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Analysts: Tariff changes won’t cripple China’s e-commerce but will harm US consumers

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US President Donald Trump’s removal of a long-term tariff exemption that benefits China’s cross-border e-commerce giants will hurt American consumers—especially low-income earners—more than the companies themselves, analysts said.

The ‘de minimis’ exemption, which allowed packages worth less than $800 to enter the US duty-free, was removed as part of Trump’s 1 February executive order raising tariffs on Chinese goods by 10%. The tax loophole played a major role in the growth of China’s cross-border e-commerce sector, as sellers sending small shipments directly to US consumers could avoid US import duties and customs controls.

According to US Customs and Border Protection, the number of shipments entering the US under the de minimis exemption has increased by more than 600 percent over the past decade, from about 139 million in fiscal 2015 to more than 1 billion in fiscal 2023. Between 2018 and 2021, the United States received an estimated $228.3 billion in de minimis shipments from China—including $79.3 billion from Hong Kong—accounting for more than two-thirds of total US de minimis imports, according to a report released last week by the Congressional Research Service.

The removal of the exemption means that goods from Shein, Temu, and other Chinese cross-border e-commerce players will now be subject to US tariffs on Chinese imports—already more than 20% in some sectors and set to increase by another 10% following Trump’s latest order.

US households will be negatively affected

But analysts said China’s e-commerce players are ready to weather the change as they can mitigate its effects by adjusting their business operations.

“I don’t think the US restrictions will kill cross-border e-commerce, but it will be more troublesome,” Victor Gao, vice president of Beijing-based think tank, the Centre for China and Globalisation, told the South China Morning Post. “The cost will be borne by consumers, and that’s the sad part of the story,” he added.

“Removing this exemption will have a real impact,” said Jayant Menon, a senior researcher at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore. “I think this was being pushed by companies like Amazon, which faced significant competition from Chinese e-commerce firms like Temu and Shein. In a sense, it levels the playing field,” he said.

However, Menon added that the biggest victims of this policy will be US households who benefit from cheap Chinese goods. “All this will do is reduce consumer welfare in the US by depriving some people of income,” he said.

Platforms such as Temu and Shein have become extremely popular in the US in recent years, offering a range of budget-friendly products from $8 carpets to $28 winter jackets. Last year, China’s cross-border e-commerce exports reached $93.58 billion, up 42% from a year earlier, according to Chinese customs data. Cross-border e-commerce shipments are now the country’s second-largest export category.

Liang Yan, an economist at Willamette University in Oregon, said the removal of the de minimis provision will hit low-income households the hardest because they rely on low-cost products from China.

“This has created a lot of service jobs such as e-commerce, warehousing, and delivery. US businesses and consumers will also be negatively affected by the removal of this provision,” he said.

Meanwhile, some analysts pointed out that the move could run afoul of World Trade Organization rules, as small packages are often used to avoid customs duties around the world. Collecting customs duties on millions of small shipments would also be costly for customs authorities, they added.

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China weighs restricting foreign access to advanced AI models and tightening technology controls

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China is considering restricting overseas access to its most advanced artificial intelligence models, including designs that have not yet been publicly released.

According to a Reuters report citing three sources familiar with the matter, the government in Beijing is increasing its control mechanisms to protect the domestic AI sector and its proprietary technologies.

Officials from the Chinese Ministry of Commerce have held a series of meetings over the past month with the country’s leading AI developers and technology giants. Represented at these discussions were major corporations including e-commerce platform Alibaba, TikTok owner ByteDance, and information technology firm Z.ai.

The meetings focused on potential restrictions that could be imposed on the distribution of China’s most modern AI models.

Sources said that Beijing plans to increase criminal liabilities for the leak or theft of AI technologies, treating such actions as equivalent to violations of national security law.

Other topics discussed during the meetings included the introduction of additional limitations on the funding of China-based AI startups.

The final framework of the new measures has not yet been established. Sources indicated that the potential restrictions might only affect models developed in the future. The date on which these regulations would take effect remains unknown.

Following the launch of the Chinese-developed DeepSeek R1 model, the country’s AI solutions strengthened their position in the global market by offering low costs and high performance. Industry analysts note that blocking foreign users from accessing these technologies could impact the global AI market and increase costs for companies that rely on Chinese models.

Beijing continues to expand its oversight of the domestic AI industry. According to Reuters, authorities initiated investigations earlier this year into several Chinese AI companies that had relocated their operations abroad. Controls have also been tightened on commercial transactions involving technology, data, and national security.

According to a report by the Financial Times citing internal sources, Beijing is also discussing plans to reduce the number of publications that Chinese scientists submit to foreign academic journals.

The report emphasized that these discussions are driven by growing concerns over technology leaks and a desire to strengthen state control over the dissemination of scientific research results.

In 2024, Chinese academics authored approximately one-third of all publications indexed in the Science Citation Index (SCI) database, which encompasses leading international scientific journals.

Industry experts state that China is transitioning from its previous goal of expanding its international scientific presence to a new phase focused on controlling the usage of technologies developed within its borders. According to these experts, Beijing aims with these moves to both protect its national security and maintain its leverage in the global scientific community.

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China launches submarine missile into Pacific, triggering alarm in Japan, Australia, and New Zealand

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China’s military launched a missile into the Pacific Ocean from a nuclear-powered submarine on Monday, triggering expressions of concern and criticism from regional nations including Japan, Australia, and New Zealand.

The nuclear-powered submarine, belonging to the People’s Liberation Army Navy, launched a missile carrying a dummy warhead into international waters in the Pacific at 12:01 p.m. (0401 GMT), the official Xinhua news agency reported.

The agency stated that the missile landed in “designated waters” but did not provide further details regarding the specific location.

Xinhua characterized the launch as a “routine arrangement” within China’s annual military training program, adding that the test was not directed at any specific country or target.

Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong said that Beijing had notified the Australian government of the planned test, but she nevertheless described the launch as “destabilizing” for the region.

Speaking at a press conference in Suva, the capital of Fiji, Wong argued that the test took place in a context where “China is rapidly building up its military, yet failing to offer the transparency and reassurance regarding its intentions that the region expects.”

The missile test occurred only hours after Australia and Fiji signed a major defense alliance on Monday. The agreement provides that if either party is attacked, the other will come to its assistance.

Beijing and Western powers, led by the US and Australia, have competed for influence in the strategically located island nations for years, with China seeking to expand its economic and security footprint across the South Pacific.

When asked about the defense pact, Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Mao Ning said China hoped the relevant countries would respect the independence and autonomy of the island states, and refrain from targeting third parties or harming their interests.

Test conducted hours after notification

New Zealand Foreign Minister Winston Peters declared that his country was deeply concerned by the test.

“Despite our long-standing concerns regarding such activities, it appears China conducted the test only hours after notifying us,” Peters said in a written statement.

“New Zealand views this as an unwelcome and concerning development. Like our neighbors in other Pacific nations, we have no interest in China using the South Pacific as a testing ground for missile capabilities,” he added.

The Japanese government announced that it had been notified of the missile launch and had called on China to reconsider the decision.

“We have expressed our serious concern regarding the increasing activities of the Chinese military,” Tokyo said in a statement. Japanese officials also noted that Chinese authorities had notified the Japan Coast Guard on Sunday regarding space debris that could fall within Japan’s exclusive economic zone.

The missile landed outside Japan’s exclusive economic zone, the Kyodo news agency reported on Monday, citing a Japanese government source.

Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara told a press conference that there had been no reports of damage to Japanese aircraft or vessels resulting from the test.

Responding to the criticism from the region, Mao said the launch was conducted “in a safe, compliant, and professional manner from start to finish.”

“We hope the relevant countries do not overinterpret the matter,” Mao said during a press conference in Beijing.

It is rare for China to launch long-range missiles into the sea. China last conducted an intercontinental ballistic missile test in 2024, a launch that demonstrated the country’s growing military capabilities.

The latest test comes at a time when the US and its allies have been increasing their military activities in the region to counter China. In response to these military exercises, China has also been stepping up its own military activities in the area, including joint exercises with Russia.

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South Korea unveils $518 billion plan for new southwestern semiconductor cluster

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South Korea plans to develop a new semiconductor manufacturing hub in the southwestern region of the country through an 800 trillion won ($517.9 billion) corporate investment, which will establish four memory chip production facilities, Industry Minister Kim Jung-kwan announced on Monday.

Kim disclosed the investment plan, which aims to transform the Gwangju and Jeolla regions into the country’s second-largest semiconductor cluster alongside the existing hub in the Seoul metropolitan area, during a national investment briefing chaired by President Lee Jae Myung at Cheong Wa Dae.

“To meet the rising demand for semiconductors, relying solely on a single production base in the Seoul metropolitan area is no longer sufficient,” Kim said, noting that constraints on power and water resources under current plans limit further expansion.

The semiconductor investment is part of the government’s “three mega projects” initiative. This initiative envisions large-scale investments by chip giants such as Samsung Electronics Co. and SK hynix Inc., alongside other companies, in the fields of semiconductors, physical artificial intelligence, and AI data centers.

To meet the increasing packaging demand as chip production expands, the Chungcheong region will be transformed into an advanced semiconductor packaging hub with an 81 trillion won investment, Kim said. He added that the Daegu and North Gyeongsang regions will be developed as innovation hubs for semiconductor materials, components, and equipment.

Kim also stated that the government will assist companies in accelerating their semiconductor investments by bringing forward the construction schedule of the new manufacturing facilities by up to 12 years. Consequently, the construction of the plants will be moved to the mid-2030s instead of the mid-to-late 2040s.

To support this expansion, the government has committed to streamlining permitting and construction processes, as well as investing in critical infrastructure, including the supply of electricity and industrial water.

At the meeting, which was also attended by Samsung Electronics Chairman Lee Jae-yong and SK Group Chairman Chey Tae-won, Kim presented a plan for a 30 trillion won investment by the government and industry over the next 15 years to support the entire semiconductor value chain, from research and development and chip design to testing and manufacturing.

The ambitious industrial roadmap aims to transform the country from a global manufacturing powerhouse into a leading player in the era of artificial intelligence. At the core of the strategy are semiconductors, AI infrastructure, and physical AI.

Regarding the robotics sector, Kim said the government will develop the AI-powered robotics industry to strengthen South Korea’s manufacturing competitiveness amid intensifying global competition.

Kim warned that China has already begun mass-producing humanoid robots through regional manufacturing hubs, emphasizing that South Korea must accelerate the commercialization and mass production of its own humanoid robots.

“We must accelerate the foundation for mass production,” Kim said, adding that the government plans to generate early domestic demand by supplying humanoid robots in the fields of education, defense, and disaster response.

The initiative aims to increase South Korea’s share of the global humanoid robot market to 20% in the long term, up from just 1% last year.

As the third pillar of the strategy, the government announced an ambitious plan to expand the country’s AI data center infrastructure.

In collaboration with SK Group, GS Group, and portal operator Naver, the government plans to invest approximately 550 trillion won by 2029 to construct AI data centers with a total capacity of 8.4 gigawatts (GW). The total investment is expected to exceed 1,000 trillion won by 2035, expanding capacity to 18.4 GW.

To support this initiative, the government has pledged to secure sufficient power and industrial water supplies and to strengthen the energy infrastructure around existing semiconductor clusters.

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