According to shipping data showing how the trade war initiated by the US against China has spread to energy cooperation, China’s imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the US have completely stopped for over 10 weeks.

According to data reported by the Financial Times, no other shipments have been made between the two countries since a 69,000-ton LNG tanker from Corpus Christi, Texas, reached the southern Fujian province on February 6.

A second tanker was diverted to Bangladesh after it could not arrive before China imposed a 15% tariff on US LNG on February 10. The tariff has since risen to 49%, making US gas uneconomical for Chinese buyers for the foreseeable future.

The freezing of US LNG is a repeat of the import ban that lasted over a year during Donald Trump’s first term.

However, according to experts, the impact of this situation will strengthen China’s energy relationship with Russia and raise questions about the massive expansion of multi-billion dollar liquefied natural gas terminals underway in the US and Mexico.

Anne-Sophie Corbeau, a gas expert at the Columbia University Global Energy Policy Center, told the Financial Times, “There will be long-term consequences.” She added, “I don’t think Chinese LNG importers will sign a new LNG contract from the US.”

Since Russia’s intervention in Ukraine, China has imported a relatively low portion of its LNG from the US, and Chinese buyers preferred to resell the gas to Europe for profit. Last year, only 6% of China’s LNG came from the US, which was lower than the peak level of 11% in 2021.

However, according to Kpler data, Chinese companies like PetroChina and Sinopec have signed 13 long-term contracts to buy LNG from US terminals, some extending until 2049.

Such long-term agreements were crucial for the realization of large LNG projects in the US, but Corbeau said developers have recently been trying to renegotiate terms to account for rising inflation and costs resulting from US tariffs.

Gillian Boccara, an analyst at Kpler, said she saw no reason for trade between the two countries to resume in the short term.

Boccara said, “When this last happened, there was a complete halt until Chinese authorities granted exemptions to companies, but that was during a period when gas demand was booming.” She added, “Now we are facing lower economic growth, and we think the Chinese can withstand the loss of these cargoes for a long time.”

China’s Ambassador to Russia, Zhang Hanhui, said in a statement earlier this week that China would likely increase Russian LNG imports. “I am sure there are many buyers. So many buyers are asking the embassy to help establish contact with Russian suppliers that I think there will definitely be more (imports),” he said.

Russia has become China’s third-largest LNG supplier after Australia and Qatar; the two countries are also negotiating for a new natural gas pipeline, Power of Siberia 2.

Richard Bronze from energy consultancy Energy Aspects said, “With tariffs rising to an effective embargo level, we will see trade flows reorienting.” He added, “We also expect demand in Asia to fall by 5-10 million tons. This will push gas prices down slightly in Europe.”

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang visited Beijing on Thursday after Washington’s new restrictions on the chipmaker’s sales caused its shares to fall.

Huang’s visit comes at a time when Beijing and Washington are facing off in a tariff war, and Nvidia is one of the US technology leaders bearing the brunt of the trade war. Huang had dinner with US President Donald Trump a week earlier.

According to local media and a person familiar with his travel itinerary, Huang arrived in China on Wednesday to meet with officials and technology leaders to discuss the consequences of Donald Trump’s move to further restrict sales in the country.

According to a post on Chinese state media’s social media site Weibo, Huang’s trip took place at the invitation of the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade, a government-affiliated trade group heavily involved in facilitating US-China business relations.

The Financial Times reported that while in Beijing, Huang also met with Liang Wenfeng, the founder of Chinese artificial intelligence start-up DeepSeek, to discuss developments in the artificial intelligence chip industry.

The post, which showed Huang smiling for the cameras, noted that the visit came after the US President had previously said he wanted to continue working with China.

On Tuesday, the Trump administration announced export restrictions on Nvidia’s H20 chip—a lower-powered version of its artificial intelligence products specifically designed for the Chinese market to comply with US controls.

Nvidia had been under the impression that it could continue selling the chip to China after the meeting between Huang and Trump at Mar-a-Lago earlier this month. The chipmaker had told major Chinese customers such as Alibaba, ByteDance, and Tencent that their H20 purchases would not be affected.

Nvidia announced yesterday that it would take a $5.5 billion hit to earnings as a result of the new controls.

The visit also comes as US lawmakers are requesting information from Nvidia about whether Chinese artificial intelligence group DeepSeek has been able to obtain export-controlled chips.

China’s economy surpassed expectations in the first quarter, driven by robust consumption and industrial production.

According to data released on Wednesday, China’s gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 5.4% year-on-year in the January-March quarter, exceeding the 5.1% increase expected by analysts polled by Reuters.

Xu Tianchen, a senior economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit, described the 5.4% growth rate as “a very good start,” noting that government stimulus had boosted consumption and supported investment.

“In each of the past two years, China’s first quarter has been high, and the second quarter has been low,” Xu said, adding that a “strong and timely policy response” was needed, given the additional pressure from US tariffs.

Exports helped support growth last year, even as a trillion-dollar trade surplus, a prolonged real estate sector slump, and sluggish domestic demand continued to undermine a solid recovery.

Chinese Premier Li Qiang said this week that the country’s exporters would have to cope with “profound” external changes and pledged to support greater domestic consumption.

According to Reuters, analysts are concerned that US tariffs could lead to a sharp decline in the momentum China has gained.

The economy is expected to grow at an annual rate as low as 4.5% in 2025, slowing from last year’s 5.0% pace and falling short of the official target of around 5.0%, according to a Reuters poll. Many analysts have sharply lowered their GDP forecasts for this year.

On Wednesday, ANZ lowered its China 2025 GDP forecast from 4.8% to 4.2% and its 2026 forecast from 4.5% to 4.3%, citing punitive US tariffs.

UBS painted an even more pessimistic picture this week, cutting its 2025 growth forecast for the Asian giant from 4% to 3.4%, assuming continued increases in China-US tariffs and additional stimulus from Beijing.

“We believe the tariff shock poses unprecedented challenges for China’s exports and will also lead to a major adjustment in the domestic economy,” UBS analysts said in a note.

While many other countries are covered by US tariffs, Trump has targeted China for the largest tariffs.

Last week, Trump’s move to raise tariffs on China by 145% led to Beijing raising tariffs on US goods by 125%.

Unemployment and deflation issues

The escalating trade war with the US overshadowed some of the brighter notes in separate data.

Retail sales, a key indicator of consumption, rose 5.9% year-on-year in March, after increasing 4.0% in January-February, while growth in factory output accelerated to 7.7% from 5.9% in the first two months. Both figures exceeded analysts’ forecasts.

The increase in retail sales was driven by sharp double-digit increases in sales of home electronics and furniture, aided by the government’s consumer goods trade-in program.

However, the decline in China’s real estate sector continued to be a drag on overall growth.

Real estate investment fell 9.9% year-on-year in the first three months, widening from a 9.8% drop in January-February. New home prices in March were unchanged from the previous month.

Data released on Wednesday indicated that the economic recovery is still uneven, particularly as high unemployment and persistent deflationary pressures raise concerns about weak demand.

“A good GDP does not represent the overall economic health of an economy,” said Raymond Yeung, chief China economist at ANZ. “Deflation and youth unemployment remain major concerns,” he added.

Broad policy measures required

Moreover, analysts believe that the increase in China’s exports in March—driven by factories rushing shipments to beat Trump’s latest tariffs—could sharply reverse in the coming months as heavy US tariffs take effect.

Analysts expect further support measures in the coming months, following monetary easing steps taken late last year.

Earlier this month, Fitch downgraded China’s credit rating, citing rapidly growing public debt and risks to public finances, signaling a difficult balancing act for policymakers seeking to expand consumption in the face of declining trade.

“The current situation is similar to the negative shocks China has experienced in the past, such as the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and the global financial crisis in 2008,” said Yeung from ANZ.

“We see limited options for Chinese authorities other than a major fiscal expansion to counter the tariff shock,” he assessed.