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Europe confronts nuclear future: French umbrella or German bomb?

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Amid concerns that the US may withdraw from the continent, a debate has begun in Europe over France’s nuclear umbrella and the possibility of Germany producing its own nuclear bomb.

French President Emmanuel Macron is pursuing a proposal to bring other European countries, including Germany, under a “nuclear umbrella” based on French nuclear bombs, modeled after the US system.

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk announced today during the signing of a France-Poland cooperation agreement that “serious talks” on this matter are already underway. Macron announced that similar discussions will be held with other countries.

Efforts to find an alternative to US nuclear weapons are also ongoing in Berlin, and these efforts have intensified since Chancellor Friedrich Merz raised the possibility of talks with Paris and London on February 21.

Leading German media outlets have also recently raised the issue of arming Germany with its own “German bomb,” which would violate the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons and the Two Plus Four Treaty. AfD politicians support this idea.

However, the ruling parties in Berlin are currently pushing for a “European solution.” It remains unclear how Berlin’s participation in decisions regarding the use of nuclear weapons would be ensured.

German media calls for ‘breaking old chains’

The debate over maintaining the current US nuclear umbrella over Europe or replacing it with a separate European nuclear umbrella first began last November during the US presidential elections, then reignited on January 20 with the inauguration of President Donald Trump.

From time to time, calls are made for Germany to act alone and acquire nuclear weapons. For example, an influential article published in the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (FAZ) argued that there were “good reasons” why the Two Plus Four Treaty is “no longer valid,” given that it did not permit the Federal Republic of Germany to possess nuclear weapons, and that Germany should “break old chains.”

Around the same time, public opinion polls were published showing that while nuclear armament for the Federal Republic had not yet gained majority support, it was backed by a growing segment of the population.

German media, recalling that the production of nuclear bombs is also being discussed in other countries like South Korea and Poland, emphasized that Berlin possesses sufficient uranium enrichment technology to produce nuclear weapons.

AfD support for ‘German bomb’

More influential politicians have not yet joined the call for a German bomb. Karl-Heinz Kamp, former president of the Federal Academy for Security Policy (BAKS) and currently working for the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP), recently stated that the Federal Republic of Germany has “bindingly renounced” the option of “developing its own nuclear weapons,” which is being discussed in the media.

Although Kamp argues that there is currently no politically serious voice in Berlin seeking to change this, explicit calls for the German bomb are now coming from the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party.

For example, in March, Rüdiger Lucassen, the AfD’s defense policy spokesperson in the Bundestag, said, “Germany needs its own nuclear weapons.”

The AfD member, who wants Berlin to “acquire its own nuclear deterrence capability,” stated that this should be done “within the framework of Europe’s strategic autonomy.”

This demand was echoed by Sergeant Hannes Gnauck, an AfD Member of Parliament and a member of his party’s defense working group. Gnauck said, “Germany needs its own nuclear protection shield.”

European option in practice, German bomb in emergencies

Some time ago, Thorsten Benner, director of the Global Public Policy Institute (GPPi) in Berlin, proposed a different approach.

Benner advised that “in emergencies, the basic scientific and technological capacities should be maintained to pursue a German nuclear bomb project,” but that in political practice, a “European option” should be sought.

Kamp is also insistent on this point. He notes that the Trinity House Treaty, signed between the UK and Germany in October 2024, provides for bilateral “dialogue on nuclear issues.”

French President Emmanuel Macron had also advocated for dialogue on the use of the Force de Frappe (deterrent force) to create a nuclear umbrella over the EU “at an early stage.”

Kamp now suggests that Germany could contribute to the “significant costs of France’s and Britain’s nuclear capabilities.” This would, of course, require establishing a “direct link between the nuclear weapon capabilities of both countries and the security of Germany and Europe,” and regulating this with “legally binding bilateral treaties.”

According to Kamp, this would also give Berlin direct influence over French and British nuclear weapons.

Joint nuclear war maneuvers

In recent days, Macron has given new impetus to the plan to bring EU countries under the protection of French or Franco-British nuclear weapons.

Macron has long supported this plan, arguing that French national interests, protected by French nuclear weapons, have now acquired a “European dimension.”

Paris noted with interest Merz’s statement on February 21 that “Europe may need to become more independent from the US in nuclear terms.” Merz had said he wanted to negotiate this issue with Paris and London.

Visiting Portugal at the end of February, Macron reaffirmed the “European dimension” of France’s core interests, which are central to the expansion of the nuclear umbrella.

Experts quickly advanced the public debate. For example, in early March, it was said that it would take years to produce enough new nuclear warheads to deploy nuclear weapons in other European countries according to the US nuclear sharing model.

However, it is pointed out that joint nuclear war maneuvers, for example, could be carried out in the short term.

French nuclear deterrence could be extended to Poland

The plan already appears to be gaining traction. France and Poland have signed a friendship and cooperation agreement (Traité de Nancy) that provides for closer arms and military cooperation and includes a mutual assistance clause.

This agreement is considered the counterpart to the Traités de Londres signed with the United Kingdom in 2010, the Traité d’Aix-la-Chapelle signed with Germany in 2019, the Traité du Quirinal signed with Italy in 2021, and the Traité de Barcelone signed with Spain in 2023.

The mutual assistance clause allows for discussion of extending France’s nuclear deterrence to Poland. As Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk confirmed on Friday, his government is currently conducting “serious talks” with Paris on this matter.

In an interview on Tuesday, Macron reiterated that he wants to discuss participation in France’s nuclear deterrence with “all partners who wish to do so,” and said he would intensify talks in the coming weeks and months.

Macron added that there are three conditions for his country: France will not pay for the security of others; it will not deploy nuclear weapons it needs for itself; and the decision to use the French nuclear bomb will belong solely to the President of France.

Currently, it seems unlikely that Berlin would agree to extend France’s nuclear umbrella to Germany under the condition that it has no say in any decision regarding its use.

On the other hand, the joint financing voiced by Kamp could provide a certain degree of joint decision-making.

Europe

Hungary’s new PM Magyar vows absolute ban on illegal migration, challenging Brussels over fines

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Hungary’s newly elected Prime Minister Péter Magyar has pledged to block all illegal migration, reject European Union quotas, and challenge Brussels’ punitive fines, signaling a highly restrictive border policy even as he vows to restore ties with European partners.

In his first interview with the German newspaper Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung since taking office, Magyar outlined his administration’s strategic roadmap. He addressed the smear campaigns directed against him by the former government of Viktor Orbán, relations with the EU, migration policy, and the economic necessity of maintaining energy ties with Russia.

Reflecting on his transition to power, Magyar noted that the Orbán administration targeted him, his family, and his colleagues during a highly polarized campaign.

“I have known Viktor Orbán for a long time. What happened during the election campaign was no surprise to me, even if it might be difficult to imagine in other countries,” Magyar said. “The mudslinging campaign was not just directed at me personally, but also against my family, my colleagues, and my friends. However, those who faced each other were not Hungarians against Hungarians; it was Viktor Orbán and his vassals standing against the Hungarian nation. One of our most important campaign promises is that we will do everything we can to reunite the Hungarian nation.”

Despite running a pro-European campaign to secure victory, Magyar acknowledged fundamental disagreements with Brussels, particularly on migration. He argued that former Prime Minister Orbán’s hardline stance during the 2015 European migrant crisis was correct.

“My government will pursue an extremely strict and decisive policy regarding illegal migration,” Magyar said. “You can be as angry with Viktor Orbán as you want—and no one has criticized him more than I have—but when the migration crisis began in 2015, he was right. Many member states have now admitted they made wrong decisions at the time. In any case, we will protect our homeland, our country’s borders, and the external borders of Europe.”

“Hungary will not accept any illegal migrants”

Responding to whether Hungary would comply with newly implemented EU asylum rules, which mandate member states to conduct processing procedures at external borders, Magyar delivered a firm refusal regarding quotas and penalties.

“I can only say this: Hungary will not accept any illegal migrants. We will not pay any penalties for this either,” Magyar said. “However, we will help protect Europe’s external borders, whether in Greece, Malta, or Italy. The 2015 migration crisis must be a lesson for Europe. The most important duty of European politicians is to protect the safety of the people. I believe there are many ways to stop illegal migration without violating European Union rules. It is simply a matter of being able to negotiate.”

Magyar also dismissed the current relevance of a European Court of Justice ruling imposing a daily fine of 1 million euros on Hungary for failing to implement EU asylum procedures, arguing the decision is outdated.

“The court’s decision was made at a very different time and under a different legal framework,” Magyar said. “Today, we are in a completely different situation. This decision no longer reflects today’s reality. Today, there are many countries acting just like Hungary, yet this European Court of Justice decision does not apply to them. I find this incredibly unfair. In order to protect our borders and avoid having to pay the daily fine of 1 million euros, we will hold talks with our European partners and find a common solution.”

While acknowledging that the judicial ruling is final and cannot be appealed, Magyar described the financial burden on Hungarian citizens as unjust.

“The decision cannot be appealed. We are looking for new rules and opportunities to avoid paying the fine,” he said. “It is unfair and disproportionate that the people of Hungary must pay a fine of 1 million euros every day. Similarly, it is a great injustice that while other member states receive these funds, Hungary has been provided with no financial resources for the wire fence it constructed to protect the external border of the European Union.”

“Exclusion only makes the far-right stronger”

Magyar strongly opposed pushback from member states—particularly pressure from Germany—to transition EU foreign policy decision-making from unanimity to qualified majority voting, defending the preservation of national sovereignty.

While rejecting the confrontational rhetoric favored by Orbán toward Brussels, Magyar emphasized the importance of compromise among sovereign states.

“I served as a diplomat within the European Union for a long time, and I know very well how difficult it is to reach a consensus among 27 countries. Yet, most of the time, this is achieved,” Magyar said. “Orbán always said, ‘We must defeat Brussels.’ I do not think that is the point. The point is to understand each other, to persuade, and not to try to defeat one another. People do not want a United States of Europe; they want a European Union based on strong member states. For this reason, I do not support transitioning to a majority voting system in many areas instead of the unanimity rule at this stage. We will negotiate and find a middle ground.”

Addressing the political rise of far-right parties across Europe, particularly in France and Germany, Magyar criticized traditional political elites for being disconnected from public anxieties and relying on political moralizing.

He warned that isolating these populist movements is counterproductive.

“I do not like labels like far-right or far-left. I do not like ideological wars,” Magyar said. “People deserve more than politically correct speeches where ideological labels are slapped on one another. I have no intention of interfering in the internal affairs of other member states, and I will not do so; on this point, I differ from Orbán. However, I observe that some countries make mistakes in combating extremist parties. In many countries, politicians do not act honestly. They do not understand people’s fears and expectations, and they do not dare to talk openly about problems and face them. They use the language of political correctness and, at the end of the day, fail to grasp reality itself. These are precisely the mistakes that certain groups exploit. Excluding these people and these parties, building a wall of isolation around them, is not a solution on its own. Exclusion only makes these forces stronger. In many countries, these mistakes have been recognized, but not yet everywhere.”

Asked if this critique applied to Germany, Magyar maintained his criticism of governing establishments.

“In many countries, the political, media, and economic elites protect their own positions and do not always address the real fears and problems of the people. But the public does not forget this. That is why what we need is honesty, honesty, and once again, honesty,” he said.

On the debate over whether conservative factions in the European Parliament should cooperate with the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, Magyar shared his perspective on the future strategy of the European People’s Party (EPP), which includes his own party, Tisza.

“In the European Parliament, political forces must always seek a majority, and grand coalitions between the center-left and center-right can function. Germany and Austria are good examples of this,” Magyar said. “However, this does not always work, and that is why the CDU/CSU and the European People’s Party, which includes my party Tisza, may have to make a decision one day. In my view, the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) are the natural allies of the European People’s Party. Whether they want to cooperate with the AfD is not my decision to make. However, I believe that talking to one another and listening to the other’s arguments never causes harm. What we accept from each other’s proposals is an entirely separate matter.”

“Europe will partially return to Russian energy after the war”

Defending Hungary’s decision to continue importing crude oil and natural gas from Russia despite the war in Ukraine, Magyar emphasized the country’s landlocked geography and economic constraints.

“The Hungarian people elected me as the Prime Minister of Hungary. My government’s duties include ensuring energy security, security of supply, and the lowest possible energy prices,” Magyar said. “In recent years, Hungary has become one of the poorest and most corrupt countries in the European Union. Three million people live below the poverty line. Our neighbors in the European Union must understand that Hungary is a landlocked country. We are still dependent on Russian oil, and we cannot change this overnight. We have not seen economic growth for years, and we need cheap energy to grow. Of course, we are doing everything we can to diversify our energy resources, but we cannot afford to see our companies’ competitiveness decrease further and Hungarian families’ energy poverty increase. I think Europe will partially turn back to Russian energy resources and lift sanctions when the war ends, because the competitiveness of all of Europe is at stake here. In a future state of peace, no one has an interest in maintaining a new economic and political Cold War. For this, of course, the war must first end.”

While Orbán maintained close ties with American conservative movements and received explicit support from Donald Trump, Magyar indicated that the change in leadership in Budapest would not damage relations with Washington.

“The US is Hungary’s natural ally in NATO and a highly important economic partner. What happened during the election campaign will not change this. We will maintain good relations with every American administration,” Magyar said.

Magyar criticized Orbán’s personal relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin, arguing instead for a pragmatic, non-ideological approach to Moscow in the post-war era.

“I know the role of Russia in Hungarian history very well. I have not forgotten the years 1849 and 1956. In both periods, Russian troops bloodily suppressed the Hungarian freedom movement,” Magyar said. “But on the other hand, the reality is that geography does not change. We must accept this as it is. Therefore, we must develop pragmatic relations with Russia once the war against Ukraine ends. Nonetheless, it is extremely clear that Russia currently poses a security risk to all of Europe. It is unacceptable that people in Europe must live in fear of Russian sabotage or a Russian attack. That is why this war must end, and we must provide international security guarantees to Ukraine. However, Europe can only develop when normalcy returns, and Russia cannot have an interest in a new Cold War becoming permanent on the continent.”

“We can turn a new page with Ukraine”

Magyar pledged to end the hostile state-sponsored propaganda directed at Ukraine by the previous administration, emphasizing his respect for Ukraine’s territorial integrity and his personal involvement in humanitarian efforts.

“We want to build good relations with all our neighbors, not least because a Hungarian minority lives in each of them. This also applies to Ukraine,” Magyar said. “We have always stated that Ukraine is the victim in the Russia-Ukraine war and that Ukraine has the right to its territorial integrity. When the Russians bombed the largest children’s hospital in Kyiv in the summer of 2024, I immediately went to Kyiv with our volunteers and personally delivered the humanitarian aid of the Hungarian people. Right after the attack, we set off in a 30-year-old Ford Transit and reached Kyiv within 20 hours under air raids and missile bombardments. I did not see any other European politician at that bombed hospital. We are currently holding talks with Ukraine at a technical level, and we are working to reach an agreement within a few days to restore and guarantee the language, education, and cultural rights of the 100,000 Hungarians living in Ukraine. Today, we need to clarify certain matters with Ukraine regarding our minority in that country, and I hope we will achieve this in the coming days. Ethnic Hungarians there currently do not have the opportunity to use their mother tongue in their relations with official authorities. However, if we resolve these issues on the basis of mutual interest, we can turn a new page.”

Magyar cautioned that future security guarantees for Ukraine must be concrete and enforceable, unlike previous international agreements.

“In 1994, the famous Budapest Memorandum was signed, in which the US and other major powers guaranteed Ukraine’s independence and integrity. However, these promises were not kept, because empty slogans are of little use,” Magyar said. “Right now, everything is at stake in Ukraine. A large number of people are dying, and it is possible that this country will lose part of its territory. Therefore, Ukraine needs real, enforceable international guarantees.”

However, the Prime Minister reiterated that Hungary would remain militarily uninvolved in the conflict, stating that arms shipments do not constitute a genuine security guarantee.

“I do not believe that weapons are a security guarantee. Security guarantees can only be provided by the international community,” the Hungarian leader concluded. “Hungary cannot play a decisive role here; this is the work of the major powers. We can provide diplomatic and humanitarian aid, and Hungary can also provide a suitable ground for negotiations.”

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EU agrees new deportation rules allowing migrant return centers outside the bloc

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European Union lawmakers and member states have reached agreement on new legislation overhauling rules governing the deportation of asylum seekers.

According to Politico, the agreed text allows asylum applicants whose claims have been rejected to be sent to dedicated return centers established outside the EU.

As a key condition of the deal, measures to establish the return centers are set to be implemented immediately.

The move is said to be of particular importance to the Netherlands and Germany. Other provisions of the legislation are expected to take effect one year later.

The agreement must still receive final approval from both the EU Council and the European Parliament before it can formally enter into force.

European Commissioner for Migration Magnus Brunner said the agreement would help the EU regain control over both those arriving in the bloc and those required to leave it.

According to data from Eurostat, the proportion of migrants denied asylum in the European Union who ultimately leave the bloc remains at around 27%.

“We must give people the feeling again that we have everything under control,” Brunner said.

The new framework grants member states the authority to transfer individuals ordered to leave EU territory to return centers located outside the bloc.

Several member states are already examining the option, while human rights organizations have warned of risks of rights violations and abuse during the process.

The legislation also introduces stricter measures, including home searches, extended detention periods, entry bans, and penalties for individuals deemed security threats or those who refuse to cooperate.

French Member of the European Parliament François-Xavier Bellamy told the publication: “For years, Europe sent the worst possible message: even if you had no right to stay, there was a high likelihood that nothing would happen. That era is ending. If you do not have the right to remain in Europe, you must leave.”

The initiative, however, has faced opposition from lawmakers affiliated with liberal and left-wing groups.

Melissa Camara, a representative of the Greens group, described the agreement as “a legal arsenal serving a xenophobic ideology” and criticized both offshore centers and the detention of minors.

Marta Welander, head of the International Refugee Committee, said the new measures signaled “a troubling new era.”

Welander argued that the rules would normalize migrant raids and increase the risk of people being deported to countries where they could face persecution or torture.

According to available data, the number of migrants living within the European Union reached 64.2 million in 2025. During the same period, the foreign-born population arriving from outside the bloc increased by 2.1 million people annually.

In 2010, the European Union was home to approximately 40 million migrants.

As a result, the migrant population has increased by more than 60% over the past 15 years, while migrants’ share of the EU population has risen to 14.2%.

In December last year, US President Donald Trump said Europe faced the risk of destruction because of the migration policies pursued by European countries.

Trump had previously argued that the continent was facing a wave of migration and that, as a result, Europe was “no longer the Europe it once was.”

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Anthropic invites EU cybersecurity agency to access Mythos AI hacking model

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Anthropic has invited the European Union to access Mythos, its powerful AI-powered hacking tool, by sending an invitation to the bloc’s cybersecurity agency.

A European Commission official said the AI company issued the formal invitation following a meeting with the Commission in San Francisco last Thursday, adding that the EU must now establish a mechanism that would allow access to the model under appropriate security safeguards.

Bloomberg reported on Monday that ENISA, the EU’s cybersecurity agency based in Athens, would be granted access to Mythos.

European Commission spokesperson Thomas Regnier said the Commission had held “several productive meetings with Anthropic” and “welcomes the latest developments regarding potential future access.”

Anthropic unveiled Mythos in early April and warned that the model outperformed most humans in identifying and exploiting cybersecurity vulnerabilities.

The disclosure raised concerns that the model could be used to carry out large-scale attacks against critical and sensitive systems if it fell into the hands of cyber adversaries.

European officials were unable to access the cutting-edge cybersecurity AI technology for weeks, prompting urgent calls from European lawmakers and government officials to secure access.

Cybersecurity officials also urged Europe to develop its own version of the technology.

“This latest development is extremely important in helping us gain a clear understanding of the potential risks. We should not forget that Mythos is not an isolated case and that a new wave of powerful models is entering the market,” Regnier said.

An ENISA official said the agency does not currently have active access to the model but is working to make it operational.

The Commission is developing a formal action plan to respond to powerful AI hacking tools.

According to an industry official, the Commission has indicated that it wants to publish the plan before the summer break.

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