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Schiller Institute forum warns Iran war risks global escalation and nuclear confrontation

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The Schiller Institute’s International Peace Coalition (IPC) convened its 145th weekly meeting on Friday amid intensifying conflict in Southwest Asia, with participants warning that the war involving Iran risks triggering a wider global confrontation and destabilizing the international order.

Speakers at the online forum, titled “Be Determined to Stop the Unthinkable!”, included Schiller Institute founder Helga Zepp-LaRouche, Iranian Ambassador to Mexico Mohammad Hassan Pasande, former Guyanese President Donald Ramotar, Catholic priest and peace activist Father Harry Bury, and several other analysts and campaigners. The discussion centered on the geopolitical and humanitarian consequences of the conflict, which participants described as one of the most dangerous crises in decades.

Moderating the event, Schiller Institute organizer Anastasia Battle opened the session by recalling the founding purpose of the International Peace Coalition. The forum, she said, was created “to unite the international peace movement to bring people together of many different philosophies, religions, nationalities, cultures in order to accomplish true peace in the world.”

Battle emphasized the need for dialogue among diverse viewpoints. “If we’re actually going to make this happen,” she said, “we have to have a dialogue process amongst each other, coordinate our activities and come to a higher truth amongst all of our friends, even if they’re friendly enemies.”

“We are now entering the third week of a war against Iran”

Opening the strategic discussion, Zepp-LaRouche described the ongoing hostilities as a dangerous turning point in global politics.

“We are now entering the third week of the war against Iran,” she said. “This is an unprovoked war of aggression.”

According to Zepp-LaRouche, the stated objective of regime change in Tehran had clearly failed. “The goal of regime change in Iran clearly has not been accomplished. There is no victory in sight.”

She pointed to intelligence assessments that had warned in advance that military action was unlikely to succeed. “There was a classified national intelligence report in the United States published a week before the 28th of February which stated that even a large-scale assault would not lead to regime change in Iran,” she said.

Despite such warnings, she argued, the decision to launch the attack was pushed forward by key figures in Washington. Zepp-LaRouche said US President Donald Trump himself indicated that he had been persuaded by advisers including Pete Hegseth, Marco Rubio, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner.

Rubio, she added, had publicly justified the strike with what she called “a completely strange logic.” According to Zepp-LaRouche, Rubio argued that because Israel was preparing to attack Iran and Tehran would retaliate, the United States therefore needed to launch a preemptive strike.

“So what is the situation?” Zepp-LaRouche asked. “We are in a complete strategic mess as a result.”

“We are plunging into a lawlessness where international law no longer exists”

Zepp-LaRouche warned that the conflict reflects a broader erosion of international norms.

“This is clearly a new phase,” she said. “The targeted elimination, through kidnappings or assassinations of elected leaders of state, is a sign of a plunge into lawlessness.”

She cited incidents including the alleged kidnapping of Venezuela’s President Nicolás Maduro and the assassination of Iran’s Supreme Leader, which she said symbolized the breakdown of the international legal order.

“We are plunging into a lawlessness where international law is officially declared non-existent anymore,” she said.

Zepp-LaRouche also warned that the military campaign could escalate rapidly if strategic bombing fails to achieve its objectives. She referred to an article by Atlantic Council adviser Harlan Ullman that suggested only nuclear weapons had historically forced surrender through bombing.

“He wrote that strategic bombing has never achieved its goal except once in history, with Hiroshima and Nagasaki,” she said. “And therefore, if Trump wants to force Iran to surrender, only nuclear weapons could produce that shock and awe.”

The implications, she warned, are catastrophic.

“That could have consequences for an escalation spiral in no time,” Zepp-LaRouche said. “The danger that we may end up with the extinction of humankind has never been as great as right now.”

“This war was a betrayal of diplomacy”

Iran’s ambassador to Mexico, Mohammad Hassan Pasande, told the forum that Tehran considers the conflict both illegal and unjustified.

“Since February 28, Iran has been the victim of an unfair and unequal war,” Pasande said.

“This war has crossed several human boundaries.”

Pasande said the attack occurred while negotiations were underway, calling it “a betrayal of diplomacy.”

“For the second time we were attacked in the middle of negotiations,” he said.

He argued that the military action violated the foundations of the post-World War II international system.

“It was a mockery of the Charter of the United Nations,” Pasande said. “The UN Charter was written after the deaths of tens of millions of people to prevent pointless wars.”

Instead of international law, he said, “force and power” had replaced diplomacy and multilateralism.

“It replaced multilateralism with unilateralism,” Pasande told participants.

“Iran has become a bastion of resistance”

Pasande warned that the outcome of the conflict could shape the global balance of power.

“Today Iran has become a bastion of resistance,” he said. “If Iran is also taken, resistance against coercion and unilateralism will collapse like a row of dominoes.”

He cautioned that other nations could face similar pressure if Iran were defeated.

“It is not clear who will be next after Iran,” Pasande said. “Mexico or China.”

Silence in the face of military aggression, he argued, would endanger the international community.

“Silence in the face of this aggression will make life more difficult for the people of the world.”

Pasande also criticized what he described as a dominance of hostile narratives against Iran.

“We had already become victims of narrative building before becoming victims of F-35 and B-2 warplanes,” he said.

“Iran is fighting for the survival of the Middle East”

Former Guyanese President Donald Ramotar expressed solidarity with Iran and praised the country’s resilience under attack.

“I would like to tell the people of Iran how much we admire their tenacity and the courage that they are showing in the face of this unprovoked attack,” Ramotar said.

He recalled earlier attacks on Iranian leadership figures, including the assassination of General Qassem Soleimani and the killings of Iranian scientists.

“I cannot think of another country that has faced such repeated attacks on its leadership,” he said.

Ramotar argued that the broader geopolitical objective was control of the Middle East.

“Iran is seen as the main obstacle to Israel controlling the entire Middle East,” he said. “It is also seen as the main obstacle to the United States controlling the resources in that region.”

For that reason, he said, Iran’s struggle has wider significance.

“Iran is fighting a battle not only for its own survival but for the struggle of the peoples of the whole Middle East.”

“Violence is not the answer to peace”

Catholic priest and long-time peace activist Father Harry Bury framed the crisis in moral and religious terms.

“Our hearts are breaking at what is happening to Iran,” Bury said. “The action of Israel and the United States attacking Iran is not only crazy, it is immoral.”

Drawing on Christian teachings, he rejected the idea that military force could achieve peace.

“Violence is not the answer to peace,” he said. “Violence has been an act of vengeance, not an act of love.”

Quoting the teachings of Jesus, he added: “We are to love our enemies. Bombing them is not a way of doing good.”

Bury urged participants to support a peace initiative promoted by the Schiller Institute, including an open letter addressed to Pope Leo XIV calling for religious leaders to intervene.

“The world must return to multilateralism”

In his closing remarks, Ambassador Pasande warned that the world risked repeating the mistakes that led to global war in the twentieth century.

“When unilateralism grows stronger, we remember what happened before the First and Second World Wars,” he said. “Nazism and fascism emerged, and almost 80 million people were killed.”

He argued that the principles established after World War II are now under threat.

“Today we see that the norms written into the United Nations Charter are not being respected,” Pasande said.

He also raised concerns about attacks on cultural heritage and civilian infrastructure during the conflict.

“Why should civilians have to breathe poisoned air from attacks on oil facilities?” he asked. “Why attack historical areas that belong to all humanity?”

Ultimately, he said, restoring peace requires rebuilding the international system around cooperation.

“What has been lost today in the world is peace,” Pasande said. “God has not created us to be in conflict and kill one another.”

“If we return to multilateralism, we will find a world that is more positive and beneficial for all.”

Diplomacy

South Korea pulls part of embassy staff from Ukraine amid POW dispute

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The South Korean government has decided to withdraw part of its embassy staff from Ukraine.

According to the Yonhap news agency, Foreign Ministry spokesman Park Doo-sun cited the Kyiv administration’s failure to take “positive steps” in the dispute that began with the leak of information concerning the handover of North Korean prisoners of war as the justification for the move.

The spokesman also listed the ongoing threat of air strikes, which complicates the safety of diplomats, among the reasons.

Following the withdrawal of part of the personnel, essential diplomatic contacts will continue under the leadership of the charge d’affaires ad interim to Ukraine. All consular staff tasked with protecting South Korean citizens will remain in Ukraine.

Prior to this move, the Seoul administration decided on 8 October to withdraw its ambassador. The Foreign Ministry stated at the time that it was ready to continue consultations with Kyiv to resolve the emerging issues constructively.

Tensions between the two countries began with a speech delivered by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the United Nations General Assembly in September.

Zelenskyy announced that two captured soldiers from the North Korean army had been handed over to South Korea.

South Korean President Lee Jae-myung, meanwhile, accused Kyiv of breaching a confidentiality agreement.

Lee said the disclosure of this information endangered the prisoners’ families and stability on the Korean Peninsula.

Seoul expects a public apology

Dmytro Lytvyn, an adviser to the Ukrainian president, denied the existence of a confidentiality agreement.

The South Korean Foreign Ministry summoned Ukrainian Charge d’Affaires Andriy Veshkin on 28 September and issued a note of protest against Lytvyn’s remarks.

President Lee Jae-myung warned in a statement on 2 October that they would take additional measures against Kyiv if Ukrainian authorities did not acknowledge the agreement and make a public apology. Lee stated that Ukraine itself had initially requested that the transfer of the prisoners be kept confidential.

Ukrainian Foreign Ministry spokesman Heorhii Tykhyi said the dispute stemmed from differing interpretations of the confidentiality regime.

Tykhyi noted that Seoul, based on its constitution which recognises the entire Korean Peninsula as its own territory, requested that the prisoners be handed over “like its own citizens”.

Describing the handover as a “gesture of goodwill”, Tykhyi stated that they were conducting closed-door negotiations to resolve differences of opinion.

Ambassador Park Ki-chang returned to Seoul on 10 October. According to a report by The Korea Times newspaper citing the ministry, recalling the ambassador served as a diplomatic protest against the leak of information regarding the prisoners.

The newspaper wrote that South Korea had last taken a similar step in 2008 by withdrawing its ambassador to Japan.

Moscow warned foreign diplomats

On 3 October, the Russian Foreign Ministry reiterated its warning to foreign nationals, including diplomatic mission staff, against remaining in Ukraine.

The ministry recalled its advice to leave Kyiv, citing ongoing strikes against military targets.

The ministry noted that those who failed to heed the warnings would bear responsibility for the potential consequences.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said in a statement on 24 September that they had no information regarding Kyiv handing over two North Korean prisoners of war to Seoul.

Peskov, noting that prisoner matters fall under the authority of the Defence Ministry and intelligence services, said, “Contacts through the special services are continuing.”

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Ex-BND head Hanning tied to former Mossad chief amid spy inquiry

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August Hanning, who led Germany’s Federal Intelligence Service (BND) between 1998 and 2005, was arrested on 6 October on allegations that he obtained roughly 2,000 classified agency documents and used them during contacts with intelligence officers from a foreign state.

Accused of high treason and espionage on behalf of a foreign intelligence agency, the former spy chief is alleged to have procured the documents from former BND employee Manfred D.

Prosecutors stated that the leaked records included internal briefing notes presented to senior German officials, though the Berlin government has not yet publicly disclosed which country received the classified data.

According to an exclusive report by Jake Green for The Cradle, seized email exchanges revealed extensive ties between the arrested Hanning and former Mossad director Danny Yatom.

The correspondence shows that the two former intelligence directors built an ongoing network of contacts following their public service, combining commercial ventures, efforts to secure political influence, and intelligence links.

This dynamic has triggered debate that using personal connections and official access for private gain has left Germany’s intelligence apparatus vulnerable.

Intelligence notes for 10,000 euros and campaign proposals

According to the reviewed emails, Hanning told Yatom in a 2018 message that he could prepare an “overall assessment based on information obtained from senior German officials and intelligence agencies” concerning an unidentified candidate.

The former BND head committed to completing the report by 13 July in exchange for 10,000 euros.

Contacts between the two men subsequently expanded to cover domestic political processes in Germany. Ahead of the September 2021 federal election, Yatom asked Hanning to approach leading candidates.

Describing CIY Global as a “political campaign company”, the former Mossad chief noted that he aimed to introduce its capabilities to German politicians, and he mentioned his intention in the same exchange to transfer documents concerning a cybersecurity firm.

Cybersecurity partnership and surveillance operations across Europe

The partnership between Yatom and Hanning reached beyond political lobbying initiatives into the cybersecurity sector.

Hanning reportedly served as a consultant for World Health Energy Holdings, a cybersecurity company linked to Yatom.

Firms of this type, established or managed by former intelligence personnel, provide commercial platforms on the international market for Israeli-origin surveillance, cyber intelligence, and political influence capabilities.

The operational presence of private Israeli-based surveillance technologies across Europe has recently entered judicial records through scandals in Poland, Spain, and Greece.

Polish prosecutors announced on 12 October that data collected under the previous government via Pegasus spyware against political opponents had been transferred out of the country, adding that manufacturer NSO Group maintained access to the technical infrastructure.

In Spain, the 2022 CatalanGate investigation established that at least 65 people, including politicians, lawyers, and civil society representatives, were targeted using Pegasus or Candiru software, with Citizen Lab researchers publishing strong evidence linking the operation to Spanish authorities.

In Greece, the surveillance operation targeting journalist Thanasis Koukakis and Member of the European Parliament Nikos Androulakis was determined to have used Predator software, linked to Intellexa, a company founded by former Israeli intelligence officer Tal Dilian.

In the German espionage investigation, the traffic between Hanning and Yatom involving paid reporting, contacts with electoral candidates, and commercial partnerships does not yet provide conclusive legal evidence regarding the final destination of the roughly 2,000 classified documents.

Nevertheless, the disclosed correspondence gives German investigators a concrete line of inquiry to assess whether classified state secrets reached commercial networks tied to Israeli intelligence.

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Trump dismisses US envoy to Greece Kimberly Guilfoyle

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US President Donald Trump has dismissed Kimberly Guilfoyle, the US ambassador in Athens, following serious press reports concerning her conduct.

White House Press Secretary Katie Zacharia told reporters during her first briefing that Guilfoyle had been asked to resign.

“She was doing a good job, but we didn’t like what we read in the press,” Trump said. “She was not a member of my family. I think she dated my son a long time ago.”

In a social media post, Guilfoyle stated: “These claims are unfounded, and I will resolutely defend my name, reputation, and integrity.” She added that she was particularly proud of the embassy’s work.

According to Kathimerini, her removal came as no surprise in Washington. Days of successive disclosures and vigorous exploitation of the matter by Democrats had been inflicting political damage on the White House ahead of the sensitive midterm elections.

The US State Department was instructed not to comment, with crisis management transferred entirely to the White House.

Reports indicate that most of the president’s team swiftly favoured Guilfoyle’s dismissal, while Secretary of State Marco Rubio was reportedly uneasy with the demonstratively warm public welcome she had staged for him.

Democrats on the House Foreign Affairs Committee have called for an investigation.

“Her resignation does not absolve her of responsibility,” the lawmakers wrote, adding: “While American families struggled to make ends meet, she used her position as a Trump administration official to enrich herself.”

Chargé d’Affaires Josh Huck will assume ambassadorial duties until a successor is chosen.

Meanwhile, Guilfoyle’s departure is expected to cause delays in agreements between Greece and the US.

These include the so-called “Rubio package”, comprising approximately $4 billion in arms deals finalised only days before the secretary of state’s arrival.

Several procedural steps still remain before the contracts can be signed.

In Athens, opposition parties are demanding answers. Dimitris Mantzos of PASOK called for a detailed briefing on the agreements reached during Rubio’s visit.

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