continue to strike Hezbollah with full force.”

6 Israeli soldiers killed

Meanwhile, as Israel presses forward with its ground invasion of southern Lebanon, six more Israeli soldiers were killed in a clash with Hezbollah forces. This incident, one of the heaviest single-day casualties for Israel since the invasion’s onset, highlights the intensifying nature of the conflict.

According to a statement by the Israeli army, the soldiers, all from the 51st Battalion of the Golani Brigade, were killed in fire exchange with at least four Hezbollah fighters inside a building in a southern Lebanese village.

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