Connect with us

DIPLOMACY

Saudi Arabia and Israel – uneasy path toward normalization

Published

on

Since the return of Benjamin Netanyahu as new prime minister of Israel, he has made it clear that he wants to have a peace with Saudi Arabia and this is one of his high agenda. But what Saudi Arabia is thinking. Many say Saudi has no desire to normalize ties with Israel at the moment and it is also not a priority of Saudi officials. Also Saudi Arabia is no longer facing some obstacles due to some policies with Israel that might have existed in the past.

However, Israel has long sought to normalize relations with Arabic countries, especially Saudi Arabia. This country apparently pursues two goals by normalizing relations with Arab countries: first, marginalizing the Palestinian issue from the attention of Arab countries; second, controlling the influence of Iran and its proxy groups in the Middle East.

Israel has intensified efforts to mend ties with gulf countries since 2015 with the support of the then US president Donald Trump.

The US has been trying to act as a facilitating force that finally leads to a deal in September 2020. The Ibrahim agreement between Israel, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain was signed in the White House with the efforts of Donald Trump.

The purpose of signing this agreement was to normalize the relationship between the two mentioned countries with Israel. Meanwhile, Morocco and Sudan took steps to normalize relations with Israel in light of the terms of this agreement. But Saudi Arabia refused to join the said treaty and put conditions and restrictions at the feet of the US and Israel.

Normalization is possible

Now the incumbent US president Joe Biden wants to finish making a U-turn to conclude his predecessor’s mission to mend ties between Saudi and Israel. For this purpose, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken traveled to Saudi Arabia on June 6 and had a conversation with the crown prince Mohammed bin-Salman.

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, right, greets US President Joe Biden, with a fist bump after his arrival in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, July 15, 2022.

The normalization of Saudi Arabia’s relationship with Israel was one of the main points of discussion between the parties.

The main question is whether it is an easy process to normalize the relationship between Saudi Arabia and Israel in short or longer terms.

The normalization of relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel could be possible, but not in the time frame that the Biden administration expects. Biden wants to achieve this goal by 2024 to use it as an important achievement in the election campaigns. But there are a series of factors that make the normalization of relations between Riyadh and Tel Aviv not possible anytime soon.

The common enemy

Enmity with Iran was one of the reasons for the normalization of Saudi Arabia’s relationship with Israel as both the countries saw Iran as a common enemy and did not accept the presence of this country and its proxies in the region.

But at the same time what made Israel more aware of the necessity of normalizing relations with Arab countries was the signing of the JCPOA; The factor that called the Arab countries, especially the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, to normalize relations with Israel was Iran’s support for the Arab uprisings in 2011 and naming it as “Islamic Awakening”.

Normalization of ties between Saudi and Israel further become focal point after the defeat of Islamic State in Iraq and Syria and the growing seriousness of Iran’s proxy forces in the region, the start of the war in Yemen in 2015, the risk of increasing Iran’s missile power, the creation of a rift in the Persian Gulf Council after the economic blockade of Qatar in 2017.

Of course, Trump as a US president was a great gain for Saudi Arabia, UAE and Israel, where these three countries tried to convince Trump to unilaterally cancel the JCPOA.

But now the relationship between Saudi and Iran is not the same as it was in 2015. Now, after the signing of the friendship treaty between Riyadh and Tehran with the mediation of China, the danger of a common enemy calling Saudi Arabia and Israel to normalize relations has been removed.

Saudi and Iran no longer see each other as an enemy, and this relation could further improve in the future.

US and Israel ignoring Saudi Arabia’s demand 

Apparently, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia will not simply agree on normalization of relations with Israel and surely will place some conditions and restrictions. The Emirates and Bahrain accepted Ibrahim’s pact unconditionally, but Saudi Arabia set conditions and did not accept it.

Saudi Arabia’s demands from the US would be such as the right to have a peaceful nuclear program, receiving advanced military equipment from the US and not accusing Saudi Arabia of violating human rights, especially in the case of the murder of Jamal Khashoggi, a well known journalist.

What is clear is that Biden’s team does not follow the wishes of Saudi Arabia. For example, Trump had signed an agreement with Saudi Arabia to sell advanced weapons at a cost of more than $8 billion, but Biden suspended the process.

The US was also supposed to sell 50 F35 fighter jets to the United Arab Emirates after joining the Ibrahim Pact, but Biden refused to implement it. This comes despite the fact that Trump during his tenure at office had acted against the decision of the Congress in the field of selling advanced weapons to Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

Saudi no more eyes on US’s support

Biden also seems serious about the murder of Jamal Khashoggi and blamed the King of Saudi for his murder. During his election campaigns in 2020, Biden accused Saudi officials of being involved in Khashoggi’s murder and said that Riyadh should pay for this crime. During his visit to Saudi Arabia on July 15 last year, Biden was not welcomed by any special ceremonies from the Saudi authorities.

Many say Biden was almost not welcomed in Saudi Arabia because of his frank tone regarding the case of Khashoggi’s murder, which has greatly annoyed the Saudi authorities.

Relations between US and Saudi Arabia further deteriorated after the Ukraine war when the US wanted more oil from Saudi which faced rejections. Considering these points, it does not seem that Riyadh officials will achieve a great achievement from the reelection of Biden in the 2024 presidential elections. Biden might also fail to normalize ties between Saudi and Israel as the only foreign policy achievement to use it during an election campaign.

Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia’s demand from Israel is to agree to stop the settlement policy and form an independent state in the name of Palestine. Israel has always welcomed the normalization of relations with Saudi Arabia, but it does not seem to pay attention to this request of the Saudi authorities.

DIPLOMACY

Argentina and the IMF: Negotiations begin for a new $44bn agreement

Published

on

Argentina is pursuing a new agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to replace its current $44 billion arrangement. The effort signals a significant shift in the country’s financial strategy under President Javier Milei’s administration.

IMF Chief Spokesperson Julie Kozack confirmed on Thursday that the Milei government is prioritizing the establishment of a new programme over completing the final reviews of the existing deal inherited from the previous administration. According to a Bloomberg report, Kozack stated, “The authorities have formally expressed their desire to move to a new programme, and negotiations are now underway.”

The discussions intensified following a visit earlier this month by officials from Economy Minister Luis Caputo’s office and the central bank to Washington, where they engaged with IMF representatives.

The central question in the negotiations revolves around whether the IMF will extend additional financing beyond the $44 billion already allocated to Argentina. Milei had previously suggested an additional $15 billion, although he has not reiterated this figure recently. However, Caputo indicated this week that new funding could be included as part of the prospective programme.

If the parties reach an agreement, it would mark Argentina’s 23rd programme with the IMF since 1958 and its third since 2018. Historically, the IMF’s interventions in Argentina have faced criticism, as many past agreements failed to stabilize the economy. Successive governments often violated programme objectives, raising doubts about the effectiveness of IMF support in the country.

President Milei and his chief negotiator, Caputo, have a history of strained relations with the IMF. Earlier this year, Milei publicly criticized Rodrigo Valdes, one of the IMF’s senior officials, leading to Valdes stepping back from negotiations. Similarly, Caputo clashed with the IMF during his tenure as finance minister in 2018, particularly over exchange rate policies, which eventually prompted his resignation after a short stint as central bank governor.

Despite these tensions, the IMF has commended the Milei administration for implementing measures to cut spending, reduce inflation, and narrow gaps between the country’s various exchange rates.

Continue Reading

DIPLOMACY

Trump threatens tariffs on the EU over energy purchases

Published

on

U.S. President-elect Donald Trump has issued a warning to the European Union (EU), stating that the bloc may face tariffs if it does not increase its purchases of U.S. oil and gas on a “large scale.”

“I told the European Union that they must close the enormous gap with the United States by buying our oil and gas on a large scale. Otherwise, TARIFFS!!! in every way!!!” Trump declared in a post on the Truth Social platform on Friday.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen previously suggested that the EU could explore the possibility of importing more liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the U.S. “We still buy a lot of LNG from Russia, and why not replace it with American LNG, which is cheaper for us and lowers our energy prices?” von der Leyen remarked to reporters in November.

An EU official, speaking to the Financial Times (FT), noted the peculiarity of Trump’s threat, given von der Leyen’s earlier openness to the idea of increasing LNG imports from the U.S.

Currently, the United States is Europe’s largest supplier of LNG, though Russia remains the EU’s second-largest source. The possibility of replacing Russian LNG with U.S. imports aligns with the EU’s efforts to diversify its energy sources.

Trump has also floated the possibility of a general tariff of up to 20% on all non-Chinese imports, which could have significant implications for EU-U.S. trade relations.

In November, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde urged European leaders to engage with the U.S. on trade matters, including tariffs, and to consider purchasing more U.S.-manufactured goods. This call for cooperation echoes measures taken during Trump’s first term, when then-European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker pledged to buy more U.S. gas to avert the risk of a trade war.

Global oil prices have shown sensitivity to these developments. On Friday, international oil benchmark Brent crude prices dropped 0.4% to $72.61 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures also fell 0.4%, trading at $69.14 per barrel.

The U.S., currently the world’s largest producer of crude oil and exporter of LNG, has been strengthening its energy trade partnerships. Buyers, including the EU and Vietnam, are reportedly considering increased fuel purchases from the U.S., partly to mitigate the risk of potential tariffs.

Continue Reading

DIPLOMACY

London pushes for continued U.S. support to Ukraine amid leadership transition

Published

on

UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer urged Donald Trump on Wednesday to ensure that Western allies “stand together” in supporting Ukraine against Russian aggression.

During a phone call with the U.S. president-elect, their second conversation since Trump’s electoral victory in November, Starmer emphasized the importance of unified support for Ukraine, stating that “allies must stand with Ukraine… and ensure that Ukraine is in the strongest possible position.”

A spokesperson for the British Prime Minister’s Office described the discussion as highlighting a “shared desire to strengthen the close and historic relationship between the United Kingdom and the United States.”

Starmer began the call by congratulating Trump on his recent team appointments. Trump responded by “warmly recounting” his recent meeting with Prince William, Prince of Wales, in Paris earlier this month, according to the Prime Minister’s Office.

As Trump prepares to take office next month, he has expressed intentions to seek a deal to end the war in Ukraine, though he has also publicly criticized certain Western policies, including the approval of missile supplies to Ukraine for use on Russian soil.

In an interview with The Sun on Tuesday, Starmer expressed hope to revive trade talks with the incoming U.S. administration. These negotiations had stalled two years ago under President Joe Biden. The leaders also expressed mutual anticipation of meeting in person “at the first opportunity.” According to the i newspaper, Starmer may visit the U.S. in early February.

Meanwhile, The Telegraph reported that Starmer’s chief of staff, Morgan McSweeney, conducted private meetings with senior members of Trump’s team earlier this month. McSweeney traveled to Florida to meet Susie Wiles, Trump’s chief of staff-designate, who played a pivotal role in managing his re-election campaign. He also held discussions in Washington with Congressman Mike Waltz, Trump’s incoming National Security Adviser.

A senior source in the Prime Minister’s Office described the interactions as “very warm,” adding that “President Trump has a warm approach to the UK. As the year draws to a close, the Starmer team is confident that the UK is well-placed for a strong bilateral relationship with the new president.”

Starmer’s delegation to the U.S., which began on December 2, included Jonathan Powell, former chief of staff to Tony Blair and now Starmer’s national security adviser. Together with McSweeney, Powell engaged in policy discussions on Ukraine, China, and the Middle East, identifying areas of alignment and divergence between the two leaders.

According to The Telegraph, those close to Starmer believe Trump is currently in “listening mode” on Ukraine, carefully evaluating strategies to fulfill his campaign promise of resolving the conflict “on day one” of his presidency.

Continue Reading

MOST READ

Turkey