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Afghanistan and Pakistan’s uneasy relationship

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Afghan Taliban and the Pakistan rulers are teetering on the brink of a major crisis as trust-deficit between the two complicated neighbors has been sweltering. Since coming into power in August 2021, the Taliban has defied Pakistan as one of its main state benefactor during the fight against the US military, but apparently it’s done so by challenging status of the Afghan-Pakistan border, and providing hideouts to the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP).

Faced with rising violence, Pakistan has now pushed and pursued a tougher line to pressure Afghanistan’s Taliban rulers to crackdown on TTP, but the Taliban is not interested in doing so. Pakistan continues to call on Afghanistan’s Taliban to prevent terrorist attacks coming from their soil. Pakistan’s Interior Minister, Rana Sanaulllah said that the increase in terror activities by TTP should be a concern for Afghan Taliban as well as it is a threat to regional peace.

He stated that terrorism activities by TTP were on the rise in Balochistan and Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa, referring to a recent suicide attack in Quetta that killed four people, including one police officer and wounded 30, mostly policemen. TTP immediately claimed responsibility for the attack just one day after the group called off a shaky ceasefire agreed with the Pakistani government in June. TTP said it launched the attack to avenge the killing of their former spokesperson, Abdul Wali, aka Omar Khalid Khurasani. He was killed in a roadside bombing in Afghanistan’s Paktika province in August.

In first nine months of this year, at least 450 people, mostly security forces were killed across Pakistan, and the officials dismiss the violence as “isolated incidents of terrorism.” Islamabad linked the spike in insurgency to the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan, where TTP have taken refuge and continue to direct cross-border attacks from there.

At the same time, the Afghani Taliban are also scrambling to restore peace in Afghanistan after several deadly attacks ripped through several provinces including Kabul, the capital city, killing and wounding hundreds of people. The recent terrorist attack inside a religious school killed at least 19 students in the province of Samangan, and nearly 30 others remain injured. The casualties could be much higher.

Pakistan, Afghan Taliban and TTP’s relations

Relations between the Afghani and Pakistani Taliban are seemingly indestructible. The TTP had once announced that the group has fought foreign forces along with the Afghan Taliban and stated that many suicide attackers of the group had been killed in the war in Afghanistan to prove the group’s loyalty to the Taliban. On August 15 2022, TTP also congratulated the Taliban on the first anniversary of the withdrawal of international forces from Afghanistan. This was not the stop point as the group has emphasized that it will prove its loyalty to the Afghan Taliban in the future too.

Reportedly, Afghan Taliban since taking power has adopted four questionable steps in support of the TTP that are conspicuously against Pakistan’s security.

1 – The important step was providing TTP a free field in Afghanistan as the Taliban freed over two-thousand TTP members incarcerated in Afghan jails by the previous Afghan government. This could be the likely reason that after six years of relative stability in Pakistan, attacks claimed by TTP resumed and increased in 2021 by 56 percent.

2 – The Afghani Taliban had openly opposed fighting the TTP and instead offered peace negotiations between the group and Islamabad. Under Afghan Taliban mediation, the TTP commanders held several rounds of peace talks with Pakistani officials in Kabul and Taliban encouraged both sides to reach a ceasefire. In May, a ceasefire reached and within the time, both sides blamed each other for violating the terms, until the TTP unilaterally ended the truce on Wednesday.

3 – The most important point of contention and a big matter of concern for Pakistanis is the ongoing refusal to recognize the Durand Line. The Taliban since their first governing in 1966 till today did not recognize as settled the 2,640 kilometer border between the two countries known as the Durand Line.

Taliban top official, Zabihullah Mujahid had once said that the issue of the Durand Line is still an unresolved one, while the construction of fencing itself creates rifts within a nation spread across both sides of the border.

4 – Another significant concern for Pakistan is the openness of Taliban engagement to India, the arch-enemy of Pakistan in the region. Taliban Defense Minister, Mullah Yaqoob had once shown willingness if New Delhi provided military training for the Afghan troops. India, which has suspended its diplomatic mission in Kabul after the Taliban came to power, had just said it wants to complete unfinished development projects in Afghanistan.

Yaqoob is not an ordinary Taliban member, beside the defense minister, he is the eldest son of Taliban founder and supreme leader Mullah Omar. Yaqboo’s call for support from India came as a major blow to Pakistan’s decades-long policy in Afghanistan to have a dependent regime next door. This also doesn’t suit Islamabad’s long-term goal of using Afghanistan for its regional, and particularly its anti-India agenda.

High-level Pakistani delegation landed in Kabul

Pakistan’s Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Hina Rabbani Khar landed in Kabul and met with Afghanistan’s Foreign Minister Amir Khan Mutaqqi, discussing matters of bilateral importance. The sides discussed a range of bilateral issues of common interest including cooperation in education, health, trade and investment, regional connectivity, regional security, people-to-people contacts, and socioeconomic projects.

This is the first visit by any woman minister to Afghanistan since the Taliban regained power following the withdrawal of the US forces. The visit also came amid tension after TTP called off ceasefire with Islamabad raising security concerns about Afghanistan-Pakistan border areas. In April, Kabul and Islamabad were engaged in a war of words after Pakistan reportedly carried out deadly air raids inside Afghanistan following cross-border attacks blamed on the TTP.

Pakistan’s Interior Minister Sanaulllah on Thursday also blamed Taliban for providing safe havens to TTP, a charge Taliban strongly rejected. Spokesman for the Taliban Defense Ministry, Enayatullah Khawarazmi said that Taliban “once again assure” all the countries of the region and the world that Afghanistan’s soil will never be used against other countries.

However, the Pakistani alleges that about 5,000 TTP fighters were hiding in Afghanistan along with their families.

It was also not clear whether security issues were discussed at the meeting between Khar and Mutaqqi. There are reports doing the rounds that Mullah Yaqboo refused to meet Khar despite the Pakistani embassy in Kabul had tried to arrange a meeting between them to discuss security issues and bilateral relations.

However, Mullah Yaqoob’s main dispute with Pakistan is not clear, but there were several border clashes between Taliban and Pakistan security forces since the Taliban came to power last year. Yaqboo had also once said that US drones entered Afghanistan’s airspace from Pakistan and called on Islamabad to stop this.

There was also a brief clash between Taliban and Pakistani security forces this month in Chaman, a major crossing connecting Balochistan to the Afghan province of Kandahar. Chaman and northwestern Torkhan crossing points are connecting Afghanistan to Pakistan and serve as the main trade and transit routes between the two neighboring countries.

Pakistan in doldrums

Pakistan has historically followed a “strategic-depth policy” towards Afghanistan, whereby it attempted to control the country as a political and economic leverage. But Pakistan’s long-standing policy has seemingly failed. Cross border issues, TTP and other stark changes in Taliban’s policy are the examples of that failure.

Taliban had managed to convince Pakistan to engage in peace talks with TTP, stopped border shelling or aggression inside Afghanistan, opposing border fencing, etc.

However, it is important for Pakistan and Afghan Taliban to must revise their policy toward each other because engaging in war will benefit no party and the TTP issue must also be resolved through dialogue.

ASIA

China delays approval for BYD’s Mexico factory amid US concerns

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The Beijing administration is delaying approval for the electric vehicle manufacturer BYD to establish a factory in Mexico, over concerns that the smart car technology developed by China’s largest electric vehicle producer could leak across the border into the US.

BYD initially announced plans in 2023 to build a car factory in Mexico, with intentions to also produce vehicles in Brazil, Hungary, and Indonesia. The Mexico factory was projected to employ 10,000 people and produce 150,000 vehicles annually.

However, according to two individuals familiar with the matter, local car manufacturers require approval from China’s Ministry of Commerce to produce overseas, and the ministry has not yet granted this approval.

Officials fear that Mexico would grant unrestricted access to BYD’s advanced technology and know-how, potentially even allowing the US to access it. One of these individuals told the Financial Times, “The biggest concern for the Ministry of Commerce is Mexico’s proximity to the US.”

According to these individuals who spoke to the Financial Times, Beijing is also prioritizing projects in countries that are part of China’s Belt and Road Initiative infrastructure development program.

Changing geopolitical dynamics have also contributed to the cooling of relations with Mexico. Mexico attempted to maintain relations with Donald Trump, who threatened exports and employment by imposing customs duties on cross-border trade.

Trump also initiated a trade war with Beijing, imposing customs duties on imports from China. In retaliation, Beijing imposed customs duties on approximately $22 billion of US goods, primarily targeting America’s agricultural sector.

Trump’s team accused Mexico of being a “back door” for Chinese goods to enter the US duty-free through the North American Free Trade Agreement. The Mexican government denies this, but responded to US pressure by imposing customs duties on Chinese textile products and initiating anti-dumping investigations into steel and aluminum products originating from China.

The second individual stated, “The new government in Mexico has further complicated the situation for BYD by adopting a hostile stance towards Chinese companies.”

In November, shortly after Trump’s re-election, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum stated that there had still been no “definite” investment offer from any Chinese company to establish operations in Mexico, despite BYD reaffirming its intention to invest $1 billion earlier that month.

Gregor Sebastian, a senior analyst at the US-based consulting firm Rhodium Group, noted, “The Mexican government clearly wants to receive some investment [from China], but its trade relations with the US are much more important.”

Sebastian stated that it would not be “commercially logical” for BYD to currently expedite the construction of a production facility in Mexico, noting that the absence of a robust automotive supply chain would force BYD to import numerous components from China, which would be subject to higher customs duties.

When asked whether US customs tariffs and Mexico’s tougher stance against China had halted the company’s plans, BYD Vice President Stella Li stated that “they had not yet made a decision regarding the Mexico plant.”

Last year in February, Li had said that they would choose a location for the factory by the end of 2024.

BYD reported selling over 40,000 vehicles in Mexico last year. The company stated that it aims to double its sales volume in 2025 and open 30 new dealerships in the country.

BYD sold 4.3 million electric and hybrid vehicles worldwide in 2024 and introduced the “God’s Eye” advanced driving system in February, planning to install this system in its entire model range.

Earlier this month, Tesla’s biggest competitor raised $5.6 billion from the sale of shares in Hong Kong, with the proceeds expected to support its overseas expansion.

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BYD shares soar on promise of ‘5-minute EV charge’

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Shares of BYD, China’s electric vehicle (EV) champion, hit a new record high on Tuesday after its founder, Wang Chuanfu, claimed their EVs can now charge as quickly as filling a car with traditional fuel.

BYD, a rival to Tesla, saw its shares rise by over 6% in early trading in Hong Kong, reaching HK$408.80 (approximately $52.62) per share, marking an approximate gain of 85% over the last 12 months.

The company’s billionaire founder, Wang, stated on Monday that the new charging system developed by the Shenzhen group for BYD’s own EV batteries can add approximately 470 km of range in five minutes.

This claim suggests that BYD has surpassed competitors like Tesla and Mercedes-Benz in fast-charging technology, although the new system depends on several preconditions, including sufficient voltage at charging stations.

There is increasing competition among EV and battery manufacturers to establish faster charging infrastructure to help alleviate consumer concerns about the driving range and charging speed of EVs compared to traditional internal combustion engine vehicles.

According to Chris Liu, a Shanghai-based senior analyst at Omdia consulting, China is estimated to install approximately 460,000 new public EV chargers this year, accounting for about two-thirds of the global total, bringing cumulative units to approximately 2.1 million.

BYD’s recent share price increase comes a month after the company shook the global automotive industry by launching a free advanced autonomous driving system, dubbed “God’s Eye,” which it plans to install in its entire new car series.

These moves put further pressure on Elon Musk’s Tesla and Germany’s Volkswagen, as well as a host of domestic competitors, who have been losing market share as EV sales have exploded in China in recent years.

According to data from Automobility, a consulting firm in Shanghai, BYD already holds approximately 35% of the Chinese EV market. It has an 18% share in the pure battery EV segment and a 56% share in the plug-in hybrid segment.

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China’s AsiaInfo expands with DeepSeek-powered AI

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China’s largest telecom software infrastructure provider says that working with artificial intelligence (AI) startup DeepSeek is helping the company develop its own AI capabilities, which it will use to expand in Southeast Asia, Africa, and the Middle East.

AsiaInfo Technologies CTO Ouyang Ye said in an exclusive interview with Nikkei Asia that the company’s collaboration with DeepSeek began well before it rose to global prominence earlier this year with a low-cost approach to developing AI models.

Ouyang said that AsiaInfo also works closely with other top-tier Chinese large language models (LLMs) such as Alibaba Cloud’s Tongyi Qianwen and ByteDance’s Doubao, but that the rise of the open-source DeepSeek model is what facilitates and accelerates the deployment of the company’s various AI solutions.

“Our telecom infrastructure software solutions for China Mobile, China Telecom, and China Unicom fully support DeepSeek’s model,” said Ouyang, referring to the country’s three major telecom providers. He said that his company was the first in the industry to embed and fully support DeepSeek.

According to research by AsiaInfo and Tsinghua University, DeepSeek’s model performs well in specialized technical areas such as monitoring network failures and optimizing wireless communication performance.

The CTO said that, for example, China Unicom’s Guangdong subsidiary used AsiaInfo’s DeepSeek-enhanced solutions in February to optimize service efficiency. This initiative reduced training costs by 75%, enhanced AI assistant capabilities, accelerated response times by 200%, and increased the efficiency of human-machine collaboration by 40%.

Hong Kong-based AsiaInfo, a leading telecom software infrastructure solutions provider, competes with US-based Amdocs, India’s Infosys, and Poland’s Comarch. Some network equipment makers like Huawei, HPE, Cisco, and Nokia also provide some software services.

In addition to infrastructure software, AsiaInfo also provides business and operations support systems, such as network monitoring software and customer and billing management, including processing telecom billing information for China’s 1.4 billion population.

AsiaInfo is also the largest software provider for China’s 5G private networks, serving the country’s leading energy providers and steelmakers, such as China Nuclear Group and Shougang Group, as well as miners and wind farm operators. Private networks are set up by businesses or organizations to provide on-site connectivity to facilitate services like factory automation.

Ouyang is optimistic that AsiaInfo can leverage AI to boost its overseas expansion, and that 5G private networks are expected to be a significant growth driver in the Middle East, Africa, and Southeast Asia. The majority of AsiaInfo’s business is in China, and going overseas is one of the company’s core strategies for growth.

“This year, the growth potential in the overseas market is quite large, especially in the fields of mines, ports, and energy, where we have more specific domain expertise,” the senior executive said.

AsiaInfo Chairman and CEO Edward Tian previously stated that the traditional telecom market and spending have slowed in 2024, but the adoption of AI and LLMs has become a key growth driver for the company as customers begin to adopt these technologies in their services.

AsiaInfo says its software can run on servers and other hardware from different companies, including Nvidia, Huawei, and Hygon.

While leading Chinese tech companies and government agencies are adopting DeepSeek, some governments, such as Italy, Australia, Canada, and South Korea, are banning its use on official devices.

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