Diplomacy
Developing nations pivot from US dollar debt amid high interest rates
Emerging nations are shifting away from US dollar debt, turning to currencies with very low interest rates, such as the renminbi and the Swiss franc.
This shift, initiated by debtor nations such as Kenya, Sri Lanka, and Panama, reflects a reaction to the high interest rates set by the US Federal Reserve (Fed). These rates, in addition to angering President Donald Trump, have also increased the debt servicing costs for other countries.
Armando Armenta, vice president of global economic research at AllianceBernstein, told the Financial Times (FT), “High interest rates and a steep US Treasury yield curve… have made US dollar financing more burdensome for developing countries, despite the relatively low margins on emerging market debt. Consequently, these countries are seeking more cost-effective options.”
However, Armenta described the move to cheaper, non-dollar financing as “temporary measures” taken by countries that “must focus on reducing their financing needs.”
The switch to renminbi-denominated borrowing, with the Chinese currency reaching its highest level against the dollar this year, can also be seen as a consequence of Beijing’s $1.3 trillion Belt and Road development program.
Under this program, hundreds of billions of dollars in loans have been extended to foreign governments for infrastructure projects. Although the total figures for new renminbi loans are not widely known because Beijing negotiates them bilaterally with other governments, Kenya and Sri Lanka are seeking to convert high-profile dollar loans into this currency.
Kenya’s treasury announced in August that it was in talks with China ExIm Bank, the country’s largest creditor, to convert the repayment of dollar loans for a $5 billion railway project, which is straining its budget, into renminbi.
The president of Sri Lanka also told parliament last month that his government is seeking loans in renminbi to complete a major highway project that was halted when the country defaulted in 2022.
With the US federal funds rate between 4.25% and 4.5%—much higher than equivalent rates set by other major central banks—the total cost of new dollar-denominated borrowing is relatively high for many developing countries.
The Swiss National Bank lowered its interest rates to zero in June, while China’s benchmark seven-day reverse repo rate is 1.4%.
“The cost of financing appears to be the reason for the conversion to renminbi,” said Thilina Panduwawala, an economist at Colombo-based Frontier Research.
In the 2010s, many “Belt and Road” loans were issued in US dollars at a time when US interest rates were much lower. Since then, the cost of such debt for Kenya and Sri Lanka has increased significantly, accelerating the trend away from dollar financing.
By borrowing in currencies like the renminbi and the Swiss franc, countries can secure loans at much lower interest rates than those offered by dollar bonds.
However, Yufan Huang from the Johns Hopkins University China-Africa Research Initiative argued that Beijing’s broader efforts to promote lending in its currency have made limited progress.
“Although renminbi interest rates are lower, many borrowers are still hesitant. For now, it seems to be more of a case-by-case practice, as in the example of Kenya,” Huang said.
Since governments rarely earn export revenue in currencies like the renminbi and the Swiss franc, they may also need to hedge their exposure to foreign exchange rates through derivatives.
As the Panamanian government struggles to control its fiscal deficit and prevent its credit rating from falling to junk status, it took out nearly $2.4 billion in Swiss franc loans from banks in July alone.
Panama’s Finance Minister, Felipe Chapman, said that accessing cheaper financing saved over $200 million compared to issuing dollar-denominated debt and that the new loans were hedged.
The minister added that the country is “diversifying” its public debt management into both the euro and the Swiss franc, “instead of relying solely on American dollar capital markets.”
Colombia also appears to be turning to Swiss franc loans to refinance its dollar bonds. Last week, a group of global banks launched an offer to buy discounted Colombian bonds, which investors see as part of arranging a Swiss franc loan to the government that would use the existing debt as collateral.
Although Bogotá has not yet approved such a loan, the country’s finance ministry announced plans in June to diversify its foreign currency borrowing.
Andres Pardo, head of Latin America macro strategy at XP Investments, said that by borrowing at low Swiss interest rates of around 1.5%, Colombia could buy back dollar debt yielding 7% to 8% and local peso bonds yielding up to 12%.
The country’s local currency debt was downgraded to junk status by S&P that month after the government suspended a key fiscal rule.
Investors noted that while government borrowing in Swiss francs could help limit interest expenses, in the long run, such borrowing cannot replace access to the larger public market for dollar-denominated bonds.
“These help with fundamentals if you want to fix your maturity profile… but we need to see policymakers make improvements to reopen the [dollar] markets to them,” said one emerging market debt fund manager.
According to JPMorgan, companies in emerging markets are also selling more euro-denominated bonds this year, with the amount of this debt reaching a record $239 billion as of July.
The total value of dollar-denominated corporate bonds in emerging markets is approximately $2.5 trillion.
“This year’s euro-denominated issuances are growing more than dollar-denominated ones,” said Toke Hjortshøj, a portfolio manager at Impax Asset Management.
The manager added that issuers in Asia account for one-third of euro-denominated issuances, up from 10% to 15% fifteen years ago.
Diplomacy
Greece’s Marinakis says paying Hormuz transit fees beats enduring Red Sea shipping crisis detour
Evangelos Marinakis, one of Greece’s leading shipowners, has announced that he is prepared to pay up to $200,000 per transit to keep the Strait of Hormuz open to civilian maritime traffic.
Speaking to the Financial Times, Marinakis stated that paying a transit fee would be a far better option for him than having the strait closed to navigation.
As the chairman of Capital Maritime Group, which controls a fleet of 185 vessels including approximately 35 tankers, Marinakis emphasized that shipowners have been forced to use alternative routes around the Cape of Good Hope for years due to attacks launched by the Houthis in the Red Sea, a detour that has generated substantial additional costs.
The Greek shipowner indicated that paying a transit fee of $100,000 or $200,000, depending on the size of the cargo or the vessel, is far more reasonable than enduring the current logistical challenges. He added that such payments could offset all the losses experienced so far.
Following US strikes on Iran and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the Tehran administration had introduced transit fees of up to $2 million for certain vessels transiting the waterway.
In May, Iran announced the establishment of a state agency tasked with managing the Strait of Hormuz. It was stated that the institution in question would provide real-time updates regarding maritime activities in the waterway.
Ebrahim Azizi, the chairman of the Iranian Parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy Commission, had noted that only commercial vessels and countries cooperating with Iran would be able to benefit from the facilities provided under this “professional mechanism.”
US President Donald Trump has explicitly opposed the imposition of transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz. In a statement on the matter, Trump said, “We want the strait to be open. We do not want any transit fees to be charged. This is an international waterway.”
On the other hand, the draft text of a planned 60-day ceasefire extension agreement between the parties stipulates that the Strait of Hormuz will remain open without any transit fees being demanded.
According to the draft details reviewed by Axios, the US in return commits to lifting the blockade it has imposed on Iranian ports. The Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, however, announced that the management of the Strait of Hormuz has been excluded from the scope of the agreement with the US, asserting that the issue will be addressed solely by littoral states.
Diplomacy
Pashinyan promises aid to farmers hit by Russian import restrictions
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has pledged compensation for Armenian farmers affected by restrictions on exports to Russia.
According to Sputnik Armenia, Pashinyan made the announcement during an election campaign meeting in the Gegharkunik region.
Speaking at the event, Pashinyan said the subsidies would be designed to offset losses incurred by producers.
The prime minister also acknowledged that some Armenian products had failed to meet required quality standards, adding that such companies would receive support aimed at improving product quality.
Addressing alternative markets for Armenian exports, Pashinyan said several Armenian business delegations were already engaged in negotiations abroad.
He added that Armenia had received offers for the purchase of roses as well as fresh fruits and vegetables.
Pashinyan argued that Armenia’s agricultural output was not particularly large, describing this as an advantage under current circumstances. According to the prime minister, “a respected supermarket chain in Europe” would be capable of selling the entire volume of these products on its own.
Russia’s Federal Service for Veterinary and Phytosanitary Surveillance (Rosselkhoznadzor) imposed temporary restrictions on imports of stone fruits and grapes from Armenia effective July 2.
The ban covers cherries, sour cherries, apricots, plums, peaches and nectarines, among other products.
On the same day, a temporary suspension was also introduced on certification procedures for live fish shipments from Armenia. Russian authorities had previously restricted the entry of flower products originating from Armenia into the Russian market.
In addition, Russia’s Federal Service for Surveillance on Consumer Rights Protection and Human Wellbeing (Rospotrebnadzor) halted the import of all consignments of Jermuk mineral water from Armenia.
In a statement, the agency said levels of bicarbonate, chloride and sulfate ions in the mineral water exceeded established limits and could mislead consumers regarding the product’s medicinal properties.
The Russian regulator argued that the growing number of violations stemmed from the abolition of Armenia’s Agriculture Ministry and the transfer of its responsibilities to the Economy Ministry.
Rosselkhoznadzor further stated that Armenia’s Economy Ministry was experiencing structural problems and was unable to adequately perform the supervisory functions assigned to it.
Diplomacy
Zelenskyy urges US to grant Ukraine license to produce Patriot missiles
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he has asked the United States to grant Ukraine a license to manufacture missiles for the Patriot air defence system.
In a post on social media platform X, Zelenskyy argued that current US production of missile defence interceptors is insufficient and could contribute to crises in different parts of the world.
“Producing 60-65 missiles a month is nothing compared with the challenges we face today. This is no secret, and Russia knows it as well,” Zelenskyy wrote. “We need to expand production. As I requested from the previous US administration, I am asking the current administration to grant Ukraine a license to produce Patriot missiles.”
Zelenskyy said US companies possess advanced technologies that are not available in Ukraine, while Kyiv could contribute its extensive battlefield experience in return.
He also argued that granting such a license would benefit not only Ukraine, but also the Middle East and any country Washington chooses to support.
Washington pledges to maintain defence support
Zelenskyy’s remarks came a day after US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said on May 30 that Washington would continue supporting Ukraine’s defence capabilities and ensure military shipments to Kyiv continue.
“We want them to be able to defend themselves, and we will find a way to help them do that,” Hegseth said.
Several days earlier, Yuriy Ihnat, spokesperson for the Ukrainian Air Force, warned that the country’s air defence forces were experiencing a shortage of missiles.
“Due to certain supply problems, we are practically at starvation levels when it comes to missiles today,” Ihnat said.
Concerns persist over air defence missile stocks
In April, Zelenskyy warned that Ukraine’s stockpile of air defence missiles could be exhausted at any moment.
He said that under current conditions, air defence missiles were more critical for Ukraine than the air defence systems themselves.
Highlighting what he described as a critical shortage of Patriot missiles, Zelenskyy said: “We are facing a deficit now that could hardly be worse.”
Concerns that Ukraine could face a severe shortage of US-made air defence missiles had previously been reported by Reuters.
The situation was expected to worsen as the United States and its allies depleted significant portions of their arsenals during tensions with Iran, a point Zelenskyy also underscored.
In a separate statement in January, Zelenskyy said Ukraine lacked sufficient missiles for both US- and European-made air defence systems.
The Ukrainian leader said he had been forced to personally secure every package of missiles from European countries and the United States.
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