Connect with us

Opinion

America of multipolarity

Published

on

The 2024 election year was, in many ways, an existential race that would determine the fate of global power balances. One side of the American electoral debate claimed that if they lost, fascism would descend upon the United States, while the other side warned that their opponents would directly ignite World War III. Sceptics observing the election from around the world echoed the classic interpretation of American politics:

“No matter who wins, America’s foreign policy will not change!”

The man was first tried, then shot, yet somehow survived. With a somewhat comfortable victory, he took control of the entire American legislature.

Donald Trump… Could he ever make peace with the establishment, which he blamed for everything that had happened to him? Now that he held so much power, it was time to settle the score!

As the members of his cabinet were announced, the sceptics’ doubts only hardened. “Look! He’s filling the administration with neo-cons again! What happened to ending wars?”

Former hawkish comments from cabinet members like Marco Rubio and Mike Hegseth were shared widely. To make matters worse, Trump’s aggressive outbursts began even before he took office: “51 Canada, 52 Greenland, 53 Mexico…”

For America, it seemed like the same old story. The establishment would simply repaint blue as red and continue its war plans. There would be not the slightest change in the system! Or would there?

Not quite.

The end of the liberal project

To understand whether there will be a shift in American foreign policy, the defeat of the Democrats must be thoroughly examined. Many attempt to explain the reason for their loss in a single sentence. “The economy, my nephew” and “The Democrats pushed the LGBT issue too hard!” are two arguments that dominate the discourse. Of course, the Democrats’ defeat was driven by a multitude of factors, both large and small, with these issues at the forefront. However, this defeat was not quite the same as the one in 2016.

Trump’s victory in 2016 sent shockwaves through capital, the bureaucracy, and even the politicians who had been part of the race. When he took office at the time, he was unable to pioneer a new project or movement. While his team and cabinet were largely composed of ‘old guard’ Republicans, his battle with capital never ceased. The American establishment refused to accept him. He was unable to implement the policies he desired, particularly on issues like Syria. In 2020, big corporations threw their full weight behind Biden, and somehow, they managed to secure his victory.

However, 2024 was different. From Jeff Bezos to Mark Zuckerberg, many of the individuals and companies that had worked tirelessly for Biden in 2020 were either neutral this time or openly declared their support for Trump. Why? Did they see Trump as an inevitable figure they had to reconcile with? Or did they have doubts about the sustainability of the plan they had once championed? Kamala Harris is not the only loser here… Nor are the Democrats alone in their defeat… The 2024 U.S. elections marked the loss of a project that Barack Obama had inherited from the Republicans.

Around this time last year, I wrote a similar article analyzing 2023 from the U.S. perspective. In it, I described 2023 as “the most difficult year of the empire.” The reason for this was the U.S.’s struggle with over-expansion, driven by its relentless pursuit of global hegemony. Despite its vast resources, it was increasingly unable to manage the crises erupting worldwide. Unless it could address this issue, every passing year would continue to be the most difficult year of its empire.

One year later, Trump promises a scenario of change that will either solve or at least mitigate this crisis.

First, the phrase “trying to be everywhere” requires some explanation. After the Cold War, the U.S. declared itself the global policeman. It wasn’t just going to defend liberalism—it was going to spread it across the world. It aimed to overthrow dictators, lower the defenses of countries it believed it could diplomatically engage through economic ties, and unconditionally support liberal governments it saw as akin to itself. Remember the famous McDonald’s Theory: two countries with McDonald’s restaurants would never go to war! Capitalism and liberalism, hand in hand, would bring world peace.

In other words, the U.S. foreign policy of the unipolar order was entirely ideologically driven. As many would agree, this was a non-partisan plan. George W. Bush continued it, and so did Barack Obama.

However, the Biden era proved that American global hegemony is unsustainable. According to Trump, the U.S. was alienating countries it could have befriended for ideological reasons, while supporting countries that offered no strategic value simply because they were liberal. Take Saudi Arabia, for example. After the Jamal Khashoggi incident, Biden declared, “I will turn them into a pariah state.” Instead, the Saudis aligned with China. Far from becoming a pariah state, they increased their regional influence.

Biden knew that the U.S. relationship with Saudi Arabia undermined the oft-repeated slogan of “Democracy and Human Rights.” For this very reason, he alienated a country that would normally have been an ally. In Afghanistan, billions of dollars were spent on a “nation-building” model—one that had failed repeatedly—under the guise of protecting “women’s rights.” In Syria, through its association with the PKK terrorist organization, the U.S. demonized Turkey, a NATO member with one of the strongest armies in the alliance, for yet another nation-building project.

Of course, these ideologically driven projects did yield some gains, such as access to underground resources, increased regional influence, and military bases. However, when weighing the pros and cons, it’s hard to argue that U.S. resources were well spent. Over the past four years, the Afghanistan project collapsed. The PKK terrorist organization continues to lose territory in both Iraq and Syria. Despite billions of dollars poured into Ukraine, Russia continues to advance, albeit with bruises and scars.

Trump’s solution: Realpolitik

The series of failed policies is compelling the United States to move away from its unipolar foreign policy approach. This shift explains why at least a portion of the American establishment is now repositioning itself. Of course, individuals and entities like George Soros—the direct architect of projects such as Ukraine—are, for the time being, excluded from this recalibration. The new American foreign policy promises the world a “multipolarity with American characteristics.”

However, it would be naive to envision a multipolar world order as a harmonious utopia where “everyone holds hands and runs down the slope.” Just as a dragon or a bear cannot be caged, an eagle, too, cannot be confined. The United States remains the most powerful nation globally, boasting unmatched manpower, industrial capacity, technological prowess, and a unique geopolitical position. Such a country cannot simply retreat within its borders. Even as the U.S. adapts to multipolarity, it does not automatically follow that it will coexist smoothly with China or Russia. Multipolarity inherently brings chaos. Unlike the classical Cold War paradigm, this chaos is not limited to conflicts among global giants but can also erupt among regional powers. This is the lens through which issues like Syria should be understood. Interpreting every geopolitical confrontation solely through the interests of the U.S. or Russia is a relic of Cold War thinking. Multipolarity inevitably creates space for regional powers to assert their interests—countries like Turkey or India, for instance.

To navigate this new order, the U.S. is seeking to establish a governance framework compatible with Realpolitik. Realpolitik, a political philosophy originating in 19th-century Germany and championed by Otto von Bismarck, the architect of German unification, prioritizes pragmatism over ideology. Its goal is to safeguard state interests by crafting a balanced power dynamic. In the U.S., two of the most prominent advocates of Realpolitik were Theodore Roosevelt and Henry Kissinger.

Kissinger viewed the greatest threat to the U.S. as the potential alliance between the “dragon” (China) and the “bear” (Russia). China possessed the manpower and industrial capacity, while the Soviet Union had the energy resources to sustain it. A partnership between the two could have spelled the end of American hegemony before it even took root. Although the U.S. framed the Cold War as a battle of “tyranny against democracy,” its most decisive actions were guided by Kissinger’s Realpolitik. The “One China” policy regarding Taiwan, which remains in place today, is a legacy of this philosophy.

President Theodore Roosevelt succinctly encapsulated Realpolitik with his famous adage: “Speak softly and carry a big stick.”

Roosevelt’s ‘Big Stick Diplomacy’ shaped U.S. foreign policy at the beginning of the 20th century. Roosevelt did not see the United States as the world’s policeman but believed that its own backyard should fall under its sphere of influence. He expanded the Monroe Doctrine, intervening in the politics of South American states. Moreover, it was during this period that the famous Panama Canal was built, thanks to Roosevelt’s efforts. In 1903, Colombia, which controlled Panama, refused to reach an agreement with the U.S. The U.S. fueled rebellions in the Panama region and deployed its navy to prevent Colombia from suppressing the uprising. Panama’s independence was immediately recognized, and construction of the canal began in 1904.

The foreign policy moves of the new Trump era are likely to follow a similar path. The aim is to prioritize U.S. national security interests over the task of ‘spreading liberalism.’ This approach aligns with the principles of Realpolitik. From now on, U.S. foreign policy will be driven by interests rather than ideological impositions.

From this perspective, the rhetoric Trump launched even before taking office makes more sense.

Trump wants to end the war in Ukraine to prevent a ‘dragon-bear’ friendship. Trump wants Greenland to control the trade routes expected to emerge as glaciers melt due to global warming. Trump is considering action against Mexico because he believes China, through the cartels, is attacking the United States via drug trafficking. Trump wants Panama to establish a barrier at the most strategic point to South America, where China is consolidating its influence.

Don’t get me wrong—Trump is no Roosevelt. Roosevelt was a highly popular president in the U.S., and many still regard him as one of the greatest in American history. Trump’s domestic political battles began even before he took office, and it is unlikely that a figure like Kissinger will emerge on his side.

However, the U.S. bureaucracy has already prepared itself for Kissinger-like policies. The clearest evidence of this is Trump’s emphasis on tariffs. These tariffs, which will be imposed not only on China but also on ‘allied’ countries like Canada, are likely to exacerbate the U.S. inflation problem, which is already in a precarious state. If Trump implements the tariffs as he has proposed, it will become clear that this decision was made without regard for electoral consequences or public reaction. If the U.S. is entering a struggle with China, it cannot afford to lose its industrial base there. The return of industry, especially microchip manufacturing, to the U.S. is far more important for the country than the careers of politicians or the votes they seek.

This is precisely why I disagree with the claim that ‘U.S. foreign policy will not change.’ For the first time since the end of the Cold War, the U.S. is preparing to adopt policies that align with the multipolar world developing beyond its borders. The aggressive nature of these policies does not negate their compatibility with the new world order. All states, whether they have favorable or unfavorable relations with the United States, must prepare for a drastic shift in American foreign policy. This new plan may fail, and with the return of the Democrats in 2028, the old ways might resurface. But for the next four years, Trump’s Realpolitik awaits us. Let everyone prepare for multipolarity with American characteristics!

Opinion

India’s space sector: A launchpad for global partnerships

Published

on

Ambassador Gurjit Singh, former Indian Ambassador to Germany, Indonesia, Ethiopia, and the ASEAN and African Union missions

Growing competition in outer space provides India with a unique opportunity to shape a narrative in which collaboration, rather than confrontation, drives space exploration. Recognised as a trustworthy and cost-effective spacefaring nation, India is now well placed to transform its technological advances into enduring international partnerships that contribute to scientific progress, economic growth, and sustainable development.

India’s journey into space has been distinctive. Unlike many space programmes that emerged from Cold War rivalries, India’s programme was conceived as an instrument of national development. Dr. Vikram Sarabhai anchored India’s space vision in practical applications that would improve the lives of ordinary people. Under his leadership, satellites were developed to strengthen communications, weather forecasting, disaster management, healthcare, agriculture and education. This development-oriented philosophy remains central to India’s space programme and resonates strongly with the needs of countries in the Global South, which seek practical applications of space technology rather than prestige alone.

Today, India’s achievements extend  beyond developmental applications. The Chandrayaan missions, the Mars Orbiter Mission, the Aditya-L1 solar observatory, and the forthcoming Gaganyaan human spaceflight programme have established India as a nation capable of executing sophisticated and reliable space missions. Chandrayaan-3’s successful soft landing near the Moon’s south pole placed India among an exclusive group of space powers while demonstrating that world-class innovation can be achieved at comparatively modest cost.

India’s growing credibility comes at a time when the global space economy is expanding rapidly. Valued at over US$600 billion today and projected to approach US$1.8 trillion by 2035, the sector is increasingly driven by commercial activity in satellite communications, Earth observation, navigation, climate services, broadband connectivity, and emerging fields such as in-orbit servicing and lunar exploration. Many countries aspire to participate but lack indigenous capabilities. They seek dependable long-term partners rather than merely launch providers.

India possesses the capabilities to meet these requirements. The liberalisation of the space sector in 2020 transformed the ecosystem by opening it to private participation. The establishment of the Indian National Space Promotion and Authorisation Centre (IN-SPACe), the expanding commercial role of NewSpace India Limited, and the growth of private enterprises have created one of the world’s most dynamic emerging space ecosystems. Indian startups are developing launch vehicles, satellite platforms, geospatial applications and propulsion technologies that are attracting global investment and customers. Companies such as Skyroot Aerospace, Pixxel and Agnikul Cosmos have demonstrated that Indian private enterprise can compete internationally in advanced space technologies.

The next step is to internationalise this ecosystem.

Rather than positioning itself only as a low-cost launch destination, India will offer comprehensive partnerships encompassing satellite design, launch services, mission operations, ground stations, astronaut training, capacity building and downstream applications in agriculture, disaster management and maritime security. Such integrated partnerships would be valuable for countries across the Global South and the Indo-Pacific seeking affordable, customised and reliable technologies to meet their development priorities.

India has demonstrated the diplomatic value of such cooperation. Through the South Asia Satellite, it provided communication and developmental benefits to neighbouring countries. Indian launch vehicles have successfully placed hundreds of foreign satellites into orbit for governments, universities and commercial operators around the world. India’s decision to join the Artemis Accords reflects its willingness to participate in the peaceful exploration of the Moon through international collaboration. Cooperation with  NASA, the European Space Agency and JAXA has strengthened India’s scientific and technological capabilities.

These partnerships reinforce India’s standing as a leading voice of the Global South. India offers development partnerships based on affordability, reliability and mutual respect rather than creating technological dependence. Space cooperation has therefore become an increasingly important instrument of Indian diplomacy, strengthening bilateral relationships while delivering tangible developmental benefits.

To realise its full potential, India will aim to sustain the momentum of reform. Faster regulatory approvals, greater access to venture capital, stronger intellectual property protection, and closer collaboration among research institutions, industry and academia will be essential. Public procurement policies would continue supporting Indian startups, enabling them to scale up, innovate and integrate into global supply chains.

India is positioned to play a larger role in shaping the governance of outer space. Orbital congestion, space debris, responsible resource utilisation and equitable access to emerging space opportunities are becoming pressing international concerns. As space activities expand, there will be an increasing need for countries capable of building consensus on responsible norms and practices. India’s long-standing commitment to the peaceful uses of outer space, combined with its growing technological capabilities, equips it to contribute meaningfully to the development of rules that promote transparency, sustainability and equitable access.

The coming decade will determine not only which countries lead in space but also how space is governed. With its scientific capabilities, entrepreneurial ecosystem and international credibility, India is uniquely placed to bridge the gap between established and emerging space nations. By building collaborative partnerships founded on inclusivity, mutual benefit and innovation, India can transform its space programme into a major pillar of its global engagement.

In an increasingly divided world, India’s space sector offers a powerful reminder that the greatest achievements in space are those that bring nations together. That may well become India’s most enduring contribution to humanity’s next frontier.

Continue Reading

Opinion

Great powers and the fierce rivalry in Africa

Avatar photo

Published

on

In tandem with the retreat of US imperialism and the erosion of its hegemonic capacity, the rivalry among the world’s great powers is intensifying across vast geographies and divergent fronts alike. From Africa to Central Asia, from electric vehicles to artificial intelligence, an acute contest is unfolding—most conspicuously between the United States and China.

History instructs us that wherever great power rivalry takes root, peace remains elusive. Stability cannot endure there. Wars, internal conflicts, coups d’état, and the mass migrations they inevitably trigger dominate the horizon. Nor do great powers desire the cultivation of participatory democracy, human rights, the rule of law, or class consciousness in these lands. Instead, they bolster dictatorships, authoritarian regimes, totalitarian systems, and repressive governance. The imperialist powers harbor no concern for the scarcity of water, drought, or famine in Africa. Their focus is solely fixed on exploitation, plunder, pillaging the resources of the nations upon which they descend, and capturing their domestic markets.

Africa holds singular importance in this context. It commands attention simultaneously by virtue of its sheer expanse, its demographic weight, and its subterranean wealth. In the rivalry across this ancient and impoverished continent, the United States and China lead the vanguard. Russia, too, makes notable maneuvers, though on a less extensive scale. Between the United States and China, the race is particularly fierce regarding the extraction, processing, and conveyance of subterranean resources to world markets.

Africa—endowed with abundant mineral wealth, a population approaching 1.5 billion, and critical strategic importance along global trade routes—whet the appetites of capitalist, advanced, industrialized, imperialist states as a vast, populous, and expanding market. Geopolitically as well, its position cannot be ignored. Africa’s wealth in rare earth elements, precious minerals such as diamonds and gold, and strategic minerals indispensable to advanced technologies—notably copper, cobalt, and lithium—is indisputable.

AFRICA CARRIES NO WEIGHT IN GLOBAL POLITICS

Unlike other continents such as Europe, Asia, or the Americas, Africa possesses no single country that commands prominence in global politics or the world economy. Nor does Africa host an alliance, international organization, or bloc of comparable global stature. In the Americas, there stands a superpower: the United States. In Asia, there are great powers: Russia and China, with India also ascending. In Europe, major, consequential powers endure: the United Kingdom, France, and Germany. Yet on the African continent, no such states exist. What exists in Africa is the rivalry of non-African great powers. Even the 55-member African Union, the institutional body of the continent’s nations, remains far from exerting any real influence—not only in global politics, but even across the African continent itself.

Over the past fifteen to twenty years, Africa has undergone substantial upheavals. Armed conflicts, civil wars, and violence have become pervasive. From Ethiopia to Somalia, Libya to Sudan, armed hostilities have claimed countless lives, destabilized governments, and provoked massive waves of displacement. Terrorist organizations have seized upon these conditions as an opportune opening, and the great powers, in turn, have instrumentalized these terror networks.

In Africa, former nineteenth- and twentieth-century colonial powers such as Britain and France indulge in reveries of bygone eras. They attempt to assert themselves, yet their efforts prove futile. Germany, as Europe’s leading economic, industrial, and technological powerhouse, takes a keen interest in Africa; yet despite this attention, its institutional knowledge and historical experience regarding the continent pale in comparison to those of the British and French. Italy strives to act, but lacks the requisite capacity. The Netherlands and Belgium, once deeply entrenched in Africa, are far removed from their imperial past. Spain and Portugal assert no claim to global primacy. All of these nations languish, to borrow Ahmet Hamdi Tanpınar’s phrase, in “a vague longing for a bygone past.”

China, well aware of Africa’s significance, is investing heavily across the continent. It stands as Africa’s largest trading partner and the primary destination for the continent’s exports. In the provision of loans, credit facilities, and grants to African states, it has outpaced Western institutions. China’s investment and foreign aid capacity, economic leverage, and extensive commercial ties naturally consolidate its political and diplomatic influence across Africa, elevating its visibility and prestige. Under the auspices of the Belt and Road Initiative, Beijing continues to finance large-scale infrastructure investments as well as major communications and transport projects.

THE FEROCITY AND DIMENSIONS OF THE RIVALRY

It is, of course, impossible for Russia to mount massive economic investments, conduct extensive aid operations, or sustain the volume of trade in Africa that China commands. Consequently, it seeks to distinguish itself by guaranteeing the security of local leaders, corporate enterprises, and ruling elites, relying predominantly on private military companies (the operations of the Wagner Group being a case in point). Russia has deployed mercenaries to Mali and the Central African Republic.

The United States, for its part, endeavors to counter China’s expanding influence, economic footprint, visibility, and public diplomacy initiatives in Africa, while simultaneously laboring to reinforce its own economic and political ties with African states. One need only recall that the United States, having intervened in Libya in 2011 through NATO, has directly struck ISIS targets in Somalia. The strategic depth of Washington’s relationship with Cairo is likewise well known.

The United States, China, and Russia also stand out prominently in arms sales to African nations. As the great power rivalry on the continent grows ever sharper, the spectrum of contestation widens accordingly. Cultural rivalry is superimposed upon economic, political, and military dimensions. Because every great power seeking to expand its sphere of influence and reach is determined to block the advance of its competitors, Africa serves both as the stage for and the witness to this unsparing contest. Some experts explain this rivalry through the lens of a new strain of colonialism; others account for it by pointing to the inherent nature, complexity, and multifaceted character of competition between imperialist metropoles.

Continue Reading

Opinion

The women who refuse to be erased: On Japan’s surrender anniversary, the fight over wartime sexual slavery continues

Published

on

BUSAN, South Korea — On the day Japan marks the 81st anniversary of its surrender in World War Two, a conference room in Busan’s city council building has become the latest front in a battle over memory.

Allan Wilson, Journalist

Last month, on 23 July, academics, activists and lawmakers gathered here for a symposium on one of the war’s most painful legacies: the estimated tens of thousands of women — euphemistically labelled “comfort women” — forced into sexual slavery by the Imperial Japanese Army. The event was co-hosted by the Carter Human Rights Center’s Asia division and the Korean Women’s Forum.

“The records of the Japanese military’s comfort women are historical assets that the international community must preserve together,” Nam Myung-sook, the Busan city councillor who co-organised the symposium, told the gathering. “Social consensus must be broadened.”

Her words were aimed at more than the audience in the room.

For three decades, survivors and their advocates have pressed Japan for a full and unequivocal accounting. They have met a familiar pattern: moments of apparent progress — the 1993 Kono statement acknowledging military involvement, the 2015 bilateral agreement with South Korea — followed by retreat. Japanese officials continue to dispute the term “sexual slavery.” Textbooks soften the language. Senior politicians visit Yasukuni Shrine, where convicted war criminals are honoured alongside the dead.

The symposium came as UNESCO’s World Heritage Committee convened in Busan, and the timing was deliberate. One of the gathering’s stated goals was to revive the push to have comfort women records inscribed on UNESCO’s Memory of the World register — an effort Japan has repeatedly blocked.

“Our aim is to reaffirm the historical facts of comfort women (受害) to the international community and explore directions that contribute to peace and human rights,” said Yu Ying-mo, senior adviser to the Carter Human Rights Center’s Asia region, in remarks prepared for the event.

A statue, a warning

The symposium also addressed an incident that has become a diplomatic flashpoint: the recent removal of a comfort women memorial statue in Taiwan.

The statue, one of dozens erected across East Asia and beyond, was taken down in recent months. Organisers in Busan described the removal as “an erroneous approach that erases historical wounds and weakens collective memory,” according to the symposium’s programme.

For advocates, the Taiwan case illustrates what happens when political pressure is allowed to dictate historical memory. “Statues, memorial halls, and archives related to comfort women are important spaces of memory that testify to the victims’ suffering and history,” the Carter Human Rights Center said in its written address. “They must be respected.”

Dozens of comfort women memorials now stand in cities from Seoul to San Francisco to Berlin. Each has become a site of diplomatic friction: Japan’s government has consistently objected to them, arguing they perpetuate what it calls an inaccurate narrative.

The shrinking window

Time is running out. Of the few hundred women who came forward in the 1990s, the number of surviving registered victims in South Korea has dwindled to single digits.

This demographic reality has injected new urgency into the preservation effort. Shim Ok-ju, a research professor at George Mason University Korea, told the symposium that the focus must now shift from oral testimony — soon to be lost — to documentation and education.

Seo Kyung-soon, a professor at Pukyong National University, presented findings from the so-called “Gwanbu Trial” records — a series of postwar legal proceedings in which comfort women sought compensation through Japanese courts. The documents, she argued, contain incontrovertible evidence of state orchestration.

A designated discussant panel followed, bringing together Kim Tae-wan, a political science professor at Dong-eui University; Kim Kyung-hee, an independent researcher; and Ahn Jun-young, a journalist from the Busan Ilbo newspaper. The format was designed to bridge academia and public consciousness — to test whether scholarly findings could survive the scrutiny of working journalists and political scientists.

The international dimension

The comfort women issue has never been purely bilateral. In 1996, the UN Special Rapporteur on violence against women concluded that the system constituted “military sexual slavery.” In 2022, the UN Committee on the Elimination of Discrimination against Women urged Japan to “ensure that the issue is accurately reflected in school curricula.”

Yet the gap between international consensus and Japanese government policy remains wide. Prime ministerial statements offer “apologies and remorse” but stop short of accepting legal responsibility. Reparations have come from private funds, not the state.

For organisers of the Busan symposium, the path forward runs through multilateral institutions. UNESCO recognition, they argue, would make historical revisionism harder to sustain. But Japan has made clear it will oppose any such move, as it did when Chinese documents related to the 1937 Nanjing Massacre were inscribed in 2015.

“Facing history squarely and respecting it is a fundamental value that the international community should share,” the symposium’s organisers concluded.

This 15 August, as Japan observes its National Memorial Service for the War Dead, the women who survived — and those who did not — will be remembered in rooms like the one in Busan. Their numbers are dwindling. The question is whether their story will outlast them.

Continue Reading

MOST READ

Turkey