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Schiller Institute forum warns Iran war risks global escalation and nuclear confrontation

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The Schiller Institute’s International Peace Coalition (IPC) convened its 145th weekly meeting on Friday amid intensifying conflict in Southwest Asia, with participants warning that the war involving Iran risks triggering a wider global confrontation and destabilizing the international order.

Speakers at the online forum, titled “Be Determined to Stop the Unthinkable!”, included Schiller Institute founder Helga Zepp-LaRouche, Iranian Ambassador to Mexico Mohammad Hassan Pasande, former Guyanese President Donald Ramotar, Catholic priest and peace activist Father Harry Bury, and several other analysts and campaigners. The discussion centered on the geopolitical and humanitarian consequences of the conflict, which participants described as one of the most dangerous crises in decades.

Moderating the event, Schiller Institute organizer Anastasia Battle opened the session by recalling the founding purpose of the International Peace Coalition. The forum, she said, was created “to unite the international peace movement to bring people together of many different philosophies, religions, nationalities, cultures in order to accomplish true peace in the world.”

Battle emphasized the need for dialogue among diverse viewpoints. “If we’re actually going to make this happen,” she said, “we have to have a dialogue process amongst each other, coordinate our activities and come to a higher truth amongst all of our friends, even if they’re friendly enemies.”

“We are now entering the third week of a war against Iran”

Opening the strategic discussion, Zepp-LaRouche described the ongoing hostilities as a dangerous turning point in global politics.

“We are now entering the third week of the war against Iran,” she said. “This is an unprovoked war of aggression.”

According to Zepp-LaRouche, the stated objective of regime change in Tehran had clearly failed. “The goal of regime change in Iran clearly has not been accomplished. There is no victory in sight.”

She pointed to intelligence assessments that had warned in advance that military action was unlikely to succeed. “There was a classified national intelligence report in the United States published a week before the 28th of February which stated that even a large-scale assault would not lead to regime change in Iran,” she said.

Despite such warnings, she argued, the decision to launch the attack was pushed forward by key figures in Washington. Zepp-LaRouche said US President Donald Trump himself indicated that he had been persuaded by advisers including Pete Hegseth, Marco Rubio, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner.

Rubio, she added, had publicly justified the strike with what she called “a completely strange logic.” According to Zepp-LaRouche, Rubio argued that because Israel was preparing to attack Iran and Tehran would retaliate, the United States therefore needed to launch a preemptive strike.

“So what is the situation?” Zepp-LaRouche asked. “We are in a complete strategic mess as a result.”

“We are plunging into a lawlessness where international law no longer exists”

Zepp-LaRouche warned that the conflict reflects a broader erosion of international norms.

“This is clearly a new phase,” she said. “The targeted elimination, through kidnappings or assassinations of elected leaders of state, is a sign of a plunge into lawlessness.”

She cited incidents including the alleged kidnapping of Venezuela’s President Nicolás Maduro and the assassination of Iran’s Supreme Leader, which she said symbolized the breakdown of the international legal order.

“We are plunging into a lawlessness where international law is officially declared non-existent anymore,” she said.

Zepp-LaRouche also warned that the military campaign could escalate rapidly if strategic bombing fails to achieve its objectives. She referred to an article by Atlantic Council adviser Harlan Ullman that suggested only nuclear weapons had historically forced surrender through bombing.

“He wrote that strategic bombing has never achieved its goal except once in history, with Hiroshima and Nagasaki,” she said. “And therefore, if Trump wants to force Iran to surrender, only nuclear weapons could produce that shock and awe.”

The implications, she warned, are catastrophic.

“That could have consequences for an escalation spiral in no time,” Zepp-LaRouche said. “The danger that we may end up with the extinction of humankind has never been as great as right now.”

“This war was a betrayal of diplomacy”

Iran’s ambassador to Mexico, Mohammad Hassan Pasande, told the forum that Tehran considers the conflict both illegal and unjustified.

“Since February 28, Iran has been the victim of an unfair and unequal war,” Pasande said.

“This war has crossed several human boundaries.”

Pasande said the attack occurred while negotiations were underway, calling it “a betrayal of diplomacy.”

“For the second time we were attacked in the middle of negotiations,” he said.

He argued that the military action violated the foundations of the post-World War II international system.

“It was a mockery of the Charter of the United Nations,” Pasande said. “The UN Charter was written after the deaths of tens of millions of people to prevent pointless wars.”

Instead of international law, he said, “force and power” had replaced diplomacy and multilateralism.

“It replaced multilateralism with unilateralism,” Pasande told participants.

“Iran has become a bastion of resistance”

Pasande warned that the outcome of the conflict could shape the global balance of power.

“Today Iran has become a bastion of resistance,” he said. “If Iran is also taken, resistance against coercion and unilateralism will collapse like a row of dominoes.”

He cautioned that other nations could face similar pressure if Iran were defeated.

“It is not clear who will be next after Iran,” Pasande said. “Mexico or China.”

Silence in the face of military aggression, he argued, would endanger the international community.

“Silence in the face of this aggression will make life more difficult for the people of the world.”

Pasande also criticized what he described as a dominance of hostile narratives against Iran.

“We had already become victims of narrative building before becoming victims of F-35 and B-2 warplanes,” he said.

“Iran is fighting for the survival of the Middle East”

Former Guyanese President Donald Ramotar expressed solidarity with Iran and praised the country’s resilience under attack.

“I would like to tell the people of Iran how much we admire their tenacity and the courage that they are showing in the face of this unprovoked attack,” Ramotar said.

He recalled earlier attacks on Iranian leadership figures, including the assassination of General Qassem Soleimani and the killings of Iranian scientists.

“I cannot think of another country that has faced such repeated attacks on its leadership,” he said.

Ramotar argued that the broader geopolitical objective was control of the Middle East.

“Iran is seen as the main obstacle to Israel controlling the entire Middle East,” he said. “It is also seen as the main obstacle to the United States controlling the resources in that region.”

For that reason, he said, Iran’s struggle has wider significance.

“Iran is fighting a battle not only for its own survival but for the struggle of the peoples of the whole Middle East.”

“Violence is not the answer to peace”

Catholic priest and long-time peace activist Father Harry Bury framed the crisis in moral and religious terms.

“Our hearts are breaking at what is happening to Iran,” Bury said. “The action of Israel and the United States attacking Iran is not only crazy, it is immoral.”

Drawing on Christian teachings, he rejected the idea that military force could achieve peace.

“Violence is not the answer to peace,” he said. “Violence has been an act of vengeance, not an act of love.”

Quoting the teachings of Jesus, he added: “We are to love our enemies. Bombing them is not a way of doing good.”

Bury urged participants to support a peace initiative promoted by the Schiller Institute, including an open letter addressed to Pope Leo XIV calling for religious leaders to intervene.

“The world must return to multilateralism”

In his closing remarks, Ambassador Pasande warned that the world risked repeating the mistakes that led to global war in the twentieth century.

“When unilateralism grows stronger, we remember what happened before the First and Second World Wars,” he said. “Nazism and fascism emerged, and almost 80 million people were killed.”

He argued that the principles established after World War II are now under threat.

“Today we see that the norms written into the United Nations Charter are not being respected,” Pasande said.

He also raised concerns about attacks on cultural heritage and civilian infrastructure during the conflict.

“Why should civilians have to breathe poisoned air from attacks on oil facilities?” he asked. “Why attack historical areas that belong to all humanity?”

Ultimately, he said, restoring peace requires rebuilding the international system around cooperation.

“What has been lost today in the world is peace,” Pasande said. “God has not created us to be in conflict and kill one another.”

“If we return to multilateralism, we will find a world that is more positive and beneficial for all.”

Diplomacy

Greece’s Marinakis says paying Hormuz transit fees beats enduring Red Sea shipping crisis detour

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Evangelos Marinakis, one of Greece’s leading shipowners, has announced that he is prepared to pay up to $200,000 per transit to keep the Strait of Hormuz open to civilian maritime traffic.

Speaking to the Financial Times, Marinakis stated that paying a transit fee would be a far better option for him than having the strait closed to navigation.

As the chairman of Capital Maritime Group, which controls a fleet of 185 vessels including approximately 35 tankers, Marinakis emphasized that shipowners have been forced to use alternative routes around the Cape of Good Hope for years due to attacks launched by the Houthis in the Red Sea, a detour that has generated substantial additional costs.

The Greek shipowner indicated that paying a transit fee of $100,000 or $200,000, depending on the size of the cargo or the vessel, is far more reasonable than enduring the current logistical challenges. He added that such payments could offset all the losses experienced so far.

Following US strikes on Iran and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the Tehran administration had introduced transit fees of up to $2 million for certain vessels transiting the waterway.

In May, Iran announced the establishment of a state agency tasked with managing the Strait of Hormuz. It was stated that the institution in question would provide real-time updates regarding maritime activities in the waterway.

Ebrahim Azizi, the chairman of the Iranian Parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy Commission, had noted that only commercial vessels and countries cooperating with Iran would be able to benefit from the facilities provided under this “professional mechanism.”

US President Donald Trump has explicitly opposed the imposition of transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz. In a statement on the matter, Trump said, “We want the strait to be open. We do not want any transit fees to be charged. This is an international waterway.”

On the other hand, the draft text of a planned 60-day ceasefire extension agreement between the parties stipulates that the Strait of Hormuz will remain open without any transit fees being demanded.

According to the draft details reviewed by Axios, the US in return commits to lifting the blockade it has imposed on Iranian ports. The Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, however, announced that the management of the Strait of Hormuz has been excluded from the scope of the agreement with the US, asserting that the issue will be addressed solely by littoral states.

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Pashinyan promises aid to farmers hit by Russian import restrictions

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Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has pledged compensation for Armenian farmers affected by restrictions on exports to Russia.

According to Sputnik Armenia, Pashinyan made the announcement during an election campaign meeting in the Gegharkunik region.

Speaking at the event, Pashinyan said the subsidies would be designed to offset losses incurred by producers.

The prime minister also acknowledged that some Armenian products had failed to meet required quality standards, adding that such companies would receive support aimed at improving product quality.

Addressing alternative markets for Armenian exports, Pashinyan said several Armenian business delegations were already engaged in negotiations abroad.

He added that Armenia had received offers for the purchase of roses as well as fresh fruits and vegetables.

Pashinyan argued that Armenia’s agricultural output was not particularly large, describing this as an advantage under current circumstances. According to the prime minister, “a respected supermarket chain in Europe” would be capable of selling the entire volume of these products on its own.

Russia’s Federal Service for Veterinary and Phytosanitary Surveillance (Rosselkhoznadzor) imposed temporary restrictions on imports of stone fruits and grapes from Armenia effective July 2.

The ban covers cherries, sour cherries, apricots, plums, peaches and nectarines, among other products.

On the same day, a temporary suspension was also introduced on certification procedures for live fish shipments from Armenia. Russian authorities had previously restricted the entry of flower products originating from Armenia into the Russian market.

In addition, Russia’s Federal Service for Surveillance on Consumer Rights Protection and Human Wellbeing (Rospotrebnadzor) halted the import of all consignments of Jermuk mineral water from Armenia.

In a statement, the agency said levels of bicarbonate, chloride and sulfate ions in the mineral water exceeded established limits and could mislead consumers regarding the product’s medicinal properties.

The Russian regulator argued that the growing number of violations stemmed from the abolition of Armenia’s Agriculture Ministry and the transfer of its responsibilities to the Economy Ministry.

Rosselkhoznadzor further stated that Armenia’s Economy Ministry was experiencing structural problems and was unable to adequately perform the supervisory functions assigned to it.

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Zelenskyy urges US to grant Ukraine license to produce Patriot missiles

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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he has asked the United States to grant Ukraine a license to manufacture missiles for the Patriot air defence system.

In a post on social media platform X, Zelenskyy argued that current US production of missile defence interceptors is insufficient and could contribute to crises in different parts of the world.

“Producing 60-65 missiles a month is nothing compared with the challenges we face today. This is no secret, and Russia knows it as well,” Zelenskyy wrote. “We need to expand production. As I requested from the previous US administration, I am asking the current administration to grant Ukraine a license to produce Patriot missiles.”

Zelenskyy said US companies possess advanced technologies that are not available in Ukraine, while Kyiv could contribute its extensive battlefield experience in return.

He also argued that granting such a license would benefit not only Ukraine, but also the Middle East and any country Washington chooses to support.

Washington pledges to maintain defence support

Zelenskyy’s remarks came a day after US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said on May 30 that Washington would continue supporting Ukraine’s defence capabilities and ensure military shipments to Kyiv continue.

“We want them to be able to defend themselves, and we will find a way to help them do that,” Hegseth said.

Several days earlier, Yuriy Ihnat, spokesperson for the Ukrainian Air Force, warned that the country’s air defence forces were experiencing a shortage of missiles.

“Due to certain supply problems, we are practically at starvation levels when it comes to missiles today,” Ihnat said.

Concerns persist over air defence missile stocks

In April, Zelenskyy warned that Ukraine’s stockpile of air defence missiles could be exhausted at any moment.

He said that under current conditions, air defence missiles were more critical for Ukraine than the air defence systems themselves.

Highlighting what he described as a critical shortage of Patriot missiles, Zelenskyy said: “We are facing a deficit now that could hardly be worse.”

Concerns that Ukraine could face a severe shortage of US-made air defence missiles had previously been reported by Reuters.

The situation was expected to worsen as the United States and its allies depleted significant portions of their arsenals during tensions with Iran, a point Zelenskyy also underscored.

In a separate statement in January, Zelenskyy said Ukraine lacked sufficient missiles for both US- and European-made air defence systems.

The Ukrainian leader said he had been forced to personally secure every package of missiles from European countries and the United States.

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