Diplomacy
Trump proposes using private security firms in Ukraine as part of a peace plan
American private security companies could be sent to Ukraine as part of a long-term “peace plan.”
In this context, US President Donald Trump is in discussions with European allies about allowing security companies to help build fortifications to protect American interests in the country.
This plan, reported by The Telegraph, is designed as a solution following the US president’s promise that American troops will not be deployed in Ukraine.
American companies could be sent to help rebuild Ukraine’s front-line defenses and new bases, as well as to protect American businesses.
According to the US, the presence of private security personnel would deter Russia from breaking a future ceasefire.
The plan is being discussed alongside a series of other security guarantees prepared by a coalition led by the United Kingdom and France, which will form the basis of the long-term peace plan.
The final details, which include air policing, training, and Black Sea naval missions, could be announced this weekend following weeks of diplomatic activity after Trump’s talks with Vladimir Putin in Alaska.
Trump’s green light for ‘security guarantees’ gives hope to Europeans
European military planners have accelerated their work after Trump told continental leaders that Putin was open to Western allies offering security guarantees to Ukraine.
The American leader has also agreed to support this mission, which could become one of the most significant overseas missions since the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq.
European officials have said that the key strategy to prevent future conflict is to make the war-damaged Ukrainian armed forces the main deterrent by rebuilding them.
According to the plan, Ukrainian troops will defend a fortified border on the front line, as agreed upon in any peace deal.
Kyiv’s forces will be rearmed and trained by European NATO allies using existing and new mechanisms.
For example, Ukraine could continue to purchase US systems like Patriot air defense batteries or Himars rocket launchers using funds provided by European allies.
Afghanistan and Iraq experience: Private companies on the front lines
Fortifications on the front line and nearby bases could be built by American private military companies, as was done in Iraq and Afghanistan.
The presence of American companies in Ukraine will be seen as a major boost for European powers seeking American support for a final peace agreement.
According to sources, their deployment would mean the White House has a stake in the matter, increasing the deterrent effect against a Russian attack for fear of US retaliation.
Discussions about using American private security companies date back to a joint agreement signed between Washington and Kyiv to extract Ukraine’s rich mineral and rare earth element resources.
The White House continues to oppose sending its own troops to Ukraine but has agreed to provide extensive support to European forces to back any peace agreement.
A British government source argued that private American companies “put American ‘boots on the ground,’ meaning American passport holders, which is an effective deterrent for Putin.”
Trump also hopes to appease his ‘MAGA’ base
Officials stated that by using private security companies, Trump would not only address the concerns of his “MAGA” (Make America Great Again) supporters who are against foreign intervention but also secure another “business deal” to champion.
Some European countries have proposed the idea of creating an unarmed buffer zone to separate Ukrainian and Russian forces once the conflict ends. This zone could be monitored by peacekeepers or observers as agreed upon by Kyiv and Moscow in any peace deal.
Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelenskyy will likely request the deployment of European troops to this zone. The Kremlin has suggested China as a security guarantor in the peace treaty negotiations.
According to the Financial Times (FT), Trump also proposed the deployment of Chinese soldiers as peacekeepers in post-war Ukraine during his meeting with European leaders last week.
The differences between the warring countries mean that this option is unlikely to be accepted by all parties.
This idea, first floated by Putin, was rejected by Europe and had previously been dismissed by Zelenskyy due to Beijing’s “support for Russia’s war effort.”
European countries insist they will not place their soldiers on the front line between the Ukrainian and Russian armies.
Responding to reports about the possibility of a buffer zone, Zelenskyy said that if the Russians want to create more distance between themselves and Ukrainian forces, they can withdraw.
Europe has downsized its proposal for a 30,000-strong force
A European-led force could be deployed deeper inside Ukraine to form a third line of defense should Russia decide to invade.
This force would primarily serve as another deterrent, consisting of thousands of European soldiers.
“The main goal is to show Ukraine that if Russia invades again, we will fight with you,” an official said.
Dozens of countries have informed their counterparts that they are ready to participate in this deployment. These include the United Kingdom, France, Germany, and Belgium, as well as Baltic, Scandinavian, and Nordic countries.
The deployment of approximately 30,000 European soldiers had been previously discussed. A source added that this number appears to have been reduced due to a lack of resources and concerns that it might be perceived as “too powerful” in Putin’s eyes.
Regarding the talks, officials said that offers of support for the mission are often not backed by concrete commitments on how they might participate.
The Telegraph previously reported that this assurance force would only be deployed in Ukraine for 5 to 10 years, or until the involved countries are confident that the Ukrainian military can defend itself.
No-fly zone discussions
European countries are in talks to establish a no-fly zone so that Ukraine can safely reopen its commercial aviation routes.
According to The Telegraph, this plan could be implemented in stages: for example, starting from the west and gradually covering more airspace until the entire country is safe enough for commercial air travel.
Allowing air travel to resume is seen as a key element for boosting investment in the country and is also thought to help refugees return home.
Initially, the mission, which will be carried out using Western fighter jets and ground-based air defense systems, will aim to open Lviv and other Ukrainian airports in the west of the country.
As confidence in the sustainability of ceasefire agreements grows, the mission will be expanded eastward toward Kyiv and other cities.
Türkiye to lead the ‘task force’ in the Black Sea
According to the plans, Türkiye will lead a naval mission in the Black Sea to ensure the security of commercial shipping routes to and from Ukraine.
Kyiv has managed to keep its wartime shipping corridors open, and the operation will re-establish more routes through Western naval patrols.
The mission, supported by Black Sea countries Bulgaria and Romania, will also lead mine-clearing efforts in the waters.
Romania is purchasing naval vessels from Turkish shipyards as it prepares to play a more significant role in the region.
To limit the conflict in the region, Türkiye has blocked access to the Black Sea for both Russian ships and the new vessels promised to Ukraine by Western allies.
European countries will continue to train Ukrainian soldiers
The most likely deployment in Europe will be the relocation of military trainers to new bases in Western Ukraine.
This idea was first proposed last year by French President Emmanuel Macron due to concerns about a large number of Ukrainian soldiers deserting from training camps in his country.
A former US official said the idea was rejected at the time by Joe Biden on the grounds that it risked escalation.
However, this year, the idea has been revived under pressure from Trump to create a peace plan aimed at providing another deterrent against a “new Russian invasion.”
The training forces will also accelerate the process of rearming and restructuring the Ukrainian armed forces to create a “steel hedgehog” effect on the front line.
According to current plans, alongside France’s mission, the United Kingdom’s training program, Operation Interflex, will also likely be moved to Western Ukraine.
Never without the US: The flow of weapons continues
US logistical support for any European military deployment is seen as a prerequisite for the security guarantees.
European officials believe that Washington is receptive to requests for assistance in the form of American heavy-lift aircraft to move equipment and troops east into Ukraine.
This will also help maintain the flow of Western weapons to Ukraine. In recent weeks, European countries have committed to purchasing at least $10 billion worth of American-made military equipment for Kyiv.
Ukraine has also submitted a proposal promising to purchase an additional $90 billion worth of hardware when the war ends.
In preparation, the US State Department had approved a potential sale of air-launched cruise missiles and related equipment to Ukraine for an estimated $825 million.
The potential sale of 3,350 extended-range attack munition (ERAM) missiles, which could be delivered to Kyiv within weeks, includes GPS guidance kits and electronic warfare defense systems for weapons with a range of “several hundred” miles.
The Pentagon announced on Thursday that the package also includes support equipment, mission planning software, spare parts, and technical support.
American intelligence called to duty
Officials said that another prerequisite for any deployment in Europe would be an offer of American intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) support.
European countries lack the necessary satellite capacity to adequately monitor a ceasefire. In addition to supporting local forces, intelligence assistance will be key to the success of the air policing mission.
Trump had temporarily withdrawn ISR support provided to Kyiv following a dispute with Zelenskyy in the Oval Office. This decision was linked to the Ukrainian armed forces rapidly losing their presence in Russia’s Kursk region.
The Pentagon reportedly did not provide the full intelligence needed by Ukraine to conduct cross-border missile strikes, effectively creating an American veto over such plans.
A source told The Telegraph that US officials also asked the British Ministry of Defence not to share intelligence on this matter while Trump’s peace talks with Putin were ongoing.
Europe’s lack of coordination experience is a headache
Europe also lacks experience in coordinating large military missions, a task that has mostly been left to American generals.
European and American officials have discussed the possibility of appointing a US military commander to oversee all deployments under the peace plan.
There is talk that NATO’s top commander, US General Alexus Grynkewich, could be appointed to this role if the idea is approved by Trump.
The White House has already approved his involvement in the recent intensive military planning, which is seen as one of the biggest signs of the president’s support for the security guarantees from European allies.
By giving Grynkewich a larger role, the coalition will benefit from pre-existing plans to defend the continent against Russia and from additional American support for any security guarantees.
Diplomacy
Greece’s Marinakis says paying Hormuz transit fees beats enduring Red Sea shipping crisis detour
Evangelos Marinakis, one of Greece’s leading shipowners, has announced that he is prepared to pay up to $200,000 per transit to keep the Strait of Hormuz open to civilian maritime traffic.
Speaking to the Financial Times, Marinakis stated that paying a transit fee would be a far better option for him than having the strait closed to navigation.
As the chairman of Capital Maritime Group, which controls a fleet of 185 vessels including approximately 35 tankers, Marinakis emphasized that shipowners have been forced to use alternative routes around the Cape of Good Hope for years due to attacks launched by the Houthis in the Red Sea, a detour that has generated substantial additional costs.
The Greek shipowner indicated that paying a transit fee of $100,000 or $200,000, depending on the size of the cargo or the vessel, is far more reasonable than enduring the current logistical challenges. He added that such payments could offset all the losses experienced so far.
Following US strikes on Iran and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the Tehran administration had introduced transit fees of up to $2 million for certain vessels transiting the waterway.
In May, Iran announced the establishment of a state agency tasked with managing the Strait of Hormuz. It was stated that the institution in question would provide real-time updates regarding maritime activities in the waterway.
Ebrahim Azizi, the chairman of the Iranian Parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy Commission, had noted that only commercial vessels and countries cooperating with Iran would be able to benefit from the facilities provided under this “professional mechanism.”
US President Donald Trump has explicitly opposed the imposition of transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz. In a statement on the matter, Trump said, “We want the strait to be open. We do not want any transit fees to be charged. This is an international waterway.”
On the other hand, the draft text of a planned 60-day ceasefire extension agreement between the parties stipulates that the Strait of Hormuz will remain open without any transit fees being demanded.
According to the draft details reviewed by Axios, the US in return commits to lifting the blockade it has imposed on Iranian ports. The Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, however, announced that the management of the Strait of Hormuz has been excluded from the scope of the agreement with the US, asserting that the issue will be addressed solely by littoral states.
Diplomacy
Pashinyan promises aid to farmers hit by Russian import restrictions
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has pledged compensation for Armenian farmers affected by restrictions on exports to Russia.
According to Sputnik Armenia, Pashinyan made the announcement during an election campaign meeting in the Gegharkunik region.
Speaking at the event, Pashinyan said the subsidies would be designed to offset losses incurred by producers.
The prime minister also acknowledged that some Armenian products had failed to meet required quality standards, adding that such companies would receive support aimed at improving product quality.
Addressing alternative markets for Armenian exports, Pashinyan said several Armenian business delegations were already engaged in negotiations abroad.
He added that Armenia had received offers for the purchase of roses as well as fresh fruits and vegetables.
Pashinyan argued that Armenia’s agricultural output was not particularly large, describing this as an advantage under current circumstances. According to the prime minister, “a respected supermarket chain in Europe” would be capable of selling the entire volume of these products on its own.
Russia’s Federal Service for Veterinary and Phytosanitary Surveillance (Rosselkhoznadzor) imposed temporary restrictions on imports of stone fruits and grapes from Armenia effective July 2.
The ban covers cherries, sour cherries, apricots, plums, peaches and nectarines, among other products.
On the same day, a temporary suspension was also introduced on certification procedures for live fish shipments from Armenia. Russian authorities had previously restricted the entry of flower products originating from Armenia into the Russian market.
In addition, Russia’s Federal Service for Surveillance on Consumer Rights Protection and Human Wellbeing (Rospotrebnadzor) halted the import of all consignments of Jermuk mineral water from Armenia.
In a statement, the agency said levels of bicarbonate, chloride and sulfate ions in the mineral water exceeded established limits and could mislead consumers regarding the product’s medicinal properties.
The Russian regulator argued that the growing number of violations stemmed from the abolition of Armenia’s Agriculture Ministry and the transfer of its responsibilities to the Economy Ministry.
Rosselkhoznadzor further stated that Armenia’s Economy Ministry was experiencing structural problems and was unable to adequately perform the supervisory functions assigned to it.
Diplomacy
Zelenskyy urges US to grant Ukraine license to produce Patriot missiles
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he has asked the United States to grant Ukraine a license to manufacture missiles for the Patriot air defence system.
In a post on social media platform X, Zelenskyy argued that current US production of missile defence interceptors is insufficient and could contribute to crises in different parts of the world.
“Producing 60-65 missiles a month is nothing compared with the challenges we face today. This is no secret, and Russia knows it as well,” Zelenskyy wrote. “We need to expand production. As I requested from the previous US administration, I am asking the current administration to grant Ukraine a license to produce Patriot missiles.”
Zelenskyy said US companies possess advanced technologies that are not available in Ukraine, while Kyiv could contribute its extensive battlefield experience in return.
He also argued that granting such a license would benefit not only Ukraine, but also the Middle East and any country Washington chooses to support.
Washington pledges to maintain defence support
Zelenskyy’s remarks came a day after US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said on May 30 that Washington would continue supporting Ukraine’s defence capabilities and ensure military shipments to Kyiv continue.
“We want them to be able to defend themselves, and we will find a way to help them do that,” Hegseth said.
Several days earlier, Yuriy Ihnat, spokesperson for the Ukrainian Air Force, warned that the country’s air defence forces were experiencing a shortage of missiles.
“Due to certain supply problems, we are practically at starvation levels when it comes to missiles today,” Ihnat said.
Concerns persist over air defence missile stocks
In April, Zelenskyy warned that Ukraine’s stockpile of air defence missiles could be exhausted at any moment.
He said that under current conditions, air defence missiles were more critical for Ukraine than the air defence systems themselves.
Highlighting what he described as a critical shortage of Patriot missiles, Zelenskyy said: “We are facing a deficit now that could hardly be worse.”
Concerns that Ukraine could face a severe shortage of US-made air defence missiles had previously been reported by Reuters.
The situation was expected to worsen as the United States and its allies depleted significant portions of their arsenals during tensions with Iran, a point Zelenskyy also underscored.
In a separate statement in January, Zelenskyy said Ukraine lacked sufficient missiles for both US- and European-made air defence systems.
The Ukrainian leader said he had been forced to personally secure every package of missiles from European countries and the United States.
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