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Trump’s return to power: Tehran is in the throes of fear and hope

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Undoubtedly, the news of Donald Trump’s victory as the 47th president-elect of the United States is without a doubt deafening for the Islamic Republic of Iran, because in the four years of his last-time as president in the White House, Tehran was in dire straits in every way.

Qassem Soleimani, Iranian major general and commander of the IRGC Quds Force, was assassinated by Trump’s order in Baghdad, the capital city of Iraq in January 2020. Trump was also ordered to put the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) of Iran on the blacklist of the US. In the same way, what the administrations of Barack Obama and Hassan Rouhani under the name of “JCPOA” were with great difficulty, carelessly cottoned them in the blink of an eye and even in the context did not respect the point of view of his country’s western allies (European Troika).

However, Trump did not stop there and tried to further isolate Iran by supporting Israel, Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Now that Trump has become the ruler again, it is obvious that what it has done against Tehran is circulating in the minds of Iranians again, and it evokes the fear that it may repeat the same path.

We don’t speak pessimistically. We discussed Trump’s possible confrontation with Iran that he may not act as he did in the past, but the point is how Iran will react or take action if Trump did not change.

Iran is ready to face Trump

It is important to know whether the Iranian side is ready to deal with Trump or not? If Iran is ready, to what extent? Of course, this is in the case that the American side gives a green light, otherwise, it is not possible. Since Tehran has received severe wounds by Trump, it is not unlikely that it will go to him with a green light. Anyway, the argument is aimed at proving the interaction-seeking tendency of Iran’s 14th government with Trump’s second government, which is explained below:

First:

It’s true that when Trump first entered the White House, no one knew him well. Maybe the Americans didn’t know it right either, because he suddenly entered the field of politics, he quickly won and achieved what he wanted. During his first election campaign and after winning, numerous articles and books were written about him, but when he went to the White House, he took actions that worried even the Western allies of his own country.

Qassem Soleimani, Iranian major general and commander of the IRGC Quds Force, was assassinated by Trump’s order in Iraq.

Therefore, from then on, his behavior is called unpredictable and what he says is mostly viewed with skepticism. Now, Trump’s four-year record is like a mirror before the eyes of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Of course, no country knows him better than Iran.

In the past, Tehran bowed its back under the pressure of Trump because it did not know him well and was always faced with actions which were already executed by the then Trump administration. Now that Tehran knows Trump, it is trying to reduce its level of effectiveness of what he is doing. Maybe this recognition will encourage the parties to agree to a new deal.

Second:

The fact is that Iran is in a situation where it cannot deal with Trump’s adventure. The inflammatory situation of the region is not to his benefit but to his detriment. It is true that Trump is a deal maker, but he is not a joker. The so-called “axis of resistance” in the Middle East has lost its former hegemony.

For example, Hamas, which was a strong bulwark against Israel, has been weakened and its future is unclear. Although Hezbollah has not been weakened to that extent, it is in unprecedented trouble, and it is not clear to what extent the implementation of UN Security Council Resolution 1701 will limit its “scope of action”.

Israel is also standing by the sword and if there is no apparent pressure from the White House, it will not hesitate to enter into a “decisive war” with Tehran. Considering the above cases, the Iranian side, understanding its prohibitions and the knowledge it has gained from Trump, is not disinterested in tuning the instrument of reconciliation with the USA.

Third:

If we pay attention to Trump’s election and non-election speeches, we can call him a “peace seeker”. Of course, his pacifism comes from his economic concern.” When he says he will end wars in the world, he means that his country’s economy will not suffer. In his election campaigns, he constantly emphasized the economy and used it as a tool to pressure his rival.

Even when he brings up the story of immigrants, his intention is that their presence harms the US economy. If Trump is serious in his pacifism, he can end the war in Gaza and Lebanon – something that will make the Iranian side inclined towards the USA.

Iran’s Vice President Mohammad Reza Aref during his visit to Saudi Arabia, said that the world is waiting for Trump’s slogans to end wars. This statement by Aref contradicts what Trump did against Iran in the last four years of his tenure, but still Iran hopes Trump delivers on his promises.

Trump got angry with Iran to such an extent that many thought that he was a warmonger, contrary to her slogans. Trump is not belligerent, but the pressure he puts on his rival is not less than the negative consequences of entering into a war. Maybe this time he wants to resolve the previous contradiction.

Only those in Iran, some of the US’s strong competitors in other parts of the world, see Trump’s return as an opportunity rather than a threat, for which Russia is a clear example. In Moscow’s view, Trump is a pacifist Republican who wants peace, and therefore, Moscow seeks to use his presence in the White House.

Meanwhile, Ukraine has fought stubbornly against Moscow with Washington’s money for the past three years and has killed thousands of Russian soldiers with American weapons. When the rulers of the Kremlin look at Trump as an opportunity with this situation, why should the Iranian side deny the necessity of dialogue with him.

Fourth:

Now that a reformist government is at work in Iran, it can be said that the prospects for the relationship between Tehran and Washington under Trump rule will not be as dark as in the past.

Apart from the fact that the reformists are interested in dialogue with the Westerners, especially the US, Masoud Pezeshkian, the president of Iran, cares more than any reformist to move on a calm and safe path in foreign policy.

He did not have a clear slogan in his election campaigns, except for the lifting of sanctions – something that will not be possible without coming to terms with America. But the dark side of the current reality is that Pezeshkian inherited the state of war with Israel, which definitely impacted any kind of talks with the US in regards to bilateral issues. But apparently, he will not allow his government to become a victim of a war.

Of course, there are those in Iran who take Trump’s return as a good omen – they think that while the narrow path of negotiation with the US will be blinded, the 14th government will not be able to fulfill what it has promised. Radical fundamentalists think this way, and Pezeshkian and top officials around him understand their intentions well.

Therefore, Pezeshkian and his close officials are vigilantly monitoring the situation and will respond to even a weak voice from the US that indicates negotiations. Pezeshkian’s 100 days of risky government has become the headline of Iranian media these days and a warm discussion is going on between supporters and opponents.

Middle East

US waives human rights terms on $320m military aid to Egypt

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The US State Department stated that it has waived human rights conditions on more than $300 million in military aid to Egypt.

The statement emphasised that this decision was taken in consideration of Cairo’s “helpful role” since the outbreak of the war against Iran.

Egypt began receiving substantial support from the US after signing a peace treaty with Israel in 1979.

Since the late 1980s, the country has received approximately $1.3 billion annually in US military assistance.

A portion of this aid is subject to conditions related to human rights and democracy, which can be waived on national security grounds.

Withholding funds, including during the administration of former US President Joe Biden, has caused tension between Cairo and Washington in the past.

A letter dated 21 September and addressed to various congressional committees, obtained by Reuters, stated that Secretary of State Marco Rubio “decided to waive the certification requirement under the fiscal year 2025 Foreign Military Financing programme for Egypt of $320 million.”

This waiver was subsequently confirmed by the State Department.

An accompanying memorandum justifying the decision stated that this portion of military aid was “essential for counterterrorism, border security, or non-proliferation programmes, or otherwise important to the national security interests of the United States.”

The memorandum, dated 4 September and bearing Rubio’s signature, stated: “Exercising this waiver authority is critical to the US-Egypt relationship and to US national security priorities, particularly given the helpful role Egypt has played in the aftermath of Operation Epic Fury.”

“Operation Epic Fury” is the designation used by the US military for the campaign launched jointly with Israel against Iran in late February.

The State Department memorandum, whose authenticity was confirmed by two sources in Washington familiar with the letter, did not provide detailed information regarding what was termed Egypt’s “helpful role”.

The State Department’s annual decision on military aid to Egypt typically covers funds allocated for the preceding fiscal year, which ends on 30 September.

A State Department spokesperson stated that Rubio waived the certification in the interest of US national security and that the US continues to cooperate with the Egyptian government across a range of issues.

In an emailed statement, the spokesperson said: “This waiver recognizes the importance of maintaining security cooperation with Egypt at a time of significant security challenges in the region.”

The Egyptian Ministry of Foreign Affairs did not immediately comment on the matter.

The spillover effects of the Iran war have imposed a heavy toll on US security partners, including Egypt.

Owing to rising fuel prices and other disruptions, the Egyptian economy is passing through a difficult period.

Under the Biden administration, the US withheld portions of the annual military allocation on multiple occasions over Egypt’s human rights record.

In 2024, following the Hamas-led 7 October attack on Israel and the subsequent war in Gaza, the Biden administration set aside human rights conditions, disbursing the entire $1.3 billion allocation to Egypt for the first time in its tenure.

Human rights organisations have long accused Egypt, under the administration of President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, of widespread human rights abuses, including torture and enforced disappearances.

This week, Egyptian police detained six journalists from a fact-checking and investigative media outlet, accusing them of spreading false information on behalf of the banned Muslim Brotherhood.

Egyptian authorities state that they have taken steps to address human rights issues. Sisi said stability is paramount and that the government supports human rights by working to provide for basic needs.

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Middle East

Britain expands curbs on arms exports to Israel over Gaza risks

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Britain has significantly broadened its military export restrictions targeting Israel, suspending or rejecting more than 80 licences for items the IDF could use in Gaza.

This figure is nearly triple the number affected when the policy was first introduced in September 2024.

United Kingdom Minister of State for the Middle East Stephen Doughty said that as part of what he described as a “tighter system” for assessing exports to Israel, more than 50 further export applications have been refused since approximately 30 licences were initially suspended.

Under the initial decision taken in September 2024, 30 of roughly 350 licences were suspended after the British government concluded there was a “clear risk” that certain military exports could be used to commit or facilitate serious violations of international humanitarian law in Gaza.

The affected equipment included components for military aircraft, drones, naval systems, and targeting gear.

Doughty said additional measures adopted this month established what he termed a “double safeguard” mechanism within the approvals process.

Export applications must now be assessed both against existing international humanitarian law criteria and in light of Britain’s position on the legality of Israel’s presence in the Palestinian territories.

“We have so far suspended or refused more than 80 licences,” Doughty said, adding that he had personally examined each licence.

Despite the wider restrictions, British-origin parts entering the international F-35 fighter jet supply chain continue to be largely exempt.

The UK government argues that preventing British-made components from entering the global F-35 pool could undermine the programme as a whole and have serious consequences for the security of the UK and its allies.

Direct exports of F-35 parts intended specifically for Israel remain suspended.

Doughty defended maintaining the supply of components via the international programme, arguing that halting it could have severe ramifications for the broader European and allied security architecture.

Foreign Affairs Committee Chair Emily Thornberry challenged this position, arguing that the issue was political rather than purely legal.

Thornberry suggested adopting an approach similar to the Dutch model, under which components entering the international supply chain could be flagged as “not intended for aircraft bound for Israel”.

The initial suspension was implemented in September 2024 by then Foreign Secretary David Lammy.

Lammy stressed at the time that the measure did not constitute an arms embargo and applied solely to items assessed as usable in military operations in Gaza.

Since then, the policy has been tightened further under Prime Minister Andy Burnham.

The expanded export restrictions follow the Burnham government’s adoption of a more confrontational policy toward the Israeli government.

Foreign Secretary Ed Miliband drew sustained applause at the Labour Party’s annual conference in Liverpool after delivering a sharp critique of the Netanyahu government’s policies and defending the decision to ban trade with Israeli settlements in the West Bank.

Accusing Israel of committing war crimes in Gaza, Miliband stated that the British government heard public outrage over the conflict, telling delegates: “We hear you. You were right.”

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Middle East

Netanyahu holds secret UAE talks with Saudi Arabia and Arab officials

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Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met with representatives of Gulf and Arab nations that lack diplomatic ties with Israel, including Saudi Arabia, during his weekend visit to the United Arab Emirates.

Sources close to the gathering told the Israeli newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth on Monday that representatives from Morocco, Libya, Jordan, and Qatar also took part in the meeting.

Netanyahu made a unannounced visit to Abu Dhabi on Sunday, where he met with the country’s leader, Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan.

According to Israeli media, this marked the first time the United Arab Emirates officially confirmed a visit by Netanyahu.

The meeting was arranged by Mossad Director Roman Goffman “at the request of Saudi Arabia, which asked for Israel’s assistance against Houthi attacks in the Red Sea region,” according to Yedioth Ahronoth.

The discussions addressed Iran and the Houthi militia. The newspaper added that the Arab states heard from Israel that “Israel is prepared to assist countries in the region with air defence systems, just as it aided the UAE during the conflict with Iran.”

Conflict in Yemen intensified in September when Ansarullah militiamen launched a rapid offensive that seized Yemen’s entire Red Sea coastline, including the vital maritime corridor of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.

The Yemeni resistance also imposed a blockade on Saudi Arabia’s energy exports and staged multiple attacks against the kingdom.

Saudi Arabia reportedly sought military assistance from the US to counter Ansarullah.

Washington declined to attack the Houthis directly, but announced that it would provide intelligence and targeting support.

Reporting on the same visit, The Jerusalem Post said Netanyahu spent six hours in the UAE and that the principal subject of his discussions with MBZ was Iran.

Citing sources familiar with the matter, the newspaper added that the trip came “after Netanyahu exerted heavy pressure on the United Arab Emirates to arrange a meeting ahead of the Israeli elections on 27 October.”

Separately, the Associated Press, citing a person with direct knowledge of the meeting, reported that Netanyahu’s visit to the UAE was arranged in part to ask MBZ to deny reports that he had warned the Israeli prime minister of an impending Hamas threat prior to 7 October 2023.

According to Israeli media, Netanyahu’s office denied the AP report, issuing the following statement:

“Fake news. The visit focused solely on strengthening ties between the two countries and on regional issues.”

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