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Pascal Kohler – the herald of Kaja Kallas

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Editor’s Note: Moscow-based Swiss geopolitical analyst and legal expert Dr. Peter Hänseler responds to Swiss officer Pascal Kohler’s article published in ASMZ, which targets military analyst Jacques Baud. In his article featured on Forum Geopolitica, Hänseler proves that Kohler’s claims regarding subjects such as Bucha, Skripal, Navalny, and the Ukraine war contradict the actual statements found in Baud’s books, and accuses Kohler of plagiarizing from Wikipedia without citation. Furthermore, he points out that Kohler distorted Baud’s analyses to slander him, producing a smear piece with an amateurism unbecoming of an officer.


Kohler’s article in the Allgemeine Schweizerische Militär Zeitschrift (ASMZ)

On 30 December 2025, the ASMZ published an article by Kohler entitled «Kognitive Zermürbung: Die Logik hinter dem Fall Baud» (‘Cognitive attrition: The logic behind the Baud case’). This article is a vicious, defamatory attack on the most objective military analyst in the Western hemisphere, Jacques Baud.

In the lead-in to the article, Kohler does not describe the sanctions as ‘a blow to the freedom of expression of an individual’. He describes them as ‘rather a precise intervention in the logistics of modern hybrid warfare’, deliberately omitting what he believes ‘hybrid’ warfare to mean. Kohler thus insinuates that the EU is waging war – nota bene against a fellow Swiss officer – and that this justifies the suppression of freedom of expression. Kohler not only supports the EU’s sanctioning of Baud, but also assures the EU of the Swiss army’s support in this fight. It can be assumed that the Swiss army leadership is behind this strategy, otherwise a subordinate would not have written such an inflammatory article on the ASMZ website. However, I was unable to find any confirmation of this.

Kohler does not work carefully; rather, it seems that he did not even formulate his specific accusations against Baud himself, but simply copied them from Wikipedia, without citing the source, of course. This is plagiarism from a source that no serious geopolitician would touch.

On the ASMZ website, he describes his work as follows:

‘He is currently Head of International Cooperation & Training in the Operations Command, responsible for coordinating and implementing international training and engagements.’

— Pascal Kohler, ASZM

Whatever this verbiage may mean, Kohler is head of training, and as head of training, he must set an example. A role model does not copy information from Wikipedia without citing the source and sell it as his own. In addition, Kohler deliberately neglects the real sources completely; those sources that contain Baud’s statements – the books by Jacques Baud himself.

The work of Jacques Baud

Jacques Baud’s real statements on many geopolitical issues are exhaustively covered in his books, which are pure analyses and in which Baud relies exclusively on Western and Ukrainian sources.

In none of his publications has Baud ever taken sides in any of the conflicts he has analysed. Jacques Baud’s statements in his books are exhaustive, as he does not use social media channels. We therefore compare the statements made by Kohler with the statements actually made by Jacques Baud.

Preliminary remarks on the defamatory statements

I have carefully read all the passages on all the topics raised by Kohler in his pamphlet in Jacques Baud’s books. Baud’s analyses are very accurate, detailed and clearly referenced with footnotes and sources, as befits a scientific work.

In order to make this article manageable for readers in terms of length, I will analyse Kohler’s slander regarding Butscha in detail by quoting longer passages from Baud’s books.

For the other topics – Skripal, Navalny, etc. – I will limit myself to quoting short passages from Baud’s work, which does not mean, however, that Baud has not written detailed analyses with references for all topics.


Bucha – 2022

Regarding Bucha, Kohler writes the following:

‘In the case of Bucha, he interprets the documented massacre as having been planned by the British and carried out by the Ukrainians – a thesis that contradicts German intelligence recordings of Russian soldiers’ conversations about killings and satellite images of corpses during the Russian occupation.’

— Kohler, 30 December 2025

Jacques Baud wrote the following in his book ‘Operation Z’ in 7.3.2:

“[…] What exactly happened there? No one knows. But some civilians were executed, while others appear to have been collateral victims of the fighting. As for responsibility, Ukraine accuses the Russian army, while Russia claims it was a fabrication.”

Baud describes the sequence of events as follows:

Date Incident/Facts
March 29 The Russian command decides to withdraw troops west of Kyiv toward Donbas to launch phase 2 of the operation.
March 30 The Russians are leaving.
March 31 Anatoliy Fedoruk, mayor of Bucha, announces the withdrawal of Russian forces on Telegram[i] with satisfaction. He makes no mention of corpses or massacres: “March 31 will be remembered in the history of our community of Bucha as a day of liberation. Liberation by our Ukrainian armed forces from the Russian ‘orcs’, the Russian occupiers. That is why I am declaring today a day of joy. A joyful day and a great victory for the Kyiv region! And we will certainly wait for there to be a great victory throughout Ukraine.”[ii]
March 31 The Ukrainian media company Unian confirms the withdrawal of Russian forces and reports on statements made by the mayor of Bucha, without mentioning the bodies or massacres in the city[iii].
April 1 Ukrainian forces are combing the area in search of saboteurs and Russian collaborators (a Ukrainian video shows Ukrainian paramilitaries asking to be allowed to shoot those who are not wearing blue armbands).
April 1 A video shows corpses on the street that have not been there for three weeks, but whose positions resemble those in the satellite images from March 11. Some are wearing white armbands, others have their wrists bound with white cloth, others have Russian aid packages with them, and others were executed in a basement.
April 2 Ukrainian blogger Dimitry Komarov roams the city and shows the damage left behind after the Russian troops withdrew. He makes no mention of corpses or massacres[iv]. On the same day, the Ukrainian news site Unian reports that special forces have “liberated the city from saboteurs and collaborators with Russian troops”[v]. The SAFARI unit of the Ukrainian police enters the city to carry out mine clearance and demining work in case the Russians have mined the city. The video[vi]shot by the unit does not show a massacre, but access to it via YouTube is restricted.
April 3 Ukraine accuses Russian forces of committing a massacre on the streets of Bucha. Reports of a mass grave actually refer to the exhumation of a previously registered burial site in the church cemetery on March 13.

On April 4, the New York Times publishes a satellite photo of the scene from March 11, 2022, almost three weeks before the “discovery” of the bodies[i] (the date of which is later changed to March 19 for no reason). Two facts are surprising: that the Russians allegedly left the bodies lying on the street for three weeks, even though they had carefully buried other victims in the area during that period, and that the bodies remained in exactly the same position during that entire time.

It is also known that the New York Times image was provided by Maxar, a company that works for the US government. We also know which satellites Maxar uses, their trajectory, their position at a given time, and their overflight times. Using this information and measuring the shadows, we can determine exactly on which day the photo was taken. A group of independent Russian analysts was able to determine that the photo was taken on April 1 at 11:57 GMT (2:57 p.m. local time) [ii]. This is confirmed by traces of a violent thunderstorm that hit the city on the night of March 31 to April 1. Strangely, Maxar does not provide images of this area for March 21 and 23, even though they are listed in the catalog.

Furthermore, other facts give cause for caution:

  • On April 4, the Pentagon announces that it is unable to confirm Russia’s responsibility in the Bucha affair.
  • Ukrainian Socialist MP Ilya Kiva[iv] reveals on Telegram that the Bucha tragedy was planned by the British intelligence service MI6 and carried out by the SBU[v].
  • In June 2022, Italian television station TG24 investigates the killings and crimes against civilians who allegedly collaborated with Russian forces and concludes that this was the case in Bucha.
  • Other images from Maxar taken in the same area at a different time “weigh” 100 MB, while the image of the “massacre” is barely 50 MB, suggesting that it has been manipulated to conceal manipulation.

None of this proves anything in itself, but it shows that what is presented to us as indisputable is anything but clear.

As Ignazio Cassis, Swiss Foreign Minister, explains:

“These are not war crimes unless a court has determined that they are.”

— Ignazio Cassis, April 7, 2022

Slander 1: Baud never wrote or said what Kohler claims

Baud never claimed that Bucha was planned by British intelligence. He clearly stated that no one knows what happened there.

In his remarks, Baud merely quotes a post on X by Ukrainian MP Ilya Kiva, who was murdered in Moscow on December 6, 2023. On December 6, 2023, the BBC reported that Kyva had been murdered by the Ukrainian secret service SBU.

Against his better judgment, Kohler is passing off the statement made by the murdered Kiva as a statement made by Baud.

Baud agreed with Federal Councilor Ignazio Cassis, who stated on Swiss television on April 7, 2022:

“These are not war crimes as long as no court has determined that they are.”

— Ignazio Cassis, April 7, 2022


Skripal – 2018

Regarding Skripal, Kohler writes the following:

“In the case of the attack on Skripal in 2018, he interprets the proven nerve agent as something else.”

— Kohler, December 30, 2025

Jacques Baud wrote the following in section 8.6.5 of his book “Fake News”:

We will limit ourselves here to two quotes from Baud’s book; the entire analysis can be found in the book.

“Furthermore, the initial report compiled after the victims were admitted to hospital mentioned fentanyl poisoning, as Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty reported in September 2018, without mentioning ‘Novichok’[i]. The Salisbury Journal of March 5 also mentions possible fentanyl poisoning[ii]

“The silence of the British and Western authorities on this issue suggests that the analysis was unable to confirm Russia’s guilt. But in fact, we know nothing about it.

Slander 2: Baud never wrote or said what Kohler claims

Baud does not interpret anything; he analyzes the official findings and statements with precise references and concludes that the analyses cannot confirm Russia’s guilt – nothing more.


Navalny – 2020

Regarding Navalny, Kohler writes the following:

“In the Navalny case in 2020, he claimed it was a mafia act, even though the use of Novichok was verified by independent OPCW certification laboratories and the involvement of FSB agents was proven.”

— Kohler, December 30, 2025

In his book “The Navalny Case,” Jacques Baud wrote the following in section 7.1:

“Analysis of the Navalny case shows that at every stage of the proceedings, the explanations that were systematically selected from the range of possible explanations were those that fit the narrative of poisoning with Novichok and thus must have been ordered by Vladimir Putin. The fact that Skripal and Navalny’s symptoms were completely different, that neither of them showed symptoms of nerve agent poisoning, that neither of them showed the long-term effects associated with Novichok poisoning, or that Novichok was also produced by Western countries, did not cause the media or politicians to exercise caution.

On the contrary, foreign policy is being shaped and measures with uncertain consequences are being taken based solely on the telephone “confession” of an agent whose identity and status no one could verify, and on secret military reports.”

“Since the reports from the German, French, and Swedish laboratories and the OPCW are classified as secret, we do not know their content. However, it can be assumed that if their conclusions had clearly confirmed the presence of Novichok, they would have been published in more detail.”

Slander 3: Baud never wrote or said what Kohler claims

Baud never used the term “mafia-like” as claimed by Kohler. In his detailed analysis, Baud merely concludes that the German, French, and Swedish laboratories were unable to verify the “desired” result. Kohler’s claims that Novichok and the involvement of the FSB have been proven are false.


Osama bin Laden – 2001

Regarding Osama bin Laden, Kohler writes the following:

“On historical events: Baud claimed that Osama bin Laden had nothing to do with September 11.”

— Kohler, December 30, 2025

Jacques Baud wrote the following in his book Gouverner par les Fake News (Governing by Fake News) – Section 5.4:

In June 2006, Rex Tomb, head of public affairs for the FBI, confirmed:

The reason “9/11” is not mentioned on the Osama bin Laden wanted poster is that the FBI has no evidence linking Bin Laden to “9/11”[iii] .

Slander 4: Baud never wrote or said what Kohler claims

Nowhere in his books did Jacques Baud ever claim that Osama bin Laden had nothing to do with September 11; he merely analyzed Western sources and concluded that not much was known about the origins of 9/11.


Cause-and-effect relationship Ukraine conflict – 2021

Regarding the Ukraine conflict in 2021, Kohler writes the following:

“He reverses the cause-and-effect relationship with regard to the invasion of Ukraine. He claims that Ukraine provoked Russia by attempting to recapture Donbass in 2022. To support his claims, he quotes a statement made by Zelensky’s advisor Arestovich in 2019, which, however, was an analytical warning of a possible Russian invasion, i.e., a security policy forecast that later tragically came true.”

— Kohler, December 30, 2025

Jacques Baud wrote the following in his book Ukraine Between War and Peace – Section 3.1:

“Ukraine’s accession to NATO is therefore only possible if Russia is unable to threaten it. Russia must therefore suffer a crushing defeat that destroys its economy, triggers a revolution and regime change, or even leads to the division of Russia into smaller entities. This is exactly what Arestovych explains: “Our price for joining NATO is a war against Russia and its defeat.” He even mentions the expected date of this war: “2021 or 2022”[iv] !”

Slander 5: What Kohler claims, Baud never wrote or said

Jacques Baud never reversed the cause-and-effect relationship regarding the invasion of Ukraine. He merely quotes from an interview with Olekseï Arestovych and explains his thoughts.


Conclusion

It is somewhat astonishing that a career officer in the Swiss army, who is also responsible for training, would write such an easily refutable pamphlet or hate speech against a former colleague, thereby stabbing a colleague who has been weakened by sanctions in the back. The question of whether he did so on behalf of a superior remains unanswered.

This pamphlet is characterized not only by malice, but also by an almost incomprehensible amateurishness. One can only hope that Jacques Baud will not let this primitive and actionable attack go unchallenged, but will hold this person, who does not deserve to wear an officer’s uniform, accountable. It remains to be seen how long this person’s superiors will stand by him. A training officer convicted of defamation would be a first for the Swiss Army.


References:

[i] Ron Synovitz, „Name Your Poison: Exotic Toxins Fell Kremlin Foes”, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, September 18, 2018

[ii] “Man found seriously ill in Maltings, Salisbury, is former Russian spy Sergei Skripal,” www.salisburyjournal.co.uk, March 5, 2018.

[iii] http://www.historycommons.org/entity.jsp?entity=rex_tomb_1

[iv] „Predicted Russian – Ukrainian war in 2019 – Alexey Arestovich”, YouTube, March 18, 2022 (https://youtu.be/1xNHmHpERH8).

[i]. Carole Landry, „The Horror in Bucha“, The New York Times, April 4, 2022 (https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/04/briefing/russia-ukraine-war-briefing-bucha-warcrimes.html)

[ii]. https://t.me/rybar/30599

[iii]. „Pentagon can’t independently confirm atrocities in Ukraine’s Bucha, official says”, Reuters, April 4, 2022 (https://www.reuters.com/world/pentagon-cant-independently-confirm-atrocities-ukraines-bucha-official-says-2022-04-04/?taid=624b43bd3225ef0001288ec4)

[iv]. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Illia_Kyva

[v]. https://t.me/intelslava/24353

[vi]. Jacopo Arbarello, „Guerra in Ucraina, la questione dei collaborazionisti filorussi” (War in Ukraine, the issue of pro-Russian collaborators), Sky TG24, June 7, 2022 (https://tg24.sky.it/mondo/2022/06/06/guerra-russia-ucraina-filorussi)

[i]. https://t.me/vityzeva/52988.

[ii]. „Bucha liberated from Russian invaders – mayor”, ukrinform.net, April 1, 2022 (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3445989-bucha-liberated-from-russian-invaders-mayor.html).

[iii]. Violetta Orlova, „Мер Бучі підтвердив звільнення міста від російських військ”, Unian, April 1, 2022 (https://www.unian.ua/war/bucha-novini-mer-buchi-zayavlyaye-pro-zvilnennya-mista-vid-okupantiv-novini-vtorgnennya-rosiji-v-ukrajinu-11769010.html).

[iv]„Буча после ухода русских военныхQ”, Kedrov Talks/YouTube, April 2, 2022 (https://youtu.be/72TZbAeKPSE).

[v]. Violetta Orlova, „У звільненій Бучі розпочали зачистку території від диверсантів та російських пособників”, Unian, April 2, 2022 (https://www.unian.ua/war/bucha-u-zvilnenomu-misti-rozpochali-zachistku-teritoriji-vid-diversantiv-ta-rosiyskih-posobnikiv-novini-kiyeva-11770498.html).

[vi]. https://youtu.be/Z7yIyNBMpQY.

Europe

Germany expands North Sea military ports and plans new naval base

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With the transformation of the port of Bremerhaven into a high-capacity military hub and the prospective establishment of a fifth German naval base in Emden, the federal government is accelerating the militarisation of the German coastline.

According to German Foreign Policy, the logistics infrastructure in Bremerhaven will be modernised and expanded to unload massive volumes of weapons and ammunition as quickly as possible and transport them onward to potential battlefields in Eastern Europe.

This is set out in a memorandum of understanding signed this week between the Ministry of Defence and municipal authorities in Bremen.

The federal government is providing up to 1.35 billion euros for this purpose, while the federal state of Bremen is contributing more than 212 million euros.

Bremen has the highest poverty risk and the highest child poverty rate of any federal state in the country.

The allocation of hundreds of millions of euros to expand military logistics rather than tackle poverty is also supported by senators from the Left Party (Die Linke) who sit in the state government.

Modernisation intensifies in Bremerhaven

Bremerhaven, Germany’s second-largest port in maritime freight handling behind Hamburg and ahead of Wilhelmshaven, is regarded as ideal for handling military cargo.

The port possesses significant capacity for offloading not only containers but also vehicles, alongside heavy-lift areas capable of handling even heavy military hardware such as main battle tanks. Moreover, because it can be accessed without passing through locks, access is substantially easier and faster.

Finally, it has good links to roads and particularly to railways, which is vital for the rapid transport of weapons and ammunition in the event of a crisis or war.

The port’s particular suitability as a military transshipment hub also stems from its history: it has been used by US forces since the end of the Second World War.

During the Cold War, it served as the central transshipment port in the Federal Republic of Germany and was expanded accordingly.

After 1990, it lost its significance for the US; however, with the escalation of the conflict in Ukraine, the US presence increased once more.

US activity escalated initially under exercises such as Defender Europe 2020 and subsequently from 2022 onwards in the context of the war in Ukraine.

As early as 2023, experts noted that Bremerhaven was operating as “an arms hub just like in the old days”.

Ports optimised for military logistics

The federal government is currently working to further increase the port’s military logistics capacity.

For instance, harbor basins will reportedly be dredged, and road and rail connections will be expanded.

Container facilities will be modernised and adapted to carry heavier loads.

This applies to both cranes and storage areas, with plans also in place to expand these storage areas into new zones.

A spokesperson for the port operating company Bremenports was quoted as saying: “The efficient transport of military hardware is no longer limited to tanks alone.”

Today, weapons and ammunition are also delivered in containers, which would need to be rapidly unloaded and forwarded in the event of war.

To ensure this, plans are also being made to build a new railway swing bridge at the Kaiserhafen. According to reports, the existing bridge is described as a “bottleneck” that slows down the movement of military equipment unnecessarily.

In addition, the heavy focus on military logistics demands costly security measures.

For example, not only will new fencing and privacy screens be erected, but drone defence systems will also be installed and cybersecurity measures implemented.

Left Party senators back armaments

The federal government is allocating approximately 1.35 billion euros through 2031 to optimise military logistics in Bremerhaven and, in conjunction with this, adapt Bremen Airport more effectively to the needs of the Bundeswehr.

According to the Mayor of Bremen, Andreas Bovenschulte, this represents the largest grant the German government has ever provided for a project in the federal state of Bremen.

The state of Bremen is contributing an additional 212 million euros to the “Bremerhaven 2031 Deployment Hub” project.

While large sums are being funnelled from Bremen’s state budget into war preparations in this manner, approximately 25.9% of the state’s population was classified as at risk of poverty in 2024, with 28.6% of all children living in poverty.

This makes Bremen the federal state with the highest poverty risk and the highest rate of child poverty.

Approval for funding military logistics in Bremerhaven with hundreds of millions of euros from the state budget also came from two Bremen senators belonging to the Left Party.

The Left Party’s Senator for Economic Affairs and Ports, Kristina Vogt, praised the “pragmatism” of “improving our infrastructure, which is already used for civilian purposes, for military ends” rather than constructing new facilities.

North Sea joins Baltic Sea militarisation

With the expansion of the Bremerhaven military hub, the militarisation of Germany’s coasts is progressing.

Until now, the focal point of Germany’s naval infrastructure has been the Baltic Sea coast. This was partly because during the Cold War, the naval activities of the Federal Republic of Germany were directed against the Soviet Union and Warsaw Pact states.

Alongside several training facilities, the German Navy primarily operates three major naval bases here, situated in Eckernfoerde, Kiel, and Rostock-Warnemuende, as well as the Naval Command based in Rostock.

In the North Sea, these are complemented by the naval base in Wilhelmshaven and the Naval Air Command at Nordholz near Cuxhaven.

The Naval Air Command is the third major unit of the German Navy, alongside Flotilla 1 based in Kiel and Flotilla 2 based in Wilhelmshaven.

At present, approximately 16,000 soldiers and 1,800 civilian staff from the Bundeswehr are stationed at the Navy’s main bases and various smaller installations.

As in other branches of the armed forces, the German Navy aims to expand its personnel numbers.

Germany’s fifth naval base to be built

In addition to the four existing naval bases and the Bremerhaven military hub, the federal government plans shortly to announce the construction of a fifth naval base, also located on the North Sea.

According to reports, Emden has been selected as the site for the base. Defence Minister Boris Pistorius and Lower Saxony’s State Minister Olaf Lies are scheduled to outline the next steps regarding a potential new naval base there on Monday.

Emden previously hosted a naval base during the Cold War, but the facility was closed in 1997.

According to reports, one argument in Emden’s favour is that it holds the largest unused area among Lower Saxony’s North Sea ports.

Discussions have been ongoing for some time over how to utilise this disused land reasonably, although these debates previously centred on civilian use.

According to the German Navy’s plans, the new naval base will accommodate seven frigates, ten minesweepers, and ten tugs, alongside a four-digit number of Bundeswehr soldiers and civilian personnel.

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European nations unite against US pressure over strategic oil stocks

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Five European countries have agreed to respond with “one voice” to mounting pressure from the US government to release their oil reserves.

Three European officials told Politico that France, Germany, Britain, Italy, Ireland, and the European Commission participated in talks to determine how to respond to pressure from Washington to draw down their oil reserves or face a ban on US diesel exports.

Two of these sources stated that all of these countries were placed under covert pressure by the US to run down their oil reserves or face a ban on diesel exports from the US.

According to the sources, these countries, together with the EU executive, agreed on three points: responding to the pressure with a “coordinated voice”, ensuring that “any decision on releasing stocks is brought to the IEA [International Energy Agency] level”, and seeking to “de-escalate tension in talks with the US”.

The Paris-based IEA coordinates energy policy among wealthy countries and oversaw the release of oil reserves earlier this year following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

One of the sources said the objective was to “de-escalate”:

“Being somewhat firm yet positive in communication… When you are facing a hungry lion, you do not necessarily have to play dirty with it.”

The source added that a wider group of countries, some of which have faced pressure from the Trump administration, would discuss how to react at a meeting scheduled for Friday.

Politico previously reported that US Energy Secretary Chris Wright had demanded the release of oil reserves into the market as an alternative to an export ban on which the EU heavily relies.

As a consequence of the wars in Ukraine and Iran, diesel prices in the US are soaring, placing significant pressure on US President Donald Trump to lower prices ahead of critical midterm elections.

The president is not ruling out an export ban, despite fierce opposition from the US oil industry.

Regarding the export ban, Trump said at an Oval Office event: “I am considering it. I speak to [Energy Secretary] Chris [Wright] and [Interior Secretary] Doug [Burgum] about this often. They think it would help diesel prices, but it could also raise the prices of other products.”

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EU wrestles with domestic content rules for ‘Made in Europe’ push

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The EU wants to leverage its immense public spending power to bolster European industry through a “Made in Europe” initiative.

Deep divisions remain, however, over what should genuinely count as European-made.

According to a report by Politico, the European Parliament and member state governments are trying to establish their positions on the Industrial Accelerator Act (IAA), which forms part of Brussels’ effort to turn the “Made in Europe” slogan into an industrial strategy.

The initiative aims to use tenders and subsidies to create a guaranteed market for products of European origin.

Yet doing so requires answering politically contentious questions, such as how “European” a product must be to qualify, and how much more governments and consumers should be prepared to pay to buy domestic goods.

Disagreements are playing out not only between Parliament and the Council, but also among national governments and even between political allies from different countries.

Unveiled by the European Commission in March, the IAA seeks to channel public expenditure on green technology, energy-intensive industries, and motor vehicles towards European firms, helping them compete with dominant Chinese exporters.

Six months on, it is becoming increasingly clear how difficult it is to turn that objective into workable legislation.

Opposing sides broadly agree on the need to strengthen Europe’s industrial base, accelerate permitting procedures, and reduce strategic dependencies.

However, sharp divisions persist over how extensively the EU should support European manufacturing and how much flexibility national governments should retain.

Politico has identified five issues that will dominate negotiations through 2027.

The first issue is the debate over what qualifies as “Made in Europe”.

Defining EU origin is the most politically sensitive topic in the talks. With public procurement accounting for 15% of the bloc’s GDP—equivalent to roughly 3 trillion euros a year—the sums at stake are enormous.

If the threshold defining how European a product must be is drawn too narrowly, Brussels risks alienating close trading partners and disrupting supply chains.

Conversely, if drawn too broadly, the “Made in Europe” preference risks becoming meaningless.

Parliament is pressing for stricter anti-circumvention rules and demanding that at least 50% of a product’s value be created within the EU.

This condition would also make it harder for goods or components from third countries to be treated as equivalent to EU-origin items.

Lawmakers also aim to impose tighter conditions, including reciprocity, economic security measures, climate commitments, labour standards, and human rights safeguards.

The Council is more open to treating content from countries covered by the WTO Agreement on Government Procurement or relevant free trade agreements as equivalent to EU-origin content under specified conditions, including certain reciprocity principles.

Yet EU member states are still debating their positions and putting forward various conflicting proposals.

Ireland, which holds the Council presidency, plans to submit a fresh compromise proposal featuring the “Made in Europe” designation by mid-October.

Another issue is Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) screening.

Parliament wants a more comprehensive and stringent system to screen foreign investment in strategic sectors.

Underpinning this demand is the concern that, despite the EU spending billions to develop strategic industries, subsidized or otherwise state-backed foreign investors could acquire the very companies and assets the EU helped build.

Lawmakers want to lower the review threshold from the proposed 100 million euro investment figure to 50 million euros, bring affiliates of foreign investors under the rules, and lower the control threshold that triggers mandatory notification.

They also want to give the Commission a stronger role, granting it the power to block investments in critical raw materials when EU funds are involved.

The Council’s position is narrower: it broadly retains the 100 million euro FDI threshold and the 30% control threshold set out in the Commission’s original proposal, while granting national authorities greater flexibility in managing the approval process.

The two institutions are at odds not only over the scope of screening, but also over the institutional balance of power between Brussels and national capitals.

The third issue centres on the scope of tenders and subsidies.

Both sides want public tenders and state support to drive demand for European-made, low-carbon goods.

However, opinions diverge on how broadly the rules should apply.

This is where political goals collide directly with public purse strings. Requiring governments to purchase European-made goods could spur demand for domestic manufacturers, but it could also force taxpayers to pay more when cheaper imported alternatives are available.

Parliament wants various requirements—such as green, social, or “Made in EU” criteria—to cover up to 90% of state aid or subsidy programmes, compared with 45% in the Council text.

It also proposes tighter social and labour conditions, relocation curbs, and stricter verification and enforcement mechanisms.

The Council favours broader exemptions where suitable products are unavailable, excessively costly, or technically unviable.

This posture reflects governmental concerns over higher public spending or project delays linked to reliance on imported components.

The fourth issue is the divergence over sectoral targets.

Parliament generally seeks higher and more granular European-origin content requirements for batteries, solar panels, wind turbines, electrolysers, nuclear technologies, and electric vehicles.

Electric cars illustrate how complex the “Made in Europe” concept can become in practice.

A vehicle assembled within the EU may contain a battery and raw materials sourced through supply chains spanning the globe.

Parliament plans to raise the required EU-origin share for non-battery vehicle components from the 70% proposed by the Commission to 75%.

Requirements governing battery materials, binders, and strategic raw materials would also be introduced.

The Council’s stance, by contrast, is less prescriptive and allows for a more phased implementation.

The dispute is not over whether strategic sectors should receive support, but whether the IAA should impose binding content targets that could push up costs for manufacturers and consumers.

The fifth and final debate concerns the sectors covered by the Industrial Accelerator Act.

The argument centres on whether the IAA should remain a targeted response to strategic dependencies or become a broader vehicle for EU industrial policy.

Parliament wants to expand the legislation to cover areas such as maritime manufacturing, materials recovery, and certain plastic products used in construction.

It also wants sectors such as fertilizers, rolling stock, robotics, and aerospace considered in future reviews.

The Council text focuses more tightly on sectors already identified, including energy-intensive industries, automotive, net-zero technologies, and critical raw materials.

The debate reflects wider friction over how far the EU should extend “Made in Europe” preferences.

When public procurement and subsidies are deployed in certain strategic sectors to shield domestic manufacturing, other industries gain a strong incentive to argue that they too should benefit.

According to a separate report by Politico, Brussels is prepared to grant candidate countries access to its single market, provided they agree to align with the bloc against “hostile states” and industrial competitors.

Under the draft plan, candidate countries would receive unprecedented “gradual integration” into the single market while their accession bids are assessed, including frictionless trade and access to research programmes.

An assessment of “pre-enlargement” benefits to be offered to candidate nations states: “The single market is the primary driver of economic convergence.”

The draft states:

“Earlier integration will create opportunities for businesses across the Union, strengthen European value chains, and reduce strategic dependencies. The Commission will identify sectors where verified regulatory alignment and enforcement capacity allow for deeper participation in research, innovation, and industrial cooperation, as well as broader market access. Priority should be given to opportunities that advance accession preparations and address shared economic and strategic needs.”

Overseen by Alexandre Adam, top adviser to Ursula von der Leyen and former aide to French President Emmanuel Macron, the review would fundamentally transform the EU’s approach to neighbouring countries.

At present, almost all the economic advantages of closer cooperation remain reserved for member states.

No new country has joined the EU since Croatia’s accession in 2013.

As part of Adam’s package of measures, Ukraine, Moldova, Albania, and Montenegro are set to receive “roadmaps” designed to accelerate their accession process in the coming years.

For other nations, including North Macedonia, Kosovo, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia, and Türkiye, the process continues to drag on amid mounting fears that they could drift away from the EU or draw closer to Russia or China.

Under the Commission’s blueprint, economic benefits extended to candidate countries would depend on their backing of EU foreign policy goals.

Single market access would hinge on candidate states not sharing key technologies with hostile governments and commercial rivals.

The review document notes:

“As industrial and market integration deepens, participation in sensitive sectors must go hand in hand with cooperation on investment screening, export controls, sanctions enforcement, and the protection of sensitive technologies. Access assessments must consider strategic alignment, critical dependencies, and the capacity to manage risks to infrastructure and supply chains. Where these conditions are not met, the scope of participation should be recalibrated under the relevant regulatory framework.”

Areas being considered for closer cooperation include semiconductors, quantum technologies, biotechnology, artificial intelligence, and space.

According to the review, full EU membership must remain the ultimate goal for candidate countries.

“Yet accession takes time: candidate countries must complete a rigorous, merit-based process and deliver comprehensive, enduring reforms,” the report notes. “This period must be fully exploited strategically, both to prepare the Union for a wider membership and to deepen gradual integration in areas of mutual interest.”

The benefits gained, however, will be contingent on countries fulfilling their obligations:

“Where these commitments are not honoured, integration must be reversible. The accession process should be suspended or rolled back where deemed necessary.”

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