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Analysts: Tariff changes won’t cripple China’s e-commerce but will harm US consumers

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US President Donald Trump’s removal of a long-term tariff exemption that benefits China’s cross-border e-commerce giants will hurt American consumers—especially low-income earners—more than the companies themselves, analysts said.

The ‘de minimis’ exemption, which allowed packages worth less than $800 to enter the US duty-free, was removed as part of Trump’s 1 February executive order raising tariffs on Chinese goods by 10%. The tax loophole played a major role in the growth of China’s cross-border e-commerce sector, as sellers sending small shipments directly to US consumers could avoid US import duties and customs controls.

According to US Customs and Border Protection, the number of shipments entering the US under the de minimis exemption has increased by more than 600 percent over the past decade, from about 139 million in fiscal 2015 to more than 1 billion in fiscal 2023. Between 2018 and 2021, the United States received an estimated $228.3 billion in de minimis shipments from China—including $79.3 billion from Hong Kong—accounting for more than two-thirds of total US de minimis imports, according to a report released last week by the Congressional Research Service.

The removal of the exemption means that goods from Shein, Temu, and other Chinese cross-border e-commerce players will now be subject to US tariffs on Chinese imports—already more than 20% in some sectors and set to increase by another 10% following Trump’s latest order.

US households will be negatively affected

But analysts said China’s e-commerce players are ready to weather the change as they can mitigate its effects by adjusting their business operations.

“I don’t think the US restrictions will kill cross-border e-commerce, but it will be more troublesome,” Victor Gao, vice president of Beijing-based think tank, the Centre for China and Globalisation, told the South China Morning Post. “The cost will be borne by consumers, and that’s the sad part of the story,” he added.

“Removing this exemption will have a real impact,” said Jayant Menon, a senior researcher at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore. “I think this was being pushed by companies like Amazon, which faced significant competition from Chinese e-commerce firms like Temu and Shein. In a sense, it levels the playing field,” he said.

However, Menon added that the biggest victims of this policy will be US households who benefit from cheap Chinese goods. “All this will do is reduce consumer welfare in the US by depriving some people of income,” he said.

Platforms such as Temu and Shein have become extremely popular in the US in recent years, offering a range of budget-friendly products from $8 carpets to $28 winter jackets. Last year, China’s cross-border e-commerce exports reached $93.58 billion, up 42% from a year earlier, according to Chinese customs data. Cross-border e-commerce shipments are now the country’s second-largest export category.

Liang Yan, an economist at Willamette University in Oregon, said the removal of the de minimis provision will hit low-income households the hardest because they rely on low-cost products from China.

“This has created a lot of service jobs such as e-commerce, warehousing, and delivery. US businesses and consumers will also be negatively affected by the removal of this provision,” he said.

Meanwhile, some analysts pointed out that the move could run afoul of World Trade Organization rules, as small packages are often used to avoid customs duties around the world. Collecting customs duties on millions of small shipments would also be costly for customs authorities, they added.

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Chinese chipmaker profits surge 2,500% on explosive AI computing demand

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Major Chinese microchip manufacturers saw their profits surge by 2,579.5% in the first half of 2026, driven by unprecedented demand for artificial intelligence and computing capacity.

Data from China’s National Bureau of Statistics, cited by the South China Morning Post (SCMP), underscored the industry’s sharp upward trajectory.

Yu Weining, senior statistician at China’s National Bureau of Statistics, explained that this surge is directly connected to the accelerating integration of artificial intelligence across various sectors.

Yu noted that this process has increased the need for computing capacity. The demand for computational processes also lifted profits across the entire electronics industry by 97% year-on-year.

Profits of major Chinese industrial enterprises with an annual revenue exceeding 20 million yuan ($2.9 million) rose 18.7% in the first six months of the year, reaching 4 trillion yuan.

In the first half of 2025, before the global data center construction process had begun, industrial profits had dropped by 1.8% to 3.4 trillion yuan, while profit growth in the electronics sector remained at 3.5%.

The SCMP reported that the global AI boom has generated explosive demand for high-performance computing systems and memory chips, causing a structural pivot in China’s industrial landscape.

Data showed that integrated circuit production in the first half of the year grew by 23% year-on-year to reach approximately 280 billion units.

This figure means that the country produced an average of more than 1.5 billion chips per day.

The profit growth is also corroborated by forecasts from China’s leading chipmakers. Shenzhen Longsys Electronics, one of the largest memory module manufacturers, expects its profits to increase by more than 600-fold in the first half of the year.

Flash memory maker GigaDevice projects that its net profit will surge by approximately 1,099% year-on-year due to supply shortages and rising product prices.

Chinese companies in the AI chip segment are also demonstrating strong profit growth, albeit at a more moderate pace compared to the memory market.

Hygon Information Technology, which develops central processing units and computing units for artificial intelligence, projects that its profits will rise by up to 52.3%.

CXMT hits record high on Shanghai Stock Exchange

Shares of Chinese chipmaker CXMT gained more than 500% on their first day of trading on the Shanghai Stock Exchange on July 27, jumping from 8.66 yuan to 55 yuan.

As a result of this sharp surge in its shares, CXMT’s market valuation reached 3.65 trillion yuan ($539 billion), making the company China’s most valuable publicly traded firm.

At the peak of the rally—even though quoted prices underwent a slight correction toward the close of the trading day—CXMT surpassed Tencent, which was trading on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange with a market capitalization of $514 billion.

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Massive student movement over exam leaks forces resignation of India’s education minister

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Indian public examination reform proposals follow education minister’s resignation after nationwide youth protests

India’s federal government introduced legislation in parliament on Monday to amend the law governing public examinations, days after the “Cockroach” movement forced the resignation of Education Minister Dharmendra Pradhan following nationwide youth protests.

The bill incorporates enhanced sanctions, including longer prison sentences and higher fines for those found responsible for exam leaks and irregularities.

The demonstrations are widely viewed as the most significant youth-led challenge faced by Prime Minister Narendra Modi since he took office in 2014.

What triggered the protests?

Nearly 2 million students took the National Eligibility cum Entrance Test (NEET), an undergraduate medical entrance examination, in May. The federal National Testing Agency cancelled the exam on May 12 following allegations that question papers had been leaked. The examination was re-administered on June 21.

Young people took to the streets to protest against examination fraud, youth unemployment, and a perceived lack of future prospects.

According to a BBC report, the unemployment rate among university and college graduates aged 15 to 25 in the country stands at a critically high level of 40%. The addition of corruption in public examinations to existing economic strain broke the patience of the youth.

Abhijeet Dipke, founder of the Cockroach Public Party (CJP) movement, led the protests.

The movement derived its name from remarks made in May by Supreme Court Judge Surya Kant, who used the terms “cockroach” and “parasite” in a derogatory reference to unemployed youth and protesters. Young demonstrators adopted the insult as a symbol and named their movement after it.

How the movement unfolded

Young protesters organized street demonstrations demanding the resignation of Education Minister Pradhan. Dipke, who initiated the movement in New Delhi, subsequently organized protests in other parts of the country.

Sonam Wangchuk, one of the protesters, began a hunger strike at the demonstration site in support of the movement. As his physical condition deteriorated, authorities forcibly transferred him to a hospital.

The reaction to Wangchuk’s forcible removal from the protest site caused crowds at the venue to expand rapidly.

Tens of thousands of protesters faced tear gas and baton charges by police while attempting to march on parliament. Some demonstrators engaged in clashes with law enforcement officers.

CJP leaders held talks with ministers from the Modi government, who requested time to evaluate the protesters’ demands internally.

Modi called for unity among lawmakers in the ruling coalition to implement strict measures against exam paper leaks, punish those responsible, and establish a secure, leak-proof system.

Opposition representatives led by Rahul Gandhi staged a sit-in at the entrance of Modi’s official residence demanding Pradhan’s resignation. They were briefly detained by police before being released.

Opposition lawmakers supporting the student protesters disrupted proceedings in parliament. Demonstrations expanded to other regions of the country, including the financial hub of Mumbai.

In his first direct statement regarding the protests, published in a post on X, Modi announced that special courts would be established to prosecute individuals involved in exam paper leaks. Protesters rejected the proposal.

Movement leaders held a second round of talks with the government after Wangchuk ended his 26-day hunger strike.

Following those discussions, the government requested time until the afternoon of the following day to respond to the demand for Pradhan’s resignation.

Education Minister Pradhan subsequently announced his resignation, stating that he was stepping down in light of the situation at the protest site and across the country, as well as to prevent “external forces” from exploiting the environment.

On July 26, Modi announced the creation of a task force headed by technology entrepreneur Nandan Nilekani to overhaul the country’s examination system.

On Monday, July 27, the government presented a bill to parliament proposing amendments to the law governing public examinations. The legislation introduces stiffer penalties for offenders, including extended prison terms and increased monetary fines.

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China’s DeepSeek prepares for 2027 mainland IPO, aims for $71 billion valuation in new funding round

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DeepSeek, the China-based startup developing artificial intelligence models, has begun preparations for an initial public offering (IPO).

According to a Bloomberg report citing sources familiar with the matter, the company plans to file its IPO application either this year or early next year.

The sources noted that the filing timeline will depend on the readiness of the company’s financial reports, with DeepSeek projected to go public on a mainland Chinese stock exchange in 2027.

Prior to the IPO, DeepSeek also aims to conduct a new funding round. In this second investment round, the company reportedly plans to raise at least 10 billion yuan (approximately $1.48 billion), a process expected to push its market valuation to at least 480 billion yuan (approximately $71 billion).

The AI startup, which secured $7.4 billion in its first funding round, saw its market valuation exceed $50 billion, rendering DeepSeek the most valuable artificial intelligence company in China.

The company’s founder, Liang Wenfeng, personally invested $3 billion of his own capital into the DeepSeek project. According to data from the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, Liang’s stake in the company fell from 90% to 78% following the latest investment round.

Despite this decline, Liang’s personal wealth more than doubled, rising from $16.7 billion to approximately $36 billion.

This surge has positioned Liang as the wealthiest founder of an AI model-developing company in the world.

According to earlier reports by Reuters, the investment round was structured under an unusual partnership model that allows founder Liang Wenfeng to maintain administrative control over the company.

Under this framework, which requires investors to provide funds to a limited liability partnership managed by the company’s general manager rather than investing directly in DeepSeek, backers are not granted voting rights. Furthermore, the provided funds are locked and cannot be withdrawn for a period of five years.

The China National Artificial Intelligence Industry Investment Fund was the sole institution exempted from these strict rules, investing approximately $150 million directly into DeepSeek.

Based in Hangzhou, China, DeepSeek was founded by Liang Wenfeng in 2023.

The company was structured as a unit within Zhejiang High-Flyer Asset Management, a hedge fund specializing in artificial intelligence that Liang launched alongside two former university classmates.

In early 2025, DeepSeek released a new artificial intelligence model offering performance comparable to US rivals such as OpenAI, but at a significantly lower operating cost.

Following these developments, founder Liang Wenfeng stated that the company will continue to develop open-source artificial intelligence models, emphasizing that their ultimate global objective is to achieve artificial general intelligence (AGI).

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