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Is Polexit imminent?

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Poland’s conflict with Germany and Brussels is a manifestation of the war that Brexit Britain has waged against Europe, in a bigger picture.

Considering the magnitude of the crimes committed on the territory of Nazi-occupied Poland, The memory of World War II is still so vivid for Poland. After the war, Polish-German relations took shape in the shadow of the debates about the war era, as well as the changes that occurred in the early years after the end of the war.

The border issue was controversial in the last century. Originally based on Oder and Nysa Łużycka, the border was the construction of the Soviet Union. The German Democratic Republic (East Germany) guaranteed the immunity of Poland’s western border until 1950, but this was maintained until 1991.

The issue came up again after the fall of the Berlin Wall. In December 1991, the German parliament adopted regulations affirming the permanence and immunity of the border between the two countries.

The issue of war compensation to be paid by Germany to the Soviet Union and indirectly to Poland has been brought up again in recent years. Given the magnitude of the damage, the sum of the compensation was much lower than the estimated damage to Poland during the war and occupation.

As a matter of fact, Poland was the country that suffered the most from the destruction policy of the Nazis. Between 1939 and 1945, about 6 million Polish citizens died, and many cities were almost completely destroyed, especially Warsaw, the capital that was destroyed by the Nazis.

Today’s claims against Germany stand out as a manifestation of the unpaid costs.

The Compensation Issue

In recent months, Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki and the ruling Law and Justice Party (PiS) have been seeking compensation from Germany for the Second War.

In an interview with Der Spiegel on 10 September, Morawiecki elaborated on the rationale: “6.2 trillion zlotys is not a fantastic amount. The budget of the entire Federal Republic of Germany, that is, the budget of the federal government, is almost the same amount as the budget of the states. Poland is the only country in the Second World War that suffered the most, but was not compensated. First, we address the Berlin government with a diplomatic note. […] We also believe that the analysis of the Germans that Poland withdrew from the claim for compensation in its 1953 agreement with East Germany was wrong. It was the Soviet Union that once forced Poland to do this. The Poles could not claim compensation from the socialists. Moscow forced its confidant in Warsaw, Bolesław Bierut, to reconcile, and the issue was never brought up to the Polish parliament. No instruments of ratification were submitted to the United Nations (UN). We do not recognize the agreement. Since half of the victims in Poland are citizens of Jewish origin, we would like to conduct the interviews in Berlin and invite Israeli representatives as well. At a later stage, it is possible to bring our claims to international courts.”

In July, Polish Deputy Prime Minister and PiS leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski said that many people in Poland suffer from “Stockholm syndrome” against Germany. Kaczynski, who met with voters in Gruetz, said: “Many Poles suffer from what is called Stockholm syndrome, the victim’s love for the murderer. We need to get rid of this. We have a lesson to learn. ”

Pointing out that Germany has not settled accounts with Warsaw, Kaczynski said the issue is not only about receiving compensation for crimes committed during the Second World War. Stating that hundreds of thousands of war criminals were not convicted in Germany after the war and many of them even held office, Kaczynski said, “We are also talking about moral compensation here.”

Reminding that Berlin paid compensation to 70 different countries after the war, the deputy prime minister said: “Mexico is an example. Even such countries which were not harmed at all, received a small amount of compensation. Italy got compensation, but we didn’t. This is not going to end this way. ”

Warsaw, or the right-wing PiS government, uses the issue of compensation as a trump in its geopolitical conflict with Germany. As a matter of fact, Germany recently appointed Bernd Freytag von Loringhoven’s son Arndt von Loringhoven, one of Adolf Hitler’s deputies, as ambassador to Poland.

What about Polexit?

The European Union, led by Germany, accuses Poland of “undermining the rule of law” on the grounds that it has had too much influence in the process of electing the judges of the Constitutional Court, and therefore the decisions taken by the court are not based on the law but on the political will of the government.

On 7 October 2021, the Polish Constitutional Court issued a ruling that displeased Brussels. The court ruled that some of the EU’s laws contradict the Polish Constitution and said in the justified decision that the country’s EU membership and the agreements signed no longer mean that the highest legal power should be transferred to the EU courts.

Didier Reynders, EU Commissioner for Justice, said on the same day, “Brussels will use all means to ensure that EU law is respected in Poland. The principle that EU law comes before national law and the binding nature of the decisions taken by the EU judiciary are at the heart of the confederation of states. “

Warsaw, which does not want to lose EU funds at the moment, and Brussels, which witnessed Brexit, do not want Poland to leave the EU. However, Berlin and Brussels support former EU Commission President Donald Tusk in next year’s general elections to turn the situation in their favour.

In the months that followed, on the other hand, both the European Parliament and Warsaw pledged that payments would be made first, and that this was a process that is independent of judicial reform.

However, it was later confirmed that negotiations on cohesion funds between Warsaw and Brussels are ongoing. Poland’s Permanent Representative to the EU, Andrzej Sadoś, told the PAP agency: “I can confirm that the Minister of Funds and Regional Policies, Grzegorz Puda, has promised that further programmes have been adopted and that Warsaw will ensure proper progress for the next programmes in accordance with the regulations. The negotiations are expected to be concluded within a few months.”

In addition, President Andrzej Duda was more cautious. In an interview with TVP Info, Duda said: “If these media reports are confirmed, it will be revealed that EU institutions are interfering with Polish politics and forcing Polish society to remove the country’s officials from their seats.”

Polish Chief Prosecutor Zbigniew Ziobro said more clearly,“Those responsible for blocking EU funds are the German politicians who gave them great support, including Obywatelska [Civil Platform] and Donald Tusk and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.”

Both the opposition and the European Commission are hinting that the funds will be awarded as soon as Donald Tusk and his team win the elections. In addition, the unofficial election campaign is already underway in the country, and Donald Tusk, supported by Berlin and Brussels, seems to have a strong hand for now.

Brexit Britain and Poland

Poland’s conflict with Germany and Brussels is a manifestation of the war that Brexit Britain has waged against Europe, in a bigger picture.

Poland is currently leading the Three Seas Initiatives, which include Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia. Vladimir Kozin, an academician at the Russian think-tank institute’s Strategic Research Institute and also linked to intelligence, emphasizes that the United States and Great Britain are the main sponsors of the Three Seas project.

Since its departure from the EU, Britain has been offering a new political, economic and military alliance to include both Poland and Ukraine and to form an alternative to the EU.

EUROPE

Scholz comments on İmamoğlu’s detention

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German Chancellor Olaf Scholz made a statement regarding the detention of Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu.

According to DW Türkçe, Scholz, speaking at the beginning of the summit that brought EU leaders together in Brussels on Thursday, said, “Allow me to address an issue that is very important to me on a current occasion. In recent years, we have made great efforts to further develop relations between Europe and Türkiye. In this context, the detention of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu, a centrally important opposition politician, is a very, very bad sign.”

“This development is upsetting for Turkish democracy as well as for the relations between Europe and Türkiye,” Scholz said, calling on Türkiye to allow a policy where “the opposition and the government are in competition” and “the opposition is not held accountable in the judiciary.”

Scholz later shared these words in English on his personal social media account.

Yesterday, the German Foreign Ministry also stated about the detention of İmamoğlu and his colleagues, “It is a heavy blow to democracy in Türkiye. Protecting the rights of the people’s elected representatives is an important part of supporting the rule of law.”

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French defense industry gears up for war amid EU strategic autonomy push

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The French defense industry is beginning to ramp up more than three years after the war broke out in Ukraine, and as the European Union seeks to build its strategic autonomy.

Today (March 20), Armed Forces Minister Sébastien Lecornu and Economy Minister Éric Lombard will make a highly symbolic visit to inaugurate the new facility of the Eurenco group.

The facility in Bergerac will move the production of 1,800 tons of heavy weapons gunpowder per year from Germany, Italy, and Sweden to France. The company claims it has doubled its sales since 2022 and that its order books are full until 2029.

France’s defense budget, which is 50.5 billion euros this year, is projected to reach 67.5 billion euros in 2030. President Emmanuel Macron has repeatedly stressed that the entire sector should expect a “significant” increase in public orders. This is welcome news for French defense manufacturers, even if the funding issue is far from resolved.

“In November 2021, the Ministry of Defense contacted me to produce ammunition for special forces,” Olivier Lacreuse, President of Plubeau & Cie, told Euractiv.

The company, based near Belfort, initially specialized in precision metalwork for the railway industry and sporting ammunition.

Lacreuse says, “Two models of our ammunition have been approved, and we opened our new factory last Monday, but I am still struggling to secure my raw material supply. I import my cartridge cases from the US, but I am looking for suppliers in France due to the current geopolitical instability.”

Jean-Michel Jacques, a member of Ensemble pour la République (Together for the Republic) and Chairman of the National Assembly’s Defense and Armed Forces Committee, said that the development of France’s defense industry depends on better communication so that companies are “aware” of the needs of the Armed Forces Ministry.

The increase in defense spending is also expected to accelerate the transformation of struggling sectors such as the automotive industry. The Fonderie de Bretagne foundry in the Lorient region, which produces spare parts for Renault and faces bankruptcy, will be taken over by the French Europlasma group. The company plans to produce 24,000 metal casings for artillery shells every day at the facility.

France’s defense industry can also count on its exports, which reached 18 billion euros in 2024, its best result except for 2022.

Increased conflicts worldwide and rising tensions with the US may encourage new buyers to invest in French military equipment.

Sales of Rafale fighter jets, submarines, drones, missiles, and Caesar howitzers naturally benefit major manufacturers such as Dassault Aviation, Safran, and Thales, all of which announced strong profits in 2024, but many small and medium-sized enterprises are also signing contracts abroad.

For example, RTSYS, a company specializing in underwater acoustics and robotics, generates approximately 90% of its revenue from exports to Europe and Asia.

“We expect strong growth in our business in the coming years. With rising tensions in the South China Sea and the recent attacks on Baltic Sea cables, everyone realizes that underwater infrastructure needs to be monitored,” the company’s director, François-Xavier de Cointet, told Euractiv.

Following the European Commission’s announcement of a plan to raise 800 billion euros through loans and debt for defense, French MP Jacques said that French defense companies should coordinate at the continental level.

“The production of new weapons being coordinated at a continental level will help the growth of French industry, contrary to what some people think. We can easily imagine French groups setting up factories in other European countries, just as foreign companies can establish themselves in France,” Jacques said.

For now, the European defense industry and technology base accounts for 33% of global arms exports, including American companies that manufacture in Europe.

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Germany amends constitution to allow increased armament

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The German Federal Parliament (Bundestag) has passed a bill proposing an amendment to the constitutional debt brake to pave the way for armament.

In the vote requiring a two-thirds majority, 512 members of parliament voted in favor, while 207 opposed, with no abstentions.

The amendment was made possible after the CDU/CSU and SPD brought the bill to parliament, and the Greens also approved it. If the vote had been held with the Bundestag composition from the early elections on February 23, the amendment would not have passed due to likely objections from AfD and Die Linke.

Now, the Federal Council (Bundesrat) will also need to approve the amendment on Friday. A two-thirds majority is also required in the state parliaments. The states where CDU/CSU, SPD, and the Greens are in government together hold 41 of the 69 votes in the Bundesrat.

However, Free Voters leader Hubert Aiwanger has already given up opposing new borrowing, so Bavaria will vote in favor of the Federal Constitutional amendments on Friday. Thus, the majority will be secured.

During the discussion of the bill, Johannes Fechter of the SPD defended the urgency to make the amendment, arguing that quick decisions are now necessary due to the “situation in the world.”

Fechter claimed that the new Federal Parliament could only take action “in a few months” and emphasized that the members of parliament had enough time to discuss the constitutional amendment.

Fechter accused those who criticized the plan of being “extensions of Putin.”

AfD parliamentary group secretary Bernd Baumann made harsh criticisms in his speech and said that the CDU/CSU prevented experts from being heard in the budget commission.

Baumann accused Federal Parliament President Bärbel Bas of the SPD of deliberately delaying the gathering of the new Federal Parliament and accused CDU leader Merz of wanting to buy power with new debts, “as in banana republics.”

The AfD member, arguing that the CDU/CSU had retreated from all election promises, said that the votes were rigged and the voters were deceived.

CDU/CSU parliamentary leader Thorsten Frei insisted that everything was “legal,” arguing that the old Federal Parliament composition was “fully capable of taking action.”

Greens representative Irene Mihalic emphasized that they were not in favor of the quick decision-making procedure in the old Federal Parliament, while accusing the AfD of “using procedural rules to divide the parliament” and argued that it was important for “democracy to remain resistant to the AfD.”

Christian Görke from the Left Party (Die Linke) spoke of a situation that was “unworthy of parliamentary procedure.” Görke said that it was a scandal for the Federal Parliament to make such decisions and argued that all of this was “disrespectful to the state.” The Left Party, directing harsh criticism at the Greens, claimed that “they allowed themselves to be bought for a few billion euros.”

Speaking on behalf of BSW, Jessica Tatti announced that she would vote in favor of the AfD’s motion to remove mass debts from the agenda. While BSW did not submit its own motion, Tatti accused the Left Party of refusing to quickly convene the new Federal Parliament session with the AfD to block the constitutional amendment.

After procedural discussions, the speeches of the “heavyweights” began. SPD leader Lars Klingbeil was the first speaker, mentioning a “historic decision that could show a new direction to the country.”

Claiming that peace in Europe was once again in danger, Klingbeil emphasized that Germany stood by Ukraine.

However, pointing out that the situation had recently deteriorated significantly, the SPD leader said that Germany now had to do its “homework” and stated, “We will do everything we can to protect peace.”

Arguing that the debt brake had made management very difficult in recent years, Klingbeil said that there was now a “historic compromise” to solve this problem.

Klingbeil emphasized that it was a correct signal to show that the “democratic center” could take action, while pointing out that the bill was the largest financial package in the history of the Federal Republic.

“These investments will make our country stronger,” said the SPD leader, suggesting that the majority of Germans would be relieved by the debt package.

Later, CDU leader Friedrich Merz emphasized that there were no “new national goals” in the Federal Parliament: Natural resources have already been protected in the Constitution for 30 years, including “climate neutrality.”

Showing the war in Ukraine as the reason for easing the debt brake, Merz argued that this was also a war against Germany, emphasizing that he would always defend himself against attacks on the “open society.”

Merz emphasized that he wanted to supply the German Armed Forces (Bundeswehr) with numerous “modern systems” and obtain them from the EU as much as possible, while describing joint borrowing as the “first step” towards a European defense community. The CDU leader also defended “private assets” for infrastructure.

Saying that he wanted “the reduction of bureaucracy” and a state that could move, Merz argued that this would be a good justification for new debts and announced that he would vote in favor of the constitutional amendments today with a “clear conscience.”

Speaking on behalf of the Greens, Britta Haßelmann attacked the Left Party, saying that they did not face the realities in Europe. “Stop slandering the Greens at this point,” said Haßelmann, claiming that the Greens “could not be bought.”

Claiming that the Left Party now had to explain to the citizens “why they were against civil defense,” Haßelmann also addressed Merz directly, saying that “democratic parties” had to regain the public’s trust.

On behalf of the AfD, party and parliamentary group leader Tino Chrupalla spoke. He pointed out that the CDU/CSU and the traffic light coalition had agreed to allow the old Federal Parliament to make important decisions for months.

Pointing out that they were now using the old majorities because they did not have a majority in the new Federal Parliament, Chrupalla said, “What a great show they are putting on for us here.”

Arguing that voters felt betrayed by Merz, the AfD leader said that the CDU leader was only interested in the chancellorship, shouting, “You have no backbone.”

Chrupalla stated that the “special fund” instrument was misused without a need being identified.

Taking the floor, SPD Defense Minister Boris Pistorius argued that advancing German defense was “the order of the day.” Pistorius referred to the changing threat situation due to the war in Ukraine and the US’s focus on the Indo-Pacific region and said, “Our responsibility is increasing, and the burden we have to bear as Europeans is also increasing.”

Saying that Germans would have to play a central role in this regard, the minister said, “This means more soldiers, more equipment, faster operational readiness. In short, the financial needs for this will increase significantly.”

Arguing that this was “about the safety of our children and grandchildren,” Pistorius claimed, “The threat situation comes before the cash situation.”

AfD honorary chairman Alexander Gauland also took the floor and made “a few personal statements.” Reminding that he had previously been involved in politics in the CDU and had been in the same party with Merz for a long time, Gauland argued that the current CDU leader was “a victim of Merkel’s desire for power.”

Noting that he hoped that Germany would have a center-right policy with Merz’s leadership, Gaulan argued that instead, Merz had sacrificed “everything that was still conservative or bourgeois [bürgerlich]” in the CDU.

Predicting that Merz would fail just like the traffic light government, the AfD member said that the likely chancellor only had “yesterday’s answers for tomorrow’s problems.”

Arguing that a real turning point could only be experienced with the AfD, Gaulan said, “As of this week, the Merz CDU is a continuation of the Merkel CDU.”

AfD politician Michael Espendiller said, “The defense budget should also be financed from the normal budget.”

Arguing that the problem was not money but the waste of money, Espendiller reminded that the protection of Bundeswehr barracks only by private security services costs billions of dollars a year and stated that defense projects regularly cost much more than expected.

According to the AfD member, there is a “mentality” in the defense sector as it was 50 years ago, and Germany does not have a revenue problem but a spending problem.

BSW leader Sahra Wagenknecht criticized “climate-labeled war loans,” comparing the ‘CO2 footprint’ of tanks and small cars.

Accusing Merz of pursuing a policy that brings the AfD even closer to an absolute majority because he does not want to talk to the AfD, Wagenknecht accused the CDU leader of “adding fuel to the fire” in the Ukraine war.

Arguing that Germany was now on the way to becoming an “economic dwarf,” the BSW leader complained about “systematic counting errors” against her party in the Federal Parliament elections and argued that if a recount was not carried out, the parliament would lack democratic legitimacy.

At the end of Wagenknecht’s speech, BSW deputies unfurled banners. The banners read, “Not 1914, 2024. NO to war loans.”

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