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‘Taiwanese politician’s visit is part of US strategy to contain China’

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China’s Foreign Ministry on Sunday condemned Taiwan’s Vice President William Lai’s visit to the United States, saying Beijing will take strong steps to protect its sovereignty. Experts described the visit as part of the US strategy to “contain” China.

Lai, a candidate to become Taiwan’s next president in elections in January, landed in New York on his way to Paraguay for the swearing-in ceremony of newly elected President Santiago Pena.

Arriving in New York late Saturday, Lai was greeted by Ingrid Larson, Director of the Washington Office of the American Institute, the “de facto mission” of the United States in Taiwan, and Hsiao Bi-khim, representative of the Taipei Economic and Cultural Office in New York.

Lai met with Taiwanese living in the United States at a private dinner, where he delivered a speech advocating for the independence of the island.

Lai is also expected to make another “stopover” in San Francisco on his way back to Taipei on Wednesday.

Beijing: One-China principle and China’s sovereignty are violated

Shortly after Lai arrived in New York on a scheduled flight from Taipei, the Chinese Foreign Ministry issued a statement saying that it “opposes any visit to the United States by Taiwan independence supporters.”

Describing Lai as “clinging stubbornly to the separatist position for ‘independence’,” the statement said, “We firmly oppose any visit by ‘Taiwan independence’ separatists to the US in any name or under whatever pretext.”

The statement noted that the arrangements engaged by the US and Taiwan authorities for Lai’s political activities in the name of a “stopover” violate the principle of “one China” and undermine China’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.

Emphasizing that the Taiwan issue is the core of China’s core interests and a “red line” that must not be crossed, the statement said, “urge the US to abide by the one-China principle and to deliver on its commitment not to support Taiwan’s independence.”

The statement said that the incident “once again shows the fundamental cause of the continued tensions in the Taiwan Strait is the Taiwan authorities’ attempt to solicit US support for ‘Taiwan independence’ and that the US is bent on using Taiwan to contain China.” The statement added that China is closely following the developments and will “take resolute and strong measures” to safeguard its sovereignty and territorial integrity.

Election campaign

Laura Rosenberger, president of the American Institute in Taiwan, said on X (Twitter) that she will host Lai in San Francisco on his way home on Wednesday.

Currently a candidate for the separatist Democratic Progressive Party’s (DPP) 2024 election for Taiwan’s regional leader, Lai has been trying to persuade voters on the island and supporters in the United States with narratives of “Taiwan independence” versus “Chinese reunification” and “democracy versus authoritarianism.”

On the other hand, Lai’s visits come at a time when Beijing and Washington are trying to improve relations.

This also includes a possible visit to the United States by Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, which could pave the way for a meeting between US President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping later this year.

The Taiwan Foreign Ministry announced earlier this month that Lai would attend the August 15 inauguration of newly elected President Santiago Pena of Paraguay as a representative of Taiwanese leader Tsai Ing-wen and make “stopovers” in New York and San Francisco prior to and after his trip.

Paraguay is among the few countries that officially recognize Taiwan.

Taiwanese leader Tsai Ing-wen also made “stopovers” in the United States in early April before and after her visits to Guatemala and Belize and met with US House of Representatives Speaker Kevin McCarthy.

In response to the visit, the Chinese military organized a 3-day military drill around the island.

In the context of the “One China” principle, Beijing opposes Taiwan establishing independent diplomatic relations with countries around the world and considers these talks as “interference in its internal affairs”.

Prof. Dr. Hasan Ünal: Proxy war against China over Taiwan

Evaluating the Taiwanese leader’s visit and the US policy on Taiwan, Prof. Dr. Hasan Ünal said that the Washington administration is waging a proxy war against China over Taiwan.

Noting that especially if Biden is re-elected, the US will try to strengthen its position against China and accelerate the proxy war over Taiwan, Ünal stated that this is how he sees things going if there is no radical change in American foreign policy.

‘Ideal scenario for the American arms industry’

“From the point of view of the American arms industry, this is the ideal scenario,” Prof. Ünal said, adding, “Think of the investment in the arms industry in Ukraine, and think of the dimensions of a struggle against China. In addition, the US will arm its allies in the Asia-Pacific in such a situation, which it has already started to do. So the Pentagon budget would also be increased in such a situation,” he continued.

‘It would have a negative impact on the American economy and society’

Noting that this is a great scenario for the US deep state, Ünal emphasized that if they insist on this scenario, it will blow up in America’s hands: “Even if certain groups benefit from it, this scenario will have a fundamentally bad impact on the American economy. There is no budget for the basic expenses of the country, but there is a budget for weapons. Of course, this would deepen the problems in the country, accelerate social, social and economic disintegration.”

He added that if US expectations in Ukraine collapse, then it will be difficult for the US to engage in such a struggle with China.

Prof. Ünal also drew attention to the pro-independence groups in Taiwan and suggested that these groups may have forced the US to make these visits in order to confirm their last trump card against “reunification”.

Prof. Dr. Barış Doster: Part of Washington’s strategy to contain China

Stating that Lai’s visit should be read within the framework of broader US policies, Prof. Dr. Barış Doster said:

“First of all, this visit of the politician in Taiwan cannot be considered independently from the US strategy of provoking China and encircling and encircling China from its immediate vicinity, and in this context, the plans to include countries in China’s immediate vicinity in this strategy through organizations such as AUKUS and QUAD. Former US Speaker of the House Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan was one of the pioneering steps of this strategy. Obviously, such moves by the US will continue.”

Secondly, emphasizing economic factors, Doster said that the US is lagging behind in the economic race with China, and therefore Washington, aware of the fact that it cannot prevent Beijing economically, has no other leverage left but to increase such tensions and strengthen its military buildup to encircle China.

‘Contrary to US promises to China’

These actions are in violation of the agreements and promises the US has made with China, Doster said, adding that these provocations will continue, but the US has no intention of risking a direct confrontation and military escalation with China over it.

The US administration had adopted the ‘One China’ principle in its diplomatic recognition of China. In 1979, it declared this in writing. At the first meeting between China and the US in 1972, the US said, “I recognize Taiwan and China as one piece.” By 1979, the parties mutually recognized each other. In 1979, the US said, ‘I no longer recognize the government in Taiwan as the representative of China, but rather the People’s Republic of China established by the Chinese Communist Party. It recognized Taiwan as part of mainland China, that is, the one-China principle. “We respect the One China principle and will continue our relations with Taiwan at the economic, cultural and informal levels,” the United States said in 1979.

Since then, however, the US has taken many actions that violate this principle, systematically sending arms to Taiwan, quadrupling the number of troops on the island, the Pentagon allocating a special budget to support Taiwan, and Washington signing a trade agreement with Taiwan. Diplomatically, the United States has also continued to violate, hosting the leader of Taiwan in the country, as well as a visit by former House of Representatives Pelosi.

Diplomacy

Vance leads indirect push for US-Iran ceasefire and nuclear talks

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US Vice-President JD Vance has been personally involved over the past two weeks in indirect talks with Iran aimed at securing a fresh ceasefire and restarting nuclear negotiations.

According to Axios, Vance’s intense engagement indicates that he has taken it upon himself to extract the US from the conflict, which he views as responsible for the Republican Party’s shocking losses in this week’s elections.

This elevates the latest round of indirect talks to the highest echelons of the administration.

US officials and regional sources state that Trump is currently willing to let diplomatic efforts run their course to see whether any agreement is achievable.

Asked by reporters on Friday what his message was to Iran, Trump said, “We are talking to them.”

According to sources with direct knowledge of the matter, Vance speaks almost daily with Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, Pakistan’s Chief of Army Staff Field Marshal Asim Munir, and other mediators regarding the negotiations with Iran.

White House envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, President Trump’s adviser and son-in-law, are also involved in the process.

Sources say Vance and the Qatari and Pakistani mediators have been discussing the possibility of holding a working-level technical meeting between the US and Iran in the coming days, though this has not yet materialized.

Before the war began in late February, Vance was among the most sceptical voices in Trump’s inner circle on the issue, advocating instead for a diplomatic solution.

In April, he led the US negotiating delegation at the Iran summit held in Islamabad and was personally involved in the talks that yielded a memorandum of understanding (MOU) signed between the US and Iran in June.

Vance subsequently headed the US delegation during a series of direct talks with Iran in Switzerland.

Two weeks ago, Vance sent a letter to Mohsen Rezaei, Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, proposing that direct negotiations resume.

Rezaei is one of the closest advisers to Iran’s Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei.

Iranian officials noted that Vance’s letter generated positive momentum toward restarting talks.

On Wednesday, Vance said the war was the primary reason for the Republicans’ repudiation at the polls.

Sources involved in mediation efforts report that while progress is being made, the process is moving very slowly.

On Friday evening, the prime minister of Qatar said, “Over the past few weeks, we worked with our colleagues in the US administration who have a sincere intention to contain the situation and de-escalate. Thanks to them and the voices of reason in Tehran, we prevented the situation from spinning out of control.”

The prime minister added that discussions with the Trump administration continued following the midterm elections, though they were not as active as in previous days “because there are other matters.”

Nevertheless, he noted that the US intention to find a diplomatic resolution “remains ongoing” and emphasized that an agreement is possible.

On Friday morning, Trump and the Emir of Qatar discussed Qatari efforts to bridge differences between the US and Iran as part of an accord.

According to a statement from his office, Sheikh Tamim emphasized the necessity of “pursuing dialogue and diplomatic channels to resolve differences, prevent the region from facing further escalation, and ensure freedom of maritime navigation as well as the security of energy supplies.”

Separately, Trump confirmed on Friday that the US military conducted a strike on an anti-aircraft missile launcher on Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz after it fired a missile at a US fighter jet.

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Diplomacy

Ukraine faces demographic collapse as fertility rates slide

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British magazine The Economist reported that mobilization, conflict casualties, and pervasive uncertainty have left Ukraine confronting the threat of demographic collapse.

According to data cited by the magazine, Ukraine’s fertility rate has declined from 1.2 children per woman in 2020 to between 0.8 and 0.9.

This rate marks a lower level than that of any major nation except South Korea.

In the first half of 2026, the number of deaths in Ukraine surpassed the number of newborn babies threefold.

The report noted that ever since independence was gained in 1991, the number of births in the country has lagged behind the number of deaths every year.

The Economist emphasized that the demographic collapse driven by the ongoing fighting constitutes an “existential threat.”

The magazine identified mass refugee migration as the principal driver of the population loss.

More than 5 million Ukrainians reside abroad, predominantly in Europe.

The proportion of those wishing to return among those who left the country is also steadily shrinking.

According to data from the Centre for Economic Strategy (CES), the share of those seeking to return dropped from 74% in 2022 to 43%.

The fact that the majority of refugees consist of Ukrainian children and women under the age of 44 further aggravates the demographic picture.

The Kyiv government decided to exempt men under the age of 25 from mobilization to alleviate the demographic decline.

The magazine reported, however, that many young people have fled the country, while those who remain do not plan to start families.

Projections cited in the report indicate that even if hostilities cease in the coming years, Ukraine can, at best, expect merely a deceleration of depopulation.

Olga Duhnich, an expert at the Ukraine-based think tank Frontier Institute, stated that the generation born in the 1990s and 2000s is the least populous in Ukraine’s modern history, meaning the country cannot expect a post-conflict baby boom.

The United Nations (UN) projects that Ukraine’s population will decline by 0.7% to 0.9% each year over the next two decades.

Under this projection, Ukraine’s population will fall to approximately 25 million by 2040.

If hostilities drag on, people are expected to abandon plans to have children, deepening the crisis even further.

Beyond exempting men under 25 from mobilization, the Kyiv government is rolling out various support packages to boost birth rates.

Under legislation enacted in the country, parents who have children receive a direct payment of 50,000 hryvnias (around $1,100).

Parents are also paid 7,000 hryvnias each month during the first year.

Other state programmes subsidize childcare costs, while Ukrainian soldiers are granted free freezing of egg and sperm cells.

Ukrainian Minister of Social Policy Denis Ulyutin said in May to the Livyi Bereh media outlet that roughly 22 to 25 million people lived in government-controlled territories.

Ulyutin characterized the prevailing picture by saying: “This is a catastrophe.”

Ella Libanova, Director of the Institute for Demography and Quality of Life Research, estimated the population at 29 million during the same period.

Libanova attributed the steep fall from a population of 30 million in 2025 to high death rates and the demographic crisis.

In a statement in October, Libanova announced that Ukraine’s population had slipped to 28.5 million.

Institute Director Libanova said: “The population is already at 28.5 million; we lost half a million people. We lost them, but thankfully this was still caused by migration rather than casualties.”

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Armenian opposition urged to form joint front against constitution

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Narek Karapetyan, a lawmaker and head of the Strong Armenia faction in the Armenian parliament, has urged opposition parties to unite around four core principles set out in a joint declaration.

The key points of the declaration include resisting territorial concessions and blocking the adoption of a new constitution, which the opposition has termed the “Aliyev constitution”.

According to a report by Aysor.am, Narek Karapetyan stated that the opposition meeting was originally planned to be led by his uncle, businessman and Strong Armenia movement leader Samvel Karapetyan.

“We initiated the meeting, but the authorities took preemptive steps to prevent Samvel Karapetyan from launching the national unification process,” Narek Karapetyan said.

Noting that, despite these events, opposition representatives convened and signed a joint declaration based on four agreed articles, Narek Karapetyan invited other opposition forces and members of the public to join the alliance.

“We will not allow them to implement the Aliyev constitution in Armenia. We must unite,” Karapetyan said.

Ahead of these developments, Armenian National Security Service personnel detained Strong Armenia Party leader Samvel Karapetyan following a search of his home.

The party’s press secretary, Agavni Sukiasyan, announced that on the morning of the same day, the Investigative Committee of Armenia searched the homes of both Samvel Karapetyan and Narek Karapetyan.

In a report citing the Investigative Committee, Armenpress stated that Samvel Karapetyan was detained as part of a case involving allegations of causing large-scale financial damage to the Electric Networks of Armenia (ENA) company, embezzling entrusted property, and money laundering.

According to committee figures, the total damage inflicted on the company exceeds $179 million.

Narek Karapetyan’s home was also searched at the end of July as part of a criminal case.

On 22 July, Armenia’s Central Electoral Commission approved the Prosecutor General’s request to strip Narek Karapetyan of his parliamentary immunity, and Karapetyan was charged with large-scale money laundering.

According to information reported by Sputnik Armenia, the investigation is linked to charges brought against Strong Armenia supporter Aleksan Aleksanyan.

Investigative authorities allege that Aleksanyan received approximately $4.4 million and €230,000 from the Karapetyan-owned Tashir Foundation under the guise of gifts and loans.

Several criminal cases had previously been opened against Samvel Karapetyan.

In 2025, Karapetyan was charged with publicly calling for the violent seizure of power after backing the Armenian Apostolic Church, which had been criticized by Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan.

In January, legal proceedings were also launched against Karapetyan on charges of large-scale tax evasion and money laundering.

Separately, in early July 2025, the Armenian parliament approved a bill enabling the nationalization of the Electric Networks of Armenia company.

In March, Armenia’s Constitutional Court ruled that the nationalization process in question complied with the law.

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