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Strong yuan tests Chinese export giants as BYD and Sany report FX losses

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The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the yuan’s exchange rate against the US dollar at its strongest level in more than three years on Thursday, a move that reinforces Beijing’s ambitions to internationalize the currency but threatens to squeeze the profit margins of the country’s industrial export giants.

The PBOC fixed the yuan’s midpoint rate—the central reference point for daily onshore trading—at 6.8487 per US dollar, the firmest level since April 2023. The fixing followed Wednesday’s reference rate of 6.8562.

The appreciation comes as Beijing maintains its drive to increase the yuan’s global footprint while international confidence in US dollar-denominated assets continues to fluctuate. Analysts expect the Chinese currency to maintain its upward trajectory in the coming months, potentially reaching 6.65 per US dollar by year-end, even as the rally creates headwinds for China’s massive export sector.

The yuan’s rise coincides with a period of sustained pressure on the US dollar. Investors have grown increasingly cautious amid policy uncertainty in Washington, questions regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve, and concerns over the long-term fiscal sustainability of the US. The US dollar index stood at 97.97 on Wednesday, a sharp decline from 119.61 at the start of the year.

While Thursday’s fix marks a significant milestone, Serena Zhou, senior China strategist at Mizuho Securities Asia, told the South China Morning Post that markets were not caught off guard by the move.

“Today’s fixing reflects an improvement in Asian market sentiment, largely supported by developments in the Middle East,” Zhou said. “Expectations that the US and Iran may be nearing a peace agreement have lifted equities and bolstered confidence in the yuan.”

Zhou forecasts the yuan will reach 6.80 per US dollar this quarter before strengthening to 6.65 by the end of the year. “Beijing’s policy objectives of rebalancing trade and stimulating domestic consumption are generally aligned with a gradually strengthening currency,” she added.

The exchange rate is expected to be a key item on the agenda during a projected mid-May summit in Beijing between Chinese President Xi Jinping and US President Donald Trump. The US leader has previously accused Beijing of maintaining a “weak” currency to gain an unfair trade advantage—a claim the PBOC governor rejected during a meeting in March.

Concurrently, Beijing is accelerating efforts to promote the cross-border use of the yuan as an alternative to the dollar-based financial system amid intensifying discussions over global “de-dollarization.” In April, the United Arab Emirates signaled it could conduct oil transactions in yuan should US dollar supplies be disrupted.

Data from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) this month showed the yuan’s share of global foreign exchange transactions has climbed to 8.8% from just 2% in 2013. The Chinese currency now ranks third globally in cross-border trade payments, with a share exceeding 7%.

On the monetary policy front, the US Federal Reserve held interest rates steady for the third consecutive meeting on April 29, maintaining the federal funds rate between 3.5% and 3.75%. Markets have priced in no further rate changes until at least the start of 2027. Meanwhile, Kevin Warsh, Trump’s nominee to succeed Fed Chair Jerome Powell, is expected to be confirmed by the Senate as early as next week.

The yuan has appreciated by a total of 2.64% against the US dollar so far this year. “Exporters are becoming increasingly willing to convert their US dollar holdings back into yuan as expectations for further appreciation grow,” Zhou noted. “This shift in conversion behavior is providing additional self-sustaining support for the currency.”

Despite the currency’s rise, China’s export engine has remained resilient. Customs data shows that exports grew 11.9% year-on-year in the first quarter. In a January report, Soochow Securities argued that the impact of a strong yuan on export competitiveness may be more limited than widely assumed, as Chinese exporters increasingly rely on technological sophistication rather than simple price advantages.

The report also noted that the rising use of the yuan in cross-border settlements has made Chinese firms less sensitive to exchange rate volatility.

Nevertheless, foreign exchange losses have emerged as a significant drag on the earnings of several prominent Chinese corporations in recent months, renewing pressure on businesses to enhance currency risk management.

Chinese electric vehicle leader BYD reported a reversal from a 1.9 billion yuan ($279 million) foreign exchange gain in the first quarter of 2025 to a 2.1 billion yuan loss in the first quarter of this year. This represents a 4 billion yuan swing that weighed heavily on net profits.

Eoptolink, a manufacturer of optical modules, saw its financing expenses surge 1,678% year-on-year to 522 million yuan, driven largely by exchange rate losses. Construction equipment giant Sany Heavy Industry also recorded approximately 800 million yuan in currency-related losses during the first quarter.

“Major exporters typically hedge against large currency moves through forward contracts and options,” Zhou said. “The actual impact is often more manageable than headline figures suggest.”

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Pentagon plans covert spy ring for economic war on China, report says

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The US Department of War (Pentagon) is reportedly planning to establish an extensive network of deep-cover agents to wage economic warfare against China and other adversaries of the US.

According to a report by The Washington Post citing six sources familiar with the initiative, the plan has not yet been put into effect. The newspaper reported that the initiative remains at the planning stage. The Pentagon, however, denies that any such initiative exists.

The report said the operatives would pose as entrepreneurs or private sector employees while concealing their ties to the US government. The network’s mission would be to gather economic intelligence and counter China.

The programme is led by Tom Rakusa, who spent 39 years at the CIA. Rakusa serves as a senior adviser to Deputy Secretary of Defence Steve Feinberg.

The proposed spy network is seen as part of a broader policy by the Donald Trump administration to sharpen economic competition with other countries.

The US is already resorting to tariffs, export controls, and investment in strategic sectors, alongside expanding its economic intelligence gathering.

According to The Washington Post, the new initiative demonstrates the Pentagon’s growing influence under the Trump administration. The department is currently seeking a record budget of $1.5 trillion.

Trade war flares up again with Trump’s return to the White House

The trade friction between the US and China flared up again following Donald Trump’s return to the White House. In April 2025, Washington raised tariffs on Chinese goods to as much as 145%, and Beijing retaliated with tariffs of up to 125%.

In May, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio described China as the primary geopolitical challenge facing Washington. Rubio said that to avoid war, the two sides needed to manage their conflict of interests.

In July, Chinese expert Zheng Yongnian did not simply warn that underestimating the US could prove to be a “fatal mistake”; he stated it explicitly.

According to Zheng’s assessment, the US maintains its primacy through the role of the dollar, its military superiority, and its technological advantages.

Even so, the two sides agreed in June to declare a truce and lower tariffs. In autumn 2026, the US and China extended their trade truce until 10 January 2027.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the extension would give the parties more time to discuss economic issues.

Trade deals do not eliminate the strategic contradictions between the two countries. Financial Times columnist Rana Foroohar likened the race between the two nations for commercial, technological, and geopolitical influence to the 19th-century “Great Game” between the Russian and British empires.

Foroohar cited China’s standing in shipbuilding and commercial maritime transport, as well as its expanding footprint in overseas ports, among its key advantages.

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Japan plans curbs on short-term home sales to cool urban prices

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Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) plans to restrict short-term property trading to rein in surging home prices in major urban centres, particularly Tokyo.

Led by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, the party aims to make support for working households a core priority ahead of local elections scheduled for April next year.

The LDP’s research commission on housing and land policy met on Wednesday to discuss the issue.

According to a report by the Nikkei Asia newspaper, Commission Chair and LDP lawmaker Midori Matsushima said at the opening of the meeting: “Prices of newly built condominiums across Tokyo’s 23 wards have doubled over the past decade. We must work on measures ensuring that people who wish to live in these homes can actually afford to buy them.”

Homeownership in the capital has become virtually unattainable for broad segments of the population. According to data from the Real Estate Economic Institute, the average sale price of a newly built condominium in Tokyo’s 23 wards rose %18.5 in fiscal 2025 compared with the previous year, reaching 137.84 million yen (around $872,000).

Meanwhile, statistics from the Ministry of Labour show that the average annual income of a full-time worker in the capital remained at 6.78 million yen in fiscal 2025. This widening gap between incomes and residential property prices is directly shaping political priorities.

During its campaign for the House of Representatives election in February, the LDP pledged to curb speculative transactions across metropolitan Tokyo and other regions. Earlier this month, a party project team focused on policies concerning foreign nationals also submitted a recommendation urging the government to introduce immediate tax measures against rising home prices.

Under current legislation, profits realized from properties sold within five years of acquisition are classified as “short-term capital gains”. These returns face a tax rate approaching %40, including income tax and local inhabitant tax.

Although this rate is twice the approximately %20 levied as “long-term capital gains” tax on properties held for more than five years, several party members argue it remains insufficient to deter speculation. Calls to tighten the framework may be considered as part of the annual tax reform package to be drafted in December alongside the LDP’s coalition partner, the Japan Innovation Party.

The ruling bloc wants to present concrete housing pledges to voters heading to the polls in April across numerous urban centres, including 22 of Tokyo’s wards where local assembly terms expire.

“We need to support families with children, who are typically at the stage of purchasing a home,” a senior LDP official said.

Opposition parties are also preparing alternative proposals that target not only prospective homebuyers, but also residents forced into the rental market by high property prices and now affected by escalating rents.

Tax steps take precedence over limits on foreign buyers

Several countries seeking answers to housing affordability pressures have imposed direct restrictions on foreign purchasers. In South Korea, real estate policies played a major part in the declining public approval ratings of President Lee Jae Myung.

In August 2025, authorities in Seoul introduced an approval requirement for foreign nationals buying homes in the capital and adjacent areas, while also mandating that buyers reside in the properties for at least two years.

Canada and Australia have enacted temporary bans on foreign residential purchases, while Singapore levies a %60 additional stamp duty on foreign buyers.

The role of overseas investors in Japan’s property market also drew debate during the February election. However, restrictions aimed directly at foreign nationals are viewed as potentially conflicting with international trade and services agreements.

Consequently, rather than imposing restrictions based on the nationality of buyers, the government is discussing tax measures aimed at speculative real estate deals, such as rapid resales.

Fears that sharp market measures could shake regional banks

Concerns have also surfaced that aggressive steps to force down prices could harm the wider national economy.

A senior LDP tax official cautioned that a steep drop in land prices could weaken local financial institutions, warning: “We must consider the impact on regional banks.”

The real estate sector accounts for roughly %18 of total lending by Japanese banks. This proportion sits well above the %10 level recorded during Japan’s bubble economy of the mid-to-late 1980s.

At certain regional banks, property lending accounts for nearly half of total loan portfolios.

According to March 2025 data from the Financial Services Agency, approximately one-quarter of all loans extended by regional banks to the real estate sector are concentrated directly in Tokyo’s five central wards.

Buoyant asset valuations, supported in part by rising stock indices, have underpinned strong public approval for the Takaichi administration. Observers note that property interventions designed to cool the market could drag down equity prices and weaken the government’s standing.

A senior official on the LDP research commission stressed that decision-makers must act with caution regarding the scope and timing of any measures intended to bring price increases under control.

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South Korea plans $120B spend on eight US nuclear power plants

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South Korea will spend $120 billion to construct eight nuclear power plants in the US under an agreement that provides for $350 billion in investments in exchange for lower tariffs.

The South Korean government also announced that Seoul and Washington will begin examining a liquefied natural gas (LNG) project in Alaska comprising a large-scale pipeline to transport natural gas from the north of the state to the south, alongside the construction of an LNG terminal for exports overseas.

Seoul stated that a decision regarding the LNG project will be made following a commercial feasibility study. However, US President Donald Trump said that South Korea would invest $54 billion in the project, pointing to an apparent lack of full coordination between the two sides on the matter.

Trade and Industry Minister Kim Jung-kwan said in a statement: “This announcement opens a new horizon of cooperation where the two countries join forces to develop joint commercial ventures in strategic areas directly linked to economic security and future sectors such as artificial intelligence, nuclear energy, and LNG.”

“We will adhere to the principle of prioritising national interests and investing solely in commercially viable projects,” Kim said.

Speaking at the White House, Trump characterised South Korea’s plans as “one of the largest energy infrastructure investments in American history”.

The announcement followed a meeting between Trump and South Korean President Lee Jae Myung roughly one year ago at the APEC Economic Leaders’ Meeting held in South Korea, where they agreed on the creation of a $350 billion investment fund.

Under that agreement, $150 billion was allocated to the shipbuilding sector and $200 billion to other sectors. In return, the US announced it would reduce tariffs imposed on goods imported from South Korea from 25% to 15%.

Under the nuclear power project, South Korea’s state-controlled utility will build two plants in the US, while Pennsylvania-based Westinghouse Electric will construct six plants.

According to the South Korean government, this will mark the first instance in which a foreign country builds its own nuclear power plants in the US.

South Korean firms are also evaluating the possibility of acquiring a stake in Westinghouse as part of negotiations over sharing profits generated by the project.

South Korea additionally announced that it will build a $22.3 billion natural gas-fired power plant in Texas with a capacity of 6,472 megawatts.

The facility will be designed to supply electricity directly to nearby data centres. The project’s first phase is targeted to begin commercial operations in 2029, with full-capacity operations slated for 2032.

Seoul also disclosed that it had agreed to allow the US to receive 50% of the profits generated by the projects until South Korea recoups all of its investments.

After South Korea fully recovers its total investment amount, 90% of the profits will go to the US.

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