Diplomacy
Who will be attending the BRICS Summit in Kazan?
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and many other leaders are expected to attend the BRICS summit in Kazan on 22-24 October. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said the summit would be important for BRICS expansion and international issues.
Representatives of more than 30 countries and heads of some international organisations have confirmed their participation in the BRICS Summit to be held in Kazan on 22-24 October.
At a press conference on 3 October, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov revealed only two names: Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Dilma Rousseff, former president of Brazil and president of the New Development Bank.
Ryabkov declined to provide information about the other guests, saying they were “outside my mandate” and would be announced by the Russian presidential administration closer to the summit.
At the beginning of his speech, Ryabkov named five new members, including Saudi Arabia, which will join BRICS in early 2024, as well as the 10 existing BRICS members. All these countries will be represented at the highest level at the summit, the diplomat said.
In addition to Russian President Vladimir Putin, Chinese President Xi Jinping, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and South African President Cyril Ramaphosa are expected to attend the summit.
Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed al-Nahyan, President of the United Arab Emirates, Massoud Pezeshkian, President of Iran, Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, President of Egypt, Abiy Ahmed, Prime Minister of Ethiopia, and Mohammed bin Salman, Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, are also expected in Kazan.
Türkiye’s role and the Ukraine issue
Commenting on President Erdogan’s participation in the Kazan summit, Ryabkov confirmed that Türkiye has officially applied to join BRICS, but for now Erdogan will participate in BRICS Plus outreach events. Ryabkov recalled that a unanimous decision by all member states is required for a country to join BRICS.
The summit is also expected to discuss Ukraine, where Erdogan has differences with Moscow. At the “Crimea Platform” meeting in September, Türkiye took a stance in favour of Ukraine’s sovereignty over Crimea.
In this context, it is known that Moscow does not see the possibility of direct contact with Kiev, but is open to various solutions, including the BRICS countries.
Ryabkov also spoke about the strategic stabilisation talks with the United States. He said that Russia was not ready for dialogue ‘as long as the US intention to inflict a strategic defeat on us remains unchanged’. He also criticised Washington’s desire to limit its own nuclear arsenal without taking into account the nuclear weapons of its European allies.
BRICS expansion and future
Further expansion of BRICS is not on the agenda for the summit in Russia. Although some 40 countries have expressed a desire to join BRICS or establish close cooperation, the union’s primary goal is to complete the integration of new members by 1 January 2024.
Ryabkov stated that the doors of BRICS will remain open, but there are some criteria for countries to join the union. These criteria include pursuing an independent foreign policy, playing an important role in international and regional affairs, and having good relations with BRICS countries.
A report on granting the BRICS a new ‘partner country’ status will also be presented in Kazan.
Ryabkov acknowledged that there are some difficulties within BRICS. In particular, he stressed that the national interests of member countries do not always coincide and that a single currency is not yet on the agenda in some areas, including financial issues. However, he noted that BRICS should take its decisions unanimously, which could slow down the development of the union from time to time.
At the end of the press conference, Ryabkov responded to a question about the similarity of the international situation with the Cuban missile crisis of 1962. Addressing his Western interlocutors, he said that the possibility of a direct confrontation between the nuclear powers should not be underestimated. We are now entering uncharted political and military territory. Our adversaries cannot afford to make a mistake, because the price of that mistake could be catastrophic,’ the deputy minister said.
Andrey Kortunov, research director at the Russian Council on International Relations, told Vedomosti newspaper that BRICS risks becoming a debating club incapable of taking effective decisions.
Kortunov said that the expansion of the organisation cannot be stopped and that steps towards expansion will be taken in Kazan. It is also expected that the status of a BRICS partner country will be more clearly defined and considered as a candidate status for future membership.
The issue of enlargement cannot be put on hold. Leaders who hope to join the organisation in one status or another are coming to Kazan,” the expert concluded.
Diplomacy
Greece’s Marinakis says paying Hormuz transit fees beats enduring Red Sea shipping crisis detour
Evangelos Marinakis, one of Greece’s leading shipowners, has announced that he is prepared to pay up to $200,000 per transit to keep the Strait of Hormuz open to civilian maritime traffic.
Speaking to the Financial Times, Marinakis stated that paying a transit fee would be a far better option for him than having the strait closed to navigation.
As the chairman of Capital Maritime Group, which controls a fleet of 185 vessels including approximately 35 tankers, Marinakis emphasized that shipowners have been forced to use alternative routes around the Cape of Good Hope for years due to attacks launched by the Houthis in the Red Sea, a detour that has generated substantial additional costs.
The Greek shipowner indicated that paying a transit fee of $100,000 or $200,000, depending on the size of the cargo or the vessel, is far more reasonable than enduring the current logistical challenges. He added that such payments could offset all the losses experienced so far.
Following US strikes on Iran and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the Tehran administration had introduced transit fees of up to $2 million for certain vessels transiting the waterway.
In May, Iran announced the establishment of a state agency tasked with managing the Strait of Hormuz. It was stated that the institution in question would provide real-time updates regarding maritime activities in the waterway.
Ebrahim Azizi, the chairman of the Iranian Parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy Commission, had noted that only commercial vessels and countries cooperating with Iran would be able to benefit from the facilities provided under this “professional mechanism.”
US President Donald Trump has explicitly opposed the imposition of transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz. In a statement on the matter, Trump said, “We want the strait to be open. We do not want any transit fees to be charged. This is an international waterway.”
On the other hand, the draft text of a planned 60-day ceasefire extension agreement between the parties stipulates that the Strait of Hormuz will remain open without any transit fees being demanded.
According to the draft details reviewed by Axios, the US in return commits to lifting the blockade it has imposed on Iranian ports. The Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, however, announced that the management of the Strait of Hormuz has been excluded from the scope of the agreement with the US, asserting that the issue will be addressed solely by littoral states.
Diplomacy
Pashinyan promises aid to farmers hit by Russian import restrictions
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has pledged compensation for Armenian farmers affected by restrictions on exports to Russia.
According to Sputnik Armenia, Pashinyan made the announcement during an election campaign meeting in the Gegharkunik region.
Speaking at the event, Pashinyan said the subsidies would be designed to offset losses incurred by producers.
The prime minister also acknowledged that some Armenian products had failed to meet required quality standards, adding that such companies would receive support aimed at improving product quality.
Addressing alternative markets for Armenian exports, Pashinyan said several Armenian business delegations were already engaged in negotiations abroad.
He added that Armenia had received offers for the purchase of roses as well as fresh fruits and vegetables.
Pashinyan argued that Armenia’s agricultural output was not particularly large, describing this as an advantage under current circumstances. According to the prime minister, “a respected supermarket chain in Europe” would be capable of selling the entire volume of these products on its own.
Russia’s Federal Service for Veterinary and Phytosanitary Surveillance (Rosselkhoznadzor) imposed temporary restrictions on imports of stone fruits and grapes from Armenia effective July 2.
The ban covers cherries, sour cherries, apricots, plums, peaches and nectarines, among other products.
On the same day, a temporary suspension was also introduced on certification procedures for live fish shipments from Armenia. Russian authorities had previously restricted the entry of flower products originating from Armenia into the Russian market.
In addition, Russia’s Federal Service for Surveillance on Consumer Rights Protection and Human Wellbeing (Rospotrebnadzor) halted the import of all consignments of Jermuk mineral water from Armenia.
In a statement, the agency said levels of bicarbonate, chloride and sulfate ions in the mineral water exceeded established limits and could mislead consumers regarding the product’s medicinal properties.
The Russian regulator argued that the growing number of violations stemmed from the abolition of Armenia’s Agriculture Ministry and the transfer of its responsibilities to the Economy Ministry.
Rosselkhoznadzor further stated that Armenia’s Economy Ministry was experiencing structural problems and was unable to adequately perform the supervisory functions assigned to it.
Diplomacy
Zelenskyy urges US to grant Ukraine license to produce Patriot missiles
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he has asked the United States to grant Ukraine a license to manufacture missiles for the Patriot air defence system.
In a post on social media platform X, Zelenskyy argued that current US production of missile defence interceptors is insufficient and could contribute to crises in different parts of the world.
“Producing 60-65 missiles a month is nothing compared with the challenges we face today. This is no secret, and Russia knows it as well,” Zelenskyy wrote. “We need to expand production. As I requested from the previous US administration, I am asking the current administration to grant Ukraine a license to produce Patriot missiles.”
Zelenskyy said US companies possess advanced technologies that are not available in Ukraine, while Kyiv could contribute its extensive battlefield experience in return.
He also argued that granting such a license would benefit not only Ukraine, but also the Middle East and any country Washington chooses to support.
Washington pledges to maintain defence support
Zelenskyy’s remarks came a day after US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said on May 30 that Washington would continue supporting Ukraine’s defence capabilities and ensure military shipments to Kyiv continue.
“We want them to be able to defend themselves, and we will find a way to help them do that,” Hegseth said.
Several days earlier, Yuriy Ihnat, spokesperson for the Ukrainian Air Force, warned that the country’s air defence forces were experiencing a shortage of missiles.
“Due to certain supply problems, we are practically at starvation levels when it comes to missiles today,” Ihnat said.
Concerns persist over air defence missile stocks
In April, Zelenskyy warned that Ukraine’s stockpile of air defence missiles could be exhausted at any moment.
He said that under current conditions, air defence missiles were more critical for Ukraine than the air defence systems themselves.
Highlighting what he described as a critical shortage of Patriot missiles, Zelenskyy said: “We are facing a deficit now that could hardly be worse.”
Concerns that Ukraine could face a severe shortage of US-made air defence missiles had previously been reported by Reuters.
The situation was expected to worsen as the United States and its allies depleted significant portions of their arsenals during tensions with Iran, a point Zelenskyy also underscored.
In a separate statement in January, Zelenskyy said Ukraine lacked sufficient missiles for both US- and European-made air defence systems.
The Ukrainian leader said he had been forced to personally secure every package of missiles from European countries and the United States.
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