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Diplomacy

Schiller Institute forum warns Iran war risks global escalation and nuclear confrontation

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The Schiller Institute’s International Peace Coalition (IPC) convened its 145th weekly meeting on Friday amid intensifying conflict in Southwest Asia, with participants warning that the war involving Iran risks triggering a wider global confrontation and destabilizing the international order.

Speakers at the online forum, titled “Be Determined to Stop the Unthinkable!”, included Schiller Institute founder Helga Zepp-LaRouche, Iranian Ambassador to Mexico Mohammad Hassan Pasande, former Guyanese President Donald Ramotar, Catholic priest and peace activist Father Harry Bury, and several other analysts and campaigners. The discussion centered on the geopolitical and humanitarian consequences of the conflict, which participants described as one of the most dangerous crises in decades.

Moderating the event, Schiller Institute organizer Anastasia Battle opened the session by recalling the founding purpose of the International Peace Coalition. The forum, she said, was created “to unite the international peace movement to bring people together of many different philosophies, religions, nationalities, cultures in order to accomplish true peace in the world.”

Battle emphasized the need for dialogue among diverse viewpoints. “If we’re actually going to make this happen,” she said, “we have to have a dialogue process amongst each other, coordinate our activities and come to a higher truth amongst all of our friends, even if they’re friendly enemies.”

“We are now entering the third week of a war against Iran”

Opening the strategic discussion, Zepp-LaRouche described the ongoing hostilities as a dangerous turning point in global politics.

“We are now entering the third week of the war against Iran,” she said. “This is an unprovoked war of aggression.”

According to Zepp-LaRouche, the stated objective of regime change in Tehran had clearly failed. “The goal of regime change in Iran clearly has not been accomplished. There is no victory in sight.”

She pointed to intelligence assessments that had warned in advance that military action was unlikely to succeed. “There was a classified national intelligence report in the United States published a week before the 28th of February which stated that even a large-scale assault would not lead to regime change in Iran,” she said.

Despite such warnings, she argued, the decision to launch the attack was pushed forward by key figures in Washington. Zepp-LaRouche said US President Donald Trump himself indicated that he had been persuaded by advisers including Pete Hegseth, Marco Rubio, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner.

Rubio, she added, had publicly justified the strike with what she called “a completely strange logic.” According to Zepp-LaRouche, Rubio argued that because Israel was preparing to attack Iran and Tehran would retaliate, the United States therefore needed to launch a preemptive strike.

“So what is the situation?” Zepp-LaRouche asked. “We are in a complete strategic mess as a result.”

“We are plunging into a lawlessness where international law no longer exists”

Zepp-LaRouche warned that the conflict reflects a broader erosion of international norms.

“This is clearly a new phase,” she said. “The targeted elimination, through kidnappings or assassinations of elected leaders of state, is a sign of a plunge into lawlessness.”

She cited incidents including the alleged kidnapping of Venezuela’s President Nicolás Maduro and the assassination of Iran’s Supreme Leader, which she said symbolized the breakdown of the international legal order.

“We are plunging into a lawlessness where international law is officially declared non-existent anymore,” she said.

Zepp-LaRouche also warned that the military campaign could escalate rapidly if strategic bombing fails to achieve its objectives. She referred to an article by Atlantic Council adviser Harlan Ullman that suggested only nuclear weapons had historically forced surrender through bombing.

“He wrote that strategic bombing has never achieved its goal except once in history, with Hiroshima and Nagasaki,” she said. “And therefore, if Trump wants to force Iran to surrender, only nuclear weapons could produce that shock and awe.”

The implications, she warned, are catastrophic.

“That could have consequences for an escalation spiral in no time,” Zepp-LaRouche said. “The danger that we may end up with the extinction of humankind has never been as great as right now.”

“This war was a betrayal of diplomacy”

Iran’s ambassador to Mexico, Mohammad Hassan Pasande, told the forum that Tehran considers the conflict both illegal and unjustified.

“Since February 28, Iran has been the victim of an unfair and unequal war,” Pasande said.

“This war has crossed several human boundaries.”

Pasande said the attack occurred while negotiations were underway, calling it “a betrayal of diplomacy.”

“For the second time we were attacked in the middle of negotiations,” he said.

He argued that the military action violated the foundations of the post-World War II international system.

“It was a mockery of the Charter of the United Nations,” Pasande said. “The UN Charter was written after the deaths of tens of millions of people to prevent pointless wars.”

Instead of international law, he said, “force and power” had replaced diplomacy and multilateralism.

“It replaced multilateralism with unilateralism,” Pasande told participants.

“Iran has become a bastion of resistance”

Pasande warned that the outcome of the conflict could shape the global balance of power.

“Today Iran has become a bastion of resistance,” he said. “If Iran is also taken, resistance against coercion and unilateralism will collapse like a row of dominoes.”

He cautioned that other nations could face similar pressure if Iran were defeated.

“It is not clear who will be next after Iran,” Pasande said. “Mexico or China.”

Silence in the face of military aggression, he argued, would endanger the international community.

“Silence in the face of this aggression will make life more difficult for the people of the world.”

Pasande also criticized what he described as a dominance of hostile narratives against Iran.

“We had already become victims of narrative building before becoming victims of F-35 and B-2 warplanes,” he said.

“Iran is fighting for the survival of the Middle East”

Former Guyanese President Donald Ramotar expressed solidarity with Iran and praised the country’s resilience under attack.

“I would like to tell the people of Iran how much we admire their tenacity and the courage that they are showing in the face of this unprovoked attack,” Ramotar said.

He recalled earlier attacks on Iranian leadership figures, including the assassination of General Qassem Soleimani and the killings of Iranian scientists.

“I cannot think of another country that has faced such repeated attacks on its leadership,” he said.

Ramotar argued that the broader geopolitical objective was control of the Middle East.

“Iran is seen as the main obstacle to Israel controlling the entire Middle East,” he said. “It is also seen as the main obstacle to the United States controlling the resources in that region.”

For that reason, he said, Iran’s struggle has wider significance.

“Iran is fighting a battle not only for its own survival but for the struggle of the peoples of the whole Middle East.”

“Violence is not the answer to peace”

Catholic priest and long-time peace activist Father Harry Bury framed the crisis in moral and religious terms.

“Our hearts are breaking at what is happening to Iran,” Bury said. “The action of Israel and the United States attacking Iran is not only crazy, it is immoral.”

Drawing on Christian teachings, he rejected the idea that military force could achieve peace.

“Violence is not the answer to peace,” he said. “Violence has been an act of vengeance, not an act of love.”

Quoting the teachings of Jesus, he added: “We are to love our enemies. Bombing them is not a way of doing good.”

Bury urged participants to support a peace initiative promoted by the Schiller Institute, including an open letter addressed to Pope Leo XIV calling for religious leaders to intervene.

“The world must return to multilateralism”

In his closing remarks, Ambassador Pasande warned that the world risked repeating the mistakes that led to global war in the twentieth century.

“When unilateralism grows stronger, we remember what happened before the First and Second World Wars,” he said. “Nazism and fascism emerged, and almost 80 million people were killed.”

He argued that the principles established after World War II are now under threat.

“Today we see that the norms written into the United Nations Charter are not being respected,” Pasande said.

He also raised concerns about attacks on cultural heritage and civilian infrastructure during the conflict.

“Why should civilians have to breathe poisoned air from attacks on oil facilities?” he asked. “Why attack historical areas that belong to all humanity?”

Ultimately, he said, restoring peace requires rebuilding the international system around cooperation.

“What has been lost today in the world is peace,” Pasande said. “God has not created us to be in conflict and kill one another.”

“If we return to multilateralism, we will find a world that is more positive and beneficial for all.”

Diplomacy

Vance leads indirect push for US-Iran ceasefire and nuclear talks

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US Vice-President JD Vance has been personally involved over the past two weeks in indirect talks with Iran aimed at securing a fresh ceasefire and restarting nuclear negotiations.

According to Axios, Vance’s intense engagement indicates that he has taken it upon himself to extract the US from the conflict, which he views as responsible for the Republican Party’s shocking losses in this week’s elections.

This elevates the latest round of indirect talks to the highest echelons of the administration.

US officials and regional sources state that Trump is currently willing to let diplomatic efforts run their course to see whether any agreement is achievable.

Asked by reporters on Friday what his message was to Iran, Trump said, “We are talking to them.”

According to sources with direct knowledge of the matter, Vance speaks almost daily with Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, Pakistan’s Chief of Army Staff Field Marshal Asim Munir, and other mediators regarding the negotiations with Iran.

White House envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, President Trump’s adviser and son-in-law, are also involved in the process.

Sources say Vance and the Qatari and Pakistani mediators have been discussing the possibility of holding a working-level technical meeting between the US and Iran in the coming days, though this has not yet materialized.

Before the war began in late February, Vance was among the most sceptical voices in Trump’s inner circle on the issue, advocating instead for a diplomatic solution.

In April, he led the US negotiating delegation at the Iran summit held in Islamabad and was personally involved in the talks that yielded a memorandum of understanding (MOU) signed between the US and Iran in June.

Vance subsequently headed the US delegation during a series of direct talks with Iran in Switzerland.

Two weeks ago, Vance sent a letter to Mohsen Rezaei, Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, proposing that direct negotiations resume.

Rezaei is one of the closest advisers to Iran’s Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei.

Iranian officials noted that Vance’s letter generated positive momentum toward restarting talks.

On Wednesday, Vance said the war was the primary reason for the Republicans’ repudiation at the polls.

Sources involved in mediation efforts report that while progress is being made, the process is moving very slowly.

On Friday evening, the prime minister of Qatar said, “Over the past few weeks, we worked with our colleagues in the US administration who have a sincere intention to contain the situation and de-escalate. Thanks to them and the voices of reason in Tehran, we prevented the situation from spinning out of control.”

The prime minister added that discussions with the Trump administration continued following the midterm elections, though they were not as active as in previous days “because there are other matters.”

Nevertheless, he noted that the US intention to find a diplomatic resolution “remains ongoing” and emphasized that an agreement is possible.

On Friday morning, Trump and the Emir of Qatar discussed Qatari efforts to bridge differences between the US and Iran as part of an accord.

According to a statement from his office, Sheikh Tamim emphasized the necessity of “pursuing dialogue and diplomatic channels to resolve differences, prevent the region from facing further escalation, and ensure freedom of maritime navigation as well as the security of energy supplies.”

Separately, Trump confirmed on Friday that the US military conducted a strike on an anti-aircraft missile launcher on Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz after it fired a missile at a US fighter jet.

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Ukraine faces demographic collapse as fertility rates slide

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British magazine The Economist reported that mobilization, conflict casualties, and pervasive uncertainty have left Ukraine confronting the threat of demographic collapse.

According to data cited by the magazine, Ukraine’s fertility rate has declined from 1.2 children per woman in 2020 to between 0.8 and 0.9.

This rate marks a lower level than that of any major nation except South Korea.

In the first half of 2026, the number of deaths in Ukraine surpassed the number of newborn babies threefold.

The report noted that ever since independence was gained in 1991, the number of births in the country has lagged behind the number of deaths every year.

The Economist emphasized that the demographic collapse driven by the ongoing fighting constitutes an “existential threat.”

The magazine identified mass refugee migration as the principal driver of the population loss.

More than 5 million Ukrainians reside abroad, predominantly in Europe.

The proportion of those wishing to return among those who left the country is also steadily shrinking.

According to data from the Centre for Economic Strategy (CES), the share of those seeking to return dropped from 74% in 2022 to 43%.

The fact that the majority of refugees consist of Ukrainian children and women under the age of 44 further aggravates the demographic picture.

The Kyiv government decided to exempt men under the age of 25 from mobilization to alleviate the demographic decline.

The magazine reported, however, that many young people have fled the country, while those who remain do not plan to start families.

Projections cited in the report indicate that even if hostilities cease in the coming years, Ukraine can, at best, expect merely a deceleration of depopulation.

Olga Duhnich, an expert at the Ukraine-based think tank Frontier Institute, stated that the generation born in the 1990s and 2000s is the least populous in Ukraine’s modern history, meaning the country cannot expect a post-conflict baby boom.

The United Nations (UN) projects that Ukraine’s population will decline by 0.7% to 0.9% each year over the next two decades.

Under this projection, Ukraine’s population will fall to approximately 25 million by 2040.

If hostilities drag on, people are expected to abandon plans to have children, deepening the crisis even further.

Beyond exempting men under 25 from mobilization, the Kyiv government is rolling out various support packages to boost birth rates.

Under legislation enacted in the country, parents who have children receive a direct payment of 50,000 hryvnias (around $1,100).

Parents are also paid 7,000 hryvnias each month during the first year.

Other state programmes subsidize childcare costs, while Ukrainian soldiers are granted free freezing of egg and sperm cells.

Ukrainian Minister of Social Policy Denis Ulyutin said in May to the Livyi Bereh media outlet that roughly 22 to 25 million people lived in government-controlled territories.

Ulyutin characterized the prevailing picture by saying: “This is a catastrophe.”

Ella Libanova, Director of the Institute for Demography and Quality of Life Research, estimated the population at 29 million during the same period.

Libanova attributed the steep fall from a population of 30 million in 2025 to high death rates and the demographic crisis.

In a statement in October, Libanova announced that Ukraine’s population had slipped to 28.5 million.

Institute Director Libanova said: “The population is already at 28.5 million; we lost half a million people. We lost them, but thankfully this was still caused by migration rather than casualties.”

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Armenian opposition urged to form joint front against constitution

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Narek Karapetyan, a lawmaker and head of the Strong Armenia faction in the Armenian parliament, has urged opposition parties to unite around four core principles set out in a joint declaration.

The key points of the declaration include resisting territorial concessions and blocking the adoption of a new constitution, which the opposition has termed the “Aliyev constitution”.

According to a report by Aysor.am, Narek Karapetyan stated that the opposition meeting was originally planned to be led by his uncle, businessman and Strong Armenia movement leader Samvel Karapetyan.

“We initiated the meeting, but the authorities took preemptive steps to prevent Samvel Karapetyan from launching the national unification process,” Narek Karapetyan said.

Noting that, despite these events, opposition representatives convened and signed a joint declaration based on four agreed articles, Narek Karapetyan invited other opposition forces and members of the public to join the alliance.

“We will not allow them to implement the Aliyev constitution in Armenia. We must unite,” Karapetyan said.

Ahead of these developments, Armenian National Security Service personnel detained Strong Armenia Party leader Samvel Karapetyan following a search of his home.

The party’s press secretary, Agavni Sukiasyan, announced that on the morning of the same day, the Investigative Committee of Armenia searched the homes of both Samvel Karapetyan and Narek Karapetyan.

In a report citing the Investigative Committee, Armenpress stated that Samvel Karapetyan was detained as part of a case involving allegations of causing large-scale financial damage to the Electric Networks of Armenia (ENA) company, embezzling entrusted property, and money laundering.

According to committee figures, the total damage inflicted on the company exceeds $179 million.

Narek Karapetyan’s home was also searched at the end of July as part of a criminal case.

On 22 July, Armenia’s Central Electoral Commission approved the Prosecutor General’s request to strip Narek Karapetyan of his parliamentary immunity, and Karapetyan was charged with large-scale money laundering.

According to information reported by Sputnik Armenia, the investigation is linked to charges brought against Strong Armenia supporter Aleksan Aleksanyan.

Investigative authorities allege that Aleksanyan received approximately $4.4 million and €230,000 from the Karapetyan-owned Tashir Foundation under the guise of gifts and loans.

Several criminal cases had previously been opened against Samvel Karapetyan.

In 2025, Karapetyan was charged with publicly calling for the violent seizure of power after backing the Armenian Apostolic Church, which had been criticized by Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan.

In January, legal proceedings were also launched against Karapetyan on charges of large-scale tax evasion and money laundering.

Separately, in early July 2025, the Armenian parliament approved a bill enabling the nationalization of the Electric Networks of Armenia company.

In March, Armenia’s Constitutional Court ruled that the nationalization process in question complied with the law.

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