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MIDDLE EAST

Israel’s ‘negotiations’ deception

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According to Egyptian intelligence, negotiations for a ceasefire in Gaza will continue until the US presidential election. Israel believes that the US will develop a ‘different approach’ if Trump wins the election.

Egyptian intelligence reportedly believes that the ongoing negotiations between Israel and Hamas on a prisoner swap and ceasefire agreement in Gaza could last until the US presidential election in November.

According to the Lebanese daily Al-Akhbar, Egyptian sources believe that the prisoner swap and ceasefire agreement between Hamas and Israel will not be finalised until after the US elections. According to the newspaper, which cited an unnamed source, Egyptian intelligence has submitted a report to the presidency on the ceasefire process in Gaza.

The report predicted that the ongoing negotiations between Israel and Hamas on a prisoner swap and ceasefire agreement in Gaza might not last until after the US presidential elections in November, and included scenarios in which attacks on Gaza would continue until the end of the year.

The source said that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu believes that with the possibility of former US President Donald Trump returning to power, a different approach will develop in the US administration regarding the attacks on Gaza.

Commitment to end the war

On the other hand, J.D. Vance, the Republican vice-presidential candidate, said he would call on Israel to end the war in Gaza “as soon as possible”.

In an interview with Fox News, Vance argued that US President Joe Biden had allowed the war to go on too long. Joe Biden has made it harder and harder to win the war,’ Vance said, arguing that the longer the war goes on, the harder it will be for Israel and the harder it will be to achieve a sustainable peace. Vance claimed that Trump would revive the process of reaching a peace deal with Saudi Arabia and that this would be an appropriate response to Iran.

In a debate with Biden at the end of June, Trump accused Biden of acting ‘like a Palestinian’ in the conflict between Israel and Hamas and said ‘Israel must be allowed to finish the job’.

If Trump wins the presidential election, Israel seems to hope that it will be able to continue its massacres and occupation of Gaza more easily and start the negotiation process with Arab countries without imposing a two-state solution.

The negotiation process

US President Joe Biden announced on 31 May that Israel had presented a new ceasefire proposal consisting of 3 phases. Although Biden said that this proposal belonged to Israel, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu said that they would continue their attacks on Gaza until the “set goals” were achieved.

Netanyahu claimed in his speech to the Parliamentary Foreign Affairs and Defence Committee on 3 June that there were ‘gaps’ between Israel’s proposal and Biden’s.

MIDDLE EAST

Shin Bet Director dismissed amid ‘Qatargate’ probe

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The Israeli government has unanimously dismissed Shin Bet Director Ronen Bar. Bar stated that the real intention behind his dismissal was to “continue ceasefire negotiations without reaching an agreement.” Referencing the Qatargate scandal investigated by Shin Bet, Bar said his dismissal “smells of foreign interests and an unprecedented conflict of interest.”

In a first for Israel, the director of Shin Bet, considered an independent institution, was dismissed by a cabinet decision. Bar did not attend the meeting where the dismissal was to be voted on, despite being summoned, but sent a letter to the ministers.

In his letter, Bar refuted Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s claim that there was a trust issue between them, which Netanyahu cited as the reason for the dismissal. Bar stated, “There has been intense and effective cooperation between Shin Bet under my leadership and the Prime Minister.”

Arguing that the Shin Bet Director should be loyal to the people, not the Prime Minister, Bar said, “Netanyahu could not support the reasons he put forward for my dismissal. Despite my request, no concrete examples were provided.”

Bar argued that Netanyahu’s insistence on the lack of trust between them was not a valid basis, but that his real intention was to continue ceasefire negotiations in Gaza without reaching an agreement.

Bar stated that Netanyahu’s decision to exclude him and Mossad Chief David Barnea from the ceasefire and prisoner exchange negotiations harmed the delegation and prevented any progress in the release of prisoners.

Bar added that Netanyahu is taking steps that will “weaken the country both internally and against its enemies.”

According to Bar, the decision is driven by “foreign interests and conflict of interest.”

Shin Bet Director Bar also referred to the “Qatargate” investigation in Israel, conducted by Shin Bet, regarding allegations that Netanyahu’s close advisors received money from Qatar through shell companies.

Bar stated, “Important investigative steps are being taken. Following the disruption of these steps by a sudden and hasty dismissal based on completely unfounded allegations, there is a smell of foreign interests and an unprecedented conflict of interest.”

He warned that the dismissal, initiated by Prime Minister Netanyahu, sends a dangerous message to those under investigation and could jeopardize the outcome of the investigation.

The government’s decision to dismiss the Shin Bet Director has been taken to the High Court.

The Movement for Quality Government requested the decision be halted in a petition to the High Court.

The decision also drew a swift reaction from the opposition. Yisrael Beytenu party leader Avigdor Liberman said, “By firing Shin Bet Director Ronen Bar, Netanyahu is doing exactly what our enemies dream of.”

The main opposition leader Yair Lapid says that the government dismissed Bar “for one reason only”: to stop the Qatargate investigation.

Lapid stated, “The opposition parties will jointly object to this reckless move to legitimize the infiltration of a hostile state into the prime minister’s office.”

The “Qatargate” discussions began with allegations that millions of dollars were taken from Qatar and transferred to Netanyahu’s election campaign.

These allegations turned into an investigation conducted by Shin Bet, with Prime Minister Netanyahu’s spokespeople Eliezer Feldstein and advisors Jonathan Urich and Srulik Einhorn in the defendant’s seat.

Israeli media reported that Netanyahu also received $15 million from Qatar in 2012 and $50 million in 2018.

It was reported that Feldstein was paid by an international company to support Qatar’s image, and Netanyahu’s advisors Urich and Einhorn also provided image consultancy for Qatar.

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MIDDLE EAST

Gaza ceasefire: The bell of war ringing again

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The ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas did not last long, and eventually the bell for war had sounded again. According to media reports, hundreds of Palestinians have been killed in the Gaza Strip as a result of Israeli airstrikes. Israeli officials also warned that the gates of hell had opened on Gaza. The United States also announced that it had responded positively to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s request to resume the war.

The question: Why has the Gaza war resumed?

First: These days, US President Donald Trump has been feverishly pushing for talks with Iran, which is not pleasing to the Israeli side. Trump has repeatedly emphasized the need to negotiate with Iran before pursuing other options.

More importantly, he recently sent a letter addressed to the Iranian Leader and also informed the media. The content of the letter is also focused on starting negotiations with Iran, although it is spoken from a position of power. Furthermore, Adam Boehler, Trump’s representative for Israeli hostage affairs, met with the Hamas leadership in Doha, the capital of Qatar, and evaluated the meeting as constructive, while in response to Tel Aviv’s criticism, he described Hamas members as good people.

Of course, it was recently claimed that he was removed from his position. Now, in order to prevent Trump and Iran from entering the negotiating line and for the US to avoid direct talks with Hamas, the Israeli side has wanted to make the situation critical so that the atmosphere for consultations remains unfavorable. Furthermore, by intensifying the attacks, Netanyahu wants to force Hamas to accept conditions that the group has so far refused to accept.

Second: In the meantime, Trump also has specific goals that he is seeking to achieve: forcing Iran to negotiate. Trump has repeatedly emphasized establishing peace; but from the position of exercising power, using the tools of sanctions and military threats. The deadly airstrikes by the US military on Yemeni Houthi positions and the hints and insinuations of Trump and his entourage towards Iran are also intended to force Tehran to agree to negotiations, and that is, negotiations whose terms and conditions are determined by the American side.

Trump’s green light to resume the Gaza war could also be in this direction, because if the ceasefire goes ahead as included in the agreement, the American and Israeli sides believe that Iran and the so-called “axis of resistance” will declare themselves victorious, and in that case Tehran will either refuse to negotiate or will try to enter the arena from a strong position.

Third: It is true that Trump signed the plan to resume the war, but he will not support the continuation of the war and its spread, for three reasons:

1- it would contradict the slogans that Trump has constantly chanted to end wars. More importantly, since he values ​​the principle of “cost-benefit” so much, his support for a long and consequential war would harm the achievement of the larger goals he has in mind.

Therefore, it supports what Netanyahu wants to a certain extent, which is natural; but it seems unlikely that the previous US administration would want to continuously pump advanced weapons and military equipment into Israel for more than a year.

2- Second, Trump’s support for a long war that results in the deaths of Palestinian civilians could undermine the prospects for expanding the Abraham Accords, an agreement that Trump holds in high regard and cites as the most important achievement of her first administration.

Arab governments also have a sense of dignity and prestige and will not join this treaty for free, especially Saudi Arabia. Therefore, Trump does not want the scope of this treaty to remain narrow.

3- If Trump agrees to support a large-scale and high-consequence war in Gaza, America will be stuck in the Middle East, which will sideline the rest of the White House’s priorities: Ending the war in Ukraine, a trade war with China, Canada, Europe, etc. When the US is once again involved in the Gaza conflict, Russia will become bolder and, instead of giving in to Trump’s demand to sign a ceasefire agreement, will insist on continuing the war to occupy more territory in Ukraine. The trade war with China and Europe also requires that Trump be comfortable with the Middle East.

4- Netanyahu’s cabinet is grappling with numerous internal problems. For example, Internal Security Minister Ben-Governor resigned and left the government in response to accepting the first phase of the ceasefire. Smotrich, another Netanyahu ally, has also warned that he will resign in response to accepting the second phase, which would lead to the collapse of the cabinet.

Apart from that, the risk of launching a comprehensive investigation to clarify the dimensions of the October 7 attack is also prominent, which is possible in the absence of war conditions. In recent days, a serious disagreement between Netanyahu and Shin Bet chief Ronen Bar has flared up, leading to the latter’s dismissal. This dismissal is said to be related to the risk of leaking documents that could jeopardize Netanyahu’s political life.

Now, the simple and inexpensive way to keep the government going and quell internal disputes is to resume the war with Hamas, so that the opposing and supporting view of the external enemy is fixed. In the meantime, the protests of the families of the hostages and the opposition forces are important as a deterrent; but not to the extent of the internal conflict in the cabinet, the disclosure of documents and the preparation of the investigation file into the October 7 attack, which could put an end to the life of the Netanyahu government.

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MIDDLE EAST

Israeli army expands ground invasion in Gaza

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The Israeli army is expanding its ground invasion in Gaza after resuming attacks and breaking the ceasefire. The Israeli army, which initially entered the Netzarim Corridor, bisecting Gaza along a north-south axis, has announced the commencement of a ground invasion in the north. In response to Israel’s intensified attacks, Hamas targeted Tel Aviv for the first time in five months.

In a statement, the Israeli army announced the start of ground operations in the northern Gaza Strip, adding that the operations are being conducted jointly with Shin Bet, its internal intelligence agency.

Ground operations have reportedly begun off the coast of the Beit Lahia region in the northern Gaza Strip, preceded by aerial targeting of Hamas sites in the area.

The statement noted that attacks on Gaza continued throughout the night, purportedly targeting military structures and weapons.

The statement also affirmed that attacks on the Gaza Strip are ongoing.

Conversely, it is anticipated that Israel will conduct even more intensive attacks in Gaza than its previous operations, which resulted in the deaths of thousands of civilians.

The Walla news site reported that the Israeli army used the ceasefire to reinforce its strength and replenish its arsenal.

The report stated that Israel has increased the capability of its armored vehicles and added new ones to its inventory. It also assessed that the new Chief of General Staff, Eyal Zamir, with the support of the US, will use more firepower and be more aggressive.

After breaking the ceasefire with Hamas and resuming airstrikes, the Israeli army announced the resumption of its ground invasion in the Netzarim Corridor, which divides Gaza along a north-south axis.

The Israeli army, which withdrew from the Netzarim Corridor on February 9 as part of a ceasefire and prisoner exchange agreement, has reoccupied the corridor. It has also demanded that Palestinians evacuate from certain areas, announcing that the army is conducting pinpoint strikes.

While Salahaddin Street is closed, Palestinians traveling along the north-south axis of Gaza can use Rashid Street on the coast, it was noted.

Meanwhile, the Israeli army is expanding its occupation in the buffer zone around the Gaza Strip, continuing its ground invasion in the areas off Beit Lahia and Khan Yunis.

Hamas’s military wing, the Kassam Brigades, announced that it bombed Tel Aviv with M90 rockets in response to “the Zionist massacres against civilians.”

The Israeli army also announced that three long-range rockets were fired from the southern Gaza Strip towards Tel Aviv, the capital of Israel. According to the statement, one of the rockets was intercepted by air defense systems, while the other two hit open areas. This marks the first time Hamas has targeted Tel Aviv since October 7, 2024.

Furthermore, Hamas announced that negotiations with mediators are ongoing to halt Israeli attacks and force Tel Aviv to implement the agreed-upon ceasefire agreement.

Hamas Spokesman Abdullatif al-Kanu stated in a written statement that they are committed to the ceasefire agreement and are “working with mediators to save the Palestinian people from the war and to ensure the withdrawal of the occupiers from Gaza.”

Kanu added, “The blockade, starvation, and genocide being carried out against Gaza require the Arab League and the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) to take immediate action.”

Egyptian Foreign Minister Bedr Abdulati and Qatari Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Mohammed bin Abdurrahman Al Sani also discussed the situation in Gaza in a telephone conversation.

At least 710 people have died and more than 900 have been injured in the attacks launched by the Israeli army on the Gaza Strip since the morning of March 18.

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