Europe
Riots in France: Consequences and possibilities
French President Emmanuel Macron met with 220 elected mayors earlier this week. Some mayors, especially those on the right, felt that Paris had failed to quell the protests that erupted after the killing of Nahel, a 17-year-old Algerian teenager, by the police. According to the Interior Ministry, a total of 99 town halls were attacked during the demonstrations. David Lisnard, President of the Association of French Mayors (AMF), used the term ‘urban riot’ and said that this would happen again in the years to come, adding: “That requires immediate action to restore order, of course, and regal authority, which is what I’m telling you, and then, at the same time, a profound effort, totally different from what has been done for the last thirty years.”
It was also at this meeting that Macron floated the idea of restricting social media. “When things get out of hand, it may be necessary to regulate or cut off access [to social media],” the French president said. The Interior Ministry was forced to call the widespread rumors that France would cut the internet ‘fake news’, arguing that it was ‘illegal’ in France. But the genie was clearly out of the bottle. Starting his political career as a Trotskyist in the 1970s, then joined the Socialist Party for a while, and was eventually elected mayor of Béziers in 2014 with the support of the National Front, which was once led by Jean-Marie Le Pen, and supported Marine Le Pen in the 2022 presidential elections, Robert Ménard was publicizing Macron’s remarks at the meeting: The President had proposed cutting off access to social media platforms such as Snapchat, TikTok and Instagram.
Is the ‘escalating violence’ a new phenomenon?
The French state’s solution to the attacks on town halls and some mayors during the riots is to extend the shield of central government to local authorities. Dominique Faure, the minister responsible for local and regional government, announced that the government will allocate 5 million euros to better protect local elected officials, especially mayors. In an interview with Le Monde, Faure outlined his plan to support local elected officials, saying twelve measures would be taken, including funding for better physical and legal protections, as well as psychological support for mayors.
These measures include strengthening the relationship between local authorities and prosecutors, and increasing legal and financial protection for local authorities. A law will be presented to the French parliament in the fall that will create an ‘aggravated’ charge for those found guilty of harassing local elected officials and allow judges to give them harsher sentences, the minister added.
The home of Vincent Jeanbrun, mayor of the Paris suburb of L’Häy-les-Roses, was targeted during the demonstrations. This is one of the main justifications for increasing centralized control over local authorities. But the ‘increased violence’ predates the Nahel rebellion. The mayor of Saint-Brevin-les-Pins, Yannick Morez, ended his term early after his house was set on fire. Morez, who became the target of right-wing protests over a planned refugee center in his town, resigned on May 9. The reason for his resignation was the fire in front of his house by right-wing groups organizing a protest. In his resignation letter, Morez pointed out that he made this decision especially because of the burning of his house and the lack of state support.
Mainstreaming right, mainstream leaning to right
This is why the use of both justified and blind violence in the recent wave of riots led by young people of immigrant origin by the French right, particularly the National Rally, is far from being ‘sincere’. Violence in France did not start on June 28 and with migrants, and it will not be its only source in the future. For example, shortly before Nahel’s murder, on June 14, 19-year-old Guinean migrant Alhoussein Camara was shot dead in the chest by police officers in the southwestern French town of Angoulême on his way to work. Camara’s lawyers wonder why the outcry over Nahel has not been directed against the Guinean migrant. Why there was silence on the murder of this young warehouse worker does not matter now. What matters is that the treatment of African migrants has not changed much, despite the existence of examples of non-counter-violence.
However, in France and Europe in general, the mainstreaming of the ‘populist’ backlash against the austerity measures introduced in the wake of the Eurozone crisis has entered a new phase. The reverse is also true; in the last decade, the political spectrum known as the ‘center’ in Europe has been rapidly moving towards elements to its right. With the Macron administration being accused by Marine Le Pen and her party of ‘failing to prevent a handful of thugs’, and the parliamentary left, particularly the French Communist Party (PCF), ‘distancing itself from violence’ and at times even confronting it, the National Rally is increasingly coming to the fore as the representative of ‘law and order’.
The migrant issue is of course an important part of this picture, but only a part. Other elements of the picture include the fact that France, as an imperialist power in decline and unable to stop its decline, is unable to keep up with its economic rival Germany. French capital feels that it has become too inefficient in the face of its German ‘rival’; it still finds labor costs too high; its official weekly working hours are almost the lowest in the EU; it is struggling to find the skilled labor needed for its ‘technological breakthrough’ (it still hasn’t found it); and militant trade unionism of one dimension or another continues to plague it.
A report published in 2019 by the National Productivity Council summarizes the fascic circle in which the French system finds itself. It notes that there is a huge skills gap among school leavers, with high performers well above the European average, but low performers (overwhelmingly from less affluent families) performing significantly worse than the EU and OECD averages. Another striking data point is that labor productivity, which was actually neck and neck with Germany for a long time, started to fall in the 1990s. According to the report, “the skills of the French labor force are below the OECD average and show no sign of improving.”
Issues such as pension reform, the immigration problem and the rise of the right must be seen in the context of this ‘French decline’. While Germany picks and chooses ‘skilled migrant labor’, the French right-wing sees their country as ‘rubbish’. It is because of these needs that Le Pen’s party does not want to abolish immigration altogether, but to reduce its annual quota. This includes denying dual citizenship to those living in former French colonies. Labor migration from Africa to France is not feasible.
In this context, the National Rally’s demands to increase the budget of the Ministry of Justice, to build new prisons, to protect the ‘right of self-defense’ of the police, and to expand the powers of the police to wiretap and monitor internet communications point to a desire for a reorganization that is not limited to the immigration issue. The legal equivalent of this is likely to be ‘colonial law’ with the old-fashioned native-colonial distinction.
New mercantilism’s march to power
The main issue here is the international situation. In France, the chances are improving for the National Rally, which stands out as the greatest defender of ‘law and order’. This must be accompanied by a convincing economic program.
This program is rising in the United States under the name of ‘Bidenomics’. The re-industrialization of France, the increase in import tariffs to protect French producers, interest rate cuts for SMEs, and lower taxes, all of which are included in the National Rally’s program, indicate that the new mercantilist idea, which has increased its prestige, has matured enough to fall from the tree in France. Considering that more than 60 percent of the country’s trade comes from within the EU, a simple ‘autarkic’ approach will not work, and Le Pen has no such plan beyond ‘protectionism’. In this context, we should point out that Macron’s claim of ‘strategic autonomy of Europe’, which is questionable how much he has thought about it, clears the stones in front of the National Rally, which proposes a ‘European National Federation’.
Moreover, we should remind that the National Rally is not alone in this. Throughout the uprisings, officials of Les Républicains (LR), the party founded by Nicolas Sarkozy, pushed the ethno-nationalist throttle. For example, Bruno Retailleau, leader of LR’s Senate faction, told Franceinfo radio on July 5: “[The rioters] are French, of course, but they are French because of their identity. Unfortunately, in the second, third generation, there is a regression towards ethnicity,” Bruno Retailleau, leader of the Senate group, told Franceinfo radio on July 2. The ‘center’ right is allegedly doing this to avoid losing voters to Le Pen. But this is an overly simplistic conclusion. The right-wingization of the mainstream or the ‘center’ paves the way for the right.
Indeed, within days of describing the rebels as ‘barbarians’, LR President Eric Ciotti proposed security and anti-immigration measures. His catalog of measures bore a striking resemblance to Le Pen’s: Sharply increasing prison capacity, lowering the age of criminal responsibility to 16, abolishing benefits for the parents of criminals and stripping criminals with dual nationality of their French citizenship.
The ‘Melonization’ of Le Pen
What remains is the ‘Melonization’ of Le Pen. Clearly, this requires a Europe-wide fiction. The 2024 European Parliament elections are crucial in this regard. Whether the contacts between the Italian Meloni’s European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) and Le Pen’s Identity and Democracy (ID) will result in an alliance will give an idea of the course of events. The consequences of the ‘center’ right European People’s Party (EPP) closing the door to ID, forced by the German Christian Democrats, will also become clear.
We have to recognize that the French revolt and its implications, especially for Germany, are critical for the future of the right in Europe. The economic politics of the US and the prospect of economic convergence between Democrats and Republicans will fuel the rise of the new mercantilist-protectionist right in Europe. The revolt of the plebs without a program could open the gates of hell.
Europe
Fico accuses Merz of blackmail over threat to veto EU budget
Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico has hit back after German Chancellor Friedrich Merz threatened to veto the EU budget unless funding for Ukraine is secured.
Merz said he would block the EU’s seven-year budget if no agreement is reached on financial assistance for Ukraine.
The chancellor’s intervention has angered Central European leaders who are net beneficiaries of EU funds but do not want to take part in the next round of funding to support Ukraine’s war effort.
“What the chancellor is doing is typical blackmail, and I will not bow to it,” Fico told reporters in Bratislava.
Fico spoke alongside his Czech counterpart, Andrej Babiš, whose government has refused to participate in a future loan to Ukraine.
“I do not know why he said this,” Babiš said, referring to Merz’s stance.
Merz wants EU leaders to discuss Ukraine’s financing needs at a summit in Dublin on Friday.
In a letter to European Council President António Costa, who will chair the meeting, obtained by The Guardian, Merz wrote:
“We must maintain our support for Ukraine in its struggle to defend itself. This is our shared vital interest. Yet bilateral aid provided to Ukraine is distributed unevenly, with the burden shouldered mostly by only a few member states.”
The EU agreed last year to provide a €90 billion loan to Ukraine, intended to cover two-thirds of its military and civilian spending for 2026 and 2027.
Since then, however, Russia’s relentless bombardment has placed a heavier financial burden on Kyiv, prompting President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to ask for €70 billion to plug the budget deficit.
The EU has endorsed Zelenskyy’s figures and pledged to find €45 billion. Ukraine’s other allies, such as Britain and Canada, are expected to cover the rest.
Last year, Merz launched an initiative to tap €210 billion in frozen Russian state assets held in the EU, but the plan fell through due to opposition led by Belgium, which holds most of the funds in Brussels.
The €90 billion loan was the backup plan. Having opted out of that loan, Hungary, Slovakia, and Czechia indicated that they would not take part in the next round either.
Bulgaria joined these three member states following the election of Prime Minister Rumen Radev last April.
The question of funding for Ukraine is now spilling over into the fraught negotiations on the 2028-34 EU budget.
Germany, the largest net contributor, wants substantial cuts to the proposed budget and opposes the EU providing generous funding to member states that refuse to contribute to Ukraine’s financial needs.
Merz states in his letter that a “collective commitment without exceptions” is a “fundamental prerequisite” for closing Ukraine’s financing gap and for “discussing other matters, particularly those with financial implications.”
He also notes that, in the context of the EU’s next seven-year budget, known as the Multiannual Financial Framework, all member states must contribute to a “robust” financial perspective for Ukraine from 2028 onwards.
A German government official said:
“For the Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF) to be successfully concluded, it is vital that all EU member states provide financial support to Ukraine.”
Berlin is also aiming to shift decision-making on funding for Ukraine from unanimity to qualified majority voting, in an effort to prevent a single government from blocking EU decisions.
The letter reflects mounting frustration among the EU’s northern member states, Ukraine’s most generous backers, over lower contributions from other EU countries in Central and Southern Europe.
The task of brokering an agreement on the budget falls to Costa, the former Portuguese prime minister.
Costa wants a deal by the end of the year, ahead of elections in France, Poland, and Italy in 2027 that could complicate the process.
A spokesperson for Costa confirmed receipt of the letter without elaborating on details. “President Costa will dedicate time to the Ukraine issue at the informal European Council meeting in Dublin this week,” the spokesperson said, adding that funding for Ukraine would be addressed at a dedicated summit on the EU budget scheduled for 26-27 November.
Europe
EU expects next Israeli government to adopt less aggressive posture
The EU expects the next Israeli government to mend its “difficult relationship” with Brussels and adopt a more constructive approach toward Gaza and illegal settlements.
Israeli President Isaac Herzog tasked Gadi Eisenkot, the leader of the anti-Netanyahu bloc, on Sunday with forming a government.
Eisenkot stated that the country faces a “catastrophic diplomatic crisis” as traditional allies begin to reassess their relations with Israel.
Speaking to Rapporteur, several European diplomats stationed in Tel Aviv said they expect ties to get back on track.
“Whatever government comes in, we can try to revitalize relations because Israel is clearly a very important partner,” one European diplomat said, adding that Brussels expects the next administration to be “less aggressive”.
The diplomat noted that relations with Europe are currently “not very good”.
Israel cut off communication with Kaja Kallas, the EU high representative for foreign affairs and security policy, after Rapporteur revealed in June that she had compared Israel to apartheid-era South Africa during a visit to Mexico.
The diplomat stated that this decision, taken ahead of elections, was political in nature. A second European diplomat based in Brussels explained that the announcement came only a few days before an official visit by Dubravka Šuica, the European commissioner for the Mediterranean.
“This could have been interpreted as a tactic to divide Europe, but Israel had asked Kallas to deny the report; she did not do so,” the second diplomat said.
Brussels has repeatedly voiced its frustration with Israel over the humanitarian crisis in Gaza and the expansion of West Bank settlements.
However, EU governments blocked almost all sanctions proposed by the European Commission.
A third diplomat said opposition parties would “almost certainly take the issue more seriously” when it comes to tackling violence by West Bank settlers:
“We see Palestinians being expelled from their homes and new illegal settlements being built in the West Bank. There is a reluctance on the part of the current government to address this issue, which causes problems in our relations.”
The new government is expected to ease pressure on Palestinians and halt construction of the E1 settlement project, a controversial plan to build settler housing in the West Bank east of Jerusalem.
“They will probably try to deal with the problem of extremist settlers in the West Bank,” the diplomat added.
On Gaza, the diplomat described the situation as “a complete nightmare”, with two million Palestinians crowded into an area that accounts for roughly 35% of the territory.
“There are not enough tents for the winter, and not enough vaccines are reaching the area despite an increase in diseases,” the diplomat said.
The European official argued that Donald Trump’s peace plan met all the conditions for Europe. Although the EU had much to offer, neither the US nor Israel appeared interested in EU involvement in the process.
“We are currently training Palestinian police in the West Bank, and if permitted, we could do the same in Gaza,” the diplomat said.
The diplomat disclosed that Israel had agreed with Šuica that Europe would finance two projects aimed at improving sewage and water infrastructure in Gaza, continuing:
“However, none of these projects has started yet because there is a serious problem with dual-use goods. Getting materials into Gaza is very difficult because the Israelis say they could be misused if they fall into the wrong hands of Hamas.”
Israel insists that Hamas must be disarmed before subsequent phases of Trump’s plan can proceed.
With disarmament unlikely to happen in the near term, the EU argues that certain measures can be carried out in parallel.
“We can begin rebuilding sanitation systems in Gaza. We can start building desalination plants. We can begin providing energy and water to Gaza,” one diplomat said.
While Brussels hopes for progress on Gaza and the West Bank, it maintains that expectations regarding the establishment of a Palestinian state need to be “managed”.
The EU continues to advocate a two-state solution, yet most leading Jewish parties oppose the creation of a Palestinian state.
The diplomat noted that the next Israeli government will likely have “a very slim majority and not much room for manoeuvre”.
There is also a “major misunderstanding” between the EU and Israel that must be addressed. According to the diplomat, Europeans fail to recognize the “psychological impact” of 7 October on Israelis.
“This event changed the country and made the two-state solution even more distant than before,” the diplomat said.
In return, some Israeli politicians believe Europe has betrayed Israel despite what they view as a fight against “Islamist terrorism”.
“Their argument is that European politicians are somewhat afraid of the Muslim population in Europe,” the European diplomat said.
Europe strongly opposes Iran and the possibility of Tehran acquiring nuclear weapons, imposing sanctions in response.
However, the diplomat argued that the EU would not participate in a war because it lacks a common army:
“We are a diplomatic and economic power, which is why we resort to sanctions and diplomacy. The expectation that we would take part in a military operation is unrealistic.”
Europe
Germany threatens EU budget veto over long-term Ukraine aid
Germany has threatened to veto the European Union’s joint budget for the 2028-2034 period, which is currently under negotiation, unless every member state commits to providing financial support to Ukraine in 2027 and subsequent years, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz warned.
According to a report by the Financial Times (FT), Chancellor Merz set out Berlin’s condition for the budget talks in a letter addressed to European Council President António Costa.
In his letter, Merz wrote: “A collective commitment that every single one of us, without exception, will make a fair contribution to closing Ukraine’s budget deficit is an indispensable prerequisite for resolving this budget issue and, in particular, for addressing subsequent matters that carry financial implications.”
The German Chancellor stressed that a formula backed by all member states must be established to provide Ukraine with a reliable, multi-year financial perspective starting from 2028.
Merz also insisted that any agreed solution must cover the interest payments on debts incurred to finance the assistance provided to Kyiv.
Conversely, several countries within the bloc have cut financial aid to Ukraine, and the number of capitals adopting this stance is projected to rise next year.
In December 2025, Hungary, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic approved the EU’s 90 billion euro loan package for Kyiv only on the condition that they would not contribute to its costs themselves.
Alongside these three countries, Bulgaria has also stated that it does not plan to participate in subsequent financial assistance packages for Ukraine.
In France, far-right leader Marine Le Pen, who could potentially win the presidential election scheduled for spring 2027, recently told the FT that Paris has run out of funds.
Le Pen assessed: “The honest approach is to tell Mr Zelensky clearly, and even warn him: ‘Look, we cannot do more. We have already allocated the 90 billion euro EU loan, in which France’s share amounts to 18 billion euros. 18 billion euros is genuinely a huge amount of money.'”
The EU’s 90 billion euro loan, covering the 2026-2027 period, aims to meet two-thirds of Ukraine’s financing requirements.
Brussels expects the remaining 45 billion euros to be covered by other partners, including Canada, the UK, Norway, Japan, South Korea, and Australia.
Germany remains the largest net contributor to the EU budget.
In contrast, the four Eastern European countries seeking to avoid financing Ukraine rank among the largest net beneficiaries of the bloc’s budget.
Leveraging this balance, Chancellor Merz aims to use his influence in the EU budget negotiations to secure uninterrupted support for Kyiv in 2027 and the years beyond.
According to the FT, Berlin is also demanding that future aid packages be decided by qualified majority voting rather than unanimity, which is required under the current system.
A German government spokesperson told the newspaper:
“The issue of Ukraine’s financial needs must be resolved within the framework of the next EU budget. Financial support for Ukraine from all EU members is decisive for the successful conclusion of the budget talks.”
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