Asia
Iran war batters India: Factories go dark, basmati rice piles up at ports as Hormuz crisis deepens
The tremors of war in Iran have reached deep into the Indian economy, halting factory floors, stranding the country’s prized basmati rice exports, forcing airlines to cancel hundreds of flights, and driving restaurants to temporarily shutter. Businesses across the subcontinent are now grappling with fractured shipping lanes and surging fuel costs that show no sign of abating.
Now in its thirteenth day, the conflict has all but paralysed maritime traffic through the critical Strait of Hormuz, sending freight costs sharply higher. Of all Asian economies exposed to a prolonged conflict and shipping blockade, India stands among the most vulnerable. Roughly 50% of the country’s crude oil imports transit the strait, and according to data from Kpler, fully 89% of India’s liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) supply passed through that chokepoint in 2025.
Late Monday, New Delhi activated emergency measures to guarantee that households and vehicles running on compressed natural gas (CNG) receive first priority access to whatever domestic gas supplies remain.
“The problem is no longer just price — we are now confronting a supply crisis,” Madhavi Arora, Chief Economist at Emkay Global, told Nikkei Asia.
Ceramic factories on the brink
The gas shortage threatens to bring the ceramic industry in Gujarat — the home state of Prime Minister Narendra Modi — to a standstill. India concentrates roughly 90% of its ceramic production in the city of Morbi. Of approximately 700 factories there, between 400 and 450 rely on propane to fire their kilns. Manoj Arvadiya, President of the Morbi Ceramic Association, said that close to 100 of those facilities have already closed.
“If propane supplies are not restored within 10 days, all of our factories could be facing shutdown,” Arvadiya warned.
The gas crunch has also forced temporary closures of restaurants in major cities, with hospitality industry bodies sounding the alarm.
Vijay Shetty, President of the Hotel and Restaurant Association of India, said roughly 20% of restaurants and hotels in Mumbai have temporarily shut their doors, warning that the figure could climb to 50% within days if the LPG supply crisis persists. “There is acute distress across [the state of] Maharashtra,” Shetty said.
Social media has been flooded with accounts of restaurants rationing fuel, cutting operating hours, and switching to induction cooktops, resulting in sharply reduced menus. The National Restaurant Association of India estimates that even a single day’s supply disruption costs the sector up to 13 billion rupees ($141 million).
Textiles and manufacturing squeezed
Textile manufacturers have not been spared. Ashwin Chandran, Chairman of the Confederation of Indian Textile Industry, said freight costs for shipments to Europe have surged approximately 40%, jumping from roughly $2,200–$2,300 per container to more than $3,000.
Chandran also flagged a 30% increase in polyester prices tied to the sharp spike in crude oil. “Polyester usage has been significantly impacted because it may not be possible to pass on the price increase under short-term existing contracts,” he said.
Brent crude has whipsawed violently over the past three trading sessions: it surged to nearly $120 per barrel on Monday, retreated to approximately $83.50 on Tuesday, then clawed back toward $100 on Thursday as the Trump administration sent contradictory signals about the trajectory of the war. Prices remain more than 66% higher year-to-date.
A recent note from ICICI warned that sectors relying on petroleum derivatives — among them paints and tyres — face mounting margin compression as prices stay elevated.
Exports snarled, rice stranded
The conflict is also choking export markets. According to a report by investment advisory firm ICRA, approximately 14% of India’s total exports are destined for West Asia — a degree of exposure significantly higher than that of ASEAN nations, where West Asia accounts for roughly 5% to 10% of total exports, according to Emkay Global’s Arora.
Among India’s largest export categories, basmati rice has been particularly hard hit. Satish Goel, President of the All India Rice Exporters Association, said India ships 6 million metric tons of rice annually, with approximately 75% bound for Gulf states. Goel estimated that around 400,000 tons of rice — worth roughly $1,000 per ton — is currently stranded at sea or piling up at Indian ports.
Airlines ground flights as fuel costs bite
The closure of airspace over Iran and surrounding conflict zones has forced hundreds of flights onto longer re-routing, driving up fuel burn, according to ICRA. Its report noted that, as of March 5, Indian carriers had cancelled more than 1,700 flights — equivalent to approximately 46% of their international operations.
Air India announced Tuesday that it would impose fuel surcharges on both domestic and international routes in response to a “sharp rise” in jet fuel costs, cautioning that without such surcharges, certain flights would be economically unviable and subject to cancellation.
Markets on edge at a sensitive moment
The cascading effects of the war have arrived at a delicate juncture for Indian financial markets. Foreign investors have been net sellers of Indian equities to the tune of more than 830 billion rupees this year, unnerved first by uncertainty surrounding a US-India trade deal and now by the ongoing conflict. Threats of AI-driven disruption have weighed on technology shares, and despite a correction of more than 8% in the benchmark Nifty 50 this year, large-cap stocks continue to trade at relatively elevated valuations — a point flagged in recent notes by both Nomura and Morgan Stanley.
Following the eruption of the energy and shipping crisis, Morgan Stanley downgraded India from overweight to equal-weight, citing these compounding risks alongside the country’s historically adverse sensitivity to oil price shocks.
Asia
Chinese Politburo signals cautious confidence as Beijing pivots toward targeted tech support
The mid-year meeting of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Politburo has long served as a critical evaluation point for Beijing. The session provides the central government with an opportunity to review developments from the first half of the year and steer the country toward a more realistic economic course in the months ahead.
The latest statement from the top leadership signals cautious confidence. The release indicates that policymakers are favoring a stable, targeted approach over the broad-based stimulus measures that characterized previous years. As China manages its economic transition, the post-Covid era of aggressive spending has clearly drawn to a close. In its place, a strategic and structural approach has taken hold, prioritizing resilience and stability over short-term capital injections.
According to the outcomes of the Politburo meeting, the policy orientation will continue to target specific sectors. Financial support will be directed away from the property market and toward high-tech emerging industries such as artificial intelligence and semiconductors. In the real estate sector, the objective remains stabilizing market confidence and keeping debt risks under control.
Infrastructure investment is likewise being reshaped around the concept of “new infrastructure.” The focus is no longer solely on concrete and physical structures; smart power grids, information technology networks, and data infrastructure have taken precedence.
This approach signifies an investment in future competitiveness rather than simply pumping capital into the economy’s more stagnant sectors. Serving as a new driver of growth, digital infrastructure fulfills a dual purpose: supporting domestic demand in the short term while safeguarding technological competitiveness over the long term.
Finally, Beijing is signaling a more conciliatory posture in international trade. The Chinese leadership aims to establish a more balanced trade framework to mitigate concerns voiced by trade partners such as the European Union over what has been termed “China Shock 2.0.”
As the administration prepares for critical leadership changes next year, its primary focus will remain on stability across both economic and social spheres.
China continues to strike a balance between realistic growth targets and systemic restructuring, maintaining policy leeway to absorb potential external shocks. Beijing’s economic strategy reflects a pragmatic assessment of both domestic and international challenges.
Struggling with weak demand, the domestic economy is not yet in a position to anchor national growth independently. Expansion continues to rely heavily on a record trade surplus alongside the impressive export performance of high-tech and clean energy sectors. However, this reliance has drawn pushback from several trading partners.
To stimulate domestic economic activity and ease trade tensions, Beijing unveiled its first standalone five-year plan focused on consumption. Released in July by the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Commerce, the plan targets an increase in retail sales to 60 trillion yuan (approximately $8.9 trillion) by 2030. This represents an increase of roughly 20% compared to 2025 levels.
To improve profit margins for small businesses, regulatory authorities are tackling the issue of “involution”—described as excessive internal competition—by curbing platform monopolies and preventing destructive price wars. While these structural adjustments may take longer to yield results, they are viewed as a more sustainable and effective alternative to direct cash handouts.
Asia
Chinese chipmaker profits surge 2,500% on explosive AI computing demand
Major Chinese microchip manufacturers saw their profits surge by 2,579.5% in the first half of 2026, driven by unprecedented demand for artificial intelligence and computing capacity.
Data from China’s National Bureau of Statistics, cited by the South China Morning Post (SCMP), underscored the industry’s sharp upward trajectory.
Yu Weining, senior statistician at China’s National Bureau of Statistics, explained that this surge is directly connected to the accelerating integration of artificial intelligence across various sectors.
Yu noted that this process has increased the need for computing capacity. The demand for computational processes also lifted profits across the entire electronics industry by 97% year-on-year.
Profits of major Chinese industrial enterprises with an annual revenue exceeding 20 million yuan ($2.9 million) rose 18.7% in the first six months of the year, reaching 4 trillion yuan.
In the first half of 2025, before the global data center construction process had begun, industrial profits had dropped by 1.8% to 3.4 trillion yuan, while profit growth in the electronics sector remained at 3.5%.
The SCMP reported that the global AI boom has generated explosive demand for high-performance computing systems and memory chips, causing a structural pivot in China’s industrial landscape.
Data showed that integrated circuit production in the first half of the year grew by 23% year-on-year to reach approximately 280 billion units.
This figure means that the country produced an average of more than 1.5 billion chips per day.
The profit growth is also corroborated by forecasts from China’s leading chipmakers. Shenzhen Longsys Electronics, one of the largest memory module manufacturers, expects its profits to increase by more than 600-fold in the first half of the year.
Flash memory maker GigaDevice projects that its net profit will surge by approximately 1,099% year-on-year due to supply shortages and rising product prices.
Chinese companies in the AI chip segment are also demonstrating strong profit growth, albeit at a more moderate pace compared to the memory market.
Hygon Information Technology, which develops central processing units and computing units for artificial intelligence, projects that its profits will rise by up to 52.3%.
CXMT hits record high on Shanghai Stock Exchange
Shares of Chinese chipmaker CXMT gained more than 500% on their first day of trading on the Shanghai Stock Exchange on July 27, jumping from 8.66 yuan to 55 yuan.
As a result of this sharp surge in its shares, CXMT’s market valuation reached 3.65 trillion yuan ($539 billion), making the company China’s most valuable publicly traded firm.
At the peak of the rally—even though quoted prices underwent a slight correction toward the close of the trading day—CXMT surpassed Tencent, which was trading on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange with a market capitalization of $514 billion.
Asia
Massive student movement over exam leaks forces resignation of India’s education minister
Indian public examination reform proposals follow education minister’s resignation after nationwide youth protests
India’s federal government introduced legislation in parliament on Monday to amend the law governing public examinations, days after the “Cockroach” movement forced the resignation of Education Minister Dharmendra Pradhan following nationwide youth protests.
The bill incorporates enhanced sanctions, including longer prison sentences and higher fines for those found responsible for exam leaks and irregularities.
The demonstrations are widely viewed as the most significant youth-led challenge faced by Prime Minister Narendra Modi since he took office in 2014.
What triggered the protests?
Nearly 2 million students took the National Eligibility cum Entrance Test (NEET), an undergraduate medical entrance examination, in May. The federal National Testing Agency cancelled the exam on May 12 following allegations that question papers had been leaked. The examination was re-administered on June 21.
Young people took to the streets to protest against examination fraud, youth unemployment, and a perceived lack of future prospects.
According to a BBC report, the unemployment rate among university and college graduates aged 15 to 25 in the country stands at a critically high level of 40%. The addition of corruption in public examinations to existing economic strain broke the patience of the youth.
Abhijeet Dipke, founder of the Cockroach Public Party (CJP) movement, led the protests.
The movement derived its name from remarks made in May by Supreme Court Judge Surya Kant, who used the terms “cockroach” and “parasite” in a derogatory reference to unemployed youth and protesters. Young demonstrators adopted the insult as a symbol and named their movement after it.
How the movement unfolded
Young protesters organized street demonstrations demanding the resignation of Education Minister Pradhan. Dipke, who initiated the movement in New Delhi, subsequently organized protests in other parts of the country.
Sonam Wangchuk, one of the protesters, began a hunger strike at the demonstration site in support of the movement. As his physical condition deteriorated, authorities forcibly transferred him to a hospital.
The reaction to Wangchuk’s forcible removal from the protest site caused crowds at the venue to expand rapidly.
Tens of thousands of protesters faced tear gas and baton charges by police while attempting to march on parliament. Some demonstrators engaged in clashes with law enforcement officers.
CJP leaders held talks with ministers from the Modi government, who requested time to evaluate the protesters’ demands internally.
Modi called for unity among lawmakers in the ruling coalition to implement strict measures against exam paper leaks, punish those responsible, and establish a secure, leak-proof system.
Opposition representatives led by Rahul Gandhi staged a sit-in at the entrance of Modi’s official residence demanding Pradhan’s resignation. They were briefly detained by police before being released.
Opposition lawmakers supporting the student protesters disrupted proceedings in parliament. Demonstrations expanded to other regions of the country, including the financial hub of Mumbai.
In his first direct statement regarding the protests, published in a post on X, Modi announced that special courts would be established to prosecute individuals involved in exam paper leaks. Protesters rejected the proposal.
Movement leaders held a second round of talks with the government after Wangchuk ended his 26-day hunger strike.
Following those discussions, the government requested time until the afternoon of the following day to respond to the demand for Pradhan’s resignation.
Education Minister Pradhan subsequently announced his resignation, stating that he was stepping down in light of the situation at the protest site and across the country, as well as to prevent “external forces” from exploiting the environment.
On July 26, Modi announced the creation of a task force headed by technology entrepreneur Nandan Nilekani to overhaul the country’s examination system.
On Monday, July 27, the government presented a bill to parliament proposing amendments to the law governing public examinations. The legislation introduces stiffer penalties for offenders, including extended prison terms and increased monetary fines.
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