Europe
Riots in France: Consequences and possibilities
French President Emmanuel Macron met with 220 elected mayors earlier this week. Some mayors, especially those on the right, felt that Paris had failed to quell the protests that erupted after the killing of Nahel, a 17-year-old Algerian teenager, by the police. According to the Interior Ministry, a total of 99 town halls were attacked during the demonstrations. David Lisnard, President of the Association of French Mayors (AMF), used the term ‘urban riot’ and said that this would happen again in the years to come, adding: “That requires immediate action to restore order, of course, and regal authority, which is what I’m telling you, and then, at the same time, a profound effort, totally different from what has been done for the last thirty years.”
It was also at this meeting that Macron floated the idea of restricting social media. “When things get out of hand, it may be necessary to regulate or cut off access [to social media],” the French president said. The Interior Ministry was forced to call the widespread rumors that France would cut the internet ‘fake news’, arguing that it was ‘illegal’ in France. But the genie was clearly out of the bottle. Starting his political career as a Trotskyist in the 1970s, then joined the Socialist Party for a while, and was eventually elected mayor of Béziers in 2014 with the support of the National Front, which was once led by Jean-Marie Le Pen, and supported Marine Le Pen in the 2022 presidential elections, Robert Ménard was publicizing Macron’s remarks at the meeting: The President had proposed cutting off access to social media platforms such as Snapchat, TikTok and Instagram.
Is the ‘escalating violence’ a new phenomenon?
The French state’s solution to the attacks on town halls and some mayors during the riots is to extend the shield of central government to local authorities. Dominique Faure, the minister responsible for local and regional government, announced that the government will allocate 5 million euros to better protect local elected officials, especially mayors. In an interview with Le Monde, Faure outlined his plan to support local elected officials, saying twelve measures would be taken, including funding for better physical and legal protections, as well as psychological support for mayors.
These measures include strengthening the relationship between local authorities and prosecutors, and increasing legal and financial protection for local authorities. A law will be presented to the French parliament in the fall that will create an ‘aggravated’ charge for those found guilty of harassing local elected officials and allow judges to give them harsher sentences, the minister added.
The home of Vincent Jeanbrun, mayor of the Paris suburb of L’Häy-les-Roses, was targeted during the demonstrations. This is one of the main justifications for increasing centralized control over local authorities. But the ‘increased violence’ predates the Nahel rebellion. The mayor of Saint-Brevin-les-Pins, Yannick Morez, ended his term early after his house was set on fire. Morez, who became the target of right-wing protests over a planned refugee center in his town, resigned on May 9. The reason for his resignation was the fire in front of his house by right-wing groups organizing a protest. In his resignation letter, Morez pointed out that he made this decision especially because of the burning of his house and the lack of state support.
Mainstreaming right, mainstream leaning to right
This is why the use of both justified and blind violence in the recent wave of riots led by young people of immigrant origin by the French right, particularly the National Rally, is far from being ‘sincere’. Violence in France did not start on June 28 and with migrants, and it will not be its only source in the future. For example, shortly before Nahel’s murder, on June 14, 19-year-old Guinean migrant Alhoussein Camara was shot dead in the chest by police officers in the southwestern French town of Angoulême on his way to work. Camara’s lawyers wonder why the outcry over Nahel has not been directed against the Guinean migrant. Why there was silence on the murder of this young warehouse worker does not matter now. What matters is that the treatment of African migrants has not changed much, despite the existence of examples of non-counter-violence.
However, in France and Europe in general, the mainstreaming of the ‘populist’ backlash against the austerity measures introduced in the wake of the Eurozone crisis has entered a new phase. The reverse is also true; in the last decade, the political spectrum known as the ‘center’ in Europe has been rapidly moving towards elements to its right. With the Macron administration being accused by Marine Le Pen and her party of ‘failing to prevent a handful of thugs’, and the parliamentary left, particularly the French Communist Party (PCF), ‘distancing itself from violence’ and at times even confronting it, the National Rally is increasingly coming to the fore as the representative of ‘law and order’.
The migrant issue is of course an important part of this picture, but only a part. Other elements of the picture include the fact that France, as an imperialist power in decline and unable to stop its decline, is unable to keep up with its economic rival Germany. French capital feels that it has become too inefficient in the face of its German ‘rival’; it still finds labor costs too high; its official weekly working hours are almost the lowest in the EU; it is struggling to find the skilled labor needed for its ‘technological breakthrough’ (it still hasn’t found it); and militant trade unionism of one dimension or another continues to plague it.
A report published in 2019 by the National Productivity Council summarizes the fascic circle in which the French system finds itself. It notes that there is a huge skills gap among school leavers, with high performers well above the European average, but low performers (overwhelmingly from less affluent families) performing significantly worse than the EU and OECD averages. Another striking data point is that labor productivity, which was actually neck and neck with Germany for a long time, started to fall in the 1990s. According to the report, “the skills of the French labor force are below the OECD average and show no sign of improving.”
Issues such as pension reform, the immigration problem and the rise of the right must be seen in the context of this ‘French decline’. While Germany picks and chooses ‘skilled migrant labor’, the French right-wing sees their country as ‘rubbish’. It is because of these needs that Le Pen’s party does not want to abolish immigration altogether, but to reduce its annual quota. This includes denying dual citizenship to those living in former French colonies. Labor migration from Africa to France is not feasible.
In this context, the National Rally’s demands to increase the budget of the Ministry of Justice, to build new prisons, to protect the ‘right of self-defense’ of the police, and to expand the powers of the police to wiretap and monitor internet communications point to a desire for a reorganization that is not limited to the immigration issue. The legal equivalent of this is likely to be ‘colonial law’ with the old-fashioned native-colonial distinction.
New mercantilism’s march to power
The main issue here is the international situation. In France, the chances are improving for the National Rally, which stands out as the greatest defender of ‘law and order’. This must be accompanied by a convincing economic program.
This program is rising in the United States under the name of ‘Bidenomics’. The re-industrialization of France, the increase in import tariffs to protect French producers, interest rate cuts for SMEs, and lower taxes, all of which are included in the National Rally’s program, indicate that the new mercantilist idea, which has increased its prestige, has matured enough to fall from the tree in France. Considering that more than 60 percent of the country’s trade comes from within the EU, a simple ‘autarkic’ approach will not work, and Le Pen has no such plan beyond ‘protectionism’. In this context, we should point out that Macron’s claim of ‘strategic autonomy of Europe’, which is questionable how much he has thought about it, clears the stones in front of the National Rally, which proposes a ‘European National Federation’.
Moreover, we should remind that the National Rally is not alone in this. Throughout the uprisings, officials of Les Républicains (LR), the party founded by Nicolas Sarkozy, pushed the ethno-nationalist throttle. For example, Bruno Retailleau, leader of LR’s Senate faction, told Franceinfo radio on July 5: “[The rioters] are French, of course, but they are French because of their identity. Unfortunately, in the second, third generation, there is a regression towards ethnicity,” Bruno Retailleau, leader of the Senate group, told Franceinfo radio on July 2. The ‘center’ right is allegedly doing this to avoid losing voters to Le Pen. But this is an overly simplistic conclusion. The right-wingization of the mainstream or the ‘center’ paves the way for the right.
Indeed, within days of describing the rebels as ‘barbarians’, LR President Eric Ciotti proposed security and anti-immigration measures. His catalog of measures bore a striking resemblance to Le Pen’s: Sharply increasing prison capacity, lowering the age of criminal responsibility to 16, abolishing benefits for the parents of criminals and stripping criminals with dual nationality of their French citizenship.
The ‘Melonization’ of Le Pen
What remains is the ‘Melonization’ of Le Pen. Clearly, this requires a Europe-wide fiction. The 2024 European Parliament elections are crucial in this regard. Whether the contacts between the Italian Meloni’s European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) and Le Pen’s Identity and Democracy (ID) will result in an alliance will give an idea of the course of events. The consequences of the ‘center’ right European People’s Party (EPP) closing the door to ID, forced by the German Christian Democrats, will also become clear.
We have to recognize that the French revolt and its implications, especially for Germany, are critical for the future of the right in Europe. The economic politics of the US and the prospect of economic convergence between Democrats and Republicans will fuel the rise of the new mercantilist-protectionist right in Europe. The revolt of the plebs without a program could open the gates of hell.
Europe
German officials urge fighter jet alliance with Sweden and Spain
German Defence Ministry officials have advised Berlin to form a new fighter jet partnership with Sweden and Spain rather than join an existing UK-led consortium.
Internal ministry assessment notes obtained by Politico state that a trilateral arrangement among Germany, Sweden, and Spain represents a “more advantageous and promising” approach than joining the Global Combat Air Programme (GCAP) run by the UK, Italy, and Japan.
The proposal outlined in the document does not yet represent a final government decision, nor does it contain any indication that German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius has approved the recommendation.
The advice was drafted after Germany’s flagship project with France to build a next-generation fighter jet collapsed in June following years of industrial infighting.
Initiated in 2017 and later joined by Spain, the Future Combat Air System (FCAS) was conceived as a showcase initiative for European defence cooperation. The partnership aimed to develop an aircraft to replace Germany’s Eurofighter fleet starting in 2040.
However, the initiative foundered on disputes over operational control and workshare between France-based Dassault and Germany-based Airbus Defence and Space. Following unsuccessful rescue attempts at the political level, Berlin withdrew from the joint fighter project this year.
UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham raised the prospect of Germany joining GCAP during an 8 October meeting in Berlin with Friedrich Merz. The two leaders agreed that officials should continue discussions.
For Berlin, the choice carries implications that reach far beyond which model its air force will fly. The decision will determine who controls future military technology, which countries secure production contracts, and whether a new European partnership can avoid the frictions that dismantled FCAS.
Ministry assessment keeps distance from UK-partnered GCAP project
The ministry assessment listed several reservations regarding the GCAP project. The report argued that the existing programme focuses on operations beyond Germany’s capability requirements, whereas Berlin needs an aircraft better suited for missions over continental Europe.
The document also noted that German manufacturers would struggle to secure a significant share of development and production work within an already established partnership.
Invoking past experiences with the Eurofighter programme, which was developed in the 1990s and entered service in the early 2000s, the document took direct aim at British defence contractor BAE Systems.
The German Defence Ministry assessment accused BAE Systems of prioritizing exports over the development interests of Germany and Italy, warning that British dominance would prove incompatible with an equal partnership.
By contrast, the document stated that the military requirements of Germany, Sweden, and Spain align closely and that their starting positions are well balanced.
The assessment proposed an industrial partnership between aerospace giant Airbus and Sweden’s Saab, while recommending that the Saab-manufactured Gripen E fighter jet serve as a technological stepping stone until the new aircraft is developed.
The German Defence Ministry declined to comment on the matter. A separate ministry note, however, recorded British efforts to integrate Germany into GCAP as an observer or participant, asking German officials to examine potential industrial roles and military requirements.
An Airbus spokesperson said the company was “generally open to cooperation”, provided that German and Spanish industry secured a “substantial and equal role” across development, production, and operational phases.
“Purely political decisions without an industrial foundation remain insufficient,” the spokesperson said, urging authorities in Berlin and Madrid to clarify the path forward swiftly.
In an interview published in Handelsblatt on Monday, Airbus defence chief Michael Schollhorn pointed to ties with Saab, noting that the two companies have always worked well together.
A Saab spokesperson also indicated that the company is receptive to broad defence cooperation, including in fighter aircraft.
Emphasizing that large-scale collaborative projects are handled at the political level and that participation decisions rest with the respective governments, the spokesperson said: “All questions regarding potential Swedish participation should be directed to the Swedish government. Saab stands ready, as always, to support Sweden’s future fighter aircraft requirements.”
Europe
EU reopens debate on naming envoy for Ukraine talks with Putin
The European Union has returned to the idea of appointing an envoy to hold talks on Ukraine with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
According to sources familiar with the matter who spoke to Politico, this search gained fresh momentum following a visit to Russia by Steve Witkoff, the US special envoy.
During his trip, Witkoff proposed to Putin that Russia, the US, and Ukraine hold trilateral talks.
European countries, meanwhile, fear that Washington could accept terms unfavourable to Kyiv in negotiations that exclude them.
Sources speaking to Politico said the names being discussed for the envoy role include European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, European Council President António Costa, and EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Kaja Kallas.
Some European diplomats believe Finnish President Alexander Stubb may be the most suitable candidate for the post.
Stubb’s good relations with Trump and Finland’s experience in dealing with Russia are cited among the factors setting him apart.
An unnamed EU diplomat described Stubb as the only European politician so far to have demonstrated senior-level leadership.
Another group of diplomats argues that Costa should lead the talks. European leaders asked Costa during last week’s EU summit in Brussels whether the time had come to speak with Putin.
Politico’s source recounted that exchange: “Costa said no, saying he would not speak to Putin right now. But if we want to play a role in the negotiations, Costa still needs to initiate dialogue with Putin.”
According to an assessment by another source, the European Council president could serve as a more neutral mediator than von der Leyen or Kallas, who are seen as overly focused on supporting Ukraine.
“Three or four people cannot go there with each of us speaking on behalf of the European Union,” one of the sources told the publication. “Ultimately, the choice of who represents the EU must be based on maximum efficiency, not on a personal power struggle or someone’s narcissistic ambitions.”
Politico previously reported in January that the EU was considering appointing a special representative for Ukraine negotiations. At the time, the initiative drew support from several European leaders, including French President Emmanuel Macron and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni.
Putin said he was ready to negotiate with European countries, but asserted that Europe had “no peace agenda” and stood “on the side of war”.
The Russian leader also named former German chancellor Gerhard Schröder as Moscow’s preferred negotiator from Europe.
Kallas ruled out such an appointment, noting that Schröder was “a lobbyist for Russian state companies” and would sit “on both sides of the negotiating table”.
Stubb details obstacles to talks and Oslo diplomatic drive
Finnish President Alexander Stubb said the principal obstacle to ending the war between Russia and Ukraine was the territorial issue.
Stubb took part in talks in Oslo with US envoy Steve Witkoff, who subsequently travelled to Saint Petersburg to meet Vladimir Putin.
As reported by the newspaper Helsingin Sanomat, Stubb stated that advancing the peace process required either bilateral talks between Russia and Ukraine or trilateral negotiations involving the US.
The Finnish president listed the other major items to be addressed within a settlement as US security guarantees for Ukraine and the construction of a new European security architecture after the war ends.
Without stating it outright, Stubb implied that the core issue within this framework was Ukraine’s NATO membership. The Finnish leader pointed to monitoring the ceasefire, establishing the line of contact, ensuring energy and food security, and exchanging prisoners as practical tasks.
Stubb also detailed the talks held in Oslo on 20 October, which included Witkoff, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, and Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre.
The discussions, which spanned approximately eight hours across various formats, had three objectives: to lower tensions in public discourse, to convey European and Ukrainian proposals to the US envoy before his visit to Russia, and to determine the next steps toward a peaceful settlement. Stubb announced that these goals had been achieved.
Moscow ready to resume trilateral talks in November
Witkoff met Putin in Saint Petersburg on Wednesday.
Following the meeting, Russian presidential aide Yuriy Ushakov announced that Moscow was prepared to resume trilateral negotiations with the US and Ukraine during the first half of November.
Ushakov also said that the EU and NATO had begun to “take a more serious approach” to Kremlin proposals on Ukraine, adding that “matters” were moving toward an end to the conflict.
Witkoff described the meeting as “constructive”.
Sources told Bloomberg in September that Putin continued to insist the Donetsk region must come fully under Russian control, expressing confidence that the territory would be captured within the next six months.
Putin previously set conditions for ending the war, demanding that Ukraine abandon plans to join NATO, maintain a neutral and non-nuclear status, and that anti-Russian sanctions be lifted.
Europe
Trump midterms calculus halts Israeli strike plan against Iran
A comprehensive military operation planned by the Israeli military for 10 October did not take place because US President Donald Trump chose to avoid a broad conflict before the 3 November congressional midterm elections.
Preparations had been made on the orders of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for an aerial bombardment meant to last several days, according to a report by the Financial Times citing sources familiar with the matter.
The list of targets included nuclear facilities and locations associated with the Iranian leadership, along with power stations and other civilian infrastructure sites.
The planned strikes were projected to exceed the joint operation launched by the US and Israel in February in terms of intensity.
White House Deputy Press Secretary Anna Kelly told the newspaper: “The United States is not going to strike Iran at any point before the midterms.”
Kelly argued that the administration in Tehran was in distress both economically and militarily, adding that the blockade imposed on Iranian ports and US efforts to secure oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz were producing results.
Speaking to the newspaper, one source addressed the possibility of strikes resuming in the coming weeks, saying: “There’s either going to be a deal or a strike.”
The same source reported that Washington aims for a comprehensive settlement that resolves the conflict over both the Strait of Hormuz and the nuclear programme, although it remained unclear whether the US would have participated directly in the cancelled operation.
Another source said the preparations for the operation might have served as leverage to pressure Tehran in negotiations, adding that the final decision on any new military step rests with the US president.
Hegseth reviews updated target list in Israel
An Israeli official said US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth visited Israel on 19 October to meet with Netanyahu and senior representatives.
Another source stated that the Israeli side presented an updated target list to its American counterparts, compiled with fresh intelligence and incorporating civilian infrastructure sites that had not been struck earlier this year.
The Pentagon did not respond to questions regarding the meetings, while Netanyahu’s office and the Israeli military declined to comment.
Despite the postponement of the operation, Trump and Netanyahu continued to issue military warnings to Iran in public.
In a video released on 19 October, Netanyahu addressed Trump, saying: “Donald, you said we need to finish this, and we will finish it together.” Speaking on speakerphone, Trump responded: “You’re a great warrior, and we’re going to prove it very soon.”
These engagements between the leaders coincide with critical election cycles in both countries.
Parliamentary elections in Israel are scheduled for 27 October, one week before the vote in the US.
Most public opinion polls in the country show the opposition bloc holding a narrow lead over Netanyahu’s coalition, though neither side commands a clear majority.
Axios, a US-based news outlet, previously reported that the Pentagon instructed military planners to finalize strike plans against Iran, though the directive specified no date and Trump had not reached a final decision.
On 15 October, CNN reported on plans to use the GBU-43/B munition, known as the “mother of all bombs”, against Iranian nuclear facilities, with US officials who spoke to the broadcaster expressing scepticism about the weapon’s ability to destroy deep bunkers.
While Tehran announced that it remains open to a diplomatic solution, it declared that any potential operation would draw a fierce response.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stressed that if its adversaries chose military conflict, the response would be “much harsher than before”.
Following the joint operation launched by the US and Israel on 28 February, Iran retaliated by striking targets across the region and restricting maritime passage through the Strait of Hormuz.
Although the parties reached an agreement in June covering a ceasefire and negotiations to lift the blockade in the strait, reciprocal strikes between the US and Iran have not ceased.
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