Connect with us

ASIA

Afghanistan is not a terrorism staging ground: Taliban

Published

on

The Pentagon has reported that Afghanistan has become a significant coordination site for the Islamic State (IS), also known as the Daesh terrorist group as the group has plans to carry out attacks across European countries and Asia with aspiration to reach the US.

According to a leaked Pentagon assessment report seen by The Washington Post, the IS has been developing a “cost-effective” model for external operations that relies on resources from outside Afghanistan, operatives in target countries, and extensive facilitation networks.

The Post says that at least there have been at least nine specific plots coordinated by IS leaders in Afghanistan, with the FIFA World Cup in Qatar – held last December – as well as embassies, places of worship and business centers.

The number plots, the documents reveal, rose to 15 in February. The documents reveal that the IS has been persistent in its efforts to obtain expertise in creating chemical weapons and acquire and operate drones.

The report also said that IS has taken advantage of Afghanistan’s weakened security under the Taliban to expand its network and operations in the country.

Taliban denies Washington Post’s report on Daesh

The Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan has strongly denied Washington Post’s report, saying that Daesh has no place inside Afghanistan.

Taliban’s head of Qatar-based Political Office, Suhail Shaheen said that Daesh has been suppressed in Afghanistan and the operation continues to further eliminate them.

The report Washington Post’s claimed to have obtained, is not according to the ground reality in Afghanistan and the report has content based on their “personal wish”, he added.

Shaheen said that in fact there is no physical presence of Daesh in Afghanistan compared to the past years during the invasion.

Daesh has been suppressed

A local political analyst, Ajmal Jamalzada said that Taliban are new and the age of Islamic Emirate is around 21 months. “If we see, and the Taliban rule since August 2021, we can easily get an idea that Daesh is not posing any serious threat to the regional countries,” Jamalzada told Harici.

He said that Daesh has been suppressed and it no longer poses threat to Afghanistan as well to the regional countries and behind.

The Taliban has time and again assured the neighboring countries that they will not let anyone use Afghanistan’s soil against them.

“We want to have a good relationship with everyone. We understand their concern. Terrorism is a big issue, but we are firm in the fight against them,” a Taliban official said.

Daesh is not posing a major threat internally and externally, the official told Harici. Speaking on condition of anonymity, he said that a high-level meeting had just been concluded among the top security and defense officials where they agreed to carry out a comprehensive operation nationwide to tame the Daesh rebels.

Taliban doubts Washington Post’s report impartial

The news leaked by the Washington Post is nothing but mere propaganda to show the world that the Taliban is not capable of dealing with Daesh, the official said.

“The US government under Biden rule is not happy with the Taliban despite the fact that we took practical measures in the fight against terrorism. Biden also seized our money,” he said, calling on the US to stop spreading propaganda against the Taliban.

There were tens of thousands of foreign troops before their collapse in August 2021, but yet they weren’t able to eliminate Daesh, he questioned and added that Taliban are not playing double games and will perish the Daesh.

Daesh appeared in 2014 under the very nose of US and its allied forces and the then Afghan government claimed they defeated Daesh, especially in eastern Nangarhar and Kunar provinces.

What we have come to know is that Daesh has now become a new game for the US, the official said. “I call upon our people first to report about Daesh and suspicious activities in their community if there is any. The nascent government of Taliban must stand ready to deal with Daesh before the US play any new game,” he added.

There is now doubt that Daesh is not a big threat as they are being portrayed by the Western media outlets, he said.

He said that the Taliban security officials are not turning a blind eye over the Daesh threat, but the group is not as strong as they are being painted by the media.

The region and the world must not forget that the Taliban had conducted several operations against Daesh in various parts of the country, where key Daesh members were killed and several others were wounded – many more, including foreigners were detained. Women and kids are among the Daesh detainees.

Taliban forces since August 2021 have been conducting raids on Daesh hideouts and assured to continue counter-terrorism operations.

“Unless the world leaders, we don’t discuss and talk rather we took action to perish Daesh,” the Taliban official said.

Kabul wants good ties with world

Taliban Spokesman Zabiullah Mujahid said that Taliban want to have a positive engagement with the world, but the International Community is making excuses to recognize their government.

We are now the government and the world as well as Afghanistan will benefit once we are recognized, Mujahid said, accusing the world of coming up with more excuses all the time to escape recognition of the Taliban government.

“We have good ties with everyone. Our relations have been improved with our neighbors, regional and world countries,” he added.

The world did not recognize the Taliban in the last two years and called on the Taliban to honor the rights of women, and girls and let them go to schools and workplaces if they want to be recognized.

ASIA

How will Trump’s potential tariffs affect Southeast Asia?

Published

on

Southeast Asia is worried about Donald Trump’s threat of universal tariffs and a new trade war with China. Five of the region’s six largest economies run a trade surplus with the United States.

But experts say the situation may not be so bad. The region, which tries to remain geopolitically neutral, saw an increase in gross trade with both China and the U.S. between 2017 and 2020 during Trump’s first presidency. Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand have benefited as companies from China, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and the U.S. have expanded their production bases in Southeast Asia to avoid U.S. tariffs.

Experts say exports and economic growth will take a hit in the short term, but the region could benefit from trade diversion and substitution.

What is Trump’s tariff threat?

The goal of Trump’s trade policy is to bring manufacturing jobs back to the U.S. and decouple supply chains from China. Trump and his advisers claim that China’s trade advantage is due to “currency manipulation, intellectual property theft and forced technology transfer”.

During his first term, Trump used executive powers to impose tariffs of up to 25% on $250bn of electronics, machinery and consumer goods imported from China. Beijing retaliated with similar measures on U.S. agricultural, automotive and technology exports.

Now Trump has proposed a 60 per cent tariff on all Chinese goods entering the U.S. and tariffs of up to 20 per cent on imports from everywhere else.

How bad could it be for Southeast Asia?

According to Oxford Economics, about 40 per cent of Cambodia’s exports go to the U.S., making it the largest exporter in Asean as a percentage of total exports, followed by Vietnam with 27.4 per cent and Thailand with 17 per cent. Thanavath Phonvichai, president of the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce, said the Thai economy could take a 160.5 billion baht ($4.6 billion) hit if Trump fulfils his promises.

Vietnam has the world’s fourth-largest trade surplus with the United States. This imbalance has been growing rapidly as Chinese, Taiwanese and South Korean companies have used Vietnam to avoid Trump-era tariffs. Vietnam’s fortunes could change just as quickly, especially if the U.S. continues to classify Vietnam as a ‘non-market economy’, which requires higher tariffs.

Uncertainty over Trump’s tariffs could cause companies to pause or halt investment plans in Southeast Asia. U.S. companies accounted for about half of Singapore’s $9.5 billion in fixed-asset investment last year, according to the city-state’s Economic Development Board. In his congratulatory letter to Trump, Prime Minister Lawrence Wong was quick to remind him that the United States enjoys a “consistent trade surplus” with Singapore.

Any blow to the Chinese economy will have repercussions for Asean countries that depend on Chinese consumption, export demand and tourism. A reduced appetite for Chinese goods will also affect Southeast Asian suppliers of inputs to Chinese producers. Indonesia, Southeast Asia’s largest economy, will suffer the most because it exports 24.2 per cent of its goods to China, mainly commodities.

Unable to send their goods to the U.S., Chinese exporters may turn to Southeast Asia, where governments have faced complaints from local producers hurt by dumping in metals, textiles, and consumer goods.

What is Southeast Asia’s advantage?

Southeast Asia’s current manufacturing boom started because of the trade war. Over time, analysts expect trade substitution and diversion to outweigh the hit to growth.

“We think a stronger crackdown on China could lead to more supply chain diversion as Chinese companies trade and invest more in Asia,” said Jayden Vantarakis, head of ASEAN research at Macquarie Capital.

“Electric vehicle factories, which some Southeast Asian governments are aggressively pursuing, could provide an economic buffer. Demand for EVs is also growing outside the U.S., so I think there could be a net benefit for Indonesia. Smaller countries that are trying to be carbon neutral, especially as petrol prices get more expensive, will try to take over the supply and buy more electric cars,” said Sumit Agarwal, a professor at the National University of Singapore’s School of Business.

Trump’s promised tariffs could embolden Asean governments to impose anti-dumping duties on Chinese goods, as Thailand did on rolled steel this year. Stricter U.S. rules of origin could also give governments an opportunity to ensure that more high-value parts are produced and assembled locally.

How will Southeast Asian currencies and markets be affected?

Trump’s tariffs could reduce pressure on Southeast Asian central banks to ease monetary policy further.

“Essentially, Trump’s victory is inflationary for the world because of his planned tariffs, so the global monetary normalization or easing cycle will probably not be as sharp as previously thought, including in the Philippines,” said Miguel Chanco, chief emerging Asia economist at UK-based Pantheon Macroeconomics.

Speaking to Nikkei Asia, Chanco said Southeast Asian currencies will not strengthen as much as previously expected, partly because markets are re-pricing the pace of easing by the U.S. Federal Reserve and thus the dollar will continue to strengthen.

Among Southeast Asia’s six major economies, the Thai baht and Malaysian ringgit have been the worst-performing currencies since Trump’s victory, losing 3.2 per cent and 2.9 per cent respectively against the U.S. dollar through Wednesday.

Thai brokerage InnovestX recommended stocks that would benefit from a strong dollar and weak baht. These include companies with significant export earnings, such as CP Foods and Delta Electronics, or tourism-related companies such as Airports of Thailand, property developers and hoteliers.

Governments are already taking steps to reduce their over-dependence on the U.S. or China by deepening ties with other countries and regions and emphasizing their neutrality.

Southeast Asian economies in particular are also expected to focus on building resilience by strengthening intra-ASEAN trade.

Continue Reading

ASIA

Japan’s exports rise despite global risks, boosted by China

Published

on

Japan’s exports rose more than expected in October, driven by strong demand from China and other parts of Asia, despite growing uncertainties in global markets.

Exports increased by 3.1% year-on-year, led by significant growth in shipments of chip-making equipment, particularly to China, according to the Finance Ministry’s report on Wednesday. This marked a rebound following the first drop in 10 months in September. October’s figures exceeded economists’ forecasts of a 1% rise and were also bolstered by increased shipments of medical products to the United States.

Meanwhile, imports edged up by 0.4%, defying expectations of a 1.9% decline. As a result, the trade deficit widened to 461.2 billion yen ($2.98 billion), compared to 294.1 billion yen in the previous month.

This stronger-than-expected export performance has raised optimism about Japan’s economic recovery. Although the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) expanded for the second consecutive quarter through September, the pace of growth has been tempered by the drag from net exports.

“Today’s data raises hopes that external demand will revive in the October-December quarter,” said Hiroshi Miyazaki, Senior Research Fellow at the Itochu Research Institute. “The Chinese government’s stimulus measures have stabilized its economy and reversed the prior decline.”

Exports to China rose by 1.5% last month, rebounding from a 7.3% drop in September, with semiconductor manufacturing equipment exports surging by nearly a third. These gains align with signs that China’s stimulus policies are beginning to yield results, driving growth in certain sectors and boosting consumer spending.

Notably, Japanese exports grew despite the yen’s strengthening against the dollar, averaging 145.87 yen per dollar in October—2% stronger than the previous year, according to ministry data.

The export rebound occurs against a backdrop of heightened concerns about global trade policies. Business leaders are bracing for the potential return of Donald Trump to the White House, with fears that his proposed tariffs—60% on imports from China and 20% on other nations—could disrupt international commerce.

Some regions are already experiencing a slowdown. Shipments to the United States and Europe declined by 6.2% and 11.3%, respectively, in October.

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is closely monitoring these developments. BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda noted on Monday that while the Federal Reserve’s prospects for a soft landing have improved, risks tied to the U.S. economy and their impact on global markets require careful consideration.

The most pressing concern for Japan’s trade outlook is the impact of potential U.S. tariffs. Historical data from the U.S.-China trade war (2018-2019) suggests that a 1% increase in export prices, including tariffs, led to a 0.35 percentage-point reduction in profit margins for Chinese exporters, according to research from Stanford University’s Centre for Chinese Economics and Institutions. A similar scenario could hurt Japanese firms’ profitability, counteracting gains from the yen’s depreciation.

“We are not yet at a stage where Trump’s tariff policy is clearly impacting export volumes or exporters’ behavior,” Miyazaki told The Japan Times. “However, there remains significant uncertainty, and we must continue to monitor the policy stance of the next Trump administration,” he added.

Continue Reading

ASIA

IMF reviews Pakistan’s $7bn bailout

Published

on

An International Monetary Fund (IMF) team conducted an unscheduled visit to Pakistan last week to assess the country’s progress on the terms of its $7 billion bailout package. The surprise visit, coming less than two months after the loan’s approval, has raised questions about the future of the bailout program. IMF staff are expected to present their findings to the Washington-based executive board for review.

What prompted the IMF’s unexpected visit to Pakistan?

Several officials, speaking to Nikkei Asia on condition of anonymity, highlighted key factors prompting the visit. These included a $685 million shortfall in the government’s tax collection target for the first quarter of the current fiscal year and a $2.5 billion deficit in the external financing required under the bailout terms. Compounding these issues was the failed sale of Pakistan International Airlines (PIA), a key component of the IMF-recommended privatisation drive.

While routine IMF program review visits are standard, the timing of this visit—just seven weeks after board approval—has raised concerns. “This suggests significant difficulties in implementing the program,” said Naafey Sardar, an economics professor at St. Olaf College in the United States, speaking to Nikkei Asia.

Ikram ul Haq, a lawyer specializing in economic and tax policy, added, “The reality is that the government’s promises to the IMF have not been fulfilled.”

What were the key issues discussed?

The IMF raised the issue of the tax gap and urged action to ensure that Pakistan meets its annual tax collection target of $46 billion.

Islamabad was also asked to engage with Saudi Arabia and China, the largest investor, to bridge the external financing gap. Promised energy sector reforms and the repayment of billions of dollars of debt owed to mostly Chinese-backed power plants in Pakistan were also discussed.

Another issue was for the IMF to press provincial governments for more funds, such as the Benazir Income Support Programme, which provides a $2.1 billion annual cash transfer for poverty alleviation, currently paid for by the central government.

How does agricultural income tax fit into this picture?

As part of the loan agreement, Pakistan’s provinces missed an end-October deadline to harmonize their agricultural income tax laws with the federal income tax.

The IMF had previously said that Pakistan’s loan agreement would be in jeopardy if agricultural income remained largely untaxed. During the meetings, provincial government officials told the IMF that they would face significant difficulties in implementing a higher tax.

Economist Aqdas Afzal said such a move would face significant opposition from big landowners, who are disproportionately represented in the federal and provincial assemblies.

“Given the weak mandate of the current government, a higher agricultural income tax is unlikely as it could trigger major social and political unrest,” he added.

What assurances has the government given to the IMF?

Pakistan has assured the IMF that it will increase the provincial agricultural income tax rate by up to 45 percent. It has also pledged to meet annual tax collection targets and to continue reforms in the energy sector and state-owned enterprises.

“This is an ongoing dialogue process and there have been discussions [with the IMF] on energy and SOE reforms, the privatization agenda and public finance,” Pakistan’s Finance and Revenue Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb told local media.

Haq, a tax expert, said the government’s primary focus would be on meeting the six-month revenue collection target set by Pakistan’s Federal Board of Revenue, a government agency that regulates and collects taxes.

What are the challenges ahead for Pakistan’s loan agreement?

Meeting tough tax targets and implementing structural reforms are major hurdles for the government to overcome.

The IMF has previously cancelled other loan programmes when conditions were not met. Payments to Pakistan could be suspended or stopped altogether, which would be a serious blow to a country struggling with a sputtering economy.

The IMF is pressing for cuts in government spending.

“Structural reforms are being resisted by vested interests, making efforts to meet IMF conditions even more difficult,” Haq said.

Continue Reading

MOST READ

Turkey