According to four government officials, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government has decided to suspend a $23 billion program aimed at boosting domestic manufacturing, just four years after launching an effort to lure companies away from China with US support.

Two of the officials, speaking to Reuters, said that the program would not be expanded beyond the 14 pilot sectors, and production timelines would not be extended, despite requests from some participating firms.

According to public records, approximately 750 companies, including Apple supplier Foxconn and Indian conglomerate Reliance Industries, enrolled in the Production Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme.

These firms were promised cash payments if they met individual production targets and deadlines. The goal was to increase manufacturing’s share of the economy to 25% by 2025.

However, according to government documents and correspondence reviewed by Reuters, many firms participating in the program failed to begin production, while others that met production targets found that India was slow to pay the subsidies.

According to an undated analysis of the program compiled by the trade ministry, as of October 2024, participating firms had produced $151.93 billion worth of goods under the program, or 37% of Delhi’s target. The document stated that India had disbursed only $1.73 billion in incentives, less than 8% of the allocated funds.

Reuters was the first to report the news of the government’s decision not to extend the plan and the details regarding the delays in payments.

Modi’s office and the trade ministry, which oversees the program, did not respond to requests for comment. Since the plan was implemented, the manufacturing industry’s share of the economy has decreased from 15.4% to 14.3%.

Foxconn and Reliance, which currently employ thousands of contract workers in India, did not return requests for comment.

Two government officials told Reuters that the termination of the program does not mean that Delhi has abandoned its manufacturing goals, and that alternatives are being planned.

The government had defended the program last year, particularly highlighting its impact on boosting pharmaceutical and mobile phone production. Approximately $620 million, or 94%, of the incentives paid between April and October 2024 were directed to these two sectors.

According to the analysis, some food sector companies that applied for subsidies were not granted incentives due to factors such as “non-compliance with investment thresholds” and the companies’ “failure to achieve the projected minimum growth.” While the document did not provide details, it noted that production in the sector had exceeded targets.

One Indian official, speaking to Reuters on condition of anonymity, said that excessive bureaucracy and bureaucratic caution continue to hinder the program’s effectiveness.

Another official said that India is considering supporting specific sectors by partially reimbursing investments made to establish facilities, allowing firms to recover their costs more quickly rather than waiting for production and sales.

Biswajit Dhar, a trade expert at the Council for Social Development, a Delhi-based think tank, said that the country may have missed an opportunity.

Dhar emphasized that the incentive program was “probably the last chance we had to revitalize our manufacturing sector.” He questioned, “If this kind of mega program fails, do you have any expectation that anything will succeed?”

The halt in production coincides with a period when India was trying to navigate the trade war initiated by US President Donald Trump, who criticized Delhi’s protectionist policies.

Dhar said that Trump’s threat of reciprocal tariffs on countries with trade surpluses with the US, such as India, meant that the export sector was becoming increasingly strained. “There was some tariff protection… and all of that will be cut.”

The program was initially launched with US support during a period when China, which has been the world’s factory base for decades, was struggling to maintain production due to its zero-COVID policy.

As the US seeks to reduce its economic dependence on an increasingly assertive Beijing, it has pushed many multinational companies to diversify their production lines and supply chains.

With its large young population, low costs, and a government considered relatively friendly to the West, India seemed poised to benefit from this situation.

In recent years, India has become a global leader in pharmaceutical and mobile phone production.

According to government data, the country produced $49 billion worth of mobile phones in the 2023-24 fiscal year, a 63% increase compared to 2020-21. Industry leaders like Apple, which started with low-cost models, now aim to produce their latest and most sophisticated mobile phones in India as well.

Similarly, pharmaceutical exports nearly doubled in the 2023-24 period compared to a decade earlier, reaching $27.85 billion.

However, this success has not been replicated in other sectors, including steel, textiles, and solar panel production. In many of these areas, India faces fierce competition from rivals like China. According to experts, India currently lacks sufficient systemic and technical infrastructure and trained manpower to carry out this production, and this process may take decades.

Beside hidden US and the Afghanistan Taliban engagement in Doha from the last two years, the first ever direct encounter of a high powered US team with Taliban officials in Kabul seems to be initiatives of another round of politico-strategical battling going on in the region since early 70’s. 

The new multiple faced US-Afghan relationships might have bothered Islamabad political and military establishment towards new engagement in Kabul but the outcomes or purposes might be against its ambitions, which is forcing Taliban to toe its lines on both internal and external issues especially Durand Line and Kabul’s links with India. It was the first ever open direct talk between Washington and Kabul since August 15th 2021, when the latter fell into hands of Taliban in accordance with Doha Qatar agreement.

The day-long but highly secret visit of the US team headed by Ambassador Adam Boehlar concluded with release and air lifting of George Glezmann, an American airline mechanic to the United States via Qatar Doha. The meeting at Kabul is the outcome of the highest level contacts between the two countries mediated by no other than Qatar, UAE since the empowering of Donald Trump on January 20th 2025 last. Besides others, the famous Zalmay Khalilzad was part of the delegation. War times events since the 1970s reveals that whenever Zalmay Khalilzad appears on media and diplomatic fora’s, it leads to changes and reshuffling in Afghanistan.

Similarly with the return of Donald Trump into power after a break of four years, the hostilities between Washington and Moscow are also melting

Though the United States has been working on Afghan fronts since completion of Afghanistan’s second Presidential Polls in 2009 without Pakistan but the Thursday engaging Kabul seems much more ironic for the high ups at Rawalpindi-Islamabad looking after changes, reshuffling, violence, terror, internal rifts and hostilities amongst perks and power thirsty self styled amirs, leaders, generals and chieftains on west side of infamous Durand Line since a long. It is crystal clear that compared to the 60’s and 70’s when the US  was healing the wounds of Vietnam defeat, the present day situation is totally different. Earlier US lead allies had depended on all of its strategies and intentions in Pakistan’s immediate neighbouring country of Afghanistan which was under influence of the now disintegrated USSR. Now Pakistan has no role in Afghanistan due to its flopped policies. Similarly with the return of Donald Trump into US power corridors after a break of four years, the hostilities between Washington and Moscow are also melting. 

Prior to the release of Mr. Glezmann, after taking over from Donald Trump in January, two other Americans Ryan Corbett and William Wallace Mckenty were released from Afghanistan in exchange for an Afghan imprisoned in Kabul. The Afghan national Khan Muhammad was a lifetime convicted on drug trafficking charges and considered financer of Taliban during war on terror. The US Secretary of State’s Marco Rubio says, “Glezmann’s release was also a reminder that other Americans are still detained in Afghanistan.”

Afghanistan’s foreign ministry on its X page added the deal showed, “Afghanistan’s readiness to genuinely engage all sides, particularly the United States of America, on the basis of mutual respect and interests.” Similar scenes are intentions of the US high ups who visited Kabul along with their facilitators from Qatar have time and again thanked Taliban officials for ordering release of Mr. Glezmann.

Donald Trump’s changing ideas towards one time for the Russian Federation and Emirate Islami Afghanistan would pose both positive and negative impacts on global politics

No one can deny the fact that US President Donald Trump’s changing ideas towards one time for the Russian Federation and Emirate Islami Afghanistan would pose both positive and negative impacts on global politics, especially the Asian Region where the US is still working on multiple options for strengthening its influence. Earlier Pakistan remained compulsion of United States for tackling one-time considered bigger threats of Socialists and Communist ideologies. And now apparently US muscling to combat Chinese economic growth and influencing of world trade markets. Previous couple of decades strategic-diplomatic episodes are very clear where Chinese avoiding confrontations and preferring policies of reconciliations, dialogues and even give and takes.

Issue of Pakistan is quite different as its effective military establishment still following Bhutto-Zia inherited strategic depth policies. Pakistan’s relations with almost neighbouring countries are lacking trust and sincerity. Both India and Afghanistan have already been declared as “enemies” whereas Iran is on the list of GRAY neighbours. Due to long association and partnership with US lead allies, China is also lacking trust in Pakistan. Almost all think tanks in the United States and its allies are considering religious extremism and terrorist a serious threat to global peace. All are clear that religious terrorism and extremism has deep roots in border regions of both Pakistan and Afghanistan. Zalmay Khalilzad is known for his secret extensions and designs therefore his brief but surprising tour to Kabul is generating stock of questions.

China is increasing state support for the exploration of domestic mines amid intensifying competition with the US.

According to an analysis by the Financial Times based on official announcements, at least half of China’s 34 provincial-level governments, including resource-rich regions such as Xinjiang, announced increased subsidies or expanded access for mineral exploration last year.

The increase in funding comes as control over the world’s strategic minerals emerges as a flashpoint between the US and China. The two superpowers are competing for resources needed for advanced technologies such as semiconductors, electric vehicles, robotics, and missiles.

“A series of major breakthroughs have been made in mineral exploration, significantly enhancing the ability to ensure the security of key industrial and supply chains and respond to external environmental uncertainties,” Xiong Zili, director of the geological exploration and management department of the Chinese Ministry of Natural Resources, told reporters this year.

He added that the new mineral exploration plan focuses on increasing domestic energy resources and “strategic” minerals.

China is the world’s largest producer of 30 of the 44 critical minerals tracked by the US Geological Survey.

Seeking to break Beijing’s dominance over the sector, US President Donald Trump has prioritized domestic mining, as well as access to critical minerals abroad, including in Greenland, Ukraine, and the Democratic Republic of Congo, since returning to the White House in January.

Xi Jinping has focused on China’s self-reliance in science and technology and developing its ability to be self-sufficient since becoming the leader of the ruling Chinese Communist Party in 2012.

This effort has become even more imperative amid escalating tensions with the US, and Xi has turned to strengthening supply chains and prioritizing advanced manufacturing and newly emerging high technologies.

Beijing’s mineral supply chains are a critical geopolitical leverage point in the trade and technology war with the US. The government has allocated more than 100 billion RMB ($13.8 billion) annually to geological exploration investments since 2022, marking the highest three-year period in the last decade.

Last year, China also tightened controls over the export of strategic minerals, including gallium, germanium, antimony, graphite, and tungsten, many of which are vital for chip manufacturing, in response to US restrictions on technology exports to China.

Cory Combs, deputy director at the Beijing-based consultancy Trivium China, said that China provides subsidies, tax incentives, and other forms of support to the domestic mining sector “independently” of commodity market cycles.

“From a market perspective, this is extravagance,” Combs told the Financial Times. “But in terms of political and economic security, it is not at all extravagant; it is worth the cost. According to Beijing, money is not the only goal.”