America
Fear of “if Biden loses, Trump comes” in the West
Could the potential loss of US President Joe Biden in the 2024 presidential election bolster Russia’s negotiating stance? According to four senior US and European officials who spoke to CNN International, Russian leader Putin is strategizing his Ukrainian war plans with an eye on the 2024 elections. According to US and EU officials, Moscow believes that Biden’s departure from office could strengthen its position in Ukraine.
The conflict in Ukraine is intensifying in various hot spots, from Donbass in eastern Ukraine to the Black Sea and the coast of Odessa, making it challenging to forecast the immediate future of the war. Nonetheless, in the medium term, the trajectory of events can be somewhat predicted.
Currently, it appears unlikely that either side will achieve a definitive military victory.
During this stage of the war, Russia is concentrating on depleting Ukraine’s resources, while the Ukrainian government is actively seeking to enhance its inventory with advanced weapon systems, notably F-16 fighter jets.
While Russia is solidifying its position and has not shown significant vulnerability on the front line, even in the face of military rebellions like Wagner’s, the future military aid and training processes for the Ukrainian army, as well as the duration of the war for Ukraine, appear to be contingent on external developments beyond Kyiv’s control.
US and European officials have already initiated discussions regarding the implications of the 2024 presidential elections in light of the ongoing context. According to four US and EU officials who spoke to CNN International, Russian President Vladimir Putin has factored the 2024 presidential elections into his strategic considerations for the Ukrainian conflict.
“Trump will help Putin”
An anonymous US official suggests that Putin is trying to “hold out” until the 2024 election. According to the same source, Putin “knows that Trump will help him. So do the Ukrainians and our European partners.”
Former US President Donald Trump has consistently asserted in his statements on Ukraine that he could swiftly resolve the conflict in a day or two. Moreover, numerous Republicans in the US Senate and House of Representatives have been critical of and have questioned the provision of aid to Ukraine throughout the duration of the war.
According to a recent CNN International poll, a majority of Americans are opposed to providing further aid to Ukraine. Specifically, 71 percent of Republicans believe that Congress should not authorize new funding, and 59 percent of Republicans are of the opinion that the US has already done enough to assist Ukraine. On the other hand, the sentiments among Democrats differ significantly, with 62 percent expressing support for providing additional funding to Ukraine, and 61 percent believing that the US should do more to aid the country.
Donald Trump’s extremely heavy dossier, in which he is accused of interfering in the outcome of the 2020 US presidential election, makes sense in this context.
2023 summer front
During this summer, two significant developments had an impact on the conflict in Ukraine. The first was the NATO Summit, and the second was Russia’s withdrawal from the Grain Corridor agreement. Ukraine aimed to attend the summit with a military victory, but NATO commanders urged them to launch an offensive they were not fully prepared for. Despite their efforts, the Ukrainian forces were unable to break through the multi-layered defense lines established by Russia, which had learned from past mistakes of the last year. Additionally, there was a rebellion by the Wagner Group during the offensive, but it did not lead to a favorable outcome for Ukraine.
When the offensive did not yield the desired results, the special forces attack on the Crimean Bridge and drone strikes against Moscow became prominent in Ukraine’s military actions.
In response to the situation before and after the NATO summit, Russia withdrew from the Grain Corridor. It started to strike Ukraine’s ports and Black Sea coasts again.
Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu also visited the conflict zone in Ukraine. He inspected the command center of the Central Troop Group and received reports from the commanders of the troops on the current situation and performance.
The US administration is calling on the UN Security Council to take action against Russia, which seems to have recovered on the front line compared to a year ago.
According to the US, Russia is using food as a weapon and striking ports in Ukraine. A document condemning this has been submitted by the US to the UN Security Council. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has also called on Security Council members to say “enough” to Moscow.
Moscow, for its part, says it will return to the Grain Corridor Agreement only after the compromise text includes steps to remove obstacles to the export of Russian agricultural products. According to the Kremlin, Ukrainian grain mainly goes to rich countries, not poor ones.
A reminder: Jubilation for Trump in Damascus in 2016
Beyond the daily and weekly developments, the 2024 elections will redefine the attitude of both Moscow and the Western bloc towards the Ukrainian war. In 2016, it is worth remembering why the Damascus regime cheered when Trump won the presidency. We do not know what would have happened in Syria, the hot conflict zone of that period, if Hilary Clinton, who laughed at the cameras during a program about Gaddafi, had won. However, trying to evaluate the possible effects of the US elections in 2024 on the Ukraine crisis by looking at the effects of the previous elections on Syria is also quite possible and perhaps the subject of a separate article.
America
Trump administration targets 60 nations with new tariff draft under Section 301
The US administration is proposing new tariffs of at least 10% on imports from 60 trading partners, following an investigation into goods allegedly produced using forced labor.
According to a Bloomberg report citing sources within the Office of the US Trade Representative (USTR), the specific tariff rates will vary based on individual countries’ legislative frameworks regarding forced labor and their capacity to enforce those laws.
Under the drafted regulations, a 10% tariff rate will apply to imports from the European Union, Mexico, Canada, the United Kingdom, Taiwan, and several other nations. Conversely, goods arriving from China, India, Japan, South Korea, Switzerland, and Brazil will be subject to a 12,5% tariff.
The USTR stated that the lower tariff rate will apply to products from nations that prohibit forced labor or have committed to doing so. The agency emphasized that states failing to establish such prohibitions or lacking the capacity to effectively enforce them will face the higher tariff rate.
Bloomberg reported that this step represents a continuation of President Donald Trump’s policy to reinstate across-the-board tariffs on all countries, which had previously been ruled unconstitutional.
The proposed tariffs are the result of investigations initiated under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974.
Commenting on the development, Deborah Elms, Head of the Trade Policy Group at the Hinrich Foundation in Singapore, said, “This is highly significant because Section 301 is an extremely powerful tool and is highly unlikely to be overturned. This opens the door to a range of new tariff and non-tariff measures.”
The report noted that the tariffs are being introduced at what could be a turning point for the global economy.
Financial markets are already navigating a sensitive period due to rising gas and oil prices driven by conflict in Iran.
The new tariffs will not take effect immediately. Before implementation, a review and evaluation period will be conducted, which may lead to modifications in the draft proposal.
According to the timeline reported by Bloomberg, written comments on the tariffs must be submitted by July 6. Additionally, the Section 301 Committee is scheduled to hold a public hearing on July 7.
US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer argued that forced labor practices in partner nations force American workers to compete on an unequal playing field. “We will no longer tolerate this unfairness,” Greer said.
On the other hand, the USTR proposed certain tariff exemptions that could affect apparel and textile imports. While these goods could enter the US at reduced tariff rates, quotas would be determined based on the respective countries’ existing textile exports to the US.
Beef, tomatoes, bananas, coffee, orange juice, and several other food products will be entirely exempt from the tariffs. Furthermore, double taxation will not be imposed on metals, specific fuel types, and chemicals that are already subject to other duties.
In May, the US Court of International Trade ruled that the 10% tariff on foreign imports promoted by President Donald Trump was unlawful. Defending the White House’s objectives following the court ruling, Trump characterized the judges as “radical left-wing” and remarked, “Nothing surprises me. We always find different ways. We make a decision and act in another way.”
In February, the US Supreme Court also ruled that tariffs established by Trump were contrary to the law. The court concluded that the president had exceeded his authority in imposing those duties. Trump, however, claimed that the court was under foreign influence.
America
Google seeks approval to release 32 million mosquitoes in US disease-control project
Google is seeking federal approval to release nearly 32 million mosquitoes in California and Florida as part of a biological pest-control initiative known as the Debug project.
The little-known program aims to combat disease-carrying mosquitoes by releasing millions of sterile male mosquitoes into the environment, an approach designed to stop “bad bugs with good bugs.”
According to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), mosquitoes are classified as the world’s deadliest animals. Of the more than 3,500 mosquito species that exist globally, only Aedes aegypti is responsible for transmitting dengue fever, Zika virus and chikungunya, diseases that sicken hundreds of millions of people each year.
In a statement published on the official website of the Debug project, Google described the issue as a difficult problem to solve, noting that many mosquito-borne diseases lack effective vaccines or treatments.
The statement argued that relying on pesticides is not a sustainable solution because such chemicals become less effective over time and can be toxic. It also said that eliminating standing water alone is insufficient because it is impossible to identify every breeding site used by mosquitoes.
For those reasons, Google said a new approach is required and that it found a solution in what it describes as “good” mosquitoes of the same species.
The project website explains the method as follows:
“Good bugs are the same mosquito species as the bad bugs that spread disease. Our good bugs are male mosquitoes carrying Wolbachia, a naturally occurring bacterium found in nature. This bacterium prevents them from producing offspring with wild female mosquitoes. Male mosquitoes do not bite and cannot spread disease, so the good bugs will stop the bad bugs from reproducing. Over time, fewer bad mosquitoes will remain.”
Scientists involved in the Debug project emphasized that the technique relies entirely on a naturally occurring bacterium, contains no chemicals or toxins, and does not involve genetic modification.
Researchers said similar approaches have been used safely for decades to control other pests. They added that the Debug team is combining scientific and engineering expertise with support from international partners in an effort to suppress disease-carrying mosquito populations.
Project scientists said their approach differs from previous eradication programs because it applies the Sterile Insect Technique on a larger scale through the use of data analytics, sensors and automation.
According to information published in the project’s frequently asked questions section, program officials are working closely with national and local governments, community leaders and research institutions.
Officials said they meet with residents in areas targeted for deployment before operations begin in order to better understand local concerns and priorities.
Google is therefore continuing to pursue federal authorization to implement the project in both California and Florida.
A notice published in the Federal Register shows that the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is reviewing Google’s applications for an Experimental Use Permit under the Federal Insecticide, Fungicide, and Rodenticide Act.
According to details contained in the filing, nearly 16 million mosquitoes would be released in Florida during the first year of the project.
A further 16 million mosquitoes would be released in California during the second year.
Members of the public can obtain additional information and submit comments through the federal rulemaking portal by visiting regulations.gov and entering docket identification number EPA-HQ-OPP-2025-3951.
America
US Marines test lower-cost counter-drone system to reduce missile dependence
US Marine Corps personnel tested a new counter-drone defense system during military exercises held in the Philippines in April.
According to a report by The Wall Street Journal (WSJ), the system is designed to avoid the continuous use of expensive missiles and instead relies on a coordinated set of countermeasures.
The system consists of two armored vehicles known collectively as MADIS (Marine Air Defense Integrated System).
One vehicle is equipped with an advanced radar system, while the other carries the Stinger air defense missile system. Both vehicles are also fitted with a small cannon, a machine gun and electronic warfare equipment.
According to the report, MADIS is intended to provide military personnel with multiple options for engaging drones, including cannon fire, missiles and electronic warfare tools.
The objective is to reduce dependence on high-cost weapons when protecting military units and other strategic assets.
US Marine Corps officials told WSJ that one of the system’s most effective features is its ability to fire specially manufactured 30-millimeter ammunition equipped with precision fuzes that detonate as they approach a target.
Steven Sawyer, a former ammunition technician at the NATO Support and Procurement Agency, told the newspaper that 30-millimeter rounds are generally less accurate than missiles but are significantly cheaper to use.
Sawyer said that even if five such rounds were required to destroy a drone, the total cost would remain around $11,250.
By comparison, a single Stinger missile costs about $430,000, while Coyote interceptor missiles used in conflicts in the Middle East are priced between $100,000 and $125,000 each.
Sawyer added that 30-millimeter ammunition has proven effective against Shahed-family drones, which cannot be neutralized through electronic warfare methods.
At the same time, he stressed that US defense companies continue to face difficulties producing sufficient quantities of the ammunition. According to Sawyer, the precision fuzes are highly sophisticated electromechanical devices and only a limited number of manufacturers can produce them at scale.
WSJ noted that countering large numbers of inexpensive drones has become one of the most pressing challenges facing modern militaries.
The US military has encountered the problem directly during operations in the Middle East, where it has been forced to expend limited stocks of extremely costly precision-guided munitions.
Previously, the South China Morning Post (SCMP) reported that Chinese scientists had developed a combat algorithm known as HG-STR based on a “kill them all” concept.
The algorithm was said to enable swarms of fixed-wing drones to autonomously scan the battlefield and destroy enemy targets even if communications are disrupted and lines of sight are obstructed.
In April, The New York Times, citing three sources within defense and intelligence agencies, reported that the Pentagon assessed Russia’s and China’s drone development programs to be more advanced than those of the United States.
The assessment regarding China’s drone capabilities was reportedly based on analysis of a military parade held in China in September 2025.
-
Asia2 weeks agoIran conflict accelerates yuan adoption and record CIPS volumes in global oil trade
-
Asia2 weeks agoXi and Putin deepen partnership with call for ‘multipolar world’
-
Europe2 weeks agoFive EU states push gradual single market access for Western Balkans
-
Middle East1 week agoLeaked documents show IRGC routed Chinese military equipment through UAE
-
Europe1 week agoFrench justice minister calls for three-year halt to legal immigration
-
Middle East1 week agoIran says Hormuz transit will remain free but ships must cover operational costs
-
Diplomacy2 weeks agoNATO weighs Hormuz security mission if Iran blockade remains in place by July
-
Europe2 weeks agoGermany initiates diplomatic contact with France’s National Rally ahead of presidential election
