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Saudi Arabia and Israel – uneasy path toward normalization

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Since the return of Benjamin Netanyahu as new prime minister of Israel, he has made it clear that he wants to have a peace with Saudi Arabia and this is one of his high agenda. But what Saudi Arabia is thinking. Many say Saudi has no desire to normalize ties with Israel at the moment and it is also not a priority of Saudi officials. Also Saudi Arabia is no longer facing some obstacles due to some policies with Israel that might have existed in the past.

However, Israel has long sought to normalize relations with Arabic countries, especially Saudi Arabia. This country apparently pursues two goals by normalizing relations with Arab countries: first, marginalizing the Palestinian issue from the attention of Arab countries; second, controlling the influence of Iran and its proxy groups in the Middle East.

Israel has intensified efforts to mend ties with gulf countries since 2015 with the support of the then US president Donald Trump.

The US has been trying to act as a facilitating force that finally leads to a deal in September 2020. The Ibrahim agreement between Israel, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain was signed in the White House with the efforts of Donald Trump.

The purpose of signing this agreement was to normalize the relationship between the two mentioned countries with Israel. Meanwhile, Morocco and Sudan took steps to normalize relations with Israel in light of the terms of this agreement. But Saudi Arabia refused to join the said treaty and put conditions and restrictions at the feet of the US and Israel.

Normalization is possible

Now the incumbent US president Joe Biden wants to finish making a U-turn to conclude his predecessor’s mission to mend ties between Saudi and Israel. For this purpose, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken traveled to Saudi Arabia on June 6 and had a conversation with the crown prince Mohammed bin-Salman.

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, right, greets US President Joe Biden, with a fist bump after his arrival in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, July 15, 2022.

The normalization of Saudi Arabia’s relationship with Israel was one of the main points of discussion between the parties.

The main question is whether it is an easy process to normalize the relationship between Saudi Arabia and Israel in short or longer terms.

The normalization of relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel could be possible, but not in the time frame that the Biden administration expects. Biden wants to achieve this goal by 2024 to use it as an important achievement in the election campaigns. But there are a series of factors that make the normalization of relations between Riyadh and Tel Aviv not possible anytime soon.

The common enemy

Enmity with Iran was one of the reasons for the normalization of Saudi Arabia’s relationship with Israel as both the countries saw Iran as a common enemy and did not accept the presence of this country and its proxies in the region.

But at the same time what made Israel more aware of the necessity of normalizing relations with Arab countries was the signing of the JCPOA; The factor that called the Arab countries, especially the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, to normalize relations with Israel was Iran’s support for the Arab uprisings in 2011 and naming it as “Islamic Awakening”.

Normalization of ties between Saudi and Israel further become focal point after the defeat of Islamic State in Iraq and Syria and the growing seriousness of Iran’s proxy forces in the region, the start of the war in Yemen in 2015, the risk of increasing Iran’s missile power, the creation of a rift in the Persian Gulf Council after the economic blockade of Qatar in 2017.

Of course, Trump as a US president was a great gain for Saudi Arabia, UAE and Israel, where these three countries tried to convince Trump to unilaterally cancel the JCPOA.

But now the relationship between Saudi and Iran is not the same as it was in 2015. Now, after the signing of the friendship treaty between Riyadh and Tehran with the mediation of China, the danger of a common enemy calling Saudi Arabia and Israel to normalize relations has been removed.

Saudi and Iran no longer see each other as an enemy, and this relation could further improve in the future.

US and Israel ignoring Saudi Arabia’s demand 

Apparently, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia will not simply agree on normalization of relations with Israel and surely will place some conditions and restrictions. The Emirates and Bahrain accepted Ibrahim’s pact unconditionally, but Saudi Arabia set conditions and did not accept it.

Saudi Arabia’s demands from the US would be such as the right to have a peaceful nuclear program, receiving advanced military equipment from the US and not accusing Saudi Arabia of violating human rights, especially in the case of the murder of Jamal Khashoggi, a well known journalist.

What is clear is that Biden’s team does not follow the wishes of Saudi Arabia. For example, Trump had signed an agreement with Saudi Arabia to sell advanced weapons at a cost of more than $8 billion, but Biden suspended the process.

The US was also supposed to sell 50 F35 fighter jets to the United Arab Emirates after joining the Ibrahim Pact, but Biden refused to implement it. This comes despite the fact that Trump during his tenure at office had acted against the decision of the Congress in the field of selling advanced weapons to Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

Saudi no more eyes on US’s support

Biden also seems serious about the murder of Jamal Khashoggi and blamed the King of Saudi for his murder. During his election campaigns in 2020, Biden accused Saudi officials of being involved in Khashoggi’s murder and said that Riyadh should pay for this crime. During his visit to Saudi Arabia on July 15 last year, Biden was not welcomed by any special ceremonies from the Saudi authorities.

Many say Biden was almost not welcomed in Saudi Arabia because of his frank tone regarding the case of Khashoggi’s murder, which has greatly annoyed the Saudi authorities.

Relations between US and Saudi Arabia further deteriorated after the Ukraine war when the US wanted more oil from Saudi which faced rejections. Considering these points, it does not seem that Riyadh officials will achieve a great achievement from the reelection of Biden in the 2024 presidential elections. Biden might also fail to normalize ties between Saudi and Israel as the only foreign policy achievement to use it during an election campaign.

Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia’s demand from Israel is to agree to stop the settlement policy and form an independent state in the name of Palestine. Israel has always welcomed the normalization of relations with Saudi Arabia, but it does not seem to pay attention to this request of the Saudi authorities.

DIPLOMACY

Chinese satellite company to challenge Musk’s Starlink in Brazil

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A Chinese state-backed company is set to launch a satellite internet service in Brazil, aiming to rival Elon Musk’s Starlink.

Spacesail, a developer of high-speed internet services via satellites in low Earth orbit (LEO), made the announcement during Chinese President Xi Jinping’s visit to Brazil. The visit marked the signing of an expanded partnership with Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.

This development follows ongoing tensions between Musk, owner of SpaceX and its Starlink subsidiary, and Brazilian authorities over allegations of misinformation on his X social media network.

According to Chinese state media, Spacesail has partnered with Brazil’s state-owned Telebrás to deliver satellite communications and broadband internet to underserved areas.

A spokesperson for the Brazilian communications ministry stated that the companies would assess demand in regions lacking fiber-optic infrastructure, with plans to launch the service by 2026.

“Spacesail is committed to being Brazil’s long-term partner,” CEO Jie Zheng told reporters on Tuesday.

Musk-Lula tensions highlight Starlink’s market dominance

Brazil is actively encouraging competitors to Starlink, which controls nearly 50% of the satellite internet market in Latin America.

Earlier this year, Musk faced legal challenges in Brazil after refusing to comply with court orders to remove accounts allegedly promoting extremist content on X. This led to a temporary ban on the platform and fines for Starlink, further straining Musk’s relationship with Brazil’s left-wing government.

Tensions resurfaced recently when Brazil’s First Lady, Rosângela Lula da Silva, addressed Musk during an event on social media regulation.

Spacesail’s announcement aligns with concerns over waning U.S. influence in South America, often regarded as Washington’s “backyard.”

During his diplomatic tour, Xi Jinping attended the opening of a Chinese-built mega-port in Peru before traveling to Rio de Janeiro for the G20 summit. In Brasília, he and Lula upgraded their bilateral relationship to a “Sino-Brazilian community with a shared future”, emphasizing a fairer, more sustainable world.

The two leaders signed 37 agreements spanning agriculture, trade, infrastructure, technology, and industry. However, Brazil declined to join China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), signaling confidence in securing Chinese investments without full membership.

Operating under the name Shanghai Spacecom Satellite Technology, Spacesail plans to accelerate satellite deployment with a target of 15,000 LEO satellites by 2030. The company launched its first rounds of satellites in August and October this year, showcasing its rapid growth and potential to disrupt the market.

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China refuses to meet with U.S. Defence Secretary

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China has reportedly refused to meet with the United States Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin at the ASEAN Defence Ministers Meeting-Plus in Laos this week.

According to CNN, Austin sought a meeting with his Chinese counterpart, Dong Jun, during the event as part of ongoing efforts to maintain military communication channels between the United States and the People’s Republic of China. However, a senior defence official traveling with Austin in Laos revealed that China rejected the offer, citing the recent U.S. arms sale to Taiwan as a key factor.

Three weeks ago, the United States approved a $2 billion arms deal with Taiwan, which included the provision of advanced surface-to-air missiles—marking the first time Taiwan has received such systems. China condemned the sale and vowed to take “resolute countermeasures” to protect its sovereignty.

China’s decision to decline the meeting in Laos follows just days after U.S. President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping held what the U.S. described as a “cordial and constructive” meeting in San Francisco. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan emphasized that the dialogue was “wide-ranging” and not focused on mediating between Beijing and the incoming U.S. administration.

Relations between the two nations have remained strained since then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan in 2022, which prompted China to sever multiple lines of communication with the United States, including those related to military and climate cooperation. While military-to-military communication had recently resumed following the Biden-Xi meeting, this latest refusal highlights continued tensions in U.S.-China relations.

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G20 calls for more aid for Gaza, two-state solution and peace in Ukraine

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The leaders of the world’s 20 largest economies issued a joint statement on Monday calling for a global deal to fight hunger, more aid for war-torn Gaza and an end to hostilities in the Middle East and Ukraine.

The joint statement was approved by members of the group, but not unanimously. It also called for a future global tax on billionaires and reforms to the United Nations Security Council to allow it to expand beyond its current five permanent members.

At the start of the three-day meeting, which officially ends on Wednesday, experts doubted that Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva would be able to persuade the assembled leaders to reach an agreement at a meeting fraught with uncertainty over the new administration of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump and heightened global tensions due to wars in the Middle East and Ukraine.

Argentina objected to some language in early drafts and was the only country not to endorse the entire document.

Still, the fact that a joint statement was issued was a ‘success’ for Lula.

The declaration condemned wars and called for peace, but did not condemn any crimes.

Gaza and Ukraine on the agenda

Referring to the ‘catastrophic humanitarian situation in Gaza and the escalation in Lebanon’, the declaration stressed the need to increase humanitarian aid and better protect civilians.

“We reaffirm the Palestinian right to self-determination and reiterate our unwavering commitment to the vision of a two-state solution, with Israel and the state of Palestine living side by side in peace,” it said.

Israeli attacks have so far killed more than 43,000 Palestinians in Gaza and more than 3,500 in Lebanon, according to local health officials.

Biden, who met with G20 leaders before the statement was issued, suggested that ‘Hamas is solely responsible for the war’ and called on other leaders to ‘increase pressure on Hamas’ to accept a ceasefire agreement.

Biden’s decision to ease restrictions on Ukraine’s use of longer-range U.S. missiles, allowing it to strike Russia, was also on the agenda for the meeting.

“The United States strongly supports the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine. I think everyone around this table should do the same,” Biden said at the summit.

Russian President Vladimir Putin did not attend the meeting, sending Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov instead. The G20 statement highlighted the ‘humanitarian suffering in Ukraine’ and called for peace, without mentioning Russia.

Billionaire tax and the fight against hunger

The statement called for a possible tax on global billionaires, which Lula also supports. Such a tax would affect about 3,000 people worldwide, including about 100 in Latin America.

The declaration also included a clause promoting gender equality.

Argentina signed the G20 declaration but had problems with references to the UN’s 2030 sustainable development agenda. Far-right President Javier Milei described the agenda as a ‘supranational programme of a socialist nature’. He also objected to calls to regulate hate speech on social media, which Milei said violated national sovereignty, and to the idea that governments should do more to fight hunger.

Much of the declaration focuses on Lula’s priority of eradicating hunger.

The Brazilian government stressed that Lula’s launch of the Global Alliance Against Hunger and Poverty on Monday was at least as important as the final G20 declaration. As of Monday, 82 countries had signed the plan, the Brazilian government said. The plan is also supported by organisations such as the Rockefeller Foundation and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Call for United Nations reform

Leaders have pledged to work for ‘transformative reform’ of the UN Security Council to ‘adapt it to the realities and demands of the 21st century, making it more representative, inclusive, efficient, effective, democratic and accountable’.

Nearly eighty years after the founding of the United Nations, almost all countries agree that the Security Council needs to be expanded to reflect the world of the 21st century and to include more voices. The main dilemma and the biggest disagreement are how to do this. The G20 statement did not answer this question.

“We call for an expanded composition of the Security Council that improves the representation of underrepresented and under-represented regions and groups, such as Africa, Asia-Pacific and Latin America and the Caribbean,” the declaration said.

Shortly before the UN summit in September, the United States announced its support for two new non-permanent seats for African countries and a first non-permanent seat for small island developing states. But the Group of Four – Brazil, Germany, India and Japan – prefer each other’s proposals for permanent seats. The larger Uniting for Consensus group of a dozen countries, including Pakistan, Italy, Turkey and Mexico, wants additional non-permanent seats for longer terms.

Xi backs calls for reform and equality

Speaking at the summit, Chinese President Xi Jinping emphasized the interests of the so-called global south, which includes emerging economies, and called for reform of international institutions and consensus on how to achieve parity in finance, trade, digital technology, and the environment.

The Chinese leader said artificial intelligence should not be ‘a game of rich countries and the rich’ and stressed the need to improve digital governance for inclusive economic globalization.

Xi reiterated host Brazil’s call for greater economic equality, including poverty eradication and reform of institutions such as global creditors for developing countries.

Xi called for reform of the World Trade Organization’s dispute settlement mechanism to return to normal operation “as soon as possible”. The mechanism remains in limbo as the U.S. has blocked appointments to the Appellate Body over concerns of judicial activism.

China had filed a dispute settlement case at the WTO after the European Union imposed new tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles last month.

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