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The big surprise of the Venezuelan elections: Brazil still hasn’t recognised Maduro’s victory

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After President Nicolas Maduro was declared elected for the third time in Venezuela, the countries of the Americas were divided over the results.

While Latin American countries led by Argentina and Chile officially claimed that Maduro had ‘stolen the election’, countries such as Cuba and Nicaragua were quick to congratulate the Venezuelan leader on his victory.

This is not surprising, since it is no secret that Argentine leader Javier Milei has been speaking out against Maduro and Bolivarian Venezuela for months, as has the Cuban leadership’s support for Maduro.

What is surprising is that three countries known for their ‘left’ governments have still not recognised Maduro’s victory: Lula’s Brazil, Obrador’s Mexico and Petro’s Colombia.

Three countries are preparing a statement on the ‘lack of transparency’ of the elections

According to Bloomberg, Brazil is in talks with Mexico and Colombia to issue a joint statement demanding that Venezuela count all the votes and publish the results from each electoral district.

The foreign ministries of the three countries, led by leftist presidents with historically close ties to Venezuela’s Nicolas Maduro, refused on Monday to recognise the outcome of Sunday’s election until Caracas takes steps to ensure the transparency of the process.

President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva is unhappy with the situation in Venezuela and believes that Maduro ‘systematically failed to fulfil his promises of transparency’ during the electoral process, officials told Bloomberg.

To underline its dissatisfaction, Brazil’s foreign ministry instructed the country’s ambassador in Caracas not to attend Monday’s ceremony organised by Venezuela’s electoral authority to certify the results.

Brazil and Colombia have been criticising the ‘election’ for months

Lula said last week that Maduro should learn that ‘when you lose an election, you have to go away and prepare for another one’.

Lula also warned that Venezuela’s economic future ‘depends on a clean election, recognised as legitimate by the international community’.

In March, Colombia and Brazil took the unusual step of criticising Venezuela after some members of the Venezuelan opposition said they had been prevented from registering as candidates for the 28 July elections.

In a statement at the time, Colombia’s foreign ministry warned the Maduro government that preventing opposition candidates from taking part in the vote could ‘undermine the confidence of the international community’.

Brazil’s foreign ministry also said it was following the process ‘with concern’, especially as Venezuela had yet to issue a statement on the blocking.

Both countries argued that the opposition’s problems had raised ‘concerns about free and fair elections.

In separate statements, Venezuelan Foreign Minister Yvan Gil accused Colombia and Brazil of interfering in his country’s internal affairs.

Opposition: We have proof we defeated Maduro

Venezuela’s opposition says it has proof that rival Edmundo González defeated Maduro in the presidential election.

González and opposition leader Maria Corina Machado told reporters on Monday that they had received more than 70 per cent of the vote tallies, which show that González received more than 6 million votes, compared with more than 2 million for Maduro.

González and Machado made their claims hours after Venezuela’s Maduro-controlled electoral council announced that the president had won the election with 51 per cent of the vote to González’s 44 per cent.

According to the opposition, the results did not include vote counts from individual polling stations, which election observers said were crucial to determining the accuracy of the vote count.

Opposition also takes to the streets

The announcement of Maduro’s victory just after midnight on Monday sparked angry protests in the capital Caracas and across Venezuela, with people banging pots and pans throughout the night and into the late morning.

Demonstrators clashed with police, who fired tear gas to disperse the crowds. At least one person was killed in the northern province of Yaracuy, according to Voice of America.

Machado called on opposition supporters to organise demonstrations in Caracas on Tuesday.

US ‘concerned’, Biden to meet Lula

We have serious concerns that the announced result does not reflect the will or the votes of the Venezuelan people,’ said US Secretary of State Antony Blinken.

On the other hand, the Biden administration said on Monday that ‘electoral manipulation’ had destroyed ‘any credibility’ of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro’s claim of re-election victory, leaving the door open to new sanctions against the country, Reuters reported.

US officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, said senior aides to President Joe Biden had demanded that Maduro release a detailed breakdown of the vote and that failure to do so would make the international community reluctant to accept the announced result.

The officials did not announce any new “punitive measures” but said Washington would review its sanctions policy against Caracas based on Maduro’s future actions.

“We may be facing a new scenario. We will take that into account as we look at where we can go with sanctions against Venezuela,” one official said.

They argued that the Maduro government had resorted to ‘repression and electoral manipulation’ and said that ‘any credibility of the so-called election results has been destroyed’.

A senior US official said the administration was in contact with Brazil and other Latin American governments about the political situation in Venezuela.

Biden will meet with Brazilian President Lula on Tuesday afternoon, the White House said in a statement.

EU officials meet to discuss Venezuela election

European diplomats will discuss Maduro’s victory in Venezuela’s presidential election today (30 July).

The Council of Europe’s working group on Latin America and the Caribbean will meet at 10.00 Brussels time.

Josep Borrell, the European Union’s top diplomat, wrote in a message on X: ‘The Venezuelan people voted peacefully and in large numbers for the future of their country. Their will must be respected,’ he said.

Borrell added that it was vital to ensure ‘full transparency in the electoral process’, including a detailed vote count and access to voting records at polling stations.

Simon Stano, spokesman for the EU’s diplomatic service, said: ‘We are assessing the election process and results in close contact with national, regional and international actors on the ground. However, we are concerned by allegations of flaws and shortcomings,’ said Simon Stano, spokesperson for the EU diplomatic service.

Elon Musk calls Maduro a ‘dictator’, Maduro responds

Following the presidential election in Venezuela, which saw Maduro and his allies triumph, X owner Elon Musk took to social media to accuse the Venezuelan leader of committing ‘massive electoral fraud’.

Shame on dictator Maduro,” Musk said on Monday.

Musk also retweeted a comment on X from Argentine President Javier Milei, whom he described as his ‘friend’. ‘The numbers have declared the victory of an overwhelming opposition and the world expects the government to concede defeat after years of socialism, misery, collapse and death,’ Milei had said.

Maduro responded by calling Musk ‘the arch-enemy of peace in Venezuela’.

Arguing that Elon Musk was ‘the representative of a fascist ideology, unnatural, anti-society’, Maduro said: ‘Elon Musk is desperate; control yourself. Whoever fights with me will dry up,” he replied, ‘You want to fight? Let’s do it. Elon Musk, I am ready. I’m not afraid of you, Elon Musk. Let’s fight wherever you want,” Maduro said, accusing Musk of wanting to “come with his rockets and his army and invade Venezuela’.

AMERICA

US tariffs on steel and aluminum set to impact $150 billion market

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The 25% tariff on steel and aluminum products imposed by US President Donald Trump’s administration on Wednesday is expected to create upward pressure on prices for approximately $150 billion worth of imports, negatively impacting the profits of American automakers and other companies.

The US imports about one-fifth of the steel it consumes. More than 20% of this import by weight comes from Canada, followed by Brazil at 16%, and the European Union at 7%, with Japan ranking seventh at 4%. Canada is also the largest supplier of aluminum to the US.

Because the direct cost of tariffs falls on importers, this will mean higher costs, especially for manufacturers in the US auto industry.

US-based Wolfe Research anticipates the 25% tariff will drive the price of steel products up by as much as 16% above the 2024 average. Aluminum prices, which are already trending upward, are expected to nearly double.

Nomura Securities research analyst Anindya Das estimates the impact on automakers’ fiscal 2025 operating profits from a 10% increase in steel and aluminum prices compared to the 2024 average. According to this analysis, American players Ford Motor and General Motors will face a hit of approximately 3% to 4% if they cannot pass on their costs through higher prices.

Toyota Motor will experience a smaller decline of 0.5%, while the impact on Subaru, which conducts a large portion of its production in North America, will be around 2%.

Some parts manufacturers affiliated with Toyota bring steel from Japan for use in their US production facilities, and there have been calls for the company to cover the higher costs resulting from the tariffs.

A Toyota executive stated, “Tariffs are a factor outside their control, so we will respond appropriately.”

Japan has pushed to be exempted from the tariffs. “Steel and aluminum products from Japan do not harm the national security of the US,” Cabinet Chief Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi told reporters on Wednesday. “On the contrary, high-quality Japanese products are difficult to substitute and are necessary to make the US manufacturing sector more competitive, and greatly contribute to US industry and employment,” he added.

According to EU-based Global Trade Alert, the tariffs announced by the Trump administration last month cover a total of 289 categories, excluding overlaps between the steel and aluminum lists. These items, which also include kitchen and sporting goods, accounted for approximately 4.5% of the US total last year, with $151 billion in imports.

China was the largest importer at $35 billion, followed by Mexico at $30.6 billion, the EU at $20.3 billion, and Canada at $17.1 billion. Japan ranked seventh at $7 billion. When EU members were counted as separate countries instead of a single bloc, 27 economies had exposures exceeding $500 million.

To avoid tariffs, steel and aluminum exports previously destined for the US may be sold in other markets instead. Jakob Stausholm, CEO of Anglo-Australian iron ore miner Rio Tinto, said last month that selling aluminum in other markets such as Europe was an option.

Tadashi Imai, chairman of the Japan Iron and Steel Federation and president of Nippon Steel, recently stated that the biggest concern is that the tariffs “contribute to the market collapse caused by China’s excessive exports.”

With China’s economy declining, steelmakers are selling products at low prices elsewhere that cannot be absorbed by the domestic market. If they face higher barriers in the US, these goods could flow to other countries.

The US is also the world’s largest exporter of scrap iron and steel, and rising scrap prices leaving the country are likely to reverberate in the global market.

A representative from Japanese aluminum manufacturer UACJ said, “The short-term impact will be small, but it could be larger in the long term.”

Although the company generally produces products for the US domestically, it imports some products with special requirements from Japan in small quantities. According to UACJ, starting alternative production in the US could take three to four years.

Other companies are turning to completely different materials. Coca-Cola stated last month that it would switch some packaging from aluminum to plastic if the tariffs came into effect.

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AMERICA

Trump signs order for ‘strategic crypto reserve’

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US President Donald Trump, in a move aimed at revitalizing the digital assets sector, has signed an executive order authorizing the federal government to stockpile cryptocurrency assets seized through law enforcement agencies.

According to a post on X by David Sacks, the White House’s crypto and artificial intelligence czar, under the executive order, the federal government will retain bitcoin assets seized by federal law enforcement, which will enter a “strategic bitcoin reserve.”

Sacks added that the reserve “will not cost taxpayers a single penny,” further authorizing the Treasury and Commerce departments to “develop budget-neutral strategies to acquire additional bitcoin, provided these strategies do not incur any additional costs on American taxpayers.”

Sacks wrote about bitcoin, “The reserve is like a digital Fort Knox. The early sale of Bitcoin has already cost US taxpayers over $17 billion in lost value. Now, the federal government will have a strategy to maximize the value of its holdings.”

The order also established a separate “US Digital Asset Stockpile” to include other cryptocurrencies seized by the government. Earlier this week, Trump hinted at the possibility of including tokens such as Ripple’s XRP, Solana, and Cardano, alongside bitcoin and ether, in what he termed the “Crypto Strategic Reserve,” causing the prices of these tokens to rise with investors’ hopes that the US government would enter the market as a major buyer of digital assets.

However, crypto prices fell immediately after Sacks’s post and recovered shortly thereafter. According to CoinGecko data, as of 4:45 PM (presumably local time, though unspecified), bitcoin was trading at approximately $88,000, down 2.8% from the previous 24 hours.

The creation of the reserve and stockpile is part of a broad shift in Washington towards policies aimed at benefiting the crypto industry. It comes ahead of a crypto summit to be held at the White House on Friday, which will be attended by leading figures in the digital assets world.

For supporters, the bitcoin reserve is a chance for the US to participate in the growth of the original cryptocurrency, and many in the market believe that the market is poised to climb higher as Trump pursues a crypto-friendly regulatory agenda.

Yet, there are still many questions about how the reserve and stockpile will operate. For example, some critics doubt that the federal government can cash in its bitcoin holdings without spooking other investors and triggering a sell-off.

Trump first promised to create a crypto reserve during a speech at a major bitcoin conference in July.

Sacks said, “I want to thank the President for his leadership and vision in supporting this cutting-edge technology and for his swift action in supporting the digital asset industry. His administration is truly moving at ‘technology speed’.”

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BlackRock to acquire Panama Canal ports in major deal

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New York-based asset management giant BlackRock announced on Tuesday that it will acquire two ports serving the Panama Canal from Hong Kong’s CK Hutchinson, as part of a larger $22.8 billion deal.

US President Donald Trump had threatened to regain control of the Panama Canal, believing that US ships were not being treated fairly due to Chinese influence. This deal could potentially alleviate those concerns.

The ports will be acquired by a consortium that includes BlackRock, as well as Global Infrastructure Partners and Terminal Investment Limited.

Hutchinson’s official statement said the deal was “completely unrelated to recent political news regarding the Panama Ports,” and that the deal was the result of a “fast” process.

BlackRock declined to comment further, but sources say the firm has informed both the White House and Congress about the deal.

According to the *Financial Times* (*FT*), CEO Larry Fink himself informed senior leaders in the Trump administration, including the president, to secure their support for the takeover, in order to overcome possible political obstacles.

A source added that the consortium would not have proceeded with its offer if it believed the US government would not support the deal.

The deal consists of two parts, one of which covers Hutchinson’s 90% stake in the ownership and operation of the Balboa and Cristobal ports in Panama.

This transaction will be conducted separately from the second part, which covers 43 ports in 23 countries, including Germany and the United Kingdom, and 80% of the shares will be sold. Hutchinson’s ports in China are not included.

The remaining 20% stake is held by PSA, a port operator owned by Singapore’s sovereign wealth fund Temasek.

BlackRock did not provide an estimated closing date, likely due to the number of different regulators whose opinions will need to be sought. The deal is expected to be formally signed by April 2.

CK Hutchison, controlled by Hong Kong’s richest man, Li Ka-shing, and his family, has a portfolio consisting of ports, retail, telecom, and other infrastructure. Port operations account for approximately 9% of CK Hutchison’s total revenue of HKD 461.6 billion (USD 593.97 billion) in 2023.

Hutchison Ports, one of the world’s largest container terminal operators, has been managing the ports at both ends of the canal since 1997 under concessions from the Panamanian government.

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