Middle East
Where does Türkiye fit into the Syrian equation?
In its official statements, Türkiye claims it is not involved in the clashes in northwestern Syria, which escalated again on 27 November. However, the participation of elements of the Free Syrian Army (FSA)—referred to as the Syrian National Army (SNA) by Ankara—in clashes in Aleppo on the side of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), along with the group’s entry into Tel Rifaat, indicates that Türkiye is not entirely removed from the situation. Shortly before these developments, Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan criticized Türkiye’s Astana partners for their inaction regarding terrorism and the refugee crisis in Syria, stating: “Where diplomacy does not get an answer, other kinds of steps can be taken.”
On 29 November, Türkiye issued its first official statement regarding attacks launched by terrorist groups in Idlib against the Syrian army on 27 November, which led to the capture of Aleppo and movements toward Hama.
In a statement shared on social media, Foreign Ministry Spokesman Öncü Keçeli attributed the HTS attack on Aleppo to the recent escalation of attacks in Idlib. While avoiding direct references to specific groups, Keçeli emphasized:
“We have made the necessary warnings on various international platforms, stating that the recent attacks on Idlib have reached a dimension that will harm the spirit and functioning of the Astana agreements and cause serious civilian casualties. These attacks must stop.”
He further noted that the clashes have heightened tensions, and Türkiye is closely monitoring the increase in attacks by terrorist groups—such as the YPG, the Syrian affiliate of the PKK—in Tel Rifaat and Manbij. Keçeli expressed concern about the failure to implement agreements aimed at eliminating terrorist threats in these areas.
The next day, Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan reiterated that Türkiye was not directly involved in the Aleppo clashes, stating:
“We will not take any action that triggers a new wave of migration.”
Fidan emphasized Turkey’s vigilance over developments in Syria, particularly the potential for instability to drive another mass migration. Hosting approximately 3 million Syrian refugees, Türkiye has long warned that further conflict in Idlib—home to nearly 2 million displaced people—could exacerbate the refugee crisis.
Türkiye has expressed dissatisfaction with the reluctance of the Syrian government and its Astana partners—Russia and Iran—to address key issues, including the refugee crisis and the YPG threat. According to a report in the Financial Times, Iraqi mediators revealed that Damascus refused to take steps on refugee repatriation, continuing instead to bombard rebel-held Idlib, which has displaced thousands toward the Turkish border.
President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has urged Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to cooperate in normalizing relations. However, this process has stalled due to Assad’s demand for a Turkish troop withdrawal and a corresponding timeline—preconditions Ankara rejects. Foreign Minister Fidan has noted that both Russia and Iran appear unwilling to pressure Assad, further complicating normalization efforts.
Syrian ‘opposition’ sources in Türkiye told Al-Akhbar of Türkiye’s position: ‘The war would not have started without its approval, but there may not be a target match between what Ankara wants and what the Syrian opposition wants.”
Analysts said that while Türkiye may not have explicitly approved the HTS-led attack, it would serve Türkiye’s interests and give Ankara more leverage in any negotiations, the FT reported.
Syrian analyst Malik al-Abdeh said: “Since the summer, Assad has had a chance to sit down with Erdogan and work out a plan in which Türkiye would create a zone of influence in northern Syria. He had a chance to negotiate this situation politically while preserving his dignity, but he refused.”
The HTS is listed as a terrorist organisation by the United Nations (UN). Therefore, Türkiye also considers HTS a terrorist organisation. However, it is well known that some elements of the FSA, which is officially supported by Türkiye, have participated in HTS-led attacks.
It is a common view that Türkiye gave its ‘consent’ to the HTS attack in order to pressure Assad over a strategic city like Aleppo and force him to back down from the conditions he had set out for normalisation. Türkiye wants to complete the normalisation process with Damascus, with the main goals being the return of refugees and the elimination of the YPG threat.
However, given that the very name of normalisation has led to attacks by such groups on Türkiye’s assets in Syria, the wisdom of taking this step in pursuit of this goal is debatable.
The HTS is designated as a terrorist organization by the United Nations (UN) and Türkiye. Nonetheless, there is evidence that elements of the FSA, officially supported by Türkiye, have participated in HTS-led attacks. Analysts suggest Türkiye tacitly approved the HTS offensive to pressure Assad into concessions, particularly regarding Aleppo, a strategic city.
Amid these tensions, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi met with Assad in Damascus to discuss regional stability. Araghchi reaffirmed Iran’s commitment to combating Takfiri terrorists and expressed hopes for greater cooperation with Türkiye on mutual security concerns. He noted that while Türkiye and Iran share some common ground, disagreements persist.
Middle East
Qatar and UAE LNG tankers go dark in Strait of Hormuz to evade security risks
Qatar and United Arab Emirates liquefied natural gas (LNG) tankers are turning off their transponders in the Strait of Hormuz, shifting their logistical strategies in response to ongoing military conflict in the Middle East and the closure of the strategic waterway.
According to a Bloomberg report citing industry sources and vessel-tracking data, as time and patience run thin for both nations, tankers have begun operating under radio silence to conceal their movements and secure their LNG shipments.
The report noted that neither Qatar nor Abu Dhabi, the federal emirate of the UAE, is subject to international sanctions. Despite this, state-owned QatarEnergy and Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. (ADNOC) are employing these “going dark” tactics to minimize security risks for their vessels and crews transiting the Strait of Hormuz.
Vessel-tracking data revealed that in May, at least four Qatari LNG vessels and four tankers linked to Abu Dhabi-based ADNOC transited the Strait of Hormuz without transmitting tracking signals. Sources speaking to Bloomberg stated that Qatari authorities requested captains of state-owned and chartered tankers to turn off their Automatic Identification System (AIS) transponders when navigating around the Ras Laffan port—the world’s largest LNG export terminal—as well as when transiting or exiting the Persian Gulf.
The implemented security measures extend beyond turning off transponders. Sources reported that vessels have been instructed to transit the gulf in pairs to enhance security, and tanker captains who refused to comply with the “shadow” navigation protocols have been replaced.
Industry sources speaking to Bloomberg warned that the increase in covert transits undermines the fundamental rules of international maritime trade and transforms these shipping routes into high-risk areas.
They emphasized that until recently, every cargo in the LNG sector could be tracked in real time, but these newly adopted tactics have eliminated that transparency.
Saul Kavonic, a senior energy analyst at energy consultancy MST Marquee, commented on the situation, saying: “It is entirely natural for Persian Gulf LNG producers to try to avoid Iranian attacks and consequently adopt shadow fleet methods. This could persist as long as Iran continues to control and threaten transits through the Strait of Hormuz. This practice may continue for a long time even after a peace agreement is signed.”
Following the start of US and Israeli attacks on Iran, the Tehran government closed the Strait of Hormuz, a choke point for approximately 20% of global oil shipments and 30% of global liquefied natural gas.
After negotiations in Islamabad failed, US President Donald Trump announced on April 13 that he would impose a blockade on Iranian ports. In late May, he announced that the blockade was lifted as part of the planned peace treaty process with Tehran.
Middle East
Israeli defense exports hit record $19.2 billion fueled by regional conflicts
The Israeli Ministry of Defense has announced that international demand for military systems manufactured in the country and deployed in regional conflicts has reached unprecedented levels.
In an official statement, the ministry declared that exports of military equipment and weaponry have hit an all-time high for the fifth consecutive year.
According to the disclosed data, export volume reached $19.2 billion in 2025, representing an approximate 30% increase compared to the previous year. The figures demonstrate that the country’s defense exports have doubled over the past five years and quadrupled over the past decade.
Data shared by the ministry indicates that missile, rocket, and air defense systems secured the largest share of military sales contracts signed throughout 2025.
Sales in this sector accounted for 29% of the total trade volume. The ministry noted that the vast majority of these agreements fell into the category of “mega-contracts”—each valued at a minimum of $100 million—and that these large-scale deals constituted 53% of the total export volume.
The Ministry of Defense directly attributed this export growth to ongoing regional military operations.
The statement argued that global demand was driven by results achieved on the ground and the “combat-proven” performance of Israeli-made systems across all fronts, including the “Rising Lion” operation launched against Iran in June 2025.
Since October 7, 2023, Israel has conducted simultaneous military operations across multiple fronts in Gaza, Yemen, Lebanon, Syria, and Iran.
The military equipment and ammunition described as “combat-tested” in the ministry’s report continue to be deployed in active conflict zones, most notably in Lebanon.
Among the defense firms highlighted during this period is the Israel-based company Xtend, which has drawn attention for its unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs).
Systems developed by the company have reportedly been utilized in operations in Gaza and for targeted assassinations. International reports revealed that an Xtend UAV was used to locate Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, who was killed in October 2024.
Earlier in the year, Eric Trump, son of US President Donald Trump, announced that he would make significant investments in Xtend’s technology and support the company’s merger with the Florida-based JFB Construction Holdings.
Meanwhile, airstrikes and bombings conducted by the Israeli military continue to drive up civilian casualties in Gaza and Lebanon. In Lebanon alone, attacks over the past few months have claimed more than 3,400 lives. Thousands of deaths have also been reported in US-backed military operations carried out in Iran.
Studies published in the medical journal The Lancet project that the total death toll in Gaza, when including both direct and indirect fatalities, could reach hundreds of thousands.
During this period, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), which has supported Israel’s operations, emerged as one of the largest buyers of Israeli-origin weapons.
The Gulf nation is reported to have procured billions of dollars in military equipment from Israel over the past five years. According to US sources, the Abu Dhabi and Tel Aviv administrations have established a joint fund to develop and procure new weapons systems.
On the other hand, as Tel Aviv continues to market its air defense systems globally, military tensions along the Lebanese border persist.
Hizbullah kamikaze drones have reportedly targeted Iron Dome batteries positioned at Israeli locations near the Lebanese border. The Israeli military has reportedly faced difficulties intercepting these attacks, with dozens of Israeli soldiers killed in Hizbullah strikes launched since March 2.
Middle East
Report challenges official assessments of damage from Iranian attacks on US military assets
BBC Verify, the verification unit of the BBC, published a detailed investigation on June 1 based on satellite imagery and video analysis that found Iranian retaliatory strikes had successfully hit and damaged at least 20 US military facilities across the Middle East since the start of the war launched against Iran by the United States and Israel.
The findings suggest that the scale and accuracy of Iran’s retaliatory attacks were significantly greater than previously acknowledged by US officials. Some independent analysts estimate that the number of affected bases may be as high as 28.
The military facilities targeted were reportedly spread across eight Gulf countries: Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Qatar, Kuwait, Iraq, Jordan, Bahrain and Oman.
Material losses in the region are said to include three THAAD missile defense batteries, each valued at approximately $1 billion and regarded as a cornerstone of the regional defense network.
Expert assessments also identified at least 42 aircraft that were destroyed or severely damaged, including F-35 fighter jets, MQ-9 Reaper drones and an E-3 Sentry airborne early warning and surveillance aircraft valued at $700 million.
According to military analysts, Iran achieved these results by altering its tactics. Rather than relying on large-scale, high-volume barrages, Tehran reportedly shifted to using smaller, more precise salvos concentrated on high-value infrastructure targets.
The shift in strategy was said to have exploited what was described as a degree of complacency within the US military during the early stages of the conflict.
US military commanders reportedly failed to relocate aircraft and other military assets at strategic installations such as Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia despite previous attacks on those facilities, a factor that is said to have increased losses. Commenting on the strikes, Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei declared that the Middle East was no longer a “safe place” for US bases.
The White House had previously claimed that Iran’s military capabilities had been almost entirely eliminated.
However, the Pentagon’s latest estimates place the cost of the war at $29 billion.
A substantial portion of that expenditure is reportedly being directed toward repairing heavily damaged military equipment and replenishing significantly depleted munitions stockpiles. Former military officials have warned that damaged air defense systems in the region “cannot be replaced quickly or easily.”
The heavy consumption of interceptor missiles during the conflict has also left other US facilities across the Gulf increasingly vulnerable to future Iranian precision-guided missile attacks, according to the assessments cited.
The Washington administration is also reported to have sought restrictions on satellite imagery providers in an effort to conceal the extent of the damage and limit criticism.
However, the “smoking craters” and flattened aircraft hangars featured in the BBC report appear to contradict official US assertions, illustrating what the report described as the true scale of the destruction on the ground.
Iran also announced that it struck a US air base in Kuwait with missiles and drones on Sunday night in retaliation for attacks by US forces on Iranian military targets over the weekend, which Tehran said constituted a violation of the ceasefire.
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