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Rwanda-Congo conflict: The EU’s and Germany’s involvement

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Tensions between the two neighboring African countries, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and Rwanda, have escalated in recent months.

The DRC accuses the Rwandan government of supporting militias in the neighboring Kivu provinces to the east of the DRC, which for decades have been seizing raw materials on a large scale and smuggling them to Rwanda.

In recent months and weeks, armed forces of the so-called ‘M23’ group, with the direct support of soldiers of the Rwandan armed forces, have seized large parts of the Kivu provinces, causing countless residents to flee the region.

Germany’s and the EU’s decades-long support for Rwanda has led to growing protests over the country’s role in the war in eastern DRC.

The Federal Republic of Germany has long cooperated closely with Rwanda, a former colony of the German Empire and a country that is also regarded in Berlin as an outsource for asylum procedures in remote parts of the world.

Last year, the EU also signed an agreement with Kigali for the supply of important raw materials.

German companies are very interested in Rwanda

Germany, other Western countries, and the EU have been cooperating closely for years with Rwanda, which was a colony of the German Empire from 1884 to 1916.

Berlin pays large sums to Kigali from its development budget; most recently in October 2022, it committed a sum of 93.6 million euros for a period of three years, two-thirds of which it called financial cooperation to promote investments.

Rwanda is one of the countries included by Germany in the Compact with Africa project, which aims to improve the framework conditions for foreign investment in participating African countries.

A German Business Desk has also been set up in Kigali to promote investments. In 2019, the Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development opened a digital center there, which, according to official statements, is intended to ‘act as a bridge’ between companies and research institutions in Germany and Rwanda.

Since 2018, Volkswagen has had a factory in the capital, Kigali, and the German vaccine manufacturer BioNTech has also been represented there since 2023.

Are M23 militias looting DRC’s minerals and smuggling them out of Rwanda?

Rwanda is also of great importance as a supplier of raw materials. For decades, observers have been pointing out in German Foreign Policy that Rwanda has been exporting much larger quantities than it produces on its own territory.

Much of this export surplus allegedly comes from the neighboring regions of the DRC, especially the provinces of North and South Kivu on its eastern border, which are extremely rich in raw materials.

Since the outbreak of the Great War in eastern DRC in 1996, Kigali has been supporting militias, especially in North Kivu, which illegally transport a significant part of the mineral resources from there across the border into Rwanda.

This means that Kinshasa is losing a lot of money: In 2023, DRC’s Minister of Finance Nicolas Kazadi estimated that this amounted to ‘a billion dollars a year.

The DRC argues that the militias, particularly those supported by Rwanda, are enabling the war in eastern DRC to continue, with Kigali’s sponsorship.

Human rights organizations draw attention to coltan among the smuggled raw materials. The mineral, used in the manufacture of mobile phones, is mined in North Kivu, often under the worst working conditions, smuggled to Rwanda, and exported from there.

M23 benefits from mineral exploitation and trade. For example, the rebels who seized the Rubaya mine (one of the world’s largest coltan deposits) last year earn about $800,000 a month in taxes, according to UN estimates.

The DRC accused Apple of profiting from looting

Indeed, last year the DRC accused Apple of using minerals illegally exported from the war-torn east of the country, challenging claims that the iPhone maker carefully verifies the origins of materials in its devices.

In a letter to Apple CEO Tim Cook dated April 22, Congolese government lawyers posed a series of questions.

In the letter, lawyers for the DRC, based in France and the US, say Apple’s iPhones, Mac computers, and other accessories are ‘stained with the blood of the Congolese people.’

The EU is allegedly covering up Rwanda’s crimes in the DRC

For years, campaigns against the supply of Eastern DRC’s ‘blood minerals’ through Rwanda have regularly failed, allegedly because the Western states supplying the raw materials are in close cooperation with Kigali and thus effectively cover up smuggling and attacks by Rwandan-backed militias in Eastern DRC.

In February last year, the EU even signed a memorandum of understanding with the Rwandan government for close cooperation in the extraction and processing of natural resources.

The focus was on so-called critical raw materials, which are indispensable for energy transition technologies. The European Commission clearly emphasizes that Rwanda exports, among other things, large quantities of tantalum, especially from coltan.

Human rights organizations warn that there is a high risk of ‘blood minerals’ entering the EU on the basis of the Memorandum of Understanding. Brussels says it has put in place control mechanisms to ensure that this is not the case, but experts point out that the daily smuggling from eastern DRC to Rwanda has long been circumvented by all sorts of tricks, so they are essentially ineffective.

Rwandan support for M23 in UN report

In 2022, United Nations experts stated that they had evidence that the M23 organization not only possessed unusually modern weapons but was also supported by troops from the Rwandan armed forces directly on the territory of the DRC.

With their help, the M23 took control of growing areas, including new raw material deposits. Operations continued even after the signing of a formal ceasefire between DRC and Rwanda in July 2024.

At the beginning of this year, UN experts assumed that between 3,000 and 4,000 soldiers from the official Rwandan armed forces were now stationed in North Kivu, and that M23 militias were participating in attacks there.

At the end of January, they succeeded in jointly capturing Goma, the provincial capital of North Kivu. After a brief ceasefire, the militias resumed their attacks on Tuesday, and countless people have been killed since then.

More than 2,000 people were allegedly burned to death in Goma following the M23 invasion last week.

According to the UN, the number of refugees in the Kivu provinces, many of them living in squalid conditions, is approaching five million.

DRC proposes ‘green corridor’ to the EU

Rwanda’s attack and occupation of large parts of Kivu province comes at a time when the DRC has offered the EU cooperation on raw material reserves in eastern DRC.

Kambale Musavuli of the Congo-Kinshasa Research Centre points this out. At this year’s World Economic Forum in Davos, the President of the DRC, Félix Tshisekedi, presented the new Green Corridor initiative, which envisages numerous development measures along a large strip of land along the Congo River, from renewable energy production to the promotion of agriculture and the creation of transport infrastructure.

In the long term, the Green Corridor is intended to connect the eastern Congolese provinces of Kivu to the capital Kinshasa, thus rivaling the traditional transport and smuggling route from the Kivu provinces to Kenya via Rwanda and Uganda, Kambale Musavuli reports.

The EU Commission has recently confirmed that it wants to support the creation of the Green Corridor and the associated construction of transport infrastructure.

After all, up to one million tonnes of agricultural products can be transported from the Kivu provinces to Kinshasa via the Green Corridor every year, and this also applies to raw materials.

Western countries in DRC face growing resentment

Protests are mounting against the war in Kivu province, the occupation of large parts of the region by M23 militias and Rwandan troops, and the authorization of these actions by Western states.

At the end of January, angry demonstrators in the capital Kinshasa attacked the embassies of Rwanda, the US, France, and Belgium, among others. Since then, protests have also been organized in other cities in the DRC.

Activists are calling for a demonstration in Berlin this Saturday. The protest is also aimed at Germany’s de facto endorsement of the Rwandan war in eastern DRC.

Diplomacy

Vance leads indirect push for US-Iran ceasefire and nuclear talks

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US Vice-President JD Vance has been personally involved over the past two weeks in indirect talks with Iran aimed at securing a fresh ceasefire and restarting nuclear negotiations.

According to Axios, Vance’s intense engagement indicates that he has taken it upon himself to extract the US from the conflict, which he views as responsible for the Republican Party’s shocking losses in this week’s elections.

This elevates the latest round of indirect talks to the highest echelons of the administration.

US officials and regional sources state that Trump is currently willing to let diplomatic efforts run their course to see whether any agreement is achievable.

Asked by reporters on Friday what his message was to Iran, Trump said, “We are talking to them.”

According to sources with direct knowledge of the matter, Vance speaks almost daily with Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, Pakistan’s Chief of Army Staff Field Marshal Asim Munir, and other mediators regarding the negotiations with Iran.

White House envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, President Trump’s adviser and son-in-law, are also involved in the process.

Sources say Vance and the Qatari and Pakistani mediators have been discussing the possibility of holding a working-level technical meeting between the US and Iran in the coming days, though this has not yet materialized.

Before the war began in late February, Vance was among the most sceptical voices in Trump’s inner circle on the issue, advocating instead for a diplomatic solution.

In April, he led the US negotiating delegation at the Iran summit held in Islamabad and was personally involved in the talks that yielded a memorandum of understanding (MOU) signed between the US and Iran in June.

Vance subsequently headed the US delegation during a series of direct talks with Iran in Switzerland.

Two weeks ago, Vance sent a letter to Mohsen Rezaei, Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, proposing that direct negotiations resume.

Rezaei is one of the closest advisers to Iran’s Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei.

Iranian officials noted that Vance’s letter generated positive momentum toward restarting talks.

On Wednesday, Vance said the war was the primary reason for the Republicans’ repudiation at the polls.

Sources involved in mediation efforts report that while progress is being made, the process is moving very slowly.

On Friday evening, the prime minister of Qatar said, “Over the past few weeks, we worked with our colleagues in the US administration who have a sincere intention to contain the situation and de-escalate. Thanks to them and the voices of reason in Tehran, we prevented the situation from spinning out of control.”

The prime minister added that discussions with the Trump administration continued following the midterm elections, though they were not as active as in previous days “because there are other matters.”

Nevertheless, he noted that the US intention to find a diplomatic resolution “remains ongoing” and emphasized that an agreement is possible.

On Friday morning, Trump and the Emir of Qatar discussed Qatari efforts to bridge differences between the US and Iran as part of an accord.

According to a statement from his office, Sheikh Tamim emphasized the necessity of “pursuing dialogue and diplomatic channels to resolve differences, prevent the region from facing further escalation, and ensure freedom of maritime navigation as well as the security of energy supplies.”

Separately, Trump confirmed on Friday that the US military conducted a strike on an anti-aircraft missile launcher on Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz after it fired a missile at a US fighter jet.

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Ukraine faces demographic collapse as fertility rates slide

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British magazine The Economist reported that mobilization, conflict casualties, and pervasive uncertainty have left Ukraine confronting the threat of demographic collapse.

According to data cited by the magazine, Ukraine’s fertility rate has declined from 1.2 children per woman in 2020 to between 0.8 and 0.9.

This rate marks a lower level than that of any major nation except South Korea.

In the first half of 2026, the number of deaths in Ukraine surpassed the number of newborn babies threefold.

The report noted that ever since independence was gained in 1991, the number of births in the country has lagged behind the number of deaths every year.

The Economist emphasized that the demographic collapse driven by the ongoing fighting constitutes an “existential threat.”

The magazine identified mass refugee migration as the principal driver of the population loss.

More than 5 million Ukrainians reside abroad, predominantly in Europe.

The proportion of those wishing to return among those who left the country is also steadily shrinking.

According to data from the Centre for Economic Strategy (CES), the share of those seeking to return dropped from 74% in 2022 to 43%.

The fact that the majority of refugees consist of Ukrainian children and women under the age of 44 further aggravates the demographic picture.

The Kyiv government decided to exempt men under the age of 25 from mobilization to alleviate the demographic decline.

The magazine reported, however, that many young people have fled the country, while those who remain do not plan to start families.

Projections cited in the report indicate that even if hostilities cease in the coming years, Ukraine can, at best, expect merely a deceleration of depopulation.

Olga Duhnich, an expert at the Ukraine-based think tank Frontier Institute, stated that the generation born in the 1990s and 2000s is the least populous in Ukraine’s modern history, meaning the country cannot expect a post-conflict baby boom.

The United Nations (UN) projects that Ukraine’s population will decline by 0.7% to 0.9% each year over the next two decades.

Under this projection, Ukraine’s population will fall to approximately 25 million by 2040.

If hostilities drag on, people are expected to abandon plans to have children, deepening the crisis even further.

Beyond exempting men under 25 from mobilization, the Kyiv government is rolling out various support packages to boost birth rates.

Under legislation enacted in the country, parents who have children receive a direct payment of 50,000 hryvnias (around $1,100).

Parents are also paid 7,000 hryvnias each month during the first year.

Other state programmes subsidize childcare costs, while Ukrainian soldiers are granted free freezing of egg and sperm cells.

Ukrainian Minister of Social Policy Denis Ulyutin said in May to the Livyi Bereh media outlet that roughly 22 to 25 million people lived in government-controlled territories.

Ulyutin characterized the prevailing picture by saying: “This is a catastrophe.”

Ella Libanova, Director of the Institute for Demography and Quality of Life Research, estimated the population at 29 million during the same period.

Libanova attributed the steep fall from a population of 30 million in 2025 to high death rates and the demographic crisis.

In a statement in October, Libanova announced that Ukraine’s population had slipped to 28.5 million.

Institute Director Libanova said: “The population is already at 28.5 million; we lost half a million people. We lost them, but thankfully this was still caused by migration rather than casualties.”

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Armenian opposition urged to form joint front against constitution

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Narek Karapetyan, a lawmaker and head of the Strong Armenia faction in the Armenian parliament, has urged opposition parties to unite around four core principles set out in a joint declaration.

The key points of the declaration include resisting territorial concessions and blocking the adoption of a new constitution, which the opposition has termed the “Aliyev constitution”.

According to a report by Aysor.am, Narek Karapetyan stated that the opposition meeting was originally planned to be led by his uncle, businessman and Strong Armenia movement leader Samvel Karapetyan.

“We initiated the meeting, but the authorities took preemptive steps to prevent Samvel Karapetyan from launching the national unification process,” Narek Karapetyan said.

Noting that, despite these events, opposition representatives convened and signed a joint declaration based on four agreed articles, Narek Karapetyan invited other opposition forces and members of the public to join the alliance.

“We will not allow them to implement the Aliyev constitution in Armenia. We must unite,” Karapetyan said.

Ahead of these developments, Armenian National Security Service personnel detained Strong Armenia Party leader Samvel Karapetyan following a search of his home.

The party’s press secretary, Agavni Sukiasyan, announced that on the morning of the same day, the Investigative Committee of Armenia searched the homes of both Samvel Karapetyan and Narek Karapetyan.

In a report citing the Investigative Committee, Armenpress stated that Samvel Karapetyan was detained as part of a case involving allegations of causing large-scale financial damage to the Electric Networks of Armenia (ENA) company, embezzling entrusted property, and money laundering.

According to committee figures, the total damage inflicted on the company exceeds $179 million.

Narek Karapetyan’s home was also searched at the end of July as part of a criminal case.

On 22 July, Armenia’s Central Electoral Commission approved the Prosecutor General’s request to strip Narek Karapetyan of his parliamentary immunity, and Karapetyan was charged with large-scale money laundering.

According to information reported by Sputnik Armenia, the investigation is linked to charges brought against Strong Armenia supporter Aleksan Aleksanyan.

Investigative authorities allege that Aleksanyan received approximately $4.4 million and €230,000 from the Karapetyan-owned Tashir Foundation under the guise of gifts and loans.

Several criminal cases had previously been opened against Samvel Karapetyan.

In 2025, Karapetyan was charged with publicly calling for the violent seizure of power after backing the Armenian Apostolic Church, which had been criticized by Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan.

In January, legal proceedings were also launched against Karapetyan on charges of large-scale tax evasion and money laundering.

Separately, in early July 2025, the Armenian parliament approved a bill enabling the nationalization of the Electric Networks of Armenia company.

In March, Armenia’s Constitutional Court ruled that the nationalization process in question complied with the law.

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