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Where does Türkiye fit into the Syrian equation?

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In its official statements, Türkiye claims it is not involved in the clashes in northwestern Syria, which escalated again on 27 November. However, the participation of elements of the Free Syrian Army (FSA)—referred to as the Syrian National Army (SNA) by Ankara—in clashes in Aleppo on the side of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), along with the group’s entry into Tel Rifaat, indicates that Türkiye is not entirely removed from the situation. Shortly before these developments, Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan criticized Türkiye’s Astana partners for their inaction regarding terrorism and the refugee crisis in Syria, stating: “Where diplomacy does not get an answer, other kinds of steps can be taken.”

On 29 November, Türkiye issued its first official statement regarding attacks launched by terrorist groups in Idlib against the Syrian army on 27 November, which led to the capture of Aleppo and movements toward Hama.

In a statement shared on social media, Foreign Ministry Spokesman Öncü Keçeli attributed the HTS attack on Aleppo to the recent escalation of attacks in Idlib. While avoiding direct references to specific groups, Keçeli emphasized:

“We have made the necessary warnings on various international platforms, stating that the recent attacks on Idlib have reached a dimension that will harm the spirit and functioning of the Astana agreements and cause serious civilian casualties. These attacks must stop.”

He further noted that the clashes have heightened tensions, and Türkiye is closely monitoring the increase in attacks by terrorist groups—such as the YPG, the Syrian affiliate of the PKK—in Tel Rifaat and Manbij. Keçeli expressed concern about the failure to implement agreements aimed at eliminating terrorist threats in these areas.

The next day, Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan reiterated that Türkiye was not directly involved in the Aleppo clashes, stating:

“We will not take any action that triggers a new wave of migration.”

Fidan emphasized Turkey’s vigilance over developments in Syria, particularly the potential for instability to drive another mass migration. Hosting approximately 3 million Syrian refugees, Türkiye has long warned that further conflict in Idlib—home to nearly 2 million displaced people—could exacerbate the refugee crisis.

Türkiye has expressed dissatisfaction with the reluctance of the Syrian government and its Astana partners—Russia and Iran—to address key issues, including the refugee crisis and the YPG threat. According to a report in the Financial Times, Iraqi mediators revealed that Damascus refused to take steps on refugee repatriation, continuing instead to bombard rebel-held Idlib, which has displaced thousands toward the Turkish border.

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has urged Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to cooperate in normalizing relations. However, this process has stalled due to Assad’s demand for a Turkish troop withdrawal and a corresponding timeline—preconditions Ankara rejects. Foreign Minister Fidan has noted that both Russia and Iran appear unwilling to pressure Assad, further complicating normalization efforts.

Syrian ‘opposition’ sources in Türkiye told Al-Akhbar of Türkiye’s position: ‘The war would not have started without its approval, but there may not be a target match between what Ankara wants and what the Syrian opposition wants.”

Analysts said that while Türkiye may not have explicitly approved the HTS-led attack, it would serve Türkiye’s interests and give Ankara more leverage in any negotiations, the FT reported.

Syrian analyst Malik al-Abdeh said: “Since the summer, Assad has had a chance to sit down with Erdogan and work out a plan in which Türkiye would create a zone of influence in northern Syria. He had a chance to negotiate this situation politically while preserving his dignity, but he refused.”

The HTS is listed as a terrorist organisation by the United Nations (UN). Therefore, Türkiye also considers HTS a terrorist organisation. However, it is well known that some elements of the FSA, which is officially supported by Türkiye, have participated in HTS-led attacks.

It is a common view that Türkiye gave its ‘consent’ to the HTS attack in order to pressure Assad over a strategic city like Aleppo and force him to back down from the conditions he had set out for normalisation. Türkiye wants to complete the normalisation process with Damascus, with the main goals being the return of refugees and the elimination of the YPG threat.

However, given that the very name of normalisation has led to attacks by such groups on Türkiye’s assets in Syria, the wisdom of taking this step in pursuit of this goal is debatable.

The HTS is designated as a terrorist organization by the United Nations (UN) and Türkiye. Nonetheless, there is evidence that elements of the FSA, officially supported by Türkiye, have participated in HTS-led attacks. Analysts suggest Türkiye tacitly approved the HTS offensive to pressure Assad into concessions, particularly regarding Aleppo, a strategic city.

Amid these tensions, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi met with Assad in Damascus to discuss regional stability. Araghchi reaffirmed Iran’s commitment to combating Takfiri terrorists and expressed hopes for greater cooperation with Türkiye on mutual security concerns. He noted that while Türkiye and Iran share some common ground, disagreements persist.

MIDDLE EAST

UN to hold conference on two-state solution

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The United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) has approved a resolution to organize a high-level conference aimed at advancing a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and achieving lasting peace in the Middle East.

The 193-member body adopted the draft resolution, introduced by Senegal and co-sponsored by several nations, including Turkey, with 157 votes in favor, 8 against, and 7 abstentions.

The resolution mandates the conference, titled the “High-Level International Conference on the Peaceful Resolution of the Palestinian Question and the Two-State Solution,” to take place in New York from June 2 to 4, 2025. It calls for the adoption of a final declaration outlining a roadmap to resolve the Palestinian issue peacefully and establish a two-state framework.

The resolution emphasizes resuming negotiations on the final status of the Middle East peace process, holding a separate peace conference in Moscow, and reaffirming Israel’s obligations under international law and previous agreements.

It demands that Israel, as the occupying power, immediately cease settlement activities, evacuate settlers from the Occupied Palestinian Territories, and halt demographic and territorial changes in East Jerusalem, Gaza, and other areas.

The resolution reiterates the illegality of acquiring land by force and highlights how such actions undermine a two-state solution. Additionally, it calls for an immediate cessation of violence, including military attacks, destruction, and terrorism.

The UN also urged its members to continue providing economic, humanitarian, and technical assistance to the Palestinian people and the Palestinian Authority, emphasizing the dire situation in Gaza.

Citing the International Court of Justice (ICJ), the resolution reaffirmed Israel’s obligation to “fully compensate” for damages caused by its unlawful acts.

Resolution on the Golan Heights

Separately, the General Assembly adopted a resolution demanding Israel’s withdrawal from the occupied Golan Heights, with 97 votes in favor, 8 against, and 64 abstentions. This resolution, sponsored by countries including Egypt, Lebanon, and South Africa, stresses that territorial acquisition by force violates international law and the UN Charter.

The document denounces Israel’s settlement activities in the Golan Heights as illegal and highlights its failure to comply with UN Security Council Resolution 497, adopted in 1981. The resolution asserts that Israel’s continued occupation constitutes de facto annexation and impedes comprehensive peace in the region.

The General Assembly urged Israel to resume negotiations with Syria and Lebanon and reiterated the demand for its withdrawal from the Golan Heights under relevant UN Security Council resolutions. It also expressed concern over the stalled Syrian peace process and called for its revival.

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Flights resume between Iran and Saudi Arabia after nine-tear hiatus

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Flights between Iran and Saudi Arabia, which had been suspended for nearly nine years, have officially resumed with the reinstatement of the Mashhad-Dammam route.

According to the Iranian Students News Agency (ISNA), the first passenger plane from Mashhad landed at King Fahd International Airport (commonly known as Dammam International Airport) in Saudi Arabia. As part of the agreement between the two nations, this route will operate twice weekly, marking a significant step in restoring ties.

Relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia were severed on January 3, 2016, following a series of escalating events:

On January 2, 2016, Saudi Arabia executed 47 individuals, including prominent Shia cleric Nimr al-Nimr, on charges of “terrorism.”

The executions provoked widespread anger in Iran, leading to protests. Demonstrators in Tehran and Mashhad attacked and set fire to the Saudi embassy and consulate buildings.

In response, Saudi Arabia formally cut off diplomatic relations with Iran the following day.

Compounding these tensions, the Yemen crisis, which began in March 2015, further strained relations. The two nations found themselves on opposing sides of the conflict, deepening the rift.

On March 10, 2023, Iran and Saudi Arabia reached a groundbreaking agreement to normalize relations. Facilitated by diplomatic initiatives from Iraq and China, the agreement includes reopening embassies in both countries, resuming direct flights, and streamlining the visa process to encourage travel and exchanges.

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MIDDLE EAST

Organisations waging war against the Syrian army: Which organization, backed by whom, is attacking where?

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The attacks of the terrorist organizations led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which captured the rest of Idlib, all of Aleppo and the northern countryside of Hama in Syria, were followed by the attacks of the Turkish-backed FSA in Tal Rifaat, the U.S.-backed FSA in al-Bukamal and the YPG in Deir ez-Zor. The Syrian army looks disorganized in the attacks, which ‘coincided’ with a period when Russia and Iran, which support the Syrian government, were busy with their own agendas. The Syrian army’s unopposed retreat from Aleppo could have profound implications for Syria’s political future.

So which organizations are fighting in Syria, where and against whom? Which powers are supporting them and why?

1- Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS): Idlib-Aleppo-Hama

Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) is the leading terrorist organization targeting the Syrian army in the battlefields of Aleppo, Idlib and Hama.

The Fateh al-Mubin Operations Room, formed with the participation of HTS and other organizations, launched an attack against the Syrian army on 27 November under the name of “Operation Deterring Aggression”. The groups took control of Aleppo, 310 kilometers from the Syrian capital Damascus, and captured some small settlements towards Hama province. According to AA, the groups also took control of the settlements of Jalime, Alzeka, Beridej, Jubbeyin, Tal Meleh, Kirkat, Mughayyir and Mabtan in Hama, and the villages of Tuwayne, Huwayz, Sheria and Bab Taka in the Gab Plain.

A ‘commander’ from Fateh al-Mubin’s operations room, who requested anonymity, told Majalla that in addition to HTS, Jaysh al-Izzah and Jaysh al-Nasr, as well as some of the groups under the umbrella of the Turkish-backed FSA, such as the Nour al-Din Zengi Movement, the National Liberation Front and the Joint Force, are involved in attacks in the area.

Around 40,000 opposition fighters are involved in attacks against the Syrian army in Aleppo, Idlib and Hama. The commander said that the groups have about 80,000 fighters in reserve, all of whom have received military training in various forms of warfare and conflict, how to deal with circumstances, how to use weapons and how to confront regime forces and their allies.

HTS, formerly al-Nusra, was formed under the leadership of Abu Mohammed Golani, who was sent to Syria in 2011 by the Islamic State of Iraq (ISIS), the Iraqi branch of al-Qaeda led by Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi.

When Golani, the leader of al-Nusra, which had grown rapidly by exploiting the chaos in Syria, and Baghdadi fell out, Baghdadi announced the dissolution of al-Nusra in 2013. In the same statement, Baghdadi announced the creation of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) and declared that ISIL was expanding into Syria.

Meanwhile, al-Nusra declared its allegiance to al-Qaeda, but this did not prevent ISIS from seizing the vast majority of al-Nusra’s human, ammunition, and financial resources in Syria. The crisis between the two organizations also went to al-Qaeda’s central arbitration center, but the crisis could not be resolved.

Because of its links to al-Qaeda, al-Nusra was quickly placed on terrorist lists by various countries. Turkey added it to its list of terrorist organizations in 2014. From 2014, as ISIS spread rapidly across Syria, al-Nusra and other groups were trapped in the Idlib region.

Russia’s intervention in Syria and the Syrian army’s rapid operations to ensure territorial integrity led al-Nusra to unite with other groups. To this end, it announced that it had severed its ties with al-Qaeda and adopted the name Jabhat Fateh al-Sham Front (JFC).

Of course, the ‘break’ with al-Qaeda was only superficial. For al-Nusra’s move came immediately after al-Qaeda’s leadership advised it to ‘do whatever is necessary for the benefit of the jihad in Damascus and to unite with other organizations’. However, even the name changes only resulted in the unification of the SFC with a few small groups.

In 2017, HTS was formed under the military leadership of Golani, along with a few other groups such as the Nureddin Zengi Movement, Liwa al-Haq and others. HTS declared its goal to be “the rule of Sharia and the rejection of secularism”.

In January 2017, a ceasefire was declared in Idlib as part of Astana, excluding ISIS and al-Nusra. However, HTS took advantage of the ceasefire to engage in a confrontation with Ahrar al-Sham, the other main group in Idlib, in the summer of 2017, and suffered a major defeat. Since then, HTS has rapidly expanded and recruited other organizations, either by force or voluntarily, and by the end of 2019 it controlled 95% of Idlib. With around 30,000 fighters, it is the most effective armed force in the region.

2- Turkey-backed FSA (SNA): Northern and Northern countryside of Aleppo

The Turkish-controlled FSA (Syrian National Army – SNA), the most ideologically mixed front organization, is the military organization of the Coalition of Syrian Opposition and Revolutionary Forces (SMDK). They also have a government called the ‘Syrian Interim Government’.

There are dozens of organizations within the SNA, such as Faylaq al-Sham, Jaish al-Ahrar, Jaish al-Nasr, Ahrar al-Sham, Nour al-Din Zengi. Many of these organization are known to have received military and financial support from the CIA-controlled Military Operations Coordination Room and Gulf states in the past.

While some of the SNA-affiliated organizations took part in the HTS-led Aleppo offensive, some of them captured the Tal Rifaat district center as part of Operation Dawn of Freedom launched against the PKK/YPG.

According to Majalla, the day after the HTS launched its offensive, Turkey summoned the SNA factions in its area of influence in northern Aleppo for a secret emergency meeting. One of the SNA commanders said that during the meeting an agreement was reached with the Turkish side to expel the YPG from the areas it controls in the neighborhoods of Ashrafiya and Sheikh Maqsoud in northern Aleppo, Tal Rifaat and Manbij in the northern countryside of Aleppo, in parallel with the HTS operation.

3- PKK/YPG: East of the Euphrates in Deir ez-Zor

The US-backed terrorist organization PKK/YPG, which was forced to withdraw from Tel Rifaat after the Turkish-backed FSA attack, has launched an attack to drive the Syrian army out of 7 villages in Deir ez-Zor province, east of the Euphrates.

According to AA, the PKK/YPG launched an offensive against the Syrian army in the villages of Murrat, Hashsham, Mazlum, Tabiya, Husseiniye, Salihiyyah and Hatlah, and clashes are ongoing.

The Syrian army is known to be present in the area from Deir ez-Zor city center to al-Bukamal district near the Syrian-Iraqi border.

The PKK/YPG occupy almost all of Deir ez-Zor east of the Euphrates River, while the center of the province and other rural areas are under the control of the Syrian army.

4- US-backed FSA: Iraqi border in Deir ez-Zor

The U.S.-backed FSA launched an attack on the towns of al-Bukamal and Meyadin in Tanf, where US forces are stationed in the Syrian provinces of Homs and Deir ez-Zor.

The aim of these attacks is to sever Syria’s link with Iraq. Iranian groups supporting the Syrian army are concentrated in al-Bukamal, close to the Syrian-Iraqi border. This area is critical for the land link with Iranian-aligned forces in Iraq.

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