Diplomacy
Trump proposes using private security firms in Ukraine as part of a peace plan
American private security companies could be sent to Ukraine as part of a long-term “peace plan.”
In this context, US President Donald Trump is in discussions with European allies about allowing security companies to help build fortifications to protect American interests in the country.
This plan, reported by The Telegraph, is designed as a solution following the US president’s promise that American troops will not be deployed in Ukraine.
American companies could be sent to help rebuild Ukraine’s front-line defenses and new bases, as well as to protect American businesses.
According to the US, the presence of private security personnel would deter Russia from breaking a future ceasefire.
The plan is being discussed alongside a series of other security guarantees prepared by a coalition led by the United Kingdom and France, which will form the basis of the long-term peace plan.
The final details, which include air policing, training, and Black Sea naval missions, could be announced this weekend following weeks of diplomatic activity after Trump’s talks with Vladimir Putin in Alaska.
Trump’s green light for ‘security guarantees’ gives hope to Europeans
European military planners have accelerated their work after Trump told continental leaders that Putin was open to Western allies offering security guarantees to Ukraine.
The American leader has also agreed to support this mission, which could become one of the most significant overseas missions since the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq.
European officials have said that the key strategy to prevent future conflict is to make the war-damaged Ukrainian armed forces the main deterrent by rebuilding them.
According to the plan, Ukrainian troops will defend a fortified border on the front line, as agreed upon in any peace deal.
Kyiv’s forces will be rearmed and trained by European NATO allies using existing and new mechanisms.
For example, Ukraine could continue to purchase US systems like Patriot air defense batteries or Himars rocket launchers using funds provided by European allies.
Afghanistan and Iraq experience: Private companies on the front lines
Fortifications on the front line and nearby bases could be built by American private military companies, as was done in Iraq and Afghanistan.
The presence of American companies in Ukraine will be seen as a major boost for European powers seeking American support for a final peace agreement.
According to sources, their deployment would mean the White House has a stake in the matter, increasing the deterrent effect against a Russian attack for fear of US retaliation.
Discussions about using American private security companies date back to a joint agreement signed between Washington and Kyiv to extract Ukraine’s rich mineral and rare earth element resources.
The White House continues to oppose sending its own troops to Ukraine but has agreed to provide extensive support to European forces to back any peace agreement.
A British government source argued that private American companies “put American ‘boots on the ground,’ meaning American passport holders, which is an effective deterrent for Putin.”
Trump also hopes to appease his ‘MAGA’ base
Officials stated that by using private security companies, Trump would not only address the concerns of his “MAGA” (Make America Great Again) supporters who are against foreign intervention but also secure another “business deal” to champion.
Some European countries have proposed the idea of creating an unarmed buffer zone to separate Ukrainian and Russian forces once the conflict ends. This zone could be monitored by peacekeepers or observers as agreed upon by Kyiv and Moscow in any peace deal.
Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelenskyy will likely request the deployment of European troops to this zone. The Kremlin has suggested China as a security guarantor in the peace treaty negotiations.
According to the Financial Times (FT), Trump also proposed the deployment of Chinese soldiers as peacekeepers in post-war Ukraine during his meeting with European leaders last week.
The differences between the warring countries mean that this option is unlikely to be accepted by all parties.
This idea, first floated by Putin, was rejected by Europe and had previously been dismissed by Zelenskyy due to Beijing’s “support for Russia’s war effort.”
European countries insist they will not place their soldiers on the front line between the Ukrainian and Russian armies.
Responding to reports about the possibility of a buffer zone, Zelenskyy said that if the Russians want to create more distance between themselves and Ukrainian forces, they can withdraw.
Europe has downsized its proposal for a 30,000-strong force
A European-led force could be deployed deeper inside Ukraine to form a third line of defense should Russia decide to invade.
This force would primarily serve as another deterrent, consisting of thousands of European soldiers.
“The main goal is to show Ukraine that if Russia invades again, we will fight with you,” an official said.
Dozens of countries have informed their counterparts that they are ready to participate in this deployment. These include the United Kingdom, France, Germany, and Belgium, as well as Baltic, Scandinavian, and Nordic countries.
The deployment of approximately 30,000 European soldiers had been previously discussed. A source added that this number appears to have been reduced due to a lack of resources and concerns that it might be perceived as “too powerful” in Putin’s eyes.
Regarding the talks, officials said that offers of support for the mission are often not backed by concrete commitments on how they might participate.
The Telegraph previously reported that this assurance force would only be deployed in Ukraine for 5 to 10 years, or until the involved countries are confident that the Ukrainian military can defend itself.
No-fly zone discussions
European countries are in talks to establish a no-fly zone so that Ukraine can safely reopen its commercial aviation routes.
According to The Telegraph, this plan could be implemented in stages: for example, starting from the west and gradually covering more airspace until the entire country is safe enough for commercial air travel.
Allowing air travel to resume is seen as a key element for boosting investment in the country and is also thought to help refugees return home.
Initially, the mission, which will be carried out using Western fighter jets and ground-based air defense systems, will aim to open Lviv and other Ukrainian airports in the west of the country.
As confidence in the sustainability of ceasefire agreements grows, the mission will be expanded eastward toward Kyiv and other cities.
Türkiye to lead the ‘task force’ in the Black Sea
According to the plans, Türkiye will lead a naval mission in the Black Sea to ensure the security of commercial shipping routes to and from Ukraine.
Kyiv has managed to keep its wartime shipping corridors open, and the operation will re-establish more routes through Western naval patrols.
The mission, supported by Black Sea countries Bulgaria and Romania, will also lead mine-clearing efforts in the waters.
Romania is purchasing naval vessels from Turkish shipyards as it prepares to play a more significant role in the region.
To limit the conflict in the region, Türkiye has blocked access to the Black Sea for both Russian ships and the new vessels promised to Ukraine by Western allies.
European countries will continue to train Ukrainian soldiers
The most likely deployment in Europe will be the relocation of military trainers to new bases in Western Ukraine.
This idea was first proposed last year by French President Emmanuel Macron due to concerns about a large number of Ukrainian soldiers deserting from training camps in his country.
A former US official said the idea was rejected at the time by Joe Biden on the grounds that it risked escalation.
However, this year, the idea has been revived under pressure from Trump to create a peace plan aimed at providing another deterrent against a “new Russian invasion.”
The training forces will also accelerate the process of rearming and restructuring the Ukrainian armed forces to create a “steel hedgehog” effect on the front line.
According to current plans, alongside France’s mission, the United Kingdom’s training program, Operation Interflex, will also likely be moved to Western Ukraine.
Never without the US: The flow of weapons continues
US logistical support for any European military deployment is seen as a prerequisite for the security guarantees.
European officials believe that Washington is receptive to requests for assistance in the form of American heavy-lift aircraft to move equipment and troops east into Ukraine.
This will also help maintain the flow of Western weapons to Ukraine. In recent weeks, European countries have committed to purchasing at least $10 billion worth of American-made military equipment for Kyiv.
Ukraine has also submitted a proposal promising to purchase an additional $90 billion worth of hardware when the war ends.
In preparation, the US State Department had approved a potential sale of air-launched cruise missiles and related equipment to Ukraine for an estimated $825 million.
The potential sale of 3,350 extended-range attack munition (ERAM) missiles, which could be delivered to Kyiv within weeks, includes GPS guidance kits and electronic warfare defense systems for weapons with a range of “several hundred” miles.
The Pentagon announced on Thursday that the package also includes support equipment, mission planning software, spare parts, and technical support.
American intelligence called to duty
Officials said that another prerequisite for any deployment in Europe would be an offer of American intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) support.
European countries lack the necessary satellite capacity to adequately monitor a ceasefire. In addition to supporting local forces, intelligence assistance will be key to the success of the air policing mission.
Trump had temporarily withdrawn ISR support provided to Kyiv following a dispute with Zelenskyy in the Oval Office. This decision was linked to the Ukrainian armed forces rapidly losing their presence in Russia’s Kursk region.
The Pentagon reportedly did not provide the full intelligence needed by Ukraine to conduct cross-border missile strikes, effectively creating an American veto over such plans.
A source told The Telegraph that US officials also asked the British Ministry of Defence not to share intelligence on this matter while Trump’s peace talks with Putin were ongoing.
Europe’s lack of coordination experience is a headache
Europe also lacks experience in coordinating large military missions, a task that has mostly been left to American generals.
European and American officials have discussed the possibility of appointing a US military commander to oversee all deployments under the peace plan.
There is talk that NATO’s top commander, US General Alexus Grynkewich, could be appointed to this role if the idea is approved by Trump.
The White House has already approved his involvement in the recent intensive military planning, which is seen as one of the biggest signs of the president’s support for the security guarantees from European allies.
By giving Grynkewich a larger role, the coalition will benefit from pre-existing plans to defend the continent against Russia and from additional American support for any security guarantees.
Diplomacy
US drafts Ukraine plan with Nord Stream restart and sanctions relief
Draft proposals by the US administration to end the war in Ukraine envisage establishing a demilitarised line in the Donbass region, easing sanctions against Moscow, and offering a comprehensive investment package to Kyiv.
According to a report by the British magazine The Economist, citing Ukrainian officials, Washington is working on a broad framework comprising both economic and political points to persuade the parties to reach a settlement.
Under the draft plan reported by the publication, Russia is offered the opportunity to conclude trade agreements with the US, an easing of sanctions, and the normalisation of political relations.
Ukraine, in exchange for relinquishing its goal of NATO membership, is promised direct foreign investment and European Union accession.
The report notes that Ukrainian officials do not possess complete visibility over every detail of the final text on the table, but are closely familiar with its overarching framework.
Nord Stream pipeline and natural gas shipments on the table
The Economist reported that the package designed to persuade the leadership in Moscow also includes items such as the resumption of Russian natural gas sales to the European market and the reactivation of the Nord Stream pipeline.
The magazine also points out that decisions regarding the operation of a pipeline located on European territory do not fall directly under US jurisdiction.
Ukrainian negotiators, meanwhile, are concerned that the Washington delegation may lock in commercial agreements in line with its own economic interests before the fighting formally stops.
Speaking to the magazine, a Ukrainian official summed up the American side’s approach with the words: ‘Why wait and waste time? Time is money.’
Diplomatic contacts intensify at leadership level
Stating that it is ready for talks, the Russian government announced that an agreement had been reached in recent contacts with Washington to launch a trilateral negotiation process that would also include Ukraine.
Russian President Vladimir Putin said: ‘The objective of these negotiations will be to address the issue of ensuring the security of Ukraine and Russia once peace agreements are reached.’
As part of these diplomatic efforts, US President Donald Trump’s special envoy, Steve Witkoff, met Russian leader Putin on 21 October at the Konstantinovsky Palace in St. Petersburg.
Speaking during the portion of the meeting open to the media, Witkoff noted that he had brought documents outlining a pathway to peace and asked Putin to examine these texts.
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov announced that the president would evaluate the American proposals.
Noting that concrete ground for a ceasefire had emerged during the St. Petersburg meeting, Witkoff expressed hope for the start of trilateral contacts between Russia, the US, and Ukraine to address technical matters.
Putin thanked Trump for his interest in peace efforts and recounted that the US president had specifically emphasized during their recent telephone calls that the war must end as soon as possible.
Framework prepared in Oslo carried to Moscow
Immediately before his visit to St. Petersburg, Witkoff had attended talks held on 20 October in Oslo, the capital of Norway.
Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner joined the meeting remotely due to illness, which was attended by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Finnish President Alexander Stubb, and Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Store.
According to information provided by Stubb, the parties at the Oslo meeting clarified key security and economic elements that the American envoy would present to Moscow. Air defence systems, energy infrastructure, and partial ceasefire measures were also discussed.
Commenting after the talks in St. Petersburg, Russian presidential aide Yury Ushakov argued that the newly presented approaches did not contain many elements useful for a resolution.
Noting that Witkoff informed Putin about the contacts in Oslo and relayed fresh nuances in the positions of European leaders and the Kyiv government, Ushakov stated that the meeting was thorough and frank, adding that the conflict is ‘moving toward an end.’
Diplomacy
South Korea pulls part of embassy staff from Ukraine amid POW dispute
The South Korean government has decided to withdraw part of its embassy staff from Ukraine.
According to the Yonhap news agency, Foreign Ministry spokesman Park Doo-sun cited the Kyiv administration’s failure to take “positive steps” in the dispute that began with the leak of information concerning the handover of North Korean prisoners of war as the justification for the move.
The spokesman also listed the ongoing threat of air strikes, which complicates the safety of diplomats, among the reasons.
Following the withdrawal of part of the personnel, essential diplomatic contacts will continue under the leadership of the charge d’affaires ad interim to Ukraine. All consular staff tasked with protecting South Korean citizens will remain in Ukraine.
Prior to this move, the Seoul administration decided on 8 October to withdraw its ambassador. The Foreign Ministry stated at the time that it was ready to continue consultations with Kyiv to resolve the emerging issues constructively.
Tensions between the two countries began with a speech delivered by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the United Nations General Assembly in September.
Zelenskyy announced that two captured soldiers from the North Korean army had been handed over to South Korea.
South Korean President Lee Jae-myung, meanwhile, accused Kyiv of breaching a confidentiality agreement.
Lee said the disclosure of this information endangered the prisoners’ families and stability on the Korean Peninsula.
Seoul expects a public apology
Dmytro Lytvyn, an adviser to the Ukrainian president, denied the existence of a confidentiality agreement.
The South Korean Foreign Ministry summoned Ukrainian Charge d’Affaires Andriy Veshkin on 28 September and issued a note of protest against Lytvyn’s remarks.
President Lee Jae-myung warned in a statement on 2 October that they would take additional measures against Kyiv if Ukrainian authorities did not acknowledge the agreement and make a public apology. Lee stated that Ukraine itself had initially requested that the transfer of the prisoners be kept confidential.
Ukrainian Foreign Ministry spokesman Heorhii Tykhyi said the dispute stemmed from differing interpretations of the confidentiality regime.
Tykhyi noted that Seoul, based on its constitution which recognises the entire Korean Peninsula as its own territory, requested that the prisoners be handed over “like its own citizens”.
Describing the handover as a “gesture of goodwill”, Tykhyi stated that they were conducting closed-door negotiations to resolve differences of opinion.
Ambassador Park Ki-chang returned to Seoul on 10 October. According to a report by The Korea Times newspaper citing the ministry, recalling the ambassador served as a diplomatic protest against the leak of information regarding the prisoners.
The newspaper wrote that South Korea had last taken a similar step in 2008 by withdrawing its ambassador to Japan.
Moscow warned foreign diplomats
On 3 October, the Russian Foreign Ministry reiterated its warning to foreign nationals, including diplomatic mission staff, against remaining in Ukraine.
The ministry recalled its advice to leave Kyiv, citing ongoing strikes against military targets.
The ministry noted that those who failed to heed the warnings would bear responsibility for the potential consequences.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said in a statement on 24 September that they had no information regarding Kyiv handing over two North Korean prisoners of war to Seoul.
Peskov, noting that prisoner matters fall under the authority of the Defence Ministry and intelligence services, said, “Contacts through the special services are continuing.”
Diplomacy
Ex-BND head Hanning tied to former Mossad chief amid spy inquiry
August Hanning, who led Germany’s Federal Intelligence Service (BND) between 1998 and 2005, was arrested on 6 October on allegations that he obtained roughly 2,000 classified agency documents and used them during contacts with intelligence officers from a foreign state.
Accused of high treason and espionage on behalf of a foreign intelligence agency, the former spy chief is alleged to have procured the documents from former BND employee Manfred D.
Prosecutors stated that the leaked records included internal briefing notes presented to senior German officials, though the Berlin government has not yet publicly disclosed which country received the classified data.
According to an exclusive report by Jake Green for The Cradle, seized email exchanges revealed extensive ties between the arrested Hanning and former Mossad director Danny Yatom.
The correspondence shows that the two former intelligence directors built an ongoing network of contacts following their public service, combining commercial ventures, efforts to secure political influence, and intelligence links.
This dynamic has triggered debate that using personal connections and official access for private gain has left Germany’s intelligence apparatus vulnerable.
Intelligence notes for 10,000 euros and campaign proposals
According to the reviewed emails, Hanning told Yatom in a 2018 message that he could prepare an “overall assessment based on information obtained from senior German officials and intelligence agencies” concerning an unidentified candidate.
The former BND head committed to completing the report by 13 July in exchange for 10,000 euros.
Contacts between the two men subsequently expanded to cover domestic political processes in Germany. Ahead of the September 2021 federal election, Yatom asked Hanning to approach leading candidates.
Describing CIY Global as a “political campaign company”, the former Mossad chief noted that he aimed to introduce its capabilities to German politicians, and he mentioned his intention in the same exchange to transfer documents concerning a cybersecurity firm.
Cybersecurity partnership and surveillance operations across Europe
The partnership between Yatom and Hanning reached beyond political lobbying initiatives into the cybersecurity sector.
Hanning reportedly served as a consultant for World Health Energy Holdings, a cybersecurity company linked to Yatom.
Firms of this type, established or managed by former intelligence personnel, provide commercial platforms on the international market for Israeli-origin surveillance, cyber intelligence, and political influence capabilities.
The operational presence of private Israeli-based surveillance technologies across Europe has recently entered judicial records through scandals in Poland, Spain, and Greece.
Polish prosecutors announced on 12 October that data collected under the previous government via Pegasus spyware against political opponents had been transferred out of the country, adding that manufacturer NSO Group maintained access to the technical infrastructure.
In Spain, the 2022 CatalanGate investigation established that at least 65 people, including politicians, lawyers, and civil society representatives, were targeted using Pegasus or Candiru software, with Citizen Lab researchers publishing strong evidence linking the operation to Spanish authorities.
In Greece, the surveillance operation targeting journalist Thanasis Koukakis and Member of the European Parliament Nikos Androulakis was determined to have used Predator software, linked to Intellexa, a company founded by former Israeli intelligence officer Tal Dilian.
In the German espionage investigation, the traffic between Hanning and Yatom involving paid reporting, contacts with electoral candidates, and commercial partnerships does not yet provide conclusive legal evidence regarding the final destination of the roughly 2,000 classified documents.
Nevertheless, the disclosed correspondence gives German investigators a concrete line of inquiry to assess whether classified state secrets reached commercial networks tied to Israeli intelligence.
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