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Afghanistan and Pakistan’s uneasy relationship

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Afghan Taliban and the Pakistan rulers are teetering on the brink of a major crisis as trust-deficit between the two complicated neighbors has been sweltering. Since coming into power in August 2021, the Taliban has defied Pakistan as one of its main state benefactor during the fight against the US military, but apparently it’s done so by challenging status of the Afghan-Pakistan border, and providing hideouts to the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP).

Faced with rising violence, Pakistan has now pushed and pursued a tougher line to pressure Afghanistan’s Taliban rulers to crackdown on TTP, but the Taliban is not interested in doing so. Pakistan continues to call on Afghanistan’s Taliban to prevent terrorist attacks coming from their soil. Pakistan’s Interior Minister, Rana Sanaulllah said that the increase in terror activities by TTP should be a concern for Afghan Taliban as well as it is a threat to regional peace.

He stated that terrorism activities by TTP were on the rise in Balochistan and Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa, referring to a recent suicide attack in Quetta that killed four people, including one police officer and wounded 30, mostly policemen. TTP immediately claimed responsibility for the attack just one day after the group called off a shaky ceasefire agreed with the Pakistani government in June. TTP said it launched the attack to avenge the killing of their former spokesperson, Abdul Wali, aka Omar Khalid Khurasani. He was killed in a roadside bombing in Afghanistan’s Paktika province in August.

In first nine months of this year, at least 450 people, mostly security forces were killed across Pakistan, and the officials dismiss the violence as “isolated incidents of terrorism.” Islamabad linked the spike in insurgency to the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan, where TTP have taken refuge and continue to direct cross-border attacks from there.

At the same time, the Afghani Taliban are also scrambling to restore peace in Afghanistan after several deadly attacks ripped through several provinces including Kabul, the capital city, killing and wounding hundreds of people. The recent terrorist attack inside a religious school killed at least 19 students in the province of Samangan, and nearly 30 others remain injured. The casualties could be much higher.

Pakistan, Afghan Taliban and TTP’s relations

Relations between the Afghani and Pakistani Taliban are seemingly indestructible. The TTP had once announced that the group has fought foreign forces along with the Afghan Taliban and stated that many suicide attackers of the group had been killed in the war in Afghanistan to prove the group’s loyalty to the Taliban. On August 15 2022, TTP also congratulated the Taliban on the first anniversary of the withdrawal of international forces from Afghanistan. This was not the stop point as the group has emphasized that it will prove its loyalty to the Afghan Taliban in the future too.

Reportedly, Afghan Taliban since taking power has adopted four questionable steps in support of the TTP that are conspicuously against Pakistan’s security.

1 – The important step was providing TTP a free field in Afghanistan as the Taliban freed over two-thousand TTP members incarcerated in Afghan jails by the previous Afghan government. This could be the likely reason that after six years of relative stability in Pakistan, attacks claimed by TTP resumed and increased in 2021 by 56 percent.

2 – The Afghani Taliban had openly opposed fighting the TTP and instead offered peace negotiations between the group and Islamabad. Under Afghan Taliban mediation, the TTP commanders held several rounds of peace talks with Pakistani officials in Kabul and Taliban encouraged both sides to reach a ceasefire. In May, a ceasefire reached and within the time, both sides blamed each other for violating the terms, until the TTP unilaterally ended the truce on Wednesday.

3 – The most important point of contention and a big matter of concern for Pakistanis is the ongoing refusal to recognize the Durand Line. The Taliban since their first governing in 1966 till today did not recognize as settled the 2,640 kilometer border between the two countries known as the Durand Line.

Taliban top official, Zabihullah Mujahid had once said that the issue of the Durand Line is still an unresolved one, while the construction of fencing itself creates rifts within a nation spread across both sides of the border.

4 – Another significant concern for Pakistan is the openness of Taliban engagement to India, the arch-enemy of Pakistan in the region. Taliban Defense Minister, Mullah Yaqoob had once shown willingness if New Delhi provided military training for the Afghan troops. India, which has suspended its diplomatic mission in Kabul after the Taliban came to power, had just said it wants to complete unfinished development projects in Afghanistan.

Yaqoob is not an ordinary Taliban member, beside the defense minister, he is the eldest son of Taliban founder and supreme leader Mullah Omar. Yaqboo’s call for support from India came as a major blow to Pakistan’s decades-long policy in Afghanistan to have a dependent regime next door. This also doesn’t suit Islamabad’s long-term goal of using Afghanistan for its regional, and particularly its anti-India agenda.

High-level Pakistani delegation landed in Kabul

Pakistan’s Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Hina Rabbani Khar landed in Kabul and met with Afghanistan’s Foreign Minister Amir Khan Mutaqqi, discussing matters of bilateral importance. The sides discussed a range of bilateral issues of common interest including cooperation in education, health, trade and investment, regional connectivity, regional security, people-to-people contacts, and socioeconomic projects.

This is the first visit by any woman minister to Afghanistan since the Taliban regained power following the withdrawal of the US forces. The visit also came amid tension after TTP called off ceasefire with Islamabad raising security concerns about Afghanistan-Pakistan border areas. In April, Kabul and Islamabad were engaged in a war of words after Pakistan reportedly carried out deadly air raids inside Afghanistan following cross-border attacks blamed on the TTP.

Pakistan’s Interior Minister Sanaulllah on Thursday also blamed Taliban for providing safe havens to TTP, a charge Taliban strongly rejected. Spokesman for the Taliban Defense Ministry, Enayatullah Khawarazmi said that Taliban “once again assure” all the countries of the region and the world that Afghanistan’s soil will never be used against other countries.

However, the Pakistani alleges that about 5,000 TTP fighters were hiding in Afghanistan along with their families.

It was also not clear whether security issues were discussed at the meeting between Khar and Mutaqqi. There are reports doing the rounds that Mullah Yaqboo refused to meet Khar despite the Pakistani embassy in Kabul had tried to arrange a meeting between them to discuss security issues and bilateral relations.

However, Mullah Yaqoob’s main dispute with Pakistan is not clear, but there were several border clashes between Taliban and Pakistan security forces since the Taliban came to power last year. Yaqboo had also once said that US drones entered Afghanistan’s airspace from Pakistan and called on Islamabad to stop this.

There was also a brief clash between Taliban and Pakistani security forces this month in Chaman, a major crossing connecting Balochistan to the Afghan province of Kandahar. Chaman and northwestern Torkhan crossing points are connecting Afghanistan to Pakistan and serve as the main trade and transit routes between the two neighboring countries.

Pakistan in doldrums

Pakistan has historically followed a “strategic-depth policy” towards Afghanistan, whereby it attempted to control the country as a political and economic leverage. But Pakistan’s long-standing policy has seemingly failed. Cross border issues, TTP and other stark changes in Taliban’s policy are the examples of that failure.

Taliban had managed to convince Pakistan to engage in peace talks with TTP, stopped border shelling or aggression inside Afghanistan, opposing border fencing, etc.

However, it is important for Pakistan and Afghan Taliban to must revise their policy toward each other because engaging in war will benefit no party and the TTP issue must also be resolved through dialogue.

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Chinese, Russian troops hold joint exercise targeting cross-border terrorism

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China and Russia have held a joint military exercise focusing on cross-border terrorism, amid growing concern over terrorist attacks in Moscow.

The drill was held on 25 June in a river area near the Heilongjiang Bridge linking Russia’s Blagoveshchensk and China’s Heihe, the Chinese military’s official media outlet PLA Daily reported on Tuesday.

It was the first joint counter-terrorism drill between the neighbouring countries since Russia’s intervention in Ukraine.

It came just days after terrorist attacks in Russia’s southern region of Dagestan on 23 June, in which at least 22 people were killed in shootings at two synagogues, two Orthodox churches and a police station.

In March, more than 140 people were killed in an attack on a concert hall in Moscow, the deadliest terrorist attack in Russia for almost two decades. The Khorosan branch of ISIS claimed responsibility for the attack.

According to the PLA Daily, last week’s joint exercise simulated ‘terrorists trying to cross the border’ to launch an attack.

Chinese and Russian troops used aerial reconnaissance, maritime interception and land ambush to intercept and capture the terrorists during the exercise.

The exercise, which focused on improving intelligence sharing and operational coordination, showed the “firm determination” of both militaries to take effective measures to “combat all forms of terrorism, separatism and extremism” while jointly securing border areas, the report said.

The report also said that the two sides discussed further deepening border cooperation.

This is not the first time the two countries have held joint counter-terrorism exercises. In 2019, China’s People’s Armed Police took part in an exercise with the Russian National Guard in Russia.

According to Tass, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov reaffirmed the two countries’ ongoing cooperation in the fight against terrorism, including on multilateral platforms, during a meeting with his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi in April.

Aiming to strengthen law enforcement cooperation

Last week’s joint exercise follows an agreement between Chinese and Russian leaders during Russian President Vladimir Putin’s visit to Beijing in May to strengthen cooperation in law enforcement and defence, including by expanding joint training and exercises.

The Chinese and Russian coast guards also signed a memorandum of understanding on maritime law enforcement cooperation in April last year.

In March, China and Russia organised a naval exercise with Iran focusing on anti-piracy efforts. China and Russia also held joint naval and air exercises in the Sea of Japan, or East Sea, in July last year.

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Controversial military operations and ethnic dynamics in Pakistan’s fight against terrorism

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In a recent high-level meeting, the federal government of Pakistan announced its intention to launch a new military operation against terrorist organizations. This decision is aimed at eradicating militancy under the banner of Azm-i-Istehkam. Surprisingly, the military leadership has remained silent on this proposed operation, leaving the advocacy to political figures, notably Defense Minister Khawaja Asif of the Pakistan Muslim League (PML-N).

The Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), a significant coalition partner in the federal government, has maintained a conspicuous silence on the matter. Meanwhile, despite the approval from Khyber Pakhtunkhwa’s Chief Minister Ali Amin Gandapur, factions within Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) and the Sunni Ittehad Council have openly opposed the operation. This divergence in political opinion highlights the complex dynamics at play in Pakistan’s approach to counter-terrorism.

The opposition from various regional and ethnic parties, including the Pashtun Protection Movement (PTM), Pakhtunkhwa Milli Awami Party (PkMAP), and the Awami National Party (ANP), stems from deep-seated concerns about the operation’s focus and its implications. Historically, PTI and PkMAP have not been staunchly anti-Taliban. PTI’s leader, Imran Khan, has consistently opposed military actions against Taliban militants, advocating instead for dialogue. Similarly, PkMAP leader Mehmood Khan Achakzai, while ostensibly opposing terrorism, is perceived to have friendly relations with the Taliban, as evidenced by the relative safety of his party members from Taliban attacks.

Significant religious-political entities have complex stances on militancy in Pakistan

The relative safety of certain political groups, like PTM and the National Democratic Movement, from Taliban violence raises questions. Critics argue that this perceived immunity could suggest covert alliances or understandings, casting doubt on the motivations behind their opposition to the military operation.

Jamiat Ulama-e-Islam (JUI-F) and Jamaat-e-Islami (JI), both significant religious-political entities, have complex stances on militancy. JUI-F’s position has been ambiguous since the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in 1979. In contrast, JI, having reaped substantial benefits from the Afghan war, now finds itself sidelined and is striving to reassert its relevance by attempting to align with nationalist sentiments.

The media and sections of the government, particularly those influenced by Punjabi and Urdu-speaking elites, have often portrayed the Taliban as predominantly Pashtun. This narrative has led to the proposed military operation being focused on Pashtun-majority areas, such as Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan. Defense Minister Khawaja Asif’s statement that the operation will target these regions reinforces this perception.

Pashtun-dominated regions reject the notion that terrorism is a Pashtun phenomenon

However, leaders from Pashtun-dominated regions, like Khan Muhammad Wazir of the ANP, reject the notion that terrorism is a Pashtun phenomenon. Wazir points to the involvement of non-Pashtun militants in numerous terror attacks across Pakistan. He highlights the role of Punjabi militants in groups like the Punjabi Taliban, Lashkar-e-Jhangvi, and Jamaat-ul-Ahrar, who have orchestrated some of the deadliest attacks in recent years. Wazir’s argument underscores the ethnic diversity of militant groups in Pakistan, challenging the stereotype of the Pashtun terrorist.

Wazir’s emotional plea for an operation starting in Punjab, rather than Pashtun areas, aims to shift the focus to the diverse origins of militancy. He names several key figures from Punjab involved in terrorist activities, such as Tariq Lahori of Daesh and Maulana Qasmi of Jamaat-ul-Ahrar. By highlighting these figures, Wazir seeks to demonstrate that terrorism in Pakistan is not confined to any single ethnic group.

Doubt on the narration of the proposed military operation “Azm-i-Istekham”

The insistence on a military operation in Pashtun regions, driven by a media narrative dominated by Punjabi and Urdu-speaking elites, risks alienating the Pashtun community. Wazir’s call for international intervention by entities like China, the United States, Russia, the United Nations, and the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) underscores the severity of this perceived ethnic targeting. If the government and media continue to frame terrorism as a predominantly Pashtun issue, it may lead to increased ethnic tensions and further marginalize the Pashtun population.

The proposed military operation “Azm-i-Istehkam” and the political dynamics surrounding it reveal deep-seated ethnic and regional tensions within Pakistan. While the operation aims to eradicate terrorism, its focus on Pashtun areas risks reinforcing harmful stereotypes and overlooking the broader ethnic diversity of militant groups. A more equitable approach, recognizing the involvement of non-Pashtun militants and addressing the root causes of militancy across all regions, is crucial for fostering national unity and effectively combating terrorism. Only through such an inclusive strategy can Pakistan hope to achieve lasting peace and stability.

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Huawei Harmony aims to end China’s reliance on Windows and Android

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While Chinese tech giant Huawei’s recent smartphone launches have been closely watched for signs of progress in China’s chip supply chain, the company has also developed expertise in sectors vital to Beijing’s vision of technological self-sufficiency, from operating systems to car software.

Chinese President Xi Jinping told the CPC Politburo last year that China must fight hard to localise operating systems and other technologies “as soon as possible” as the US restricts exports of advanced chips and other components.

OpenHarmony, developed by Huawei, is widely promoted in China as the “national operating system”.

“This strategic move is likely to erode the market share of Western operating systems such as Android and Windows in China as local products gain traction,” Sunny Cheung, an associate fellow at the Jamestown Foundation, a US defence policy group, told Reuters.

In the first quarter of 2024, Huawei’s own version of the HarmonyOS operating system overtook Apple’s iOS to become the second best-selling mobile operating system in China after Android, according to research firm Counterpoint. It has not yet been released on smartphones outside China.

“Harmony has created a strong core operating system for the future of China’s devices,” Richard Yu, president of Huawei’s consumer business group, said at the opening of a developer conference last week.

Self-sufficiency

Huawei first introduced Harmony in August 2019, three months after Washington imposed trade restrictions over alleged security concerns. Huawei denies that its equipment poses a risk.

Since then, China has stepped up its self-sufficiency efforts, pulling out of the main code-sharing centre Github and supporting a local version, Gitee.

China banned the use of Windows on government computers in 2014 and now uses mostly Linux-based operating systems.

Microsoft derives only 1.5 per cent of its revenue from China, its chief executive said this month.

Originally built on an open-source Android system, Huawei this year released the first “pure” version of HarmonyOS, which no longer supports Android-based apps, further separating China’s app ecosystem from the rest of the world.

Huawei said in its 2023 annual report that OpenHarmony was the fastest-growing open source operating system for smart devices last year, with more than 70 organisations contributing to it and more than 460 hardware and software products produced in the financial, education, aerospace and industrial sectors.

Visited by Reuters, Charlie Cheng, deputy director of the Harmony Ecosystem Innovation Centre, said the aim of making it open-source was to replicate Android’s success in eliminating licensing costs for users and provide companies with a customisable springboard for their own products.

“Harmony will definitely become a mainstream operating system and give the world a new choice of operating systems besides iOS and Android,” he said.

Google, Apple and Microsoft did not respond to requests for comment.

China’s previous efforts to build large open source projects have struggled to gain traction among developers, but Huawei’s growing smartphone market share and extra work to develop a broader ecosystem gives Harmony an edge, analysts said.

Huawei’s Yu said this month that more than 900 million devices, including smartphones, watches and car systems, were running HarmonyOS and that 2.4 million developers were coding in the ecosystem.

“OpenHarmony will need more time and iterations for these developers to feel more confident about working with OpenHarmony,” Emma Xu, an analyst at research firm Canalys, told Reuters, adding: “But the reputation, behaviour and trust that HarmonyOS has achieved will certainly have a positive impact.”

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