Diplomacy
Trump proposes using private security firms in Ukraine as part of a peace plan
American private security companies could be sent to Ukraine as part of a long-term “peace plan.”
In this context, US President Donald Trump is in discussions with European allies about allowing security companies to help build fortifications to protect American interests in the country.
This plan, reported by The Telegraph, is designed as a solution following the US president’s promise that American troops will not be deployed in Ukraine.
American companies could be sent to help rebuild Ukraine’s front-line defenses and new bases, as well as to protect American businesses.
According to the US, the presence of private security personnel would deter Russia from breaking a future ceasefire.
The plan is being discussed alongside a series of other security guarantees prepared by a coalition led by the United Kingdom and France, which will form the basis of the long-term peace plan.
The final details, which include air policing, training, and Black Sea naval missions, could be announced this weekend following weeks of diplomatic activity after Trump’s talks with Vladimir Putin in Alaska.
Trump’s green light for ‘security guarantees’ gives hope to Europeans
European military planners have accelerated their work after Trump told continental leaders that Putin was open to Western allies offering security guarantees to Ukraine.
The American leader has also agreed to support this mission, which could become one of the most significant overseas missions since the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq.
European officials have said that the key strategy to prevent future conflict is to make the war-damaged Ukrainian armed forces the main deterrent by rebuilding them.
According to the plan, Ukrainian troops will defend a fortified border on the front line, as agreed upon in any peace deal.
Kyiv’s forces will be rearmed and trained by European NATO allies using existing and new mechanisms.
For example, Ukraine could continue to purchase US systems like Patriot air defense batteries or Himars rocket launchers using funds provided by European allies.
Afghanistan and Iraq experience: Private companies on the front lines
Fortifications on the front line and nearby bases could be built by American private military companies, as was done in Iraq and Afghanistan.
The presence of American companies in Ukraine will be seen as a major boost for European powers seeking American support for a final peace agreement.
According to sources, their deployment would mean the White House has a stake in the matter, increasing the deterrent effect against a Russian attack for fear of US retaliation.
Discussions about using American private security companies date back to a joint agreement signed between Washington and Kyiv to extract Ukraine’s rich mineral and rare earth element resources.
The White House continues to oppose sending its own troops to Ukraine but has agreed to provide extensive support to European forces to back any peace agreement.
A British government source argued that private American companies “put American ‘boots on the ground,’ meaning American passport holders, which is an effective deterrent for Putin.”
Trump also hopes to appease his ‘MAGA’ base
Officials stated that by using private security companies, Trump would not only address the concerns of his “MAGA” (Make America Great Again) supporters who are against foreign intervention but also secure another “business deal” to champion.
Some European countries have proposed the idea of creating an unarmed buffer zone to separate Ukrainian and Russian forces once the conflict ends. This zone could be monitored by peacekeepers or observers as agreed upon by Kyiv and Moscow in any peace deal.
Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelenskyy will likely request the deployment of European troops to this zone. The Kremlin has suggested China as a security guarantor in the peace treaty negotiations.
According to the Financial Times (FT), Trump also proposed the deployment of Chinese soldiers as peacekeepers in post-war Ukraine during his meeting with European leaders last week.
The differences between the warring countries mean that this option is unlikely to be accepted by all parties.
This idea, first floated by Putin, was rejected by Europe and had previously been dismissed by Zelenskyy due to Beijing’s “support for Russia’s war effort.”
European countries insist they will not place their soldiers on the front line between the Ukrainian and Russian armies.
Responding to reports about the possibility of a buffer zone, Zelenskyy said that if the Russians want to create more distance between themselves and Ukrainian forces, they can withdraw.
Europe has downsized its proposal for a 30,000-strong force
A European-led force could be deployed deeper inside Ukraine to form a third line of defense should Russia decide to invade.
This force would primarily serve as another deterrent, consisting of thousands of European soldiers.
“The main goal is to show Ukraine that if Russia invades again, we will fight with you,” an official said.
Dozens of countries have informed their counterparts that they are ready to participate in this deployment. These include the United Kingdom, France, Germany, and Belgium, as well as Baltic, Scandinavian, and Nordic countries.
The deployment of approximately 30,000 European soldiers had been previously discussed. A source added that this number appears to have been reduced due to a lack of resources and concerns that it might be perceived as “too powerful” in Putin’s eyes.
Regarding the talks, officials said that offers of support for the mission are often not backed by concrete commitments on how they might participate.
The Telegraph previously reported that this assurance force would only be deployed in Ukraine for 5 to 10 years, or until the involved countries are confident that the Ukrainian military can defend itself.
No-fly zone discussions
European countries are in talks to establish a no-fly zone so that Ukraine can safely reopen its commercial aviation routes.
According to The Telegraph, this plan could be implemented in stages: for example, starting from the west and gradually covering more airspace until the entire country is safe enough for commercial air travel.
Allowing air travel to resume is seen as a key element for boosting investment in the country and is also thought to help refugees return home.
Initially, the mission, which will be carried out using Western fighter jets and ground-based air defense systems, will aim to open Lviv and other Ukrainian airports in the west of the country.
As confidence in the sustainability of ceasefire agreements grows, the mission will be expanded eastward toward Kyiv and other cities.
Türkiye to lead the ‘task force’ in the Black Sea
According to the plans, Türkiye will lead a naval mission in the Black Sea to ensure the security of commercial shipping routes to and from Ukraine.
Kyiv has managed to keep its wartime shipping corridors open, and the operation will re-establish more routes through Western naval patrols.
The mission, supported by Black Sea countries Bulgaria and Romania, will also lead mine-clearing efforts in the waters.
Romania is purchasing naval vessels from Turkish shipyards as it prepares to play a more significant role in the region.
To limit the conflict in the region, Türkiye has blocked access to the Black Sea for both Russian ships and the new vessels promised to Ukraine by Western allies.
European countries will continue to train Ukrainian soldiers
The most likely deployment in Europe will be the relocation of military trainers to new bases in Western Ukraine.
This idea was first proposed last year by French President Emmanuel Macron due to concerns about a large number of Ukrainian soldiers deserting from training camps in his country.
A former US official said the idea was rejected at the time by Joe Biden on the grounds that it risked escalation.
However, this year, the idea has been revived under pressure from Trump to create a peace plan aimed at providing another deterrent against a “new Russian invasion.”
The training forces will also accelerate the process of rearming and restructuring the Ukrainian armed forces to create a “steel hedgehog” effect on the front line.
According to current plans, alongside France’s mission, the United Kingdom’s training program, Operation Interflex, will also likely be moved to Western Ukraine.
Never without the US: The flow of weapons continues
US logistical support for any European military deployment is seen as a prerequisite for the security guarantees.
European officials believe that Washington is receptive to requests for assistance in the form of American heavy-lift aircraft to move equipment and troops east into Ukraine.
This will also help maintain the flow of Western weapons to Ukraine. In recent weeks, European countries have committed to purchasing at least $10 billion worth of American-made military equipment for Kyiv.
Ukraine has also submitted a proposal promising to purchase an additional $90 billion worth of hardware when the war ends.
In preparation, the US State Department had approved a potential sale of air-launched cruise missiles and related equipment to Ukraine for an estimated $825 million.
The potential sale of 3,350 extended-range attack munition (ERAM) missiles, which could be delivered to Kyiv within weeks, includes GPS guidance kits and electronic warfare defense systems for weapons with a range of “several hundred” miles.
The Pentagon announced on Thursday that the package also includes support equipment, mission planning software, spare parts, and technical support.
American intelligence called to duty
Officials said that another prerequisite for any deployment in Europe would be an offer of American intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) support.
European countries lack the necessary satellite capacity to adequately monitor a ceasefire. In addition to supporting local forces, intelligence assistance will be key to the success of the air policing mission.
Trump had temporarily withdrawn ISR support provided to Kyiv following a dispute with Zelenskyy in the Oval Office. This decision was linked to the Ukrainian armed forces rapidly losing their presence in Russia’s Kursk region.
The Pentagon reportedly did not provide the full intelligence needed by Ukraine to conduct cross-border missile strikes, effectively creating an American veto over such plans.
A source told The Telegraph that US officials also asked the British Ministry of Defence not to share intelligence on this matter while Trump’s peace talks with Putin were ongoing.
Europe’s lack of coordination experience is a headache
Europe also lacks experience in coordinating large military missions, a task that has mostly been left to American generals.
European and American officials have discussed the possibility of appointing a US military commander to oversee all deployments under the peace plan.
There is talk that NATO’s top commander, US General Alexus Grynkewich, could be appointed to this role if the idea is approved by Trump.
The White House has already approved his involvement in the recent intensive military planning, which is seen as one of the biggest signs of the president’s support for the security guarantees from European allies.
By giving Grynkewich a larger role, the coalition will benefit from pre-existing plans to defend the continent against Russia and from additional American support for any security guarantees.
Diplomacy
FIFA abandons $4.2 billion commercial stake sale following widespread revolt
FIFA and Gianni Infantino have backed down from plans to sell a stake in the organization’s commercial and event operations following widespread backlash.
In a statement issued late Friday night, the embattled FIFA president said:
“After carefully listening to all views, it has become clear that this project, regardless of the level of support, causes divisions that are now contrary to the interests of the objective originally established. Our goal has always been, and will always be, to unite and improve. As a result, this proposal will not be implemented.”
Infantino’s proposal met with fierce resistance from UEFA, CONCACAF, and the Asian Football Confederation (AFC).
UEFA indicated that all 55 of its members would boycott FIFA competitions, including the World Cup, if the plans remained on the table.
In its statement, FIFA noted that “nobody is selling football,” and while asserting that it “acknowledges and respects the feedback and concerns expressed publicly,” emphasized that it would continue to implement suggestions.
It added that it “reaffirms its commitment to an open and democratic process of consultation.”
Shortly after FIFA issued its statement, the AFC released its own declaration of solidarity with UEFA and the Confederation of North, Central America and Caribbean Association Football (CONCACAF).
Infantino subsequently suffered two major internal blows.
First, his adviser Carlos Cordeiro resigned from his position, sharply criticizing the plan in a statement as “a bad deal for FIFA member associations, a bad deal for football, and a bad deal for the long-term future of the game.”
Then, FIFA Chief Operating Officer Kevin Lamour told the Associated Press that staff felt “deceived” by Infantino and that after raising the issue, he would “sleep better, even at the cost of losing his job.”
Lamour said:
“This is the project of a single person. Leaving aside that this project should not proceed… it is now time for the political leaders of world football to ask themselves the right questions and make the right decisions.”
These developments left Infantino cornered, and by Friday afternoon, numerous figures within the organization—speaking to The Athletic on condition of anonymity to protect their jobs—believed it was no longer a question of “if” the cord would be cut, but “when.”
Joshua Kushner’s venture capital firm Thrive had not withdrawn from the deal as of Friday night, but that became moot when FIFA management ultimately decided to kill the project via a public statement.
Joshua Kushner is the brother of Jared Kushner, the son-in-law of Donald Trump.
On Tuesday, world football’s governing body had announced its intention to establish FIFA Forward Enterprises (FFE), a new private entity to manage its flagship events, including the World Cup and the Club World Cup, with plans to sell a 21% minority stake in FFE to external investors.
The sale was targeted to generate $4.2 billion (£3.2 billion) in revenue. FIFA stated that this amount could be immediately distributed to its 211 member associations under a new funding stream named the “FIFA Fast-Forward Program” (FFFP).
Under the plan, FIFA’s total development funding would have exceeded $10 billion over the next four years.
Despite mounting criticism in recent days, FIFA confirmed that if member associations opposed the FFE plan but the proposal was accepted, the dissenting federations would each receive $20 million (£14.9 million) for the 2027–30 cycle, regardless of whether shares in FFE were sold to private investors (to be followed by $22 million for 2031–34 and $24 million for 2035–38).
However, had a given member association accepted the FFE proposal, it would have received $40 million for the 2027–30 period, with subsequent payouts remaining the same.
The three confederations that explicitly took a stand against FIFA’s plan represent 137 of the 211 FIFA member associations.
FIFA had stated that for the proposal to move forward, it required the approval of a majority of the 211 member associations as well as the 37-member FIFA Council, which consists of Infantino and eight FIFA vice presidents.
Strategic reactions and leadership crisis
South American football confederation CONMEBOL did not reject the plans in a statement on Friday, but noted that financial and commercial decisions “must always serve the interests of football and never take precedence over the essence of the game.”
According to a report by The Athletic, Infantino’s future leadership of FIFA was called into question during UEFA and CONCACAF meetings held on Thursday.
Infantino assumed the FIFA presidency in February 2016, succeeding Sepp Blatter, and was expected to run unopposed in the next election scheduled for March 2027.
There is also talk among European officials of putting forward Nasser Al-Khelaifi, the Qatari CEO of beIN Media, to run against Infantino.
Lise Klaveness, President of the Norwegian Football Federation, told VG: “My clear impression right now is that he has suffered a major loss of trust. We did not vote for him last time and were skeptical about this. There are many good aspects to FIFA, but if you take a lax approach to governance principles and rules, you lose trust quickly.”
Diplomacy
Defense Priorities director warns US air strategy in Middle East faces tactical limits
The collapse of a tentative memorandum of understanding between Washington and Tehran, coupled with the diminishing strategic returns of American air power, has left the United States locked in an unsustainable, low-intensity conflict with Iran, according to Benjamin Friedman, Policy Director at the Washington-based think tank Defense Priorities.
Speaking in an interview on the YouTube channel Harici with host Sarp Sinan Hacır, Friedman attributed the failure of the short-lived US-Iran memorandum primarily to the Trump administration’s diplomatic missteps, vague draft language, and unrealistic expectations regarding a comprehensive settlement.
“Both sides really deserve some blame, but the Trump administration deserves the bulk of the blame for drafting an agreement that was so vague on key terms,” Friedman said, citing ambiguities surrounding the timeline for unfreezing Iranian assets and the scope of American commitments to restrain Israeli military operations in Lebanon.
Friedman emphasized that deep-seated mistrust in Tehran, exacerbated by repeated instances where diplomatic engagement was followed by Israeli or American military strikes, led Iranian negotiators to adopt an unyielding posture. At the same time, he noted that Iran likely miscalculated by using disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz to aggressively force leverage.
“The Trump administration remained intent on this sort of grand bargain that would restrain Iran seeking weapons development… and I think they continue to misread the Iranian willingness to sign that kind of deal,” Friedman noted, adding that Tehran viewed its leverage over the Strait of Hormuz as essential despite the risk of provoking further strikes.
Expressing deep skepticism over the prospects for a lasting diplomatic breakthrough, Friedman criticized the administration’s reliance on informal envoys such as Steve Bannon and Jared Kushner over professional diplomatic channels, predicting that the baseline outcome will remain an unpredictable, episodic conflict.
“What’s more likely is a kind of on-off-again kind of war—sort of what we’re in now, where we have occasional strikes, with the United States perhaps by accident adopting the Israeli model of ‘mowing the lawn’ periodically,” Friedman said.
Addressing the efficacy of US air power, Friedman argued that military operations against Iranian targets have reached a point of diminishing returns. While early strikes successfully eliminated critical high-value assets—such as over-the-horizon radar systems that targeted anti-ship missiles—Iran’s ballistic missile and long-range drone capabilities remain largely intact and operational.
He pointed to a recent strike on a base hosting US personnel in Jordan, launched from western Iran over a distance exceeding 1,000 kilometers, as evidence of Tehran’s sustained strike precision and the tactical limits of American interdiction efforts.
“The war is a failure for air power even in a tactical sense,” Friedman stated. “Initially, we looked at it and said we had a lot of success in destroying targets, but as more information came out, it turned out they had maybe more than half of their missiles and launchers survive the initial phase of the war.”
Friedman observed that the global proliferation of low-cost, high-precision guidance technology has permanently altered the strategic landscape, neutralizing the traditional invulnerability of forward-deployed US installations. “The precise effects of air power that used to be almost a monopoly of the United States… is actually making our posture in the region less sustainable,” he said, warning that similar vulnerabilities would be vastly amplified in any potential high-intensity conflict with China.
As an alternative to open-ended military engagement, Friedman suggested that Washington consider a complete military withdrawal from the region, even if it entails accepting Iranian transit fees on commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. “The cost of preventing that through perpetual outbursts of warfare is much higher than just accepting it,” he noted.
Turning to regional dynamics, Friedman addressed Israel’s current absence from active strike operations against Iran, characterizing it as a calculated move to preserve its own air defense interceptors while relying on Washington to bear the operational and political burdens of containment.
On European security and the broader alliance structure, Friedman offered a critical assessment of the NATO summit in Ankara and the administration’s “NATO 3.0” concept. He described the white paper led by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth as an effort to coerce European states into escalating defense expenditures and purchasing American hardware under the threat of reduced security guarantees, rather than executing a structured, strategic US posture adjustment.
“This is not a real US withdrawal; it’s a kind of pressure to up your loyalty in a particular way,” Friedman said, noting that major European powers such as Germany, France, and the UK lack a compelling existential incentive to construct independent, large-scale conventional war-fighting capabilities.
Regarding bilateral relations with Ankara, Friedman noted that US-Turkish tensions have eased considerably following the shift in American posture in Syria and progress toward resolving long-standing friction points, including the F-35 program and S-400 procurement. He added that while Israeli leadership under Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has expressed frustration over Washington’s constructive engagement with President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, the White House has maintained its strategic course despite pressure from domestic pro-Israel lobbying groups.
Addressing internal Republican Party dynamics, Friedman highlighted the evolving public stance of Vice President J.D. Vance, whose cautious criticism of Israeli influence and emphasis on divergent national interests reflects broader ideological shifts within the conservative base.
“Vance is more representative of the shift in the Republican Party,” Friedman said. “He’s criticizing them in a limited way and saying, ‘Our interests are different.’ From the perspective of those of us who would like the United States to have a more distant relationship from Israel, it’s progress.”
Looking ahead to the upcoming US midterm elections, Friedman anticipated that a loss of congressional control by the Republican Party would severely curtail the administration’s domestic executive overreach, though its structural impact on foreign policy execution and Middle Eastern operations would remain comparatively limited.
Diplomacy
UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham pledges full support to Ukraine in meeting with Zelenskyy
UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham has met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Portsmouth, England.
Zelenskyy is the first world leader Burnham has met in person since taking office, with the prime minister committing to building a “firm partnership” between the United Kingdom and Ukraine.
Demonstrating their support, the two leaders toured a military base in Portsmouth where 200 Ukrainian troops are currently undergoing naval training exercises.
Burnham described his meeting with the Ukrainian president as “warm” and said he plans to visit Ukraine soon.
“We will build this together and address the various issues President Zelenskyy is facing, many of which we discussed today,” Burnham said.
The meeting follows an announcement by London that it will share intellectual property rights to assist Kyiv’s war effort.
The new prime minister announced that the UK will share the “Stone Cloak” electronic warfare system—which is fitted to drones to prevent detection—and will assist Ukraine in mass-producing the technology.
Burnham has focused primarily on domestic matters since replacing Keir Starmer, who faced criticism from elements within his own party for spending too much time abroad and focusing heavily on foreign affairs.
However, Burnham sought to signal continuity in Britain’s policy toward Ukraine. In one of his first phone calls after becoming prime minister last week, Burnham invited Zelenskyy to visit the UK “as soon as possible.”
Starmer spent his final full day as prime minister in Kyiv, where he announced £255 million in funding for Ukraine.
Speaking to Sky on Monday, Zelenskyy said his telephone conversation with Burnham had been “very good.”
The Ukrainian leader noted that Starmer had previously assured him that “the new government would maintain the policy of supporting Ukraine during the war.”
The new prime minister told the Ukrainian leader it was “no coincidence” that he was his first international visitor since moving into Downing Street.
“The purpose of this is to send a very clear message. We stand 100% with Ukraine, I personally stand 100% with you, and I will fully deliver on every commitment this country has made to Ukraine,” Burnham said.
-
America2 weeks agoUS controls $13 billion in Venezuelan oil revenues with little transparency, raising congressional concerns
-
America2 weeks agoUS agricultural superpower status at risk as trade wars shift global markets to Brazil
-
Diplomacy2 weeks agoPalantir CEO Alex Karp says he would not vote for ‘pro-Russian’ AfD in Germany
-
Europe2 weeks agoUS secures multi-billion-dollar energy and AI deals at Three Seas summit in Dubrovnik
-
Diplomacy2 weeks agoWorld Bank warns US-Iran conflict could slash global growth to 1.3% as inflation looms
-
Middle East2 weeks agoPentagon faces severe budget crunch as Middle East operational costs drain key military funds
-
Europe2 weeks agoGermany accelerates African energy diplomatic push to secure natural gas and green hydrogen
-
Middle East2 weeks agoOil passes $90 as tanker attacks halt Hormuz shipping
