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Daesh threat in Afghanistan is “solemn”

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Taliban authorities have said they have sent letter to the groups of police chiefs across 34 provinces in Afghanistan and warned about “suicide attacks” by the Islamic State (IS), also known as Daesh terrorist group.

The letter and the recent Daesh deadly bombing that targeted top Taliban officials in Badakhshan province, has spotlighted security lapses in the Taliban administration and the Daesh’s capacity to launch high-impact attacks across Afghanistan.

The Taliban’s ministry of interior said that Daesh will carry out attacks against governors, police chiefs and other civilian population like tribal elders, who support the current Afghan government under the Taliban leadership.

A Taliban interior ministry spokesman has confirmed that they have sent letters to the police stations in all provinces, but he restrained to provide more details.

In the letter, the ministry has cautioned Taliban officials and said that Daesh wants to conduct suicide bombing and hand grenade attacks to target governors and police chiefs. The letter also said that Daesh will not even stop throwing hand grenades to the residences of the officials as well as in their offices.

Daesh members came from abroad

This comes when the interior ministry had recently also warned that a group of people wants to enter Afghanistan from Pakistan and called them members and supporters of Daesh. However, no more information was given, but this came when Pakistan forcefully departed a large number of Afghans last week and many of them entered Afghanistan after 10 and 15 years.

“We doubt that some people among the refugees are members of Daesh, and we are careful about this,” said an official.

The Daesh threat in Afghanistan is now becoming more immense, the official told Harici on condition of anonymity. He furthered that Daesh is a foreign project, and accused the western countries for supporting this outfit. “Daesh was not in Afghanistan, but after 2014, they started appearing. At that time when the Taliban were struggling and engaged in the fight against foreign invaders, we saw Daesh as foreign project and fought against them in several provinces as well,” he added.

In the past, Taliban had downplayed the threat from Daesh, but now considers it a major menace than any other armed opposition groups in Afghanistan. Daesh has proved capable of killing more Taliban officials last year and also this year 2023.

Daesh is carrying more attacks

Recently, the Daesh group claimed responsibility for killing the Badakhshan governor, and this is yet another top level target after the Daesh killed the governor for Balkh province inside his office.

A Taliban official in the interior ministry said that the intelligence department has been in alert mode after recently Daesh claimed responsibility for a suicide bombing on a memorial service in Badakhshan that killed at least 13 people and wounded 30 others.

But he refuted the Daesh claim that at least 20 senior Taliban officials died and 50 others were injured in the bombing. But the spokesman confirmed that the Taliban security leadership is worried about an increase in Daesh attacks.

Meanwhile, a report suggests that a number of Afghan refugees who departed from Pakistan were members of Daesh. “Among the returnees from Pakistan in the last two weeks, there are some people who reportedly have connections with Daesh. The intelligence report says there are over 40 Daesh members,” said an official. “We are working to recognize these people, and detain them,” he said.

Daesh first appeared in 2014 in Afghanistan

Daesh for the first time emerged in Afghanistan was in 2014, where the then Afghan government and foreign troops downplayed their presence. However, after some months, Daesh carried out several deadly attacks across Afghanistan in general, but in Kabul, the capital city in particular.

“Daesh were hell-bent on killing Shite minority, and had targeted several places and institutions belonging to that sect, but this is no any longer the target,” a political expert Ahmad Jawad told Harici.

Jawad said that Daesh is now targeting everyone, including top Taliban leaders among them governors, police chiefs, and religious figures.

Yet again, Daesh carried out suicide bombing and killed the acting governor of Badakhshan, he said, adding that Taliban leadership should have take serious action to prevent Daesh attacks in the future.

Narrative that Daesh is a small group is unrealistic

Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid had earlier said that there is no place for Daesh in Afghanistan and they are committed to fight them till the end.

He also said that Daesh is no longer a threat, but it seems is no longer the case as Daesh is now able to carry more attacks.

The narrative that Daesh is a small group and has been dismantled is not realistic, said a political pundit.

“Daesh were only in Kabul and Nangarhar province in the past, but since Taliban takeover, Daesh is in Kabul, Balkh, Kunduz, Nangarhar, Badakhshan and other provinces,” the expert told Harici on condition of anonymity.

He called on the Taliban to take Daesh as a serious threat, and carry out a comprehensive operation to eliminate them before they carry other attacks and take more lives.

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Afraid of the gun; Taliban supreme leader fears of a coup

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Hibatullah Akhundzada, the supreme leader of the Taliban, has ordered the security institutions that without his permission, “no one can distribute or use the military equipment registered by the ministries of defense and interior, the directorate of intelligence and other independent institutions.”

Experts and analysts have considered this move by Hibatullah as last resort to weaken the position of defense minister, Yaqoob Mujahid, interior minister, Sirajuddin Haqqani and the head of Taliban intelligence, Abdul Haq Wasiq in order to prevent a possible internal coup that was initiated by these three top officials.

In the first article of the order, it is mentioned that no person can distribute military equipment registered in the reserves of the ministries of defense, interior and intelligence, or issue an order to distribute it without the order of Hibatullah.

This decree titled “Regarding the distribution, protection and supervision of registered military equipment”, specifies that whenever an Emirate entity (Taliban-related entity) needs weapons, ammunition, night vision cameras, telecommunications and other military equipment” must receive the approval order from the leader of the Taliban.

Also, in the second article of this decree, it is stated that whenever one of the military departments of the Taliban needs military equipment, it must send its request to Hibatullah’s office in Kandahar.

In the third article of the decree, it is emphasized that if the military equipment was distributed or used without the permission of the Taliban leader before the issuance of this decree, they must be returned to the reserves.

Ministries of defense, interior and head of intelligence department are banned from disturbing military weapons.

According to this article, Hibatullah entrusted the ministries of defense and interior, as well as the general directorate of Taliban intelligence, with the responsibility to report the list of available military equipment to the directorate of registration, and protection of military equipment.

This order of the Taliban leader has been considered as another step in the direction of concentrating more power in the hands of Mullah Hibatullah in Kandahar. Many have seen it as a sign of Hibatullah’s increasing distrust of senior Taliban officials in Kabul. Previously, some senior Taliban officials, including Sirajuddin Haqqani, have openly disobeyed Hibatullah’s order to prohibit photography and filming and have not followed the order of their supreme leader.

(R) Defense Minister Mullah Yaqoob Mujahid and (L) Interior Minister Sirajuddin Haqqani.

Previously, several reports have been published about the sale of military equipment left over from the US troops and Afghan security forces during the republic government. Even the US-elected president Donald Trump, repeatedly mentioned this issue during his election campaigns. Not long ago, the government of Pakistan also announced that the Pakistan security forces have discovered and confiscated a car carrying US weapons smuggled from Afghanistan.

Pakistani media reported that this equipment included M4 assault rifles, night vision cameras and thousands of rounds of ammunition, which were transported in a truck carrying vegetables. Pakistani security officials have estimated the total value of weapons smuggled from Afghanistan in this truck to be 126,354 US dollars.

The cost of US’s remaining equipment in Afghanistan estimated over 7 billion US dollars

The Pentagon has already announced that after the withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan, about 7 billion dollars of military equipment fell into the hands of the Taliban. This equipment reached the hands of the Taliban after the fall of Afghanistan on 15 August, 2021.

It has been reported that when the US forces left Afghanistan, there were 78 US-made aircrafts in the country, whose value reached 1 billion dollars. According to CNN, with the end of the US military presence, a total of more than 9,000 air-to-ground munitions worth more than six and a half million dollars have remained in Afghanistan.

The report also states that out of a total of 96,000 military vehicles, more than 40,000 units, including 12,000 Humvees (armored tanks), fell into the hands of the Taliban. Moreover, out of a total of more than 400,000 weapons that the US gave to the forces of the former Afghan government, about 300,000 remain in the country.

Almost all “communications equipment, including mobile base stations, portable and hand-held commercial and military radio systems, and associated transmitters and encryption devices, all remain in Afghanistan,” according to the report.

The report added that “almost all” of the equipment for night vision cameras, surveillance, biometric and positioning equipment,” a total of nearly 42 thousand pieces of specialized equipment, remained in Afghanistan.

Meanwhile, Five Mi 17 helicopters of the then Afghan army, which were transferred to Ukraine for repair before the collapse of the government, have also returned to Afghanistan and now are used by the Taliban.

It should be noted that the internal rivalries in the Taliban, especially among the different factions of this group, is one of the important reasons for Mullah Hibatullah’s distrust of some Taliban officials. Some officials, including interior minister Sirajuddin Haqqani and defense minister Mohammad Yaqub Mujahid, gained a lot of power, especially during the Taliban’s war against foreign forces, and Mullah Hibatullah may be worried that these officials are trying to expand their power, which is a clear threat to his position as the Taliban leader.

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China’s BYD prepares to launch latest SUV, the Sealion 07, in Europe despite EU tariffs

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BYD, the world’s largest electric vehicle (EV) maker, is set to launch its latest SUV, the Sealion 07, in Europe, undeterred by recent tariff increases on Chinese-made electric vehicles. This strategic move highlights BYD’s commitment to expanding overseas sales despite economic barriers.

Deliveries of the Sealion 07 are scheduled to begin in 2025, marking BYD’s seventh all-electric model in the European market, the company announced on Wednesday. Additionally, BYD plans to enter the South Korean market next year, adding to its existing presence in 95 countries worldwide.

This European expansion comes on the heels of the European Union’s decision last month to impose new tariffs—ranging from 17% to 35.3%—on Chinese electric vehicles following an anti-subsidy investigation. BYD’s EVs are subject to a 17% tariff, in addition to the standard 10% tariff applied to all pure electric cars imported from China. These tariffs, which took effect last month, will remain in place for five years. Meanwhile, U.S. tariffs on Chinese-made EVs increased from 25% to 100% as of September, citing similar concerns.

Despite the added costs, BYD’s vehicles continue to hold strong appeal in export markets. “BYD’s vehicles remain attractive even after the additional tariffs, so it’s not really a big problem for the company,” said Chen Jinzhu, CEO of Shanghai Mingliang Auto Service, a leading industry consultancy. “The Sealion 07 exemplifies how BYD’s cost advantage enables it to counteract such trade barriers in key export markets.”

Shenzhen-based BYD has yet to disclose the European pricing for the Sealion 07. On the mainland, the SUV—featuring a range of 450 kilometers—starts at 189,800 yuan (approximately US$26,272), with deliveries beginning in May.

According to a report last year from UBS analysts, BYD has a sustainable cost advantage of 25% over traditional European brands.

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Singles’ day promotions target overseas Chinese as China’s domestic demand slows

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After last year’s Singles’ Day shopping festival in China was dubbed the “quietest in history,” China’s e-commerce platforms focused on a new strategy this year.

For this year’s Singles’ Day event, major e-commerce companies such as Alibaba, JD.com, and Pinduoduo invested heavily in expanding overseas markets, targeting the estimated 100 million Chinese living abroad with offers like discounts and free or low-cost shipping.

The central question, however, is not whether these efforts will succeed in the short term, but rather if this shift can help platforms grow their user bases as online sales growth in China reaches a bottleneck.

“Domestic consumption is quite weak right now, and every company is certainly considering new ways to drive growth for Singles’ Day,” said an executive at a leading online retailer, who requested anonymity. “The overseas market is widely seen as a promising source for additional growth,” he added in an interview with Nikkei Asia.

Singles’ Day, a one-day sales event launched by Alibaba in 2009 as a celebration for singles, has since evolved into a month-long campaign with special offers and deep discounts, culminating on or around November 11.

This year, China aimed to revitalize its retail sector with the event. Total consumer goods sales rose by 3.3% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2024, though high-end consumer spending remained stagnant. Cosmetics sales fell by 1%, while gold and silver jewelry sales declined by 3.1% year-on-year.

Last month, Alibaba’s Taobao launched a significant marketing campaign in Hong Kong and Taiwan, flooding subway stations with advertisements for “free shipping on orders over 99 yuan,” among other offers. According to the company, the campaign cost 2 billion New Taiwan dollars ($61.7 million) in Taiwan and 1 billion yuan ($138 million) in Hong Kong.

Following Alibaba’s move, JD.com announced it had invested 1.5 billion yuan to offer discounted product prices and cheaper shipping to Hong Kong shoppers. Bargain platform Pinduoduo took it a step further, offering free shipping via courier SF Express for Hong Kong shoppers, regardless of the item’s price. All products on these platforms are shipped from mainland China.

A spokesperson from Alibaba’s International Digital Commerce Group noted that since the overseas initiative launched in October, Taobao Hong Kong has achieved double-digit growth in both orders and gross merchandise value (GMV)—a metric that excludes canceled orders—on both a monthly and year-on-year basis.

The platforms are also targeting Chinese shoppers in Malaysia, Thailand, and Singapore.

This year, unlike in previous years, shoppers could combine online discounts with a subsidy program introduced by the Chinese government to boost domestic consumption, primarily for home appliances and household products. Analysts suggest these incentives will likely boost sales for JD.com, which is known for selling high-quality large appliances and offering after-sales services.

While JD.com has yet to release sales or GMV figures for home appliances during the shopping festival, it is expected to share its June-September results, along with Alibaba, later this week.

Last year, data provider Syntun estimated that total GMV on major e-commerce platforms grew by only 2.1% to 1.14 trillion yuan, falling short of the 2.9% growth forecast for 2022. Similarly, consultancy Bain predicted that Singles’ Day sales would reach 1.15 trillion yuan in 2023.

On Tuesday morning, Alibaba announced “strong GMV growth” and a “record number” of active shoppers for this year’s Singles’ Day event.

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