Diplomacy
Schiller Institute forum warns Iran war risks global escalation and nuclear confrontation
The Schiller Institute’s International Peace Coalition (IPC) convened its 145th weekly meeting on Friday amid intensifying conflict in Southwest Asia, with participants warning that the war involving Iran risks triggering a wider global confrontation and destabilizing the international order.
Speakers at the online forum, titled “Be Determined to Stop the Unthinkable!”, included Schiller Institute founder Helga Zepp-LaRouche, Iranian Ambassador to Mexico Mohammad Hassan Pasande, former Guyanese President Donald Ramotar, Catholic priest and peace activist Father Harry Bury, and several other analysts and campaigners. The discussion centered on the geopolitical and humanitarian consequences of the conflict, which participants described as one of the most dangerous crises in decades.
Moderating the event, Schiller Institute organizer Anastasia Battle opened the session by recalling the founding purpose of the International Peace Coalition. The forum, she said, was created “to unite the international peace movement to bring people together of many different philosophies, religions, nationalities, cultures in order to accomplish true peace in the world.”
Battle emphasized the need for dialogue among diverse viewpoints. “If we’re actually going to make this happen,” she said, “we have to have a dialogue process amongst each other, coordinate our activities and come to a higher truth amongst all of our friends, even if they’re friendly enemies.”
“We are now entering the third week of a war against Iran”
Opening the strategic discussion, Zepp-LaRouche described the ongoing hostilities as a dangerous turning point in global politics.
“We are now entering the third week of the war against Iran,” she said. “This is an unprovoked war of aggression.”
According to Zepp-LaRouche, the stated objective of regime change in Tehran had clearly failed. “The goal of regime change in Iran clearly has not been accomplished. There is no victory in sight.”
She pointed to intelligence assessments that had warned in advance that military action was unlikely to succeed. “There was a classified national intelligence report in the United States published a week before the 28th of February which stated that even a large-scale assault would not lead to regime change in Iran,” she said.
Despite such warnings, she argued, the decision to launch the attack was pushed forward by key figures in Washington. Zepp-LaRouche said US President Donald Trump himself indicated that he had been persuaded by advisers including Pete Hegseth, Marco Rubio, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner.
Rubio, she added, had publicly justified the strike with what she called “a completely strange logic.” According to Zepp-LaRouche, Rubio argued that because Israel was preparing to attack Iran and Tehran would retaliate, the United States therefore needed to launch a preemptive strike.
“So what is the situation?” Zepp-LaRouche asked. “We are in a complete strategic mess as a result.”
“We are plunging into a lawlessness where international law no longer exists”
Zepp-LaRouche warned that the conflict reflects a broader erosion of international norms.
“This is clearly a new phase,” she said. “The targeted elimination, through kidnappings or assassinations of elected leaders of state, is a sign of a plunge into lawlessness.”
She cited incidents including the alleged kidnapping of Venezuela’s President Nicolás Maduro and the assassination of Iran’s Supreme Leader, which she said symbolized the breakdown of the international legal order.
“We are plunging into a lawlessness where international law is officially declared non-existent anymore,” she said.
Zepp-LaRouche also warned that the military campaign could escalate rapidly if strategic bombing fails to achieve its objectives. She referred to an article by Atlantic Council adviser Harlan Ullman that suggested only nuclear weapons had historically forced surrender through bombing.
“He wrote that strategic bombing has never achieved its goal except once in history, with Hiroshima and Nagasaki,” she said. “And therefore, if Trump wants to force Iran to surrender, only nuclear weapons could produce that shock and awe.”
The implications, she warned, are catastrophic.
“That could have consequences for an escalation spiral in no time,” Zepp-LaRouche said. “The danger that we may end up with the extinction of humankind has never been as great as right now.”
“This war was a betrayal of diplomacy”
Iran’s ambassador to Mexico, Mohammad Hassan Pasande, told the forum that Tehran considers the conflict both illegal and unjustified.
“Since February 28, Iran has been the victim of an unfair and unequal war,” Pasande said.
“This war has crossed several human boundaries.”
Pasande said the attack occurred while negotiations were underway, calling it “a betrayal of diplomacy.”
“For the second time we were attacked in the middle of negotiations,” he said.
He argued that the military action violated the foundations of the post-World War II international system.
“It was a mockery of the Charter of the United Nations,” Pasande said. “The UN Charter was written after the deaths of tens of millions of people to prevent pointless wars.”
Instead of international law, he said, “force and power” had replaced diplomacy and multilateralism.
“It replaced multilateralism with unilateralism,” Pasande told participants.
“Iran has become a bastion of resistance”
Pasande warned that the outcome of the conflict could shape the global balance of power.
“Today Iran has become a bastion of resistance,” he said. “If Iran is also taken, resistance against coercion and unilateralism will collapse like a row of dominoes.”
He cautioned that other nations could face similar pressure if Iran were defeated.
“It is not clear who will be next after Iran,” Pasande said. “Mexico or China.”
Silence in the face of military aggression, he argued, would endanger the international community.
“Silence in the face of this aggression will make life more difficult for the people of the world.”
Pasande also criticized what he described as a dominance of hostile narratives against Iran.
“We had already become victims of narrative building before becoming victims of F-35 and B-2 warplanes,” he said.
“Iran is fighting for the survival of the Middle East”
Former Guyanese President Donald Ramotar expressed solidarity with Iran and praised the country’s resilience under attack.
“I would like to tell the people of Iran how much we admire their tenacity and the courage that they are showing in the face of this unprovoked attack,” Ramotar said.
He recalled earlier attacks on Iranian leadership figures, including the assassination of General Qassem Soleimani and the killings of Iranian scientists.
“I cannot think of another country that has faced such repeated attacks on its leadership,” he said.
Ramotar argued that the broader geopolitical objective was control of the Middle East.
“Iran is seen as the main obstacle to Israel controlling the entire Middle East,” he said. “It is also seen as the main obstacle to the United States controlling the resources in that region.”
For that reason, he said, Iran’s struggle has wider significance.
“Iran is fighting a battle not only for its own survival but for the struggle of the peoples of the whole Middle East.”
“Violence is not the answer to peace”
Catholic priest and long-time peace activist Father Harry Bury framed the crisis in moral and religious terms.
“Our hearts are breaking at what is happening to Iran,” Bury said. “The action of Israel and the United States attacking Iran is not only crazy, it is immoral.”
Drawing on Christian teachings, he rejected the idea that military force could achieve peace.
“Violence is not the answer to peace,” he said. “Violence has been an act of vengeance, not an act of love.”
Quoting the teachings of Jesus, he added: “We are to love our enemies. Bombing them is not a way of doing good.”
Bury urged participants to support a peace initiative promoted by the Schiller Institute, including an open letter addressed to Pope Leo XIV calling for religious leaders to intervene.
“The world must return to multilateralism”
In his closing remarks, Ambassador Pasande warned that the world risked repeating the mistakes that led to global war in the twentieth century.
“When unilateralism grows stronger, we remember what happened before the First and Second World Wars,” he said. “Nazism and fascism emerged, and almost 80 million people were killed.”
He argued that the principles established after World War II are now under threat.
“Today we see that the norms written into the United Nations Charter are not being respected,” Pasande said.
He also raised concerns about attacks on cultural heritage and civilian infrastructure during the conflict.
“Why should civilians have to breathe poisoned air from attacks on oil facilities?” he asked. “Why attack historical areas that belong to all humanity?”
Ultimately, he said, restoring peace requires rebuilding the international system around cooperation.
“What has been lost today in the world is peace,” Pasande said. “God has not created us to be in conflict and kill one another.”
“If we return to multilateralism, we will find a world that is more positive and beneficial for all.”
Diplomacy
Iran rejects Turkish foreign minister’s comparison of regional policy to Israel
Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei strongly criticized Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan’s recent statements comparing Iran’s regional actions to those of Israel, calling the comparison “astonishing and incorrect” during his weekly press conference.
In a comprehensive briefing on Monday, Baghaei addressed a wide range of foreign policy developments and regional security matters, including relations with Türkiye, the current state of diplomatic understandings with the United States, and Iran’s nuclear program.
“Hakan Fidan’s comparison is astonishing and incorrect”
When asked about Fidan’s assertions regarding Iran and his comparison of Iranian actions to those of the Israeli government, Baghaei sharply rejected the assessment.
“It is astonishing that a figure of Mr. Fidan’s standing would make such an unwarranted comparison,” Baghaei said. “He knows very well that the Israeli regime is expansionist by nature and seeks to harm the entire region, including Türkiye. How they arrived at such a bizarre comparison remains a major question for us.”
Baghaei asserted that Iran maintains no proxy forces in the region and argued that Israel represents the only true proxy entity in the Middle East. “We ask our Turkish friends to align their analyses with existing realities and to avoid repeating analyses that serve the exploitative interests of the Israeli regime,” the spokesperson added.
The remarks follow recent statements by Fidan, in which he addressed the ongoing conflict involving Hezbollah and Hamas, describing them as Iranian proxies in the region.
“We need to return to a situation where the sovereignty and territorial integrity of every nation is fully recognized,” Fidan had stated. “Iran has long claimed to pursue a preventive security policy by maintaining proxies in these countries, just as the Israelis occupy the rest of the region as part of their own security.”
“The Islamabad Agreement has entered a crisis phase”
Responding to a question regarding the status of the Islamabad Agreement, Baghaei stated: “There is no doubt that this agreement has entered a crisis phase.”
While emphasizing that Iran approaches all negotiations with seriousness and precision, and fulfills its commitments in good faith once an agreement is reached, Baghaei accused the opposing party of failing to honor its pledges.
“They were so eager to breach the agreement that they did not even allow the one-month period specified in Article 5 regarding the Strait of Hormuz to run its course. They began backsliding from the very first days,” Baghaei said. “Looking at the 14 articles of the memorandum of understanding, the Americans dismantled different components of the agreement within this short timeframe. We have maintained from the beginning that it is a matter of ‘commitment for commitment.’ As long as the other party fulfills its obligations, we will remain committed to ours.”
“We reject the IAEA’s request to access damaged facilities”
Asked about the request by International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director General Rafael Grossi for inspectors to return to Iran and visit damaged nuclear facilities, Baghaei delivered a flat rejection, stating that the request would not be granted.
Addressing separate reports regarding satellite imagery of nuclear facility reconstruction, Baghaei noted that he had not yet seen the satellite images in question and therefore declined to comment.
“We will not allow the Strait of Hormuz to be threatened by the US”
Commenting on maritime security in the Strait of Hormuz and allegations that the United States is providing military escorts to 20 vessels, Baghaei reiterated Iran’s opposition to the presence of extra-regional forces.
Baghaei stated that regional security can only be achieved without foreign intervention, through consultative mechanisms among regional countries. He added that the US military presence is a source of insecurity in the region.
“We will not allow the Strait of Hormuz to become an area of threat against Iran’s interests,” the spokesperson said. “We made genuine efforts to ensure navigation security, but the US was the party that undermined the process. The claims regarding vessel escorts demonstrate that the US is continuing its interventionist and aggressive policies in the region.”
Regarding the interpretation of Article 5 of the memorandum of understanding, Baghaei stated that the text is clear and leaves no room for interpretation.
He noted that provisions designating the management of the strait to Iran, in consultation with Oman, were included in the text to protect Iranian interests. He added that the US is attempting to establish parallel routes by provoking regional countries, which he warned causes environmental issues and jeopardizes maritime safety.
“The declaration by the three European countries is null and void”
Referring to a joint declaration issued by France, Germany, and the United Kingdom, Baghaei dismissed the statement as entirely invalid, accusing the European nations of attempting to distort facts.
He stated that the actions of the US and Israel are the source of instability and harm in both the region and the wider world, adding that such declarations do not contribute to any resolution.
Addressing claims made by the French Foreign Minister, Baghaei added that French officials should cease attempting to assume roles in matters that do not concern them.
“We have not conditioned cooperation with Afghanistan on recognition”
Baghaei provided details on a recent visit to Afghanistan by Alireza Jalalzadeh, the Deputy Foreign Minister for Consular Affairs, noting that discussions were conducted within the framework of consular affairs and people-to-people relations.
Highlighting that Iran shares a border of more than 900 kilometers with Afghanistan, hosts a large number of Afghan migrants, and maintains extensive commercial ties, Baghaei said: “We have not conditioned the official recognition of the Afghan administration on the cooperation necessary for the interests of both countries. The recognition process is a legal procedure, and a decision on this matter will be made when the time comes.”
“We do not make decisions on behalf of Lebanon”
Rejecting allegations that Iran is interfering in the internal affairs of Lebanon and Oman, Baghaei said: “We do not make decisions on behalf of anyone. The inclusion of Lebanon’s name in the memorandum of understanding demonstrates Iran’s sense of responsibility toward maintaining international security. In the first article of the text, we emphasized the need to end the war on all fronts, including Lebanon. This is not a matter of decision-making; the decision belongs to the Lebanese people.”
Addressing international pressure regarding the disarmament of Hezbollah, Baghaei stated that the Lebanese people are best positioned to understand the value of the resistance’s weapons in protecting their sovereignty, and that any decision on the matter rests solely with them.
“Trump’s claims are false”
Baghaei denied claims made by former US President Donald Trump regarding Iran’s conduct during nuclear negotiations.
“Lying has become a behavioral pattern and an addiction for the US,” Baghaei said. “The talks held in Muscat on Saturday focused exclusively on the Strait of Hormuz. We attempted to establish a mechanism to ensure the safe passage of vessels through Omani mediation, but this outcome was not reached due to pressure exerted on Oman.”
He added that alleged assassination plots against Trump were never a subject of negotiation.
“The death of Lindsey Graham will not grieve free people”
When asked to comment on the death of US Senator Lindsey Graham, Baghaei remarked:
“The Angel of Death is just. One cannot expect the peoples of the region to mourn a figure who built his life philosophy on aggression, war, and terror, and who boasted of being the greatest supporter of genocide. The death of this aggressive senator will not grieve the heart of any free person.”
Diplomacy
NATO leadership sees no evidence of Russian preparations for attack on Baltics by 2030
The military and political leadership of NATO sees no evidence that Russia is preparing for a potential attack on the Baltic states by 2030, according to a report by The Times, citing a senior alliance source.
“I see absolutely no sign that Russia is interested in engaging in any conflict with NATO,” the high-ranking source told the newspaper. The official added that they had no intention of speculating on the date of a potential conflict, as some other officials within the alliance have done.
The Times noted that rhetoric suggesting an open military conflict between NATO and Russia could begin in 2030 is primarily being used to mobilize the resources of the alliance’s member states. The report stated that this framing aims to encourage members to meet a defense spending target set at 5% of their gross domestic product (GDP) by 2035. Speaking to the newspaper on the sidelines of the NATO summit in Ankara, Martin O’Donnell, spokesperson for the Supreme Headquarters Allied Powers Europe (SHAPE), said that allies currently have a “window of opportunity” to build up the capabilities already agreed upon.
Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov has previously stated that the militarization of Europe would require Russia to take additional measures to guarantee its national security.
As the implications of these developments continue to play out in the military arena, Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda announced on July 9 that NATO leadership has converted the mandate of the Baltic air policing mission from air patrol to a combat footing.
The day before this decision, leaders attending the NATO summit in Ankara pointed to the “long-term threat Russia poses to Euro-Atlantic security and stability” in a joint declaration.
NATO has repeatedly expressed concerns over a potential conflict with Russia. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte has urged member states not to be “naive” about threats coming from Russia and to increase their defense spending. Similarly, the commander of the German Army, Christian Freuding, asserted on June 12 that his country must “be ready for a Russian attack” by 2029 or sooner, stating, “We must be ready for war.”
In contrast, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Aleksandr Grushko claimed in a June 22 interview with the Izvestia newspaper that NATO and the European Union are preparing for a military conflict with Russia on the horizon of 2030. Grushko noted that from a military perspective, there is now little difference between NATO and the EU regarding aggressive ambitions toward Moscow, and that their main objective is to inflict a strategic defeat on Russia.
The Moscow administration has repeatedly emphasized that it has no intention of attacking Europe. Russian President Vladimir Putin has stated that there are no geopolitical, economic, or military reasons to fight the alliance. Nevertheless, Putin has also stated that “all NATO countries are virtually at war with Russia.”
Last year, representatives of NATO countries approved a declaration agreeing to raise military spending to 5% of GDP by 2035. Under this target, 3.5% of spending is projected to go directly to the military budget, while 1.5% is to be allocated indirectly to defense through cybersecurity and the modernization of highways.
Diplomacy
Zelenskyy announces sweeping Ukrainian cabinet shakeup as Prime Minister Sviridenko resigns
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced a sweeping structural overhaul of the government, confirming that a new prime minister will soon take office.
Following the announcement, the Ukrainian leader held a series of meetings over a two-and-a-half-hour period with potential candidates positioned to succeed Yulia Sviridenko as prime minister.
“Political strategy is changing”
Writing on his Telegram channel, Zelenskyy announced that the structure of the cabinet of ministers will change and that Sviridenko, who is stepping down from her post, will be assigned to a new role.
The Ukrainian president stated that the country is renewing its political strategy. Under the new approach, specific individuals with extensive experience will be put in charge of each priority foreign policy direction to implement agreements reached at the leadership level and to meet the expectations of the Ukrainian people.
Approximately one hour after Zelenskyy’s statement, Sviridenko confirmed her departure from the post of Prime Minister of Ukraine via a message on social media.
Thanking the president for his high valuation of her work, Sviridenko stated that she and Zelenskyy had discussed future steps.
Sviridenko began her career in the Ukrainian government in 2019 as Deputy Minister of Economy. Between 2020 and 2021, she served as deputy head of the presidential office, during which time she participated in negotiations regarding the Donbas.
In November 2021, she assumed control of economic management as First Deputy Prime Minister. In the spring of 2025, she signed a resource agreement with the US on behalf of Ukraine.
Zelenksyy proposed that Sviridenko lead the government in July 2025, and the Verkhovna Rada, Ukraine’s parliament, approved her candidacy with 262 votes in a session held on July 17, 2025.
Prior to Sviridenko, Denys Shmyhal had led the cabinet since March 2020. He currently serves as the Minister of Energy.
Priority targets of the new cabinet established
Zelenskyy outlined the primary areas of focus for the renewed government, listing relations with the US—specifically licensing agreements for the production of Patriot systems and security cooperation—as top priorities.
Other core objectives include the European anti-ballistic missile project, the European Union accession process, relations with neighboring states—particularly Poland and Hungary—cooperation with the Middle East, the Gulf countries, and China, as well as relations with international organizations.
The Ukrainian leader also stressed the need to strengthen operations along the front lines and border regions, increase weapons supplies, complete winter preparations, accelerate the transformation of state-owned enterprises, and implement agreements reached with partners regarding the reconstruction of Ukraine.
Who could succeed Sviridenko as prime minister?
The last major reshuffle in the Ukrainian government took place a year ago, with Sviridenko assuming the premiership in July 2025.
Under Ukrainian law, the candidate for prime minister must be proposed by the majority coalition in the Verkhovna Rada.
Once appointed, the prime minister submits the majority of the cabinet members to parliament for approval.
Russian President Vladimir Putin previously stated that the only legitimate power in Ukraine is the Verkhovna Rada. According to Putin’s assessment, the only authority qualified to participate in peace talks is the speaker of the Ukrainian parliament, asserting that Zelenskyy lacks legitimacy and therefore has no authority to sign any document.
According to a report by the Ukrainska Pravda newspaper, citing sources familiar with the matter, potential candidates being considered for the premiership include:
- Sergiy Koretskyy, Chairman of the Board of Naftogaz and Director of Ukrnafta
- Denys Shmyhal, Minister of Energy
- Mykhailo Fedorov, Minister of Defense
- Ihor Terekhov, Mayor of Kharkiv
Zelenskyy announced that he met with all of these officials, as well as Ukrainian Interior Minister Ihor Klymenko, during the day.
Sources familiar with the matter who spoke to RBC-Ukraine stated that the president’s decision to renew the government came as a surprise to many. The sources informing the publication also put forward Koretskyy’s name for the premiership.
Sources speaking to Bloomberg also pointed to Koretskyy alongside Shmyhal. The agency reported that both Koretskyy and Shmyhal possess extensive experience in the energy sector, which partially explains their candidacy to succeed Sviridenko.
Meanwhile, Verkhovna Rada Deputy Yaroslav Zheleznyak reported that the parliamentary vote on the prime minister’s resignation could take place on July 13 or 14.
Zheleznyak stated that following this vote, the entire government will function in an interim capacity, with Shmyhal temporarily leading the administration in his capacity as deputy prime minister.
According to information shared by Zheleznyak, Sviridenko will become Ukraine’s new ambassador to the US. The Financial Times also reported, citing two sources, that the outgoing prime minister will be appointed to this post.
Zelenskyy stated that he had offered Sviridenko the opportunity to head a new and important direction in relations with a key partner, though he did not share specific details regarding which country or organization this would involve.
Subsequently, a report by the Interfax-Ukraine agency, citing sources, stated that Olga Stefanishyna, who currently serves as Ukraine’s Ambassador to the US, wishes to end her diplomatic service due to personal reasons.
Stefanishyna has held the post for less than a year, with Zelenskyy having signed the decree for her appointment in August 2025.
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