The United Kingdom has convened emergency security talks in response to potential threats against its military bases in Southern Cyprus and Gibraltar, reportedly stemming from heightened tensions with Russia. The threat level at these bases has been assessed as “significant,” indicating that an attack is considered likely.

According to The Telegraph, senior defense officials have engaged in urgent discussions with regional authorities to address these risks. This follows Russian President Vladimir Putin’s warning that the UK could be targeted in retaliation for Ukraine’s use of British Storm Shadow cruise missiles.

A source familiar with the matter stated, “Southern Cyprus is much more vulnerable to attack. Russia could arm Hezbollah or another proxy group to launch an attack through Iran. One of our biggest concerns is the possibility that the Houthis could be armed to launch an attack due to their proximity to Cyprus.”

The current threat level to British military bases, categorized as “significant,” places it in the middle of the UK’s five-point threat scale. This scale ranges from “low” to “critical,” with a significant level indicating that an attack is highly likely in the near future.

Government sources confirmed that these security reviews are ongoing. However, they emphasized that such discussions are part of routine procedures to assess and enhance security measures.

Germany has stepped up pressure in recent days for a ‘positive’ message on the future of EU-Turkey relations to be included in the final declaration of the EU summit, Euractiv has learned.

Two EU diplomats confirmed to Euractiv that Berlin is pushing for the inclusion of a paragraph in the final text of the EU summit conclusions urging the European Commission to continue monitoring the development of EU-Turkey relations.

After months of escalating relations between Greece, Cyprus and Turkey, the EU’s chief diplomat Josep Borrell prepared a report on the state of play of EU-Turkey political, economic and trade relations in early 2023.

Although the first report was completed in November 2023, it could not be discussed due to the busy agenda of EU leaders at the last three summits.

However, according to Euractiv, Cyprus wanted a “proper” discussion at this summit before sending a “positive” message, as suggested by Germany.

An EU diplomat told Euractiv that European Council President Charles Michel was not keen to discuss the issue because of the heavy agenda.

Relations with Athens, migration and satisfaction with sanctions against Russia

According to Euractiv, the European Commission would like to see a reference to a possible EU-Turkey discussion between EU leaders in the final declaration and, at best, a reference to Borrell’s November report.

According to EU officials, positive steps have been taken in recent months, with improved relations with Greece (especially on migration) and special measures taken against Russian sanctions-busting.

However, there are still ‘some concerns’ about President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s description of Hamas as a ‘liberation group fighting to preserve Palestinian land’ rather than a ‘terrorist organisation’.

Cyprus issue stands out as main obstacle

According to Euractiv, there are also some concerns about Ankara’s stance on Cyprus. Sources in Athens stress that Greece could accept a paragraph calling on the Commission to continue the EU-Turkey situation reports.

However, the same sources said that this paragraph should include the following statement from the previous EUCO conclusions “The European Council reiterates the EU’s readiness to engage with Turkey in a gradual, proportionate and reversible way to enhance cooperation in various areas of common interest”.

In addition, the Greek Cypriot side asked for the inclusion of a sentence clarifying that the European Council should have the “last word” on any political decision concerning Turkey.

Cyprus asked for the inclusion of an EU representative on the Cyprus problem, but not all member states agree, Euractiv reported.

Finally, Cyprus asked for the inclusion of the EU’s line on the Cyprus problem, i.e. a bi-communal, bi-national federal solution, in opposition to Turkey’s efforts for a two-state solution.

Athens and Nicosia react to Erdoğan’s comments

Tensions have eased in recent months as Greece and Turkey have engaged in dialogue to improve bilateral relations.

But earlier this week Erdogan provoked the ire of Athens and Nicosia when he said: “Maybe even if we were burdened with the south, I say this as a son of today, there would be no more south-north, there would be no more south-north, Cyprus would be completely ours.”

Cyprus said the statement was “unacceptable”. In Greece, a source in the Greek Foreign Ministry argued that Erdogan’s “statements on the illegal occupation of Cyprus in 1974 constitute a blatant distortion of historical facts and an insult to the memory of the victims”.

The source pointed out that these remarks were made at a time when efforts are underway to resume negotiations under the auspices of the UN, within the framework of UN Security Council resolutions, for the settlement of the Cyprus problem.

Tehran has called for negotiations over the disputed gas field between Iran, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia. A Riyadh-Tehran rapprochement could help bring the parties to a settlement in the gas field, which has not been shared since the 1960s.

After Iran announced it would drill in the Arash/Durra gas field in the Persian Gulf, Kuwait and then Saudi Arabia claimed that the field belonged to them.

The controversy started when Mohsen Khojestemehr, Managing Director of the National Iranian Oil Company, announced that “preparations to start drilling in the oil field have been completed.” “The board of directors of the National Oil Company has been allocated a significant amount of resources to implement the development plan for this field,” Khojestemehr said, according to Iranian state media.

Following Iran’s announcement, an anonymous Kuwaiti Foreign Ministry official said that the Arash/Durra Gas Field in the Persian Gulf and its natural wealth, the subject of the dispute with Iran, belongs entirely to Kuwait and Saudi Arabia. The official called on Iran to sit down with Kuwait and Saudi Arabia and start negotiations to define the maritime border between the two countries.

A day later, a similar call came from Saudi Arabia. Riyadh argued that the entire Durra field belongs to Saudi Arabia and Kuwait and urged Iran to “sit down at the table”.

The Arash/Durra Gas Field in the Persian Gulf, discovered in 1967, has been causing problems between Iran and Kuwait for years. The Iranian side of the gas field is called Arash, while the Kuwaiti side is known as Durra.

Saudi Arabia and Kuwait signed an agreement in March 2022 to develop the Durra Gas Field. Iran, on the other hand, argued that the agreement was “illegal” and announced that it would start drilling in the region.

Kuwait and Saudi Arabia had previously called on Iran to negotiate on this issue, but there was no response from Tehran.

Robin Mills, CEO of Dubai-based Qamar Energy, told The National, “The Saudi-Iran restoration of diplomatic relations included talk of developing joint oil fields. Kuwait has held negotiations with Iran on the border but maintains its position that Al Durra belongs entirely to Kuwait and Saudi Arabia”.

Nora Bakhsh, a researcher on Saudi Arabia and the Gulf, said that the rapprochement between Iran and Saudi Arabia was looking positive so far, but these negotiations are still in the beginning stages and Tehran’s claims to Al Durra could pose additional challenges to them.