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Strong yuan tests Chinese export giants as BYD and Sany report FX losses

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The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the yuan’s exchange rate against the US dollar at its strongest level in more than three years on Thursday, a move that reinforces Beijing’s ambitions to internationalize the currency but threatens to squeeze the profit margins of the country’s industrial export giants.

The PBOC fixed the yuan’s midpoint rate—the central reference point for daily onshore trading—at 6.8487 per US dollar, the firmest level since April 2023. The fixing followed Wednesday’s reference rate of 6.8562.

The appreciation comes as Beijing maintains its drive to increase the yuan’s global footprint while international confidence in US dollar-denominated assets continues to fluctuate. Analysts expect the Chinese currency to maintain its upward trajectory in the coming months, potentially reaching 6.65 per US dollar by year-end, even as the rally creates headwinds for China’s massive export sector.

The yuan’s rise coincides with a period of sustained pressure on the US dollar. Investors have grown increasingly cautious amid policy uncertainty in Washington, questions regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve, and concerns over the long-term fiscal sustainability of the US. The US dollar index stood at 97.97 on Wednesday, a sharp decline from 119.61 at the start of the year.

While Thursday’s fix marks a significant milestone, Serena Zhou, senior China strategist at Mizuho Securities Asia, told the South China Morning Post that markets were not caught off guard by the move.

“Today’s fixing reflects an improvement in Asian market sentiment, largely supported by developments in the Middle East,” Zhou said. “Expectations that the US and Iran may be nearing a peace agreement have lifted equities and bolstered confidence in the yuan.”

Zhou forecasts the yuan will reach 6.80 per US dollar this quarter before strengthening to 6.65 by the end of the year. “Beijing’s policy objectives of rebalancing trade and stimulating domestic consumption are generally aligned with a gradually strengthening currency,” she added.

The exchange rate is expected to be a key item on the agenda during a projected mid-May summit in Beijing between Chinese President Xi Jinping and US President Donald Trump. The US leader has previously accused Beijing of maintaining a “weak” currency to gain an unfair trade advantage—a claim the PBOC governor rejected during a meeting in March.

Concurrently, Beijing is accelerating efforts to promote the cross-border use of the yuan as an alternative to the dollar-based financial system amid intensifying discussions over global “de-dollarization.” In April, the United Arab Emirates signaled it could conduct oil transactions in yuan should US dollar supplies be disrupted.

Data from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) this month showed the yuan’s share of global foreign exchange transactions has climbed to 8.8% from just 2% in 2013. The Chinese currency now ranks third globally in cross-border trade payments, with a share exceeding 7%.

On the monetary policy front, the US Federal Reserve held interest rates steady for the third consecutive meeting on April 29, maintaining the federal funds rate between 3.5% and 3.75%. Markets have priced in no further rate changes until at least the start of 2027. Meanwhile, Kevin Warsh, Trump’s nominee to succeed Fed Chair Jerome Powell, is expected to be confirmed by the Senate as early as next week.

The yuan has appreciated by a total of 2.64% against the US dollar so far this year. “Exporters are becoming increasingly willing to convert their US dollar holdings back into yuan as expectations for further appreciation grow,” Zhou noted. “This shift in conversion behavior is providing additional self-sustaining support for the currency.”

Despite the currency’s rise, China’s export engine has remained resilient. Customs data shows that exports grew 11.9% year-on-year in the first quarter. In a January report, Soochow Securities argued that the impact of a strong yuan on export competitiveness may be more limited than widely assumed, as Chinese exporters increasingly rely on technological sophistication rather than simple price advantages.

The report also noted that the rising use of the yuan in cross-border settlements has made Chinese firms less sensitive to exchange rate volatility.

Nevertheless, foreign exchange losses have emerged as a significant drag on the earnings of several prominent Chinese corporations in recent months, renewing pressure on businesses to enhance currency risk management.

Chinese electric vehicle leader BYD reported a reversal from a 1.9 billion yuan ($279 million) foreign exchange gain in the first quarter of 2025 to a 2.1 billion yuan loss in the first quarter of this year. This represents a 4 billion yuan swing that weighed heavily on net profits.

Eoptolink, a manufacturer of optical modules, saw its financing expenses surge 1,678% year-on-year to 522 million yuan, driven largely by exchange rate losses. Construction equipment giant Sany Heavy Industry also recorded approximately 800 million yuan in currency-related losses during the first quarter.

“Major exporters typically hedge against large currency moves through forward contracts and options,” Zhou said. “The actual impact is often more manageable than headline figures suggest.”

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South Korea emerges as major beneficiary of shifts in global arms market

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Uncertainty in the global arms market, driven by the United States reassessing its relationships with allies and a broad rearmament drive across many countries, is creating major commercial opportunities for South Korea. According to an analysis published by Politico, Seoul has become the world’s fastest-growing supplier of military equipment.

The report said that large-scale conflicts around the world have created urgent demand for weapons as countries seek both to support allies and strengthen their own defenses against potential future confrontations. At the same time, changes in the US role within the global arms market have opened new opportunities for South Korean manufacturers. Statements and policy decisions by US President Donald Trump regarding NATO have led allies to question Washington’s reliability in times of crisis, increasing uncertainty across the global market. In addition, the diversion of a large share of US weapons supplies to the Middle East because of ongoing conflicts has placed further strain on already overstretched supply chains.

European countries increase purchases from South Korea

Faced with what Politico described as the Trump administration’s more distant approach toward allies, European countries in particular have accelerated arms purchases from South Korea. The publication noted that Seoul’s growing influence as a supplier has been driven largely by major defense contracts signed with Poland.

Following the outbreak of the conflict in Ukraine, several Eastern European capitals, including Warsaw, transferred portions of their military inventories to Kyiv, relying on German support to replenish their arsenals. However, Berlin’s slow pace in replacing allied stockpiles generated frustration across the region.

South Korea emerged as an alternative supplier during this period and became a reliable source of military equipment for Eastern European countries. Poland became Seoul’s largest customer through a $13.7 billion agreement covering the purchase of tanks, rocket launchers, self-propelled howitzers and other military equipment.

“We were originally preparing against North Korea, but now we are ready to provide these solutions to customers around the world,” said Choo Hyung-kim, head of the Security Management Institute, a defense analysis organization affiliated with South Korea’s National Assembly.

Lack of political baggage gives Seoul an advantage

Politico reported that one of the greatest advantages enjoyed by South Korean defense companies is the absence of the “political baggage” associated with major arms exporters such as the United States, China, Russia and Israel.

According to the figures cited, the combined projected revenue of South Korea’s largest defense companies, including Hanwha Group, Hyundai Rotem, LIG Nex1 and Korea Aerospace Industries, is expected to reach approximately $37 billion in 2026. That would represent a fourfold increase from their combined revenues in 2021.

Meanwhile, an official from the office of former South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol told the Yonhap news agency in 2024 that the scale of any weapons shipments to Ukraine would depend on Russia’s approach to its relationship with North Korea. Seoul later clarified that it had no plans to provide ammunition directly to Ukraine.

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DeepSeek raises $7.4 billion in funding round, surpasses $50 billion valuation

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Chinese artificial intelligence startup DeepSeek has raised more than 50 billion yuan ($7.4 billion) in its first funding round. According to Reuters, citing The Information, the company’s valuation has surpassed $50 billion.

The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported that the capital will be used to support the costly development of advanced artificial intelligence technologies.

According to the newspaper, citing sources familiar with the matter, investors valued the company at more than $50 billion. The valuation makes DeepSeek the most valuable AI startup in China.

DeepSeek founder Liang Wenfeng reportedly owned about 90% of the company before the funding round. Liang is said to have contributed roughly $3 billion during the fundraising process, making him the largest participant in the round.

According to Reuters, the transaction was structured in an unusual way that allows Liang to retain control of the company.

Rather than investing directly in DeepSeek, investors were required to invest through a limited partnership managed by a senior executive of the startup. Under the arrangement, investors were not granted voting rights. The report also said restrictions were placed on the use of invested funds for a period of five years.

The sole exception was the China National Artificial Intelligence Industry Investment Fund. The fund reportedly invested approximately $150 million directly in DeepSeek, allowing it to retain both voting rights and full discretion over its stake.

Other major investors in the funding round included Tencent, which invested approximately $1.5 billion, and Contemporary Amperex Technology, which invested about $740 million.

Bloomberg previously described the transaction as one of the largest fundraising rounds undertaken by a Chinese startup. According to the agency, the investment marks a new stage in the efforts of leading Chinese AI companies to compete with their US rivals.

DeepSeek told prospective investors that it would prioritize foundational and transformative AI research over short-term commercialization.

Based in the Chinese city of Hangzhou, DeepSeek emerged as one of Beijing’s most prominent AI companies after unveiling a more powerful and lower-cost model more than a year ago. The WSJ reported that interest surrounding the company has accelerated AI adoption in China and increased investor appetite for domestic startups.

Liang Wenfeng has previously said he intends to continue developing open-source AI models and ultimately aims to achieve artificial general intelligence (AGI). According to Bloomberg, the strategy continues an approach that has contributed to the spread of open models and influenced companies across China’s AI market, including Alibaba’s Qwen platform.

Bloomberg added that while global rivals such as OpenAI and Anthropic are exploring public offerings and revenue-generation strategies, DeepSeek has maintained its “research first” approach.

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China issues white paper on global governance reform, urging support for UN-centered international system

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China’s State Council Information Office on Wednesday released a white paper titled “A More Just and Equitable Global Governance: China’s Principles, Proposals and Actions.”

The white paper was issued to introduce China’s principles, proposals, and actions regarding global governance, to foster a broader consensus within the international community, to enable more effective responses to global challenges, and to build a more just and equitable global governance system.

The document states that global governance is a common endeavor concerning the well-being of all humanity, and that building a just and equitable global governance system is a shared vision long pursued by people around the world. It also emphasizes that China has always been an active participant, contributor, and builder of global governance.

According to the white paper, in the new era, Chinese President Xi Jinping has put forward the vision of building a community with a shared future for mankind. Advancing a global governance system shaped on the basis of extensive consultation, joint contribution, and shared benefits, Xi has called for true multilateralism to promote an equal and orderly multipolar world and an economic globalization that is inclusive and beneficial for all.

In 2025, Xi proposed the Global Governance Initiative (GGI). This initiative was designed to offer China’s solutions to two urgent questions of the era: What kind of global governance system should be established, and how should global governance be reformed and improved?

The white paper notes that shortly after its introduction, the GGI received support from approximately 160 countries and international organizations, with more than 60 countries joining the Group of Friends of the Global Governance Initiative. It states that the international community is of the view that the GGI sends a clear message: to defend multilateralism, join forces, and strive for a just future.

According to the white paper, the GGI aligns with the growing trend toward greater democracy in international relations and strengthens international confidence in the practice of multilateralism. The initiative provides a clear and actionable roadmap for the improvement of global governance, injecting valuable stability and positive energy into a turbulent world.

The white paper emphasizes that China proposed the GGI to accelerate the construction of a more just and equitable global governance system. The document states that firmly defending the authority and status of the United Nations is of fundamental importance for the effective implementation of this initiative.

According to the white paper, success will also depend on major countries acting with a sense of responsibility and all nations working together in unity to bridge deficits in peace and development. It states that rather than attempting to reinvent the wheel, all countries must firmly defend the international system with the UN at its core, maintain the international order based on international law, and uphold the fundamental norms of international relations based on the purposes and principles of the UN Charter.

In addition to the preface and conclusion, the white paper consists of five chapters: “Today’s World Faces Severe and Complex Challenges,” “The Global Governance Initiative Responds to the Challenges of Our Era,” “China’s Contribution to the Development of Global Governance,” “Directing the Course of Change Toward a Bright Future,” and “Advancing Hand in Hand at a Critical Juncture in History.”

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