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‘Taiwanese politician’s visit is part of US strategy to contain China’

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China’s Foreign Ministry on Sunday condemned Taiwan’s Vice President William Lai’s visit to the United States, saying Beijing will take strong steps to protect its sovereignty. Experts described the visit as part of the US strategy to “contain” China.

Lai, a candidate to become Taiwan’s next president in elections in January, landed in New York on his way to Paraguay for the swearing-in ceremony of newly elected President Santiago Pena.

Arriving in New York late Saturday, Lai was greeted by Ingrid Larson, Director of the Washington Office of the American Institute, the “de facto mission” of the United States in Taiwan, and Hsiao Bi-khim, representative of the Taipei Economic and Cultural Office in New York.

Lai met with Taiwanese living in the United States at a private dinner, where he delivered a speech advocating for the independence of the island.

Lai is also expected to make another “stopover” in San Francisco on his way back to Taipei on Wednesday.

Beijing: One-China principle and China’s sovereignty are violated

Shortly after Lai arrived in New York on a scheduled flight from Taipei, the Chinese Foreign Ministry issued a statement saying that it “opposes any visit to the United States by Taiwan independence supporters.”

Describing Lai as “clinging stubbornly to the separatist position for ‘independence’,” the statement said, “We firmly oppose any visit by ‘Taiwan independence’ separatists to the US in any name or under whatever pretext.”

The statement noted that the arrangements engaged by the US and Taiwan authorities for Lai’s political activities in the name of a “stopover” violate the principle of “one China” and undermine China’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.

Emphasizing that the Taiwan issue is the core of China’s core interests and a “red line” that must not be crossed, the statement said, “urge the US to abide by the one-China principle and to deliver on its commitment not to support Taiwan’s independence.”

The statement said that the incident “once again shows the fundamental cause of the continued tensions in the Taiwan Strait is the Taiwan authorities’ attempt to solicit US support for ‘Taiwan independence’ and that the US is bent on using Taiwan to contain China.” The statement added that China is closely following the developments and will “take resolute and strong measures” to safeguard its sovereignty and territorial integrity.

Election campaign

Laura Rosenberger, president of the American Institute in Taiwan, said on X (Twitter) that she will host Lai in San Francisco on his way home on Wednesday.

Currently a candidate for the separatist Democratic Progressive Party’s (DPP) 2024 election for Taiwan’s regional leader, Lai has been trying to persuade voters on the island and supporters in the United States with narratives of “Taiwan independence” versus “Chinese reunification” and “democracy versus authoritarianism.”

On the other hand, Lai’s visits come at a time when Beijing and Washington are trying to improve relations.

This also includes a possible visit to the United States by Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, which could pave the way for a meeting between US President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping later this year.

The Taiwan Foreign Ministry announced earlier this month that Lai would attend the August 15 inauguration of newly elected President Santiago Pena of Paraguay as a representative of Taiwanese leader Tsai Ing-wen and make “stopovers” in New York and San Francisco prior to and after his trip.

Paraguay is among the few countries that officially recognize Taiwan.

Taiwanese leader Tsai Ing-wen also made “stopovers” in the United States in early April before and after her visits to Guatemala and Belize and met with US House of Representatives Speaker Kevin McCarthy.

In response to the visit, the Chinese military organized a 3-day military drill around the island.

In the context of the “One China” principle, Beijing opposes Taiwan establishing independent diplomatic relations with countries around the world and considers these talks as “interference in its internal affairs”.

Prof. Dr. Hasan Ünal: Proxy war against China over Taiwan

Evaluating the Taiwanese leader’s visit and the US policy on Taiwan, Prof. Dr. Hasan Ünal said that the Washington administration is waging a proxy war against China over Taiwan.

Noting that especially if Biden is re-elected, the US will try to strengthen its position against China and accelerate the proxy war over Taiwan, Ünal stated that this is how he sees things going if there is no radical change in American foreign policy.

‘Ideal scenario for the American arms industry’

“From the point of view of the American arms industry, this is the ideal scenario,” Prof. Ünal said, adding, “Think of the investment in the arms industry in Ukraine, and think of the dimensions of a struggle against China. In addition, the US will arm its allies in the Asia-Pacific in such a situation, which it has already started to do. So the Pentagon budget would also be increased in such a situation,” he continued.

‘It would have a negative impact on the American economy and society’

Noting that this is a great scenario for the US deep state, Ünal emphasized that if they insist on this scenario, it will blow up in America’s hands: “Even if certain groups benefit from it, this scenario will have a fundamentally bad impact on the American economy. There is no budget for the basic expenses of the country, but there is a budget for weapons. Of course, this would deepen the problems in the country, accelerate social, social and economic disintegration.”

He added that if US expectations in Ukraine collapse, then it will be difficult for the US to engage in such a struggle with China.

Prof. Ünal also drew attention to the pro-independence groups in Taiwan and suggested that these groups may have forced the US to make these visits in order to confirm their last trump card against “reunification”.

Prof. Dr. Barış Doster: Part of Washington’s strategy to contain China

Stating that Lai’s visit should be read within the framework of broader US policies, Prof. Dr. Barış Doster said:

“First of all, this visit of the politician in Taiwan cannot be considered independently from the US strategy of provoking China and encircling and encircling China from its immediate vicinity, and in this context, the plans to include countries in China’s immediate vicinity in this strategy through organizations such as AUKUS and QUAD. Former US Speaker of the House Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan was one of the pioneering steps of this strategy. Obviously, such moves by the US will continue.”

Secondly, emphasizing economic factors, Doster said that the US is lagging behind in the economic race with China, and therefore Washington, aware of the fact that it cannot prevent Beijing economically, has no other leverage left but to increase such tensions and strengthen its military buildup to encircle China.

‘Contrary to US promises to China’

These actions are in violation of the agreements and promises the US has made with China, Doster said, adding that these provocations will continue, but the US has no intention of risking a direct confrontation and military escalation with China over it.

The US administration had adopted the ‘One China’ principle in its diplomatic recognition of China. In 1979, it declared this in writing. At the first meeting between China and the US in 1972, the US said, “I recognize Taiwan and China as one piece.” By 1979, the parties mutually recognized each other. In 1979, the US said, ‘I no longer recognize the government in Taiwan as the representative of China, but rather the People’s Republic of China established by the Chinese Communist Party. It recognized Taiwan as part of mainland China, that is, the one-China principle. “We respect the One China principle and will continue our relations with Taiwan at the economic, cultural and informal levels,” the United States said in 1979.

Since then, however, the US has taken many actions that violate this principle, systematically sending arms to Taiwan, quadrupling the number of troops on the island, the Pentagon allocating a special budget to support Taiwan, and Washington signing a trade agreement with Taiwan. Diplomatically, the United States has also continued to violate, hosting the leader of Taiwan in the country, as well as a visit by former House of Representatives Pelosi.

DIPLOMACY

US overtakes China as Germany’s biggest trading partner

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The United States overtook China as Germany’s most important trading partner in the first quarter of this year, according to Reuters calculations based on official data from the Federal Statistical Office.

According to the data, Germany’s trade with the United States, the sum of exports and imports, totalled 63 billion euros ($68 billion) in the January-March period, while the figure for China was just under 60 billion euros.

With a volume of 253 billion euros, China was Germany’s largest trading partner for the eighth time in a row, a few hundred million dollars ahead of the US.

“While German exports to the US continued to rise due to the strong economy there, both exports to and imports from China fell,” said Commerzbank economist Vincent Stamer, explaining the change in the first quarter.

“China has moved up the value chain and is increasingly producing more complex goods itself, which it used to import from Germany. German companies are also increasingly producing locally instead of exporting goods from Germany to China,” Stamer said.

Germany has said it wants to reduce its trade with China, citing political differences and accusing Beijing of “unfair practices”. But Berlin has yet to take any major steps towards a policy of reducing dependency.

German imports of goods from China fell by almost 12 per cent in the first quarter from a year earlier, while German exports to China fell by just over 1 per cent, according to Juergen Matthes of the German economic institute IW.

“The fact that the US economy exceeded expectations, while the Chinese economy performed worse than many had hoped, probably contributed to this,” Matthes said.

Sales to the US currently account for around 10 percent of German goods exports. China’s share, on the other hand, has fallen below 6 per cent, Matthes said.

On the other hand, Dirk Jandura, head of the BGA trade association, said: “If the White House administration changes after the US elections in November and moves further in the direction of closing markets, this process could come to a standstill,” pointing out that the trend of Germany’s trade route shifting across the Atlantic could stop.

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BOTAŞ signs LNG deal with ExxonMobil

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Turkey’s Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar said state-owned gas network operator BOTAŞ signed an LNG trade agreement with ExxonMobil on Wednesday in a bid to diversify its sources.

Bayraktar said in a statement on social media platform X: “The US is one of the important countries from which we already receive LNG. With this agreement, which is intended to be long-term, we will take another step towards diversifying our resources,” Bayraktar said, adding that the agreement was signed in Washington.

Noting that Turkey is among the few countries in the world with its gasification capacity, the minister said, “We will continue to contribute to the energy security of our country and our region.

Bayraktar gave no further details of the deal. The energy ministry did not respond to a Reuters request for comment.

In an interview with the Financial Times in late April, Bayraktar said Turkey wanted to “build a new supply portfolio” in energy procurement and said it was in talks with US fossil fuel giant Exxon Mobil for 2.5 million tonnes of liquefied natural gas (LNG) worth about $1.1 billion.

Bayraktar said Turkey was also in talks with other US natural gas producers for LNG deals, stressing that Turkey wanted to “diversify” its natural gas supplies before some of its contracts with Russia expire in 2025 and with Iran in 2026.

In addition to Russia, Azerbaijan and Iran, Turkey imports LNG from Algeria, Qatar, the US and Nigeria.

Russia is the country’s largest gas supplier. Last year, more than 40 per cent of its consumption was met with gas from that country.

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DIPLOMACY

The World Bank’s ‘climate plan’: More expensive meat and dairy, cheaper chicken and vegetables

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A new paper published by the World Bank suggests that the billions of dollars spent by rich countries on CO2-intensive products such as red meat and dairy products should be redirected towards more ‘climate-friendly’ options such as poultry, fruit and vegetables.

The bank argues that this is one of the most cost-effective ways to save the planet from ‘climate change’.

According to POLITICO, the ‘politically sensitive’ proposal is one of several the World Bank has put forward to reduce pollution from the agriculture and food sector, which it says is responsible for nearly a third of global greenhouse gas emissions.

We have to stop destroying the planet while we feed ourselves,’ Julian Lampietti, the World Bank’s director of global practice for agriculture and food, told POLITICO.

The work comes at a strategic diplomatic moment, as signatories to the Paris Agreement to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius prepare to update their climate plans by the end of 2025.

While the world needs to accelerate emissions cuts to meet the Paris Agreement’s goals, the World Bank wants officials to pay more attention to the agriculture and food sector, which it says has long been neglected and underfunded.

To be serious about achieving zero emissions by 2050 – a common goal for developed economies – countries need to invest $260 billion a year in these sectors, the report says. That is 18 times more than countries are currently investing.

The World Bank argues that governments could partially close this gap by redirecting subsidies for red meat and dairy towards lower-carbon alternatives. The Bank argues that this shift is one of the most cost-effective ways for rich countries to reduce demand for highly polluting foods, which are estimated to produce around 20 per cent of global agri-food emissions.

As a result, the climate impact will be reflected in the cost of food, he adds.

Full-cost pricing of animal-based foods to reflect their true planetary costs would make low-emissions food options more competitive,” the report says, suggesting that switching to plant-based diets could save twice as much planet-warming gases as other methods.

Meat and dairy production account for nearly 60 percent of agri-food emissions, according to the World Bank.

Lampietti warns against focusing too much on “what not to do” and suggests paying more attention to “what to do”. Food is a ‘deeply personal choice’, Lampietti said, adding that he fears the debate, which should be data-driven, could turn into a culture war.

The biggest concern is that people start using this as a political football,” he said.

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