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Iran declares victory over US and Israel after 40 days of conflict

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Iran has declared a “historic and crushing defeat” of the United States and Israel following 40 days of armed conflict. The administration in Tehran announced that Washington was compelled to accept a 10-point Iranian proposal encompassing critical demands, including a permanent ceasefire, the lifting of all sanctions, and the withdrawal of US combat forces from the region.

In a statement addressed to the “noble, great, and heroic nation of Iran,” the Supreme National Security Council emphasized that the enemy had suffered an undeniable rout. The council stated that the opposing side now “sees no path forward other than to submit to the will of the great Iranian nation and the honorable Axis of Resistance.” The declaration of victory arrives on the 40th day of a war that commenced on February 28 following the assassinations of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei and high-ranking military commanders.

The 10-point list of commitments accepted by Washington

According to the official statement, the US has agreed to a 10-point proposal that binds Washington to substantial obligations:

  • The cessation of all new attacks against Iran,
  • The continuation of Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz,
  • The recognition of Iran’s uranium enrichment activities,
  • The lifting of all primary sanctions,
  • The lifting of all secondary sanctions,
  • The termination of all UN Security Council resolutions,
  • The termination of all resolutions by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Board of Governors,
  • The payment of war reparations to Iran,
  • The withdrawal of US combat forces from the region,
  • The cessation of war on all fronts, including those conducted against the “Islamic Resistance” in Lebanon.

The statement noted that Iran secured a major victory, forcing “criminal America” to accept a proposal containing Tehran’s specific terms.

“One of the heaviest combined wars in history”

Iran’s highest security body characterized the past 40 days as “one of the heaviest combined wars in history.” According to the council, Iran and its allies in Lebanon, Iraq, Yemen, and “occupied Palestine” delivered blows that “will not be erased from the world’s historical memory.” The text asserted that “Iran and the Resistance have almost completely destroyed the American war machine in the region,” noting that the extensive infrastructure and capabilities deployed by the enemy over many years sustained deep damage.

The statement further claimed that the US realized it could not win this struggle only 10 days after the war began. It alleged that the enemy failed to achieve any of its primary objectives and, by the 10th day, recognized its inability to prevail, subsequently attempting to establish contact with Iran through various channels to seek a ceasefire.

The council also noted that the enemy side initially envisioned a rapid military victory, believing Iran’s missile and drone capabilities would be “quickly extinguished.” It claimed “global Zionism” convinced the “ignorant president of the US” that this war would end Iran. While victory was declared, the council called for caution, emphasizing the need for official resilience, foresight, and the preservation of national unity until the details of the victory are finalized.

Trump’s two-week suspension contingent on Hormuz condition

Iran’s announcement followed hours after US President Donald Trump announced he had agreed to halt bombings and attacks for two weeks, contingent upon Tehran reopening the Strait of Hormuz. In a post on the Truth Social platform, Trump stated he would “suspend” attacks for a “two-week period,” describing the move as a “two-way CEASEFIRE.”

Trump said the suspension was based on the condition that “the Islamic Republic of Iran accepts the FULL, IMMEDIATE, and SAFE opening of the Strait of Hormuz.” Earlier on Tuesday, Trump had warned that “an entire civilization will die tonight” if Iran did not meet demands, a statement that drew global condemnation. Pope Leo XIV called the threat “unacceptable,” while some US lawmakers described the rhetoric as “evil” and called for the invocation of the 25th Amendment to remove Trump from office.

The Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately one-fifth of the world’s oil supply passes, has been effectively closed since February 28. Iranian officials had explicitly stated the strait would not be opened unless all demands, including a permanent end to US-Israeli attacks, were met.

Political negotiation process begins in Islamabad

Under the direction of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Seyyed Mojtaba Khamenei and with the approval of the Supreme National Security Council, it was decided that negotiations to finalize details will take place in Islamabad, the capital of Pakistan. This process, aimed at consolidating battlefield superiority with political gains, is expected to occur within 15 days.

The Islamabad negotiations, scheduled to begin Friday, are slated to last two weeks, though the duration may be extended by mutual agreement. The security body stated that maintaining national unity is vital during this critical period. Describing the negotiations as a “national negotiation” and an “extension of the battlefield,” the statement called for support from all political factions.

The statement concluded: “If the enemy’s surrender on the battlefield is transformed into a decisive political gain in negotiations, we will celebrate this great historical victory together. Otherwise, we will fight shoulder to shoulder on the battlefield until all demands of the Iranian people are met. Our hands are on the triggers, and even the smallest mistake by the enemy will be met with full force.”

Middle East

US waives human rights terms on $320m military aid to Egypt

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The US State Department stated that it has waived human rights conditions on more than $300 million in military aid to Egypt.

The statement emphasised that this decision was taken in consideration of Cairo’s “helpful role” since the outbreak of the war against Iran.

Egypt began receiving substantial support from the US after signing a peace treaty with Israel in 1979.

Since the late 1980s, the country has received approximately $1.3 billion annually in US military assistance.

A portion of this aid is subject to conditions related to human rights and democracy, which can be waived on national security grounds.

Withholding funds, including during the administration of former US President Joe Biden, has caused tension between Cairo and Washington in the past.

A letter dated 21 September and addressed to various congressional committees, obtained by Reuters, stated that Secretary of State Marco Rubio “decided to waive the certification requirement under the fiscal year 2025 Foreign Military Financing programme for Egypt of $320 million.”

This waiver was subsequently confirmed by the State Department.

An accompanying memorandum justifying the decision stated that this portion of military aid was “essential for counterterrorism, border security, or non-proliferation programmes, or otherwise important to the national security interests of the United States.”

The memorandum, dated 4 September and bearing Rubio’s signature, stated: “Exercising this waiver authority is critical to the US-Egypt relationship and to US national security priorities, particularly given the helpful role Egypt has played in the aftermath of Operation Epic Fury.”

“Operation Epic Fury” is the designation used by the US military for the campaign launched jointly with Israel against Iran in late February.

The State Department memorandum, whose authenticity was confirmed by two sources in Washington familiar with the letter, did not provide detailed information regarding what was termed Egypt’s “helpful role”.

The State Department’s annual decision on military aid to Egypt typically covers funds allocated for the preceding fiscal year, which ends on 30 September.

A State Department spokesperson stated that Rubio waived the certification in the interest of US national security and that the US continues to cooperate with the Egyptian government across a range of issues.

In an emailed statement, the spokesperson said: “This waiver recognizes the importance of maintaining security cooperation with Egypt at a time of significant security challenges in the region.”

The Egyptian Ministry of Foreign Affairs did not immediately comment on the matter.

The spillover effects of the Iran war have imposed a heavy toll on US security partners, including Egypt.

Owing to rising fuel prices and other disruptions, the Egyptian economy is passing through a difficult period.

Under the Biden administration, the US withheld portions of the annual military allocation on multiple occasions over Egypt’s human rights record.

In 2024, following the Hamas-led 7 October attack on Israel and the subsequent war in Gaza, the Biden administration set aside human rights conditions, disbursing the entire $1.3 billion allocation to Egypt for the first time in its tenure.

Human rights organisations have long accused Egypt, under the administration of President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, of widespread human rights abuses, including torture and enforced disappearances.

This week, Egyptian police detained six journalists from a fact-checking and investigative media outlet, accusing them of spreading false information on behalf of the banned Muslim Brotherhood.

Egyptian authorities state that they have taken steps to address human rights issues. Sisi said stability is paramount and that the government supports human rights by working to provide for basic needs.

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Britain expands curbs on arms exports to Israel over Gaza risks

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Britain has significantly broadened its military export restrictions targeting Israel, suspending or rejecting more than 80 licences for items the IDF could use in Gaza.

This figure is nearly triple the number affected when the policy was first introduced in September 2024.

United Kingdom Minister of State for the Middle East Stephen Doughty said that as part of what he described as a “tighter system” for assessing exports to Israel, more than 50 further export applications have been refused since approximately 30 licences were initially suspended.

Under the initial decision taken in September 2024, 30 of roughly 350 licences were suspended after the British government concluded there was a “clear risk” that certain military exports could be used to commit or facilitate serious violations of international humanitarian law in Gaza.

The affected equipment included components for military aircraft, drones, naval systems, and targeting gear.

Doughty said additional measures adopted this month established what he termed a “double safeguard” mechanism within the approvals process.

Export applications must now be assessed both against existing international humanitarian law criteria and in light of Britain’s position on the legality of Israel’s presence in the Palestinian territories.

“We have so far suspended or refused more than 80 licences,” Doughty said, adding that he had personally examined each licence.

Despite the wider restrictions, British-origin parts entering the international F-35 fighter jet supply chain continue to be largely exempt.

The UK government argues that preventing British-made components from entering the global F-35 pool could undermine the programme as a whole and have serious consequences for the security of the UK and its allies.

Direct exports of F-35 parts intended specifically for Israel remain suspended.

Doughty defended maintaining the supply of components via the international programme, arguing that halting it could have severe ramifications for the broader European and allied security architecture.

Foreign Affairs Committee Chair Emily Thornberry challenged this position, arguing that the issue was political rather than purely legal.

Thornberry suggested adopting an approach similar to the Dutch model, under which components entering the international supply chain could be flagged as “not intended for aircraft bound for Israel”.

The initial suspension was implemented in September 2024 by then Foreign Secretary David Lammy.

Lammy stressed at the time that the measure did not constitute an arms embargo and applied solely to items assessed as usable in military operations in Gaza.

Since then, the policy has been tightened further under Prime Minister Andy Burnham.

The expanded export restrictions follow the Burnham government’s adoption of a more confrontational policy toward the Israeli government.

Foreign Secretary Ed Miliband drew sustained applause at the Labour Party’s annual conference in Liverpool after delivering a sharp critique of the Netanyahu government’s policies and defending the decision to ban trade with Israeli settlements in the West Bank.

Accusing Israel of committing war crimes in Gaza, Miliband stated that the British government heard public outrage over the conflict, telling delegates: “We hear you. You were right.”

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Netanyahu holds secret UAE talks with Saudi Arabia and Arab officials

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Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met with representatives of Gulf and Arab nations that lack diplomatic ties with Israel, including Saudi Arabia, during his weekend visit to the United Arab Emirates.

Sources close to the gathering told the Israeli newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth on Monday that representatives from Morocco, Libya, Jordan, and Qatar also took part in the meeting.

Netanyahu made a unannounced visit to Abu Dhabi on Sunday, where he met with the country’s leader, Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan.

According to Israeli media, this marked the first time the United Arab Emirates officially confirmed a visit by Netanyahu.

The meeting was arranged by Mossad Director Roman Goffman “at the request of Saudi Arabia, which asked for Israel’s assistance against Houthi attacks in the Red Sea region,” according to Yedioth Ahronoth.

The discussions addressed Iran and the Houthi militia. The newspaper added that the Arab states heard from Israel that “Israel is prepared to assist countries in the region with air defence systems, just as it aided the UAE during the conflict with Iran.”

Conflict in Yemen intensified in September when Ansarullah militiamen launched a rapid offensive that seized Yemen’s entire Red Sea coastline, including the vital maritime corridor of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.

The Yemeni resistance also imposed a blockade on Saudi Arabia’s energy exports and staged multiple attacks against the kingdom.

Saudi Arabia reportedly sought military assistance from the US to counter Ansarullah.

Washington declined to attack the Houthis directly, but announced that it would provide intelligence and targeting support.

Reporting on the same visit, The Jerusalem Post said Netanyahu spent six hours in the UAE and that the principal subject of his discussions with MBZ was Iran.

Citing sources familiar with the matter, the newspaper added that the trip came “after Netanyahu exerted heavy pressure on the United Arab Emirates to arrange a meeting ahead of the Israeli elections on 27 October.”

Separately, the Associated Press, citing a person with direct knowledge of the meeting, reported that Netanyahu’s visit to the UAE was arranged in part to ask MBZ to deny reports that he had warned the Israeli prime minister of an impending Hamas threat prior to 7 October 2023.

According to Israeli media, Netanyahu’s office denied the AP report, issuing the following statement:

“Fake news. The visit focused solely on strengthening ties between the two countries and on regional issues.”

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