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Israel redraws lines of influence in southern Syria amid Suweida clashes

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In the southern Syrian city of Suweida, local groups have re-entered the conflict and regained control of most of the city following massacres, looting, and destruction by forces affiliated with the Ministries of Defense and Interior, who had entered the city after Druze sheikhs accepted a ceasefire.

Israel responded with airstrikes to an attack launched with heavy weapons by forces affiliated with the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) administration, forcing them to withdraw.

Massacres and looting by HTS forces

After the Druze sheikhs agreed to halt the fighting, HTS-affiliated forces entered Suweida and, within hours, engaged in massacres, looting, destruction, and insults.

These forces documented their actions and published them on social media, causing tensions to rise again in the city and prompting local groups to return to the battlefield.

In response to these developments, the Ministry of Defense sent reinforcements, including tanks and heavy armored vehicles, and targeted some neighborhoods with mortars and drones.

However, Israel declared the presence of heavy weapons in southern Syria “unacceptable” and launched airstrikes. These attacks forced the units affiliated with the Ministry of Defense to retreat.

Following this, the HTS administration announced in two separate statements, issued through the Ministries of Defense and Interior, that Public Security and Military Police forces would be dispatched to the region to combat local groups, which it described as “outlaw groups.”

Civilians executed in public squares

During the clashes, it was reported that more than 20 civilians were summarily executed. Some of these executions took place during a raid on the Al-Ridwan guest house, while others were carried out in public squares.

Three brothers were reportedly killed in a public square in front of their mother. Sheikh Hikmat al-Hijri, the leader of the opposition movement against the new Syrian administration, stated that he had been forced to make the previous ceasefire announcement under pressure and called on the people of Suweida to continue the fight.

With Israeli airstrikes removing heavy weapons from the equation, the conflict turned into street fighting, where local groups secured control over most of the city.

Video recordings released by HTS-affiliated elements documented attacks on the elderly and field executions. The fact that a member of the Military Police unit, which the Ministry of Defense announced was deployed to “prevent looting and violations,” was seen continuing his duties despite being previously filmed assaulting a citizen, raised serious questions about the new administration’s ability to control the situation and prevent crimes.

The head of the administration, Ahmed al-Sharaa, had previously declared that anyone who commits a violation, regardless of their rank, would be punished.

Israel’s intervention and secret diplomacy

The attack by HTS-affiliated forces began with a call for “mobilization,” reminiscent of the massacres in which hundreds were killed on the Syrian coast under the pretext of “fighting the remnants of the old regime.”

This time, the pretext of “fighting outlaw groups” paved the way for sectarian anger against the Druze. This manifested in widespread looting, arson, and destruction that targeted numerous guest houses, homes, and shops, as well as the Mar Mikhail Church in the town of al-Sura al-Kabira.

Israel’s intervention, under the pretext of “protecting the Druze,” resulted in the deaths of dozens of HTS-affiliated militiamen who found themselves in the line of fire. This intervention occurred despite previously leaked information indicating that Israel had agreed to allow government forces to enter Suweida.

It was alleged that this approval was given during a meeting between Ahmed al-Sharaa and the US Special Representative for Syria, Thomas Barrack, and during a meeting in Baku between a Syrian delegation, which included Suweida and Daraa’s Head of Internal Security Ahmed al-Dalati, and an Israeli delegation during al-Sharaa’s visit to Azerbaijan a few days earlier.

‘We will not allow a new Lebanon,’ says Netanyahu

Although statements from the US and Israel indicate some disagreements, developments on the ground reveal direct coordination between Washington and Tel Aviv.

While Barrack stated that Washington opposes the establishment of religious federal structures in Syria and supported HTS’s military operation in Suweida, Israel conducted airstrikes to thwart this operation.

In his statements to the Israeli media, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu emphasized that the goal of the intervention was to create a demilitarized zone in southern Syria.

“We will not allow a return to a situation where a new Lebanon emerges in southern Syria,” Netanyahu said, directly refuting the claim of protecting the Druze.

Divided Druze leadership and an uncertain future

While local groups led by the Suweida Military Council, directly affiliated with Sheikh al-Hijri, control most of the city, mediation efforts are ongoing.

However, the movement of HTS-affiliated units suggests preparations for a new attack, with the ground being prepared by mortar and rocket strikes.

Israel’s Channel 12 television reported that Washington had asked Tel Aviv to stop its attacks in southern Syria and that Israel had promised to comply with this request.

This situation is interpreted as an agreed-upon “hit-and-run game” that could prolong the bloodshed between the parties. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights stated that of the nearly 200 people killed in the clashes, 21 were civilians who were executed on the ground.

Meanwhile, a division has emerged among the Druze sheikhs regarding a mechanism to stop the attack. While Sheikh al-Hijri insists on continuing the fight after the crimes committed, Sheikhs Hamoud al-Hanawi and Yusuf Jarbo are trying to reach an agreement that would allow forces affiliated with the new administration to enter the region with serious guarantees to prevent violations.

Speaking to Syria’s official news agency, SANA, Sheikh Jarbo said, “Our hope today is for the option of a state that protects all its citizens from any kind of attack and violation.”

Although Suweida appears to be resisting the new administration with the fighting will displayed by local militias, the final outcome of the situation remains dependent on the stance of the US and Israel and the power struggle between them.

This uncertainty could open the door for the return of HTS-affiliated units, including groups motivated by sectarianism, to Suweida.

Middle East

US waives human rights terms on $320m military aid to Egypt

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The US State Department stated that it has waived human rights conditions on more than $300 million in military aid to Egypt.

The statement emphasised that this decision was taken in consideration of Cairo’s “helpful role” since the outbreak of the war against Iran.

Egypt began receiving substantial support from the US after signing a peace treaty with Israel in 1979.

Since the late 1980s, the country has received approximately $1.3 billion annually in US military assistance.

A portion of this aid is subject to conditions related to human rights and democracy, which can be waived on national security grounds.

Withholding funds, including during the administration of former US President Joe Biden, has caused tension between Cairo and Washington in the past.

A letter dated 21 September and addressed to various congressional committees, obtained by Reuters, stated that Secretary of State Marco Rubio “decided to waive the certification requirement under the fiscal year 2025 Foreign Military Financing programme for Egypt of $320 million.”

This waiver was subsequently confirmed by the State Department.

An accompanying memorandum justifying the decision stated that this portion of military aid was “essential for counterterrorism, border security, or non-proliferation programmes, or otherwise important to the national security interests of the United States.”

The memorandum, dated 4 September and bearing Rubio’s signature, stated: “Exercising this waiver authority is critical to the US-Egypt relationship and to US national security priorities, particularly given the helpful role Egypt has played in the aftermath of Operation Epic Fury.”

“Operation Epic Fury” is the designation used by the US military for the campaign launched jointly with Israel against Iran in late February.

The State Department memorandum, whose authenticity was confirmed by two sources in Washington familiar with the letter, did not provide detailed information regarding what was termed Egypt’s “helpful role”.

The State Department’s annual decision on military aid to Egypt typically covers funds allocated for the preceding fiscal year, which ends on 30 September.

A State Department spokesperson stated that Rubio waived the certification in the interest of US national security and that the US continues to cooperate with the Egyptian government across a range of issues.

In an emailed statement, the spokesperson said: “This waiver recognizes the importance of maintaining security cooperation with Egypt at a time of significant security challenges in the region.”

The Egyptian Ministry of Foreign Affairs did not immediately comment on the matter.

The spillover effects of the Iran war have imposed a heavy toll on US security partners, including Egypt.

Owing to rising fuel prices and other disruptions, the Egyptian economy is passing through a difficult period.

Under the Biden administration, the US withheld portions of the annual military allocation on multiple occasions over Egypt’s human rights record.

In 2024, following the Hamas-led 7 October attack on Israel and the subsequent war in Gaza, the Biden administration set aside human rights conditions, disbursing the entire $1.3 billion allocation to Egypt for the first time in its tenure.

Human rights organisations have long accused Egypt, under the administration of President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, of widespread human rights abuses, including torture and enforced disappearances.

This week, Egyptian police detained six journalists from a fact-checking and investigative media outlet, accusing them of spreading false information on behalf of the banned Muslim Brotherhood.

Egyptian authorities state that they have taken steps to address human rights issues. Sisi said stability is paramount and that the government supports human rights by working to provide for basic needs.

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Britain expands curbs on arms exports to Israel over Gaza risks

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Britain has significantly broadened its military export restrictions targeting Israel, suspending or rejecting more than 80 licences for items the IDF could use in Gaza.

This figure is nearly triple the number affected when the policy was first introduced in September 2024.

United Kingdom Minister of State for the Middle East Stephen Doughty said that as part of what he described as a “tighter system” for assessing exports to Israel, more than 50 further export applications have been refused since approximately 30 licences were initially suspended.

Under the initial decision taken in September 2024, 30 of roughly 350 licences were suspended after the British government concluded there was a “clear risk” that certain military exports could be used to commit or facilitate serious violations of international humanitarian law in Gaza.

The affected equipment included components for military aircraft, drones, naval systems, and targeting gear.

Doughty said additional measures adopted this month established what he termed a “double safeguard” mechanism within the approvals process.

Export applications must now be assessed both against existing international humanitarian law criteria and in light of Britain’s position on the legality of Israel’s presence in the Palestinian territories.

“We have so far suspended or refused more than 80 licences,” Doughty said, adding that he had personally examined each licence.

Despite the wider restrictions, British-origin parts entering the international F-35 fighter jet supply chain continue to be largely exempt.

The UK government argues that preventing British-made components from entering the global F-35 pool could undermine the programme as a whole and have serious consequences for the security of the UK and its allies.

Direct exports of F-35 parts intended specifically for Israel remain suspended.

Doughty defended maintaining the supply of components via the international programme, arguing that halting it could have severe ramifications for the broader European and allied security architecture.

Foreign Affairs Committee Chair Emily Thornberry challenged this position, arguing that the issue was political rather than purely legal.

Thornberry suggested adopting an approach similar to the Dutch model, under which components entering the international supply chain could be flagged as “not intended for aircraft bound for Israel”.

The initial suspension was implemented in September 2024 by then Foreign Secretary David Lammy.

Lammy stressed at the time that the measure did not constitute an arms embargo and applied solely to items assessed as usable in military operations in Gaza.

Since then, the policy has been tightened further under Prime Minister Andy Burnham.

The expanded export restrictions follow the Burnham government’s adoption of a more confrontational policy toward the Israeli government.

Foreign Secretary Ed Miliband drew sustained applause at the Labour Party’s annual conference in Liverpool after delivering a sharp critique of the Netanyahu government’s policies and defending the decision to ban trade with Israeli settlements in the West Bank.

Accusing Israel of committing war crimes in Gaza, Miliband stated that the British government heard public outrage over the conflict, telling delegates: “We hear you. You were right.”

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Middle East

Netanyahu holds secret UAE talks with Saudi Arabia and Arab officials

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Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met with representatives of Gulf and Arab nations that lack diplomatic ties with Israel, including Saudi Arabia, during his weekend visit to the United Arab Emirates.

Sources close to the gathering told the Israeli newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth on Monday that representatives from Morocco, Libya, Jordan, and Qatar also took part in the meeting.

Netanyahu made a unannounced visit to Abu Dhabi on Sunday, where he met with the country’s leader, Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan.

According to Israeli media, this marked the first time the United Arab Emirates officially confirmed a visit by Netanyahu.

The meeting was arranged by Mossad Director Roman Goffman “at the request of Saudi Arabia, which asked for Israel’s assistance against Houthi attacks in the Red Sea region,” according to Yedioth Ahronoth.

The discussions addressed Iran and the Houthi militia. The newspaper added that the Arab states heard from Israel that “Israel is prepared to assist countries in the region with air defence systems, just as it aided the UAE during the conflict with Iran.”

Conflict in Yemen intensified in September when Ansarullah militiamen launched a rapid offensive that seized Yemen’s entire Red Sea coastline, including the vital maritime corridor of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.

The Yemeni resistance also imposed a blockade on Saudi Arabia’s energy exports and staged multiple attacks against the kingdom.

Saudi Arabia reportedly sought military assistance from the US to counter Ansarullah.

Washington declined to attack the Houthis directly, but announced that it would provide intelligence and targeting support.

Reporting on the same visit, The Jerusalem Post said Netanyahu spent six hours in the UAE and that the principal subject of his discussions with MBZ was Iran.

Citing sources familiar with the matter, the newspaper added that the trip came “after Netanyahu exerted heavy pressure on the United Arab Emirates to arrange a meeting ahead of the Israeli elections on 27 October.”

Separately, the Associated Press, citing a person with direct knowledge of the meeting, reported that Netanyahu’s visit to the UAE was arranged in part to ask MBZ to deny reports that he had warned the Israeli prime minister of an impending Hamas threat prior to 7 October 2023.

According to Israeli media, Netanyahu’s office denied the AP report, issuing the following statement:

“Fake news. The visit focused solely on strengthening ties between the two countries and on regional issues.”

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