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German businesses begin dismantling the political firewall against the AfD

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Many sectors within the German economy are increasingly open to cooperation with the AfD.

According to a report in the online magazine The Pioneer, cited by German Foreign Policy, the association “Die Familienunternehmer” (“The Family Entrepreneurs”), which is predominantly composed of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), is now inviting Alternative for Germany (AfD) deputies to its “parliamentary evenings.” The association states, “We are bidding farewell to firewalls.”

In the SME sector, for example in Saxony, “one in every two entrepreneurs” now sympathizes with the AfD, particularly because the party presents a business-friendly stance, much like the Free Democrats (FDP) once did.

Even large corporations say they have “no fundamental reservations about the AfD.” If the party enters government, cooperation could happen “very quickly.”

The collapse of the “firewall” in the European Parliament (EP) last week is a positive development “for the European economy,” as stated by Manfred Weber, leader of the majority “center-right” European People’s Party (EPP).

The AfD is in the process of mitigating a central obstacle to coalition-building—its proximity to Russia—and is instead shifting towards cooperation with a potential Trump administration.

Anti-AfD reactions from the business world before the elections

Shortly before the federal elections on February 23, 2025, two influential think tanks of the German economy had taken a clear stance against the AfD.

Marcel Fratzscher, president of the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW), rejected the AfD’s proposal for “€181 billion in tax cuts per year,” which he said could only be financed by “a massive national debt.”

The Cologne Institute for Economic Research (IW) also wrote that the AfD was still considering leaving the euro and even the EU (“Dexit”). However, the cost of a Dexit would reach 5.6% of real gross domestic product after just five years, totaling approximately €690 billion, and “the economic consequences of leaving the single currency would be added to this.”

Another problem was the “effect of the AfD on potential immigrants,” who were necessary to offset the “demographic crisis.”

According to the IW, entrepreneurs gave the AfD a direct ‘F’ grade on energy policy: they did not find the combination of dismantling wind turbines, reintroducing nuclear energy, and tax cuts for the repair of Nord Stream 2 convincing.

AfD replaces the FDP before the CDU

Meanwhile, the mood is beginning to change within the association structures of the German economy, which are dominated by SMEs, if not in the think tanks.

This is the case, for example, with Die Familienunternehmer, an association composed mainly of medium-sized companies but also including large corporations from Oetker to Merck and BMW.

Albrecht von der Hagen, the association’s managing director, recently organized a parliamentary evening in Berlin for AfD members of the Bundestag, stating, “This firewall against the AfD… has achieved nothing. … We are bidding farewell to firewalls.”

Mathias Hammer, an entrepreneur from Saxony, is considering voting for the AfD in the next election and says that “one in every two entrepreneurs” in his state sympathizes with the AfD.

The reason for this is that the party shares many views with the FDP, which has worn itself out in the “traffic light” coalition (SPD-Greens-FDP).

The association quotes AfD leader Alice Weidel as saying: “We are also increasingly noticing that business representatives who previously pinned their hopes on the FDP for a sensible economic policy are now turning to us.”

Nearly one-third of voters who left the FDP voted for the AfD on February 23.

Increased dialogue with the AfD

Sympathy for the AfD in the business world is still limited. On one hand, this is related to its policy platform.

According to von der Hagen, the AfD’s demand for a 70% pension level is “unaffordable.” The party’s goal of forcing women “back to the kitchen” also means the “end” for businesses, most of which depend on female employees. For this reason, they are engaging in an “expert exchange” with AfD politicians.

Leading representatives of large corporations are also showing restraint. According to a recent report, they have “no fundamental reservations about the AfD”; after all, it is pointed out that in other countries, the business world cooperates with figures like the “post-fascist Giorgia Meloni.”

However, they currently fear that their image would be severely damaged if their contacts with the AfD were made public. “At the moment, no one wants to take the first step towards the AfD because the reputational risk is too high,” said a senior lobbyist, who naturally assumes that “if the AfD comes to power, everything will happen very quickly.”

An example of this is Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg, who suspended Donald Trump’s account on Facebook in 2021 but publicly endorsed him after the elections at the end of 2024.

“Firewall” collapses in the EP

Last week, the “center-right” European People’s Party (EPP) group in the European Parliament (EP) contributed to strengthening the business world’s willingness to break down the firewall.

On Thursday, it voted with the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR), the Patriots for Europe (PfE), and the Europe of Sovereign Nations (ESN) in favor of a significant loosening of the Supply Chain Directive, which had previously been rejected by members of the traditional coalition of liberals and social democrats.

Within the ESN faction, AfD deputies also voted in favor. For the first time, the EP’s far-right majority passed a fundamental and far-reaching decision, rather than one of limited importance.

Manfred Weber, the EPP group chairman and CSU member who is seen as the architect of this move, said of the vote that the EP had simply “taken a step for the European economy.”

The Russia obstacle in the AfD can also be overcome

As growing support from the business world increases the likelihood of the firewall against the AfD collapsing in the not-too-distant future, some factions within the party are now pushing to eliminate another obstacle to its integration into a ruling coalition: its close ties to Russia.

Currently, a trip by three AfD politicians to Sochi to attend a meeting called “BRICS Europe” is drawing heavy criticism; contrary to its name, this event is not a regular activity of the BRICS alliance.

While a fierce media campaign has been launched against the delegation that went to Sochi, AfD leader Weidel and several other AfD politicians are trying to use this to push back the pro-Russia wing within the party.

“I personally would not have gone there. I wouldn’t recommend it to anyone either, because I don’t know what the final outcome will be,” Weidel said.

Retired Colonel Rüdiger Lucassen, the AfD parliamentary group’s defense policy spokesman, argued that Russia “shows no willingness to move towards peace,” so there was little point in going to Sochi.

“MAGA-like” policy is in vogue in West Germany

The conflict between the two wings of the AfD is intensifying. While ties with Russia are considered strong, especially in the AfD regional associations in East Germany, they are weaker in the associations in West Germany.

Another important point is that federal elections are not won in the relatively sparsely populated eastern states, but in the much more populous western states like Bavaria and North Rhine-Westphalia.

In these states, cooperation with the MAGA movement in the US, which is currently being promoted by the prospect of a Trump administration, is quite popular.

Therefore, the wing around Weidel aims to reduce relations with Russia to “communication channels” and focus instead on cooperation with the MAGA right in the US.

The plan to be “compatible with the Union parties and their supporters” is also said to play a role in this.

Europe

China’s critical mineral restrictions challenge EU defence expansion plans

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The European Union’s plans to expand its defence capabilities are being hindered by China’s export controls and sales restrictions on critical raw materials.

In response, EU leaders are urging member states to accelerate efforts to diversify supply chains.

According to Nikkei Asia, the European Commission announced last week that it would propose new legislation requiring companies across the bloc to broaden their supplier base in an effort to address economic imbalances, although it did not explicitly name China.

The war in Ukraine and growing uncertainty over Washington’s security guarantees have pushed European governments to increase military spending and defence production.

At the same time, according to a report published in May by Joris Teer, a policy analyst at the European Union Institute for Security Studies (EUISS), China accounts for at least 70% of global mining or refining activity in 17 of the 34 materials classified as critical by the EU. Eight of those 34 materials are currently subject to Chinese export controls.

“China is undermining Europe’s rearmament efforts,” Teer wrote. “Simply by activating this tool, China has already increased its leverage and demonstrated both the capability and willingness to restrict supply whenever it chooses.”

The Aerospace, Security and Defence Industries Association of Europe also warned that geopolitical developments and intensifying global competition for critical raw materials are further underscoring the need to strengthen European supply chains.

The organisation represents more than 4,000 companies, including Britain’s BAE Systems, France’s Thales and Germany’s Rheinmetall.

European defence manufacturers are pursuing a range of strategies, including vertical integration, recycling, diversification and stockpiling.

Rheinmetall told Nikkei Asia that it has “no dependencies” and is “well prepared” regarding critical minerals.

A company spokesperson said: “Rheinmetall has stockpiled key raw materials sufficient for several years. We have also implemented IT systems that allow us to centrally monitor and precisely manage raw material consumption across the entire group.”

Analysts, however, caution that stockpiling alone will not be sufficient. Maria Shagina, a researcher at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, said: “Stockpiling serves as an important buffer against sudden disruptions, but on its own it is unlikely to mitigate structural damage over the long term.”

Shagina added that replacing the volume and diversity of critical minerals controlled by Beijing with alternative sources would take years.

In 2024, the EU enacted the European Critical Raw Materials Act, aimed at rebuilding domestic supply chains for such minerals.

The legislation sets 2030 targets for domestic extraction, processing and recycling while limiting dependence on any single third-country supplier to 65%.

A €3 billion ($3.5 billion) fund was established last year to accelerate strategic projects.

Nevertheless, the European Court of Auditors has noted that the 2030 targets are not legally binding and that the EU remains far from achieving them.

Industry groups argue that policy inconsistencies could further slow progress.

The Cobalt Institute, which represents a sector vital to jet engines, advanced batteries and defence alloys, warned that proposed EU chemicals regulations risk undermining the industry.

“Europe has one foot in and one foot out,” said Michael Blakeney, head of government and public affairs at the London-based institute. “It says the right things, but its actions are inconsistent.”

Europe’s efforts are unfolding alongside a more aggressive US strategy to secure critical mineral supply chains.

Shagina said:

“The US is investing more capital to secure and expand capacity, taking greater financial risks and, in some cases, acquiring equity stakes. Europe, by contrast, is generally more cautious, which places it at a relative disadvantage in the competition for critical minerals.”

In April, the EU signed an agreement with the United States to coordinate supplies of critical minerals. Although some member states initially resisted over concerns that the deal could weaken the bloc’s strategic autonomy, they authorised the Commission in early June to join the US-led “Pax Silica” initiative, which coordinates investment and export-control policies.

Teer urged Europe to use ongoing US-EU-Japan negotiations as the nucleus of a broader coalition aimed at making critical mineral production outside China financially viable through state support, minimum-price mechanisms and supply rules.

“Particularly important are countries that either produce raw materials or possess significant mineral deposits, such as Malaysia, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Brazil and Indonesia, as well as countries like India with large pools of skilled labour,” he said.

Teer also argued that the EU should activate its Anti-Coercion Instrument, which allows the bloc to impose tariffs and restrictions in response to economic pressure on countries outside the union, in order to deter China from introducing further restrictions.

A European Commission spokesperson said the bloc had “long been aware of the risks associated with the EU’s dependence on critical raw materials.”

“The objective is clear: to anticipate disruptions early and reduce the EU’s vulnerabilities while strengthening our industrial and defence capacities,” the spokesperson said.

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Four European countries move to make citizenship harder to obtain

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European countries are increasingly tightening their citizenship rules. Most recently, the Norwegian government has drafted legislation that would raise the minimum residency requirement for citizenship from three years to seven.

The proposed amendments to the citizenship law were presented by the Ministry of Labour and Social Inclusion.

Under the draft legislation, stateless individuals born in Norway, as well as those who arrived in the country as children, would be required to reside in Norway for at least five years before becoming eligible for citizenship.

The government also plans to increase residency requirements for foreign nationals who are married to or cohabiting with Norwegian citizens.

Language requirements are set to become more demanding as well. The proposal would raise the required level of spoken Norwegian proficiency from A2 to B1. The new rules would apply to applicants aged between 18 and 67.

Commenting on the changes, Minister of Labour and Social Inclusion Kjersti Stenseng said: “Obtaining and holding Norwegian citizenship should be a privilege.”

The government argues that simplifying administrative procedures while simultaneously tightening eligibility criteria will help reduce the country’s large backlog of pending applications and shorten processing times.

Norway is the latest European country to announce revisions to its citizenship rules.

In Finland, the minimum residency requirement for citizenship was increased from five years to eight years on October 1, 2024.

The country also plans to introduce a mandatory citizenship test for applicants aged between 18 and 64 from the beginning of 2027.

Finnish Interior Minister Mari Rantanen said: “The introduction of a citizenship test is the final component of a comprehensive reform aimed at making citizenship requirements more stringent.”

Sweden has also approved a similar reform. Beginning in June 2026, the standard residency requirement for citizenship will increase from five years to eight years. Authorities are also introducing a financial self-sufficiency requirement for applicants and expanding the scope of security screenings.

Explaining the rationale behind the changes, Migration Minister Johan Forssell said: “It was possible to become a citizen after living in the country for five years without knowing a single word of Swedish, learning anything about Swedish society, or even having one’s own source of income.”

The most far-reaching changes have been implemented in Portugal. Portuguese President Antonio Jose Seguro has signed legislation raising the minimum residency requirement for citizenship from five years to 10 years.

For citizens of the European Union and the Community of Portuguese Language Countries, the requirement has been set at seven years.

The residency period will now be calculated from the date a residence permit is granted rather than from the date a citizenship application is submitted. The new rules will also affect the children of immigrants.

Previously, children could obtain citizenship one year after birth if their parents held residence permits. Under the new rules, at least one parent must have legally resided in the country for a minimum of five years.

The law also introduces a mandatory examination covering Portuguese history, culture, values and social structures.

Migration policies are tightening across the European Union as well. On June 17, the European Parliament approved legislation allowing irregular migrants whose asylum applications have been rejected but who cannot be returned to their countries of origin to be deported to third countries.

The new EU rules permit the establishment of migrant detention centres outside the bloc’s borders. African countries are reportedly among the options being discussed for such facilities.

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SpaceX warns EU satellite spectrum plan could disrupt connectivity in Ukraine

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SpaceX has sharply criticised a European Union plan to restrict access to satellite spectrum, arguing that the proposal risks degrading connectivity in Ukraine and disrupting emergency communications services.

In a document shared with European officials and reviewed by the Financial Times, SpaceX warned:

“This proposal significantly increases the likelihood that Europeans will be deprived of direct-to-device satellite services, or that new European operations will create global interference issues, including for emergency services such as those operating in Ukraine.”

In a proposal unveiled in May, the EU recommended reserving part of the spectrum band used for direct satellite-to-smartphone connectivity for European operators, thereby limiting the frequencies available to US and Chinese providers.

The 2 GHz frequency band in question is currently used by two US companies, Viasat and EchoStar.

SpaceX argued that the EU plan prioritises “an operator’s country of establishment over economic, technical and regulatory realities.”

When the proposal was announced, EU technology chief Henna Virkkunen defended the move, saying the bloc wanted to “increase European capacity in this sector.” She added that other parts of the frequency band would remain open to international operators, arguing that prioritising European providers was justified.

Other participants involved in discussions over the proposal said some EU officials were specifically seeking to limit Elon Musk’s Starlink satellite network.

Europe’s initiative follows a warning from Washington. In March, the US Federal Communications Commission (FCC) cautioned that it could take retaliatory measures if the EU chose to favour European satellite operators over alternatives such as Starlink.

At the time, FCC Chairman Brendan Carr told the Financial Times: “Some of the discussions in Europe regarding satellite sovereignty concern us. If Europe decides to move down that path, then, as you know, we will have to consider reciprocal measures.”

The European Commission’s proposal has not yet entered formal negotiations with EU member states or the European Parliament.

A source close to SpaceX said the company remained hopeful of influencing the outcome of the process, given concerns raised by both businesses and several European governments.

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