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Trump panic in Germany sparks calls for EU independence

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As Donald Trump prepares to begin his second term as US President, panic signals are emerging from the heart of Europe.

Former German Foreign Minister Sigmar Gabriel, for instance, is urging the next German government to shift its foreign policy direction and transform the EU into an independent power.

To achieve this, Gabriel told the Springer Group newspaper Bild on Sunday that the ‘power triangle between France, Germany, and Poland’ (the ‘Weimar Triangle’) should be reinforced.

Economists like Marcel Fratzscher, President of the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW) in Berlin, share similar views. Fratzscher stated that ‘Europe must be strengthened’ and criticized the German government and the European Commission for being ‘as poorly prepared as possible’ for Trump’s inauguration.

According to Gabriel Felbermayr, Director of the Austrian Institute for Economic Research (WIFO), the EU is already in a precarious position: Brussels is economically weakened and reliant on US liquefied natural gas (LNG), which gives Trump ‘a few bad trump cards.’

Secret memorandum from the German Ambassador: Warning of ‘maximum destruction’ that could redefine the constitutional order

Meanwhile, a secret memorandum written by German Ambassador to the United States Andreas Michaelis warns of a ‘maximum degradation’ agenda that could redefine the American constitutional order.

The document, obtained by Reuters and addressed to German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, expresses concern about the ‘erosion of democratic norms’ in Trump’s second administration.

Michaelis describes Trump’s vision as centered on ‘the maximum concentration of power in the president at the expense of Congress and the [US] states.’

According to the document, key democratic institutions, including the legislature, law enforcement, and the media, risk losing their independence and becoming ‘abused as a political arm.’

The memo also highlights the involvement of Big Tech companies, which Michaelis argues could be given ‘the power to govern together.’

Michaelis notes that recent US Supreme Court decisions expanding presidential powers could enable Trump to bypass traditional checks and balances.

The document also raises concerns about Trump’s ability to exploit legal loopholes for political purposes. These include the possibility of using the military domestically in the event of an ‘uprising’ or ‘invasion,’ which would push the limits of the Posse Comitatus Act of 1878.

Tariff threat gives Europe a headache

The EU could already be seriously damaged by the bitter dispute over Greenland and the threat of US tariffs, which may force German companies to relocate their investments to the US.

From Washington’s perspective under the new Trump administration, the case of Greenland is not just about weakening Denmark but also the EU as a whole.

In particular, Trump’s foreign policy is further obstructing Berlin and Paris’s plans to become a world power on par with the US with the help of the EU.

Trump is also seeking to shift the balance within the transatlantic alliance. The plan to impose tariffs on all US imports, including those from the EU, is an extension of this strategy.

German business leaders think Trump is being ‘criticized too much’

The Cologne-based German Institute for Economics (IW), closely aligned with the German business community, estimates that this could reduce Germany’s economic output by up to 1.5 percent in both 2027 and 2028.

According to a recent survey of 500 German executives, 80 percent of respondents said the German economy would suffer from Trump’s actions. Of these, 68 percent expect ‘some’ damage, while 12 percent anticipate ‘great damage.’

However, 75 percent of the business leaders surveyed believe that there is ‘too much criticism’ of Trump in Germany.

Forty-four percent of respondents expect tech giant Elon Musk’s new Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) in the US to not only reduce government staff but also cut regulations that are burdensome for companies.

Moritz Schularick, President of the Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), recently stated that individual companies would have the opportunity to make profitable investments ‘no longer in Germany but in the USA’ and warned that this would be an ‘additional burden’ for the Federal Republic of Germany.

Europe criticized for ‘not being ready for Trump’

Gabriel Felbermayr, former IfW President and current Director of the Austrian Institute for Economic Research (WIFO), argued that the EU is currently suffering from a ‘marked weakness in growth,’ making it fragile.

Additionally, the war in Ukraine is increasing the ‘bargaining power of the Americans,’ and the cutoff of Russian gas is reinforcing Europe’s dependence on American LNG.

With a share of around 20 percent, the U has become the EU’s second-largest natural gas supplier after Norway. In 2024, Germany imported around 13.5 percent of its natural gas from the US; 86 percent of German terminals, which supply 8 percent of total German demand, were filled with US LNG.

Felbermayr noted that if Trump threatens to restrict LNG export licenses, liquefied natural gas prices in Europe will rise, while those in the US will fall.

According to Felbermayr, Trump has ‘a few more bad trump cards’ today than he did eight years ago.

Europe calls for ‘one voice’ against the US

Marcel Fratzscher, President of the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW) in Berlin, also accused Germany of being ‘miserably prepared’ for the Trump era.

According to Fratzscher, Germany is ‘a small country compared to the US’, and will lose in this conflict if Europe ‘fails to speak with one voice.’

He argued that Berlin had been ‘staring blankly’ for at least six months and that Germany was only thinking about domestic politics, not ‘how it wants to position itself globally or how it can strengthen Europe.’

Fratzscher stated that this positioning is ‘urgently needed’ to have a minimum level of protection against Donald Trump. He criticized the lack of a ‘strategy’ for the German government or the European Commission to stand shoulder to shoulder in disagreements with the Trump administration, pointing to a ‘great division in Europe.’

The DIW President criticized Brussels for being ‘as unprepared as possible’ for Trump’s second term, despite having ‘really had enough time’ to ‘prepare in detail’ for an ‘intelligent counter-offensive’ at the EU level against Trump’s attacks, which had long been clearly foreseeable.

Sigmar Gabriel calls for a ‘quick change of course’

On the occasion of Trump’s inauguration, former Foreign Minister Sigmar Gabriel is calling for a rapid change of course.

In an article for Bild, published on January 19, Gabriel called for ‘preparing for a completely different US president’ than at the beginning of 2017.

At that time, Trump was ill-prepared, and the professionals in Washington ‘quickly got him under control,’ Gabriel said, emphasizing that the new president is following a clear plan this time.

‘It is clear that we Europeans … need the United States as a partner: economically, politically, and militarily,’ the German politician wrote, describing the move against Greenland, for example, as ‘a precursor to his well-known strategy of resorting to political provocations to better enforce serious demands.’

Gabriel argued that it is necessary to cooperate with Trump but, at the same time, ‘above all, to work on Europe’s economic, political, and military strength.’ He called it ‘unfortunate’ that the EU lacks a political center.

The French-German-Polish power triaangle, which could act as the center of Europe, has been ‘criminally neglected for years’ by the German government, Gabriel argued. He concluded that the next chancellor must, therefore, ‘first and foremost, change the course of foreign policy.’

Gabriel emphasized that this is about ‘finally transforming the EU into a power that is also taken seriously or simply recognized by Donald Trump.’

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US officials’ visit to Greenland sparks controversy amid political tensions

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As negotiations to form a new government continue in Greenland, a Danish territory, following recent elections, senior officials from the Trump administration are scheduled to visit the island next week.

According to individuals familiar with the trip who spoke to the Financial Times (FT), US National Security Advisor Mike Waltz, Usha Vance (wife of Vice Presidential candidate J.D. Vance), and the Secretaries of Defense and Energy will be in Greenland from Thursday to Saturday for a “private visit.”

A source familiar with the visit confirmed that Waltz and Energy Secretary Chris Wright will tour the US military installation, Pituffik Space Base, in Greenland.

Danish and Greenlandic officials have indicated they are open to an increased US presence on the island but are not receptive to a takeover of the base.

The FT reported that the visit has caused consternation among Greenlandic and Danish officials. Jens-Frederik Nielsen, the leader of Demokraatit, which won this month’s elections, stated that the timing of the visit, amidst ongoing coalition negotiations and local elections, “once again shows a lack of respect for the people of Greenland.”

Greenland’s outgoing Prime Minister, Múte Egede, added that the visit “cannot in any way be described as a harmless visit by the wife of a politician” and that its “sole purpose is a show of force against us.”

US President Donald Trump has repeatedly expressed his desire to acquire the Arctic island and has even considered the possibility of using military force to take it over from the NATO ally. Trump’s eldest son, Donald Jr., also visited the island in January for a “private visit.”

Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen responded to the new US visit, stating that it “cannot be seen independently of the public statements” made by Trump and other officials.

“As the Kingdom of Denmark, we want to cooperate with the Americans. But this must be a cooperation based on fundamental values such as sovereignty and respect between countries and peoples. We are serious about this issue,” Frederiksen said.

Trump and other US officials have hailed the results of the Greenlandic parliamentary elections, seemingly equating the voters’ preference for pro-independence parties with a desire for ‘Americanization.’ However, a recent poll showed that only 6% of Greenlanders want to join the US, while 85% are opposed.

All leaders of the current parties represented in the island’s parliament also condemned Trump’s behavior as “unacceptable.” Aaja Chemnitz, a Greenlandic member of the Danish parliament, told Danish television that the visit was an “untimely interference” in the island’s politics so soon after the elections.

“Anyone who tries to interfere but is not part of Greenlandic society should stay away. We are going through a particularly challenging period in Greenland’s history because we are very much affected by what is happening abroad,” Chemnitz said.

Martin Lidegaard, a former Danish minister and current opposition MP, said the visit crossed the acceptable line for both Denmark and Greenland.

“It will now be crucial for Denmark and Greenland to act together,” Lidegaard added.

Usha Vance’s office confirmed that she would be traveling with her son and a US delegation “to visit historical sites, learn about Greenlandic heritage, and attend Avannaata Qimussersu, Greenland’s national dog sled race.”

The organization behind the dog sled race told Greenlandic media that it had received a large but undisclosed sum of money from the US consulate in Nuuk, Greenland’s capital.

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Germany considers transferring Nord Stream 2 to US control

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In Germany, discussions are underway regarding the potential transfer of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline to US control. The pipeline became unusable following sabotage in September 2022. The aim is to resume the flow of Russian gas to Europe.

According to a report by Bild newspaper, negotiations are ongoing to reach an agreement.

Meanwhile, some politicians from the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), led by Friedrich Merz, who was recently elected as prime minister, have suggested that natural gas imports from Russia could resume after the war in Ukraine ends.

CDU Member of Parliament Thomas Bareiss stated that Nord Stream 2 could be used for supplies, saying, “If peace is restored, relations normalize, and embargoes gradually ease, then, of course, gas could flow again, perhaps through a pipeline now under US control.”

Jan Heinisch, the deputy chairman of the CDU group in the North Rhine-Westphalia State Parliament, also stated that Germany should consider buying Russian gas again if a “fair and reliable” peace agreement is signed in Ukraine.

Heinisch added, “Whether this will be done by sea or via a pipeline remains to be seen.”

At the same time, Heinisch emphasized that Germany should not be dependent on a single supplier and should avoid situations where prices are “dictated.”

Heinisch is involved in developing the energy policy of the future ruling coalition consisting of the CDU, CSU, and SPD.

On the other hand, Free Democratic Party (FDP) Member of Parliament Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann claimed that the CDU is “already making efforts” to resume natural gas imports from Russia, undermining the country’s hard-won energy independence from Russia.

However, there are those within the CDU who do not want such cooperation to resume.

Party member Ruprecht Polenz said, “Vladimir Putin’s Russia can never be trusted again, and Donald Trump has shaken confidence in America. Therefore, the coalition agreement should rule out the reactivation of the Nord Stream pipeline.”

CDU foreign policy expert Roderich Kiesewetter also criticized this step.

Kiesewetter said, “Those who have always opposed sanctions, those who want Nord Stream to work again and want to pounce on cheap Russian gas again, those who do not care about the genocide suffered by the Ukrainian people, each of them would be extremely pleased with such a rapprochement.”

In addition, SPD Member of Parliament Michael Roth stated that Bareiss’s proposal was an inappropriate signal at the wrong time, coming from someone who had “obviously learned nothing from recent history.”

The German Ministry of Economy, led by Robert Habeck of the Green Party, stated that Nord Stream 2 has not been approved and has not received legal approval, and “there is no question of operating it at the moment.”

The party itself described Bareiss’s statement as “scandalous,” saying, “If Germany starts buying gas from Russia again, it would mean rewarding President Vladimir Putin for his war of aggression.”

Sources speaking to Bild newspaper previously reported that Richard Grenell, the former US Ambassador to Berlin and currently Trump’s special envoy, had traveled unofficially to Switzerland a number of times to discuss the commissioning of Nord Stream 2.

The headquarters of Nord Stream 2 AG, the operator of the pipeline, is located in this country.

The sources claimed that the American side wanted to mediate the supply of Russian gas to Germany, but only at the level of private companies.

Prior to this, sources interviewed by the Financial Times had said that Matthias Warnig, the former CEO of Nord Stream 2 AG, was trying to reactivate Nord Stream 2 with the help of an American investor consortium that had drafted an agreement with Gazprom if sanctions were lifted.

A former senior US official familiar with the matter said, “The US will say, ‘Russia can be trusted now because there are reliable Americans involved.'”

The official added that if everything goes well, American investors will start making money “without doing anything.”

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Europe plans for US absence in NATO with 5-10 year strategy

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Europe’s major military powers are formulating plans to assume greater responsibility for the continent’s defense, reducing reliance on the United States.

According to a report in the Financial Times (FT), these discussions are driven by fears of a unilateral US withdrawal from NATO, exacerbated by repeated threats from former President Donald Trump to weaken or abandon the transatlantic alliance. The aim is to avoid the chaos that such a withdrawal could cause.

Four European officials familiar with the matter indicated that Germany, the United Kingdom, France, and the Scandinavian countries are among those engaged in these informal discussions.

The FT reports that their objective is to devise a plan that shifts the financial and military burden towards European capitals. The intention is to present this plan to the US before NATO’s annual leaders’ summit in The Hague in June.

The proposal would include firm commitments from Europe to increase defense spending and enhance military capabilities, with the goal of persuading Trump to accept a gradual handover that would allow the US to focus more on Asia.

Since Trump’s election, countries such as Germany, France, and the UK have moved to increase defense spending or accelerate already planned increases. The EU has also launched initiatives to boost military investments among its member states.

Officials estimate that it would take approximately 5 to 10 years of increased spending to elevate Europe’s capabilities to a level where they could replace most US competencies, excluding US nuclear deterrence.

One source stated, “Increasing spending is our only leverage: burden-sharing and moving away from dependence on the US. We are beginning these discussions, but the task is so enormous that many are overwhelmed by its magnitude.”

While US diplomats have assured their European counterparts that Trump will remain committed to NATO membership and Article 5’s mutual defense clause, many European capitals worry that the White House might rapidly reduce troop or equipment deployments or withdraw from NATO’s joint missions.

Officials noted that some capitals are hesitant to participate in burden-sharing talks, fearing it might encourage the US to act more quickly, while others believe that despite Trump’s rhetoric, he does not intend to make significant changes to the US presence in Europe.

Others are skeptical that the Trump administration, given its unpredictable nature, would even agree to a structured process.

One official questioned, “You need an agreement with the Americans, and it’s not clear whether they will be willing to do that. Can you even trust that they would stick to an agreement?”

Officials highlight ongoing and regular discussions, led by France and Britain, about establishing a “coalition of the willing” to support Ukraine in its war against Russia and to invest in European defense.

These discussions among more than ten European defense powers do not include the US.

When asked what a European pillar within NATO would mean and whether it is feasible, a senior Western official responded, “We are seeing it now: the UK and France are taking the initiative [on a guarantee force for Ukraine] without the Americans.”

NATO officials argue that maintaining the alliance with less or no US involvement is much simpler than creating a new structure, given the difficulty of recreating or renegotiating the existing military plans, capability targets, rules, command structure, and Article 5 for the continent’s defense.

Officials stated that for Europe’s core defense, the UK and other Atlantic maritime powers, the Scandinavian countries for the north of the continent, and Türkiye for the southeast defense will always be needed.

Marion Messmer, a research fellow in international security at Chatham House, noted, “Even without the US, NATO provides a structure for security cooperation in Europe. There are aspects that would need to be replaced if the US were to leave. But it provides a framework and infrastructure that Europeans are really familiar with. It does so much of the work that you would have to do from scratch if you were just setting up a different type of structure for just European members.”

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