Europe
Italian government concerned about foreign investment in financial sector
Italy’s government is concerned that merger deals between some of the country’s largest financial groups could reduce its ability to recall domestic investments during a crisis, according to a report by POLITICO.
For instance, Milan-based UniCredit, Italy’s second-largest bank, and Trieste-based Generali, the largest insurer, are exploring cross-border alliances. For policymakers, who are still grappling with the memories of the 2011-2012 eurozone crisis and facing four years of economic uncertainty with Donald Trump potentially returning to the White House, this is a worrying prospect.
In Italy, where national debt exceeds €3 trillion, or 137% of gross domestic product (GDP), the government is highly sensitive to the need for a solid and reliable investor base.
According to data from the Bank of Italy, foreign investors, who are typically more fickle, now hold more than 30% of Rome’s outstanding debt. This has led to a situation where the government feels it has less influence over its investors. Morningstar analyst Javier Rouillet notes that it is “reasonable” for Italy to seek a more “diversified” investor base in this context.
Two sources familiar with the government’s thinking revealed that politicians have long held a belief, albeit mistaken, that local companies are more trustworthy because they buy bonds for “patriotic” reasons. This belief is often exploited by local lobbyists pushing for softer regulations. However, Italian banks and insurers, like their foreign counterparts, purchase Italian bonds not to please the government but because of their favorable risk/return profile.
A government official stated, “Having our debt in domestic hands is an objective to ensure that the interest paid stays within the Italian economy. It’s not about financial institutions doing what the government wants, but there has always been a clear domestic bias in Italian-owned investment companies.”
The Ministry of Economy and Finance’s current plan involves selling up to €350 billion in bonds to finance the 2025 budget and refinance old bonds coming due, amounting to approximately €1 billion per day.
Barclays analysts noted that this figure includes €73 billion from the European Central Bank (ECB), which has begun reducing its assets after a decade of asset purchases. The Eurosystem, through the Bank of Italy, held more than a quarter of the government’s bonds at the end of September.
On the other hand, Italy’s borrowing costs have increased by 0.6 percentage points over the last six weeks. If these costs remain above 3.8%, the debt burden will grow faster than the economy can absorb, warned AXA Investment Management chief economist Gilles Moëc in a note to clients on Monday.
However, a finance ministry spokesperson highlighted the strong relative performance of Italian bonds in recent months and the fact that they still offer a significant premium compared to their eurozone peers.
Italy, France, and Germany face off
Regarding mergers, policymakers are particularly concerned about the €2 trillion merger between the asset management arms of Generali and Paris-based conglomerate Natixis, according to two sources familiar with the matter.
Talks have been ongoing for several months. Some officials worry that Generali, one of the largest historic holders of Italian government bonds, could “lose its commitment” to Italian debt in the future as part of a larger group dominated by the French. This could exacerbate Italy’s situation in the event of another financial panic, one source noted.
This development has prompted Rome to consider whether it can use its executive screening tools to influence the deal, the source added.
Similar concerns surround UniCredit’s controversial move to acquire Germany’s second-largest bank, Commerzbank. These concerns are not limited to Rome; the move has also sparked reactions in Berlin.
A report by Moody’s in October argued that an increase in the German share of UniCredit’s balance sheet would “loosen the intrinsic correlation between the creditworthiness of UniCredit and the creditworthiness of the Italian government.” This would likely lower UniCredit’s borrowing costs in the market.
However, as Commerzbank chairman and former German central bank chief Jens Weidmann noted in an interview published on Monday, the flip side is that it would expose Commerzbank’s clients in Germany to potential instability in Italy. Weidmann told Handelsblatt that such a takeover would amount to a “backdoor mutualisation of sovereign debt.”
According to company filings, UniCredit holds around €38 billion in Italian sovereign debt, while Generali holds over €30 billion.
Italy’s fear of falling behind
Italy’s skepticism about potential partnerships is also fueled by the fact that such deals often end up favoring the non-Italian partner. For Italian authorities, the defense of Commerzbank appeared particularly hypocritical, especially in light of Germany’s Lufthansa recently acquiring Italian airline ITA.
The Generali deal has reignited concerns about “French economic imperialism.” Alessandro Aresu, a geopolitical analyst and adviser to former Prime Minister Mario Draghi on investment screening, noted that most of these mergers are one-sided.
In recent years, Crédit Agricole has acquired several local banks, particularly in northern Italy, while BNP Paribas has owned Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, Italy’s sixth-largest bank, since 2008. Philippe Donnet, CEO of Generali, is also French.
While French companies have taken over Italian firms in various sectors, from luxury to media, there have been few major deals in the opposite direction. One such deal, the proposed merger between shipbuilder Fincantieri and France’s Chantiers de l’Atlantique, ultimately collapsed due to French opposition.
Prime Minister Meloni has criticized what she described as French takeovers of Italian giants, including the deal that created the automotive group Stellantis, which remains under scrutiny.
Aresu remarked that it is unsurprising that Rome has an “atavistic fear” of Generali entering French territory, adding that “Italy’s confidence will not be restored until important deals are done in which the Italian actor is the acquiring party.”
Europe
Mutual accusations of blackmail and assault overshadow AfD state election congress in Germany
The Alternative for Germany (AfD) state congress in North Rhine-Westphalia ended in chaos on Sunday.
During the selection of the 22nd position on the candidate list for next year’s state elections, delegates aligned with the far-right Bundestag member Matthias Helferich proposed more than 100 candidates. This move was reportedly designed to block the vote in the town of Marl, halting progress on the list to force negotiations for subsequent positions.
Earlier in the candidate selection process, supporters of State Co-Chairman and lead candidate Martin Vincentz, who represents the moderate wing of the party, had prevailed. The defeat of Zacharias Schalley—a figure close to Helferich—by a candidate from the Vincentz camp triggered significant discontent within the radical wing of the party. Representing approximately 40% of the delegates, Helferich’s supporters reportedly demanded strong representation in the next state parliamentary group.
During the congress, Helferich claimed that Bundestag member Knuth Meyer-Soltau, a member of the Vincentz camp, physically assaulted him. Speaking to the newspaper WELT on Sunday, the 37-year-old Helferich described the incident:
“Meyer-Soltau was passing by the row where I was sitting. He was arguing with another member. When he turned back, while I was sitting in my chair, he shouldered me and shouted, ‘Shut up, you idiot!'”
Helferich added: “I do not know if he wanted to knock me out of my chair. However, because he insulted me in anger, I cannot rule out the possibility that this was a deliberate attack.”
An email exchange sent to the federal executive board and state management revealed that Helferich filed a criminal complaint on Monday.
“Meyer-Soltau hit my chair and my body, either intentionally or through negligence”
In the complaint filed by Helferich, he stated: “Meyer-Soltau hit my chair and my upper body hard, either intentionally or through negligence; I was only able to avoid falling by holding onto the edge of the table.” The complaint also named two witnesses.
In his letter to the party leadership, Helferich wrote: “Since numerous similar incidents of electoral law significance occurred at the state election congress, I believe the duty to maintain party order falls to the Federal Executive Board.”
Meyer-Soltau, a 61-year-old lawyer like Helferich, denied the allegations. Speaking to WELT on Sunday, the lawmaker said: “I reject the accusation being made.”
Meyer-Soltau suggested that Helferich viewed him as a powerful opponent because he had previously acted as the negotiator for the state executive board in the party’s expulsion proceedings against Helferich before the Federal Arbitration Court. The party court recently rejected the expulsion request.
“It is clear that this situation has not had a positive impact on our relationship,” Meyer-Soltau said. “Mr. Helferich, having suffered a heavy defeat at the nomination meeting, is clearly seeking satisfaction through other means. I will hand the matter over to my lawyer and take legal action.”
A letter sent to Helferich by Meyer-Soltau’s lawyer, which was leaked to the press, stated: “My client has never insulted you or physically assaulted you.” The letter demanded that Helferich cease repeating the claim and sign a cease-and-desist declaration carrying a contractual penalty.
Additionally, Meyer-Soltau’s lawyer filed a criminal complaint with the Dortmund Prosecutor’s Office for defamation. The petition submitted to the prosecutor’s office stated: “The accusation of physical assault is highly defamatory, calculated to permanently damage my client’s public reputation, and socially discredit him.”
Allegations of blackmail made against delegates at the congress
Allegations of threats against delegates also emerged at the state congress in Marl. Helferich ran against Klaus Esser, a close associate of Vincentz, for the 13th position on the candidate list. Esser, who needed just one vote to be elected in the first round, only secured a majority in the second round of voting.
Following the announcement of the results, a delegate took the stage to claim that before the second round, a state executive board member from the Vincentz camp went to the rows of the Wuppertal district association and threatened that a state lawmaker from Wuppertal would be expelled from the parliamentary group if the necessary votes for Esser were not delivered. The delegate announced that a complaint would be filed regarding the matter.
A spokesperson for AfD Co-Leader Alice Weidel told the media outlet “The Pioneer”: “Weidel does not approve of this situation. Such things must not happen.”
Other allegations of threats were voiced through the hall microphones during the congress. One delegate claimed that a candidate had been threatened by a district councilor and a district chairman.
“He was told that if he did not withdraw his candidacy, he would have no future in this party. There are numerous witnesses who can confirm this,” the delegate asserted.
Another delegate reported that a young woman was pressured by a district chairman who asked whether she would “lend herself to this game and submit to blackmail,” warning her that the situation would have “consequences for her in the district association.”
Marco Vogt, the Deputy Chairman of the Düsseldorf AfD and an ally of Helferich, said during his candidacy speech that young members who participated in the list disruptions had been threatened by their employers present in the hall.
Another candidate, a municipal councilor from Würselen, stated that a district administrator from the Aachen region had issued an implicit threat, telling him he would make many enemies in his own association if he did not withdraw his candidacy.
Candidate Leon Biallawons directly targeted lawmaker Knuth Meyer-Soltau, saying: “I tell you clearly, dear Knuth, I will not allow myself to be threatened by you. Because, dear Knuth, it is not you but the grassroots who will decide who succeeds in this party, and the grassroots will assert their will in the long term.”
Meyer-Soltau declined to comment on these allegations, stating: “I do not wish to comment on such baseless claims.”
Other tactics were used to slow down the proceedings at Sunday’s congress. One delegate requested a 30-minute recess because “there is an ice cream truck outside,” though this request was rejected. The convention manager, Julian Flak, was heard calling out to a delegate: “Take that garden furniture outside immediately!”
A message shared on Saturday in a chat group close to Vincentz stated that the “self-proclaimed patriotic group” had threatened to completely block the congress. It was alleged that the core group led by Helferich planned to deliberately disrupt the flow of the congress to force their opponents to the negotiating table.
Weidel accused of undermining efforts in chat group
On Sunday, in the same chat group, it was written that the sabotage action was being coordinated by Federal Deputy Chairman Sven Tritschler and Helferich. The message claimed that Tritschler had discussed the move with “his boss Alice Merkel”—a reference to AfD leader Alice Weidel. “This is a clear operation of attrition. We will not bow to an Alice Merkel,” the message read.
By Monday night, the ballot for the 22nd list position contained the names of 81 candidates. Some individuals who announced their candidacies withdrew before speaking. The results are expected to be announced next weekend.
The North Rhine-Westphalia AfD association has allocated a total of four weekends for candidate selection meetings. With the party projected by public opinion polls to win between 30 and 40 seats in the state parliament, competition for the top spots on the list remains intense.
An article titled “AfD-NRW Grassroots Resist Cartel Partyization,” published Monday on a Telegram channel close to Helferich, described the events as a “heroic act” and an “impressive reaction of an alert, idealistic grassroots.” The mass candidacy process was characterized as a “combination of Carl Schmitt’s partisan theory with a democratic liberation move unprecedented in AfD history.”
The article argued that if lead candidate Vincentz wants to translate polling success into a strong election result, he must unify the party by granting Helferich’s supporters viable, electable positions on the list.
Europe
EIB to unveil 15 billion euro tech initiative to scale European startups
The European Investment Bank (EIB) will announce a €15 billion initiative today, in collaboration with EU capitals and private investors, aimed at supporting the growth of European technology companies.
For decades, startups on the continent have struggled to raise the large-scale funding rounds necessary to scale on this side of the Atlantic, frequently turning to US investors or relocating abroad as they expand.
“We are catching up. Now we need to accelerate,” EIB President Nadia Calviño said.
Under the existing European Tech Champions Initiative, the EIB had already pooled resources with six EU governments to establish funds that invest in high-growth companies across the EU.
Calviño described the initiative as “very successful,” noting that it has supported 12 European “unicorn” companies valued at over $1 billion, including the German artificial intelligence translation firm DeepL.
The bank is now expanding the program with a new phase nearly four times the size of the original.
Twenty-five EU governments, alongside private investors such as Santander and Danske Bank, are expected to participate in the program.
This initial €15 billion aims to mobilize up to €80 billion in total investment. Calviño stated that this estimate is based on the multiplier effects achieved under previous programs.
As part of these efforts, the EIB also aims to attract European pension funds, which manage immense pools of capital but have historically allocated fewer resources to technology investments compared to their US counterparts.
In addition to the new funding, Calviño noted that the EIB will create a platform providing a single point of access for existing European scale-up initiatives, including the European Commission’s Scaleup Europe Fund, France’s Tibi initiative, and Germany’s Win initiative.
Europe
Germany to purchase US Tomahawk missiles to build own long-range strike capability
Germany will purchase Tomahawk cruise missiles from the United States and deploy them on German territory, Chancellor Friedrich Merz announced on Thursday.
The move marks a shift away from planned US deployments and toward Germany establishing its own long-range strike capability.
Merz told lawmakers that he finalized the agreement with the US government during the NATO summit in Ankara, adding that the talks held on Tuesday and Wednesday had exceeded his expectations.
“While we close a critical strategic gap in our defense, we are also working to develop our own European systems and deploy them in Europe,” the Chancellor said.
According to German government sources, Washington committed in a letter of intent signed on Tuesday to approve Germany’s acquisition of Tomahawk missiles and their land-based Typhon launchers in August.
The number of missiles and launchers Germany plans to purchase was not disclosed because the information is classified.
The planned acquisition appears aligned with US President Donald Trump’s pressure on European allies to cover their own security costs, such as by purchasing US weapons.
The fate of the Tomahawk procurement had become uncertain after Trump announced in May that he would reduce the US military presence in Germany.
That development was seen as a cancellation of a plan made under the previous administration to deploy a US battalion equipped with long-range Tomahawk missiles to Germany.
That original plan was designed as a temporary solution to serve as a strong deterrent against Russia while Europeans developed their own versions of such weapons.
Germany produces its own cruise missile, the Taurus, but its range of approximately 311 miles is three to five times shorter than that of the Tomahawk missiles.
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