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Where does Türkiye fit into the Syrian equation?

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In its official statements, Türkiye claims it is not involved in the clashes in northwestern Syria, which escalated again on 27 November. However, the participation of elements of the Free Syrian Army (FSA)—referred to as the Syrian National Army (SNA) by Ankara—in clashes in Aleppo on the side of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), along with the group’s entry into Tel Rifaat, indicates that Türkiye is not entirely removed from the situation. Shortly before these developments, Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan criticized Türkiye’s Astana partners for their inaction regarding terrorism and the refugee crisis in Syria, stating: “Where diplomacy does not get an answer, other kinds of steps can be taken.”

On 29 November, Türkiye issued its first official statement regarding attacks launched by terrorist groups in Idlib against the Syrian army on 27 November, which led to the capture of Aleppo and movements toward Hama.

In a statement shared on social media, Foreign Ministry Spokesman Öncü Keçeli attributed the HTS attack on Aleppo to the recent escalation of attacks in Idlib. While avoiding direct references to specific groups, Keçeli emphasized:

“We have made the necessary warnings on various international platforms, stating that the recent attacks on Idlib have reached a dimension that will harm the spirit and functioning of the Astana agreements and cause serious civilian casualties. These attacks must stop.”

He further noted that the clashes have heightened tensions, and Türkiye is closely monitoring the increase in attacks by terrorist groups—such as the YPG, the Syrian affiliate of the PKK—in Tel Rifaat and Manbij. Keçeli expressed concern about the failure to implement agreements aimed at eliminating terrorist threats in these areas.

The next day, Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan reiterated that Türkiye was not directly involved in the Aleppo clashes, stating:

“We will not take any action that triggers a new wave of migration.”

Fidan emphasized Turkey’s vigilance over developments in Syria, particularly the potential for instability to drive another mass migration. Hosting approximately 3 million Syrian refugees, Türkiye has long warned that further conflict in Idlib—home to nearly 2 million displaced people—could exacerbate the refugee crisis.

Türkiye has expressed dissatisfaction with the reluctance of the Syrian government and its Astana partners—Russia and Iran—to address key issues, including the refugee crisis and the YPG threat. According to a report in the Financial Times, Iraqi mediators revealed that Damascus refused to take steps on refugee repatriation, continuing instead to bombard rebel-held Idlib, which has displaced thousands toward the Turkish border.

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has urged Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to cooperate in normalizing relations. However, this process has stalled due to Assad’s demand for a Turkish troop withdrawal and a corresponding timeline—preconditions Ankara rejects. Foreign Minister Fidan has noted that both Russia and Iran appear unwilling to pressure Assad, further complicating normalization efforts.

Syrian ‘opposition’ sources in Türkiye told Al-Akhbar of Türkiye’s position: ‘The war would not have started without its approval, but there may not be a target match between what Ankara wants and what the Syrian opposition wants.”

Analysts said that while Türkiye may not have explicitly approved the HTS-led attack, it would serve Türkiye’s interests and give Ankara more leverage in any negotiations, the FT reported.

Syrian analyst Malik al-Abdeh said: “Since the summer, Assad has had a chance to sit down with Erdogan and work out a plan in which Türkiye would create a zone of influence in northern Syria. He had a chance to negotiate this situation politically while preserving his dignity, but he refused.”

The HTS is listed as a terrorist organisation by the United Nations (UN). Therefore, Türkiye also considers HTS a terrorist organisation. However, it is well known that some elements of the FSA, which is officially supported by Türkiye, have participated in HTS-led attacks.

It is a common view that Türkiye gave its ‘consent’ to the HTS attack in order to pressure Assad over a strategic city like Aleppo and force him to back down from the conditions he had set out for normalisation. Türkiye wants to complete the normalisation process with Damascus, with the main goals being the return of refugees and the elimination of the YPG threat.

However, given that the very name of normalisation has led to attacks by such groups on Türkiye’s assets in Syria, the wisdom of taking this step in pursuit of this goal is debatable.

The HTS is designated as a terrorist organization by the United Nations (UN) and Türkiye. Nonetheless, there is evidence that elements of the FSA, officially supported by Türkiye, have participated in HTS-led attacks. Analysts suggest Türkiye tacitly approved the HTS offensive to pressure Assad into concessions, particularly regarding Aleppo, a strategic city.

Amid these tensions, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi met with Assad in Damascus to discuss regional stability. Araghchi reaffirmed Iran’s commitment to combating Takfiri terrorists and expressed hopes for greater cooperation with Türkiye on mutual security concerns. He noted that while Türkiye and Iran share some common ground, disagreements persist.

Middle East

Hamas rejects partial ceasefire proposal

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Hamas announced its readiness to release all hostages in exchange for an end to the war, Israel’s withdrawal from Gaza, and the start of the reconstruction process.

Hamas’s chief negotiator, Khalil al-Hayya, responded to Israel’s “partial” ceasefire proposals. Hayya stated that Hamas had fulfilled all its obligations under the three-phase ceasefire agreement reached after one and a half years of negotiations. He added, “However, the Netanyahu government sabotaged the agreement before the first phase was even completed and carried out severe massacres against our people.”

Hayya stated that Netanyahu wants to continue the war to protect his political future. He said that Hamas had accepted the proposal presented by mediators during Ramadan, but Netanyahu rejected it and presented a new suggestion that did not include ending the war or withdrawal.

The Hamas leader said that all hostages could be released in exchange for Israel ending its attacks, completely withdrawing from Gaza, starting the reconstruction process, and lifting the blockade. Hayya emphasized their readiness for immediate negotiations on this comprehensive package.

Hayya stated that Netanyahu’s proposal prolongs the war and hunger, and therefore cannot be accepted. He stated that the weapons held by Hamas are a result of the occupation and represent a legitimate right of resistance.

Hayya expressed that Hamas welcomed the view of the US Special Envoy for Hostage Affairs that “the issue of war and prisoners should be resolved together,” stating that this stance aligns with Hamas’s position. He also called on the international community for urgent intervention to lift the Gaza blockade.

US National Security Council Spokesperson James Hewitt argued that Hamas’s statements serve violence, not peace. Hewitt said, “The Trump administration’s terms have not changed: Release the hostages or face hell.”

Israel and Hamas had signed a phased ceasefire plan in January, but this plan collapsed after the first phase. While Hamas sought to proceed to the second phase outlined in the agreement, Israel attempted to renegotiate the terms for releasing more hostages without guaranteeing a complete end to the war. Upon Hamas’s rejection of this proposal, Israel resumed its military attacks and occupation in Gaza on March 18.

Netanyahu is unwilling to end the war until Hamas’s military and administrative capabilities are completely destroyed. This stance is also supported by his far-right partners in the coalition. These partners threaten to bring down the government if Netanyahu ends the war.

Responding to al-Hayya’s statement, Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich said that Israel would not surrender to Hamas and that the war in Gaza would not end until “total victory” is achieved. In a post on his X account, Smotrich said, “The gates of hell should be opened to Hamas, the war should be deepened with the complete occupation of Gaza, the destruction of Hamas, and Trump’s plan for the voluntary resettlement of Gazans in another country should be implemented.”

Far-right coalition partner and National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir said that Israel should increase its military pressure to bring Hamas to a state of “kneeling and begging.” Ben Gvir said, “Hamas cannot dictate terms, it obeys terms! No agreement, no ceasefire, no aid; only the continuation of the war until the Nazi-like elements in Gaza surrender.”

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Israel alarmed by US decision to withdraw from Syria

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Washington’s notification to Tel Aviv regarding its decision to withdraw from Syria has caused concern in Israel. The Tel Aviv administration is worried about Türkiye gaining strategic power in the region.

The Yedioth Ahronoth newspaper reported that the Washington administration informed Tel Aviv that it would begin a phased withdrawal of troops from Syria within two months. It also stated that Israel is attempting to prevent the US from withdrawing its military assets from Syria. The Tel Aviv administration is reportedly trying to prevent this move due to “fears that Türkiye will take over more strategic assets in the new Syria.”

The report noted that US President Donald Trump had previously announced his intention to withdraw troops from Syria, and the Pentagon, which has been working on withdrawal plans for a long time and is preparing to implement them, has informed the Israelis about this.

Israeli officials have “expressed serious concerns,” but this has reportedly had no impact on the US’s decision to withdraw.

Lebanon-based al-Mayadeen television reported last week that the US military had begun evacuating some military bases in northeastern Syria, moving personnel and equipment to Iraq.

According to a senior Israeli official who spoke to Yedioth Ahronoth, the US withdrawal of troops from northern Syria has the potential to increase tensions between Türkiye and Israel and “increase Türkiye’s appetite to control more strategic military points in Syria.”

The report stated that the US withdrawal process from Syria and President Trump’s remarks about President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan during his meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the White House last week have put Israeli security institutions on alert, and Israeli officials did not find Trump’s mediation offer “reassuring.”

It was stated that Israel’s attacks in recent weeks on the T4 military base in the Tedmur (Palmyra) district of Homs province, where Türkiye was said to be stationed, were carried out to delay Türkiye’s deployment before the US withdrawal, and it was seen as a “race against time” before the US began to withdraw troops.

It is reported that Israel is afraid of the possibility that Türkiye will limit Israel’s freedom of movement in Syria and pose a potential threat to the Syrian territories it occupies in the future.

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Syria may recognize Israel by 2026, claims former UK diplomat

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According to former British diplomat Craig Murray, the Syrian administration led by HTŞ has assured the United Kingdom that they will recognize Israel by the end of 2026.

Craig Murray, the former British Ambassador to Uzbekistan and a human rights advocate, raised a striking allegation on his personal blog. In a post based on British diplomatic sources, Murray claimed that Abu Muhammad al-Julani (Ahmed Shara), the “president” who effectively controls Syria, has assured the United Kingdom that he will officially recognize Israel by the end of 2026 and that ambassadors will be appointed reciprocally.

According to the allegation, this move will be implemented in exchange for Western financial support and the lifting of sanctions on Syria.

Murray stated that the termination of Israel’s occupation of Syrian territories was not discussed as part of the agreement, and that the United Kingdom views this issue as a “bilateral matter.” It was also stated that Shara did not prioritize this demand.

According to Murray, the European Union’s foreign affairs units believe that Shara’s declared council of ministers has fulfilled its commitment to the EU to establish an “inclusive government” at the Brussels Conference on March 17. This commitment included the inclusion of Alawite and Christian communities, as well as women, in the administration.

Murray continued: “However, when looking at the 24-member cabinet announced on March 27, it was noted that 21 ministers, including those in critical ministries such as foreign affairs and finance, were Sunni men, with only one female minister who is both Christian and a Canadian citizen. The minority representatives in the cabinet (one Christian, one Alawite, and one Druze) were limited to insignificant ministries. The Shiite community was not given any representation.”

The former British diplomat described the EU’s acceptance of this picture as an “inclusive government” as a “farce.”

Murray stated, “Shara’s pro-Israel stance seems to have taken precedence over all other criteria.”

Craig Murray, a former member of the British Foreign Office, also claimed, again based on the same source, that Shara receives direct support from MI6 and British special forces. According to Murray, the primary mission of these units is to prevent possible rebellions among the militants affiliated with Shara.

Murray said that the Chechen, Uzbek, and Uighur fighters among these groups are currently satisfied with the “spoils of victory” they have obtained, but may not welcome a move such as the recognition of Israel in the future.

Murray also shared his own prediction at this point, saying that Shara may eliminate the radical elements within himself in the future: “I think that this Western-backed regime will eventually liquidate the most fanatical elements within itself. Otherwise, it seems impossible for him to maintain this balance as both an Islamic fundamentalist and a pro-US/Israel leader.”

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