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Fear of “if Biden loses, Trump comes” in the West

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Could the potential loss of US President Joe Biden in the 2024 presidential election bolster Russia’s negotiating stance? According to four senior US and European officials who spoke to CNN International, Russian leader Putin is strategizing his Ukrainian war plans with an eye on the 2024 elections. According to US and EU officials, Moscow believes that Biden’s departure from office could strengthen its position in Ukraine.

The conflict in Ukraine is intensifying in various hot spots, from Donbass in eastern Ukraine to the Black Sea and the coast of Odessa, making it challenging to forecast the immediate future of the war. Nonetheless, in the medium term, the trajectory of events can be somewhat predicted.

Currently, it appears unlikely that either side will achieve a definitive military victory.

During this stage of the war, Russia is concentrating on depleting Ukraine’s resources, while the Ukrainian government is actively seeking to enhance its inventory with advanced weapon systems, notably F-16 fighter jets.

While Russia is solidifying its position and has not shown significant vulnerability on the front line, even in the face of military rebellions like Wagner’s, the future military aid and training processes for the Ukrainian army, as well as the duration of the war for Ukraine, appear to be contingent on external developments beyond Kyiv’s control.

US and European officials have already initiated discussions regarding the implications of the 2024 presidential elections in light of the ongoing context. According to four US and EU officials who spoke to CNN International, Russian President Vladimir Putin has factored the 2024 presidential elections into his strategic considerations for the Ukrainian conflict.

“Trump will help Putin”

An anonymous US official suggests that Putin is trying to “hold out” until the 2024 election. According to the same source, Putin “knows that Trump will help him. So do the Ukrainians and our European partners.”

Former US President Donald Trump has consistently asserted in his statements on Ukraine that he could swiftly resolve the conflict in a day or two. Moreover, numerous Republicans in the US Senate and House of Representatives have been critical of and have questioned the provision of aid to Ukraine throughout the duration of the war.

According to a recent CNN International poll, a majority of Americans are opposed to providing further aid to Ukraine. Specifically, 71 percent of Republicans believe that Congress should not authorize new funding, and 59 percent of Republicans are of the opinion that the US has already done enough to assist Ukraine. On the other hand, the sentiments among Democrats differ significantly, with 62 percent expressing support for providing additional funding to Ukraine, and 61 percent believing that the US should do more to aid the country.

Donald Trump’s extremely heavy dossier, in which he is accused of interfering in the outcome of the 2020 US presidential election, makes sense in this context.

2023 summer front

During this summer, two significant developments had an impact on the conflict in Ukraine. The first was the NATO Summit, and the second was Russia’s withdrawal from the Grain Corridor agreement. Ukraine aimed to attend the summit with a military victory, but NATO commanders urged them to launch an offensive they were not fully prepared for. Despite their efforts, the Ukrainian forces were unable to break through the multi-layered defense lines established by Russia, which had learned from past mistakes of the last year. Additionally, there was a rebellion by the Wagner Group during the offensive, but it did not lead to a favorable outcome for Ukraine.

When the offensive did not yield the desired results, the special forces attack on the Crimean Bridge and drone strikes against Moscow became prominent in Ukraine’s military actions.

In response to the situation before and after the NATO summit, Russia withdrew from the Grain Corridor. It started to strike Ukraine’s ports and Black Sea coasts again.

Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu also visited the conflict zone in Ukraine. He inspected the command center of the Central Troop Group and received reports from the commanders of the troops on the current situation and performance.

The US administration is calling on the UN Security Council to take action against Russia, which seems to have recovered on the front line compared to a year ago.

According to the US, Russia is using food as a weapon and striking ports in Ukraine. A document condemning this has been submitted by the US to the UN Security Council. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has also called on Security Council members to say “enough” to Moscow.

Moscow, for its part, says it will return to the Grain Corridor Agreement only after the compromise text includes steps to remove obstacles to the export of Russian agricultural products. According to the Kremlin, Ukrainian grain mainly goes to rich countries, not poor ones.

A reminder: Jubilation for Trump in Damascus in 2016

Beyond the daily and weekly developments, the 2024 elections will redefine the attitude of both Moscow and the Western bloc towards the Ukrainian war. In 2016, it is worth remembering why the Damascus regime cheered when Trump won the presidency. We do not know what would have happened in Syria, the hot conflict zone of that period, if Hilary Clinton, who laughed at the cameras during a program about Gaddafi, had won. However, trying to evaluate the possible effects of the US elections in 2024 on the Ukraine crisis by looking at the effects of the previous elections on Syria is also quite possible and perhaps the subject of a separate article.

AMERICA

Judge orders Trump administration to preserve Signal chats about Yemen operation

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A federal judge ordered the Trump administration to preserve chats conducted by senior officials via the Signal messaging app, including messages mistakenly shared with a reporter earlier this month concerning an imminent military operation in Yemen.

US District Judge James Boasberg issued the ruling on Thursday at the request of a transparency group that sued, alleging the app’s auto-delete function risked destroying the messages in violation of the Federal Records Act.

During a brief afternoon hearing, Justice Department lawyer Amber Richer told Boasberg such an order was unnecessary because the relevant agencies were already taking steps to preserve the records. However, she did not object to the judge reinforcing this with a court order.

“We are still in the process of working with the agencies to determine what records they have, but we are also working with the agencies to preserve the records they do possess,” Richer said.

However, the government lawyer appeared to acknowledge a court filing made earlier in the day by a Treasury Department official, which suggested that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent currently possesses only a portion of the message chain related to the Yemen strike.

The journalist added to the message chain, The Atlantic editor Jeffrey Goldberg, reported that the chat began on March 11. Yet, Bessent only has messages starting from the afternoon of March 15. It remains unclear why Bessent failed to preserve the earlier messages or whether other senior officials in the chat retained them.

Richer stated to Boasberg, “I want to note that we are still determining what records the agencies possess.”

The Atlantic published parts of the messages earlier this week and the remainder on Wednesday after the White House stated it did not consider the exchanges classified, even though they described the scope and timeline of a military operation that had not yet occurred.

According to The Atlantic‘s report, national security adviser Mike Waltz, who initiated the exchange, had initially set the messages to auto-delete after one week but later changed the duration to four weeks.

Speaking from the bench, Boasberg ordered the defendants in the case—Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard, and CIA Director John Ratcliffe—”to preserve all Signal communications between March 11 and March 15.”

This directive appears broader than just the messages shared with Goldberg; it could encompass other Signal messages sent or received by the officials during that period.

A Pentagon lawyer also submitted a written declaration stating the Defense Department was attempting to preserve these records as well but did not claim any records had been recovered. The administration suggested that The Atlantic‘s publication of the entire exchange, except for the redaction of a CIA officer’s name, ensured the messages’ preservation.

At the start of the hearing, Boasberg also responded to a social media post by President Donald Trump suggesting the judge had improperly gained control of the politically sensitive case.

Trump had called it “shameful” that the judge, an appointee of former President Barack Obama, was handling multiple legal cases involving the White House in recent weeks. In addition to the Signal case, Boasberg is presiding over a case involving Trump’s efforts to rapidly deport people using the Alien Enemies Act.

Boasberg addressed the matter, stating he “understood some questions had been raised” about how the court assigns cases. He explained that for the 15 active judges serving on the court, cases are randomly assigned across various categories in nearly all instances “to ensure a more even distribution of cases.”

Clerks use an electronic deck of cards within each category to determine which judge receives a newly filed case.

“That is how it works, and that is how all cases continue to be assigned in this court,” said Boasberg, who has served as the court’s chief judge since 2023.

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US revokes visa of Turkish PhD student Rumeysa Ozturk

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Turkish student Rumeysa Ozturk, pursuing a doctorate at Tufts University in Boston, Massachusetts, US, was detained on March 25.

Speaking about the incident, which gained attention in the US, Senator Marco Rubio confirmed that Ozturk’s visa had been canceled.

Rubio stated, “We gave you a visa to get an education; not to be a social activist who destroys our campuses. If you use your visa to do that, we will take your visa back. I encourage every country to do the same.”

The US Senator continued, “If you lie to get a visa, and then engage in this type of behavior after arriving here, we will cancel your visa. And when your visa is canceled, you are no longer legally in the US. Like any country, we have the right to deport you. It’s that simple.”

The Senator also announced that the visas of approximately 300 students had been similarly canceled.

Rubio asked, “It would be madness, even stupidity, for a country to let in people who say, ‘I’m going to go to your universities and start riots, occupy libraries, harass people.’ I don’t care what movement you are part of. Why should we accept that?”

Rubio said that individuals could carry out such actions “in their own countries, but not in the US.”

Last year, mass student protests occurred at many universities across the US to protest the administration’s support for Israel’s military operations in Gaza.

It is alleged that Ozturk, whose student visa was canceled, participated in “pro-Hamas” movements.

Rumeysa Ozturk’s lawyer, Mahsa Khanbabai, noted in a written statement to BBC Turkce that she was first able to speak with the young woman on the evening of March 27.

Referring to the moments of her client’s detention, the lawyer stated, “Nothing in this video indicates they were law enforcement officers or which agency they were from. This situation should deeply concern everyone.”

Khanbabai emphasized that Ozturk is a successful doctoral student at Tufts University on a Fulbright scholarship and stressed that the allegations of her being a Hamas supporter were “baseless.”

Video footage of Ozturk’s detention showed the doctoral student being surrounded by plainclothes officials on the street while heading to iftar.

The officials subsequently handcuffed Ozturk behind her back and led her to a vehicle.

In a written statement shared with BBC Turkce, Tufts University said, “We are in contact with the authorities. We hope Rumeysa will be given the opportunity to clear her name using her legal rights.”

Minister of Justice Yilmaz Tunc declared in his statement that he strongly condemned the detention, arguing the incident was “proof that there is no freedom of thought in so-called democratic countries and that human rights are not respected.”

CHP leader Ozgur Ozel also condemned the detention, stating in his post that “hundreds of students in Turkey arrested groundlessly and unscrupulously are experiencing the same victimization.”

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Trump announces 25% tariff on imported cars and parts

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US President Donald Trump announced that a 25% customs tariff will be applied to cars imported into the US.

Effective from April 2, the taxes also include car parts not produced in the US.

The President stated that the tariffs will be “permanent,” adding that there is nothing that would necessitate the removal of the import taxes.

Trump told reporters, “We will apply a 25% customs duty, but if you produce your car in the US, there is no customs duty. This means that many foreign car companies will be in a very good position because they have already established their facilities in the US.”

In a fact sheet released after Trump’s remarks in the Oval Office, the White House stated that car parts compliant with the US-Mexico-Canada (USMCA) trade agreement would remain exempt from customs duties “until Customs and Border Protection establishes a process to apply customs duties to their content outside the US.”

The US International Trade Commission examined in early 2024 the potential consequences if the government implemented comprehensive automotive tariffs. According to the report, a 25% customs duty applied to all US car imports would reduce imports by approximately 74% and increase average car prices by 5%.

Although President Trump’s increase in customs duties on imported vehicles will primarily affect foreign automakers, domestic automakers General Motors and Ford will also face a significant impact.

According to research by Wards Automotive and Barclays, Volvo (13%), Mazda (19%), and Volkswagen (21%) produce the lowest share of their vehicles sold in the US within the country.

Hyundai-Kia (33%), Mercedes (43%), BMW (48%), and Toyota (48%) also produce less than half of the vehicles they sell in the US domestically.

According to the Department of Transportation, examples of significant 2025 models imported into the US include the Ford Maverick pickup, Chevrolet Blazer crossover, Hyundai Venue crossover, Nissan Sentra compact car, Porsche 911 sports car, and Toyota Prius hybrid.

Approximately 45% of vehicles sold in the US are imported, with the largest share originating from Mexico and Canada.

According to data from the American Automobile Labeling Act, every 2025 model year vehicle sources at least 20% of its content from countries outside the US and Canada.

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