Europe
German ‘Green Book’ details civilian integration in war preparations — 2
A ‘Green Book’ prepared by the German army, ministry officials, intelligence services, and some private organizations outlines the integration of German civilians into military logistics in the event of a crisis or war with Russia on the eastern front.
The Green Paper envisages extensive repressive measures to prevent sabotage and ‘general unrest.’
For example, if tensions with Russia escalate, as described in the scenario on which the document is based, it states that steps would not only need to be taken to protect transport routes and critical infrastructure, but also to ensure that the expected burdens on ‘civil society’ do not lead to ‘unrest’ and even ‘political instability.’
This will require extensive work by the intelligence services and closer cooperation with the police and the Bundeswehr. In addition, it will already be necessary to strengthen the ‘resilience’ of the population, i.e., its willingness to endure the impositions of crises and wars.
A year before the Green Paper called for the inevitable civil-military cooperation (ZMZ) to be ‘taught in schools,’ Carsten Breuer, Inspector General of the German Armed Forces, had also called for a corresponding ‘change of mentality’ among the population.
The Green Paper ZMZ 4.0 was prepared by a core team of 20 people, including numerous military personnel, representatives of various federal and state ministries and the three Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution (BfV), and four employees of the consulting firm PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC).
German ‘Green Book’ details civilian integration in war preparations
Critical infrastructure: Railways and bridges are being repaired for the war
According to the Green Paper quoted by German Foreign Policy, in the event of a crisis or war, the transport of NATO troops eastwards through ‘central Germany’ must be secured as a matter of priority.
For this purpose, the border crossings must be accessible ‘without delay,’ i.e., as far as possible unimpeded by traffic jams, refugee movements, or even ‘demonstrations and blockades by peace activists.’
The ‘Green Paper’ then calls for transport by road or rail, taking into account the condition of bridges, as in the scenario of the closure of the Rhine bridge near Leverkusen.
Accordingly, roads, railways, and bridges in Germany are currently being repaired to increase and facilitate military mobility.
Protests against war, blockades, and sabotage
In addition to acts of sabotage, the Green Paper also warns against protests, which could include, for example, the blocking of railway lines.
The same applies to harbors and airports. The authors of the document place particular emphasis on measures to protect critical infrastructure, referring to energy infrastructure such as power stations or substations, but also to communication networks and data centers.
According to the authors of the Green Paper, protecting critical infrastructure against attacks by ‘extremists, terrorists,’ and ‘military special forces operating in secret’ requires ‘close cooperation between the intelligence services and the private sector.’
The possibility of ‘general civil unrest’ and ‘political instability’
The authors of the Green Paper recognize in principle that the deployment of troops and the associated logistical efforts ‘will have a major impact on civilian life.’
This is not just any restrictions on ‘public transport and mobility of the population.’ These restrictions alone could mean that ‘supplies’ to the civilian population ‘can only be maintained to a limited extent or with a delay,’ meaning that the material and moral needs of the German population will be put on the back burner by the possible mobilization.
The Green Paper does not mention other burdens caused by the war, such as the destruction of infrastructure or the huge increase in the death toll. The authors assume, however, that the ‘restrictions’ on civilians will lead to ‘increased demands on the maintenance of public safety and order in the country.’
This is because, if the difficult situation persists, not only is there the possibility of ‘unrest’ among the population, but also the possibility cannot be ruled out that the ‘unrest’ will be deliberately ‘forced and provoked’ to reach ‘a state of general unrest,’ i.e., a state of ‘political instability.’
According to the authors, such a situation must be avoided at all costs.
Police-military-intelligence repression campaign against the population
Accordingly, the Green Paper focuses on comprehensive repressive measures.
For example, it states that it is important to ‘ensure internal security by increasing the police presence,’ but also emphasizes the need for close cooperation between the police and the armed forces, e.g., by establishing and updating a ‘situation report’ on troop transfers, strengthening ‘border control and monitoring.’
If necessary, the military police of the German Armed Forces or the military police of other NATO powers could also be involved in this process.
The authors of the Green Paper attach great importance to the domestic intelligence services at federal and state level (the federal and state constitutional protection organizations).
‘They must quickly recognize disinformation campaigns and propose countermeasures to counter social divisions,’ they say. ‘Systematic close coordination’ between the intelligence services and the German armed forces and police is seen as essential for “detecting and defending against hybrid threats.”
The authors of the Green Paper demand that the separation clause, according to which the police and intelligence services must work strictly separately, be ‘designed’ in such a way that it ‘does not lead to a loss of public security.’ This opens the door to a de facto cancellation of the separation requirement.
Re-education of German society
In general, the authors of the Green Paper propose a comprehensive reorganization of German society as a whole in order to make it ‘resilient’ and ‘resilient’ to all kinds of impositions that crises and wars inevitably bring.
According to the document, resilience requires an intensive ‘vertical and horizontal networking across all levels of government’ in which ‘civil actors’ and non-governmental organizations must be continuously involved, because a ‘resilient society’ is ‘from the local population to the state institutions.’ ‘solidarity of all actors.’
Civilians need to be ‘educated and sensitized’ about their role in this context, ‘creating a collective awareness’ of the need for each individual to contribute.
For example, the document suggests that civilians should ask: ‘How can I strengthen my personal resilience?’ This starts with ‘stockpiling supplies,’ but also includes ‘preparing for shortages’ in general.
The Green Paper states that successful civil-military cooperation depends on ‘participation, thinking together,’ but also on ‘accepting conditions.’ In this context, civil-military cooperation should be ‘practiced regularly with relevant actors’ but also taught in schools.
Europe
EU states hold talks with Taliban in Brussels on Afghan returns
Representatives from 15 European Union member states met with the Taliban in Brussels on June 23 to discuss the return of Afghan nationals to Afghanistan.
A European Commission spokesperson said on Tuesday that the meeting was co-chaired with Sweden. Belgium and the Netherlands also took part.
The Commission stressed that the discussions primarily focused on the return of Afghan citizens with criminal records or those considered security threats.
Talks covered a wide range of issues, including the identification of returnees, the issuance of travel documents and procedures related to their repatriation.
However, Johannes Luchner, a senior European Commission official who travelled to Kabul in January, had previously indicated that the scope could extend beyond convicted individuals.
Addressing European lawmakers at the end of January, he said: “Our primary concern is the return of criminals, but the number of non-criminal Afghans who have received return orders is also increasing.”
Another EU source has now expressed a similar view. Speaking to EUobserver on Tuesday ahead of the meeting, the source said the discussions would also cover the return of asylum seekers whose applications had been rejected.
Earlier in the day, the Commission declined to provide details about the meeting.
As a result, questions remained unanswered regarding who covered the Taliban delegation’s travel expenses, where the meeting would take place, whether women would participate and what the Taliban expected in return for assisting the EU with deportations of Afghan nationals.
The EU and its member states have not recognised the Taliban government since it returned to power five years ago.
Brussels defended its decision to maintain limited contacts with Afghanistan’s “de facto authorities,” arguing that such engagement is necessary to facilitate the deportation of rejected asylum seekers who have committed crimes or are considered dangerous.
A European Commission spokesperson said officials from the Commission and 15 EU member states attended the Brussels meeting, which followed a previous gathering held in Kabul in January.
“The Commission services and Sweden today co-chaired a technical-level meeting in Brussels together with technical-level representatives of Afghanistan’s de facto authorities responsible for return and readmission matters,” the spokesperson said.
A spokesperson for Afghanistan’s Foreign Ministry said the agenda was broader and included the possibility of a future consular presence in the EU, the resumption of consular services for Afghans living there and “the need for confidence-building measures.”
Spokesperson Abdul Qahar Balkhi added that the meeting raised hopes of creating “positive momentum to safeguard the consular rights of Afghans residing abroad.”
According to a European Commission letter addressed to Balkhi and reviewed by Reuters, the discussions would focus on “the return and readmission of Afghan nationals without a right to reside in the EU.”
Europe
EU defence chief calls for integration of Ukraine’s military into European defence architecture
The European Union’s Defence Commissioner, Andrius Kubilius, said the bloc should integrate Ukraine into a future European defence union, speaking at the European Defence and Security Summit in Brussels.
According to remarks reported by Reuters, Kubilius said: “It would be difficult to make sense of things if we did not regard the integration of Ukraine’s armed forces into our defence architecture in Europe as a vital issue.”
Kubilius stressed that Ukraine currently holds a dominant position on the battlefield thanks to the transformation of its military doctrine.
Calling for the integration of Europe’s defence industry and Ukraine’s manufacturing facilities into a single military structure, Kubilius said Ukraine should be fully integrated into the EU’s military market.
He added that the European Commission could present a detailed analysis of the defence market and initial proposals for next steps as early as next week.
At a later stage, the commissioner said, the Commission would propose changes to defence procurement rules and other market regulations.
Kubilius also outlined a strategic objective for the European Union.
He argued that EU member states should spend around €7 trillion on arms production over the next decade in order to surpass Russia in military strength and weapons stockpiles. According to Kubilius, such spending would be consistent with commitments under NATO to raise defence budgets to 5% of gross domestic product.
Urging Europeans to be prepared to bear the cost, Kubilius described it as “the price of peace.”
At the same time, he suggested moving away from the production of highly sophisticated weapons that are difficult to manufacture in large quantities. Instead, citing the example of drones used in Ukraine, he called for a focus on producing “enormous quantities of satisfactory weapons.”
The EU Defence Commissioner also underscored the need to integrate Ukraine’s innovative defence industry into Europe’s broader defence and technological base.
Europe
Hungary blocks joint EU letter backing Ukraine and Moldova accession process
Hungary has refused to endorse a joint letter intended to be sent on behalf of all 27 European Union member states to the European Council and the European Commission in support of Ukraine’s and Moldova’s accession to the bloc.
According to Politico, citing sources familiar with the matter, the letter is required for Kyiv’s and Chisinau’s membership applications to advance to the next stage of the accession process.
The sources said Hungary was the only member state that declined to back the document. Because approval requires the consent of all 27 member states, the issue is expected to be revisited next week.
Hungary, which previously blocked Ukraine’s accession negotiations for an extended period, was led at the time by Prime Minister Viktor Orban. His successor, Prime Minister Peter Magyar, has not opposed the launch of the negotiation process but has insisted on removing the phrase “as soon as possible” from the draft letter’s reference to Ukraine’s accession.
Magyar said Hungary does not support opening all negotiating chapters simultaneously in an effort to accelerate Ukraine’s membership bid.
Explaining the government’s position, he said: “Partly because the ink on the documents relating to the first chapter has barely dried, and partly because this would send the wrong message to Western Balkan countries such as Serbia, Albania, Montenegro and North Macedonia, which have been working for years to become members of the European Union.”
The European Union formally opened the first chapter of accession negotiations with Ukraine and Moldova in June. The process was launched during a ceremony in Luxembourg attended by the foreign ministers of member states and is divided into six thematic clusters covering different areas of legislation and policy.
The opening of the first cluster, which covers core issues including the rule of law, the functioning of democratic institutions and public administration, marks the transition from the preparatory phase to practical work on meeting accession requirements.
The EU’s ambassador to Ukraine, Katarina Mathernova, has said Kyiv could join the bloc by 2030, although the final timeline will depend on how quickly the Ukrainian authorities complete the required legal and institutional reforms.
Mathernova also said she hoped all 33 negotiating chapters could be opened by the end of the summer.
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