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Syria after Assad; A look at the future and possible scenarios

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The rapid fall of Bashar al-Assad’s government by the rebels and its opponents in less than two weeks surprised the region and all Middle East experts. Before the fall of Aleppo, few people imagined that Bashar Assad’s government would fall apart so soon and his opposition forces would take power. Despite the large presence of Iran and Russia, Assad felt minimal security and did not imagine that the foundations of his power would collapse so soon.

But if we look at his rule after 2011 and put the pieces of the puzzle together, the signs of the fall of his rule are evident since the beginning of the civil war.

During the 14 years of civil war and the conflict with ISIS, the Syrian army and the economy of this country were very worn out and they did not have the spirit to continue the war. On the other hand, there were numerous reports that the salaries of the Syrian forces were severely inadequate and sometimes their salaries were not paid on time.

The Syrian economy was torn apart due to the war and double international sanctions, and the living conditions of its citizens were not suitable either. One of the reasons why the people did not show resistance against the successive victories of the rebel forces and sometimes welcomed it was the way of Assad’s governance and the widespread corruption in his government.

On the other hand, the domino fall of the Syrian provinces, the loss of the narrative of the war, widespread corruption, the lack of spirit to continue the war and finally the escape of the president, have many similarities with the fall of Kabul and the Afghan government.

But what can be imagined about the upcoming scenarios?

Regarding the scenarios facing Syria, three futures or scenarios can be imagined. Since the fall of Syria is very similar to the fall of Afghanistan in 2021, and on the other hand, insurgent forces have been able to take over the government twice in Afghanistan, the example of Afghanistan can be used to better outline the future scenarios of Syria.

A.—Afghanistan after 2021

One of the scenarios is that the Syrian Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), with a history of being close to al-Qaeda and a limited period of contact with ISIS, will seize all power in Syria and establish a highly repressive and religious government, similar to the Taliban in Afghanistan.

This scenario seems probable due to the intellectual similarities between the writing staff of HTS and the Taliban. Just as the Taliban had a close relationship with al-Qaeda, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham was also initially part of the al-Qaeda network in Syria, which at that time was known as the Nusrat Front. The group was even considered part of ISIS at one point, until it publicly announced that it had severed ties with al-Qaeda and no longer wanted to pursue the cause of global jihad.

In fact, the reconstruction of the identity and brand of this group started from that point. They changed their name from Jabhat Nusrat to Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and tried to present a more moderate image. Their goal was to show the international community, especially Western countries, that they face no threat from this group.

This approach may help HTS to play a central role in the Syrian power structure in the near future, similar to the role the Taliban assumed in Afghanistan after 2021.

The possible scenarios

What makes this scenario possible and drives it forward is the history and ideology of the HTS. Ideologically, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham is not much different from al-Qaeda and ISIS. As mentioned earlier, this group is a joint product of ISIS and al-Qaeda.

The experience of governing this group in Idlib in recent years also strengthens this assumption. Numerous reports have been published about human rights violations under the rule of this group, which have raised serious concerns of many international observers.

These factors, along with the history of the close association of the HTS with extremist jihadi groups and their repressive behavior, increase the possibility that if this group comes to power, it will create a repressive and extremist government structure in Syria.

Blockers

Several factors can block the realization of this scenario or reduce its probability:

1- The presence of nationalist forces

The Syrian Liberation Army, as one of the main forces that played a role in overthrowing the Assad regime, can be a serious obstacle against the complete domination of the HTS. These forces have nationalist tendencies.

2- International supervision

Although international supervision has had limited effectiveness in recent years, it can still play a deterrent role. Interference and diplomatic and economic pressures from global and regional powers can challenge the process of gaining power of an extremist government.

3- Resistance of Syrian citizens

A large part of Syrian citizens does not have a good middle ground with absolute theocracy. This issue became evident during the presence of ISIS in the region, when many people directly or indirectly resisted the presence and ideology of this group. This public attitude can make the writing staff of Sham face a challenge in creating a government similar to the Taliban or ISIS.

These factors can change the balance of power in favor of more moderate forces and prevent the formation of an extremist government in Syria.

– Afghanistan in the 1980s: Civil war between the victorious forces

The presence of several forces that contributed to the fall of the Assad regime strengthens the hypothesis that the Syrian civil war is not over yet and may enter a new phase. It is likely that the battle for control of power will take place between the conquering forces this time.

This scenario has already been observed in Afghanistan in the 1980s. Jihadi forces that overthrew the government of Dr. Najibullah, after the victory, engaged in internal disputes and started a new war to seize power. These conflicts entered Afghanistan into a long period of instability and violence.

In Syria as well, the ideological diversity and political differences between the victorious forces could be the basis for a new civil war, this time between different groups to dominate the government and strategic areas.

The possible scenarios

Several factors can enhance this scenario and increase its probability of occurrence:

1- The presence of regional powers and their conflicting interests

– Turkey: Considering Turkey’s military presence and its policies towards the border areas, it seems that its role will be decisive in shaping the future of Syria.

– Iran and Russia: These two countries, which have invested a lot on the Assad regime and the political structure of Syria, are unlikely to give up their interests in this country easily.

– Qatar and Saudi Arabia: Arab countries, especially Qatar and Saudi Arabia, will try to play a role in the future of Syria, considering their ideological conflict and political interests.

2- Lack of ideological unity among the conquering groups

The diversity of thinking and deep ideological differences between the victorious forces, including the Syrian Democratic Army, the Syrian Democratic Army, and the Kurdish groups, can be the basis for new internal conflicts. The history of past conflicts between these groups, especially between the Kurds and the Syrian opposition, increases the possibility of a new civil war.

3- History of confrontation between victorious groups

Historical rivalries and current tensions between different forces, such as the Syrian Democratic Army and the Syrian Democratic Army, show that the lack of convergence between the conquering groups can lead to new conflicts. This situation, similar to the experience of Afghanistan in the 1980s, strengthens the possibility of conflict between the victorious forces.

These drivers show that the regional competition and lack of internal cohesion between the conquering groups can bring Syria into a new stage of civil war.

The possible scenarios

Several factors can prevent a new civil war between the conquering forces in Syria:

1- Abu Mohammad Jolani’s actions to create unity

The leader of the HTS, Abu Mohammad Jolani, has recently started efforts to forge an alliance between the conquering forces and prevent chaos in Syria. These measures can be a serious obstacle against the occurrence of internal conflicts between different groups and increase the possibility of cooperation and coordination between these forces.

2- Kurds’ readiness to cooperate

Kurdish forces have also announced that they are ready to cooperate with other groups. This process, if properly managed, can prevent the escalation of disputes and internal conflicts and help create a stable political structure.

3- The potential for a common political process

If these efforts for unity and cooperation between different groups go well, we can hope that instead of entering a new war, Syria will enter a stage of political and social reconstruction.

These deterrent factors indicate that, if managed intelligently, the repetition of the Afghanistan scenario of the 1980s in Syria can be avoided.

The last: General elections

The third scenario, which is known as the ideal scenario, is to move towards holding general and democratic elections. In Afghanistan, such a process never took place, and powerful groups, by seizing power, prevented the holding of real elections.

Currently, many Syrian citizens wish for elections to be held so that they can vote for the people of their choice and have a voice in political decisions.

However, implementing this option will not be easy, especially considering the current situation in Syria. Several challenges, including humanitarian crises, internal tensions and lack of cohesion between different groups can prevent this scenario from being realized.

Strong and effective international monitoring can be a driving factor for holding democratic elections. This monitoring can help provide the necessary conditions for holding a transparent and fair election and rebuild the trust of Syrian citizens in the political process.

If this scenario is realized, it can be considered as a turning point in the history of Syria and an opportunity to build a better future for this country. According to the mentioned scenarios, it is possible to form other scenarios and future developments will determine which direction Syria will go.

On the other hand, there are concerns that ISIS will take advantage of the resulting chaos and power vacuum. ISIS cells are still present in some areas of Syria, such as Deir ez-Zor and Al-Bukamal, and the possibility of the re-emergence of this group cannot be ruled out.

Another issue is the possibility of forming a new self-governing region in the Middle East. The existing power vacuum gives the Syrian Kurds the opportunity to form an independent region similar to the Iraqi Kurdistan Region. The Kurds currently rule the northern and northeastern parts of Syria, and they do not want to lose control of their areas in any way.

Turkey does not seem to support this scenario and has particular security concerns about the PKK’s military wing. For this reason, Turkey will probably be one of the barriers to this scenario because he currently considers itself the main winner in the Syrian arena.

Finally, the future of Syria will depend on the complex interactions between these factors and groups, and future developments can shape the future of this country.

Middle East

Iran warns of harsh response if US enters war

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As mutual attacks between Iran and Israel, which began on June 13, continue to escalate tensions in the region, the US is signaling its potential involvement in the war. The Iranian government has threatened the US with a harsh response in such a scenario.

Ambassador Ali Bahreyni, Iran’s Permanent Representative to the United Nations Office at Geneva, stated, “If at any point we conclude that the US is directly involved in attacks against Iran, we will begin to respond to the US.”

Bahreyni met with journalists from the Association of Accredited Correspondents at the United Nations (ACANU) in Geneva to discuss the conflict that started with Israel’s attacks on Iran.

Recalling that the Israeli regime has been conducting attacks on Iran since June 13, Bahreyni remarked, “This is Israeli aggression targeting civilians, women, children, civilian infrastructure, and even our country’s peaceful nuclear facilities. During these attacks, hundreds of innocent people, including many children and women, have been killed. There is a great danger surrounding our peaceful nuclear facilities, not only in Iran but also due to the potential exposure of people in our region to dangerous leaks.”

Bahreyni criticized the financial, logistical, and military support provided to Israel by the US and many other Western countries.

Stating that Israel attacked Iran without provocation, Bahreyni said, “During these attacks, Israel violated the principles of discrimination, proportionality, and public notification by targeting civilians. Israel has violated all norms of international law and human rights. Iran is determined to respond to Israeli attacks. We will show no doubt or hesitation in defending our people, our security, and our territory. We will respond very seriously and forcefully. This is what we are doing now. We cannot focus on anything other than defending ourselves.”

Bahreyni pointed out that the US is complicit in Israel’s actions, adding, “Without the US, Israel is nothing. Whatever Israel does, it does with the military and intelligence support of the US. We will monitor the actions of the US. If at any point we conclude that the US is directly involved in attacks against Iran, we will begin to respond to the US.”

Noting that the UN Security Council and other international organizations have failed to stop the crimes committed by Israel during this process, Bahreyni said that these international bodies have lost their reason for existence.

Bahreyni emphasized that Iran’s nuclear program is peaceful.

‘If our red lines are crossed, there will be a response’

In response to a question from Anadolu Agency about whether he views US President Donald Trump’s recent statements on the tensions as an intervention, Bahreyni replied:

“Yes, we are monitoring the statements of US officials, including the US President. We see these as irresponsible attitudes toward the challenges facing Iran, and we believe that US policy toward Iran has been hostile for the last 40 years. This is not new. US threats against Iran are not new. It is clear that the US has a hostile attitude toward Iran. Iran has previously stood against the arrogant policies of the US. The statements made by Trump are completely unbalanced. We cannot ignore these statements.”

Bahreyni stated that Iran has red lines and will respond if they are crossed.

In a large-scale air operation launched by Israel last Friday, critical centers of Iran’s nuclear program and high-ranking military officials were targeted. Iranian media reports that thousands of people have been evacuated from the capital, Tehran, and other major cities following the attacks.

Although the US has not yet carried out a direct attack, it is providing indirect defensive support, such as destroying missiles aimed at Israel in the air. The Pentagon announced that it has sent additional fighter jets and air power reinforcements to the region.

Pezeshkian emphasizes national unity

While the US raises the stakes against Iran to compel it to comply with its nuclear demands, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, in a speech at a cabinet meeting, said that the country’s internal solidarity is the greatest guarantee against external threats. According to a statement published on the presidential website, Pezeshkian said:

“If the people are with us, no problem can threaten the country. All steps must be taken to preserve national unity.”

Pezeshkian also thanked the many countries, especially neighboring ones, that sent messages of support to Iran during the Israeli attacks. At the end of the meeting, it was requested that security measures be kept at the maximum level and that all state officials act in accordance with the instructions of the relevant authorities.

People take to the streets in Tehran

Despite Israel’s attacks and US threats, large crowds gathered in Palestine Square in Tehran to support the country’s leadership.

Citizens who gathered in Palestine Square, located near the residence of Iranian leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, carried posters of Khamenei and Iranian flags and chanted slogans against Israel and the US.

It was noteworthy that some families brought their children to the demonstration, despite US President Donald Trump’s threat to “evacuate Tehran.” Some police and soldiers were also seen participating in the demonstrations.

Khamenei: No negotiations with Zionists

Meanwhile, Iranian leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei stated in a post on his X account that they will continue to respond to Israel’s attacks and will never negotiate with them: “The terrorist Zionist regime must be fought with determination. We will never negotiate with the Zionists.”

Damage to nuclear facilities is limited

Statements were also made regarding Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, which has been a direct target of the conflict. Mohammad Eslami, the head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, said in an interview on state television, “The condition of the nuclear facilities is good. The morale of the employees is high.”

Organization spokesman Behrouz Kamalvandi had previously stated that minor damage occurred after the attack on the Fordow Nuclear Facility in the city of Qom, but no nuclear leak occurred. The Natanz Nuclear Facility in Isfahan was more affected by the attack, but it was announced that the nuclear contamination there did not spread outside the facility.

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Iran’s uranium enrichment program since 1979

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Iran’s uranium enrichment program underwent major changes after the Islamic Revolution in 1979. During the Pahlavi dynasty, Iran had extensive cooperation with Western countries and even received offers to participate in enrichment consortiums.

But after the revolution, this cooperation stopped and Iran pursued the independent development of its own nuclear technology. In the 1980s, Iran was able to achieve an enrichment level of 3.67 percent, which was suitable for supplying fuel to nuclear power plants.

Over time, this rate increased, reaching 60 percent at some points, which raised concerns internationally. Accordingly, the JCPOA, a nuclear agreement between Iran and world powers, was signed in 2015. The agreement was concluded by Iran and the P5+1 group (the United States, UK, France, Russia, China, and Germany) and aimed to limit Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for the lifting of economic sanctions.

Under the deal, Iran committed to limiting its enrichment level to 3.67 percent and reducing its stockpile of enriched uranium. Extensive monitoring by the International Atomic Energy Agency was also imposed on Iran’s nuclear facilities.

US withdrawal from the JCPOA caused Iran to gradually reduce its commitments and increase its enrichment level.

But in 2018, the US administration under Donald Trump withdrew from the JCPOA agreement. The reasons for this withdrawal included US concerns about Iran’s regional influence and the lack of coverage of Iran’s missile program in the agreement.

The US withdrawal from the JCPOA caused Iran to gradually reduce its commitments and increase its enrichment level. In the following years, Iran announced that it had achieved 60pc enrichment and even had plans to increase this level further.

Because uranium enrichment has many applications – at low levels (3.67 percent), it is used to produce fuel for nuclear power plants. At higher levels (20 percent), it has medical applications, including the production of radioactive isotopes for cancer treatment.

But enrichment at 90 percent would lead to the production of nuclear weapons, although Iran has always insisted that its nuclear program is peaceful.

Deadly conflict between Iran and Israel, the two arch-enemy  and its impact on the region

The conflict between Iran and Israel is also directly related to Iran’s nuclear program. Israel has always considered Iran’s nuclear program a threat to its security and has in some cases launched cyberattacks and even physical attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities.

On the other hand, Iran considers Israel a threat to the region and supports resistance groups in the region. These tensions have made the Iranian nuclear issue one of the main axes of regional disputes.

Meanwhile, the war between Iran and Israel has widespread effects on the region and especially on the economies of neighboring countries, including Afghanistan.

This conflict not only has military and political consequences, but has also affected the economy of the region and increased economic instability.

Israeli attacks on Iran’s nuclear and military facilities, especially oil facilities, could reduce Iran’s oil production and exports.

This will lead to an increase in global oil prices, which will have a direct impact on the economies of countries that depend on energy imports. Countries in the region, including Turkey, Iraq, and Afghanistan, which source some of their energy from Iran, will face increased import costs.

However, Afghanistan will be directly affected by the war due to its heavy dependence on imports from Iran. The country imports many consumer goods, including food, fuel, and construction materials, from Iran.

The energy crisis is also a major consequence of the conflict between Iran and Israel

If the war intensifies, these imports will be disrupted and prices will increase. The energy crisis is also a major consequence of the conflict. Afghanistan gets a significant portion of its electricity from Iran, and if Iran’s energy exports decrease, Afghanistan will face a power shortage, which will have a negative impact on industries and the daily lives of people. Disruption of trade routes is another consequence of this war.

Reduced imports from Iran and increased transportation costs will increase inflation in Afghanistan, which will put more economic pressure on the people.

These effects occur through several economic and geopolitical mechanisms. New sanctions against Iran could reduce the country’s exports and increase the price of imported goods to Afghanistan.

Regional instability could also increase insecurity on the Iranian-Afghan border, which would affect trade and investment.

Military conflicts could make trade routes unsafe and increase the cost of transporting goods. A prolonged Iran-Israel war would be not only a military crisis, but also an economic crisis for the region and Afghanistan.

Rising oil prices, disruptions in trade, an energy crisis, and inflation are among the consequences of this war. Afghanistan, due to its heavy dependence on imports from Iran, will be the most affected and may face serious economic and social problems. The future of this crisis depends on diplomatic decisions and regional developments; but what is certain is that its economic effects will be widespread and long-lasting.

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An assault on the Axis of Resistance: The Israeli escalation against Iran and its impact on Palestine and Gaza

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Khaled al-Yamani, Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP)

Events in the region are accelerating as if we are on the brink of a new political and security earthquake, led by the direct confrontation between the Islamic Republic of Iran and the Zionist entity, under blatant American complicity. This confrontation, though it appears to be military and security-based, is in essence a major war targeting the entire project of resistance — from Tehran to Gaza.

Latest escalation: Aggressive maneuvers in the name of ‘Israeli security’

The Zionist entity launched an aerial assault targeting military sites deep within Iranian territory. Under recycled pretexts — related to Iran’s nuclear and missile programs — “Israel” continues its strikes, not only against Tehran, but also against its allies in Syria, Lebanon, Iraq, and Yemen.

But what’s happening isn’t just “preemptive strikes” as Western media claims — it is the continuation of a long war waged by the United States and “Israel” against the Axis of Resistance, aiming to break the balance of deterrence established by Iran and its allies after years of strategic patience and military development.

America and Israel: One goal behind false slogans

This escalation cannot be separated from direct American direction. The Biden administration, though claiming to seek de-escalation, in practice provides full political, military, and intelligence cover for this aggression.

The goal is clear: to dismantle the Axis of Resistance and deprive Iran of any ability to support its allies — first and foremost, the Palestinian resistance factions.

The U.S. administration knows that Iran’s strength does not lie solely in its nuclear program, but in its presence in the regional equation — from Lebanon to Iraq to Palestine. Therefore, striking Iran means breaking the backbone of the Jerusalem Axis.

What does Gaza and Palestine have to do with this?

Any attack on Iran is, by extension, an attack on Gaza. What is plotted in Tehran reflects immediately in the alleys of Khan Younis and the Jabalia refugee camp. The rockets that overwhelmed the Israeli army during the “Al-Aqsa Flood” battle would not have reached the resistance without decades of accumulated Iranian support.

Now, the Zionist entity — with American backing — seeks to cut off the lifeline to Palestine and destroy the support network Iran has built for the resistance, whether in weapons, knowledge, or training.

Thus, striking Iran is not separate from the ongoing aggression on Gaza; it is a direct extension of it, and part of the suffocating siege aimed at weakening the Palestinian people’s ability to endure and resist.

The Axis of Resistance: Unity of fronts and a shared fate

The new equation imposed by the Axis of Resistance after the “Sword of Jerusalem” battle — and later the “Al-Aqsa Flood” — has become a nightmare for the enemy: the unity of fronts. No longer is Gaza alone, or the southern suburbs alone, or Sanaa alone.

Hence, the Zionist entity is now trying to preempt any emerging united front by striking at the center — Iran — before a full-scale confrontation erupts that could spell the end of “Israel” as we know it.

Conclusion: The battle continues… and Palestine remains the heart

We are facing a pivotal moment in the history of this struggle. The enemy seeks to paralyze the Axis of Resistance at its strategic core and turn the conflict into a fight for survival. Yet the Axis today is stronger than ever.

Despite the wounds, Gaza remains at the heart of this confrontation. The battle is not just being fought in Iranian territory or over the skies of Lebanon and Syria — it is being fought over the future of Palestine, from the river to the sea.

Therefore, it is the duty of all the free people of the world, and all honest journalists, to speak the truth.

If Israel emerges victorious from its ongoing confrontation with the Islamic Republic of Iran, the consequences of that victory will not be limited to Tehran or the Axis of Resistance alone. Rather, they will extend to impact the entire regional balance of power — with Türkiye’s role at the center of that shift.

An Israeli victory would, in effect, cement its dominance as an unchallengeable military force in the Middle East, fully backed by the United States. This would open the door to a new phase of political interference and pressure, especially against regional powers that still maintain a degree of independent decision-making — chief among them, Türkiye.

Türkiye, which seeks to maintain an independent and balanced role between East and West, and whose interests are intertwined with Russia, Iran, and Central Asian countries, would come under increasing pressure to reposition itself according to Israeli-American terms. It may find itself facing two options: either submit to the new regional equation, or enter an unwanted political — and possibly security — confrontation.

From this perspective, what is happening in Tehran today is not isolated from what could happen in Ankara tomorrow. If Iran falls as an independent regional power, Türkiye may be next in line.

The assault on Iran is an assault on Palestine. Defending Tehran is defending Jerusalem.

This battle has strategic implications not only for the Palestinian cause and the Axis of Resistance against Zionist-American hegemony, but its outcomes will extend across the entire region — particularly affecting major regional powers such as Türkiye, Iran, and Egypt.

If Iran stands firm and emerges victorious in this confrontation, it will strengthen the role of these countries in resisting Zionist arrogance and domination. One could even say that such a victory may bring an end to Zionist hegemony over the region and, as a result, weaken American influence as well.

It would allow these countries to become more independent and distant from U.S. control, which seeks to turn the peoples of the region into subjects by dividing them into warring sects and identities. Therefore, solidarity among these countries at this moment is one of the key elements of victory — and a potential beginning of liberation from Zionist-American domination.


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