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Europeans agree with Trump that their leaders are weak, new poll finds

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Donald Trump says he wants to reshape politics in Europe, and for many voters in the continent’s major countries, it seems he has already succeeded.

According to participants in the first international POLITICO Poll, Trump’s return to the US presidency is far more significant for voters in Germany, France, and the United Kingdom than the election of their own national leaders.

The online survey, conducted by the London-based independent polling firm Public First, also shows that many Europeans share Trump’s critical assessment of the relative weakness of European leaders, which he expressed in an interview with POLITICO earlier this week.

More than 10,000 people from the US, Canada, and Europe’s three largest economies—Germany, France, and the United Kingdom—participated in the survey.

For leaders like German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and French President Emmanuel Macron, these results are particularly disheartening: their own voters believe they have so far been unable to effectively manage the unpredictable American president.

EU leaders received the worst results. In France, only 11% thought Brussels managed its relations with Trump well, while 47% said the EU leadership handled these relations poorly.

According to responses to the POLITICO poll, the people of France and Germany are pessimistic about the EU’s management of its relationship with US President Donald Trump.

Participants in the post-Brexit United Kingdom expressed less negative views. Prime Minister Keir Starmer received a slightly better score; his performance in managing Trump was rated as neither good nor bad.

Seb Wride, head of polling at Public First, commented:

“These results show how much Trump has influenced political debates over the past year, not just in the US but globally. This is as true for the public as it is for policymakers: the number of people who believe Trump’s election on the other side of the world is more important than the election of their own leaders makes this clear.”

The survey was conducted at an extremely sensitive time for transatlantic relations. The new White House National Security Strategy, announced last week, marks a strong step by the US to shape countries in the region according to its own MAGA ideology.

In an interview with Dasha Burns of POLITICO for a special episode of The Conversation at the White House on Monday, Trump expanded on his message, saying he would support candidates from parties in Europe who share his views, especially on halting immigration.

To reveal Trump’s disruptive impact on international relations since beginning his second term in January, Public First conducted an online survey of 10,510 adults aged 18 and over between December 5 and 9.

The research revealed that more than half of the respondents in Germany and the United Kingdom consider Trump’s election more important than the elections of their own leaders, despite Merz and Starmer having come to power relatively recently.

In France, Germany, and the United Kingdom, people agree that Trump’s re-election has left a significant mark on their own countries, according to their responses to the POLITICO Poll. This impact is even seen as greater than that of their own leaders’ elections.

In Germany, 53% of people believe Trump’s election is more important than Merz’s, while 25% think the German election is more significant.

In the United Kingdom, 54% believe Trump’s return is more important than Keir Starmer’s Labour Party coming to power and ending 14 years of Conservative rule, while 28% think last year’s national government change was more important for the United Kingdom.

French voters were slightly more moderate on this issue, yet 43% still thought Trump’s victory was more important, while 25% believed Macron’s election had a greater impact on France.

However, respondents in Canada were divided. The victory of Mark Carney, who campaigned on a promise to oppose Trump in April, was considered more important than Trump’s return to power by 40% of respondents. Only slightly more (45%) said Trump’s victory was more important for Canada than Carney’s.

In his interview with POLITICO, Trump drew a reaction from politicians in the European Union by describing European leaders as “weak,” even prompting Pope Leo to call on him “not to shatter the transatlantic alliance.”

Researchers found that Europeans largely share Trump’s view that their leaders are weak, at least in comparison to him.

They rated Trump as more “strong and decisive” than their own leaders by a margin of 74% to 26% in Germany, 73% to 27% in France, and 69% to 31% in the United Kingdom.

Canada was again a notable exception: 60% said Carney was stronger and more decisive compared to Trump, while only 40% said the opposite.

However, overall, being a strong and decisive leader is not seen as the most desirable trait among the voters surveyed. In all five countries included in the study, including the US, honesty and transparency are considered far more important.

The pollsters also asked how people rated their own leaders’ handling of the geopolitical turmoil during Trump’s second term.

In France and Germany, the number of people who think their leaders have managed Trump poorly is higher than those who approve: only 24% think Merz has done a good job, while 34% believe he has handled Trump poorly.

Macron’s situation in France was even worse. Only 16% of respondents said he had done a good job, while 39% thought he had mismanaged relations with the White House.

Opinions on Starmer were mixed: 29% believe he has managed relations with Trump well, while an equal percentage thinks he has done so poorly.

The research revealed that Europeans want their leaders to stand up to and challenge Trump, rather than prioritizing getting along with him.

But when asked how their own national leaders should act, Europeans expressed the opposite view, stating that cooperation is more important than challenging the president.

Canadians, however, remained resolute, showing a slight preference for Carney to oppose Trump.

Europe

China’s critical mineral restrictions challenge EU defence expansion plans

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The European Union’s plans to expand its defence capabilities are being hindered by China’s export controls and sales restrictions on critical raw materials.

In response, EU leaders are urging member states to accelerate efforts to diversify supply chains.

According to Nikkei Asia, the European Commission announced last week that it would propose new legislation requiring companies across the bloc to broaden their supplier base in an effort to address economic imbalances, although it did not explicitly name China.

The war in Ukraine and growing uncertainty over Washington’s security guarantees have pushed European governments to increase military spending and defence production.

At the same time, according to a report published in May by Joris Teer, a policy analyst at the European Union Institute for Security Studies (EUISS), China accounts for at least 70% of global mining or refining activity in 17 of the 34 materials classified as critical by the EU. Eight of those 34 materials are currently subject to Chinese export controls.

“China is undermining Europe’s rearmament efforts,” Teer wrote. “Simply by activating this tool, China has already increased its leverage and demonstrated both the capability and willingness to restrict supply whenever it chooses.”

The Aerospace, Security and Defence Industries Association of Europe also warned that geopolitical developments and intensifying global competition for critical raw materials are further underscoring the need to strengthen European supply chains.

The organisation represents more than 4,000 companies, including Britain’s BAE Systems, France’s Thales and Germany’s Rheinmetall.

European defence manufacturers are pursuing a range of strategies, including vertical integration, recycling, diversification and stockpiling.

Rheinmetall told Nikkei Asia that it has “no dependencies” and is “well prepared” regarding critical minerals.

A company spokesperson said: “Rheinmetall has stockpiled key raw materials sufficient for several years. We have also implemented IT systems that allow us to centrally monitor and precisely manage raw material consumption across the entire group.”

Analysts, however, caution that stockpiling alone will not be sufficient. Maria Shagina, a researcher at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, said: “Stockpiling serves as an important buffer against sudden disruptions, but on its own it is unlikely to mitigate structural damage over the long term.”

Shagina added that replacing the volume and diversity of critical minerals controlled by Beijing with alternative sources would take years.

In 2024, the EU enacted the European Critical Raw Materials Act, aimed at rebuilding domestic supply chains for such minerals.

The legislation sets 2030 targets for domestic extraction, processing and recycling while limiting dependence on any single third-country supplier to 65%.

A €3 billion ($3.5 billion) fund was established last year to accelerate strategic projects.

Nevertheless, the European Court of Auditors has noted that the 2030 targets are not legally binding and that the EU remains far from achieving them.

Industry groups argue that policy inconsistencies could further slow progress.

The Cobalt Institute, which represents a sector vital to jet engines, advanced batteries and defence alloys, warned that proposed EU chemicals regulations risk undermining the industry.

“Europe has one foot in and one foot out,” said Michael Blakeney, head of government and public affairs at the London-based institute. “It says the right things, but its actions are inconsistent.”

Europe’s efforts are unfolding alongside a more aggressive US strategy to secure critical mineral supply chains.

Shagina said:

“The US is investing more capital to secure and expand capacity, taking greater financial risks and, in some cases, acquiring equity stakes. Europe, by contrast, is generally more cautious, which places it at a relative disadvantage in the competition for critical minerals.”

In April, the EU signed an agreement with the United States to coordinate supplies of critical minerals. Although some member states initially resisted over concerns that the deal could weaken the bloc’s strategic autonomy, they authorised the Commission in early June to join the US-led “Pax Silica” initiative, which coordinates investment and export-control policies.

Teer urged Europe to use ongoing US-EU-Japan negotiations as the nucleus of a broader coalition aimed at making critical mineral production outside China financially viable through state support, minimum-price mechanisms and supply rules.

“Particularly important are countries that either produce raw materials or possess significant mineral deposits, such as Malaysia, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Brazil and Indonesia, as well as countries like India with large pools of skilled labour,” he said.

Teer also argued that the EU should activate its Anti-Coercion Instrument, which allows the bloc to impose tariffs and restrictions in response to economic pressure on countries outside the union, in order to deter China from introducing further restrictions.

A European Commission spokesperson said the bloc had “long been aware of the risks associated with the EU’s dependence on critical raw materials.”

“The objective is clear: to anticipate disruptions early and reduce the EU’s vulnerabilities while strengthening our industrial and defence capacities,” the spokesperson said.

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Four European countries move to make citizenship harder to obtain

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European countries are increasingly tightening their citizenship rules. Most recently, the Norwegian government has drafted legislation that would raise the minimum residency requirement for citizenship from three years to seven.

The proposed amendments to the citizenship law were presented by the Ministry of Labour and Social Inclusion.

Under the draft legislation, stateless individuals born in Norway, as well as those who arrived in the country as children, would be required to reside in Norway for at least five years before becoming eligible for citizenship.

The government also plans to increase residency requirements for foreign nationals who are married to or cohabiting with Norwegian citizens.

Language requirements are set to become more demanding as well. The proposal would raise the required level of spoken Norwegian proficiency from A2 to B1. The new rules would apply to applicants aged between 18 and 67.

Commenting on the changes, Minister of Labour and Social Inclusion Kjersti Stenseng said: “Obtaining and holding Norwegian citizenship should be a privilege.”

The government argues that simplifying administrative procedures while simultaneously tightening eligibility criteria will help reduce the country’s large backlog of pending applications and shorten processing times.

Norway is the latest European country to announce revisions to its citizenship rules.

In Finland, the minimum residency requirement for citizenship was increased from five years to eight years on October 1, 2024.

The country also plans to introduce a mandatory citizenship test for applicants aged between 18 and 64 from the beginning of 2027.

Finnish Interior Minister Mari Rantanen said: “The introduction of a citizenship test is the final component of a comprehensive reform aimed at making citizenship requirements more stringent.”

Sweden has also approved a similar reform. Beginning in June 2026, the standard residency requirement for citizenship will increase from five years to eight years. Authorities are also introducing a financial self-sufficiency requirement for applicants and expanding the scope of security screenings.

Explaining the rationale behind the changes, Migration Minister Johan Forssell said: “It was possible to become a citizen after living in the country for five years without knowing a single word of Swedish, learning anything about Swedish society, or even having one’s own source of income.”

The most far-reaching changes have been implemented in Portugal. Portuguese President Antonio Jose Seguro has signed legislation raising the minimum residency requirement for citizenship from five years to 10 years.

For citizens of the European Union and the Community of Portuguese Language Countries, the requirement has been set at seven years.

The residency period will now be calculated from the date a residence permit is granted rather than from the date a citizenship application is submitted. The new rules will also affect the children of immigrants.

Previously, children could obtain citizenship one year after birth if their parents held residence permits. Under the new rules, at least one parent must have legally resided in the country for a minimum of five years.

The law also introduces a mandatory examination covering Portuguese history, culture, values and social structures.

Migration policies are tightening across the European Union as well. On June 17, the European Parliament approved legislation allowing irregular migrants whose asylum applications have been rejected but who cannot be returned to their countries of origin to be deported to third countries.

The new EU rules permit the establishment of migrant detention centres outside the bloc’s borders. African countries are reportedly among the options being discussed for such facilities.

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SpaceX warns EU satellite spectrum plan could disrupt connectivity in Ukraine

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SpaceX has sharply criticised a European Union plan to restrict access to satellite spectrum, arguing that the proposal risks degrading connectivity in Ukraine and disrupting emergency communications services.

In a document shared with European officials and reviewed by the Financial Times, SpaceX warned:

“This proposal significantly increases the likelihood that Europeans will be deprived of direct-to-device satellite services, or that new European operations will create global interference issues, including for emergency services such as those operating in Ukraine.”

In a proposal unveiled in May, the EU recommended reserving part of the spectrum band used for direct satellite-to-smartphone connectivity for European operators, thereby limiting the frequencies available to US and Chinese providers.

The 2 GHz frequency band in question is currently used by two US companies, Viasat and EchoStar.

SpaceX argued that the EU plan prioritises “an operator’s country of establishment over economic, technical and regulatory realities.”

When the proposal was announced, EU technology chief Henna Virkkunen defended the move, saying the bloc wanted to “increase European capacity in this sector.” She added that other parts of the frequency band would remain open to international operators, arguing that prioritising European providers was justified.

Other participants involved in discussions over the proposal said some EU officials were specifically seeking to limit Elon Musk’s Starlink satellite network.

Europe’s initiative follows a warning from Washington. In March, the US Federal Communications Commission (FCC) cautioned that it could take retaliatory measures if the EU chose to favour European satellite operators over alternatives such as Starlink.

At the time, FCC Chairman Brendan Carr told the Financial Times: “Some of the discussions in Europe regarding satellite sovereignty concern us. If Europe decides to move down that path, then, as you know, we will have to consider reciprocal measures.”

The European Commission’s proposal has not yet entered formal negotiations with EU member states or the European Parliament.

A source close to SpaceX said the company remained hopeful of influencing the outcome of the process, given concerns raised by both businesses and several European governments.

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