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After the Wagner’s revolt

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The Wagner revolt ended with Lukashenko’s intervention.

Two main views attract my attention. One group is more or less in favour of the following attitude: “Oh dear, it’s Russia, these things happen, it’s no big deal.” Another version of this is: “Do you think that a coup can succeed in a big country like Russia?” The other group is roughly saying: “It is very important, if this military coup succeeds, the Kremlin will fall.”

I too think it is very important, but from a completely different perspective.

Informational non-barriers to the coup attempt

Let me begin by re-stating the following. I have persistently and repeatedly argued that many of the claims made about Russia and used as the basis for intellectual activity in the West do not reflect reality. That Russia is authoritarian and totalitarian, the Russian people are warlike (or war-averse), the Russian leadership is Russian nationalist are completely wrong. They are not objective, but fabricated, distorted views about society, state and politics. These are pseudosciences, just like “Kremlinology”, which was all the craze during the Soviet Union (and is now being stewed again), and even if they sometimes offer seminal propositions, their foundations are too flimsy to be taken seriously.

In reality, Russian society is uniquely open. Paul Craig Roberts, Reagan’s undersecretary of the treasury, said as much at the turn of the millennium. Despite widespread intellectual and cultural degeneration, there is sometimes a naive hunger for information. The issue is not the claim that “there are no barriers to information in the information age”. What I mean is that there is a qualitative difference in the quantity of those who need the flow of information. In Western societies, there is more “many-sidedness” and more of it is not needed, but it is certainly intra-systemic. In Russia, no matter how much many-sidedness there is, more of it is sought.

The events of yesterday confirmed this observation. A continuous and multidirectional flow of information, the like of which is impossible to find elsewhere: anyone who wished could find any opinion he wanted on the telegram channels, on the websites and even on the television screens, and, moreover, the audio, video, and written messages of Prigozhin, who had been declared a traitor only in the morning, were widely circulated. So too were the calls to subdue and even destroy the Wagnerians at the point of the bayonet.

Unpredictable spontaneity

The history of Russia is full of spontaneous, sudden, and unpredictable upheavals. Almost all the social, political, military, etc. movements that have shaken Russia have been completely unpredictable and spontaneous. There is one single and great exception: The October Revolution.

Unpredictability does not mean political independence of the actors. On the contrary, actors act by sensing hoe the wind blows and establishing relations with potential allies to the extent that they do not narrow their room for manoeuvre. Considering that the day before he was almost an angel of peace for the Kiev regime, Prigozhin’s action was clearly a digging in the ground for possible relations. The support of the defunct oligarchs, the strange and meaningful silence of the existing oligarchs, the fact that the financial arm of the government, unlike the siloviki arm, carefully avoided statements of support for Putin and played it out over the weekend should be taken as evidence that Prigozhin was digging in the right place.

I actually touched upon this when I commented on Putin’s speech the previous morning.

The reminder of “1917” in this speech may refer to two things: the February revolution, or the Kornilov putsch.

“We know only a single science: the science of history,” Marx wrote. One of the greatest tragedies of the age should be that the left is losing its historical consciousness to a considerable degree. When they think of 1917, they do not remember February, July or Kornilov; all they think of is October.

Putin’s anti-revolutionary stance is well known, but the context of the speech attributes much more to him than that.

If Putin was referring to Kornilov, there is a solid internal coherence, since the Kornilov putsch after the July uprising was the real beginning of the collapse of the provisional government. But in this case, Putin is drawing a parallel between himself and Kerensky.

If he meant the February uprising, the problem is more complicated. February was not just a spontaneous uprising. The uprising itself shows that a state of paralysis of state power had long since emerged, but in the process that led to and resulted in the tsar’s abdication, there was a power conflict that had been brewing since 1915, and behind it was a conspiracy involving the grand prince and a number of front commanders. So, if February is what is meant here, the problem is much more serious.

I will not discuss which assumption is correct.

Spiral history

It is one of Marx’s well-known sayings: “Hegel remarks somewhere that all great world-historic facts and personages appear, so to speak, twice. He forgot to add: the first time as tragedy, the second time as farce.”

How many times it repeats itself is a question mark. This is related to the spiral development of history, each new historical period repeats similar events of a sub-segment in a new, highly degenerated form.

Mussolini travelled to Milan on 27 October 1922. On the same day, in Perugia, the National Fascist Party’s appeal to the Italian people that the “march to Rome” had begun was published.[1] The “squadristi” (squad) marching columns, estimated at 10-30 thousand in total, mobilized under the direction of “quadrumviri” (quattro-four; four leaders of the march). The squadristi began to arm themselves, either by raiding army depots along their route or by volunteers from local army units. Prime Minister Luigi Facta declared that the country was on the brink of rebellion and prepared to declare a state of emergency. On 28 October, the king held talks; despite the army’s declaration of loyalty to the king, he refrained from declaring a state of emergency and dismissed the prime minister. Mussolini opposed a coalition government in which the fascists would participate and demanded the premiership. The squadristi were within 50 kilometers of Rome. On 29 October, the king surrendered to the blackmail of Mussolini. On 30 October, Mussolini and his squadristi entered Rome more or less simultaneously. Mussolini, supported by the army and the grand bourgeoisie, received authorization from the king, and the fascist government was formed. The king remained on his throne, but as a hollow puppet, a straw, impotent scarecrow.

Prigozhin called his action a “march for justice” against “corruption, lies and bureaucracy”. Who could oppose such a demand? Who could oppose the black shirts demanding justice?

A perfect choice of slogan for the fascist movement

As always, history proved Marx right again. Prigozhin appeared on the scene as a runt Mussolini and withdrew, fearing the possible consequences of his action, namely that he would not be able to obtain the consent of the people and would fall into disaster. Mussolini had risen on the promise of raising Italy, which had managed to emerge, albeit muddy, from the mire of disaster, while Prigozhin was a candidate to drag Russia, far from disaster, into the gutter. Mussolini had nothing to lose, Prigozhin had everything to lose.

I should make a note here, which I will refrain from dwelling on for the moment. Let us remember that Zhirinovsky died on 6 April last year. Zhirinovsky functioned as an air cushion from which potential unrest could crash and take the momentum away. His death created a vacuum in politics. All the conditions were ready for the petty-bourgeois rightism he represented to shift to another center. How voluntary it was is debatable, of course, but the nature of things was such that Prigozhin emerged as one of the main candidates to fill this vacuum.

This is how the danger of petty bourgeois rightism, a political tendency that is actually quite close to the left, given the material conditions that created it, evolving into a fascist movement emerged.

Why was it not suppressed? One: fundamental reasons

The question of why the armed forces did not take action against the Wagnerians is a legitimate one. It must be answered from two different perspectives.

The first is the reasons below ground.

It is worth going into detail because the dynamics continue to work.

In his first speech on the morning of 24 February, Putin said that they would not be caught unprepared as in 1941. Let us recall the exact wording:

“We know that in 1940 and early 1941 the Soviet Union went to great lengths to prevent war or at least delay its outbreak. To this end, the USSR sought not to provoke the potential aggressor until the very end by refraining or postponing the most urgent and obvious preparations it had to make to defend itself from an imminent attack. When it finally acted, it was too late.”

This means that the Ukrainian conflict, as I have mentioned in all my articles on the impending conflict from November 2021 onwards, was considered a kind of “winter war.” In other words, it was not planned as an aggressive war at all, but as the only means of preventing a bigger war.

That is, the discourse of “we intervened to stop the war that started in 2014” reflected a genuine, sincere belief, even if its (in)accuracy was debatable. However, the discourse naturally included the emphasis on “we will not make the mistake of 1941, we will not delay”, whereas, as Putin admitted for the first time last autumn in a meeting with women who had lost relatives at the front, they had delayed.

One could argue that this delay has a political content, that is to say: yes, but we were not caught unprepared militarily, which is contrary to the nature of things. The development of the war industry and the output of modern weapons and technology undoubtedly meant preparation, but many problems also arose in the organization of the army in terms of supply, logistics, personnel, troops and command. These problems had to arise; nothing more natural than these problems arising when an army that has not been in combat begins to fight.

The problem is that in 1941 these problems were solved with much greater speed, because the state and society had been mobilized down to the core, because they could be mobilized, because the state did not have to calculate in the face of the bourgeois greed for profit. However, as I wrote in March: “… so many and difficult problems arose, from the provision of equipment for the soldiers to the establishment of unity of command and even the transport of those summoned to their posts, that this dynamic was inevitably transferred to Wagner.”

There is therefore no point in roundabouts and clichés about the general tendency of capitalism towards mercenary companies and how this is a sign of political decay. These clichés seem to say a lot, but they do not recognize that the current situation is not caused by a tendency, but by a concrete and burning problem.

Such are the “experts” on the left. As for the “experts” on the right, who are always on the TV screens in Turkey, they have finally learnt that there is such a thing as a Wagner (although they have never learnt why it is called a Wagner, but one should not expect them to, since each of them is a jar of intelligence, history and politics, and since the jar is full to the brim, it cannot hold much); therefore, there is no need to go into the history of this mercenary company.

In passing, it is worth mentioning the legal side of the matter. According to the Constitution, mercenary labour is prohibited in Russia. But there is a loophole in the legislation, military companies are not considered mercenary companies. They are considered as “private detective and protection activities” established according to the corporate law.

In fact, a loophole in the legislation is a ridiculous phrase; in bourgeois law, the legislation is written for the sake of a loophole. This gap is closed in different ways depending on the threat or advantage.

Two: root causes

Let’s come to the technical, “cyclical” (but not unimportant) answer to the question “Why did this happen?”. I emphasized this several times during the day yesterday.

Firstly, by the very nature of things, no army, except the armies of colonial countries, which are mainly organized against a possible civil war, develops serious strategies based on the possibility of confronting another army (regular or guerrilla army) inside the country. (This is precisely what made colonial countries a paradise for military coups for more or less the entire second half of the 20th century).

Secondly, in the current situation, with probably all the experienced combat troops at the front, in border areas and bases, only the following forces are left to intervene against another armed army inside: police, gendarmerie, intelligence and air force. The Russian equivalents of the second and third are the Rosgvardiya, the Ministry of Emergency Situations, and the Federal Security Service (FSB).

Stopping heavily armed professional units, advancing in tanks and armour, armed with stinger-type air defense weapons and having recently undergone a major combat experience, is very difficult, even if their personnel numbers are relatively small, and perhaps almost impossible without heavy bombardment by the air force. It is necessary to isolate the advancing enemy army from the civilian population. But this, too, is close to impossible, because the situation has developed so rapidly that normal life goes on in a strange, almost surreal way. Civilian casualties are therefore inevitable.

More important are the difficulties of capturing a city that has actually fallen, not of stopping the incoming. Moreover, this city, as in the repeated experiences of 1919 and 1942, is of strategic importance; it is the gateway to the south. The targeting of this city by Wagner points to serious strategic work and recalls tragic historical experiences.

The most important thing is the political consolidation of the masses. At the present stage, this coup army has not interfered with the administrative and municipal organs. It has not even intervened in the military-law enforcement organs. It is enough only to stop them from implementing the orders they have received or to make it clear that it will stop them. Moreover, the coup army has achieved tremendous successes on the front (this expression does not mean affirmation) and these successes have brought it great prestige in the eyes of the masses. Moreover, this prestige has been reinforced by the government itself through television adverts, giant billboards, and praising speeches at official receptions.

In other words, there are all the conditions for a rapid escalation of the conflict, but there are also conditions for keeping it under controlled tension.

These are very serious, deadly problems. No one can easily predict the military and political consequences. It is no coincidence, therefore, that throughout the day, especially from the Russian left, there have been discussions of the possibility of a chain reaction effect of the conflict, which (1) could lead to a moral breakdown at the front; (2) might require a shift of troops from the front to stop the coup army; (3) in either case could lead to a setback at the front; (4) could result in political defeat vis-à-vis NATO; (5) political defeat could lead to internal turmoil, etc.

Independence tendencies

The main subject of my article in March was the following (I summarize it in the roughest outline): There have been many times in Russia when insignificant men have gained enormous importance. Prigozhin is also trying to become an independent political force. This tendency is also gaining strength elsewhere. The process will inevitably end in liquidation.

One of the underlying causes of the capitalist restoration and the resultant localized civil wars in every sense of the word in 1990 was the decision in September 1989 by a plenum of the CC of the CPSU to cede its powers to the union republics: “The most important sentence in the resolution, quoted by Putin, is this: ‘The highest representative bodies of the union republics may, on their territory, protest and stop the implementation of the decrees and instructions of the union [USSR] government.’ It is difficult to find another example of any government declaring its own existence meaningless. In any case, this would mean the disintegration of the Soviet nation.” It meant that Moscow was handing over its legitimacy to someone else.

It is as ironic as it is tragic: It was this decision of the CPSU that brought about the end of the Soviet Union as a state, where, in Putin’s words, “borders were fictitious and decisions were centralized”, but it was Putin’s hesitation to suppress tendencies towards autonomy that has been his method of governing on the ruins of capitalist restoration, while at every opportunity accusing Lenin, who founded the unity of modern Russia, of breaking up “historical Russia”.

Now an upheaval is inevitable. Firstly, there will be an upheaval that will suppress the tendencies towards independence, and this process will proceed step by step, but with determination. It is not only Wagner, but everyone and everything like Wagner, and they are particularly strong in the local organs of power.

Yesterday’s events have clearly shown that if the central authority is content with the function of coordinator among the subordinates, it will disintegrate; the central power must suppress the independent will of the subordinates and make them dependent on itself.

[1] This event is translated into Turkish (and other languages) as “march to Rome”, and into Russian as “campaign to Rome”. Maybe “marcia” in Italian also means “campaign” in our language, I don’t know. But “campaign” better reflects the spirit of the action.

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Can India be a winner in the trade war?

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The repercussions of the new global trade war initiated by Donald Trump continue. In early April, he announced “reciprocal tariffs” on countries worldwide, ranging from 10% to as high as 49%. In this scenario, almost all countries would face a 10% tariff when selling goods to America. However, some specific countries, including India, experienced a special tariff shock. While Trump imposed a 34% tariff on China, for example, he announced tariffs exceeding 40%, almost reaching 50%, for some other Asian countries like Vietnam, Cambodia, Sri Lanka, and Laos. For India, this tariff was 26%. This means that even New Delhi, which had lowered tariffs on thousands of goods, recommended tariff reductions on half of its $23 billion imports, initiated trade talks, increased imports by $3 billion, and created nearly 500,000 job opportunities with over $40 billion in investment, could not escape the 26% (discounted) Trump tariff.

Tariffs are taxes imposed by a country on goods imported from another country. Donald Trump believes that American goods are unfairly tariffed by trade partners, which harms American companies. This is why he announced these controversial new tariffs to level the playing field. He escalated the trade war by increasing customs duties on China, which retaliated with a 125% tariff, to 145% (and announced today – April 16 – that he has raised it to 245%), while giving the rest of the world a 90-day pause. Yes, Trump’s trade war is now a duel between America and China. And now, Chinese President Xi Jinping is on a Southeast Asia tour to take measures against Trump’s tariffs. When elephants fight, the grass gets trampled. Yes, I know; the elephant is a favorite metaphor for India, but in this duel, the question is: Will India be the grass? Or, alternatively: Will it be a winner as a major swing country in the duel between these two? Let me state at the outset what I will conclude with: Frankly, this duel between America and China has opened up many possibilities for all swing countries, but New Delhi is one of the biggest and most important of them. Frankly, Delhi seems to be in a more advantageous position against Beijing, its biggest rival in trade. To be a winner, it needs to recommit itself to that Covid-era reform idea.

While evaluating crises often seems like a facile approach, it is generally a rational strategy in world politics. However, Delhi has not fully capitalized on such opportunities recently. Especially after Covid, many of the promises remained unfulfilled, and there were no tangible results from the proposed agricultural laws and labor codes. For example, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said in 2021 that the government would unconditionally transfer all business areas except strategic ones to the private sector, but there has been no mention of any privatization other than the Air India sale, which has been ongoing since 2017. There is still no word on the long-awaited reforms in the country. The Indian government had proposed a new economic agenda around two ideas: Atmanirbhar (self-reliance) and Make in India (domestic production model). Under this economic agenda, large amounts were allocated to production-linked incentives, and ease of doing business was promised. The first was partially implemented because production stagnated. However, some production-linked incentives were received, the most prominent being for iPhones. In the midst of the US-China trade war, this could strengthen New Delhi’s hand. Apple may now start shifting its production from China to India. This is at least a good example of a “plus one” against China. Taiwanese-based Foxconn has already moved some of its factories in China to India and started iPhone production. When it comes to ease of doing business, yes, India’s ranking has risen, but at a snail’s pace.

At least, given the Trump tariffs, there may be opportunities for New Delhi in American markets where China cannot compete. We mentioned Apple phones as the first example. However, when you look at the list of products Beijing exports to America, it is not difficult to estimate that there will be tens of billions of dollars worth of export possibilities available. The questions are: How quickly can India ramp up new production to turn this duel to its advantage? If customs duties are significantly reduced, is Indian production robust enough to survive? And what does the Indian government plan to do to ensure this? While subsidies are the first thing that comes to mind, they are expensive, and Trump may find them unfair and object. I am quoting the view of the US Trade Representative’s office on this matter verbatim: “India provides a wide range of subsidies and support to the agricultural sector, including credit subsidies, debt waivers, crop insurance, and input subsidies (such as fertilizer, fuel, electricity, and seeds) at both the central government and state government levels. These subsidies, which are a significant cost to the government, reduce the cost of production for India’s producers and have the potential to distort the market where imported products compete.”

Anyway, America was generally a duty-free economy, which provides Delhi with a $45 billion trade surplus. It is also true that America produces very little that it can export to India. The top two items in the export basket are mineral oils and precious stones. Manufactured goods, machinery and appliances, electrical, and optical equipment have a value of less than $8 billion. In contrast, India exports electrical and pharmaceutical products, which are the top two products on the export list, and the value of these products is more than three times higher, at $26.5 billion. Most of the rest that Delhi buys from America are agricultural products. This is exactly what Trump wants to boost. This directly benefits his farmer base as well. Everything Delhi grows on farms, from walnuts to edible oil, is tariffed at significant rates. Fish, meat, and dairy products are taxed so high that it is almost impossible for America to export them. And this is the only thing America produces in exportable surpluses.

The trade issue seems to be almost entirely limited to manufacturing and agricultural products, which means that services, which account for about 40% of India’s exports to America, are not included. Since none of them cross the border, they are not subject to customs duties. Somewhere in the article, I said that Delhi, which lowered tariffs on thousands of goods, could not escape the Trump tariff. Agriculture is critical for Trump, and Delhi must have realized that it cannot conduct trade by neglecting agriculture and lowering taxes on machinery, boilers, electronic devices, and precious stones, I think. If you look at the India section in the US Trade Representative’s report on restrictive practices of different countries, you can see that agricultural products are marked as non-tariff barriers. Also, the idea that India is an important partner and that the personal friendship between Modi and Trump will bring a special exemption to Delhi is often thought or repeated; however, looking at Trump’s attitude towards his other allies, I don’t think he thinks that way at all. Trump is playing hardball and is very likely to continue playing hardball. Lowering customs duties on non-agricultural goods was the easy part. However, considering Delhi’s traditional insecurities and protectionism, can India open up to milk and meat imports, for example? Furthermore, is milk and dairy production or meat production self-sufficient? Considering Delhi’s production protectionism and historical hesitations regarding agriculture, its task seems difficult. Perhaps the opportunity for agricultural reforms missed during the Covid crisis deserves a second chance for Delhi, and perhaps this superpower trade war, where its best friend and worst rival are showing their hands, is telling it that now is the perfect time.

Rhetoric such as being the fastest-growing major economy or the fifth largest and soon to be third, surpassing Japan and Germany, and the discourse of a manufacturing revolution that has been said to be coming for the last decade but has not yet materialized – or even gone backward – is certainly noteworthy. However, New Delhi, which seems to have moved away from the hard-won economic freedoms of the early 90s, appears to have returned to the belief that growth can be achieved through top-down methods. Higher tariffs have been seen returning in the last decade. You might be buying the world’s most expensive steel from India, for example. In the late 90s, the finance minister of the time said he had brought tariffs down to almost ASEAN levels. Increasingly powerful oligarchs are dividing market share and sectors. Does it work? Is the idea that state patronage will lead India to a manufacturing and export utopia coming to fruition? Take a look at government data: Despite the Make in India domestic production model, where Delhi invested over $26 billion in strategically important sectors to benefit from the exodus from China, the share of manufacturing in the Indian economy has declined compared to the service and agricultural sectors. Or, after the 10-year period of the Make in India initiative, you see that the share of manufacturing in India’s GDP in 2023-24 is exactly the same as in 2013-14: 17.3%. And it tends to be even lower this year. The contribution of manufacturing to job creation was slightly lower in 2022-23 compared to 2013-14; it was 10.6% in 2022-23 while it was 11.6% in 2013-14. Furthermore, while the real success in smartphone production may deserve celebration, the share of exports in its GDP has fallen from 25% in 2013-14 to 22.7% currently. Consequently, the growth rate of Delhi’s share in global exports has also slowed down.

Praveen Khandelwal, a Delhi-based businessman and ruling party member of parliament known for his lobbying activities, may be saying that the high tariff imposed on imports from China to America presents a significant opportunity for India’s trade and industry, and that they want to use this advantage against Beijing in most sectors, including electronics, auto parts, textiles, and chemicals. However, Delhi is dependent on Beijing for parts and equipment, lacks skilled labor, and incentive programs are also insufficient in many sectors where Delhi is competing with Beijing. The Chinese economy, which is five times larger than the Indian economy, is still a formidable competitor. In India’s case, Trump’s tariffs could be softened, or perhaps even completely removed (?); but in return, Delhi may need to offer more than the “tiny concessions” I mentioned in a previous article. It is clear that America expects more than “tiny gains.” While other countries that experienced a special tariff shock are trying to enter into negotiations for reciprocal tariff reductions during the 90-day grace period, New Delhi has already been at the negotiating table with America for some time, but this time Trump is a tough friend. The scale of Indian strategic vulnerability will be revealed by time.

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Notes from Antalya: At least there’s dialogue!

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After spending three days at the Antalya Diplomacy Forum (ADF) as part of the Harici team, I returned with critical impressions regarding both the direction of Turkish foreign policy and the state of the world. Beyond Jeffrey Sachs’s headline-grabbing statement that “Syria was a US-Israel project,” the forum’s most crucial aspect, rather than sensational statements stirring things up, was that global and regional actors – who often struggle to come together or find environments for dialogue – saw Türkiye as a hub in this multipolar world where they could exchange a few words. The number and level of participants helped us better understand the countries Türkiye wants to do business with, and those that want to do business with Türkiye. Ministers and even heads of state from many countries – from the Balkans to the Caucasus, from Africa to Asia – found themselves having tea with counterparts not necessarily considered to be “on the same side.” This sets the ADF apart from similar global diplomatic summits.

A new hub in multipolarity

Whichever panel we attended, the main theme was clearly “multipolarity.” From economic policies to artificial intelligence, from war to the search for trade partners, all discussions revolved around the dissolution of the unipolar world that persisted since the end of the Cold War, and how 19th-century-style geopolitically-driven foreign policy finds resonance today. However, unlike Davos or a BRICS summit, many states that have chosen different paths found a voice at this forum.

For instance, Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze, who made headlines with the “foreign agent” law and faced protests for allegedly steering his country away from the European Union, was sitting side-by-side with Montenegrin President Jakov Milatović, who was explaining how wonderful and easy joining the EU would be. While we were downstairs requesting an interview with the Iranian delegation, whose militias fought alongside Assad in the Syrian Civil War, Ahmed al-Shara [also known as Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, a key figure aiming to overthrow Assad in Syria] walked right past us just a few steps away. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov spoke in an opposite room just a few hours after his Ukrainian counterpart. Even the Foreign Ministers of Armenia and Azerbaijan held a panel discussion together.

Such a scene is not something you encounter in many parts of the world. In this period where the world faces the risk of trade or military conflicts, being recognized as a place where anyone can initiate dialogue when needed is a significant advantage for Turkish diplomacy. When we discuss our regional and global interests with other states, the potential cost of alienating Türkiye —losing access to such a diplomatic middle ground— will score points in our favor in all consultations.

Furthermore, the high level of participation primarily from the Balkans, Africa, the Caucasus, and Central Asia indicates Türkiye’s ambition to become one of the smaller poles that could form outside the Western or BRICS axes. While Türkiye’s early recognition of multipolarity and its positioning accordingly – unlike many Western states – is a plus, not everything is so positive. Although Türkiye’s relationship with the EU gains significant importance during this period of serious security vulnerabilities for the bloc, it was both saddening and surprising that during the forum, Turkic states other than Azerbaijan and Türkiye bowed to the EU’s wishes regarding the TRNC [Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus]. EU states, facing energy shortages and watching their industries shrink after their conflict with Russia, have sought solutions by focusing on Central Asia. Despite their somewhat desperate position, they managed, merely with the promise of investment, to get Kazakhstan to open an embassy in the Republic of Cyprus, and Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan to declare their respect for its territorial integrity. Türkiye “conceding such a goal” [suffering a diplomatic setback] to the EU during a period when its geopolitical hand is strong has opened up debate on how effectively we are leveraging our advantages.

Of course, alongside this, there is the Gaza issue. Netanyahu’s claim that some major powers could be persuaded by Trump’s alleged plan to expel Palestinians from Gaza had turned eyes towards Türkiye before the forum. However, the Gaza issue became one of the most discussed topics throughout the forum. While keeping the issue on the agenda is hopeful, uncertainty remains about whether Trump and Netanyahu can carry out their potentially disastrous plan for Gazans.

One notable detail was the relatively low participation from Western Europeans or Americans at the ADF. Although Stephen Doughty, the UK’s Shadow Minister responsible for Europe and North America, attended, it’s fair to say that the bloc we know as the collective West wasn’t particularly enthusiastic about the ADF. Of course, they have quite a bit on their plate. The Trump tariffs, which stirred things up before the forum, also became one of the main topics at the ADF. The tariffs announced almost hourly on a reciprocal basis put participating ministers and heads of state in a rather difficult position. While many hoped their countries wouldn’t suffer severe damage from the tariffs, they stressed that global trade could grind to a halt.

Jeffrey Sachs was also among those heavily criticizing Trump’s tariff policy. I asked Sachs whether Trump’s policy could succeed in bringing back the industries the US had sent abroad years ago under the pretext of globalization. Sachs replied that the way to bring back industries is not to impose tariffs on 150 countries, but to take steps within the country to motivate companies. He also stated that the US does not have to fight countries like China. Perhaps Sachs delivered his most crucial line here:

“Fortunately, diplomacy is cheap. That’s why we are at the Antalya Diplomacy Forum, not the Antalya Military Forum!”

Between Israel’s massacres in Gaza, Trump’s tariffs, and the uncertainty over whether the Ukraine War will end, a bleak picture emerges regarding the direction of the world. However, not everything is so pessimistic. In his speech, Sergey Lavrov replaced the usual phrase collective West with “Europe and the UK.” Except for a couple of jabs at Biden and Obama, Lavrov avoided harsh rhetoric towards the US. Unlike last year, this time he spoke in English, not Russian. Apparently, Russia now sees a need to communicate its position to the English-speaking world. And this shows us the following: even as trade wars, regional crises, and Israel’s genocidal actions continue to grow worldwide, perhaps there’s a positive shift compared to the last few years dominated by global fears of nuclear war; at least now, there is dialogue!

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The U.S. pressure on Iran: Bow drawn but not yet fully pulled

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On April 9, U.S. President Donald Trump announced to the media at the White House that he had set a final deadline for Iran to reach a new nuclear deal with the U.S. If Iran does not abandon its nuclear weapons program, the U.S. will “definitely” take military action, and Israel will be deeply involved and become a “leader” in this. Clearly, “Trump 2.0” has added more military threat to Iran, but overall, this pressure resembles drawing a bow without fully pulling it—extreme pressure that may reignite the “Pompeo 12 Conditions” set seven years ago.

Trump met with visiting Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, after which the U.S. announced it was holding direct negotiations with Iran. Iran’s Foreign Minister Araghchi confirmed on April 8 that indirect high-level talks would take place on April 12 in Oman, but denied any direct talks as claimed by the U.S.

Analysts believe the summit focused not only on bilateral trade tariffs and the Gaza situation, but also on coordinating a unified stance on the Iranian nuclear crisis. Based on Trump’s statements, Israel is expected to strike Iran if it crosses the nuclear threshold—i.e., acquires actual nuclear weapons—by targeting its nuclear facilities. The U.S. seems to want to keep military action as “Plan B,” exerting heavy pressure through negotiations first and resorting to military means only if talks fail, possibly in coordination with Israel.

Iran, long accustomed to U.S.-Israeli military threats, seems unfazed by this war intimidation. Iranian President Pezeshkian reiterated that Iran “does not seek nuclear weapons,” emphasizing the country’s long-term need for nuclear science and energy. On April 10, Ali Shamkhani, an advisor to Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei, stated on platform X that if external threats persist, Iran may suspend cooperation with the IAEA, expel inspectors, and consider relocating enriched materials to secure domestic sites.

Less than 100 days into “Trump 2.0,” the administration is in full attack mode, waging economic war on all trade partners in the name of “Make America Great Again.” By attempting to open the “Pandora’s box”of disrupting the global trade system, he seeks to force all trading partners back into a corner. While global attention is focused on avoiding U.S. economic coercion and “public robbery,” geopolitical conflicts are momentarily overshadowed.

From a geopolitical standpoint, Trump’s return focuses on two major battlefields: the Russia-Ukraine war and the Middle East, with the latter’s key goal being the subjugation of Iran—a goal unfulfilled in his first term. Thus, the new U.S. Iran policy under Trump centers on threats and coercion, supplemented by engagement and negotiation, with gradually increasing pressure and strategic encirclement, avoiding military action unless absolutely necessary.

Currently, the Trump administration is “riding the momentum,” fully cooperating with Israel to weaken and dismantle the “Axis of Resistance.” Following actions against Syria, Hamas, Hezbollah, and resistance forces in Iraq, efforts now focus on resolving the Gaza issue, with military strikes targeting Yemen’s Houthis, while maintaining pressure on Iran to achieve “Middle East peace under Trump”: expanding Arab-Israeli normalization and isolating Iran—the region’s long-standing anti-U.S. and anti-Israel force.

For some time, the Trump administration has unconditionally supported Israel, using transactional strategies like promoting “clearing Gaza” or “taking over Gaza” to pressure Arab states into aiding Israel. It aims to usher in a “post-Hamas era” and reshape the political and geopolitical ecology of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. At the same time, it strikes Yemen’s Houthis under the pretense of protecting Red Sea routes and portrays Iran not just as a partner but as the master of the Houthis, seeking justification for continued suppression of Iran.

Regarding the Iranian nuclear issue, Trump is displaying a more aggressive war stance than during his first term, publicly declaring “if talks fail, we will strike,” openly supporting Israel in bringing war to the Persian Gulf. The U.S., in collaboration with Israel, is exerting high pressure on Iran, and clearly enjoys three advantages:

First, Iran has suffered major setbacks in over a year of the “Sixth Middle East War,” and its bottom line of avoiding full-scale war has been thoroughly exposed. The “Axis of Resistance” is also scattered and fragmented.

Second, U.S.-Russia relations have drastically reversed. After suffering a strategic diplomatic failure in the Middle East, Russia is now focusing on dividing up Ukraine’s land and mineral resources with the U.S.

Third, although Russia and Iran still maintain good relations, Russia has openly stated that it has no intention of intervening if Iran is attacked.

When Trump first took office in 2017, after half a year of observation and bargaining, he announced the U.S. withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal. At that time, I wrote that Trump didn’t withdraw just for the sake of it. Unlike other withdrawal actions rooted in isolationism, America-first ideology, and anti-globalization/multilateralism, Trump’s move was strategic — “retreating in order to advance.” By dismantling the nuclear agreement, he aimed to start anew or add terms, in an attempt to solve the broader Middle East issue in one go and serve America’s core interests and Middle East policy.

On May 21, 2018, the U.S. State Department proposed a complete “Plan B,” not only to eliminate Iran’s nuclear threat but also to bury Iran’s painstaking geopolitical achievements in the Middle East and reshape regional dynamics and U.S.-Iran/Israel-Iran relations. This plan was essentially a replica of the U.S. strategy toward North Korea — a typical “carrot and stick” approach. However, compared to U.S. demands on North Korea, this plan was stricter, more comprehensive, and far-reaching — aiming to resolve historical and current contradictions in the Middle East and return the region to a relatively balanced framework.

Therefore, Trump’s renewed focus on Iran’s nuclear issue is merely a rehash of old issues, and hasn’t yet reached the high-pressure levels or demands of seven years ago. At that time, the U.S. policy toward Iran was a well-prepared, strategic combination — probably now forgotten by many — known as the “Pompeo 12 Conditions.” It is thus worthwhile to revisit this list in evaluating today’s Trump-style Iran policy.

Pompeo’ 12 Conditions

 In his speech at the Heritage Foundation, Pompeo emphasized that Iran must meet 12 demands in exchange for the lifting of all U.S. sanctions and a full restoration of bilateral relations. Otherwise, Iran would face “the most severe sanctions in history.” These 12 conditions fall into categories, urging Iran to completely abandon nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles, release detained individuals, stop supporting terrorism, and halt interference in the internal affairs and security of regional countries.

The four demands related to nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles were:

-Iran must declare all military nuclear activities to the IAEA and permanently and verifiably abandon them.

-Cease all uranium enrichment, never pursue plutonium reprocessing, and shut down heavy water reactors.

-Allow unconditional IAEA inspections at any site.

-End the development and launch of ballistic missiles, and halt development of nuclear-capable missile systems.

Even from a nuclear non-proliferation standpoint, these conditions go far beyond those in the Iran nuclear deal and aim to completely strip Iran of its ability to acquire nuclear weapons or deliver them via long-range missiles.

The Remaining Eight of the “Pompeo 12 Conditions” and Their Implications

Three of the conditions relate to non-state actors. They require Iran to:

-Immediately cease support for so-called “terrorist organizations” in the Middle East, including Hezbollah, Hamas, and Islamic Jihad;

-Stop supporting “terrorist forces” such as the Taliban in Afghanistan and surrounding areas, and cease sheltering senior al-Qaeda leaders;

-End the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (especially the Quds Force)’s support for “terrorists” and “armed groups” around the world.

The U.S. believes Iran is the patron or ally of various extremist organizations in the Middle East, especially a stumbling block and root cause preventing Palestinian and Arab concessions to Israel. It sees Iran as a troublemaker hindering peace in the region. Thus, resolving the Middle East issue thoroughly must start with Iran.

Four conditions relate to Iran’s relations with regional states:

-Respect Iraq’s sovereignty, allow Iranian-backed Shia militias to disarm, demobilize, and reintegrate into society;

-End military support for Yemen’s Houthi rebels and work toward a political solution for the Yemen conflict;

-Withdraw all Iranian military forces from Syria;

-Cease threats to destroy Israel, missile launches at Saudi Arabia and the UAE, threats to international shipping, and cyberattacks.

Additionally, the U.S. demanded Iran release all “detained” American citizens and those of its allies and partners.

These eight conditions, unrelated to nuclear weapons or missile programs, go far beyond nuclear issues. They show the U.S.’s intent to comprehensively constrain and curb Iran’s military and diplomatic activities in the Middle East and globally. This is a strategic countermeasure against Iran’s regional expansion, which threatens U.S. allies like Israel and Gulf states and intensifies sectarian and ethnic conflicts. It aims to pressure Iran to halt foreign influence and give up the gains it made during its expansion.

As a “reward” for complying with these 12 conditions, the U.S. promised to sign a new nuclear agreement with Iran if it made real, visible, and sustainable changes. It would also lift all sanctions, gradually restore diplomatic and economic ties, allow Iran access to advanced technologies, and support its economic modernization and integration into the global economy.

Clearly, this is the Trump administration’s new Iran strategy—a roadmap to comprehensively resolve the U.S.-Iran and Iran-Israel hostilities and reshape the geopolitical landscape. It includes both the “spiked club” of pressure and the tempting “carrot” of incentives. The aim is to downgrade Iran from a “regional superpower” back to a normal state, as it was before the Islamic Revolution, to eliminate all of the U.S. and its allies’ security concerns.

Iran completely rejected the “Pompeo 12 Conditions,” seeing them as an ultimatum demanding total surrender. To accept them would mean abandoning the grand vision and sacrifices of the Islamic Revolution and returning to a submissive, ordinary state. The Trump administration followed up with more sanctions. But Iran endured until Biden took office—and now again under Trump’s return.

From “Trump 1.0” to “Trump 2.0,” eight years have passed. The nuclear deal hasn’t been revived, and the nuclear crisis hasn’t escalated into war. But the current geopolitical and security landscape is clearly more unfavorable to Iran: it suffered military defeat in the Eastern Mediterranean, lost the strategic western flank of the “Shia Crescent” due to Hezbollah’s defeat and the fall of the Damascus regime.

In Israel’s large-scale raid in October 2024, it successfully opened an aerial corridor from the Mediterranean to the Persian Gulf, launched warning strikes deep into Iranian territory, and exposed Iran’s weak bottom line of lacking will to retaliate symmetrically. Now, as “Trump 2.0” begins, Iraq—the key node of the “Shia Crescent”—faces diplomatic pressure to break away from Iran and rejoin the Arab world. Overall, Iran’s geopolitical environment is deteriorating, while U.S.-Israeli control of Eastern Mediterranean airspace increases the risk of military escalation. The pressure Iran faces now exceeds that of “Trump 1.0.”

Although Pompeo is no longer on the “Trump 1.0 chariot,” the “Pompeo 12 Conditions” reflect the core thinking of Trump’s national security team regarding the Middle East and remain the foundation of U.S. policy toward Iran. Far from being discarded, these conditions may be gradually revived under “Trump 2.0,” tightening the strategic bowstring to pressure Iran toward compromise.

Prof. Ma is the Dean of the Institute of Mediterranean Studies (ISMR) at Zhejiang International Studies University in Hangzhou. He specializes in international politics, particularly Islam and Middle Eastern affairs. He previously worked as a senior Xinhua correspondent in Kuwait, Palestine, and Iraq.

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