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Trump’s shadow looms over Davos as Leyen warns of global economic shifts

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This year’s summit of the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos, Switzerland, began under the shadow of Donald Trump’s potential second term in the White House.

The former president, Donald Trump, is set to address Davos participants via video conference today. Meanwhile, his tariff threats and their potential impact on the global economy have become a central topic of discussion.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen warned in her speech on Tuesday that the global economy is “beginning to break along new lines.” She emphasized that “it is in no one’s interest to sever ties in the global economy” and opposed a “race to the bottom” in global trade, referencing both China and the US.

Leyen stressed that the EU and the US must negotiate to preserve trade relations, given the €1.5 trillion trade volume and the scale of transatlantic investments. “Our priority will therefore be to engage early, discuss common interests, and be ready to negotiate. We will be pragmatic but always stand by our principles. We will defend our interests and uphold our values,” she said.

EU divided on response to Trump

Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo, speaking in Davos, adopted a pragmatic stance, suggesting that the US must address its trade deficit. “Maybe we can buy more from your side and try to link what is economically favorable for us with what is geopolitically favorable for our American allies,” De Croo said.

However, Trump has not yet imposed tariffs on the EU. EU officials told the Financial Times (FT) that they believe business leaders who funded Trump’s campaign have dissuaded him from targeting Europe due to the potential economic fallout. One official noted, “It’s the same agenda as last time. It will be very transactional. He will look at what is good for the US and US industry. Last time, there were many exemptions, even on steel tariffs because they needed our materials.”

A ‘wake-up call’ for Europe

One of the key challenges for Europe in a Trump-led world is to enhance its “strategic autonomy” and competitiveness. A special roundtable discussion hosted by Massimo Andolina, CEO of Philip Morris International Europe, and Claus Strunz, CEO of Euronews, and moderated by Christoph Keese, CEO of World Minds, highlighted the need for Europe to become more competitive, innovative, and united.

Charles Michel, former President of the European Council, warned of the risks of a trade war, stating, “If a trade war starts, it means that everyone will be poorer.”

Some, however, see Trump’s potential return as an opportunity. Laurent Saint-Martin, France’s Minister for Foreign Trade, told CNBC that Trump’s election victory could be a “real opportunity” for Europe. “We have to stay together; it’s very important,” he said, emphasizing Europe’s industrial strength, savings, purchasing power, and the single market. “I think it is time to be more united in terms of industry and trade,” he added.

‘America First, then Europe’?

European business leaders have mixed feelings about Trump’s potential return. Richard Edelman, CEO of global communications firm Edelman, suggested that Trump’s leadership could be “invigorating” for businesses. Meanwhile, ING CEO Steven van Rijswijk described it as a “wake-up call for Europe.”

Finnish President Alexander Stubb emphasized the importance of Europe adopting a pragmatic, day-to-day approach to Trump’s tariff threats. “In foreign policy, especially when you come from a small state and you realize that you are working with whoever the president of the world’s biggest superpower is, you always have to react to a particular situation,” Stubb told CNBC’s Steve Sedgwick at the WEF.

Stubb added that Trump’s desire for the US to remain a superpower means he needs allies, and those allies “come from Europe.” He quipped, “If I simplify it a bit, it’s ‘America first,’ but maybe it should be Europe second, which is just as well.”

Praise for competitiveness

Polish Finance Minister Andrzej Domański argued that Europe’s “best answer” to potential tensions with the US is to restore competitiveness and strengthen its economy. “We know how to do this, and we will do it step by step. Poland’s relations with the US are very, very good, and as you said, we buy a lot of US military equipment—tanks, fighter jets. In fact, we buy everything you can think of,” Domański said.

However, he stressed that the EU “needs to be united” in its relations with the US.

Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez also emphasized the importance of strengthening transatlantic relations, warning that a trade war with the US would be a “zero-sum game.” “We share a strong transatlantic bond… our economies are very interconnected, and I believe that a trade war is in the interest of neither the United States nor the European Union,” Sánchez told CNBC.

He added, “We need to focus on how to strengthen our transatlantic relationship, which is more important now than ever.”

DIPLOMACY

US, Britain, and Türkiye excluded from EU armament fund

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US, UK, and Turkish arms companies will be excluded from the EU’s new €150 billion defense fund unless their countries sign defense and security agreements with Brussels.

According to the Financial Times (FT), officials stated on Wednesday that the planned fund for arms spending would only be open to EU defense companies and those from third countries that have defense agreements with the bloc.

Officials added that advanced weapons systems where a third country has “design authority” (restrictions on construction or the use of specific components) or controls the end-use would also be excluded from the fund.

This would exclude the US Patriot air and missile defense platform, manufactured by defense company RTX, and other US weapons systems where Washington has restrictions on where they can be used.

This policy is seen as a victory for France and other countries that have called for a “Buy European” approach to the continent’s defense investments, amid fears caused by President Donald Trump regarding the long-term reliability of the US as a defense partner and supplier.

At least 65% of the products’ costs must be spent in the EU, Norway, and Ukraine. EU member states will not be able to spend this money on products “where the use or destination of the weapon can be controlled.”

One official said that it would be a real problem if equipment purchased by countries could not be used because a third country objected.

The UK has lobbied extensively to be involved in this initiative, particularly given its key role in the European “coalition of the willing,” which aims to strengthen the continent’s defense capabilities.

UK defense companies such as BAE Systems and Babcock International are deeply integrated into the defense industries of EU countries like Italy and Sweden.

Officials stated that if third countries like the US, Britain, and Türkiye want to participate in this initiative, they must sign a defense and security partnership with the EU.

Negotiations for such an agreement between London and Brussels have begun but have been stalled by demands for a larger EU-UK agreement that includes contentious issues such as fishing rights and immigration.

Excluding Britain and Türkiye could create significant distress for major European defense companies with close ties to manufacturers or suppliers in these markets.

When asked about his country’s position on the new EU fund rules on Tuesday, a British official said, “We stand ready to work together on European defense in the interests of wider European security, to avoid fragmentation in European defense markets, and to create legal structures that allow member states to partner with third countries.”

A senior UK defense sector official said this was a “significant concern,” adding, “We see a huge amount of opportunity, and it is right that the UK is seen as part of Europe. But if the EU and particularly France are going to play this with a transactional approach, it undermines a common and united European philosophy in terms of defense and security.”

France’s previous efforts to limit defense spending to only EU companies faced strong resistance from countries such as Germany, Italy, Sweden, and the Netherlands, which have close ties with defense manufacturers outside the EU.

The proposal needs to be approved by a majority of EU countries. Officials said that under the plan’s terms, EU countries can spend the funds on products using components from Norway, South Korea, Japan, Albania, Moldova, North Macedonia, and Ukraine.

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World media cover İmamoğlu arrest amid Turkish turmoil

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The detention of Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu early this morning, amid allegations of “supporting terrorism through a city consensus” and “corruption,” continues to resonate globally.

In Western media, İmamoğlu’s detention is largely viewed as a move ahead of potential presidential elections and against President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s most significant rival.

For example, the Financial Times, in its article titled “Turkish police detain Erdoğan’s main political rival,” stated, “State media said İmamoğlu’s detention on Wednesday was part of an investigation into alleged terror links, while the opposition called the move a ‘coup attempt,’ and the arrest sent the Turkish currency and markets tumbling.”

Investment management firm T Rowe Price analyst Tomasz Wieladek told the FT that the detention was “a wake-up call for everyone.”

Wieladek suggested that the Turkish Central Bank has “limited firepower” to defend the lira, adding, “Assets will probably continue to be sold off further.”

Bloomberg reported that Turkish banks sold $8 billion to support the lira from morning to midday.

Highlighting the market turmoil since morning, Bloomberg noted in another report, “Turkish markets were rattled on Wednesday after the detention of a top rival to President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, stoking concern that political turmoil risks undermining recent investor-friendly economic policies.”

Nick Rees, macro research director at Monex Europe in London, was quoted in the report, saying, “This has been a bit of a shock to the system. Markets had become increasingly complacent, and now that spell has been broken, dramatic consequences are unfolding as traders reprice Türkiye’s political risk premiums.”

Henrik Gullberg from Coex Partners said the magnitude of the move was “surprising,” but news of political pressure was less so, adding, “Practically, I’m not sure this changes much in terms of market-sensitive economic policies.”

The report also noted that the Borsa Istanbul 100 Index fell by approximately 7% at the opening, while the yield on 10-year government bonds increased by 139 basis points to 29.58%.

Germany’s Der Spiegel, in its article titled “Turkish authorities arrest Erdoğan’s most important opponent,” stated, “Turkish authorities are expanding their repressive measures against Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu.”

The report highlights that İmamoğlu, along with Ankara Metropolitan Municipality Mayor Mansur Yavaş, is seen as Erdoğan’s strongest rival.

According to DW Turkish, İmamoğlu’s detention also resonated widely in German politics. The development was assessed as an “attempt by Erdoğan to disable his main rival” and warned that it could have serious consequences.

SPD Co-Chairman Lars Klingbeil harshly criticized İmamoğlu’s detention as a “severe attack on democracy in Türkiye.”

Klingbeil stated, “The Turkish government is thus showing that it no longer wants fair elections and an independent rule of law. The steps taken are disproportionate and destroy trust and credibility. This will have dramatic consequences for the entire country.”

Max Lucks, a member of the German Federal Parliament’s Foreign Affairs Committee and Chairman of the German-Turkish Parliamentary Group, also described İmamoğlu’s detention as an attack on fair elections and fair competition in light of the presidential elections.

The British The Times, in its article titled “Istanbul Mayor arrested as Erdoğan cracks down on election rivals,” stated, “Protests have been banned across the city after the arrest of Ekrem İmamoğlu, seen as the Turkish leader’s biggest threat for the presidency.”

A report in Tokyo-based Nikkei Asia also claimed that Turkish authorities had detained “Erdoğan’s main rival,” noting that the opposition described the move as a “coup.”

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Turkish banks sell $8 billion to support lira after Imamoglu detention

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Bloomberg, citing individuals with direct knowledge of the matter, reported that Turkish credit institutions sold approximately $8 billion by noon on Wednesday to support the lira after the currency fell by around 11% following the detention of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu.

The individuals, who requested anonymity due to the sensitivity of the matter, stated that the intervention in the lira market was carried out through multiple credit institutions.

Bloomberg could not obtain comment from the Central Bank.

As of 12:45 PM, the lira was trading at 38.8565 per dollar, down 5.5%.

Following market turmoil, Finance Minister Mehmet Simsek tweeted, “Everything necessary is being done to ensure the healthy functioning of the markets. The economic program we are implementing continues with determination.”

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