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Iran-Israel conflict escalates: What will happen next?

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The Islamic Republic of Iran finally relented and fired nearly 200 ballistic missiles at Israel. This operation was unexpected after the operation called “Wada Sadiq”, because many analysts believed that Tehran would not accept the risk of a direct attack on Israel for the leaders of Hamas and Hezbollah. But that analysis went wrong.

Also, Tehran reacted quickly, perhaps with the aim of preventing a possible frontal attack by Israel. This operation is considered heavier than the April attack.

Although the number of missiles fired was small, because all the missiles were ballistic, they raised a lot of noises. All eyes are now on Israel’s possible response. The answer that is not far away is to widen the war between the two sides.

Mohammad Bagheri, the chief of staff of Iran’s armed forces, said that three important bases of the country (Israel) were targeted in Tuesday’s missile attacks on Israel under the name of “Sadiq Promise 2.”

The attacks targeted Mossad, Navatim and Hatserin bases, according to Fars News Agency.

“The three main military air bases of the Zionist regime [Israel], Mossad as the center of terror, Navatim Air Base as an F-35 air base and Hatzrin Air Base as a base used to assassinate Nasrallah were targeted by the IRGC’s missile attack,” the agency quoted Bagheri as saying.

According to him, despite Israel’s “repeated crimes,” Iranian forces have only targeted military bases in accordance with international standards. There is no information yet on the possible casualties and damages caused by the attacks.

Is there going to be a massive war; the answer is no for three reasons.

First – The Iranian attack was apparently focused on military targets. No civilian casualties have been reported yet. There is no information about the casualties of the soldiers. Military sites may have been damaged, but the extent of the damage is not yet known. Tehran has also been very careful in determining targets so as not to cause heavy losses to civilians and property, because in that case, the risk of a large-scale war could be increased.

Therefore, it can be said that the safety of civilians and civilian places will save Tel Aviv from a large-scale retaliatory attack that will lead to a large-scale war.

Second – There is serious ambiguity in the position of the United States. Although this country is determined and committed to supporting Israel, it does not give Israel the opportunity to start a massive war in the current situation. The reason is obvious, the US’s heated electoral climate. A full-scale war in the Middle East could be dangerous for current rulers, especially if an oil-rich country closes its oil pipeline.

Republican candidate Donald Trump, without condemning the attack on Iran, called Biden and Harris warmongers. In such a situation that the Biden government bears the costs of the wars in Ukraine, Gaza and Lebanon, does not want to bear the heavy costs of the war with Iran, so it is trying to make the possible response of Israel to be only an exchange of fire, not an immense war.

The most important thing is that, this time, Washington’s language is not too harsh towards Iran, it emphasized its support for Israel, rather than condemning Tehran.

America’s contribution in the field of missile defense was also not serious against the past. It raised questions about what caused many missiles to reach the target. Britain and France also did not participate in the destruction of the missiles. Jordan remained the same. Moreover, these countries had cooperated in the past to reduce the effectiveness of the “Wada Sadiq” operation. The non-participation of Jordan, France and the UK seems meaningful. It seems that diplomacy is involved; In other words, Tehran already had the consent of Washington. If so, it will obviously be difficult for Biden to admit. Of course, Iran claimed that it had not given the information to the United States as Tehran did last when it attacked Israel in April.

Third – Iran, without a doubt, does not want to be involved in a war with Israel, it was forced to attack its territory, because after Haniyeh was killed, the 14th government was severely criticized and the conservatives said that the current government is in line with the Democrats and is seeking to weaken the “resistance front” in the Middle East.

It is clear that the reformist government is currently discussing the “triangle management” plan with the US, and its implementation is the most important concern.

Of course, Israel is trying to thwart this plan. So, the success of the above plan warrants not going into war with Israel. When one side backs down, it is clear that the risk of a full-scale war is reduced.

The result of the attack.

1 – For Israel:

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was in a good position after the assassination of the famous leaders and commanders of Hezbollah and Hamas. Polls also show that if elections are held in Israel, his Likud party will win.

His political opposition groups also supported him. Netanyahu also tried to make gains for himself on the eve of the completion of one year of Hamas attacks, which apparently succeeded.

Now the attack of Iran is a big obstacle in front of him. A large-scale missile attack on Israeli territory by another country, especially on the eve of the one-year anniversary of the Gaza war, could be damaging for Netanyahu, especially if he has yet to achieve his stated goals against Hamas.

2 – For Iran:

Iran, which attacked, naturally considers the results of the operation to be positive for itself. An attack on Israel’s territory by a foreign country since (1973) was a “taboo”; But this is the second time that Iran breaks this taboo.

Only in 1991 did Saddam Hussein’s government launch a limited missile attack on Israeli territory, which was not responded to by Tel Aviv.

Now that Iran has normalized attacks on Israeli soil, this can be considered a point of strength for it. That is, of course, if a possible Israeli response does not inflict heavy losses on Tehran.

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Israeli airstrikes and landing operation target Syrian defense facilities

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Israel conducted an airstrike followed by a landing operation in the Safira district, located in the south-east of Syria’s Aleppo province.

The operation began with intense airstrikes targeting the Safira region, which houses Syrian defense industry facilities and a military research center. Simultaneously, Israel expanded its military activities in the south, coinciding with the collapse of the Assad regime. According to an AA news report citing local sources, Israel specifically targeted an air defense base and Warehouse 404. Preliminary reports indicate that approximately ten airstrikes resulted in casualties, with both deaths and injuries reported in the area.

In the hours following the airstrikes, Israeli forces conducted a landing operation using aircraft. This led to clashes between Israeli soldiers and armed groups in the region.

These attacks are part of a broader escalation by the Israeli military, which intensified following the collapse of Syria’s 61-year Baathist rule on 8 December. The escalation began with clashes on 27 November. Since then, the Israeli army has focused on dismantling military infrastructure and facilities abandoned by the Syrian army, while also expanding its occupation of the Golan Heights, a Syrian territory.

The Israeli military has advanced beyond the buffer zone surrounding the Golan Heights, moving as close as 25 kilometers to the Syrian capital, Damascus.

Israel has occupied Syria’s Golan Heights since 1967. The 1974 disengagement agreement between Israel and Syria established the borders of a buffer zone and a demilitarized area, but recent actions suggest a significant shift in the status quo.

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Tehran issues formal protest to Riyadh over executions of Iranian citizens

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Saudi Arabia’s Interior Ministry announced the execution of six Iranians for attempting to smuggle drugs into the country. In response, Tehran issued a formal note to Riyadh.

According to Saudi Arabia’s official news agency, SPA, the Ministry of Interior released a statement identifying the executed individuals as Jasim Mohammad Shabani, Abdelreza Yunous Tenkasiri, Khalil Shahid Samri, Mohammad Javad Abdeljalil, Mahdi Kenan Ghani, and Khor Mohammad Shabani. The statement detailed that these Iranian citizens were apprehended, convicted by the court, and subsequently sentenced to death.

The Ministry emphasized that the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia carried out the court’s decision, executing the convicted individuals.

In response, Iran’s official news agency, IRNA, reported that the Iranian Foreign Ministry summoned the Saudi Ambassador to Tehran, Abdallah bin Saud Al-Anazi, and delivered a strongly worded note of protest against the executions.

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Ahmad Sharia and Mullah Haibatullah; Why are their (Islams) so different?

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In his last interview, the leader of the Hayat Tahriri al-Sham (HTS) and current ruler of Syria spoke about holding elections and drafting the constitution. Ahmad Sharia’s desire to hold elections and draft a constitution shows that Syrian Islamists do not intend to build a system similar to the Taliban emirate in Kabul.

Speaking to Saudi Arabia’s state television, Ahmad Sharia also known as Abu Mohammad Jolani said that it may take four years to hold presidential elections in Syria and three years to draft a new constitution. Unlike the leader of HTS, the Taliban in Afghanistan has explicitly stated that free elections will not be held under their rule. The Taliban believes that the government should be based on Islamic Sharia and internal consultations of Taliban leaders and religious authorities, not on western democratic models of the ballot box.

Talking about holding elections and drafting the constitution is not the only difference between HTS in Syria and Taliban in Afghanistan. In the past months, Jolani has taken actions that show that he does not want the world community to look at him and Hebatullah Akhundzadeh, the leader of the Taliban from the same window.

He is aware of this comparison and has deliberately emphasized his difference with the secret and mysterious leader of the Taliban. Jolani had recently said that the society of Afghanistan and Syria are different and he will not create a government in the “style” of the Taliban.”

Jolani does not hide from his people and world

One of the main differences between Jolani and Hebatullah Akhundzadeh is that the leader of HTS does not hide from the public.

The presence of the leader of Jolani in public and the way he interacts with the members of his group and other Syrian citizens have significant differences with the leader of the Taliban. From these differences, it is possible to understand the different cultural, political, and ideological views that both groups adhere to.

In the three and a half years that have passed since Hebatullah Akhundzadeh’s rule over Afghanistan, he has been ruling by broadcasting audio files and orders from Kandahar and has shown no desire to have a closer relationship with the people. During this time, he never appeared in front of the media cameras to speak to the people of Afghanistan. To such an extent that prominent Sunni and Shiite clerics and a number of prominent media figures of the Taliban have also said that they have not been able to meet Akhundzadeh so far.

Hebatullah is against photographing of the living creature, but Jolani takes pictures with women in Damascus

Recently, a video of the moment Jolani took a picture with a young Syrian woman in Damascus became very popular and controversial on social media networks. In this video, it can be seen that Jolani asks one of them to cover his hair before taking a photo with several women in Damascus.

The leader of the Hayat Tahriri al-Sham (HTS) Ahmad Sharia (R) and Taliban leader Hebatullah Akhundzadeh (L).

Critics criticized Jolani’s “intervention” about a woman’s veil. There are many positive and negative opinions about this video. In addition to these views, the video shows two differences between Jolani and Akhundzadeh – unlike Akhundzadeh, Jolani is not afraid of appearing in the streets of the capital of the country he leads and is not afraid of appearing in front of people’s cameras and that he is not against filming.

Akhundzadeh has banned filming and broadcasting images of living creatures in the controversial law through the Ministry of Propagation of Virtue and the Prevention of Vice. The law that seriously threatens the future of visual media in Afghanistan and has provoked differences among the cabinet members of this group.

Following the passage of this law, the Taliban have intensified pressure to ban the broadcast of images of living creatures on televisions across Afghanistan.

Appointing a woman as head of the central bank for the first time in the history of Syria

In one of the latest actions, the Syrian transitional government appointed Misa Sabrin as the head of the country’s central bank. Mrs. Sabrin is the first woman in the history of this bank to become its president. Before this position, she was the first deputy as well as director of supervision of the Central Bank of Syria.

Misa Sabrin’s appointment probably shows Jolani’s desire to involve women in the country’s top management. On the contrary, the Taliban administration has barred women not only from participation in higher jobs, but also from government jobs in general. Also, women have lost the right to education and participation without discrimination and gender segregation in the country’s economy. This action has had negative effects on the economy and health of Afghan women.

Afghan women are banned from working in NGOs and international organizations including UN offices across Afghanistan. Afghan women were also banned from going to work and also schools’ girls above sixth grade forced to stay at home. In the last action, the Taliban also banned female medical students from attending classes.

Contrary to the dissolution of the Ministry of Women’s Affairs of Afghanistan, the Office of Women’s Affairs of Syria continues to work.

The interim government of Syria has appointed Ayesha Al-Debs as the head of the country’s women’s affairs office. With this appointment, Ayesha Al-Dabs was the first woman to hold an official position in the new Syrian government led by the Islamist Tahrir al-Sham group.

Ayesha Al-Dabs is a human rights and civil society activist. She has previously worked in humanitarian fields in Idlib, Syria and helping Syrian refugees in Turkey.

This appointment took place while there were concerns that the role and rights of women would be ignored in the new structure.

After her appointment, Ayesha El-Debs announced in an interview that the Syrian interim government will provide opportunities for women to participate in all social fields, according to their abilities and qualifications.

On the contrary, the Taliban dissolved the Ministry of Women’s Affairs and replaced it with the Ministry of Public Affairs, whose task is to oppress women and deprive them of fundamental rights and freedoms.

Hebatullah Akhundzadeh is isolated

Jolani and his representatives have been busy meeting with officials and high-ranking envoys of foreign countries in Damascus in the past couple of days.

In one of the most important events, US Deputy Secretary of State Barbara Leaf said after the meeting of the US diplomatic delegation with the leader of Tahrir al-Sham in Damascus, Washington has canceled the $10 million reward for the arrest of Jolani.

In justifying the decision, Barbara Leaf, the US assistant secretary of state for Middle East affairs, said that the leader of Tahrir al-Sham is committed not to allow terrorist groups to operate in Syria and pose a threat to the United States or neighboring countries.

Unlike him, so far similar awards set by the United States and the United Nations on Taliban leaders have not been removed.

On the contrary, Hebatullah Akhundzadeh’s isolation in Kandahar has become one of the most prominent features of her leadership period.

In more than three years of ruling Afghanistan, only once Akhundzadeh held a face-to-face meeting with the Prime Minister of Qatar, Mohammad bin Abdul Rahman Al Thani. The meeting was held in Kandahar.

Apart from this meeting, Akhundzadeh has never met a foreign official. Akhundzadeh has not only refused to appear in public, but also has almost no connection with the outside world at the diplomatic level.

The reluctance of foreign officials to travel to Kabul is mostly due to the policies of the Taliban, which have led to strong international reactions. For example, the suppression of women under Taliban rule has intensified so much that a famous American actor said at a UN meeting that “cats and birds” have more freedom than Afghan women.

Any fear of Jolani becoming another Hebatullah?

Jolani is a figure who emerged from among a rebel Islamist group and is now in a position that many consider him to represent a change in the approach of this group. However, examining his background, it is very important in assessing whether he will really take a different path from similar leaders like Hebatullah Akhundzadeh.

Since the beginning of his activity as the leader of HTS, Jolani has tried to present a different image from similar Islamist groups. In recent years, unlike the traditional and strict approach of many Islamist groups, he has shown a desire to interact with regional countries and the international community. At the same time, these changes are mostly tactical and it is not yet clear to what extent this more open approach is committed to the fundamental principles of the group and the political future of Syria.

Another point is the structure and history of writing Sham, which consists of a rebel group with strong ideological tendencies. In the past, many similar groups have moved to establish single-party governments after coming to power, severely suppressing dissent.

This risk is also present with HTS and Jolani’s leadership, especially if some of these changes are designed solely to garner international support.

Paying attention to his performance in the near future, especially in matters such as drafting a constitution, holding elections, and interacting with different ethnic groups in Syria, will determine whether Jolani really intends to lead Syria to a more diverse and democratic path, or whether he will also finally give in to the ideological and political limitations of his group.

The key question is, does Jolani have the ability and real desire to protect citizen rights and respect human rights, or will his policies ultimately, similar to other ideological Islamist governments, lead to the concentration of power and limiting freedoms? Only time and his performance in future critical situations can clarify the answer to this question.

Two different Islams

The fundamental differences between HTS under the leadership of Jolani and Islam of Taliban under the leadership of Akhundzadeh are due to the different approaches of these two groups in the field of politics, human rights and interaction with the outside world.

HTS has moved more towards interacting with the international community, holding elections and accepting some democratic principles, while the Taliban under the leadership of Akhundzadeh emphasize an Islamic governance system based on strict (Sharia law) and are against any kind of political or social participation. These differences are especially evident in women’s rights, diplomatic relations and individual freedoms.

Despite these strict approaches, the Taliban say that their goal is to establish an Islamic order, but this order comes at the cost of removing individual freedoms and human rights. Finally, instead of creating stability, the Taliban’s governance has led to the deepening of crises and further isolation of Afghanistan.

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